养殖产业链
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养殖产业链日报:近月宽松明显-20260204
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2026-02-04 09:58
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - The cyclical bottom of soybeans has emerged, and the subsequent decline space is limited, with an expected continuation of the oscillating trend [1] - Corn in the Northeast is expected to have a wide - range oscillation before the Spring Festival, and it can be considered to buy on dips if there is a large decline [1] - Egg inventory in February is expected to have a higher monthly center of gravity than in January, which will have a phased impact on prices, and it is not recommended to be overly bearish [2] - The worst time for live pigs around the Spring Festival is being realized, and subsequent attention should be paid to the regulation of reproductive sows to construct a supply - demand balance sheet for the far - month [3] Summary by Category Soybeans - The soybean market in the Northeast has remained stable recently, with only narrow price fluctuations and a significant decline in trading activity [1] - On February 2, 60,608 tons of reserve soybeans from 2022 were auctioned, all were sold, with an average price of 4,297.6 yuan/ton and a maximum premium of 310 yuan/ton, but the market atmosphere has not improved [1] - Most traders are mainly digesting inventory and fulfilling previous contracts [1] Corn - The Northeast market has entered a small peak of pre - festival grain sales, with supply increasing and demand decreasing, resulting in a weak trend [1] - In Shandong, the grain sales progress has exceeded 50%, and the supply and demand sides are in a continuous game. The price in North China is low, and the actual supply increase is limited. The corn price is slightly stronger [1] Eggs - In January, the inventory days in the production and circulation links of eggs in the main producing areas decreased significantly, with the production - link inventory days at 1.01 days (a 2.88% month - on - month decrease) and the circulation - link inventory days at 1.09 days (a 5.22% month - on - month decrease) [2] - The estimated average inventory days in the production link in February is about 2.50 days, with a significantly higher monthly inventory center of gravity than in January [2] Pigs - At the end of 2025, the inventory of reproductive sows was 39.61 million, a decrease of 1.16 million (a 2.9% decline), and it was 101.6% of the normal inventory [2] - In 2025, the national live pig slaughter was 719.73 million, an increase of 17.16 million (a 2.4% increase) [2] - At the end of 2025, the national live pig inventory was 429.67 million, an increase of 2.24 million (a 0.5% increase) [2] - From late January to early February, concentrated slaughter may drive pig prices further down, and the worst time for live pigs around the Spring Festival is being realized [3]
养殖产业链日报:近月宽松明显-20260203
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2026-02-03 11:09
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The cyclical bottom of soybeans has emerged, and the subsequent decline space is limited, with an expected continuation of the oscillating trend [1] - Corn is expected to have a wide - range oscillation before the Spring Festival, and it can still be considered for bargain - buying if there is a large decline [1] - There is no obvious short - term driver for eggs, and excessive bearishness is not recommended due to a marginal improvement in inventory compared to the second half of last year [2] - The darkest time for pigs around the Spring Festival is being realized, and subsequent attention should be paid to the regulation of reproductive sows to construct a supply - demand balance sheet for the far - month [3] 3. Summary by Related Categories Soybeans - In the Northeast production area, the spot market for low - protein soybeans is stable, with little remaining grain in the grass - roots level and sluggish transactions. The supply of high - protein soybeans is tight, showing the characteristic of better quality commanding a higher price. The price of 39% protein content commercial beans in some areas is around 2.2 yuan per catty [1] - On February 2, 2026, at 14:00, China Grain Reserves Corporation planned to auction 60,608 tons of soybeans, all of which were sold. The reserve price was 4,050 yuan per ton, the average transaction price was 4,298 yuan per ton, and the premium was 210 - 310 yuan per ton [1] Corn - The Northeast market has entered a small peak of grain sales before the Spring Festival. Under the game of increased supply and decreased demand, the corn trend is weak. Farmers who want to sell grain are selling one after another, and traders and grain