1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - The soybean market is expected to continue a moderately strong and volatile trend, with low - protein soybean prices in the Northeast stabilizing and high - protein soybeans in short supply. The 100% bid - ask success rate of CGSGB's soybean transactions shows market demand support [1] - Corn is expected to have wide - range fluctuations before the Spring Festival. If there is a significant decline, it can be considered for buying at low prices. In the Northeast, farmers' selling has increased, while feed and deep - processing plants have increased their inventory [1] - In the first half of 2026, the inventory of laying hens is expected to decline monthly, with the largest decline in March and April. Due to a marginal increase in inventory compared to the second half of last year, excessive short - selling is not recommended [2] - The de - capacity of the pig industry is still ongoing. The supply of live pigs around the Spring Festival is expected to be large, and the near - term and spot prices are unlikely to rise continuously. The far - term market depends on capacity reduction in the past two months and the number of sows [3] 3. Key Points by Commodity Soybean - Low - protein soybean prices in the Northeast are stable, with tight supply and limited trading. High - protein soybeans are in short supply, with 39% protein content soybeans priced around 2.2 yuan per catty. CGSGB's soybean bid - ask success rate was 100% for 24,099 tons, indicating market demand support, and a moderately strong and volatile trend is expected [1] Corn - In the Northeast, farmers' selling has increased after the twelfth lunar month. Feed and deep - processing plants have a rigid demand for pre - holiday stocking, and some have increased their purchasing enthusiasm. However, due to the high price of dry corn, the inventory days of mainstream plants have increased to over 30 days. A wide - range pre - holiday fluctuation is expected, and buying at low prices can be considered if there is a significant decline [1] Egg - Based on chick replenishment data, the inventory of laying hens will decline monthly in the first half of 2026, with the largest decline in March and April due to low replenishment and accelerated old - hen culling. The decline will narrow in May as the industry enters a supply - demand adjustment period. Excessive short - selling is not recommended due to a marginal increase in inventory [2] Pig - At the end of 2025, the inventory of breeding sows was 39.61 million, a decrease of 1.16 million or 2.9%, and 101.6% of the normal level. In 2025, the national pig slaughter was 719.73 million, an increase of 17.16 million or 2.4%. The year - end inventory was 429.67 million, an increase of 2.24 million or 0.5%. The de - capacity is ongoing, and the near - term and spot prices are unlikely to rise continuously around the Spring Festival. The far - term market depends on recent capacity reduction and sow numbers [2][3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Northeast low - protein soybean prices are stable, supply is tightening, high - protein soybeans are in short supply. With 100% bid - ask success rate of 24099 tons of CGSCC soybeans, soybeans are expected to continue a strong and volatile trend [1] - In the corn market, farmers in Northeast China are more willing to sell after the twelfth lunar month. Feed and deep - processing plants have pre - holiday stocking needs, but with sufficient inventory, the market is cautious. Corn is expected to fluctuate widely before the Spring Festival, and buying on dips can be considered if there is a significant decline [1] - In the first half of 2026, the inventory of laying hens will decline monthly, with significant drops in March and April and a narrowing decline in May. Due to a marginal improvement in inventory, excessive short - selling is not recommended [2] - At the end of 2025, the inventory of breeding sows decreased by 2.9%, and the inventory of live pigs increased by 0.5%. The supply of live pigs around the Spring Festival is expected to be large, and the near - term and spot prices are unlikely to rise continuously. The far - term market depends on recent capacity reduction and the number of breeding sows [2][3] Summary by Related Categories Soybean - Northeast low - protein soybean prices are stable, high - protein soybeans are in short supply, with some 39% protein soybeans at around 2.2 yuan per catty. The 100% bid - ask success rate of 24099 tons of CGSCC soybeans shows market demand support, and soybeans are expected to be strongly volatile [1] Corn - In Northeast China, farmers' willingness to sell increases after the twelfth lunar month, and feed and deep - processing plants have pre - holiday stocking needs. However, with sufficient inventory (more than 30 days), the market is cautious. Corn is expected to fluctuate widely before the Spring Festival, and buying on dips can be considered for significant drops [1] Egg - From chicken - chick replenishment data, the inventory of laying hens will decline monthly in H1 2026, with significant drops in March and April due to low replenishment and accelerated old - hen culling. The decline narrows in May. Due to a marginal improvement in inventory, excessive short - selling is not recommended [2] Pig - At the end of 2025, the inventory of breeding sows was 39.61 million, a decrease of 1.16 million or 2.9%, and 101.6% of the normal level; the number of live pigs sold was 719.73 million, an increase of 17.16 million or 