Group 1 - The CEO of General Electric Aviation stated that the company cannot fully offset the pressure from tariffs on its own [1] - The company is currently in communication with airlines regarding the tariff impacts [1]

Group 1: New Zealand and Australia Economic Outlook - Westpac Bank expects the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to keep the official cash rate unchanged in July, adopting a wait-and-see approach for future rate adjustments [1] - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand may allow the market to interpret potential rate changes and will decide based on economic data released before the August monetary policy statement [1] - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand might indicate that economic activity in Q1 2025 could exceed expectations, although subsequent indicators show a slowdown in economic momentum [1] - The Reserve Bank of Australia did not cut rates in July as widely anticipated, but future rate cuts remain a possibility, contingent on upcoming inflation data [2] - The Reserve Bank of Australia stated that inflation risks have become more balanced, suggesting that while there is no immediate pressure to cut rates, it may be delayed rather than canceled [2] Group 2: Japan's Economic Challenges - Mizuho Securities analysts suggest that the Bank of Japan should maintain its current policy amid external uncertainties, particularly regarding U.S. tariffs [3] - The potential for a 25% tariff on Japanese imports by the U.S. starting August 1 adds uncertainty and could negatively impact Japan's exports and overall economic performance [3] - Mitsubishi UFJ Securities economists believe that U.S. tariffs will challenge Japan's economy, especially in exports and capital investment, prompting the government to consider broader economic stimulus measures [3] - Japan's central bank plans to slow the pace of its bond purchase reduction starting April 2026, considering market stability and participant feedback [3] Group 3: Singapore's Economic Performance - DBS Group economists indicate that Singapore's economy may avoid technical recession in Q2 2025 due to early shipments by export companies, which temporarily supported actual export growth [4] - While short-term export data appears strong due to early deliveries, long-term challenges loom for Singapore's export sectors, particularly electronics and biopharmaceutical manufacturing, due to potential U.S. tariff measures [4]

Core Insights - The geopolitical tensions between Iran and Israel have increased demand for safe-haven assets, yet a strong US dollar has limited the price increase of gold [1][2] - Spot gold rose by 0.14% to $3389.49 per ounce, while spot silver surged to a 13-year high, increasing by 2.32% to $37.13 per ounce [1][2] Economic Indicators - May retail sales data showed a larger-than-expected decline of 0.9% month-on-month, marking the largest drop in four months, indicating consumer caution amid trade uncertainties and tariff pressures [3] - Revenue from automobile and parts dealers fell by 3.5%, while gas station revenue decreased by 2.0%, and service sector indicators also showed a downturn [3] - Core retail sales increased by 0.4%, suggesting that consumer spending is still supported by robust wages, but overall economic slowdown signals cannot be ignored [3] Market Analysis - Michael Pearce, Deputy Chief Economist at Oxford Economics, noted that tariffs have distorted the timing of commodity purchases, and the risk of economic slowdown is increasing in the second half of the year [3] - Typically, economic uncertainty benefits gold prices; however, the strong performance of the dollar has constrained the potential for gold price increases [3]

Core Insights - Consumer confidence in the U.S. has improved for the first time in six months, rising by 16% compared to the previous month, but remains approximately 20% lower than in December 2024, when confidence rebounded post-election [1][1][1] Summary by Categories Consumer Confidence - All five components of the consumer confidence index have increased, with particularly significant gains in short-term and long-term expectations regarding business conditions, aligning with perceptions of eased tariff pressures [1][1] Economic Outlook - Consumers appear to have partially recovered from the impact of high tariffs announced in April and subsequent policy fluctuations, yet they still perceive widespread downside risks to the economy [1][1] Financial Sentiment - Despite the noticeable improvement in economic conditions this month, consumers maintain a cautious and worried outlook regarding the economy, with views on business conditions, personal financial situations, commodity purchasing conditions, labor market, and stock market all significantly lower than six months ago [1][1][1]