dealers have little expectation of price increases. The shipment volume before the Spring Festival has increased [1] - In Shandong, the grain sales progress has exceeded 50%. The supply and demand sides are in continuous game. Currently, North China has a low - price area. In addition to the support of deep - processing stocking demand, traders have the intention to build warehouses, and the actual increase in market supply is limited. The corn price is stable with a slight upward trend [1] Eggs - The current inventory of laying hens in production is still at a relatively high level in recent years, with sufficient basic market supply capacity [2] - The culling rhythm of old hens has slowed down. With the recent sharp rise in egg prices, the income of the breeding link has expanded, and farmers' confidence has been restored. The industry generally has the idea of delaying the culling of old hens and even molting them later, resulting in a decrease in the slaughter volume of old hens and slowing down the reduction rate of production capacity [2] - According to the breeding cycle, the newly - laid hens recently were the chicks replenished around October 2025. Although the egg price at that time inhibited some replenishment, the established production capacity is still gradually coming into production, resulting in the situation of "old hens not leaving and new hens coming", and the overall national production capacity remains at a high level [2] Pigs - At the end of 2025, the inventory of reproductive sows was 39.61 million, a decrease of 1.16 million, a decline of 2.9%, and currently it is 101.6% of the normal inventory [2] - In 2025, the national pig slaughter was 719.73 million, an increase of 17.16 million compared with the previous year, a growth of 2.4% [2] - At the end of 2025, the national pig inventory was 429.67 million, an increase of 2.24 million compared with the end of the previous year, a growth of 0.5% [2] - From the end of January to the beginning of February, as the pre - Spring Festival slaughter window narrows, concentrated slaughter may drive pig prices to weaken further. Although farmers have resistance to price drops and there are weather disturbances, they can only slow down the downward rate and are difficult to reverse the trend [3]
养殖产业链日报:近月宽松明显-20260202
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2026-02-02 11:04
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cyclical bottom of soybeans has emerged, and the subsequent decline space is limited. It is estimated that soybeans will continue to fluctuate [1] - Corn is expected to have wide - range fluctuations before the Spring Festival. If there is a large decline, consider buying on dips [1] - There is no obvious short - term driver for eggs. Due to a slight improvement in the marginal inventory compared to the second half of last year, it is not recommended to be overly bearish [2] - The darkest time for pigs around the Spring Festival has passed. Subsequently, attention should be paid to the regulation of sows to build a supply - demand balance sheet for the far - month period [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Categories Soybeans - In the Northeast soybean producing area, the spot market for low - protein soybeans is stable. The supply of high - protein soybeans is tight with the feature of high - quality and high - price. The price of 39% protein - content commercial soybeans in some areas is around 2.2 yuan per catty [1] - On February 2, 2026, at 14:00, China Grain Reserves Corporation planned to auction 60,608 tons of soybeans, all of which were sold. The reserve price was 4,050 yuan per ton, the average transaction price was 4,298 yuan per ton, and the premium was 210 - 310 yuan per ton [1] Corn - In the Northeast production area, after entering the twelfth lunar month, farmers' attitude of holding prices has loosened slightly, and the amount of corn on the market has improved slightly. In terms of demand, there is a rigid demand for stocking before the Spring Festival in the feed and deep - processing industries, but due to the relatively high price of dry corn, the inventory days of mainstream feed and deep - processing corn have increased to more than 30 days [1] Eggs - The current inventory of laying hens is still at a relatively high level in recent years. The old - hen culling rate has slowed down, and new - laying hens are gradually entering the market, resulting in the overall production capacity remaining high [2] Pigs - At the end of 2025, the inventory of breeding sows was 39.61 million, a decrease of 1.16 million or 2.9%. It was 101.6% of the normal reserve. The national pig slaughter in 2025 was 719.73 million, an increase of 17.16 million or 2.4%. The national pig inventory at the end of 2025 was 429.67 million, an increase of 2.24 million or 0.5% [2] - With the arrival of the Spring Festival in February, the pressure on the breeding side to sell pigs may be temporarily reduced. The supply of pigs is expected to decrease significantly. The pre - festival stocking provides short - term support, but the demand will decline after the Spring Festival [3] - In 2025, pig - related enterprises generally declined, with most enterprises suffering heavy losses and their stock prices falling sharply, which also had a certain pessimistic impact on the commodities [3]
