2025 年以来，黄金与美股的走势呈现出显著的分化与联动特征，两者的博弈背后折射出全球经济秩序的深刻变迁。黄金在突破 3500 美元 / 盎司后剧烈震 荡，而美股则在关税冲击与衰退预期中艰难前行，这种分化既是短期情绪的宣泄，更是长期结构性矛盾的集中爆发。 近期黄金市场的剧烈波动，本质上是多重力量角力的结果。4 月国际金价突破 3500 美元 / 盎司后，5 月出现 7% 的回调，但随后又迅速反弹至 3380 美元， 显示多空博弈的白热化。这种波动背后存在三重逻辑： 中东局势升级、俄乌冲突延宕以及特朗普政府对华加征 145% 关税的政策落地，使得全球供应链面临重构压力。黄金作为传统避险资产，在不确定性中成为 资金的 "避风港"。例如，特朗普关税政策落地后，金价一度跳升，尽管后续政策有所调整，但黄金的避险属性已被市场重新定价。 1. 关税政策的反噬效应 特朗普的 "对等关税" 政策导致美国进口成本上升，企业盈利承压。经济学家警告，若政策持续，2025年美国 GDP 可能下降 4%，陷入技术性衰退。零售 业、休闲酒店业就业数据转弱，显示关税已对实体经济造成实质性冲击。与此同时，美国消费者信心指数降至 52.2，未来 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for multiple companies in the pharmaceutical sector, including Junshi Biosciences, Hualan Biological Engineering, and others [4]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the investment opportunities in innovative drugs against the backdrop of global asset rebalancing, particularly focusing on KRAS G12C mutation in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) [2][8]. - It emphasizes the potential for KRAS G12C inhibitors to advance to first-line treatment for NSCLC, with an estimated 30% of KRAS mutations in NSCLC being of the G12C subtype, leading to approximately 30,000 new cases annually in China [5][17]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Viewpoints and Investment Recommendations - KRAS G12C inhibitors are progressing towards first-line treatment for NSCLC, with current standard therapies being PD1 ± chemotherapy [18]. - The report suggests focusing on innovative drugs, particularly in the context of increased liquidity and risk appetite in the market, with significant data releases expected from major conferences [6][32]. 2. Pharmaceutical Industry Market Performance - The pharmaceutical sector saw a 1.01% increase, slightly underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.00 percentage points [39]. - Sub-sectors such as drug packaging and medical devices performed well, while innovative drugs lagged behind [39]. 3. Company Dynamics - Notable company activities include the approval of new drugs and clinical trial advancements, such as the successful Phase III trials for AstraZeneca's Breztri and Genmab's Epcoritamab [46]. - Companies like Junshi Biosciences and Innovent Biologics are highlighted for their leading positions in the KRAS G12C inhibitor market [22][23]. 4. Industry Dynamics - The report discusses the impact of patent expirations on raw material demand, projecting a significant increase in sales due to the expiration of patents for top-selling small molecule drugs [35]. - It also notes the improvement in demand for raw materials and the end of inventory destocking phases, suggesting a positive outlook for the raw material sector [35].