Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a cooling labor market in the U.S., indicated by a significant drop in job vacancies, which may influence future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2][3][4]. Labor Market Data - As of July 31, job vacancies decreased by 176,000 to 7.181 million, marking the lowest level since September of the previous year and the second-lowest since the pandemic began in 2020 [3]. - The hiring rate remained unchanged at 3.3%, the lowest level since 2013, excluding the pandemic period [3]. - The number of layoffs increased by 12,000 to 1.808 million, with the private sector layoff rate reaching 1.3%, up from a historical low of 1% a year ago, but still below the 1.4% level from 2010-2019 [3]. Consumer Spending Impact - Changes in the job market may begin to affect consumer spending, potentially hindering economic expansion. Personal consumption expenditure growth was 1.6% in Q2, but is expected to slow to 1.3% in Q3 and 1.1% in the last quarter of the year due to rising prices and a slowing job market [4]. Policy Outlook - The upcoming non-farm payroll report is anticipated to show a modest increase of 75,000 jobs in August, falling below the critical threshold of 100,000, with the unemployment rate expected to rise by 0.1 percentage points to 4.3% [6]. - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell indicated a potential for interest rate cuts, acknowledging rising risks in the labor market, while inflation remains a concern [7]. - Market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut in September exceed 90% [7]. - Discrepancies exist among Federal Reserve officials regarding the pace of further easing, with some suggesting that current policy rates are only slightly restrictive [7][8]. Economic Uncertainty - The impact of tariffs continues to create significant uncertainty, with expectations that the effects will last for two to three quarters before dissipating, although they could persist longer [7]. - The labor market is described as "low hiring, low firepower," indicating that individuals who lose jobs are finding it increasingly difficult to secure new employment [3].

美国劳动力市场出现进一步降温迹象。智通财经APP获悉，美国劳工统计局(BLS)周三公布的最新数据 显示，7月美国职位空缺降至718万个，创下近10个月新低。这一结果逊于外媒调查经济学家的预期中值 738万个，显示企业在招聘方面更加谨慎，反映出在政策不确定性加剧的背景下，劳动力需求逐步减 弱。 从行业分布来看，医疗保健、零售贸易以及休闲和酒店业是7月职位空缺减少的主要来源。其中，作为 今年推动就业增长主力的医疗保健领域职位空缺降至2021年以来的最低水平。Renaissance Macro Research首席经济研究员Neil Dutta指出："职位空缺的下降主要集中在医疗及社会援助，以及州和地方 政府部门。这些行业通常不随经济周期波动，是近期支撑就业增长的关键领域。如果这些'非周期性'部 门需求减弱，整体就业增长将面临显著压力。" 受此影响，美国国债收益率在数据公布后下滑，标普500指数则维持涨势。 职位空缺下滑表明企业在招聘决策上更加审慎。桑坦德美国资本市场首席经济学家Stanley表示："企业 目前处于观望状态，许多原本计划中的招聘被搁置，主要是等待政策前景，尤其是关税政策更加明 朗。"近期，美国总统特 ...

Global Economic Overview - The US economy is in a recovery phase, with the S&P 500 index reaching new highs, while US Treasury yields remain stable[1] - The US has implemented a new round of tariffs, with a trade agreement framework reached with multiple countries, though key terms are yet to be executed[1] - Inflation risks coexist with a cooling labor market, leaving the Federal Reserve in a difficult position regarding monetary policy[1] Domestic Economic Conditions - The real estate sector in China continues to face contraction pressures, with the effectiveness of policies like "trade-in for new" diminishing[1] - Government policies in August leaned more towards fiscal measures rather than monetary easing, maintaining high real interest rates that suppress economic vitality[1] - The demand remains weak, with low price levels persisting in the domestic market[1] Asset Allocation Insights - International stock markets are the primary source of profit, benefiting from a weaker dollar and improved international trade conditions[1] - The report suggests a bullish outlook on copper prices and a hedging strategy with oil, while being bearish on international bond markets[1] - The global asset allocation index indicates a shift towards equities, particularly in non-US markets, as the dollar weakens[1] Risks and Challenges - Risks include domestic macroeconomic policies falling short of expectations, potential overseas economic recession, commodity price volatility, and unexpected shifts in Federal Reserve monetary policy[2]

Group 1: Inflation Data - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July increased by 2.7% year-on-year, unchanged from June, and rose by 0.2% month-on-month, lower than June's 0.3% increase [1] - The core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, rose by 3.1% year-on-year, up from 2.9% in June, and the month-on-month increase was 0.3%, the largest since January [1] - Service prices have rebounded, indicating challenges in controlling inflation, despite no significant price increases in goods directly related to tariffs [1] Group 2: Economic Analysis - The U.S. inflation situation is complex, with strong resilience observed; tariff-related price increases are noted in certain services, such as medical insurance and furniture [4] - Despite rising prices, overall inflation has not deteriorated significantly due to a cooling labor market, with a downward revision of non-farm employment numbers and a first-half economic growth rate of only 1.4% [5] - The potential impact of recent data on Federal Reserve monetary policy is highlighted, with President Trump advocating for immediate interest rate cuts to lower government refinancing costs and support the economy ahead of the midterm elections [7] Group 3: Market Expectations - There is a significant probability that the Federal Reserve may resume interest rate cuts in September, especially if labor market data continues to worsen, despite inflation being above target [8] - Investor sentiment is leaning towards a rate cut in September, influenced by the upcoming Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index data expected at the end of August [8]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve official Williams describes the labor market as experiencing a "moderate and gradual cooling," while still remaining robust overall [1] Labor Market Conditions - The unemployment rate slightly increased to 4.2% in July from 4.1% in June, indicating a marginal rise in joblessness [1] - The downward revision of employment growth data for May and June is highlighted as a significant focus of the recent report [1] Interest Rate Outlook - Williams expresses caution regarding the market's high expectations (up to 80%) for a rate cut in September, indicating that he does not fully endorse this outlook [1] - He acknowledges the challenges faced by market participants and policymakers alike in interpreting signals from the economy [1] Economic Growth Projections - The expectation is set for the U.S. economic growth to slow to approximately 1% this year, with a potential recovery anticipated by 2026 [1]

