Report Summary on the Shanghai Tin Industry 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report suggests a light - position long - buying strategy, with a reference range of 265,000 - 272,000 yuan/ton. The macro - environment has positive factors such as the upcoming ten - key industries' steady - growth work plan and the start of a major hydropower project. The fundamental situation shows limited supply due to delayed mining production in some regions and low tin - ore processing fees, along with weak demand in some downstream industries. Technically, the bullish sentiment is strong, and it has broken through the MA10, so attention should be paid to the resistance at the 270,000 yuan/ton mark [2][3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Tin futures main contract is 268,520 yuan/ton, up 1,270 yuan; the LME 3 - month tin price is 33,675 US dollars/ton, up 320 US dollars. The 8 - 9 month contract price of Shanghai Tin is - 280 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan; the main contract position is 16,761 lots, down 1,931 lots. The net position of the top 20 in futures is - 272 lots, down 222 lots. The LME tin total inventory is 1,885 tons, down 50 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange tin inventory is 7,148 tons, up 51 tons; the LME tin cancelled warrants are 75 tons, down 170 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange tin warrants are 6,791 tons, down 18 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 266,300 yuan/ton, down 900 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 266,510 yuan/ton, down 1,310 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai Tin main contract is - 2,220 yuan/ton, down 2,170 yuan; the LME tin premium (0 - 3) is 53 US dollars/ton, up 9 US dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 12,100 tons, down 2,900 tons. The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 253,500 yuan/ton, down 1,200 yuan; the processing fee is 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average price of 60% tin concentrate is 257,500 yuan/ton, down 1,200 yuan; the processing fee is 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, down 1,600 tons; the monthly import volume of refined tin is 3,762.32 tons, up 143.24 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bars in Gejiu is 172,670 yuan/ton, down 1,200 yuan. The cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 1.6014 million tons, up 144,500 tons; the monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 140,700 tons, down 33,900 tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - On July 21, 2025, the 1 - year LPR was 3.0%, and the 5 - year LPR was 3.5%. In the first half of 2025, the national economy was generally stable and improving, and the fiscal policy continued to be proactive. Fitch downgraded the outlook of 25% of US industries in 2025 to "deteriorated" [2]. 3.7 Technical and Operational Suggestions - Technically, the bullish sentiment is strong, breaking through the MA10, and attention should be paid to the resistance at the 270,000 yuan/ton mark. It is recommended to go long with a light position, with a reference range of 265,000 - 272,000 yuan/ton [2][3].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Cautiously bullish [1] - L: Cautiously bullish [1] - PP: Cautiously bullish [1] - PVC: Cautiously bullish [1] - PX: Cautiously bullish [1] - PTA/PR: Cautiously bullish [1] - Ethylene glycol: Bullish [1] - Glass: Bullish [2] - Soda ash: Bullish [2] - Caustic soda: Cautiously bullish [2] - Methanol: Cautiously bullish [2] - Urea: Bullish [2] - Asphalt: Bearish [2] - Propylene: Cautiously bullish [2] 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude oil: The peak - season market is in the second half, and oil prices are oscillating weakly due to EU sanctions on Russia and OPEC+ expansion [1][3][4] - LPG: With stable cost, rising downstream开工率, it is short - term bullish, and previous short positions can take profit [1][6][7] - L: It is mainly following market sentiment for a short - term rebound, affected by anti - involution to a limited extent [1][10][11] - PP: The spot price has turned from falling to rising, with reduced inventory pressure and expected high export growth [1][13][14] - PVC: Driven by policy expectations and rising coal prices, it is short - term bullish despite weak fundamentals [1][17][18] - PX: Supply - demand is in tight balance, with high inventory and macro - policy support, suggesting holding long positions [1][20][21] - PTA/PR: Supply pressure is expected to increase, but short - term bullish due to anti - involution policies [1][23][24] - Ethylene glycol: Supply and demand are slightly loose, but with macro - policy support, it is recommended to go long at low levels [1][26][27] - Glass: Policy expectations boost the market, with inventory de - stocking and rising prices [2][29][31] - Soda ash: Despite high supply and inventory, it is following market sentiment and recommended to go long on pullbacks [2][32][33] - Caustic soda: Supply is approaching saturation, but demand from alumina is improving, and the market is bullish [2][34][35] - Methanol: Supply - demand has improved, and it is oscillating strongly due to macro - policies [2][36] - Urea: Supply is increasing, but with policy support and export expectations, it is recommended to go long lightly [2] - Asphalt: Cost is under pressure in the medium - long term, and it is recommended to go short lightly [2] - Propylene: Low valuation provides support, and it is recommended to go long at low levels [2] 3. Summaries by Variety Crude oil - Market situation: International oil prices fell overnight, with WTI down 0.27%, Brent down 0.35%, and SC up 1.63%. The current weak - expectation and strong - reality situation has support at the bottom, but OPEC+ expansion brings downward pressure [3][4] - Strategy: Lightly short and buy call options for protection, with SC in the range of [500 - 515] [1][5] LPG - Market situation: On July 20, the PG main contract closed at 4068 yuan/ton, up 0.15%. The cost is stable, downstream PDH开工率 is rising, and port inventory is accumulating [6][7] - Strategy: Take profit on previous short positions, with PG in the range of [3950 - 4050] [1][8] L - Market situation: The absolute price has low - valuation support, and it follows market sentiment for a short - term rebound. Social inventory has accumulated for 3 weeks, but the off - season for agricultural films is approaching an end [10][11] - Strategy: Try to go long on short - term pullbacks, with L in the range of [7200 - 7400] [1][12] PP - Market situation: The spot price has rebounded, with inventory de - stocking and increased unexpected maintenance. 1 - 6 months' exports increased by 21% year - on - year [13][14] - Strategy: Try to go long on short - term pullbacks, with PP in the range of [7000 - 7200] [1][15] PVC - Market situation: Driven by policy expectations and rising coal prices, the market is bullish in the short term, but inventory is accumulating, and the fundamental weakness limits the rebound space [17][18] - Strategy: Try to go long on short - term pullbacks, with V in the range of [5100 - 5300] [1][19] PX - Market situation: Supply - demand is in tight balance, inventory is high, and macro - policies are favorable. The PXN spread is not low, and the basis is narrowing [20][21] - Strategy: Hold existing long positions and consider adding long positions on pullbacks, with PX in the range of [6820 - 6910] [1][22] PTA/PR - Market situation: Supply pressure is expected to increase, and demand is weak. However, it is short - term bullish due to anti - involution policies [23][24] - Strategy: Add long positions on pullbacks, with TA in the range of [4740 - 4810] [1][25] Ethylene glycol - Market situation: Supply and demand are slightly loose, but low inventory and macro - policies support the price. Import and arrival are low [26][27] - Strategy: Try to go long at low levels, with EG in the range of [4405 - 4450] [1][28] Glass - Market situation: Policy expectations boost the market, inventory has been de - stocking for 4 weeks, and the spot price has increased [29][31] - Strategy: Go long based on the 5 - day moving average, with FG in the range of [1160 - 1200] [2][31] Soda ash - Market situation: High supply and inventory, but following market sentiment. The inventory has reached a new high, and the supply - demand surplus remains [32][33] - Strategy: Go long on pullbacks, with SA in the range of [1290 - 1350] [2] Caustic soda - Market situation: Supply is approaching saturation, but demand from alumina is improving, and the market is bullish [34][35] - Strategy: Go long cautiously based on the 10 - day moving average, with SH in the range of [2560 - 2620] [2] Methanol - Market situation: Supply - demand has improved, and it is oscillating strongly due to macro - policies [36] - Strategy: Try to go long on pullbacks, with MA in the range of [2385 - 2435] [2] Urea - Market situation: Supply is increasing, but with policy support and export expectations [2] - Strategy: Try to go long lightly, with UR in the range of [1800 - 1835] [2] Asphalt - Market situation: Cost is under pressure in the medium - long term, and supply and demand are both increasing, but inventory is accumulating [2] - Strategy: Go short lightly, with BU in the range of [3580 - 3680] [2] Propylene - Market situation: Low valuation provides support, and it is recommended to go long at low levels [2] - Strategy: Go long unilaterally at low levels and consider shorting the 1 - 2 month spread or PP processing fees, with a focus on the range of [6250 - 6600] [2]

请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 旺季行情进入下半程，油价震荡偏弱。欧盟推出新一轮对俄罗斯制裁措施， 对俄原油制裁上限降至 50 美元/桶左右；油价进入下半程，随着 OPEC+ | | 原油 | 反弹偏空 | 逐渐扩产，油价供给过剩压力逐渐上升，油价下行压力较大，重点关注供 | | | | 给端 OPEC 实际增产量与美国产量。策略：轻仓试空并购买看涨期权保护。 | | | | SC【505-520】 | | | | 成本端企稳，下游开工率提高，短线偏震荡，前期空单可止盈。成本端油 | | LPG | 空单止盈 | 价企稳，美国丙烷处于消费淡季，供给相对充足；下游燃烧需求处于淡季， | | | | 化工需求回升，PDH 开工率上升；供给和库存中性偏空，国内商品量小幅 | | | | 下降，港口库存累库。策略：短线震荡，空单可止盈。PG【4050-4150】 | | | | 市场情绪好转，绝对价格低估值支撑。