1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the Shanghai lead futures showed a volatile downward trend, with the main contract 2509 of Shanghai lead futures falling by 1.3%. The supply increased while the demand was insufficient, leading to a slight decline. Powell did not cut interest rates as expected, suppressing the overseas fundamentals and weakening the overseas demand further. Future trading will depend on domestic anti - involution and capacity reduction, as well as the effective recovery of US demand. The challenge to the Fed's independence may be an unexpected factor in the future [4]. - The operating rate of primary lead smelters increased due to the decline in lead prices, resulting in an increase in production. The primary lead operating rate remained stronger than that of secondary lead, and its by - product revenue was stable. However, some primary lead smelters adjusted their production decisions as lead prices fluctuated. For secondary lead, the supply of waste batteries was tight, leading to low confidence among smelters and a tight overall supply. The resumption of production was slow due to cost inversion. On the demand side, the lead - acid battery industry, the main consumer of lead, was approaching the traditional peak season. But in reality, the spot trading was dull, and downstream enterprises generally adopted a wait - and - see attitude. The slow inventory clearance of dealers inhibited the battery factories' enthusiasm for production. If the wait - and - see sentiment continued, the demand for lead in the lead - acid battery industry would not improve significantly next week, and the overall demand would remain weak. The inventory increased slightly, and the number of warehouse receipts also increased, indicating a slowdown in overall demand. Although the lead - acid battery industry was approaching the peak season, the demand had not effectively driven the inventory reduction. If the demand failed to pick up next week, the domestic inventory might continue to accumulate, suppressing the lead price. It is recommended to buy on dips for Shanghai lead [4]. - The main contract 2509 of Shanghai lead will fluctuate in the range of 16400 - 16800, with a stop - loss range of 16200 - 17300. Attention should be paid to the operation rhythm and risk control [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Weekly Key Points Summary - **Market Review**: This week, the Shanghai lead futures showed a volatile downward trend, with the main contract 2509 of Shanghai lead futures falling by 1.3%. The supply increased while the demand was insufficient, leading to a slight decline. Powell did not cut interest rates as expected, suppressing the overseas fundamentals and weakening the overseas demand further [4]. - **Market Outlook**: The operating rate of primary lead smelters increased, and production rose. The primary lead operating rate remained stronger than that of secondary lead, and its by - product revenue was stable. Some primary lead smelters adjusted production decisions. For secondary lead, the supply of waste batteries was tight, resulting in a tight overall supply and slow resumption of production. The lead - acid battery industry was approaching the peak season, but the demand was weak due to the wait - and - see attitude of downstream enterprises. The inventory increased slightly, and the number of warehouse receipts also increased. If the demand did not improve, the domestic inventory might accumulate, suppressing the lead price [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: It is recommended to buy on dips for Shanghai lead. The main contract 2509 will fluctuate in the range of 16400 - 16800, with a stop - loss range of 16200 - 17300 [4]. 3.2. Spot and Futures Market - **Price and Ratio**: The domestic futures price of Shanghai lead was flat compared with last week, while the foreign futures price declined, and the ratio increased. As of July 31, 2025, the futures closing price (electronic disk) of LME 3 - month lead was $1965.5 per ton, and the futures closing price of the active contract of lead was 16955 yuan per ton. As of July 25, 2025, the Shanghai - London ratio of lead was 8.62 [6][10]. - **Premium and Discount**: The domestic futures premium strengthened, while the foreign premium weakened. As of July 31, 2025, the Chinese futures premium was 210 yuan per ton, and the LME lead premium (0 - 3) was - $40.86 per ton [12][15]. - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: Both foreign and domestic lead inventories increased, and the number of warehouse receipts also increased, indicating a weakening overall demand for Shanghai lead. As of July 31, 2025, the total inventory of lead was 6.98 tons, an increase of 0.04 tons; the total LME lead inventory was 276,500 tons, an increase of 10,225 tons; the number of warehouse receipts for Shanghai lead was 62,360 tons, an increase of 2,401 tons [29][33]. 