本文源自：智通财经网 国信证券此前指，制冷剂配额约束收紧为长期趋势方向，在此背景下，看好R32、R134a、R125等主流 制冷剂景气度将延续，价格长期仍有较大上行空间；对应制冷剂配额龙头企业有望保持长期高盈利水 平。此外看好液冷产业对氟化液与制冷剂需求的提升。建议关注PVDF、PTFE等含氟高分子价格修复。 智通财经获悉，东岳集团(00189)涨近6%，截至发稿，涨5.78%，报14.09港元，成交额3.02亿港元。 消息面上，据氟务在线，随着春节停产企业陆续复产，市场流动性有望在下周逐步回归，而春旺需求预 计将在3月后陆续释放，当前价格在库存低位与看涨预期的双重支撑下维持高位盘整。展望后市，出口 市场订单执行持续推进，叠加四月制冷展临近，多重利好有望为制冷剂市场带来新的变动契机，部分品 种或迎新一轮价格支撑。 ...

国信证券此前指，制冷剂配额约束收紧为长期趋势方向，在此背景下，看好R32、R134a、R125等主流 制冷剂景气度将延续，价格长期仍有较大上行空间；对应制冷剂配额龙头企业有望保持长期高盈利水 平。此外看好液冷产业对氟化液与制冷剂需求的提升。建议关注PVDF、PTFE等含氟高分子价格修复。 消息面上，据氟务在线，随着春节停产企业陆续复产，市场流动性有望在下周逐步回归，而春旺需求预 计将在3月后陆续释放，当前价格在库存低位与看涨预期的双重支撑下维持高位盘整。展望后市，出口 市场订单执行持续推进，叠加四月制冷展临近，多重利好有望为制冷剂市场带来新的变动契机，部分品 种或迎新一轮价格支撑。 智通财经APP获悉，东岳集团(00189)涨近6%，截至发稿，涨5.78%，报14.09港元，成交额3.02亿港元。 ...