Group 1: PMI Data Overview - The manufacturing PMI for May is 49.5, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from April[2] - The non-manufacturing PMI is 50.3, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from April[2] - Overall PMI data shows improvement, indicating reduced economic pressure compared to April[3] Group 2: Production and Demand Insights - Production index rose to 50.7, above the neutral line, while demand recovery was less pronounced[4] - New orders increased by 0.6 percentage points to 49.8, and new export orders rose by 2.8 percentage points to 47.5[4] - The "production-demand gap" expanded by 0.3 percentage points to 0.9 percentage points[4] Group 3: Inventory and Price Trends - Raw material inventory increased by 0.4 percentage points to 47.4, while finished goods inventory decreased by 0.8 percentage points to 46.5[5] - Price indicators have declined for three consecutive months, with purchasing prices down 0.1 percentage points to 46.9[5] - Factory gate prices also fell by 0.1 percentage points to 44.7, indicating ongoing profit pressure for enterprises[5] Group 4: Non-Manufacturing Sector Performance - Non-manufacturing PMI slightly decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 50.3, underperforming compared to historical averages[10] - Consumer services sector showed resilience, increasing by 2.3 percentage points to 51.6, while production services declined[11] - Construction PMI fell by 0.9 percentage points to 51.0, with civil engineering improving but housing construction declining[10]

特朗普频频施压库克：苹果必须本土制造！ 苹果面临的挑战远比表面看起来更加复杂。 苹果美股盘前跳水，现跌近4%，特朗普威胁对苹果征税。 目前，苹果在美国完全没有智能手机生产线。虽然苹果此前承诺在美国雇用更多工人，并承诺在未来四 年内在美国投资数十亿美元，但要将整个iPhone生产线迁移到美国，无论从技术、成本还是时间角度都 面临巨大挑战。 23日周五，据媒体报道，特朗普在Truth Social上发帖称，他早就告诉苹果CEO蒂姆·库克希望他在"美国 销售的iPhone将在美国制造和生产"，而不是印度或其他地方。 "如果不是这样，苹果必须向美国支付至少25%的关税。" 据参考消息网5月16日报道，特朗普15日在卡塔尔首都多哈与企业高管会面时说： "昨天我对库克有点不满。我对他说，蒂姆你是我的朋友，我对你非常好，你带着5000亿美元来这里。 但现在我听说你在印度各地建厂，我不希望你在印度建厂。因为印度是世界上关税最高的国家之一。" 15日，特朗普还曾透露他已与库克进行了交谈，并声称，作为这次谈话的结果，苹果将"增加他们在美 国的生产"。 特朗普对Tim Cook这一明显带有胁迫性质的言论已经在华尔街引起警觉。Hun ...

2025 年 5 月 15 日 总量研究 我国哪些产品可以无惧关税压力？ ——《见微知著》第二十二篇 作者 分析师：高瑞东 执业证书编号：S0930520120002 010-56513066 gaoruidong@ebscn.com 分析师：周可 执业证书编号：S0930524120001 021-52523677 zhouke@ebscn.com 相关研报 以斗争求合作，中方打到美方筹码底线—— 《大国博弈》系列第八十五篇（2025-05-12） 出口为何展现韧性？——2025年4月进出口 数据点评（2025-05-10） 关税压力将如何扰动出口？——2025年3月 进出口数据点评（2025-04-14） 要点 核心观点： 当前美国对自华进口关税税率整体水平大概在 47.1%-49.9%。在新关税水平下，我 国产品仍然具备较强的价格优势。美自华进口单价低于自全世界（除中国外）进口 单价的产品种类占比小幅下降 7.9 个百分点至 54.5%。毛毯、动植物油脂、人造纤 维针织品、吸尘器、椅子、手套、壁挂式空调、鞋靴、运动用品、床上用品等细分 产品的价格优势或面临挑战。 由于前期积压订单释放以及美国进入圣诞备货 ...

