Core Viewpoint - The market sentiment has declined recently, leading to a drop of over 7% in the main contract for tin on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, influenced by a rebound in the US dollar index and pressure on precious metals and non-ferrous sectors [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The tin market is experiencing limited fundamental changes, with the resumption of production in Myanmar easing the tight supply situation for tin ore [1] - Tin ore processing fees have slightly increased, indicating some cost pressures in the supply chain [1] Group 2: Demand and Supply - The recovery speed of terminal demand for tin remains slow, contributing to the overall market weakness [1] - As tin prices have significantly declined, there has been a resurgence in the willingness of downstream industries to replenish their inventories [1]

今日午盘后沪锡走势：今日沪锡合约2603大跌，开盘价报405000元/吨，盘中最高报420640元/吨，最低 报392650元/吨，结算价报410860元/吨，收盘报392650元/吨，下跌48530元，跌幅11%；沪锡主力月 2603合约成交量190922手，持仓量38321手，较前一日减少1758手。 今日现货锡价走势：据长江有色金属网获悉，2月2日ccmn长江综合市场1#锡价报391000元/吨-394000 元/吨，均价报392500元/吨,较前一日价格下跌31000元；今日长江现货市场1#锡价报391750元/吨-393750 元/吨，均价392750元/吨，较上一交易日价格下跌31000元/吨。 ccmn锡市分析：宏观面，美联储人事地震的冲击波正席卷全球市场。随着鹰派人物凯文·沃什获得下任 美联储主席提名，市场对货币政策的预期发生剧烈逆转，3月降息概率骤降至冰点。这场"预期风暴"叠 加超预期的PPI通胀数据，共同推高了美元与美债收益率，引发了大宗商品的全线抛售，并显著打压了 股市风险偏好。金融市场的逻辑，正在被这场突如其来的宏观变局重塑。与此同时，国内正值春节前传 统需求淡季，下游采购几近真空，市 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - China's industrial enterprises above designated size saw a 5.3% year - on - year increase in profits in December 2026 and a 0.6% increase for the whole year, achieving the first growth in four years. The supply of tin ore is expected to increase in the first quarter, with a slight rebound in processing fees, indicating a relief of the supply shortage. The production of refined tin is currently limited but may increase after the Chinese New Year. The import pressure is increasing as Indonesia's tin exports rise. The demand for solder in the AI field is expected to grow significantly. The short - term trend of Shanghai tin is expected to be a wide - range adjustment, with a focus on the 44 - level competition and support at MA10, in the range of 42 - 46 [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai tin is 443,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7,360 yuan; the closing price of the March - April contract of Shanghai tin is - 490 yuan/ton, an increase of 160 yuan. The LME 3 - month tin price is 54,878 US dollars/ton, an increase of 646 US dollars. The main contract position of Shanghai tin is 52,024 lots, a decrease of 3,047 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures is - 7,628 lots, a decrease of 3,478 lots. The LME tin total inventory is 7,085 tons, an increase of 20 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of tin is 9,720 tons, an increase of 171 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange tin warehouse receipt is 8,657 tons, an increase of 104 tons [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 436,600 yuan/ton, an increase of 8,200 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 433,700 yuan/ton, an increase of 7,530 yuan. The basis of the main Shanghai tin contract is - 22,760 yuan/ton, a decrease of 32,270 yuan. The LME tin premium (0 - 3) is - 244 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1 US dollar [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 1.76 million tons, an increase of 0.25 million tons. The average price of 40% tin concentrate processing fee is 14,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 40% tin concentrate is 414,400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6,450 yuan; the average price of 60% tin concentrate is 418,400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6,450 yuan; the average price of 60% tin concentrate processing fee is 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 1.4 million tons, a decrease of 0.16 million tons. The monthly import volume of refined tin is 2,239.1 tons, an increase of 323.25 tons [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu is 275,410 yuan/ton, an increase of 5,340 yuan. The cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 152.87 million tons, an increase of 13.87 million tons. The monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 14.29 million tons, a decrease of 0.45 million tons [3] 3.6 Industry News - China's industrial enterprises above designated size saw a 5.3% year - on - year increase in profits in December 2026 and a 0.6% increase for the whole year, achieving the first growth in four years. The US government is approaching a shutdown. The Fed is expected to pause rate cuts this week, and there are differences among officials on future rate cuts [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given documents. 2. Report Core Views Copper - Short - term: Copper prices may gradually return to fundamental pricing. Pay attention to CL premium changes and LME inventory changes. The main contract is supported at 99000 - 100000 yuan/ton. [1] - Medium - to long - term: Bullish on the upward shift of the price bottom center due to capital expenditure constraints on the supply side. [1] Zinc - Short - term: The downside space of zinc prices may be limited. The support comes from the tightening of domestic zinc mines, and the pressure comes from the negative feedback on the demand side. Pay attention to zinc ore TC and refined zinc inventory changes. The main contract is supported at around 24000 yuan/ton. [5] Aluminum - Alumina: Expected to continue wide - range fluctuations around the industry cash cost line, with the main contract reference range of 2600 - 2900 yuan/ton. [7] - Aluminum: Expected to maintain a high - level wide - range shock in the short term, with the main contract reference operating range of 23000 - 25000 yuan/ton. [7] Aluminum Alloy Expected to continue the high - level range shock in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 22000 - 24000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the actual circulation of scrap aluminum, import window changes, and the final strength and rhythm of downstream inventory replenishment before the Spring Festival. [8] Nickel Expected to show a relatively strong shock in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 140000 - 150000 yuan/ton. [9] Stainless Steel Expected to have an oscillatory adjustment in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 14000 - 15000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the news on