多位美联储官员在不同场合发表讲话，罕见地形成一致基调：市场对12月再次降息的押注可能过于激 进。 Crossmark公司首席执行官兼首席投资官鲍勃·多尔（Bob Doll）在评论中提到，市场对降息寄予厚望， 但从美联储官员的最新表态来看，"更多是一种可能选项，而不是已经承诺的路径"，投资者需要为利率 在更高水平维持更长时间做好心理准备。 期货市场的定价也随之调整。根据芝商所FedWatch工具的数据，在官员密集发表偏谨慎言论后，交易 员对美联储在12月再次降息的押注，从此前逾六成回落至约五成附近，反映市场对 12 月降息的信心正 在降温。 官员集体降温12月降息预期 在印第安纳州埃文斯维尔大学的一场活动上，穆萨莱姆表示，经过今年两次降息后，"政策利率已更接 近中性，而非轻度紧缩"。在他看来，美国通胀目前仍在3%左右，高于2%的目标，"仍需要对抗偏高的 通胀，同时为劳动力市场提供一定支持"。他预计，美国经济在四季度会略显疲弱，但明年一季度有望 回到趋势增速甚至略高水平。 穆萨莱姆坦言，前期支持降息更多是出于对就业的担忧，而在通胀黏性仍存、经济表现相对有韧性的背 景下，接下来"需要更加谨慎"，以防政策过度宽松。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a significant slowdown in the U.S. labor market, with companies reducing hiring and increasing layoffs, which may provide the Federal Reserve with more room to lower interest rates in the coming months [3][6]. Group 1: Employment Trends - As of October 25, U.S. companies have been cutting an average of over 11,000 jobs per week, indicating a continued slowdown in hiring activity during the fall [3]. - In October, the private sector added 42,000 jobs, reversing a two-month decline, but the latest weekly estimates suggest a gradual deceleration in recruitment [3][5]. - The Challenger, Gray & Christmas report indicated that U.S. companies announced 153,000 layoffs in October, a 183% increase from September, marking the highest level for this period since 2003 [5]. Group 2: Economic Sentiment - The University of Michigan's consumer confidence index fell to 50.3, the lowest in over three years, reflecting rising uncertainty about job prospects and income [5]. - ADP's data shows that job growth in October was primarily in traditional sectors like trade, transportation, and utilities, while professional services and information sectors continued to decline [5]. Group 3: Interest Rate Expectations - Analysts suggest that the Federal Reserve may lower interest rates by 25 basis points at its upcoming meeting in December, with a 63% probability of this occurring according to the FedWatch tool [6]. - The ongoing government shutdown has led to a lack of official employment data, making private sector reports like ADP and Challenger increasingly important for assessing economic conditions [6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the slowdown in U.S. job growth is more likely due to a decrease in worker demand rather than a decline in labor supply caused by tightened immigration policies [1] - Monthly job additions in the U.S. have decreased from approximately 150,000 in 2024 to about 50,000 in the first half of 2025 [1] - Daly noted that the simultaneous decline in labor demand and supply has kept the unemployment rate stable [1] Group 2 - The conclusions regarding the labor market are crucial for the debate on whether the Federal Reserve should further lower interest rates [2] - Daly believes that the impact of tariffs on prices has not led to widespread and sustained inflation dynamics, remaining largely confined to the goods sector [2] - The Federal Reserve needs to assess whether the U.S. economy is still at risk of inflation or if it is on the verge of an AI-driven productivity boom that could promote growth without raising prices [2]

Core Viewpoint - Australia's unemployment rate rose to 4.5% in September, the highest level since November 2021, indicating a cooling labor market [1] Labor Market Data - The seasonally adjusted employment increased by approximately 14,900 people month-on-month and by about 1.3% year-on-year, reaching 14.64 million [1] - The number of unemployed individuals rose by approximately 33,900 month-on-month and by 12.6% year-on-year, totaling 684,000 [1] - Among the unemployed, the number of men increased by about 24,000 and women by approximately 10,000 [1] Labor Participation Rate - The labor participation rate increased by 0.1 percentage points to 67%, slightly below the historical high of 67.2% recorded earlier this year [1] Economic Implications - Economists suggest that the latest data indicates a cooling labor market, with the rising participation rate potentially reflecting more individuals entering the workforce due to cost-of-living pressures [1] - The unexpected rise in the unemployment rate raises the likelihood of the Reserve Bank of Australia considering another interest rate cut in November, following three rate cuts earlier this year [1]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that data since the July meeting shows a significant cooling in the labor market [1] Group 1 - The labor market has experienced a substantial decline in activity since the last Federal Reserve meeting [1]

Core Points - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized the importance of community banks in the U.S. financial system, highlighting their close ties to local economies and customers [2] - New York Fed President John Williams expressed support for further interest rate cuts within the year to address potential risks of a labor market slowdown [3][4] - Market expectations indicate a high probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, with recent meeting minutes reflecting concerns over weak employment data and inflation slightly above the Fed's target [6] Group 1: Federal Reserve Leadership Statements - Powell stated that community banks play a crucial role in understanding local economic conditions and customer needs, and the Fed is committed to tailoring regulations to support their operations [2] - Williams noted a gradual cooling in the labor market over the past year, with job vacancies and turnover rates declining, but he does not foresee an imminent recession [3][4] Group 2: Economic Outlook and Interest Rate Expectations - Williams highlighted that tariffs have had a limited impact on inflation, estimating they raised inflation by 0.25 to 0.5 percentage points, but overall inflation is stabilizing [3][4] - The market anticipates a 94.1% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut in October, with the Fed's recent meeting minutes indicating a consensus on the need for further rate reductions due to economic slowdown concerns [6]