3.3. Industrial Chain Situation - **Supply - Primary Lead**: The operating rate and production of primary lead enterprises increased due to stable processing fees. As of July 24, 2025, the average operating rate of primary lead in major producing areas was 73.80%, an increase of 2.96% from last week; the weekly production of primary lead was 33,500 tons, an increase of 300 tons from last week [18][19]. - **Supply - Secondary Lead**: The capacity utilization rate of secondary lead enterprises increased, but it was still in the off - season, with few waste battery scrapings, and the capacity was difficult to recover. As of July 24, 2025, the domestic production of secondary lead in major producing areas was 19,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 300 tons; the average capacity utilization rate of secondary lead was 46.49%, a month - on - month increase of 5.22% [24][27]. - **Supply - Secondary Lead Enterprises**: The number of secondary lead production enterprises remained unchanged. As of June 30, 2025, the total number of secondary lead production enterprises was 68 [35][37]. - **Supply - Lead Trade**: The export of refined lead was obvious, but the export growth rate declined. The import of refined lead increased significantly. There was an arbitrage opportunity as the overseas lead ingot price was higher than the domestic price and the domestic processing fee was low. In June 2025, the export volume of refined lead was 3,183 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 42.69% and a year - on - year increase of 133.69%. The import volume of refined lead was 817 tons, and the import volume of lead alloy was 10,657 tons. From January to June 2025, the total export volume of refined lead and lead products was 34,748 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 29.89%; the total import volume was 75,013 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 152.1% [39][41]. - **Demand - Lead Concentrate Processing Fees**: The domestic lead concentrate processing fee remained flat, while the import processing fee declined, with little impact on domestic production. As of July 25, 2025, the national average processing fee for lead concentrate was 540 yuan per ton, and the average monthly import processing fee for lead concentrate (Pb60) was - $60 per thousand tons [44][46]. - **Demand - Automobile Sales**: The growth rate of automobile production and sales decreased. In June 2025, domestic automobile sales were 2.904 million, a month - on - month increase of 8.1% and a year - on - year increase of 13.8%. In the first half of 2025, Chinese - brand passenger cars sold 9.27 million, a year - on - year increase of 25%, accounting for 68.5% of the total passenger car sales. Among major foreign brands, the sales of the Korean brand increased slightly, while the sales of the other four major brands decreased slightly. The mainstream price range of new - energy passenger cars was higher than that of traditional fuel passenger cars [51]. - **Demand - Batteries and Chargers**: The price of lead - acid batteries remained flat, and the growth rate of the number of public charging piles slowed down. As of June 2025, the number of national charging piles was 4,096,000. As of July 31, 2025, the average price of 48V/20AH waste lead - acid batteries in Zhejiang was 394 yuan per set [53][56].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, coking coal in the black sector became the biggest driving force, with consecutive daily limit up movements driving the continuous upward trend of steel prices. The expected Politburo meeting and industry policies will still support the market, and the overall warm atmosphere has not ended. The supply - demand fundamentals of the five major steel products have limited contradictions, with supply and demand rising and falling among different varieties and relatively stable inventory [3]. - Currently, the market is trading around macro - sentiment and industry policy expectations. Under the tone of "anti - involution and capacity reduction", many industries have introduced corresponding measures, and the market atmosphere is still quite enthusiastic. Before the introduction of steel policies, the market may not experience an obvious correction, but after the continuous sharp rise of coking coal, the high - level risks are also increasing. The steel market may enter a high - level fluctuation state in the future, and the possibility of further upward movement cannot be ruled out. In the medium - to - long term, pay attention to policy expectations and consumption nodes [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Production - **Monthly Data**: In June 2025, the monthly production of pig iron was 71910,000 tons (-4.1% year - on - year), crude steel was 83180,000 tons (-9.2% year - on - year), and steel was 127840,000 tons (1.8% year - on - year). The cumulative production of pig iron was 434670,000 tons (-0.8% year - on - year), crude steel was 514830,000 tons (-3.0% year - on - year), and steel was 734380,000 tons (4.6% year - on - year). Steel imports were 470,000 tons (-18.3% year - on - year) and exports were 9680,000 tons (10.9% year - on - year) [5]. - **Weekly Data**: As of July 25, 2025, the total weekly output of the five major steel products was 866970 tons (-1.22% change), with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 2.25%. Among them, the output of rebar was 211960 tons (2.9% change, -6% cumulative year - on - year), wire rod was 85250 tons (-1.1% change, -10% cumulative year - on - year), hot - rolled coil was 317490 tons (-3.65% change, 0% cumulative year - on - year), cold - rolled coil was 86960 tons (-0.05% change, 1.05% cumulative year - on - year), and medium - thick plate was 165310 tons (0.68% change, 1.68% cumulative year - on - year) [6]. - **Production Profit**: On July 24, 2025, the profits of different steel products in different regions showed different changes. For example, in East China, the profit of rebar - blast furnace was 349, rebar - electric furnace - off - peak electricity was 5, rebar - electric furnace - normal electricity was 74, and hot - rolled coil - blast furnace was 42 [22]. Steel Demand - **Building Materials Consumption**: The real - estate high - frequency data shows that the cumulative year - on - year decrease in the commercial housing transaction area of 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 3.4%, and the cumulative year - on - year decrease in the land transaction area of 100 cities was 6.7%. The cement outbound volume has been stable recently, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 28%. The concrete shipment volume is relatively balanced, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 15% [29][32]. - **Coil Consumption**: The current export volume of steel is still at a high level. Recently, the domestic and foreign prices of hot - rolled coils have declined, which may affect future exports [38]. Steel Inventory - **Inventory Data**: As of July 25, 2025, the total inventory of the five major steel products was 1337000 tons (-1.16% change), with a year - on - year decrease of 23.97%. Among them, the rebar inventory was 538640 tons (-4.62% change, -29.15% year - on - year), wire rod inventory was 98220 tons (1.05% change, -36% year - on - year), hot - rolled coil inventory was 345160 tons (2.25% change, -20% year - on - year), cold - rolled coil inventory was 169950 tons (-0.27% change, -10.06% year - on - year), and medium - thick plate inventory was 184530 tons (0.43% change, -17.56% year - on - year) [6]. - **Basis and Spread**: The rebar basis remained stable, at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years. During this price increase, the spot and futures prices generally increased synchronously, and the low rebar inventory supported the spot price. The hot - rolled coil basis continued to decline this week, and seasonally, it still faces the law of weakening in the later stage. The rebar monthly spread continued to weaken this week, and the back structure continued to develop. The 10 - 1 spread of hot - rolled coils fluctuated at a low level this week with little change [52][57][62].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Cautiously bullish [1] - L: Cautiously bullish [1] - PP: Cautiously bullish [1] - PVC: Cautiously bullish [1] - PX: Cautiously bullish [1] - PTA/PR: Cautiously bullish [1] - Ethylene glycol: Bullish [1] - Glass: Bullish [2] - Soda ash: Bullish [2] - Caustic soda: Cautiously bullish [2] - Methanol: Cautiously bullish [2] - Urea: Bullish [2] - Asphalt: Bearish [2] - Propylene: Cautiously bullish [2] 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude oil: The peak - season market is in the second half, and oil prices are oscillating weakly due to EU sanctions on Russia and OPEC+ expansion [1][3][4] - LPG: With stable cost, rising downstream开工率, it is short - term bullish, and previous short positions can take profit [1][6][7] - L: It is mainly following market sentiment for a short - term rebound, affected by anti - involution to a limited extent [1][10][11] - PP: The spot price has turned from falling to rising, with reduced inventory pressure and expected high export growth [1][13][14] - PVC: Driven by policy expectations and rising coal prices, it is short - term bullish despite weak fundamentals [1][17][18] - PX: Supply - demand is in tight balance, with high inventory and macro - policy support, suggesting holding long positions [1][20][21] - PTA/PR: Supply pressure is expected to increase, but short - term bullish due to anti - involution policies [1][23][24] - Ethylene glycol: Supply and demand are slightly loose, but with macro - policy support, it is recommended to go long at low levels [1][26][27] - Glass: Policy expectations boost the market, with inventory de - stocking and rising prices [2][29][31] - Soda ash: Despite high supply and inventory, it is following market sentiment and recommended to go long on pullbacks [2][32][33] - Caustic soda: Supply is approaching saturation, but demand from alumina is improving, and the market is bullish [2][34][35] - Methanol: Supply - demand has improved, and it is oscillating strongly due to macro - policies [2][36] - Urea: Supply is increasing, but with policy support and export expectations, it is recommended to go long lightly [2] - Asphalt: Cost is under pressure in the medium - long term, and it is recommended to go short lightly [2] - Propylene: Low valuation provides support, and it is recommended to go long at low levels [2] 3. Summaries by Variety Crude oil - Market situation: International oil prices fell overnight, with WTI down 0.27%, Brent down 0.35%, and SC up 1.63%. The current weak - expectation and strong - reality situation has support at the bottom, but OPEC+ expansion brings downward pressure [3][4] - Strategy: Lightly short and buy call options for protection, with SC in the range of [500 - 515] [1][5] LPG - Market situation: On July 20, the PG main contract closed at 4068 yuan/ton, up 0.15%. The cost is stable, downstream PDH开工率 is rising, and port inventory is accumulating [6][7] - Strategy: Take profit on previous short positions, with PG in the range of [3950 - 4050] [1][8] L - Market situation: The absolute price has low - valuation support, and it follows market sentiment for a short - term rebound. Social inventory has accumulated for 3 weeks, but the off - season for agricultural films is approaching an end [10][11] - Strategy: Try to go long on short - term pullbacks, with L in the range of [7200 - 7400] [1][12] PP - Market situation: The spot price has rebounded, with inventory de - stocking and increased unexpected maintenance. 