养殖产业链日报:近月宽松明显-20260130
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2026-01-30 11:35
Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The cyclical bottom of soybeans has emerged, and the subsequent decline space is limited. Soybeans are expected to continue a relatively strong oscillatory trend [1]. - Corn is expected to have a wide - range oscillation before the Spring Festival. If there is a large decline, it can be considered to buy on dips [1]. - There is no obvious short - term driver for eggs, and due to a marginal improvement in the存栏量 compared to the second half of last year, excessive short - selling is not recommended [2]. - Pig de - capacity is still ongoing. It is estimated that the spot supply around the Spring Festival is still large, and the near - month and spot prices are difficult to show continuous growth. The far - month needs to focus on capacity reduction in the recent two months and the number of reproductive sows [3][4]. Summary by Commodity Soybeans - In the Northeast production area, the spot market for low - protein soybeans is stable, with little remaining grain in the grass - roots level and sluggish transactions. The supply of high - protein soybeans is tight, showing the characteristic of high - quality and high - price. The price of 39% protein - content commercial beans in some areas is around 2.2 yuan per catty. Multiple domestic soybean two - way bidding transactions by the China National Grain and Oils Reserves Corporation have all been successfully concluded recently, indicating certain market demand support [1]. Corn - In the production area of Northeast China, after entering the twelfth lunar month, farmers' willingness to hold prices has slightly weakened, and the phenomenon of farmers threshing and selling grain for cash has increased, resulting in a slight improvement in the supply of grass - roots corn. In terms of demand, there is a rigid demand for pre - Spring Festival stockpiling in the feed and deep - processing industries, and the purchasing enthusiasm of some factories has increased. However, due to the relatively high price of dry grain, the inventory days of mainstream feed and deep - processing corn have increased to more than 30 days, and the factory's raw material inventory is relatively safe, with a cautious market sentiment [1]. Eggs - The current inventory of laying hens is still at a relatively high level in recent years, and the basic market supply capacity is sufficient. The culling rhythm of old hens has slowed down. With the recent rapid and substantial increase in egg prices, the breeding income has expanded, and farmers' confidence has been restored. There is a common idea in the industry to delay the culling of old hens and even carry out molting later, resulting in a decrease in the number of old hens sold and a slowdown in the reduction of production capacity. According to the breeding cycle, the recently newly - opened laying hens were the chicks replenished around October 2025. Although the egg prices at that time inhibited some replenishment, the established production capacity is still being gradually opened, resulting in a situation of "old hens not leaving, new hens coming", which keeps the overall national production capacity at a high level [2]. Pigs - At the end of 2025, the inventory of reproductive sows was 39.61 million, a decrease of 1.16 million or 2.9%, currently 101.6% of the normal inventory. In 2025, the national pig slaughter was 719.73 million, an increase of 17.16 million or 2.4% compared with the previous year. At the end of 2025, the national pig inventory was 429.67 million, an increase of 2.24 million or 0.5% compared with the previous year - end. The pig inventory at the end of 2025 was still higher than the same period last year, indicating that pig de - capacity is still ongoing. It is estimated that the spot supply around the Spring Festival is still large, and the near - month and spot prices are difficult to show continuous growth. The far - month needs to focus on capacity reduction in the recent two months and the number of reproductive sows [2][3][4].