Core Insights - Intel is reportedly negotiating a large-scale wafer foundry contract with Microsoft for the production of chips using the 18A advanced process, attracting interest from tech giants like NVIDIA and Google, challenging TSMC's dominance [1] - The 18A process is described as potentially being an "iPhone moment" for the semiconductor industry, with Intel aiming to position it as an alternative to TSMC's N2 process [1] - Intel's 18A process is expected to enter stable mass production in the second half of this year, with performance claims comparable to TSMC's N2 process [1][2] Company Developments - Intel's new CEO, Pat Gelsinger, is focusing on electronic design automation (EDA), packaging, and wafer foundry services as part of the company's strategic vision [1] - The company is currently in the risk trial production phase for the 18A process, with expectations to transition to mass production within the year [1] Industry Context - The interest from major U.S. tech companies in the 18A process is driven by the need to mitigate geopolitical risks and alleviate tariff pressures, especially in light of potential semiconductor tariffs proposed by Trump [2] - Compared to TSMC and Samsung, Intel's supply chain appears to be more diversified, which could provide a geopolitical advantage if the 18A process achieves stable mass production [2]

索尼可能会根据最终关税和公司决策，受到G&NS营业利润4-53%的负面影响。如果公司完全将145%的 关税(大多数PS5在中国生产)转嫁给消费者，新价格可能会阻止消费者购买，导致PS5生命周期后半段的 安装基础大幅降低，从而损害其软件销售。 另一方面，吸收关税，即使是部分吸收，也可能意味着公司盈利能力的急剧侵蚀。在最好的情况下，公 司将在关税实施前的假期季节使用其积累的库存，并将生产转移到其他国家以尽量减少关税影响。 电子业务长期以来一直不景气，但瑞银看到了底部的迹象。由于大量投资，该行预计图像传感器业务将 实现增长。瑞银还预计游戏、电影和音乐将实现稳步增长。 关税压力依然存在 智通财经APP获悉，瑞银最新研报指出，Take Two旗下《侠盗猎车手6》（GTA6）从2025年秋季推迟至 2026年5月发布，将对索尼(SONY.US)造成超800亿日元（约合5.2亿美元）的营业利润冲击，相当于市 场对索尼2026财年第三季度预期利润的5%。该游戏原被视为2025年最大IP与索尼游戏业务核心催化 剂。瑞银给予索尼"买入"评级，目标价4300日元。 此前GTA6预计在2026财年全球销量将达3500-4000万份， ...

Core Viewpoint - Disney's Q2 performance exceeded expectations, driven by strong results in theme parks and streaming services, leading to an upward revision of the full-year profit forecast [1][5]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Disney reported Q2 revenue of $23.62 billion, surpassing the expected $23.05 billion, with a year-over-year growth of 7% [1]. - Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) for Q2 were $1.45, exceeding the forecast of $1.20, and reflecting a significant year-over-year increase of 20% [1]. - The company raised its full-year adjusted EPS forecast to a growth of 16% to $5.75, above the market expectation of $5.44, and projected operating cash flow of $17 billion, higher than the previous estimate of $15 billion [1]. Group 2: Business Segments Performance - The theme park segment showed strong performance, with revenue growth of 9% to $2.49 billion, primarily driven by increased visitors in California and Florida parks [3]. - The direct-to-consumer (DTC) streaming segment, including Disney+ and Hulu, achieved profitability for the fourth consecutive quarter, with profits reaching $336 million, significantly up from $47 million in the previous year [3]. - Disney+ added 1.4 million subscribers in the quarter, exceeding analyst expectations of a 1.25 million subscriber loss, despite a previous decline of 700,000 subscribers due to price increases [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Disney's CEO expressed confidence in the company's future, despite facing challenges such as tariff pressures from potential 100% tariffs on foreign-made films [5][7]. - The company is actively repurchasing shares, having bought back $1.8 billion worth of stock this fiscal year, and expects park revenue to grow by 6% to 8% in fiscal year 2025 [6]. - Disney aims to generate $1 billion from streaming services this year and continues to focus on enhancing the profitability of its online platforms [6].