Report Overview - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report - Report Date: September 18, 2025 - Analyst: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The LLDPE market is expected to fluctuate today, with geopolitical turmoil in the crude oil market, the agricultural film demand entering the peak season but still weaker than in previous years, and the industrial inventory being moderately high [4]. - The PP market is also expected to fluctuate today, with geopolitical turmoil in the crude oil market, improving demand for downstream pipes and plastic weaving, and moderately high industrial inventory [7]. Summary by Content LLDPE Analysis - **Fundamentals**: In August, the official PMI was 49.4, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the Caixin PMI was 50.4, up 0.6 percentage points. China's exports in August were $321.81 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4.4%, but a decline from July. The agricultural film is gradually entering the peak season, but the overall demand is still weaker than in previous years, while the demand for other packaging films has rebounded. The current spot price of the LL delivery product is 7,230 (+0), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is -15, with a premium/discount ratio of -0.2%, which is neutral [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 551,000 tons (+6,000), which is bearish [4]. - **Market**: The 20-day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20-day line, which is bearish [4]. - **Main Position**: The main position of LLDPE is net short, with a reduction in short positions, which is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to fluctuate today [4]. - **Leverage Factors**: Geopolitical turmoil provides cost support, and demand is gradually entering the peak season; however, the year-on-year demand is still weak [5]. PP Analysis - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, the macroeconomic situation shows some improvement in manufacturing sentiment. The demand for downstream pipes and plastic weaving is improving. The current spot price of the PP delivery product is 6,850 (-0), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [7]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is -132, with a premium/discount ratio of -1.9%, which is bearish [7]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 551,000 tons (-25,000), which is neutral [7]. - **Market**: The 20-day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20-day line, which is bearish [7]. - **Main Position**: The main position of PP is net short, with an increase in short positions, which is bearish [7]. - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to fluctuate today [7]. - **Leverage Factors**: Geopolitical turmoil provides cost support, and demand is gradually entering the peak season; however, the year-on-year demand is still weak [8]. Market Data - **LLDPE**: The spot price of the delivery product is 7,230, the price of the 01 contract is 7,245, the basis is -15, the number of warehouse receipts is 12,736, and the PE comprehensive factory inventory is 551,000 tons [10]. - **PP**: The spot price of the delivery product is 6,850, the price of the 01 contract is 6,982, the basis is -132, the number of warehouse receipts is 13,706, and the PP comprehensive factory inventory is 551,000 tons [10]. Supply and Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity and output of polyethylene have generally increased, with the import dependence gradually decreasing. The expected production capacity in 2025 is 4.3195 million tons, with a growth rate of 20.5% [15]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity and output of polypropylene have also increased, with the import dependence gradually decreasing. The expected production capacity in 2025 is 4.906 million tons, with a growth rate of 11.0% [17].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core View - The absolute price of crude oil has fallen to $65 per barrel for Brent this week, and the monthly spreads of the three major crude oil markets have slightly declined. Geopolitical uncertainties have resurfaced due to the situation in Ukraine and Iran. Fundamentally, global oil inventories have increased this week, with a slight draw in US commercial crude oil and gasoline/diesel, a slight build in Singapore's light and medium - quality products, and a draw in European ARA region gasoline and a slight build in diesel. After the decline in crude oil prices, global refinery margins have rebounded on a weekly basis. The near - term crude oil fundamentals are volatile. Sanctions on Iran and Russia pose a risk of supply decline, OPEC+ crude oil exports are expected to accelerate, and refinery operations in the third quarter are expected to be stronger than anticipated, supporting the monthly spread levels. However, the peak of the global supply - demand fundamentals has passed. It is expected that the absolute price of crude oil will maintain a volatile pattern, and it is expected to fall to $55 - $60 per barrel in the fourth quarter. Attention should be paid to the impact of US tariff policies on the global economy and the non - OPEC production start - up rhythm [6]. 