【冠通期货研究报告】养殖产业链日报:近月宽松明显-20260129
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2026-01-29 11:24
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Views - The cyclical bottom of soybean has emerged, and the subsequent decline space is limited. It is estimated that soybeans will continue to show a relatively strong and volatile trend [1]. - Corn is expected to have a wide - range volatile trend before the Spring Festival. If there is a large decline and adjustment, it can still be considered to buy on dips [1]. - The inventory of laying hens in the first half of 2026 will decrease month - by - month, with significant declines in March and April, and a narrowing decline in May. It is not recommended to be overly bearish [2]. - The de - capacity of pigs is still ongoing. It is estimated that the spot supply around the Spring Festival is still large, and it is difficult for the near - month and spot prices to show a continuous rise. The far - month needs to focus on the de - capacity in the past two months and the number of sows [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Content Soybean - In the Northeast production area, the spot market of low - protein soybeans is stable, with little remaining grain inventory at the grass - roots level and sluggish transactions. The supply of high - protein soybeans is tight, showing the characteristic of high - quality and high - price. The price of 39% protein content commercial soybeans in some areas is around 2.2 yuan per catty. Multiple domestic soybean two - way bidding transactions by Sinograin have all been completed, indicating certain market demand support [1]. Corn - In the production area, after entering the twelfth lunar month, farmers' attitude of holding prices has loosened slightly, and the phenomenon of threshing and selling grain by grass - roots farmers has increased, with a slight improvement in the supply of grass - roots corn. In terms of demand, there is a rigid demand for stockpiling before the Spring Festival in the feed and deep - processing industries, and the purchasing enthusiasm of some factories has increased. However, due to the relatively high price of dry grain, the inventory days of mainstream feed and deep - processing corn have increased to more than 30 days, and the factory's raw material inventory is relatively safe, with a cautious attitude in the market [1]. Egg - Calculated from the chick replenishment data, the inventory of laying hens in the first half of 2026 will show a monthly decreasing trend, with significant declines in March and April due to the combined effects of less previous replenishment and accelerated elimination of old chickens. In May, the inventory will continue to decline, but the decline will narrow, and the industry will gradually enter the supply - demand adjustment transition period. The market is in a state of hesitation, with a slight decline after a recent upward rush, and there is no obvious driving force. Since the current inventory margin has improved slightly compared with the second half of last year, it is not recommended to be overly bearish [2]. Pig - At the end of 2025, the inventory of breeding sows was 39.61 million, a decrease of 1.16 million or 2.9%, and it was 101.6% of the normal reserve. In October 2025, the sow inventory was 39.9 million. In 2025, the national pig slaughter was 719.73 million, an increase of 17.16 million or 2.4% compared with the previous year. At the end of 2025, the national pig inventory was 429.67 million, an increase of 2.24 million or 0.5% compared with the end of the previous year. The pig de - capacity is still ongoing, and it is estimated that the spot supply around the Spring Festival is still large, and the near - month and spot prices are difficult to show a continuous rise [2][3].
养殖产业链日报:近月宽松明显-20260128
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2026-01-28 12:29
1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - The soybean market is expected to continue a moderately strong and volatile trend, with low - protein soybean prices in the Northeast stabilizing and high - protein soybeans in short supply. The 100% bid - ask success rate of CGSGB's soybean transactions shows market demand support [1] - Corn is expected to have wide - range fluctuations before the Spring Festival. If there is a significant decline, it can be considered for buying at low prices. In the Northeast, farmers' selling has increased, while feed and deep - processing plants have increased their inventory [1] - In the first half of 2026, the inventory of laying hens is expected to decline monthly, with the largest decline in March and April. Due to a marginal increase in inventory compared to the second half of last year, excessive short - selling is not recommended [2] - The de - capacity of the pig industry is still ongoing. The supply of live pigs around the Spring Festival is expected to be large, and the near - term and spot prices are unlikely to rise continuously. The far - term market depends on capacity reduction in the past two months and the number of sows [3] 3. Key Points