一周内，两位美联储官员暗示最快7月降息——市场焦点重新集中至美联储是否会在货币政策问题上 提前转向。 受此影响，美股盘中拉升，三大股指涨幅接近1%。 北京时间24日晚10点，美联储主席鲍威尔将开启国会听证会之行，他在降息问题上的态度将受到更 多关注。同时，下月议息会议前的两份通胀报告的重要性也在上升。 2025.06. 24 本文字数：2169，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 樊志菁 美联储主席鲍威尔上周在议息会议后的新闻发布会上表示，倾向于耐心等待，看看关税如何影响通货 膨胀和更广泛的美国经济。"目前，我们完全有能力等待更多关于经济可能走向的信息，然后再考虑 对我们的政策进行任何调整。" 美联储鸽派声音增加 在美联储上周一致投票决定维持利率不变后，7月似乎并不是潜在的降息窗口，美联储担心与关税相 关的通胀可能再次上升。 不过美联储理事沃勒随后成为首位力挺尽快降息的官员。 他20日表示，最近的价格上涨一直温和， 而他看到了就业市场的一些令人担忧的迹象，例如最近大学毕业生的高失业率。沃勒重申了此前的观 点，美联储应该审视关税带来的一次性价格上涨，应对一直在降温的通胀基本趋势。 沃勒认为，利率可能仍远高于 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the transition into a "new phase" of transformation and a "reform period" for policies, highlighting external shocks as either obstacles or opportunities [5] - It emphasizes the end of the "American exceptionalism" narrative, questioning which aspects are mere storytelling versus actual trends [8] - The impact of tariffs on the U.S. economy is identified as a major contradiction for the second half of the year, with a focus on inflation trends [9] Deep Dive Topics - The mid-year outlook indicates a significant shift in policy dynamics, with a focus on how "anti-involution" and the service industry can find solutions [5] - The macro monthly report anticipates changes in policies related to tariffs, tax cuts, and monetary policy, particularly in June [11] - The article on inbound tourism highlights the rapid increase in countries eligible for visa-free entry, reflecting a broader trend of opening up [15] Economic Data Insights - The actual GDP year-on-year growth rates are projected to be 5.2% for 2023 and 5.0% for 2024, with nominal GDP growth rates of 4.7% and 4.2% respectively [6] - Fixed asset investment is expected to show a cumulative year-on-year growth of 3.0% in 2023, with a slight increase to 3.2% in 2024 [6] - The article notes a significant decline in real estate investment, projected at -10.6% for 2024 [6] Trade and Employment Insights - The article discusses the shift in export strategies, moving from emerging markets to a focus on the U.S. market [17] - It highlights the strong performance of U.S. non-farm employment, which exceeded expectations [22] - The ongoing U.S.-China trade negotiations are noted, with significant trade deficits reported for various countries, including a $295.4 billion deficit with China [23] Policy and Market Trends - The article suggests that new policy tools for stabilizing growth are anticipated, with a focus on the potential emergence of innovative financial instruments [14] - The domestic shipping rates on the U.S.-West Coast are reported to be increasing, indicating a recovery in shipping prices [24] - The communication between Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Trump emphasizes the importance of maintaining a cooperative relationship amid ongoing trade discussions [27][28]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that the Bank of Japan, led by Governor Kazuo Ueda, is considering the impact of tariffs on the economy in its price outlook [1] - The Bank of Japan is incorporating various opinions into its assessment of government bond purchases scheduled for June [1]

Summary of Conference Call on Tariffs and Economic Impact in China Industry Overview - The discussion focuses on the impact of tariffs on the Chinese economy and the response strategies from Beijing, particularly in the context of US-China trade relations [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments Current Tariff Situation - The current US-China tariffs are at a high level, with expectations that effective tax rates will gradually decrease as negotiations progress [2][3]. - The anticipated effective tariff rate for the US is projected to be 45% by 2025, down from 11% plus exemptions currently in place [2]. Economic Impact of Tariffs - Tariffs significantly affect exports, with varying impacts based on different tariff levels. An additional 34% tariff could lead to a 34% annual decline in exports to the US, while maintaining the current 96% tariff could result in a 70% decline [3][4]. - The overall impact of tariffs is expected to lower the GDP growth forecast for 2025 by 0.5 percentage points [2][3]. Stimulus Policy Measures - In Q2 2025, the government plans to accelerate the issuance and utilization of government bonds and