风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： Triangle1980 来源：雪球 目前全球第三代制冷剂是主流的制冷剂 ， 第三代制冷剂中国第三代制冷剂占全球超80%的产量配额 。 这 种配额是固定的 ， 不可变动的 。 三代制冷剂配额基准年是20-22年 ， 2023年冻结了配额比例 。 2024 年以后三代制冷剂无论下游需求怎么样 ， 上游的供给不会增长 。 而且未来第三代制冷剂产量会逐步减少 。 2024年 ： 将HFCs的生产和使用冻结在2020-2022年的平均水平 （ 基线值 ） 。 具体步骤如下 ： 2029年 ， 削减基线值的 10% ； 2035年 ， 削减 30% ； 2040年 ， 削减 50% ； 2045年 ， 削减 80% ， 最终保留不超过基线值的 20% 用于必要用途 。 | | 第2条款国 | | 第5条款国 | 印度、沙特阿拉伯、 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 进度 | 大部分发达国家 | 俄罗斯、白俄罗斯、 哈萨克斯坦、塔吉 克斯坦、乌兹别克 斯坦 | 大部分发展中国家 (含中国) ...

化工子行业年报和 1 季报深度梳理 - 氟化工 20240514 摘要 • 二代制冷剂（如 R22）价格连续两年上涨，2024 年二三季度涨幅显著， 四季度虽为淡季仍小幅抬升。2025 年一季度价格环比增长约 9%，同比增 长 10%。预计 2025 年配额削减将继续支撑价格上涨，二三季度涨幅或将 扩大。 • 2024 年四季度二代制冷剂产量同比下降 34%，2025 年一季度同比下降 18%。出口方面，2024 年四季度同比下降 13%，2025 年一季度同比下 降 38%。尽管出口量下降，但价格持续上涨且库存合理，预计后续价格仍 将上涨。 • 三代制冷剂（如 R32、R125、R134A）2024 年四季度配额紧张，部分 产品紧缺，溢价能力强劲。2025 年一季度淡季涨幅不逊于去年四季度， 企业议价权强。预计 2025 年上半年需求亮眼，下半年虽不确定，但议价 权提升逻辑不变。 • 空调行业表现良好，2024 年家用空调同比增长 19%，累计同比增长约 10%。2025 年一季度累计同比增长达 15%，支持了 R32 的涨价态势。 目前库存低位且合理，春节期间供给相对低位，行业控量明显。 Q&A 二代制冷 ...

[巨化股份（ Table_NewTitle] 600160）：制冷剂景气上行， 公司业绩大幅提升 ——公司简评报告 [table_main] 投资要点 [Table_Reportdate] 2025年05月09日 [Table_invest] 买入（维持） 报告原因：业绩点评 基 础 化 工 张晶磊 S0630524090001 zjlei@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 谢建斌 S0630522020001 xjb@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 吴骏燕 S0630517120001 wjyan@longone.com.cn | [数据日期 Table_cominfo] | 2025/05/08 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价 | 26.98 | | 总股本(万股) | 269,975 | | 流通A股/B股(万股) | 269,975/0 | | 资产负债率(%) | 32.85% | | 市净率(倍) | 3.62 | | 净资产收益率(加权) | 4.44 | | 12个月内最高/最低价 | 27.76/14.25 | [Table_QuotePic] -54% -43 ...

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年05月09日 [table_main] 投资要点 基 础 化 工 张晶磊 S0630524090001 zjlei@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 谢建斌 S0630522020001 xjb@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 吴骏燕 S0630517120001 wjyan@longone.com.cn | [数据日期 Table_cominfo] | 2025/05/08 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价 | 26.98 | | 总股本(万股) | 269,975 | | 流通A股/B股(万股) | 269,975/0 | | 资产负债率(%) | 32.85% | | 市净率(倍) | 3.62 | | 净资产收益率(加权) | 4.44 | | 12个月内最高/最低价 | 27.76/14.25 | [Table_QuotePic] -54% -43% -31% -19% -7% 4% 16% 28% 24-05 24-08 24-11 25-02 巨化股份 沪深300 [Table_invest] 买入（维持） 报告原因：业 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the fluorochemical industry [8][9]. Core Insights - The fluorochemical industry is expected to benefit from the upcoming peak season for refrigerants driven by summer heat, with active trading in a low inventory context [2][8]. - The report highlights a significant increase in refrigerant prices, with R32 reaching 48,000 yuan/ton, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 1,000 yuan/ton [2][24]. - The implementation of the Montreal Protocol's national plan is expected to tighten supply and enhance the long-term outlook for refrigerant prices, particularly for R22 and R32 [4][56]. Summary by Sections 1. April Fluorochemical Industry Performance - As of April 28, 2025, the fluorochemical index stood at 1,232.89 points, down 2.60% from March, outperforming the Shenwan Chemical Index by 0.63 percentage points [1][16]. 2. April Refrigerant Market Review 2.1 Refrigerant Price and Spread Performance - Prices for refrigerants have shown an upward trend, with R32 and R410a experiencing significant month-on-month increases of 14% and 9% respectively in March [22][24]. - The report notes that R22 prices are stable at 36,000 yuan/ton, while R134a remains at 47,000 yuan/ton [24]. 2.2 Refrigerant Export Data Tracking - In Q1 2025, R32 exports increased by 5.3% year-on-year, while R22 exports decreased by 38.4% [31]. - March saw a significant rebound in export volumes, with R22 and R32 experiencing month-on-month growth of 165% and 150% respectively [31][32]. 2.3 Major Refrigerant Operating Rates and Production Data Tracking - The report indicates that production quotas for R22 have been reduced by 28% compared to 2024, reflecting tighter supply constraints [58]. 3. Implementation of the Montreal Protocol National Plan - The national plan aims to reduce HCFCs production and usage by 67.5% and 73.2% respectively by 2025, with a complete phase-out by 2030 [4][56]. - The report emphasizes the ongoing commitment to reducing HFCs, with a target of a 10% reduction by 2029 [4][56]. 4. Air Conditioning/Automobile/Refrigerator Production and Export Data Tracking 4.1 Air Conditioning - The report notes a continuous year-on-year increase in air conditioning production for Q2 2025, with domestic production expected to rise significantly [5][65]. 5. Key Company Profit Forecasts and Investment Ratings - Key companies such as Juhua Co., Dongyue Group, and Sanmei Co. are highlighted as having strong profit growth prospects, with Juhua Co. expected to achieve a net profit of 1.52 yuan per share in 2025 [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The refrigerant industry is experiencing a high level of prosperity, with the company's performance expected to continue its strong growth [6] - The profitability of fluoropolymer materials is gradually recovering, driven by increased production and improved market conditions [6] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 4.61 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 250 million yuan, up 36.8% year-on-year [4][7] - The company's Q4 2024 results showed operating revenue of 1.23 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.6%, and a net profit of 105 million yuan, up 385% year-on-year [5] - For Q1 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 1.14 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.4%, and a net profit of 97 million yuan, up 161.7% year-on-year [10] Product Segment Performance - In the fluorocarbon chemical segment, the company generated revenue of 2.447 billion yuan in 2024, with an average gross margin of 20.37%, up 12.62 percentage points year-on-year [7][9] - The fluoropolymer materials segment achieved revenue of 1.581 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 17.38% [7][9] - The chemical raw materials segment saw a revenue decline to 436 million yuan in 2024, with a significant drop in average selling price [9] Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve operating revenues of 5.012 billion yuan, 5.433 billion yuan, and 5.853 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits of 491 million yuan, 589 million yuan, and 680 million yuan [11][13] - The expected price-to-earnings ratios for the next three years are 20, 17, and 15 times [11]