基本面格局偏弱，华北标品现货价 格持续下跌，社会库存连续 3 周累库，近期装置重启增加，预计本周产 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the market trends of various commodities and financial products, including energy, metals, agricultural products, and financial derivatives, and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on the current market situation and future expectations [2][3][4] - The market is influenced by multiple factors such as international policies, economic data, supply and demand relationships, and seasonal patterns, and the trends of different products vary [15][16][20] Summary by Category Energy - **Crude Oil**: Last week, international oil prices declined, with Brent 09 contract down 1.98% and SC09 contract up 2.3%. After the EU's 18th round of sanctions against Russia, oil prices first rose and then fell. The upward drive of strong real - world factors on oil prices has weakened, and the oil price trend has shifted from strong to volatile [2] - **Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: Under the OPEC+ production increase path, there is an expected increase in the supply of high - sulfur heavy resources. The impact of sanctions on major high - sulfur fuel oil producing areas is limited, and demand lacks drive. FU cracking continues to decline. LU's unilateral trend follows crude oil, but its increase has been less than that of SC since mid - July, and its cracking has also declined [21] - **Asphalt**: In August, refinery production is expected to decline significantly compared to July. Social inventory has slightly increased, while factory inventory has decreased significantly. Overall, supply increase resilience needs to be observed, demand remains weak but has recovery expectations, and low inventory supports prices, with the BU price showing an upward trend [22] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: Middle - East production pressure persists, and overseas prices continue to fluctuate weakly. Import costs have declined, but PDH margins remain stable. Domestic supply and demand are both weak, and the domestic gas price is under pressure at the top. The market is in a summer off - season pattern, and the futures price fluctuates weakly [23] Metals - **Precious Metals**: The recent macro - sentiment is positive, and precious metals are relatively stable. Due to high uncertainty in US tariff policies, precious metals are mainly in a volatile state, and the gold - silver ratio still has room to decline [3] - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Last Friday, LME copper rose close to $9,800, and SHFE copper's main contract shifted to 2509. The domestic copper industry's capacity regulation space is limited. The previous 2508 option portfolio expired this week [4] - **Aluminum**: Affected by the news of the upcoming ten - key - industry growth - stabilization plan, non - ferrous metals are generally strong. Aluminum ingot and billet inventory accumulation is not smooth, and SHFE aluminum may maintain a high - level volatile trend in the short term [5] - **Zinc**: Black prices have rebounded, and the market sentiment has improved. The import window is closed, and the external market drives the internal market up. However, downstream acceptance of high - priced zinc is low, and supply is expected to increase. The SHFE zinc term structure has flattened, and it is still considered a rebound - under - pressure situation [8] - **Lead**: Both domestic and foreign inventories have increased, and the export of lead - acid batteries is affected by tariffs. The price has declined. However, the cost support is strong. The price has stopped falling at 16,800 yuan/ton and may face resistance at the previous high of 17,800 yuan/ton [9] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: SHFE nickel has rebounded, and the market trading is active. The stainless - steel market is in the off - season, and inventory has increased. Technically, SHFE nickel still has room to rebound, and short - selling opportunities are awaited [10] - **Tin**: LME tin has been volatile, and SHFE tin is supported at 260,000 yuan. The main contract has shifted to 2509. Social inventory has increased. High - level short positions from the previous period are held [11] - **Other Metal - related Products** - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It follows SHFE aluminum and is in a strong - volatile state, but trading is inactive. Despite weak industrial demand, scrap aluminum supply is tight, and it may be more resilient than aluminum prices [6] - **Alumina**: On Friday night, alumina prices rose sharply. Supply - side policy expectations have strengthened, but domestic operating capacity has reached a historical high, and there is a possibility of mine restart in Guinea. After the sharp rise driven by expectations, there is a risk of correction [7] Agricultural Products - **Soybeans and Soybean Meal**: As of July 15, about 7% of US soybean - producing areas were affected by drought. The US - India trade agreement and Indonesia's potential B50 biodiesel plan have boosted US agricultural product prices. In China, oil - mill operating rates are high, and soybean - meal inventory is increasing. The price of soybean meal is mainly guided by US soybean - producing area weather [36] - **Edible Oils (Soybean Oil and Palm Oil)**: Palm oil has risen strongly, and soybean oil has followed. Indonesia's potential increase in biodiesel blending ratio and the competitiveness of its palm oil in the export market have pushed up prices. Long - term, a long - at - low strategy is recommended for vegetable oils [37] - **Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil**: Canadian rapeseed exports may be affected by Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations. Domestic rapeseed products are expected to be volatile in the short term, and factors such as weather, policies, and biodiesel should be monitored [38] - **Corn**: Dalian corn rose on Friday night. Cofco's increased auctions have affected market