provide unemployment insurance tax refunds to exporters [5]. - A supplementary fiscal plan of 1-1.5 trillion yuan is expected to be introduced in the second half of 2025, focusing on infrastructure and technology investments [5][6]. Economic Growth Forecast - GDP growth is projected to be below 4.5% in Q2 2025, a decline of 1 percentage point from Q1 2025 [6]. - By Q4 2025, actual GDP growth is expected to drop to 3.7%, with nominal GDP growth potentially falling below 3% [5][6]. Additional Important Insights - The government is cautious in its economic stimulus approach, with a gradual shift from investment-driven policies to consumption-driven strategies, although investment remains the primary focus [6][8]. - The uncertainty surrounding the multiplier effect of consumption stimulus makes it challenging for the government to pivot quickly from investment to consumption [8]. - Potential new growth areas for the Chinese economy include green energy sectors such as electric vehicles and renewable energy, as well as the integration of artificial intelligence with traditional industries [9]. Conclusion - The ongoing high tariffs and the cautious approach of the Chinese government in implementing stimulus measures indicate a challenging economic environment ahead, with significant implications for GDP growth and export performance [1][2][6].

Group 1: Overview of Tariff Increases - The U.S. has announced a "reciprocal tariff" plan, imposing a baseline 10% tariff on all imports, with additional tariffs based on the estimated tariffs of trade partners [1][19] - The overall tariff rate is expected to increase by approximately 18.2%, with a potential increase of about 13.9% when excluding products covered by Section 232 [3][21] - The highest tariff rates are imposed on Cambodia (49%), Vietnam (46%), and Iraq (39%), with China facing a 34% tariff [3][21] Group 2: Potential for Further Tariff Increases - There is an estimated additional tariff increase potential of 16.7% based on the U.S. Trade Representative's calculations, although the space for further increases on China may be limited due to already high effective rates [4][25] Group 3: Impact on Inflation - The short-term inflation impact in the U.S. is estimated to rise by approximately 0.7% to 1.6% due to the new tariffs, with a median estimate of 1.2% [5][31] - In China, the tariffs could lead to a decrease in export growth by 3.5% to 11%, potentially dragging down the Producer Price Index (PPI) by 0.7% to 2.2% [6][35] Group 4: Fiscal Revenue from Tariffs - The tariffs are projected to generate between $349.9 billion to $503.5 billion annually, accumulating to approximately $3.5 trillion to $5 trillion over the next decade [7][37] Group 5: GDP Impact - The tariffs are expected to reduce U.S. GDP by approximately 0.2% to 1.5%, with financial shocks potentially increasing this impact [8][40] - For the Eurozone, the GDP impact from the tariffs is estimated to be between -0.06% and -1%, with a median impact of around 0.5% [9][41] Group 6: Effects on Chinese Exports and GDP - Cumulatively, tariffs on China have reached 54%, with the latest increase of 34% expected to negatively impact Chinese exports by 3.5% to 11% [10][44] - The overall impact on China's GDP is estimated to be between -0.25% and -0.9% due to the tariffs [13][46] Group 7: Structural Impact on Export Products - Following the tariff increases, the proportion of Chinese exports that maintain a comparative advantage is expected to drop to 25.4% [14] - Specific product categories, such as non-knitted clothing and certain metals, may lose their price advantage due to the new tariffs [14] Group 8: Future Considerations - Ongoing negotiations and potential retaliatory measures from trade partners are critical factors to monitor, as the aggressive tariff strategy may exert pressure on the U.S. economy [15] - The impact of tariffs on specific industries, such as semiconductors and pharmaceuticals, remains to be fully assessed [15][16] Group 9: International Expectations - International forecasts indicate a pessimistic outlook for overall economic performance, with concerns about "stagflation" and the negative effects of policy uncertainty [16] - Industry-specific impacts, particularly on textiles and footwear in ASEAN countries, are anticipated to be significant [16]