the ore end and the improvement in demand. [13] Tin - Short - term: Prices are highly volatile due to market sentiment. Hold existing long positions with caution. - Medium - to long - term: Adopt a low - buying strategy considering the low elasticity of the supply side and the long - term narrative of the AI arms race. [16] Industrial Silicon Expected to maintain price fluctuations, with the main price range of 8200 - 9200 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the changes in demand - side production. [18] Polysilicon In the current weak demand situation, polysilicon faces the choice between production cuts or price cuts. The price may be supported at 48000 yuan/ton, and 45000 yuan/ton may also have support. Adopt a wait - and - see approach during the cooling - off period, and pay attention to future production cuts and downstream demand recovery. [19] Lithium Carbonate Expected to be relatively strong in the short term. Be cautious in short - term operations, and be aware of high - valuation and liquidity risks when chasing up prices. [21] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 100830 yuan/ton, up 0.76% from the previous day. The refined - scrap price difference is 2865 yuan/ton, up 5.22%. [1] - **Fundamental Data**: In December, electrolytic copper production was 117.81 million tons, up 6.80% month - on - month; imports were 26.02 million tons, down 4.02% month - on - month. [1] Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 24620 yuan/ton, up 1.28%. The import loss is - 2052 yuan/ton. [5] - **Fundamental Data**: In December, refined zinc production was 55.21 million tons, down 7.24% month - on - month; imports were 0.88 million tons, down 51.94% month - on - month. [5] Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price is 24110 yuan/ton, up 1.56%. The import loss of electrolytic aluminum is - 1919 yuan/ton. [7] - **Fundamental Data**: In December, domestic electrolytic aluminum production was 378.10 million tons, up 3.97% month - on - month; imports were 18.92 million tons, up 28.77% month - on - month. [7] Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price is 24000 yuan/ton, up 0.63%. The refined - scrap price difference in Foshan for broken primary aluminum is 2919 yuan/ton, up 14.97%. [8] - **Fundamental Data**: In December, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 64.00 million tons, down 6.16% month - on - month; the import of unforged aluminum alloy ingots was 9.31 million tons, up 27.19% month - on - month. [8] Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 148550 yuan/ton, up 1.92%. The cost of integrated MHP to produce electrolytic nickel is 112237 yuan/ton, up 1.09% month - on - month. [9] - **Supply, Demand and Inventory**: China's refined nickel production in December was 31400 tons, up 26.10% month - on - month; imports were 23394 tons, up 84.63% month - on - month. [9] Stainless Steel - **Price and Spread**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) is 14300 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) is 1043 yuan/nickel point, up 0.87%. [13] - **Fundamental Data**: In December, the production of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in China (43 companies) was 176.32 million tons, up 0.92% month - on - month; exports were 40.53 million tons, up 13.18% month - on - month. [13] Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price is 420300 yuan/ton, up 4.23%. The import loss is - 6632.02 yuan/ton, up 13.60%. [16] - **Fundamental Data**: In December, tin ore imports were 17637 tons, up 16.81%; SMM refined tin production was 15950 tons, down 0.06%. [16] Industrial Silicon - **Spot Price and Main Contract Basis**: The price of East China oxygen - permeable SI5530 industrial silicon is 9250 yuan/ton, unchanged. [18] - **Fundamental Data**: In December, the national industrial silicon product output was 39.71 million tons, down 1.15% month - on - month. [18] Polysilicon - **Spot Price and Basis**: The average price of N - type re -投料 is 54000 yuan/kg, unchanged. The N - type silicon wafer - 210mm average price is 1.63 yuan/piece, down 1.21%. [19] - **Fundamental Data**: Weekly polysilicon production is 2.05 million tons, down 4.65%. Monthly polysilicon imports are 0.19 million tons, up 77.50%. [19] Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate is 171000 yuan/ton, up 3.95%. The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate CIF is 2214 US dollars/ton, up 3.94%. [21] - **Fundamental Data**: In December, lithium carbonate production was 99200 tons, up 4.04% month - on - month; demand was 130118 tons, down 2.50% month - on - month. [21]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report Tin - Short - term tin prices fluctuate significantly due to market sentiment. After the sentiment stabilizes, considering the long - term narrative of the AI arms race, a low - buying strategy can be attempted [1]. Copper - In the short term, copper prices may gradually return to fundamental pricing. Pay attention to changes in CL premium and LME inventory, with the main support level at 97,500 - 98,500 [4]. Zinc - Zinc prices will be mainly volatile in the short term. The support comes from the tightening of domestic zinc mines, and the pressure comes from the expected supply of imported mines and negative feedback from the demand side [9]. Industrial Silicon - The price of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate, with the main price range between 8,200 - 9,200 yuan/ton. Pay attention to changes in production and demand [12]. Polysilicon - The price of polysilicon is supported at 48,000 yuan/ton. In the cooling cycle, it is recommended to wait and see. Downstream enterprises can consider hedging according to orders [13]. Nickel - The nickel market is expected to be in a wide - range oscillation, with the main reference range at 138,000 - 148,000 [14]. Stainless Steel - Stainless steel is expected to oscillate in the short term, with the main reference range at 13,800 - 14,500. Pay attention to mine - end news and downstream stocking [16]. Aluminum - Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate widely around the industry's cash cost line. The main contract reference range is 23,000 - 25,000 yuan/ton [18]. Lithium Carbonate - The short - term lithium carbonate price may be adjusted widely, with the main reference range at 140,000 - 150,000 yuan/ton. Short - term unilateral trading within the range is recommended [19]. Aluminum Alloy - The price of aluminum alloy ADC12 is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation in the short term, with the main reference range at 22,000 - 24,000 yuan/ton [21]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Tin - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price decreased by 5.86% to 389,800 yuan/ton; SMM 1 tin premium increased by 33.33% to 200 yuan/ton [1]. - **Fundamentals**: In November, the import of tin ore increased by 29.81% month - on - month; in December, the production of SMM refined tin decreased by 0.06% [1]. - **Inventory**: SHEF inventory increased by 37.69% week - on - week; social inventory increased by 36.07% [1]. Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 0.90% to 100,940 yuan/ton; the refined - scrap price difference increased by 1.58% [3]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, the production of electrolytic copper increased by 6.80% month - on - month; in November, the import volume decreased by 3.90% [3]. - **Inventory**: Domestic social inventory increased by 12.27% week - on - week; LME inventory increased by 2.68% day - on - day [4][6]. Zinc - **Price and Basis**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price decreased by 1.53% to 24,420 yuan/ton; the premium increased by 10 yuan/ton [9]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, the production of refined zinc decreased by 7.24% month - on - month; in November, the export volume increased by 402.59% [9]. - **Inventory**: China's seven - region social inventory of zinc ingots increased by 3.13% week - on - week; LME inventory decreased by 1.38% day - on - day [9]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Basis**: The price of East China oxygen - passing SI5530 industrial silicon remained unchanged at 9,250 yuan/ton; the basis decreased by 37.21% [12]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, the national production of industrial silicon decreased by 1.15% month - on - month; Xinjiang's production increased by 6.46% [12]. - **Inventory**: Xinjiang's inventory increased by 2.91% month - on - month; social inventory increased by 0.54% week - on - week [12]. Polysilicon - **Price and Basis**: The average price of N - type polysilicon increased by 0.27% to 55,000 yuan/ton; the basis decreased by 3.33% [13]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, the production of polysilicon increased by 0.79% month - on - month; the import volume decreased by 27.05% [13]. - **Inventory**: Polysilicon inventory increased by 6.29% week - on - week; silicon wafer inventory decreased by 5.53% [13]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel decreased by 2.31% to 145,900 yuan/ton; the premium of 1 Jinchuan nickel increased by 20.77% [14]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, China's refined nickel production decreased by 9.38% month - on - month; the import volume increased by 30.08% [14]. - **Inventory**: SHFE inventory increased by 3.28% week - on - week; social inventory increased by 4.04% [14]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) decreased by 0.35% to 14,300 yuan/ton; the premium decreased by 32.65% [16]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production decreased by 2.50% month - on - month; the export volume increased by 13.18% [16]. - **Inventory**: The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) decreased by 1.47% week - on - week; SHFE warehouse receipts remained unchanged [16]. Aluminum - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM A00 aluminum decreased by 0.67% to 23,870 yuan/ton; the premium increased by 20 yuan/ton [18]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, the production of alumina increased by 1.08% month - on - month; the import volume of electrolytic aluminum decreased by 40.83% in November [18]. - **Inventory**: China's electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased by 2.60% week - on - week; LME inventory decreased by 0.61% day - on - day [18]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 4.43% to 151,000 yuan/ton; the basis decreased by 68.31% [19]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, the production of lithium carbonate increased by 4.04% month - on - month; the demand decreased by 2.50% [19]. - **Inventory**: In December, the total inventory of lithium carbonate decreased by 12.23% month - on - month; the downstream inventory decreased by 7.21% [19]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained unchanged at 23,900 yuan/ton; the refined - scrap price difference in Foshan decreased by 6.12% [21]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 6.16% month - on - month; the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased by 0.46% [21]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 1.41% week - on - week; the daily inventory in Foshan decreased by 0.76% [21].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the reports regarding industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views Tin - Short - term price is highly volatile due to market sentiment. After a sharp decline on Friday night, it's advisable to be cautious in the short - term. Consider a low - buying strategy after the sentiment stabilizes [1]. Copper - In the long - term, the price bottom center is expected to rise due to capital expenditure constraints on the supply side. In the short - term, the price is strong because of global inventory structural imbalance and supply concerns. However, real terminal demand is weak. With the cooling of speculative sentiment and easing of tariff expectations, the price may return to fundamental pricing. Pay attention to CL premium and LME inventory changes, with the main contract supported at 97500 - 98500 [3]. Nickel - Recent trading is centered around macro and Indonesian ore RKAB quota. Short - term ore news has limited further driving force. The market is expected to fluctuate widely, with the main contract reference range of 135000 - 145000 [5]. Zinc - The price is supported by domestic ore shortage and pressured by expected imported ore supply and negative demand feedback. It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term. Focus on zinc ore TC and refined zinc inventory changes, with the main contract supported around 23800 [8]. Lithium Carbonate - The fundamentals show some resilience in the off - season. With a loose macro environment and strengthened supervision, there is resistance to further price increases. The market has intensified long - short divergence. The short - term market may adjust widely, with the main contract running between 140,000 - 