国信证券此前指，制冷剂配额约束收紧为长期趋势方向，在此背景下，看好R32、R134a、R125等主流 制冷剂景气度将延续，价格长期仍有较大上行空间；对应制冷剂配额龙头企业有望保持长期高盈利水 平。此外看好液冷产业对氟化液与制冷剂需求的提升。建议关注PVDF、PTFE等含氟高分子价格修复。 东岳集团(00189)涨近6%，截至发稿，涨5.78%，报14.09港元，成交额3.02亿港元。 消息面上，据氟务在线，随着春节停产企业陆续复产，市场流动性有望在下周逐步回归，而春旺需求预 计将在3月后陆续释放，当前价格在库存低位与看涨预期的双重支撑下维持高位盘整。展望后市，出口 市场订单执行持续推进，叠加四月制冷展临近，多重利好有望为制冷剂市场带来新的变动契机，部分品 种或迎新一轮价格支撑。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the fluorochemical industry [5][10]. Core Insights - The fluorochemical industry is experiencing rapid growth, with prices of fluorinated polymers continuing to rise. The performance of fluorochemical companies is strong, supported by stable demand and supply dynamics [1][4]. - The long-term outlook for mainstream refrigerants such as R32, R134a, and R125 remains positive due to tightening quota constraints, which are expected to sustain price increases [5][9]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance - As of January 30, 2026, the fluorochemical index stood at 2155.24 points, up 6.77% from the end of December 2025. The index underperformed the Shenwan Chemical Index by 5.95 percentage points but outperformed the CSI 300 and Shanghai Composite indices by 5.12 and 3.01 percentage points, respectively [1][17]. 2. Refrigerant Market Review - In the first quarter of 2026, long-term contract prices for mainstream refrigerants are on the rise. R32 is expected to be priced at 61,200 CNY/ton, a 1.66% increase from the previous quarter, while R410A is projected at 55,100 CNY/ton, up 3.57% [2][22]. - The domestic prices for R22, R134a, R125, and R32 have shown increases, with R22 reaching 17,000 CNY/ton, R125 at 48,500 CNY/ton, and R134a maintaining at 58,000 CNY/ton [24][23]. 3. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply side of the fluorochemical industry is characterized by tight overall supply and low inventory levels among companies, which supports price increases. The demand side shows continued interest in stockpiling ahead of the holiday season [4][9]. - The production quotas for refrigerants in 2026 indicate a slight increase in the production capacity for R32, R125, and R134a, while R143a and R152a quotas have been reduced [4][79]. 4. Liquid Cooling Demand - The rapid growth of data centers is driving the demand for fluorinated liquids and refrigerants, as traditional air cooling methods are becoming insufficient. The market for liquid cooling solutions is expected to grow significantly, with projections indicating a market size exceeding 100 billion CNY by 2027 [64][70]. - Companies involved in the production of fluorinated liquids, such as Juhua Co., Dongyue Group, and others, are well-positioned to benefit from this trend [73][74]. 5. Key Company Profit Forecasts - Juhua Co. is expected to achieve a net profit of 3.54-3.94 billion CNY in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 80%-101%. Dongyue Group and Sanmei Co. are also projected to see significant profit increases [4][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the fluorochemical industry [5][10]. Core Insights - The fluorochemical industry is experiencing rapid growth, with prices of fluoropolymers continuing to rise. The industry index has shown a performance that outpaces the Shanghai Composite Index and the CSI 300 Index [1][5]. - The first quarter of 2026 is expected to see stable execution of long-term contracts for refrigerants, with significant price increases noted for R32 and R410A [2][5]. - The demand for fluorinated liquids and refrigerants is anticipated to increase due to the growth of liquid cooling technologies in data centers, driven by the need for efficient cooling solutions [3][9]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance - As of January 30, 2026, the fluorochemical index reached 2155.24 points, up 6.77% from the end of December 2025, while the chemical index rose by 12.72% [1][17]. - The Guosen Chemical Fluorochemical Price Index reported a 2.95% increase, indicating a positive trend in pricing for fluorochemical products [1][18]. 2. Refrigerant Market Review - Long-term contract prices for refrigerants are on the rise, with R32 priced at 61,200 CNY/ton and R410A at 55,100 CNY/ton, reflecting increases of 1.66% and 3.57% respectively from the previous quarter [2][22]. - The domestic prices for R22, R125, and R134a have also seen upward adjustments, with R22 now at 17,000 CNY/ton, up 1,000 CNY/ton from the previous month [2][24]. 3. Liquid Cooling Demand - The report highlights the urgent need for efficient cooling technologies in data centers, with liquid cooling solutions becoming increasingly favored over traditional air cooling due to their superior efficiency [3][64]. - The market for liquid cooling in data centers is projected to grow significantly, with a compound annual growth rate of 51.4% expected from 2019 to 2027 [3][70]. 4. Refrigerant Quota Announcements - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment has announced the refrigerant quotas for 2026, indicating a slight increase in production quotas for R32, R125, and R134a, while R141b's quota has been eliminated [4][79]. - The report suggests that the tightening of refrigerant quotas will support long-term price stability and growth in the industry [4][74]. 5. Company Profit Forecasts - Major companies in the fluorochemical sector, such as Juhua Co., Dongyue Group, and Sanmei Co., are expected to see significant profit growth in 2025, with Juhua's net profit projected to increase by 80%-101% [4][10].

Summary of Liquid Cooling Industry Update - Liminda Company Overview - Liminda is currently a certified supplier for NVIDIA, providing liquid cooling solutions [1] Core Insights and Arguments - The primary products supplied to NVIDIA include QD, followed by Manifold and cold plates [1] - The net profit margin for products supplied to NVIDIA is gradually increasing, currently reaching approximately 18%, with expectations to exceed 20% in the future [1] - Market expectations forecast revenue of 800 million by 2025; however, revenue already surpassed 150 million in January of this year, indicating a growing value in NVIDIA's liquid cooling products [1] Additional Important Information - The increasing net profit margin and early revenue achievements suggest a strong market position and potential for future growth in the liquid cooling industry [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that 德昌电机 (Dachang Electric) is expected to maintain stable operations in the first three quarters of the 2025-2026 fiscal year, with future growth driven by developments in robotics and liquid cooling industries, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] - The company has reported total revenue of $2.73 billion for the first three quarters of the 2025-2026 fiscal year, showing no year-on-year change; automotive product revenue decreased by 2%, primarily due to a 6% decline in the Asia-Pacific region, while industrial and commercial product revenue increased by 1%, mainly driven by a 6% rise in the EMEA region [1] - The company forecasts EPS of $0.28, $0.33, and $0.36 for the fiscal years 2025-2026, 2026-2027, and 2027-2028 respectively, and sets a target price of HKD 52.80 based on a PE ratio of 24 times for the fiscal year 2025-2026 [1] Group 2 - Uncertainties among automotive clients in the China region have negatively impacted the revenue trend for the automotive sector in the Asia-Pacific region; however, the company's efforts to enhance automation and vertical integration are expected to mitigate these negative effects [2] - The company aims to leverage its deep technical expertise and production experience in motors to expand its product offerings into humanoid robot actuators and joint modules, positioning itself for long-term leadership in the robotics sector [2] - With the booming AI industry requiring infrastructure support such as liquid cooling, the company, as a liquid cooling solution provider, is expected to capture a significant market share through its core liquid cooling components [2]