expectations, and the auction success rate of US - imported corn was low. Dalian corn futures may continue to bottom - oscillate [40] - **Livestock and Poultry Products** - **Pigs**: Pig prices have rebounded slightly. However, the overall supply is abundant in the medium - term, and the industry can participate in short - hedging at high prices [41] - **Eggs**: Large - sized egg prices have strengthened slightly, while small - sized egg prices have weakened. Cold - storage eggs are being released, suppressing price increases. Long - term, the egg - price cycle has not bottomed out [42] - **Cotton**: Zhengzhou cotton has risen continuously, but there are concerns about a potential short - squeeze. Pure - cotton yarn prices have increased, but downstream procurement is still cautious. Attention should be paid to the impact of the textile - industry growth - stabilization plan [43] - **Sugar**: US sugar is in a downward trend, and the Brazilian production outlook is negative. In China, sugar imports are low, and domestic sugar sales are fast. The uncertainty of Guangxi's sugar production in the 25/26 season has increased, and sugar prices are expected to be volatile [44] - **Apples**: Apple futures are volatile. New - season early - maturing apples are on the market, and prices have increased year - on - year. The market is focused on new - season yield estimates, and a short - biased strategy is recommended [45] - **Wood and Pulp** - **Wood**: Wood futures have rebounded significantly. Spot prices are stable, and due to low inventory and historical - low prices, there is an expectation of price increase. However, domestic demand is in the off - season, and the upward momentum is insufficient [46] - **Pulp**: Pulp futures have continued to rise. Port inventory has decreased, but domestic imports are still high. Demand is in the traditional off - season, and a wait - and - see or short - term trading strategy is recommended [47] Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index**: A - shares have increased in volume and oscillated higher. US economic data has been positive, and policies have boosted market risk appetite. Foreign institutions are optimistic about the Chinese economy, and a strategy of increasing technology - growth stocks on the basis of dividend - asset allocation is recommended [48] - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury - bond futures have oscillated. The market has fully priced in the expectation of monetary easing. In the short - term, there is a risk of increased volatility [49] Shipping - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: The spot market is still strong, and most airlines may raise prices in early August. The market is in a game between strong reality and weak expectations. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - US tariff negotiations [20] Chemicals - **Methanol**: Methanol imports have increased significantly, and port inventory has accumulated rapidly. Domestic producers are planning autumn maintenance, but some may postpone it due to good profits. Demand is in the off - season, and attention should be paid to macro and downstream - device changes [25] - **Pure Benzene**: Domestic pure - benzene production has increased slightly, and port supply is abundant. There is an expectation of seasonal improvement in the third - quarter mid - to - late stage, but pressure in the fourth quarter. A month - spread band - trading strategy is recommended [26] - **Styrene**: Styrene futures are in a consolidation pattern. Main - port inventory has increased significantly, and the basis has weakened, dragging down the futures market [27] - **Polypropylene and Polyethylene**: The cost - side oil price is volatile. Polyethylene supply is expected to increase, and demand is weak. Polypropylene has some support from ongoing maintenance, but downstream demand is still sluggish [28] - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: Affected by the news of backward - capacity elimination, PVC has shown a strong trend. Caustic soda is also strong, but there are concerns about long - term supply increases and weak downstream acceptance [29] - **PX and PTA**: PTA's processing margin is low, and demand is weak, which drags down PX. There are expectations of PTA processing - margin repair [30] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Domestic production has declined, and port inventory has decreased. The price has strengthened, and a short - term long - position strategy is recommended [31] - **Short - fiber and Bottle - grade Chips**: Short - fiber production has increased, and inventory has decreased slightly. Bottle - grade chips production has decreased, and inventory has increased slightly. The short - fiber spot processing margin has repaired, while the bottle - grade chips processing margin has oscillated [32]

| | | | | 尿素早评20250721:短期政策预期大于基本面 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 日慶 | 单位 7月18日 7月17日 | | | | 变化值 (绝对值) | 変化值 (相对值) | | | | UR01 | 元/吨 | 1720.00 | 1718.00 | 2.00 | 0.12% | | 尿素期货价格 | | UR05 | 元/吨 | 1731.00 | 1730.00 | 1.00 | 0.06% | | (收盘价) | | UR09 | 元/吨 | 1745.00 | 1743.00 | 2.00 | 0.11% | | | | 山东 | 元/吨 | 1810.00 | 1800.00 | 10.00 | 0.56% | | 期现价格 | | 山西 | 元/吨 | 1690.00 | 1680.00 | 10.00 | 0.60% | | 国内现货价格 | | 河南 | 元/吨 | 1810.00 | 1800.00 | 10.00 | 0.56% | | (小顆粒) | | 河北 | ...