150,000. Use short - term range trading [11]. Aluminum - Alumina prices lack upward momentum due to loose supply, weakening demand, and high inventory. It is expected to fluctuate widely around the industry cash cost line, with the main contract in the range of 2600 - 2950 yuan/ton. Aluminum prices are expected to maintain a high - level wide - range oscillation in the short - term, with the main contract in the range of 23000 - 25000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to domestic inventory accumulation speed, downstream consumption resilience, and overseas monetary policies and geopolitical events [13]. Aluminum Alloy - The short - term price range is limited. The ADC12 price is expected to continue high - level oscillation, with the main contract in the range of 22000 - 24000 yuan/ton. Focus on raw material price changes, actual inflow of imported goods, and downstream pre - holiday inventory building [15]. Stainless Steel - Raw material news drives sentiment and strengthens cost support. Social inventory is steadily digested, but downstream demand in the off - season is weak. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with the main contract in the range of 13800 - 14500. Pay attention to ore news and downstream inventory building [18]. Polysilicon - The demand outlook has improved due to export - grabbing demand, and there is an expectation of supply reduction. The price is supported at 48,000 yuan/ton. Component production may increase, which is beneficial for inventory digestion. In the cooling period, it's advisable to wait and see, and focus on later production cuts and downstream demand recovery [20]. Industrial Silicon - The market remains in a state of weak supply and demand, with low - level oscillation. The price is expected to fluctuate between 8000 - 9000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to supply - side production changes and potential further polysilicon production cuts [21]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Tin - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price decreased by 2.81% to 414050 yuan/ton, and SMM 1 tin premium decreased by 78.57% [1]. - **Fundamentals**: In November, tin ore imports increased by 29.81%, and refined tin imports increased by 127.19%. In December, SMM refined tin production decreased slightly by 0.06% [1]. - **Inventory**: SHEF inventory increased by 37.69% to 9549 tons, and social inventory increased by 36.07% to 10175 tons [1]. Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 0.70% to 101855 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased significantly [3]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, electrolytic copper production increased by 6.80% to 117.81 million tons. In November, imports decreased by 3.90% [3]. - **Inventory**: Domestic social inventory increased by 17.20% to 32.09 million tons, and SHFE inventory increased by 18.26% to 21.35 million tons [3]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price decreased by 0.47% to 149350 yuan/ton, and the import profit and loss decreased by 74.48% [5]. - **Cost**: The cost of integrated MHP to produce electrolytic nickel increased by 1.09% to 112237 yuan/ton [5]. - **Inventory**: SHFE inventory increased by 3.28% to 48180 tons, and LME inventory increased by 0.16% to 285732 tons [5]. Zinc - **Price and Basis**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price decreased by 2.40% to 24800 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased [8]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, refined zinc production decreased by 7.24% to 55.21 million tons. In November, exports increased by 402.59% [8]. - **Inventory**: Global visible inventory decreased slightly, and domestic social inventory decreased slightly by 0.08% to 11.84 million tons [8]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price decreased by 0.63% to 158000 yuan/ton, and the basis increased significantly [11]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, lithium carbonate production increased by 4.04% to 99200 tons, and demand decreased by 2.50% [11]. - **Inventory**: Total lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 12.23% to 56664 tons in December [11]. Aluminum - **Price and Basis**: SMM A00 aluminum price decreased by 0.66% to 24030 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased [13]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, alumina production increased by 1.08% to 751.96 million tons, and domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased by 3.97% [13]. - **Inventory**: Chinese electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased by 3.08% to 73.60 million tons, and LME inventory decreased by 0.41% to 48.8 million tons [13]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Basis**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price decreased by 0.42% to 23900 yuan/ton, and the scrap - to - refined price difference decreased [15]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, regenerated aluminum alloy ingot production decreased by 6.16% to 64 million tons [15]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory of regenerated aluminum alloy ingots decreased slightly to 4.89 million tons [15]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) price decreased by 0.35% to 14350 yuan/ton, and the spot - futures price difference increased [18]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production decreased by 2.50% to 171.93 million tons [18]. - **Inventory**: 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) decreased by 1.47% to 45.07 million tons [18]. Polysilicon - **Price and Basis**: N - type polysilicon average price increased slightly, and the basis of N - type material decreased by 23.52% [20]. - **Fundamentals**: Weekly polysilicon production decreased by 9.66% to 2.15 million tons, and monthly net exports increased significantly [20]. - **Inventory**: Polysilicon inventory increased by 6.29% to 32.1 million tons [20]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Basis**: East China oxygen - passing SI5530 industrial silicon price remained unchanged, and the basis increased [21]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, national industrial silicon production decreased by 1.15% to 39.71 million tons, and exports increased by 21.78% [21]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory increased by 0.54% to 55.50 million tons [21].