Group 1 - The AI hardware sector has seen a resurgence due to two main factors: Goldman Sachs' strategy meeting indicating a demand of 25 million units for 1.6T optical modules and 70 million units for 800G optical modules by 2026, and TSMC's fourth-quarter earnings report showing a 35% year-over-year profit increase, exceeding expectations and marking the eighth consecutive quarter of profit growth [1][2]. - TSMC's projected capital expenditure for 2026 is between $52 billion and $56 billion, following a total capital expenditure of $40.9 billion in 2025 [1]. - Macquarie's report highlights a constraint in the DRAM industry, stating that new capacity in the next two years can only support approximately 15GW of AI data center construction, which may lead to delays and reshuffling in global AI expansion plans [2]. Group 2 - Major companies provide core suppliers with demand and share guidance for the following year in November-December, allowing suppliers to prepare inventory. Optical modules are essential components for AI computing servers, and changes in their demand can reflect the overall demand for data centers [4]. - The anticipated demand for 800G and 1.6T optical modules is expected to remain strong, particularly for overseas computing needs, which serves as a response to Macquarie's report [4]. - Concerns regarding overseas computing demand for 2026-2027 have been alleviated by recent events, potentially leading to upward revisions in order expectations for liquid cooling manufacturers [5]. Group 3 - Updates in the liquid cooling industry include NV utilizing microchannel cold plate technology, with samples sent to a leading company [7]. - Google is expected to place orders exceeding $1 billion with a mainland liquid cooling leader in 2026, significantly higher than the previous expectation of $500-600 million [13]. - A whitelist for NV liquid cooling-cold plates may include names of certain mainland listed companies by March [13].

Group 1 - Dongyue Group (00189) saw a stock price increase of over 4%, currently at HKD 11.42 with a trading volume of HKD 137 million [1] - Guosen Securities reported that mainstream refrigerant long-term contract prices continued to rise in the first quarter, indicating a positive outlook for refrigerants like R32, R134a, and R125 due to tightening quota constraints [1] - The company is recognized as a leader in the fluorosilicone industry, with divisions producing and selling various products including polytetrafluoroethylene (PTFE), refrigerants, silicone rubber, dichloromethane, polyvinyl chloride (PVC), and caustic soda [1] Group 2 - The tightening of refrigerant quotas is expected to be a long-term trend, suggesting that leading companies in the refrigerant quota space will maintain high profitability levels [1] - There is an anticipated increase in demand for fluorinated liquids and refrigerants driven by the liquid cooling industry [1] - The report also suggests monitoring the price recovery of PVDF [1]

Core Viewpoint - Dongyue Group (00189) saw a stock price increase of over 4%, currently trading at HKD 11.42 with a transaction volume of HKD 137 million, driven by positive market sentiment regarding refrigerant prices and demand [1] Industry Summary - Guosen Securities reported that mainstream refrigerant long-term contract prices continued to rise in the first quarter, indicating a positive outlook for refrigerants like R32, R134a, and R125 due to tightening quota constraints [1] - The firm believes that leading companies in the refrigerant quota space are likely to maintain high profitability levels in the long term, supported by sustained demand from the liquid cooling industry for fluorinated liquids and refrigerants [1] - There is an expectation for price recovery in PVDF, which is relevant to the broader market dynamics [1] Company Summary - Dongyue Group is a leader in the fluorosilicone industry, with divisions engaged in the production and sale of various high polymer materials, refrigerants, and silicone products [1] - The high polymer materials division produces products such as polytetrafluoroethylene (PTFE), while the refrigerant division focuses on refrigerant products [1] - Other divisions include the production and sale of dichloromethane, polyvinyl chloride (PVC), and caustic soda [1]