2.4%, and the inventory of live pigs was 429.67 million, an increase of 2.24 million or 0.5%. The supply around the Spring Festival is large, and near - term and spot prices are unlikely to rise continuously. The far - term market depends on recent capacity reduction and the number of breeding sows [2][3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic soybean spot market price is stable with a slight upward trend, and it is expected to continue the oscillatory trend [1]. - The domestic corn spot market atmosphere is strong, with prices rising in the north and falling slightly in the south. It is recommended to view it as wide - range oscillation before the Spring Festival, and consider buying on dips if there is a significant decline [1]. - The egg - laying hen inventory in the first half of 2026 will decline monthly, with significant drops in March and April and a narrowing decline in May. It is not recommended to be overly bearish [2]. - The pig de - capacity process is ongoing. The spot supply is expected to be large around the Spring Festival, and it is difficult for near - month and spot prices to rise continuously. Far - month prices depend on capacity reduction in the past two months and the number of sows [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean - The domestic soybean spot market price is stable with a slight upward trend. Northeast产区 prices are stable, farmers' asking prices are unchanged, and most traders buy casually and consume inventory. Multi - platform soybean auctions attract attention and have good transactions. There is pre - Spring Festival replenishment demand, but it is difficult for traders to raise prices [1]. Corn - The domestic corn spot market atmosphere is strong, especially in the Northeast. The average purchase price of deep - processing enterprises in the Northeast increased by 0.7% week - on - week, in North China by 0.6% week - on - week, in northern ports by 0.66% week - on - week, and decreased by 0.4% in southern ports week - on - week. The strong pattern weakens from north to south and from production areas to sales areas. Deep - processing enterprises still have pre - holiday replenishment demand, and the increase in grassroots supply does not form pressure. There are concerns about the upside space due to the price inversion between production and sales areas and continuous reserve auctions. It is recommended to view it as wide - range oscillation before the Spring Festival and consider buying on dips if there is a significant decline [1]. Egg - Based on chick - replenishment data, the inventory of egg - laying hens in the first half of 2026 will decline monthly. The inventory decline is most significant in March and April due to low previous chick - replenishment and accelerated culling of old hens. In May, the decline narrows, and the industry enters a supply - demand adjustment transition period. The market is fluctuating, and there is no obvious driving factor. Since the inventory margin has improved slightly compared to the second half of last year, it is not recommended to be overly bearish [2]. Pig - At the end of 2025, the inventory of breeding sows was 39.61 million, a decrease of 1.16 million or 2.9%, and it was 101.6% of the normal reserve. In October 2025, the sow inventory was 39.9 million. In 2025, the national pig slaughter was 719.73 million, an increase of 17.16 million or 2.4%. At the end of 2025, the national pig inventory was 429.67 million, an increase of 2.24 million or 0.5%. The pig de - capacity process is ongoing. The spot supply is expected to be large around the Spring Festival. The demand has increased, but it is difficult for near - month and spot prices to rise continuously. Far - month prices depend on capacity reduction in the past two months and the number of sows [2][3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The domestic soybean spot market price shows a stable and slightly stronger trend, and it is estimated to continue the volatile trend [1] - The bullish sentiment in the corn market continues to heat up, and the short - term upward trend is expected to slow down. It is recommended to view it as a wide - range shock before the Spring Festival, and consider buying on dips if there is a large pullback [1] - The egg price has soared, and the egg - laying chicken farming industry has shown signs of profit repair. There is no obvious driving force at present, and it is not recommended to be overly bearish [2] - The pig de - capacity is still ongoing. It is estimated that the spot supply around the Spring Festival is still large, and the near - month and spot prices are difficult to rise continuously. The far - month prices need to pay attention to the capacity reduction in the past two months and the number of reproductive sows [3] Summary by Related Content Soybean - The domestic soybean spot market price in the Northeast production area runs stably, and the grass - roots farmers' asking prices remain stable. Most trading entities purchase casually and consume inventory to maintain old customers. Multi - platform soybean auctions attract attention, and the overall transaction is good. There is a restocking demand before the Spring Festival, but trading entities have difficulty raising prices to sell [1] Corn - The bullish sentiment in the corn market continues to heat up, and the futures and spot prices rise synchronously. As the Spring Festival approaches, the traditional grain - selling window narrows, the grass - roots price - holding and selling - reluctance sentiment