Group 1: Market Overview - The current spot price of tin has dropped significantly, with a reported range of 389,750-391,750 RMB per ton, averaging 390,750 RMB per ton, reflecting a decline of 24,000 RMB or over 5% from the previous trading day [1] - The price drop is attributed to a combination of macroeconomic sentiment shifts, weakened fundamental support, and capital behavior [1] Group 2: Macroeconomic Factors - Both international and domestic macroeconomic environments are tightening, leading to suppressed market sentiment for non-ferrous metals [2] - Expectations for monetary policy easing in major economies have been revised, strengthening the US dollar and directly impacting the prices of commodities like tin [2] - Domestic financial regulators are emphasizing the prevention of excessive speculation, causing some speculative capital to exit the market, which has contributed to the pressure on previously inflated prices [2] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The current tin market is characterized by a short-term oversupply, which is a core reason for the price correction [3] - Visible inventories have accumulated significantly, indicating a loosening of market supply [3] - Production and export activities in major raw material regions are steadily recovering, alleviating previous supply tensions [3] - Demand is facing seasonal weakness and structural challenges, particularly in traditional sectors like electronic solder, which lack significant replenishment momentum [3] Group 4: Industry Chain Transmission - The market is experiencing transmission bottlenecks across various segments of the industry chain [4] - Upstream supply tensions are marginally improving, while midstream smelting operations are under pressure from falling prices and inventory accumulation [4] - Downstream processing enterprises are maintaining low inventory strategies due to uncertainty in future price trends, leading to a lack of positive feedback loops [4] Group 5: Corporate Impact and Market Outlook - The significant drop in tin prices is exerting short-term pressure on the stock prices of related listed companies [5] - Leading companies, while benefiting from previous high prices, will face squeezed profit margins due to price volatility [5] - Current market trading is subdued, with both buyers and sellers adopting a wait-and-see approach, leading to poor price transmission [5] - Short-term tin prices are expected to remain weak and volatile, influenced by macroeconomic sentiment and high inventory levels [5] - Key variables to monitor include global macroeconomic data, recovery pace of traditional demand, and changes in inventory trends at major exchanges [5][6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report predicts that Shanghai Tin will undergo short - term high - level adjustments. It is necessary to pay attention to the support of MA5 and whether it can stand firm at the 350,000 - yuan mark [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai Tin is 349,640 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9,410 yuan; the closing price of the February - March contract of Shanghai Tin is - 670 yuan/ton, a decrease of 120 yuan. The price of LME 3 - month tin is 44,323 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 203 US dollars. The main contract position of Shanghai Tin is 38,798 lots, a decrease of 5,171 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures of Shanghai Tin is - 370 lots, an increase of 532 lots. The total inventory of LME tin is 5,405 tons, a decrease of 15 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of tin is 7,936 tons, a decrease of 541 tons. The LME tin cancelled warrants are 120 tons, a decrease of 35 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange warrants of tin are 6,788 tons, an increase of 8 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 355,050 yuan/ton, a decrease of 900 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 352,730 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4,970 yuan. The basis of the main Shanghai Tin contract is - 3,100 yuan/ton, an increase of 4,670 yuan. The LME tin premium (0 - 3) is - 52 US dollars/ton, an increase of 13 US dollars [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 11,600 tons, an increase of 2,900 tons. The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 343,050 yuan/ton, an increase of 14,000 yuan; the processing fee of 40% tin concentrate is 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average price of 60% tin concentrate is 347,050 yuan/ton, an increase of 14,000 yuan; the processing fee of 60% tin concentrate is 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, a decrease of 1,600 tons. The import volume of refined tin is 983.25 tons, a decrease of 518.38 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu is 226,630 yuan/ton, a decrease of 830 yuan. The cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 1.3901 million tons, an increase of 144,700 tons. The export volume of tin - plated sheets is 222,600 tons, an increase of 25,000 tons [3]. 3.6 Industry News - Eight departments plan to accelerate the upgrade of intelligent terminals, aiming to achieve safe and reliable supply of key core technologies in artificial intelligence in China by 2027. The Bloomberg Commodity Index will conduct its annual weight re - balancing from January 8th to 14th, and the "technical selling" of passive funds may cause a liquidity shock. In the United States, the ADP employment in December increased by 41,000, reversing the decline in November but lower than the expected increase. The JOLTS job openings in November dropped to a more - than - one - year low, and for the first time in four years, the number was less than the number of unemployed, with recruitment slowing down. The ISM Services PMI in December reached a more - than - one - year high of 54.4, indicating robust demand and a rebound in recruitment [3]. 3.7 Fundamental Analysis - On the supply side, the import supply of domestic tin ore is still relatively tight, and the tin ore processing fee remains at a low level. The resumption of production in Myanmar and the end of the rainy season have provided some incremental supply of tin ore, but the supply in other regions is still highly unstable, and the overall import volume of tin ore is still at a low level. In the smelting sector, the current tin ore raw materials are in short supply, and the raw material inventory of most enterprises is still low. Most enterprises are in a loss - making situation, and it is expected that the output of refined tin will continue to be restricted, with no year - on - year increase. In terms of imports, the export volume of Indonesia increased significantly in November, alleviating concerns about supply constraints in Indonesia, but the import window remains closed. On the demand side, downstream enterprises have been purchasing on - demand recently, the inventory has continued to decline, and the spot premium is 500 yuan/ton. The LME inventory has remained stable, and the spot premium has increased [3]. 