1 - 6 months' exports increased by 21% year - on - year [13][14] - Strategy: Try to go long on short - term pullbacks, with PP in the range of [7000 - 7200] [1][15] PVC - Market situation: Driven by policy expectations and rising coal prices, the market is bullish in the short term, but inventory is accumulating, and the fundamental weakness limits the rebound space [17][18] - Strategy: Try to go long on short - term pullbacks, with V in the range of [5100 - 5300] [1][19] PX - Market situation: Supply - demand is in tight balance, inventory is high, and macro - policies are favorable. The PXN spread is not low, and the basis is narrowing [20][21] - Strategy: Hold existing long positions and consider adding long positions on pullbacks, with PX in the range of [6820 - 6910] [1][22] PTA/PR - Market situation: Supply pressure is expected to increase, and demand is weak. However, it is short - term bullish due to anti - involution policies [23][24] - Strategy: Add long positions on pullbacks, with TA in the range of [4740 - 4810] [1][25] Ethylene glycol - Market situation: Supply and demand are slightly loose, but low inventory and macro - policies support the price. Import and arrival are low [26][27] - Strategy: Try to go long at low levels, with EG in the range of [4405 - 4450] [1][28] Glass - Market situation: Policy expectations boost the market, inventory has been de - stocking for 4 weeks, and the spot price has increased [29][31] - Strategy: Go long based on the 5 - day moving average, with FG in the range of [1160 - 1200] [2][31] Soda ash - Market situation: High supply and inventory, but following market sentiment. The inventory has reached a new high, and the supply - demand surplus remains [32][33] - Strategy: Go long on pullbacks, with SA in the range of [1290 - 1350] [2] Caustic soda - Market situation: Supply is approaching saturation, but demand from alumina is improving, and the market is bullish [34][35] - Strategy: Go long cautiously based on the 10 - day moving average, with SH in the range of [2560 - 2620] [2] Methanol - Market situation: Supply - demand has improved, and it is oscillating strongly due to macro - policies [36] - Strategy: Try to go long on pullbacks, with MA in the range of [2385 - 2435] [2] Urea - Market situation: Supply is increasing, but with policy support and export expectations [2] - Strategy: Try to go long lightly, with UR in the range of [1800 - 1835] [2] Asphalt - Market situation: Cost is under pressure in the medium - long term, and supply and demand are both increasing, but inventory is accumulating [2] - Strategy: Go short lightly, with BU in the range of [3580 - 3680] [2] Propylene - Market situation: Low valuation provides support, and it is recommended to go long at low levels [2] - Strategy: Go long unilaterally at low levels and consider shorting the 1 - 2 month spread or PP processing fees, with a focus on the range of [6250 - 6600] [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the continued upward trend in futures for coking coal and coke, with coking coal futures rising over 4% [1] - There is an increasing expectation in the market for price hikes in coke due to enhanced expectations for capacity reduction in response to "anti-involution" measures [1] - The article raises the question of whether prices can continue to rise in the future [1]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes indicate that participants believe it may be appropriate to lower the federal funds rate target range this year as inflation and activity outlooks become clearer [1] - The U.S. soybean export net sales for the week ending July 3 are expected to be between 300,000 to 600,000 tons for the 2024/25 marketing year, and between 50,000 to 400,000 tons for the 2025/26 marketing year [1] - In June, the national consumer price index in China rose by 0.1% year-on-year, with urban prices up by 0.1% and rural prices down by 0.2% [1] Group 2 - The average transaction price for low-sulfur coking coal in Lishi, Shanxi, reached 1,123 yuan per ton, an increase of 123 yuan per ton compared to June 25, due to market sentiment and lack of participation from coal mines in recent auctions [1] - The sugar production in Brazil's central-south region is expected to decrease by 9.8% to 2.95 million tons, with sugarcane crushing down by 9.7% year-on-year to 44.24 million tons [1] - Malaysia's palm oil production is projected to increase to 19.5 million tons for the 2025/26 marketing year, reflecting a growth of 0.5% [1] Group 3 - The total inventory of refined oil at the Port of Fujairah in the UAE reached 20.685 million barrels, an increase of 152,900 barrels from the previous week [1] - U.S. crude oil