by Commodity Soybean - Low - protein soybean prices in the Northeast are stable, with tight supply and limited trading. High - protein soybeans are in short supply, with 39% protein content soybeans priced around 2.2 yuan per catty. CGSGB's soybean bid - ask success rate was 100% for 24,099 tons, indicating market demand support, and a moderately strong and volatile trend is expected [1] Corn - In the Northeast, farmers' selling has increased after the twelfth lunar month. Feed and deep - processing plants have a rigid demand for pre - holiday stocking, and some have increased their purchasing enthusiasm. However, due to the high price of dry corn, the inventory days of mainstream plants have increased to over 30 days. A wide - range pre - holiday fluctuation is expected, and buying at low prices can be considered if there is a significant decline [1] Egg - Based on chick replenishment data, the inventory of laying hens will decline monthly in the first half of 2026, with the largest decline in March and April due to low replenishment and accelerated old - hen culling. The decline will narrow in May as the industry enters a supply - demand adjustment period. Excessive short - selling is not recommended due to a marginal increase in inventory [2] Pig - At the end of 2025, the inventory of breeding sows was 39.61 million, a decrease of 1.16 million or 2.9%, and 101.6% of the normal level. In 2025, the national pig slaughter was 719.73 million, an increase of 17.16 million or 2.4%. The year - end inventory was 429.67 million, an increase of 2.24 million or 0.5%. The de - capacity is ongoing, and the near - term and spot prices are unlikely to rise continuously around the Spring Festival. The far - term market depends on recent capacity reduction and sow numbers [2][3]
【冠通期货研究报告】养殖产业链日报:近月宽松明显-20260128
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2026-01-28 11:38
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Northeast low - protein soybean prices are stable, supply is tightening, high - protein soybeans are in short supply. With 100% bid - ask success rate of 24099 tons of CGSCC soybeans, soybeans are expected to continue a strong and volatile trend [1] - In the corn market, farmers in Northeast China are more willing to sell after the twelfth lunar month. Feed and deep - processing plants have pre - holiday stocking needs, but with sufficient inventory, the market is cautious. Corn is expected to fluctuate widely before the Spring Festival, and buying on dips can be considered if there is a significant decline [1] - In the first half of 2026, the inventory of laying hens will decline monthly, with significant drops in March and April and a narrowing decline in May. Due to a marginal improvement in inventory, excessive short - selling is not recommended [2] - At the end of 2025, the inventory of breeding sows decreased by 2.9%, and the inventory of live pigs increased by 0.5%. The supply of live pigs around the Spring Festival is expected to be large, and the near - term and spot prices are unlikely to rise continuously. The far - term market depends on recent capacity reduction and the number of breeding sows [2][3] Summary by Related Categories Soybean - Northeast low - protein soybean prices are stable, high - protein soybeans are in short supply, with some 39% protein soybeans at around 2.2 yuan per catty. The 100% bid - ask success rate of 24099 tons of CGSCC soybeans shows market demand support, and soybeans are expected to be strongly volatile [1] Corn - In Northeast China, farmers' willingness to sell increases after the twelfth lunar month, and feed and deep - processing plants have pre - holiday stocking needs. However, with sufficient inventory (more than 30 days), the market is cautious. Corn is expected to fluctuate widely before the Spring Festival, and buying on dips can be considered for significant drops [1] Egg - From chicken - chick replenishment data, the inventory of laying hens will decline monthly in H1 2026, with significant drops in March and April due to low replenishment and accelerated old - hen culling. The decline narrows in May. Due to a marginal improvement in inventory, excessive short - selling is not recommended [2] Pig - At the end of 2025, the inventory of breeding sows was 39.61 million, a decrease of 1.16 million or 2.9%, and 101.6% of the normal level; the number of live pigs sold was 719.73 million, an increase of 17.16 million or 2.4%, and the inventory of live pigs was 429.67 million, an increase of 2.24 million or 0.5%. The supply around the Spring Festival is large, and near - term and spot prices are unlikely to rise continuously. The far - term market depends on recent capacity reduction and the number of breeding sows [2][3]
养殖产业链日报:近月宽松明显-20260127
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2026-01-27 10:01
