Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde announced that today's interest rate decision was unanimously agreed upon by all members [1]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to maintain interest rates at 2% during its upcoming meeting, marking the first time in a year that rates will remain unchanged as the bank awaits clarity on the impact of U.S. tariffs on inflation [1][4] Interest Rate Decisions - The ECB plans to significantly lower borrowing costs by 200 basis points between June 2024 and June 2025, aiming to keep deposit rates within a range that neither suppresses nor stimulates the economy [4] - ECB officials are divided on future actions, with some advocating for further easing due to concerns that inflation may remain below the 2% target, while others warn that increased public spending could lead to higher prices in the future [4][7] Economic Outlook - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariffs, particularly President Trump's threat to impose a 30% tariff on the EU starting August 1, has increased risks of a worse-than-expected economic outcome [7] - The ECB's most severe trade scenario predicts a 20% tariff on all European goods, which could further depress inflation [7] Euro Strength - The euro has appreciated by 13% against the dollar this year, raising concerns among policymakers as it makes exports more expensive and lowers import costs [8] - ECB officials are cautious about the euro's strength, with potential implications for future interest rate decisions if the euro surpasses 1.20 against the dollar [8] Communication Challenges - The ECB's policy statement and President Lagarde's remarks are unlikely to change significantly, but the wording used to describe the decision to maintain rates could influence market expectations regarding future rate cuts [9][12] Official Changes - The July meeting marks the first for Olaf Sleijpen as a council member, succeeding Klaas Knot as the Dutch central bank governor, while the departure of hawkish figures like Austrian central bank governor Robert Holzmann may influence future policy discussions [13]

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of Australia's Governor Bullock does not believe that the employment report will alter interest rate decisions [1] Group 1 - The employment report is not expected to influence the Reserve Bank's monetary policy [1] - Bullock's stance indicates a focus on broader economic indicators rather than just employment data [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of Australia's Governor, Philip Lowe, indicated that fluctuations in monthly employment data will lead the committee to make similar interest rate decisions [1] Group 1 - Monthly employment data is subject to volatility, which influences the Reserve Bank's decision-making process regarding interest rates [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's FOMC statement indicates that all committee members unanimously agreed on the current interest rate decision, maintaining consistency with the previous meeting [1] Group 1 - The decision reflects a consensus among committee members, suggesting stability in monetary policy [1] - The interest rate remains unchanged, indicating a cautious approach to economic conditions [1]

Group 1: Currency Market Overview - The euro attracted some dip-buying, rising to around 1.1450 during the European session [1] - The British pound gained traction above 1.3550 due to a weaker dollar [1] - The Japanese yen maintained slight gains, with USD/JPY dropping to the 144.20 area, marking a new daily low [1] - The Australian dollar slightly recovered from previous losses, while the New Zealand dollar traded around 0.6040, recovering recent declines [1] Group 2: U.S. Economic Indicators - U.S. non-farm payrolls for May slightly exceeded expectations, with previous months' data significantly revised down [2] - The unemployment rate remained stable, and average hourly earnings were better than expected, leading to reduced bets on Fed rate cuts [2][3] Group 3: Central Bank Insights - Federal Reserve officials emphasized the need for patience, indicating that it is not yet time for preemptive measures [3] - The Fed is expected to propose changes to the regulatory ratings for large banks to enhance the supplementary leverage ratio [3] - The European Central Bank's officials expressed differing opinions on interest rate decisions, with the neutral nominal rate estimated at around 3% [6][9] - The Bank of Japan is reportedly considering slowing the pace of its bond purchase reductions [7] Group 4: Technical Analysis - The GBP/USD is trading near the 20-period simple moving average, indicating a retreat of buyers, with resistance levels identified at 1.3590-1.3600 and 1.3700 [14] - The AUD/USD is consolidating between support at 0.6400 and resistance at 0.6500, with the RSI indicating a balance of power between bulls and bears [14] - For USD/JPY, failure to hold the support near 144.25/50 could lead to further declines, with key support at 142.37 [15]

Group 1: US Economic Indicators - US non-farm payrolls in May slightly exceeded expectations, but previous two months' data were significantly revised downwards; unemployment rate remains stable, and average hourly earnings were better than expected; bets on Fed rate cuts have decreased [2] - Fed's Harker calls for patience, stating that it is not the time for preemptive measures [2] - Fed Governor Bowman suggests proposing changes to the regulatory ratings for large banks; regulatory agencies will soon announce proposals to enhance the supplementary leverage ratio [2] Group 2: European Central Bank (ECB) Insights - ECB Governing Council member Holzmann expresses differing opinions on this week's interest rate decision, stating that the current nominal neutral rate is around 3% [3] - ECB Governing Council member Vujcic indicates that the current round of rate cuts is nearing its end [4] - ECB Governing Council member Centeno states that interest rates will stabilize around 2% for the foreseeable future [5] Group 3: Other Central Bank Developments - New Zealand's Chief Economist Conway mentions that lower interest rates will promote economic growth in the second half of the year [4] - The Bank of Japan is reportedly considering slowing the pace of its bond purchase reduction [5] - Japanese Prime Minister Kishida states that Japan is gradually entering a phase of rising interest rates [5] - Bank of England member Green notes a short-term rebound in prices, but deflationary trends will continue [5] - ECB Governing Council member Escrivá suggests that the path for the benchmark interest rate may require slight adjustments [5]

Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde stated that the ECB "almost unanimously" approved the interest rate decision, with one member dissenting [1] - The previous meeting had a unanimous decision [1]

Core Points - Eurozone inflation rate dropped to 1.9% in May, exceeding expectations and falling below the European Central Bank's (ECB) target of 2% [1][2] - Following the inflation data release, yields on Eurozone bonds, including German, Italian, and French bonds, decreased [1] - Economists had anticipated a 2% inflation rate for May, while the previous month's rate was 2.2% [2] Group 1: Inflation Data - Eurozone inflation rate for May was reported at 1.9%, down from 2.2% in April [1][2] - The decline in inflation is significant as it moves closer to the ECB's target of 2% [1] Group 2: Bond Yields - 10-year German bond yield fell by 2.1 basis points to 2.503% [1] - Other bond yields also saw declines, with 10-year Italian bond yield down 1.6 basis points to 3.495% and 10-year French bond yield down 1.3 basis points to 3.174% [1] Group 3: ECB's Monetary Policy - The ECB is expected to consider the latest inflation data in its upcoming interest rate decision [3] - Market pricing indicates a 95% probability of a 25 basis points rate cut by the ECB [3] Group 4: Economic Outlook - The European Commission is advocating for the U.S. to reduce or eliminate tariffs despite potential increases in steel and aluminum tariffs [4] - The OECD projects Eurozone economic growth of 1% in 2025, with inflation expected to reach 2.2% this year [4]

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