weakens, the downstream pre - festival stocking progresses orderly, and some enterprises show a make - up increase. However, with the adjustment of the policy grain source release rules, the transaction volume increases significantly, and the downstream enterprises' willingness to raise prices weakens. The short - term upward trend is expected to slow down [1] Egg - The recent sharp rise in egg prices indicates that the egg - laying chicken farming industry is gradually getting out of the trough and entering a key turning point for profit repair. After the price rebound, the decision on culling old chickens is hesitant, and the supply is balanced by the decrease in new additions and the increase in delayed culling. There is a small decline after the price rush, and there is no obvious driving force. It is not recommended to be overly bearish due to the marginal improvement in the inventory compared with the second half of last year [2] Pig - At the end of 2025, the inventory of breeding sows was 39.61 million, a decrease of 1.16 million or 2.9%, and it was 101.6% of the normal inventory. In 2025, the national pig slaughter was 719.73 million, an increase of 17.16 million or 2.4% compared with the previous year. At the end of 2025, the national pig inventory was 429.67 million, an increase of 2.24 million or 0.5% compared with the end of the previous year. The pig de - capacity is still ongoing, and it is estimated that the spot supply around the Spring Festival is still large, and the near - month and spot prices are difficult to rise continuously. The far - month prices need to pay attention to the capacity reduction in the past two months and the number of reproductive sows [2][3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The soybean market is expected to continue its oscillating trend, with prices remaining high and stable despite regulatory changes such as grain depots stopping purchases and increased auctions [1]. - The corn market has both support and pressure, with prices staying high and oscillating. It is advisable to view it as a wide - range oscillation before the Spring Festival, and consider buying on dips if there is a significant decline [1]. - The egg price surge indicates the egg - laying chicken farming industry is out of the trough and in a profit - repair phase. Although there are supply - related uncertainties, it is not recommended to be overly bearish due to improved存栏量marginally compared to H2 2025 [2]. - For the pig market, there is a large basis between the near - month spot and futures. Near - month buying is strong in the short term, while the far - month needs further capacity reduction of sows and存栏 before strengthening expectations, which should be evidenced by continuous reduction before March [2]. Group 3: Summaries by Related Catalogs Soybean - Low - protein soybean prices in the Northeast production area have declined, while high - protein soybean supply is tight with a high - quality, high - price feature. Some areas have 39% protein content commercial beans priced around 2.2 yuan per catty [1]. - The 76,228 - ton two - way domestic purchase and sale of China Grain Reserves Corporation were all sold, showing short - term market support. Market prices remain high and stable despite regulatory changes [1]. Corn - Policy - driven imports and auction sales of corn supplement the market supply, but transactions often have premiums, boosting market sentiment. However, downstream enterprises' low acceptance of high - priced corn may limit price increases [1]. - The corn market has support from strong grassroots price - holding sentiment and downstream rigid restocking demand, but also faces pressure. Future focus is on grassroots selling mentality and policy release intensity [1]. Egg - The sharp rise in egg prices marks the egg - laying chicken farming industry's exit from the trough and profit - repair. But price rebounds have led to hesitation in old - hen culling, and there is a balance between reduced new additions and increased delayed culling in supply [2]. - After the price increase, inventory has emerged, and the market is in a state of indecision. There is a slight decline after the price peak, and there is no obvious driving force. It is not recommended to be overly bearish due to improved存栏量 [2]. Pig - At the end of 2025, the inventory of breeding sows was 39.61 million, a decrease of 1.16 million or 2.9%, and it was 101.6% of the normal inventory. In October 2025, the sow inventory was 39.9 million [2]. - In 2025, the national pig slaughter was 719.73 million, an increase of 17.16 million or 2.4% compared to the previous year. At the end of 2025, the national pig存栏 was 429.67 million, an increase of 2.24 million or 0.5% compared to the end of the previous year [2]. - There is a large basis between the near - month spot and futures, leading to strong near - month buying in the short term. The far - month needs continuous reduction of sows and存栏 before March to strengthen expectations [2].

【冠通期货研究报告】 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 22 日 大豆：东北产区低蛋白大豆现货价格回落，高蛋白大豆供应偏紧，保持优质 优价特征，部分区域 39%蛋白含量的商品豆价格维持在 2.2 元/斤附近。周三中 储粮进行的 33058 吨国产大豆购销双向竞价再次全部成交。近期大豆市场的核心 变化集中在调控端，一边是多地粮库陆续停收，另一边是大豆拍卖量显著提升， 不过市场价格却依旧保持高位坚挺，没出现大的波动。预估大豆延续震荡走势。 玉米：政策端进口玉米及竞价销售玉米持续投放，一定程度上补充市场供应， 但成交多存在溢价，提振市场情绪。基层挺价情绪较强，中下游存有刚性补库需 求，支撑玉米偏强运行。但下游企业在亏损下对高价玉米接受度不高，或限制玉 米价格上涨空间。整体来看，玉米市场支撑与压力并存，价格保持高位震荡。后 续基层售粮心态变化及政策投放力度仍是关注重点。建议节前宽幅震荡看待，不 过如存在较大回落调整，仍可考虑逢低买入。 鸡蛋：最近鸡蛋价格飙升，标志着蛋鸡养殖行业逐步走出低谷，迎来盈利修 复的关键转折点。这一变化不仅缓解了养殖户的资金压力，更重塑了市场信心。 不过价格反弹再次使得近期涨价老鸡淘汰又在犹豫， ...

