来源：智通财经 高盛还预计，美联储2026年再降息两次，分别在3月和6月，最终将联邦基金利率降至3.00%–3.25%的区间。 该行的基准观点是，美联储将越来越相信，通胀放缓的趋势将持续下去，货币政策无需继续维持在明显具有限制性的水平。 高盛分析师表示，美联储短期内可能会保持谨慎的基调，但核心物价和薪资增长的轨迹表明，明年的政策立场可能会逐步向中性水平过渡。 此外，高盛指出，自美联储启动降息周期以来，金融环境已显著宽松，这有助于稳定企业借贷成本和家庭信贷流动。 该行预计，到2026年年中，美联储将完成新冠疫情时期调整以来的首次实质性宽松周期，届时利率将显著低于去年的峰值水平，但仍高于过去十年的 超宽松水平。 智通财经11月24日讯（编辑 卞纯）高盛最新预计，美联储将在12月的会议上实施连续第三次降息。该行认为，通胀放缓以及劳动力市场降温，为政 策制定者进一步放松货币政策提供了空间。 在高盛作出上述预测之际，由于美联储"三把手"、纽约联储主席威廉姆斯上周五发表了鸽派言论，称他认为"短期内仍有进一步降息的空间"，令12月 降息预期显著增强。 "明年的风险倾向于进行更多次降息，因为核心通胀方面的消息一直有利，而就业 ...

FOMC内部阵营分化已十分清晰。分析指出，若主席鲍威尔、副主席杰斐逊与威廉姆斯组成"降息支持阵营"，加 上三位特朗普任命的理事支持，仅能获得12名投票成员中的6票，距离多数通过仍差关键一票。 【环球网财经综合报道】随着12月货币政策会议临近，美联储内部关于降息的分歧日益公开化。上周末，两位关 键官员相继释放对立信号，凸显出通胀风险与劳动力市场降温之间的政策权衡困境。 作为今年拥有FOMC投票权的成员，波士顿联储主席苏珊・柯林斯周六明确表达了对12月降息的谨慎态度。她强 调，通胀领域仍存在风险，当前"温和限制性"的货币政策有助于确保通胀向2%目标回落。 与之形成鲜明对比的是，美联储三号人物、纽约联储主席约翰・威廉姆斯于周五释放了明确的降息信号。他表 示，劳动力市场下行风险已上升，而通胀上行压力有所缓解，"近期仍有进一步降息的空间"，以推动政策立场向 中性水平靠拢。 决策分歧的核心源于复杂的经济基本面。柯林斯指出，9月就业数据表现"喜忧参半"，新增岗位超出预期，但未改 变劳动力市场逐步降温的整体判断。 通胀方面，双方仍存在共识性担忧。柯林斯明确提及"通胀方面存在风险"；威廉姆斯虽认为通胀上行风险有所缓 解，但未否 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent non-farm payroll report for September indicates a clear dovish trend, suggesting a continued cooling in the U.S. labor market, which may influence future Federal Reserve policy decisions [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman stated that the current data is limited, but predictions can still be made based on trends, indicating a potential for policy adjustments [1] - Bowman expressed support for a 25 basis point rate cut if her vote is decisive in the next meeting, highlighting a shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy [1] - New York Fed President John Williams noted that as the labor market cools, the policy stance should be adjusted closer to neutral, reinforcing the dovish sentiment within the Fed [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - The remarks from both Bowman and Williams have been interpreted by the market as a stronger dovish signal from the Federal Reserve, increasing expectations for a rate cut in December [1]

Core Insights - The recent non-farm payroll report for September is perceived as "clearly dovish," indicating a continued cooling in the U.S. labor market [1] - Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman expressed a willingness to support a 25 basis point rate cut if her vote is decisive in the next meeting [1] - New York Fed President John Williams noted that there is still room for further rate cuts as the labor market cools, suggesting a shift towards a more neutral policy stance [1] Group 1 - The September non-farm payroll report reinforces evidence of a cooling labor market [1] - Michelle Bowman highlighted the limited data available to the Fed but emphasized that predictions can still be made based on trends [1] - The upcoming CPI data release will occur after the December FOMC meeting, leading to discussions based more on current labor and inflation trends [1] Group 2 - Williams and Bowman's comments are interpreted as a clearer dovish signal from the Fed, increasing expectations for a rate cut in December [1]

| | 期货 | 增减 | | --- | --- | --- | | 上期所指定交割金库 | 90426 | 0 | 美国9月非农就业人数预计增长5万人，较8月的2.2万人有所回升，但整体仍显示劳动力市场持续降温迹 象。失业率预计维持在4.3%不变。平均时薪环比预计上涨0.3%，年率预计持平于4.7%。 10月就业报告因拨款中断导致当期人口调查数据无法收集，已被取消发布。 上海期货交易所指定交割仓库期货周四（11月20日）仓单日报显示，黄金期货总计90426千克，今日仓 单较上一日持平。 沪金主力盘内高位回落，周四（11月20日）黄金期货开盘价941.98元/克，截至目前最高945.80元/克， 最低929.20元/克。截止发稿报932.56元/克，涨幅0.22%，成交量为945.80手，持仓为929.20手，日持仓 减少9001手。 上海期货交易所黄金期货仓单日报(单位：千克) ...