Group 1 - The UK labor market is experiencing a downturn, with a decrease of 8,000 employees in August, marking the seventh consecutive decline, which is slightly better than the economists' forecast of a 12,000 drop [1] - The wage growth rate, excluding bonuses, has slowed to 4.8%, the lowest in three years, down from 5% in the previous period [1] - The unemployment rate remains at a four-year high of 4.7%, while the number of job vacancies continues to decline [1] Group 2 - Inflation has reached an 18-month high, driven by rising food and energy costs, with the expected inflation rate at 3.8%, nearly double the Bank of England's target of 2% [2] - Traders have reduced bets on interest rate cuts by the Bank of England, with expectations that the Monetary Policy Committee will maintain the base rate at 4% [2]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has significantly revised its forecast for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, now predicting three consecutive 25 basis point cuts in September, November, and December 2024, along with additional cuts in 2026, which is more aggressive than market expectations [1][2]. Group 1: Reasons for the Aggressive Shift - Inflation is cooling faster than expected, with key indicators like CPI and PCE showing a quicker decline, particularly in stubborn areas like housing inflation, providing data support for earlier and faster rate cuts [2]. - The labor market is showing signs of significant cooling, with non-farm employment, job openings, and unemployment rate data indicating a return to a balanced state, alleviating concerns about a wage-inflation spiral [3]. - There are increasing risks of economic recession, as leading economic indicators suggest a weakening momentum in the U.S. economy, prompting the Fed to adopt a preemptive rate cut strategy to avoid a hard landing [4]. Group 2: Comparison with Market Expectations - Morgan Stanley's new prediction of three rate cuts in 2024 contrasts with the previous market expectation of only two cuts [5]. - For 2025, while the market anticipated 2-3 cuts, Morgan Stanley forecasts four cuts, indicating a faster pace [5]. - Morgan Stanley's forecast includes three rate cuts in 2026, a prediction rarely made by other institutions, highlighting a more aggressive approach compared to the market's cautious stance [5]. Group 3: Implications for Global Markets - If Morgan Stanley's predictions materialize, global asset prices could undergo significant revaluation, with gold being the biggest beneficiary, potentially reaching historical highs due to lower real interest rates and a weaker dollar [6][7]. - U.S. stocks may experience a liquidity-driven rally, although concerns about economic recession could limit gains, particularly affecting bank stocks due to narrowing interest margins [8][9]. - The dollar's dominance may face challenges, with a faster rate cut path leading to a narrowing of interest rate differentials, potentially resulting in a long-term decline in the dollar index and a rebound for non-U.S. currencies [10]. - Cryptocurrencies may see a resurgence in demand as global liquidity expectations improve, benefiting from both their status as risk assets and as "digital gold" [11][12]. Group 4: Investment Strategies - Long-term investors are advised to accumulate "rate cut beneficiary" assets, such as gold, which should constitute 5%-10% of their portfolio [13]. - Investors should focus on high-quality tech and growth stocks with strong cash flows for long-term holding [14]. - Short-term traders should monitor economic data closely, as stronger-than-expected data could challenge Morgan Stanley's aggressive predictions, necessitating risk management strategies [15]. - All investors should maintain flexibility and avoid heavy bets based on a single prediction, ensuring a balanced and adaptable asset allocation [16].

Group 1 - In August, U.S. job growth significantly slowed, with only 54,000 jobs added, below the market expectation of 68,000 and a sharp decline from the revised 104,000 in July [1][3] - The labor market is showing signs of cooling, with reduced job vacancies and a slowdown in wage growth, indicating a shift towards a more relaxed supply-demand relationship in the labor market [1][5] - The ADP report indicates that while overall hiring has slowed, sectors like leisure, hospitality, and construction continue to see growth [3][5] Group 2 - The manufacturing, transportation, and education sectors experienced negative job growth in August, highlighting a broader trend of hiring deceleration across both goods-producing and service sectors [5][7] - The Challenger report shows that hiring intentions have dropped to the lowest level since 2009, while layoffs have increased significantly, reflecting a cautious approach from employers [5][7] - Market analysts agree that the slight cooling of the labor market is a fact, leading to a consensus that the Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in the upcoming meeting [5][7] Group 3 - The upcoming non-farm payroll report is anticipated to be a critical reference for the Federal Reserve's decision, with expectations of a 75,000 increase in non-farm jobs and a slight rise in the unemployment rate [7] - Following the ADP data release, U.S. stock futures showed minimal volatility, with the Nasdaq 100 futures down approximately 0.25%, and the dollar index remaining stable around 98.25 [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that there is currently no evidence that higher tariffs on imported goods are causing an overall surge in inflation trends, according to New York Fed President Williams [2] - Williams predicts that interest rate cuts will become appropriate over time, although he did not specify the timing or pace of these cuts [2][3] - The labor market has shown signs of cooling due to high interest rates, with significant slowdowns in job growth since May [2][3] Group 2 - Williams expects the unemployment rate to gradually rise to around 4.5% next year due to the combined impact of trade and immigration policies [3] - Short-term inflation rates may spike above 3%, but are projected to decline to 2.5% by 2026 and further to 2% by 2027, aligning with the Fed's inflation target [3] - The path of interest rates post-September meeting remains unclear, with some officials advocating for a series of rate cuts in the next three to six months [4]