2025Q1 含氟高分子材料逐步向好，制冷剂业务保持向好。2025Q1 公司实现毛利率23.4%（同比 +6.2pct，环比+3.1pct），实现净利率8.6%（同比+4.9pct，环比持平），含氟高分子材料实现均价4.1 万 元/吨（同比-2.1%，环比+3.9%），随着公司邵武基地工艺不断优化以及行业触底反弹，含氟高分子材 料已开始逐步向好，氟碳化学品实现均价2.8 万元/吨（同比+21.1%，环比+10.1%），制冷剂价格加速 上涨。 展望后市，预计制冷剂内外贸有望进一步上涨。根据产业在线，4-6 月我国家用空调排产分别同比去年 预计提升9.1%/13.0%/15.9%，国补下面旺季需求彰显强劲。同时，"金三银四"需求旺季下，25Q2 空调 长协再度大幅上涨，氟务在线显示最新二季度制冷剂长协定价R32 承兑价格46600 元/吨（环比增加 14.77%），R410a 承兑价格47600 元/吨（环比增加14.42%）。根据百川盈孚，截至4 月24 日，企业报 价仍在不断上涨，巨化R22 报价达到36500 元/吨，永和R32 报价达到50500 元/吨，东阳光R134a 报价为 48000 元/吨，东阳 ...

Core Viewpoint - Yonghe Co., Ltd. has demonstrated significant growth in both revenue and profit in its 2024 annual report, indicating strong performance in the fluorochemical industry and effective utilization of market opportunities [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, Yonghe Co., Ltd. reported a revenue of 4.606 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.42%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 251 million yuan, up 36.83% [1]. - The company's net profit excluding non-recurring items reached 246 million yuan, reflecting a substantial growth of 117.8% year-on-year [1]. - For Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1.138 billion yuan, representing a 12.36% increase compared to the same period last year, with a net profit of 97.39 million yuan, up 161.66% [1]. Industry Position and Strategy - Yonghe Co., Ltd. has established itself as a comprehensive fluorochemical enterprise, covering the entire industry chain from raw material mining to production and sales, making it one of the most complete fluorochemical industry chains in China [1]. - The company has benefited from policy and market opportunities, achieving synergistic development in fluorocarbon chemicals, fluoropolymer materials, and fine fluorochemical products, with a nationwide sales network and international channels covering over 100 countries [1]. Market Dynamics - The implementation of production quotas for HFCs refrigerants in 2024 has altered the competitive landscape, leading to increased industry concentration and tighter supply-demand balance, which has driven significant price increases for refrigerants [2]. - In 2024, the fluorocarbon chemicals business generated a revenue of 2.4467353 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.78%, with an average gross margin of 20.37%, up 12.62% from the previous year [2]. - The company received a total quota of 61,400 tons for HCFCs and HECs refrigerants in 2025, with HFCs product quota at 58,200 tons, positioning it among the industry leaders [2]. Product Performance - Despite general pressure on fluoropolymer materials leading to a "volume increase, price decrease" scenario, certain products like HFP have shown price stabilization since Q4 2024, improving profitability [2]. - The sales volume of fluoropolymer materials reached 38,635.68 tons, a year-on-year increase of 40.59%, with revenue for this segment at 1.5811074 billion yuan, up 17.38% [2]. Future Outlook - Yonghe Co., Ltd. plans to continue its global business expansion and leverage its full industry chain advantages, focusing on high-end fluoropolymer materials, new environmentally friendly refrigerants, and fine fluorochemical development [3]. - The company aims to enhance its product variety and quality, striving to become a leading professional fluorochemical enterprise in China, characterized by comprehensive offerings, environmental sustainability, and high quality [3].