发布日期：2026 年 1 月 21 日 【冠通期货研究报告】 大豆：国内大豆现货市场呈现涨跌互现、整体稳定的运行格局。产区市场价 格小幅波动，一方面近期市场走货节奏偏弱，另一方面部分前期底价货源出现小 幅补涨，多空因素交织下产区价格总体保持稳定；销区市场价格则出现小幅回落， 下游食品企业需求持续疲软，采购以随采随用为主，市场交投氛围清淡。今天国 产大豆购销双向 66116 吨，全部成交，说明市场需求存在一定支撑。预估大豆延 续震荡走势。 养殖产业链日报：近月宽松明显 注：本报告有关现货市场的资讯与行情信息，来源于我的钢铁网、中储粮网、 粮达网、金十期货网站。 玉米：本周进口玉米定向邀标投放量从 20 万吨缩减至 10 万吨随后暂停，成 为支撑东北农户惜售和现货价格偏强的重要心理因素。而中储粮在东北等主产区 同步增加常规轮换玉米竞价销售规模，1 月 16 日黑吉辽三省同时启动拍卖，这 种部分收紧、部分释放的调节模式，进一步增加了未来政策投放节奏及力度的不 确定性，也限制了贸易商的囤货热情。短期玉米市场在刚性需求支撑下，继续保 持高位偏强运行格局，春节前备货节奏将是核心驱动因素。强烈的惜售心态、政 策预期与疲弱 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The soybean market is expected to continue its volatile trend, with the price difference between domestic and imported soybeans at a historically high level, which may affect the demand for domestic soybeans [1]. - The corn market is expected to experience wide - range fluctuations before the Spring Festival. There is short - term supply pressure, and the upside space is relatively limited, but there are strong buyers when the price is low [2]. - The egg - chicken farming industry has entered a profit - repair stage, but the market has no obvious driving force due to the balance between supply and demand, and it is not recommended to be overly bearish [3]. - The pig supply side is in a stage of capacity optimization and regional reconstruction. In 2026, the pig supply pattern is expected to gradually move towards re - balance, but there will still be short - term structural pressure [3][4][5]. Summary by Related Content Soybean - Northeast soybean spot prices are generally stable, with a tight supply of high - protein soybeans. The price of 39% protein content commercial soybeans is around 2.2 yuan per catty [1]. - Two domestic soybean trading sessions organized by Sinograin last week were fully sold. The market demand has some support, but the high price difference between domestic and imported soybeans may affect the demand for domestic soybeans [1]. Corn - The policy - based grain source release in the domestic corn market has significantly increased. After the Spring Festival, more than 700,000 tons of liquidity were released in the first week [2]. - The initial auction of Sinograin had a low成交 rate, but after reducing the reserve price, the成交 rate increased to 77%, with a small premium [2]. - There is short - term supply pressure, the upside space before the Spring Festival is limited, and it is recommended to view it as wide - range fluctuations. Consider buying on dips if there is a large correction [2]. Egg - As of January 18, the profit per catty of eggs has turned positive to 0.6 yuan, indicating that the egg - chicken farming industry has entered a profit - repair stage [3]. - The price rebound has made farmers hesitant about culling old chickens. The supply is balanced by new additions and delayed culling, and inventory has appeared after the price increase. There is no obvious driving force in the market [3]. Pig - At the end of 2025, the number of breeding sows was 39.61 million, a decrease of 1.16 million or 2.9% compared to the previous year, and it is currently 101.6% of the normal inventory [3]. - In 2025, the national pig slaughter was 719.73 million, an increase of 17.16 million or 2.4% compared to the previous year. The national pig inventory at the end of 2025 was 429.67 million, an increase of 2.24 million or 0.5% compared to the end of the previous year [3]. - The pig supply side is in a stage of capacity optimization and regional reconstruction. In 2026, the supply pattern is expected to gradually move towards re - balance, but there will be short - term structural pressure [4][5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "oscillating and moderately strong" [1] Core Viewpoints - Soybeans are expected to continue an oscillating and moderately strong trend; for corn, attention should be paid to opportunities to buy on dips; for eggs, try to buy at relatively low points and focus on later capacity reduction; for live pigs, it is recommended to mainly buy on dips for far - month contracts [1][2][4] Summary by Commodity Soybeans - Northeast产区soybean spot prices are at a high level, with a tight supply of high - protein soybeans. The price of 39% protein content commercial beans in some areas is around 2.2 yuan per catty. The 30,000 - ton domestic soybean two - way bidding transaction organized by Sinograin on Tuesday was fully completed. Market demand still has some support, but the price difference between domestic and imported soybeans on the futures market is over 800 yuan per ton, at a historically high level. If the price of domestic soybeans rises further, the demand for domestic soybeans for food or oil - pressing will be affected [1] Corn - As the spot price continues