Core Insights - The U.S. job growth has significantly slowed down over the past three months, with an increase in the unemployment rate, indicating a cooling labor market amid widespread economic uncertainty [1] Employment Data - According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, non-farm payrolls increased by 73,000 in July, with the previous two months' data revised down by nearly 260,000 [1] - The average non-farm employment growth over the past three months is only 35,000, marking the worst performance since the COVID-19 pandemic [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. labor market showed significant cooling in July, with non-farm payrolls increasing by only 73,000, the smallest gain since October of the previous year, and well below the market expectation of 110,000 [3][4] - The revisions for previous months were substantial, with May's job additions revised down from 144,000 to 19,000 and June's from 147,000 to 14,000, resulting in a total downward revision of 258,000 jobs for May and June combined [4] - The unemployment rate in July rose to 4.2%, aligning with market expectations, while the average hourly earnings year-over-year increased to 3.9%, the highest since March, slightly exceeding the expected 3.8% [4] Group 2 - The healthcare sector led job growth in July, adding 55,000 new positions, while the social assistance sector contributed an additional 18,000 jobs [4] - Federal government employment continued to decline, with a reduction of 12,000 jobs in July, reflecting ongoing layoffs in the "government efficiency department" [4] - The report was characterized as a game-changer for the labor market, indicating a rapid deterioration, although it has not yet reached crisis levels [5] Group 3 - Following the employment data release, market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September surged to 73%, up from approximately 40% prior to the non-farm report [5] - The uncertainty stemming from President Trump's tariff policies has led U.S. companies to reduce hiring, with recent increases in tariffs on Canada and other countries contributing to this trend [5] - The report has prompted significant market reactions, including a spike in spot gold prices and a drop in the U.S. dollar index [4]

Core Viewpoint - Eurozone bond yields fell across the board as the market increased bets on a potential interest rate cut by the European Central Bank (ECB) following disappointing U.S. non-farm payroll data [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - U.S. employment growth showed signs of slowing down, with previous values significantly revised down, indicating a notable cooling in the labor market [1] - This development has heightened expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut next month [1] Group 2: Interest Rate Expectations - The probability of an ECB rate cut by the end of the year has risen to 60%, up from 50% prior to the data release [1] - The likelihood of a rate cut by March 2026 has increased to 80%, compared to the previous 65% [1] Group 3: Bond Yield Movements - The yield on Germany's 10-year government bonds decreased by 1.5 basis points to 2.68% [1] - The yield on Germany's 2-year bonds fell by 4 basis points to 1.91%, having previously reached a high of 1.967% since early April [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. labor market showed significant cooling in July, with employment growth slowing sharply and the unemployment rate rising to 4.2% [1] Employment Data - Non-farm payrolls increased by 73,000 in July, significantly below the expected increase of 110,000 [1] - The June employment figure was revised down from an initial estimate of 147,000 to just 14,000 [1] Unemployment Rate - The unemployment rate rose from 4.1% in June to 4.2% in July, indicating a deterioration in the labor market [1] Federal Reserve Response - The Federal Reserve maintained the benchmark interest rate in the range of 4.25% to 4.50% [1] - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's comments after the decision diminished market expectations for a return to policy easing in September [1] - Powell described the labor market as being in a "balanced state" with synchronized declines in supply and demand, but acknowledged the dynamic suggests "downside risks" [1]

Core Insights - The U.S. private sector job market showed unexpected growth in July, with ADP reporting an increase of 104,000 jobs, the largest since March, surpassing the market expectation of 75,000 jobs [1][4] - Despite the positive job growth, there is a notable cooling in the overall labor market, as the proportion of consumers finding it "hard to get a job" has reached a near four-and-a-half-year high, coinciding with a rising trend in initial unemployment claims [1][4] Employment Sector Analysis - The most significant feature of the July job market is sectoral differentiation, with leisure and hospitality, as well as financial activities, being the main hiring sectors, while education and health services have seen layoffs for the fourth consecutive month [4] - The construction sector added 15,000 jobs, showing an acceleration from June's 9,000 jobs; manufacturing saw a notable slowdown, adding only 7,000 jobs in July compared to 15,000 in June; trade, transportation, and utilities added 18,000 jobs, up from 14,000 in June; financial services rebounded strongly with 28,000 new jobs, reversing a loss of 14,000 in June [4] - Professional and business services improved slightly from a decline of 56,000 jobs in June, adding only 9,000 jobs in July, indicating that future trends need to be monitored [4] Economic Outlook - ADP's Chief Economist Nela Richardson noted that current hiring and wage data reflect a healthy economic state, with employers gaining confidence in consumer demand; however, private sector hiring remains significantly below last year's average levels, and companies are becoming increasingly cautious in staffing decisions amid heightened policy uncertainty [4] - Initial unemployment claims remain low, but the extended reemployment cycle for unemployed workers indicates a decline in labor market fluidity [4] - The market anticipates that the upcoming U.S. Labor Department's non-farm payroll report will show an increase of 110,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate potentially rising from 4.1% in June to 4.2% in July [5] - Salary growth remains stable, with a 4.4% year-over-year increase for retained employees and a 7% increase for job switchers; the service sector recovery is a primary driver of job growth, although education and health sectors have experienced a net loss of jobs this year [5]