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic soybean spot market price is stable with a slight upward trend, and it is expected to continue the oscillatory trend [1]. - The domestic corn spot market atmosphere is strong, with prices rising in the north and falling slightly in the south. It is recommended to view it as wide - range oscillation before the Spring Festival, and consider buying on dips if there is a significant decline [1]. - The egg - laying hen inventory in the first half of 2026 will decline monthly, with significant drops in March and April and a narrowing decline in May. It is not recommended to be overly bearish [2]. - The pig de - capacity process is ongoing. The spot supply is expected to be large around the Spring Festival, and it is difficult for near - month and spot prices to rise continuously. Far - month prices depend on capacity reduction in the past two months and the number of sows [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean - The domestic soybean spot market price is stable with a slight upward trend. Northeast产区 prices are stable, farmers' asking prices are unchanged, and most traders buy casually and consume inventory. Multi - platform soybean auctions attract attention and have good transactions. There is pre - Spring Festival replenishment demand, but it is difficult for traders to raise prices [1]. Corn - The domestic corn spot market atmosphere is strong, especially in the Northeast. The average purchase price of deep - processing enterprises in the Northeast increased by 0.7% week - on - week, in North China by 0.6% week - on - week, in northern ports by 0.66% week - on - week, and decreased by 0.4% in southern ports week - on - week. The strong pattern weakens from north to south and from production areas to sales areas. Deep - processing enterprises still have pre - holiday replenishment demand, and the increase in grassroots supply does not form pressure. There are concerns about the upside space due to the price inversion between production and sales areas and continuous reserve auctions. It is recommended to view it as wide - range oscillation before the Spring Festival and consider buying on dips if there is a significant decline [1]. Egg - Based on chick - replenishment data, the inventory of egg - laying hens in the first half of 2026 will decline monthly. The inventory decline is most significant in March and April due to low previous chick - replenishment and accelerated culling of old hens. In May, the decline narrows, and the industry enters a supply - demand adjustment transition period. The market is fluctuating, and there is no obvious driving factor. Since the inventory margin has improved slightly compared to the second half of last year, it is not recommended to be overly bearish [2]. Pig - At the end of 2025, the inventory of breeding sows was 39.61 million, a decrease of 1.16 million or 2.9%, and it was 101.6% of the normal reserve. In October 2025, the sow inventory was 39.9 million. In 2025, the national pig slaughter was 719.73 million, an increase of 17.16 million or 2.4%. At the end of 2025, the national pig inventory was 429.67 million, an increase of 2.24 million or 0.5%. The pig de - capacity process is ongoing. The spot supply is expected to be large around the Spring Festival. The demand has increased, but it is difficult for near - month and spot prices to rise continuously. Far - month prices depend on capacity reduction in the past two months and the number of sows [2][3].
【冠通期货研究报告】养殖产业链日报:近月宽松明显-20260126
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2026-01-26 11:08
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The domestic soybean spot market price shows a stable and slightly stronger trend, and it is estimated to continue the volatile trend [1] - The bullish sentiment in the corn market continues to heat up, and the short - term upward trend is expected to slow down. It is recommended to view it as a wide - range shock before the Spring Festival, and consider buying on dips if there is a large pullback [1] - The egg price has soared, and the egg - laying chicken farming industry has shown signs of profit repair. There is no obvious driving force at present, and it is not recommended to be overly bearish [2] - The pig de - capacity is still ongoing. It is estimated that the spot supply around the Spring Festival is still large, and the near - month and spot prices are difficult to rise continuously. The far - month prices need to pay attention to the capacity reduction in the past two months and the number of reproductive sows [3] Summary by Related Content Soybean - The domestic soybean spot market price in the Northeast production area runs stably, and the grass - roots farmers' asking prices remain stable. Most trading entities purchase casually and consume inventory to maintain old customers. Multi - platform soybean auctions attract attention, and the overall transaction is good. There is a restocking demand before the Spring Festival, but trading entities have difficulty raising prices to sell [1] Corn - The bullish sentiment in the corn market continues to heat up, and the futures and spot prices rise synchronously. As the Spring Festival approaches, the traditional grain - selling window narrows, the grass - roots price - holding and selling - reluctance sentiment weakens, the