to rise, some trading entities have begun to accelerate grain sales. The number of trucks arriving at Jinzhou Port this morning reached 817, a month - on - month increase of 331. Due to factors such as logistics and transportation, the arrival of grain sources at northern ports will continue to increase. In Shandong, although the number of trucks arriving in the morning is less than 300, considering the low willingness of grass - roots farmers to sell grain and the lack of motivation for terminal enterprises to raise prices, the Huanghuaihai market centered on Shandong will gradually enter the peak grain - selling period [1] Eggs - Since July 2025, the sample chicken - chick replenishment volume (accounting for 50% of the actual replenishment) has been declining year - on - year, and the year - on - year decline in the second half of the year has been increasing month by month. The year - on - year declines in monthly chicken - chick sales from August to December were 9.4%, 14.1%, 12.7%, 13.4%, and 13.9% respectively. It is estimated that from January to May 2026, the number of newly - opened laying hens will remain at a low level. The low replenishment in the second half of 2025 will significantly reduce the pressure of newly - opened laying hens in the first half of 2026. The short - term upward space is suppressed by the loose spot market, but in the long - term, eggs are gradually getting out of the low - price situation [2] Live Pigs - In 2025, the actual total hog slaughter volume of domestic breeding enterprises showed a steady increase, reaching 155.79 million heads, a year - on - year increase of 18.38% compared with 131.6 million heads in 2024. The actual slaughter volume showed significant differences before and after festivals and seasonal characteristics. The current hog supply side is in the stage of capacity optimization and regional reconstruction. The appropriate reduction of the breeding sow inventory lays the foundation for medium - and long - term supply - demand balance. The market will still face short - term structural pressure, but in 2026, the hog supply pattern is expected to gradually re - balance. The significant acceleration of hog capacity reduction further confirms the upward price expectation for far - month contracts [3][4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall investment rating for the breeding industry chain is "oscillating upward" [1] Core Viewpoints - The soybean market will maintain an oscillating upward trend, with production and sales differentiation persisting [1] - The domestic corn spot market is advancing steadily, and there are opportunities to buy on dips [1] - For eggs, it's advisable to wait and see for now due to high - resistance in capacity elimination [2] - For the far - month contracts of live pigs, it's recommended to buy on dips as there is an upward price expectation [3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean - The production - sales differentiation in the soybean market is hard to reverse in the short term, with the northeast region's price increase lacking terminal demand support and the sales area under pressure from high inventory and weak demand [1] - The purchase and sale two - way bidding transaction of 30,000 tons of domestic soybeans by CGC Grain & Oil Co., Ltd. had a 100% transaction rate, indicating some market demand support [1] Corn - Since the New Year's Day holiday, the domestic corn spot market has advanced steadily, and the expected selling pressure has not materialized while the sales progress is over 50% in the northeast [1] - The local reserve rotation auction in the northeast region was popular this week, and the price was at a premium compared to the current spot [1] - The single - period supply of imported corn auctions will be halved to 100,000 tons next week, presenting opportunities to buy on dips [1] Egg - In December, the laying hen inventory dropped to 1.295 billion, with a young - dominated structure accounting for over 80%, resulting in high resistance in capacity elimination [2] - Without the egg price falling below the feed cost, the industry lacks the motivation to actively clear capacity [2] Live Pig - In 2025, the actual live pig slaughter volume of domestic breeding enterprises reached 155.79 million, a year - on - year increase of 18.38% compared to 2024, showing a stable supply foundation [3] - The actual slaughter volume showed significant pre - and post - holiday differences and seasonality, with the lowest in February at 10.349 million and the highest in December at 14.5822 million [3] - The capacity reduction of live pigs has accelerated significantly, indicating an upward price expectation for far - month contracts [3][4]