3.8 Technical Analysis - The candlestick chart shows a lower - shadow line with a decrease in positions, and the bullish sentiment has declined [3].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided regarding the report industry investment ratings. Core Views Tin - Market sentiment has fluctuated recently, causing significant volatility in tin prices. Operation should be cautious, and subsequent attention should be paid to macro - economic conditions and supply - side recovery [2]. Zinc - The lower support for zinc prices comes from the tightening domestic zinc ore supply and low zinc ingot inventory, while the upper pressure comes from the expected supply of imported ores. Short - term prices are likely to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to import profit and loss, TC inflection points, and changes in refined zinc inventory [5]. Copper - The medium - to - long - term fundamentals of copper are good, but in the short term, prices are over - estimated irrationally, yet may remain strong due to high market speculation. Attention should be paid to overseas inventory changes and CL premium changes [7]. Nickel - Recently, the nickel market has been driven by Indonesia's tightening expectations, but the actual fundamentals are weak, restricting the upside of prices. The short - term market is expected to remain strong, and attention should be paid to potential price corrections [10]. Stainless Steel - The fundamentals of stainless steel show slightly eased supply pressure and strengthened cost support, but demand in the off - season is still insufficient. The short - term market is expected to fluctuate strongly, and attention should be paid to news from the ore end and downstream inventory replenishment [12]. Alumina - The market still faces severe oversupply pressure, and alumina prices are expected to fluctuate widely around the industry's cash cost line. The key to a trend - based rebound lies in whether there are specific capacity control policies or large - scale production cuts [14]. Aluminum - Strong macro and policy expectations support aluminum prices, but weakening supply - demand fundamentals and inventory accumulation pressure will limit the upside. Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate widely at high levels [14]. Aluminum Alloy - The cost is the main driving factor for the price of aluminum alloy. The market is in a tight - balance state with both supply and demand being weak. Prices are expected to fluctuate in a high - level range in the short term [15]. Lithium Carbonate - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate remain largely unchanged, with a slight increase in supply expected. The downstream demand has certain resilience but weakens in the off - season. The market is expected to fluctuate strongly, and price volatility may intensify [16]. Industrial Silicon - In January, industrial silicon is expected to maintain a pattern of weak supply and demand. Prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the implementation of production cuts [17]. Polysilicon - Polysilicon spot prices are stable, and futures are oscillating at a high level. In January, demand is weak, and prices are expected to remain in a high - level oscillation. Attention should be paid to production cuts and price adjustment acceptance [18]. Summary by Related Catalogs Tin - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 tin price increased by 0.91%, and the SMM 1 tin premium increased by 142.86%. The import loss increased by 9.86%, and some month - to - month spreads changed significantly [2]. - **Fundamentals**: In November, tin ore imports increased by 29.81%, and in December, SMM refined tin production decreased slightly by 0.06%. Exchange inventories decreased [2]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased slightly by 0.09%, and the import loss decreased by 5.78%. Some month - to - month spreads changed [5]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, refined zinc production decreased by 7.24%, and in November, exports increased significantly by 402.59%. Social inventories decreased [5]. Copper - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 1.23%, and the import loss decreased by 46.83%. Some month - to - month spreads changed [7]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, electrolytic copper production increased by 6.80%, and in November, imports decreased by 3.90%. Social inventories increased [7]. Nickel - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price increased by 3.77%, and the import profit increased by 175.35%. Some month - to - month spreads changed [10]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, China's refined nickel production decreased by 9.38%, and in November, imports increased by 30.08%. Some inventories increased slightly [10]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Spread**: The price of 304/2B stainless steel remained unchanged, and some month - to - month spreads changed [12]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, China's 300 - series stainless steel production decreased slightly, and exports increased by 13.18%. Social inventories decreased [12]. Alumina - **Price and Spread**: Alumina prices remained stable, the electrolytic aluminum import loss decreased, and some month - to - month spreads changed [14]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, alumina production increased by 1.08%, and electrolytic aluminum production increased by 3.97%. Some inventories increased [14]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price increased by 1.26%, the import loss decreased, and some month - to - month spreads changed [14]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, domestic and overseas electrolytic aluminum production increased, and demand weakened. Social inventories increased [14]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: SMM ADC12 price increased by 0.67%, and some month - to - month spreads changed [15]. - **Fundamentals**: In November, the production of regeneration and primary aluminum alloy increased, and