downstream pre - festival stocking progresses orderly, and some enterprises show a make - up increase. However, with the adjustment of the policy grain source release rules, the transaction volume increases significantly, and the downstream enterprises' willingness to raise prices weakens. The short - term upward trend is expected to slow down [1] Egg - The recent sharp rise in egg prices indicates that the egg - laying chicken farming industry is gradually getting out of the trough and entering a key turning point for profit repair. After the price rebound, the decision on culling old chickens is hesitant, and the supply is balanced by the decrease in new additions and the increase in delayed culling. There is a small decline after the price rush, and there is no obvious driving force. It is not recommended to be overly bearish due to the marginal improvement in the inventory compared with the second half of last year [2] Pig - At the end of 2025, the inventory of breeding sows was 39.61 million, a decrease of 1.16 million or 2.9%, and it was 101.6% of the normal inventory. In 2025, the national pig slaughter was 719.73 million, an increase of 17.16 million or 2.4% compared with the previous year. At the end of 2025, the national pig inventory was 429.67 million, an increase of 2.24 million or 0.5% compared with the end of the previous year. The pig de - capacity is still ongoing, and it is estimated that the spot supply around the Spring Festival is still large, and the near - month and spot prices are difficult to rise continuously. The far - month prices need to pay attention to the capacity reduction in the past two months and the number of reproductive sows [2][3]
【冠通期货研究报告】养殖产业链日报:近月宽松明显-20260123
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2026-01-23 11:33
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The soybean market is expected to continue its oscillating trend, with prices remaining high and stable despite regulatory changes such as grain depots stopping purchases and increased auctions [1]. - The corn market has both support and pressure, with prices staying high and oscillating. It is advisable to view it as a wide - range oscillation before the Spring Festival, and consider buying on dips if there is a significant decline [1]. - The egg price surge indicates the egg - laying chicken farming industry is out of the trough and in a profit - repair phase. Although there are supply - related uncertainties, it is not recommended to be overly bearish due to improved存栏量marginally compared to H2 2025 [2]. - For the pig market, there is a large basis between the near - month spot and futures. Near - month buying is strong in the short term, while the far - month needs further capacity reduction of sows and存栏 before strengthening expectations, which should be evidenced by continuous reduction before March [2]. Group 3: Summaries by Related Catalogs Soybean - Low - protein soybean prices in the Northeast production area have declined, while high - protein soybean supply is tight with a high - quality, high - price feature. Some areas have 39% protein content commercial beans priced around 2.2 yuan per catty [1]. - The 76,228 - ton two - way domestic purchase and sale of China Grain Reserves Corporation were all sold, showing short - term market support. Market prices remain high and stable despite regulatory changes [1]. Corn - Policy - driven imports and auction sales of corn supplement the market supply, but transactions often have premiums, boosting market sentiment. However, downstream enterprises' low acceptance of high - priced corn may limit price increases [1]. - The corn market has support from strong grassroots price - holding sentiment and downstream rigid restocking demand, but also faces pressure. Future focus is on grassroots selling mentality and policy release intensity [1]. Egg - The sharp rise in egg prices marks the egg - laying chicken farming industry's exit from the trough and profit - repair. But price rebounds have led to hesitation in old - hen culling, and there is a balance between reduced new additions and increased delayed culling in supply [2]. - After the price increase, inventory has emerged, and the market is in a state of indecision. There is a slight decline after the price peak, and there is no obvious driving force. It is not recommended to be overly bearish due to improved存栏量 [2]. Pig - At the end of 2025, the inventory of breeding sows was 39.61 million, a decrease of 1.16 million or 2.9%, and it was 101.6% of the normal inventory. In October 2025, the sow inventory was 39.9 million [2]. - In 2025, the national pig slaughter was 719.73 million, an increase of 17.16 million or 2.4% compared to the previous year. At the end of 2025, the national pig存栏 was 429.67 million, an increase of 2.24 million or 0.5% compared to the end of the previous year [2]. - There is a large basis between the near - month spot and futures, leading to strong near - month buying in the short term. The far - month needs continuous reduction of sows and存栏 before March to strengthen expectations [2].