exports rose by 452,000 barrels per day to 2.757 million barrels per day for the week ending July 4, while strategic petroleum reserve stocks increased by 23,800 barrels to 403 million barrels [1] - Goldman Sachs maintains its copper price forecast at $9,700 per ton for December 2025 on the London Stock Exchange, adjusting the U.S. copper import tariff benchmark from 25% to 50% [1] Group 4 - The photovoltaic industry is advancing a plan to "reduce internal competition and cut capacity," aiming to establish a platform company for debt acquisition of excess capacity, which will help balance supply and demand [1] - The international oil prices saw a slight decline, with U.S. oil closing at $68.29 per barrel and Brent at $70.13 per barrel, while the U.S. EIA reported an unexpected increase in crude oil inventories by 7.07 million barrels [1] - International precious metal futures showed mixed results, with COMEX gold rising by 0.17% to $3,322.50 per ounce, while silver fell by 0.39% to $36.61 per ounce, influenced by trade tensions prompting central banks to increase gold purchases [1]

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In June, the CPI increased by 0.1% year-on-year, turning positive from negative; month-on-month, it decreased by 0.1%, with the decline narrowing[5] - Food CPI continued its downward trend, recording -0.3% year-on-year, primarily due to pork prices dropping by 8.5%, a decrease of 11.6 percentage points from the previous month[5] - Core CPI reached 0.7% year-on-year, the highest in 14 months, supported by consumption policies and a significant increase in e-commerce sales during the "618" shopping festival, which totaled 855.6 billion yuan, up 15.2% year-on-year[5] Group 2: PPI Analysis - In May, the PPI decreased by 3.6% year-on-year and 0.4% month-on-month, with production material prices down by 4.4%[10] - The decline in PPI was exacerbated by weak demand in the real estate sector and a high base effect from the previous year, with June's PPI drop expanding by 0.3 percentage points, nearing its lowest point of the year[10] - The PPI for June is expected to remain around -3%, influenced by seasonal production slowdowns and recent declines in international oil prices[16] Group 3: Future Outlook - For July, CPI is projected to remain around 0.1%, with food and energy prices continuing to exert downward pressure, while core CPI provides some support[15] - PPI is also expected to stay low, around -3%, due to seasonal factors and ongoing adjustments in the real estate market, although regulatory measures may provide some price support in key industries[16] - The overall price levels are anticipated to continue fluctuating at low levels, with limited upward momentum due to weak demand and high base effects from the previous year[15]

Core Viewpoint - The recent Central Financial Committee meeting emphasized the need to regulate low-price disorderly competition among enterprises, guide companies to improve product quality, and promote the orderly exit of outdated production capacity. This policy signal has led to a noticeable recovery in the sentiment of the bulk commodity market, with some investors anticipating market benefits similar to those from the supply-side structural reforms of 2016 [3][4]. Policy Impact Analysis - Different periods may have varying policy focuses, necessitating an in-depth analysis of the core impact range of policies. Attention should be directed towards industries with severe overcapacity, widespread losses, high proportions of outdated capacity, and strong policy constraints [4]. - Industries such as polysilicon, industrial silicon, and PVC currently exhibit persistently low profit levels, aligning with the main objectives of policy regulation. The sustainability of profit improvement in these industries hinges on the enforcement strength of policies and the effectiveness of actual capacity clearance [4][5]. Historical Context - The aluminum industry serves as an example where strong policy constraints successfully led to sustained profit improvements during the last capacity reduction phase. Historical experience indicates that there is a certain lag between policy issuance and market rebound, ultimately relying on strict enforcement to achieve profit redistribution within the industry chain [4]. Current Industry Status - Leading companies in industries like polysilicon are beginning to formulate capacity optimization plans. However, due to differences in company nature, interest conflicts, and market constraints, the realization of substantial capacity clearance in the industry will require more time for validation [5]. Profit and Capacity Overview - A summary of key indicators for various bulk commodities, including profit levels, capacity concentration, and the nature of enterprises, has been compiled for reference [6]. - For example, the profit margins and capacity concentration for several commodities are as follows: - PVC: -13% profit margin, 40% capacity concentration, state-owned enterprises [9] - Polysilicon: -13.5% profit margin, 82.23% capacity concentration, private enterprises [10] - Urea: 20% profit margin, 28% capacity concentration, state-owned enterprises [9] - Copper products show varying profit margins, with electrolytic copper at 0.31% and lithium battery copper foil at 26.07% [10].