some inventories decreased [15]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Spread**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 0.42%, and some month - to - month spreads changed [16]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, lithium carbonate production increased by 4.04%, and demand decreased by 2.50%. Inventories decreased [16]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Spread**: The prices of some industrial silicon products remained unchanged, and some month - to - month spreads changed [17]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, national industrial silicon production decreased by 1.15%, and exports increased by 21.78%. Some inventories increased slightly [17]. Polysilicon - **Price and Spread**: N - type polysilicon prices increased slightly, and some month - to - month spreads changed [18]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, polysilicon production increased by 0.79%, and net exports increased significantly. Inventories increased [18].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report Tin Industry - The resumption of tin mines in Myanmar is expected to accelerate, with a steady increase in imports in November and a significant increase in Indonesia's exports in November. The trading volume of the exchange in December also remained at a relatively high level. - In the demand aspect, tin solder enterprises in South China showed certain resilience, while those in East China were more obviously affected. - The market sentiment has fluctuated greatly recently, and the tin price has fluctuated sharply. It is recommended to be cautious in operation and pay attention to the macro and supply - side recovery [2]. Aluminum Industry - For alumina, the policy of encouraging mergers and reorganizations is more of an emotional drive, and it is difficult to reverse the supply - demand fundamentals in the short term. The price is expected to fluctuate widely around the industry cash cost line. - For electrolytic aluminum, the market is dominated by the game between strong macro - expectations and weak fundamentals. It is expected to maintain a wide - range high - level shock in the short term. It is recommended that pre - existing long positions be closed at high prices [4]. Aluminum Alloy Industry - The casting aluminum alloy followed the upward trend of aluminum prices and the market trading became light. The cost is strongly supported, but the demand is weak. The price of ADC12 is expected to continue to fluctuate in a high - level range in the short term [5]. Zinc Industry - The domestic zinc ore supply is tight, but the opening of the zinc ore import window may ease the short - term supply pressure. The increase in refined zinc production is limited, while the demand side is better, and the social inventory is continuously decreasing. - In the future, the price is expected to be mainly volatile, and attention should be paid to changes in import profit and loss, TC inflection points, and refined zinc inventories [7]. Copper Industry - The medium - and long - term fundamentals of copper are still good, but in the short term, the previous sharp rise in prices has suppressed real demand. The price is expected to enter a shock adjustment stage, and attention should be paid to the support level [10]. Industrial Silicon Industry - The supply and demand of industrial silicon are both stable with a slight decline, and the expectation of production reduction is further heating up. It is expected that the price will fluctuate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the intensity of production reduction [13]. Polysilicon Industry - The polysilicon futures further reduced positions and rebounded. The upstream hopes to drive the price increase of the entire industrial chain by raising prices, but the terminal demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see, pay attention to the production reduction situation and price adjustment acceptance [14]. Nickel Industry - The Indonesian government's plan to cut nickel production has driven up market sentiment, but the actual implementation remains to be seen. The short - term reality is still weak, and the medium - term fundamentals are loose, which restricts the upward space of prices [15]. Stainless Steel Industry - The stainless - steel market was driven by raw material nickel, and the market sentiment improved. The supply pressure has eased slightly, but the demand in the off - season is still insufficient. It is expected to maintain a strong shock adjustment in the short term [18]. Lithium Carbonate Industry - The lithium carbonate market has a large amplitude. The short - term supply is expected to increase slightly, and the downstream demand maintains a certain resilience. The price is supported by fundamentals, but the new driving force is limited. The market is affected by market sentiment, and the disk is expected to maintain a wide - range shock before the New Year's Day [20]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Tin Industry Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin decreased by 5.82% to 323,500 yuan/ton, and SMM 1 tin premium decreased by 12.50% to 350 yuan/ton. - LME 0 - 3 premium decreased by 26.92% to 95.00 dollars/ton [2]. Internal - External Price Ratio and Import Profit and Loss - The import loss decreased by 7.19% to - 13,988.79 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio remained at 7.87 [2]. Monthly Spread - The spread of 2601 - 2602 increased by 70.73%, and the spread of 2602 - 2603 decreased by 18.06% [2]. Fundamental Data - In November, the import of tin ore increased by 29.81%, the output of refined tin decreased by 0.81%, the import volume of refined tin increased by 127.19%, and the export volume increased by 31.62%. - The average operating rate of SMM refined tin decreased by 0.76%, and the operating rate of SMM solder enterprises increased by 0.96% [2]. Inventory Changes - SHEF inventory increased by 4.72%, social inventory increased by 2.02%, SHEF warehouse receipts decreased by 1.68%, and LME inventory increased by 3.60% [2]. Aluminum Industry Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum decreased by 1.38% to 22,180 yuan/ton, and the premium remained unchanged. - The prices of alumina in various regions remained unchanged [4]. Ratio and Profit and Loss - The import loss of electrolytic aluminum decreased by 34.3 yuan/ton, and the import loss of alumina decreased by 1.1 yuan/ton. The Shanghai - London ratio was 7.57 [4]. Monthly Spread - The spread