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's October meeting minutes indicate a slowdown in actual GDP growth during the first half of the year [1] - Labor market indicators suggest a gradual cooling without any signs of sharp deterioration [1] - Consumer price inflation has risen since the beginning of the year, maintaining a high level [1] Economic Indicators - The estimated overall inflation rate based on the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for September is 2.8% [1] - The core PCE inflation rate, excluding energy and most food price fluctuations, is also estimated at 2.8% for the same period [1] - The overall PCE inflation rate has increased by 0.5 percentage points compared to a year ago, while the core PCE inflation rate remains unchanged from the previous year [1]

美联储洛根：劳动力市场正在逐步降温，在我们降低通胀的过程中，这种情况是合适的。 来源：滚动播报 ...

多位美联储官员在不同场合发表讲话，罕见地形成一致基调：市场对12月再次降息的押注可能过于激 进。 Crossmark公司首席执行官兼首席投资官鲍勃·多尔（Bob Doll）在评论中提到，市场对降息寄予厚望， 但从美联储官员的最新表态来看，"更多是一种可能选项，而不是已经承诺的路径"，投资者需要为利率 在更高水平维持更长时间做好心理准备。 期货市场的定价也随之调整。根据芝商所FedWatch工具的数据，在官员密集发表偏谨慎言论后，交易 员对美联储在12月再次降息的押注，从此前逾六成回落至约五成附近，反映市场对 12 月降息的信心正 在降温。 官员集体降温12月降息预期 在印第安纳州埃文斯维尔大学的一场活动上，穆萨莱姆表示，经过今年两次降息后，"政策利率已更接 近中性，而非轻度紧缩"。在他看来，美国通胀目前仍在3%左右，高于2%的目标，"仍需要对抗偏高的 通胀，同时为劳动力市场提供一定支持"。他预计，美国经济在四季度会略显疲弱，但明年一季度有望 回到趋势增速甚至略高水平。 穆萨莱姆坦言，前期支持降息更多是出于对就业的担忧，而在通胀黏性仍存、经济表现相对有韧性的背 景下，接下来"需要更加谨慎"，以防政策过度宽松。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a significant slowdown in the U.S. labor market, with companies reducing hiring and increasing layoffs, which may provide the Federal Reserve with more room to lower interest rates in the coming months [3][6]. Group 1: Employment Trends - As of October 25, U.S. companies have been cutting an average of over 11,000 jobs per week, indicating a continued slowdown in hiring activity during the fall [3]. - In October, the private sector added 42,000 jobs, reversing a two-month decline, but the latest weekly estimates suggest a gradual deceleration in recruitment [3][5]. - The Challenger, Gray & Christmas report indicated that U.S. companies announced 153,000 layoffs in October, a 183% increase from September, marking the highest level for this period since 2003 [5]. Group 2: Economic Sentiment - The University of Michigan's consumer confidence index fell to 50.3, the lowest in over three years, reflecting rising uncertainty about job prospects and income [5]. - ADP's data shows that job growth in October was primarily in traditional sectors like trade, transportation, and utilities, while professional services and information sectors continued to decline [5]. Group 3: Interest Rate Expectations - Analysts suggest that the Federal Reserve may lower interest rates by 25 basis points at its upcoming meeting in December, with a 63% probability of this occurring according to the FedWatch tool [6]. - The ongoing government shutdown has led to a lack of official employment data, making private sector reports like ADP and Challenger increasingly important for assessing economic conditions [6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the slowdown in U.S. job growth is more likely due to a decrease in worker demand rather than a decline in labor supply caused by tightened immigration policies [1] - Monthly job additions in the U.S. have decreased from approximately 150,000 in 2024 to about 50,000 in the first half of 2025 [1] - Daly noted that the simultaneous decline in labor demand and supply has kept the unemployment rate stable [1] Group 2 - The conclusions regarding the labor market are crucial for the debate on whether the Federal Reserve should further lower interest rates [2] - Daly believes that the impact of tariffs on prices has not led to widespread and sustained inflation dynamics, remaining largely confined to the goods sector [2] - The Federal Reserve needs to assess whether the U.S. economy is still at risk of inflation or if it is on the verge of an AI-driven productivity boom that could promote growth without raising prices [2]