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制冷剂高景气:配额驱动,量价齐升
市值风云· 2025-06-11 10:06
Group 1 - Fluorine is a highly reactive chemical element widely found in various organic and inorganic compounds, with fluorinated refrigerants being a significant branch of organic fluorine products [2] - The fluorochemical industry chain starts with fluorite, a strategic mineral resource in China, which has seen tightened domestic policies leading to a shift from a net exporter to a net importer since 2018, with net imports expected to reach 1.1 million tons in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 72% [2] - The price of fluorite has shown a long-term upward trend due to strengthened mining regulations, which directly impacts the cost structure of downstream fluorinated compounds [2] Group 2 - The first generation of refrigerants has been globally phased out due to significant damage to the ozone layer, while the second generation, which has a relatively lower impact, is also being phased out in developed countries and is subject to quota production in China, leading to continuous reductions [3] - According to the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, the production quota for second-generation refrigerants has decreased from 426,000 tons in 2013 to 164,000 tons by 2025, with R22 accounting for the highest share at 91% of the total quota, making it the mainstream product among second-generation refrigerants [4]
永和股份(605020):制冷剂高景气业绩延续高增,含氟高分子材料盈利逐步修复
Guohai Securities· 2025-04-29 08:03
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The refrigerant industry is experiencing a high level of prosperity, with the company's performance expected to continue its strong growth [6] - The profitability of fluoropolymer materials is gradually recovering, driven by increased production and improved market conditions [6] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 4.61 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 250 million yuan, up 36.8% year-on-year [4][7] - The company's Q4 2024 results showed operating revenue of 1.23 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.6%, and a net profit of 105 million yuan, up 385% year-on-year [5] - For Q1 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 1.14 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.4%, and a net profit of 97 million yuan, up 161.7% year-on-year [10] Product Segment Performance - In the fluorocarbon chemical segment, the company generated revenue of 2.447 billion yuan in 2024, with an average gross margin of 20.37%, up 12.62 percentage points year-on-year [7][9] - The fluoropolymer materials segment achieved revenue of 1.581 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 17.38% [7][9] - The chemical raw materials segment saw a revenue decline to 436 million yuan in 2024, with a significant drop in average selling price [9] Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve operating revenues of 5.012 billion yuan, 5.433 billion yuan, and 5.853 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits of 491 million yuan, 589 million yuan, and 680 million yuan [11][13] - The expected price-to-earnings ratios for the next three years are 20, 17, and 15 times [11]