of AL 2601 - 2602 decreased by 10.0 yuan/ton, and the spread of AL 2602 - 2603 remained unchanged [4]. Fundamental Data - In November, the output of alumina decreased by 4.44%, the domestic output of electrolytic aluminum decreased by 2.82%, and the overseas output decreased by 3.50%. - The import volume of electrolytic aluminum decreased by 40.83%, and the export volume increased by 116.23%. - The operating rates of various aluminum products decreased to varying degrees, and the inventory of various types increased to varying degrees [4]. Aluminum Alloy Industry Price and Spread - The prices of various types of SMM ADC12 decreased by 0.45%. - The refined - scrap price differences of various types of aluminum increased to varying degrees [5]. Monthly Spread - The spread of 2601 - 2602 increased by 5.0 yuan/ton, and the spread of 2602 - 2603 increased by 25.0 yuan/ton [5]. Fundamental Data - In November, the output of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 5.74%, the output of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased by 5.84%, and the output of scrap aluminum increased by 11.45%. - The import volume of unwrought aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 4.19%, and the export volume decreased by 0.97%. - The operating rates of recycled and primary aluminum alloys increased to varying degrees, and the social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 2.06% [5]. Zinc Industry Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot decreased by 0.60% to 23,300 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased by 10.00 yuan/ton [7]. Ratio and Profit and Loss - The import loss decreased by 175.63 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio increased to 7.47 [7]. Monthly Spread - The spread of 2601 - 2602 increased by 10.00 yuan/ton, and the spread of 2602 - 2603 decreased by 10.00 yuan/ton [7]. Fundamental Data - In November, the output of refined zinc decreased by 3.56%, the import volume decreased by 3.22%, and the export volume increased by 402.59%. - The operating rates of galvanizing, die - casting zinc alloy, and zinc oxide increased to varying degrees. - The seven - region social inventory of zinc ingots decreased by 10.12%, and the LME inventory decreased by 0.21% [7]. Copper Industry Price and Spread - SMM 1 electrolytic copper decreased by 3.10% to 97,620 yuan/ton, and the premium increased by 90.00 yuan/ton. - The refined - scrap price difference decreased by 33.11% [10]. Fundamental Data - In November, the output of electrolytic copper increased by 1.05%, and the import volume decreased by 3.90%. - The operating rates of electrolytic copper rod and recycled copper rod decreased, and the domestic social inventory increased by 27.55% [10]. Industrial Silicon Industry Spot Price and Basis - The prices of various types of industrial silicon remained unchanged, and the basis of some types changed to varying degrees [13]. Monthly Spread - The spreads of some contracts changed to varying degrees, such as the spread of 2601 - 2602 decreased by 16.67% [13]. Fundamental Data - In November, the national output of industrial silicon decreased by 11.17%, and the outputs of Yunnan and Sichuan decreased significantly. - The output of organic silicon DMC increased by 3.82%, and the output of polysilicon decreased by 14.48%. - The export volume of industrial silicon increased by 21.78% [13]. Inventory Changes - The Xinjiang factory inventory increased by 2.33%, the social inventory increased by 0.36%, and the warehouse receipt inventory increased by 5.09% [13]. Polysilicon Industry Spot Price and Basis - The average prices of N - type polysilicon remained unchanged, and the N - type material basis increased by 37.45% [14]. Futures Price and Monthly Spread - The main contract decreased by 4.16%, and the spreads of some contracts changed to varying degrees [14]. Fundamental Data - The weekly output of silicon wafers decreased by 3.19%, and the monthly output decreased by 10.35%. - The monthly output of polysilicon decreased by 14.48%, the import volume decreased by 27.05%, and the export volume increased by 108.68% [14]. Inventory Changes - The polysilicon inventory increased by 3.41%, and the silicon wafer inventory increased by 0.88% [14]. Nickel Industry Price and Spread - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel increased by 0.65% to 132,550 yuan/ton, and 1 Jinchuan nickel increased by 0.55% to 136,150 yuan/ton. - LME 0 - 3 decreased by 14.82% to - 170 dollars/ton [15]. Cost - The cost of producing electrowon nickel from integrated MHP increased by 0.19%, and the cost from integrated high - grade nickel matte decreased by 3.60% [15]. Monthly Spread - The spread of 2602 - 2603 increased by 40 yuan/ton, and the spread of 2604 - 2605 increased by 100 yuan/ton [15]. Supply - Demand and Inventory - The output of refined nickel in China decreased by 9.38%, and the import volume decreased by 65.66%. - SHFE inventory decreased by 1.82%, social inventory decreased by 1.43%, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 1.85% [15]. Stainless Steel Industry Price and Spread - The prices of 304/2B stainless steel in Wuxi and Foshan increased by 0.77%. - The prices of some raw materials remained unchanged, and the price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron increased by 0.27% [18]. Monthly Spread - The spreads of 2602 - 2603, 2603 - 2604, and 2604 - 2605 decreased to varying degrees [18]. Fundamental Data - In November, the output of 300 - series stainless steel in China decreased by 0.72%, and the output in Indonesia increased by 0.36%. - The import volume of stainless steel decreased by 9.68%, and the export volume increased by 13.18%. - The 300 - series social inventory decreased by 1.43%, and the SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 0.50% [18]. Lithium Carbonate Industry Price and Spread - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate remained at 118,000 yuan/ton, and the price of SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged. - The price of lithium concentrate decreased by 0.68% [20]. Monthly Spread - The spreads of 2601 - 2602, 2601 - 2603, and 2601 - 2605 decreased to varying degrees [20]. Fundamental Data - In November, the output of lithium carbonate increased by 4.04%, the demand increased by 5.11%, the import volume decreased by 7.64%, and the export volume increased by 208.75%. - The total inventory decreased by 23.36%, the downstream inventory decreased by 21.13%, and the smelter inventory decreased by 27.19% [20].