3. Summary by Section Daily News - Trump stated in a call with European leaders that the core goal of his meeting with Putin this week is to achieve a cease - fire in Ukraine, not to discuss territorial division. All leaders agree that Ukraine must participate in the negotiations throughout, and the decision on territorial concessions belongs solely to Ukraine. If Putin refuses to cease fire, Trump may impose new sanctions on Russia. US Treasury Secretary Besent said that sanctions can be escalated or relaxed and may have a schedule, and Europe needs to join these sanctions [3]. - Russia announced production cuts of 85,000 barrels per day from July to November and an additional 9,000 barrels per day in December. France, the UK, and Germany's foreign ministers said they will activate the sanctions "restoration mechanism" against Iran if a satisfactory solution is not found by the end of August. In July, Russia's seaborne oil product exports decreased by 6.6% month - on - month, and the idle refining capacity reached a peak for the year [3][4]. Regional Fundamentals - EIA reports show that in the week ending August 8, US crude oil exports increased by 259,000 barrels per day to 3.577 million barrels per day, domestic crude oil production increased by 43,000 barrels to 13.327 million barrels per day, commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) increased by 3.036 million barrels to 427 million barrels (a 0.72% increase), the four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 21.159 million barrels per day (a 2.89% increase compared to the same period last year), the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 226,000 barrels to 403.2 million barrels (a 0.06% increase), and crude oil imports (excluding strategic reserves) were 6.92 million barrels per day, an increase of 958,000 barrels per day from the previous week [5]. - From July 25 - 31, the operating rate of major refineries in China increased slightly, while that of Shandong local refineries remained basically flat. In China, refinery output showed a decline in gasoline and an increase in diesel, and inventories also showed a decline in gasoline and an increase in diesel. The comprehensive profit of major refineries rebounded on a weekly basis, while that of local refineries declined [5]. Weekly View - The absolute price of crude oil has fallen, and the monthly spreads have slightly declined. Geopolitical uncertainties have increased. Fundamentally, there are mixed inventory trends globally. Refinery margins have rebounded. The near - term fundamentals are volatile, and the absolute price is expected to be volatile and fall in the fourth quarter [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term crude oil prices may continue the oscillating pattern, with upward pressure but strong support below. Geopolitical factors limit the decline, while demand - side differentiation restrains the upward momentum. The depletion of domestic warehouse receipts supports the relative strength of SC, and the overall price will maintain an interval oscillation, waiting for the results of the negotiation or OPEC+ policy signals [4]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary - **Crude Oil Futures Market Data Changes**: On August 12, 2025, the domestic SC crude oil main contract rose 1.19% to 495.2 yuan/barrel, while WTI and Brent fell 1.44% and 0.9% respectively. SC - Brent and SC - WTI spreads widened by 1.32 and 1.64 dollars/barrel respectively, and the Brent - WTI spread also slightly widened to 3.03 dollars/barrel. The SC near - month - to - third - consecutive - month spread narrowed by 1.6 yuan/barrel. Market sentiment was cautious, and the intraday amplitude of WTI shrank by 1.2 dollars/barrel [2]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes in the Industrial Chain**: - **Supply**: OPEC's monthly report indicates that the US tight oil production may decline by 100,000 barrels per day next year, strengthening the long - term supply tightening expectation. However, there is still short - term supply increase pressure, such as Iraq's exploration of new oil export routes [3]. - **Demand**: China's net oil imports increased by 490,000 barrels per day month - on - month, showing marginal demand recovery. India's imports increased by 50,000 barrels per day, but consumption in the first seven months decreased by 0.5% year - on - year. The US gasoline peak season is approaching the end, and there is no significant gap in the current supply and demand of refined oil in China [3]. - **Inventory**: The warehouse receipts of medium - sulfur crude oil decreased by 482,000 barrels to 4.767 million barrels, and the warehouse receipts of low - sulfur fuel oil decreased by 5,000 tons to 21,100 tons [3]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **Crude Oil**: The prices of SC, WTI, and Brent futures had different trends on August 12, 2025. Spot prices of various types of crude oil also changed, and spreads such as SC - Brent, SC - WTI, and Brent - WTI widened. The US commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 0.71%, and the Cushing inventory increased by 2.01%. The US refinery weekly operating rate increased by 1.57% [6]. - **Fuel Oil**: Futures prices of FU, LU, and NYMEX fuel oil changed on August 12, 2025. Spot prices of various types of fuel oil also showed different trends, and spreads such as the Singapore high - low sulfur spread and the China high - low sulfur spread changed [7]. 3.3 Industrial Dynamics and Interpretations - **Supply**: Iraq is studying the possibility of exporting oil through Lebanon's Tripoli port. OPEC's monthly report shows that India's net oil product imports increased by 50,000 barrels per day to 4.86 million barrels per day, China's increased by 490,000 barrels per day to 12.52 million barrels per day, and the US increased by 350,000 barrels per day to - 2.23 million barrels per day. It is expected that the US tight oil production will decline by 100,000 barrels per day next year [8][9]. - **Demand**: OPEC's monthly report expects the oil outlook to be tighter next year due to accelerated demand growth. The global crude oil demand growth rate forecast for 2025 is maintained at 1.29 million barrels per day, and that for 2026 is adjusted from 1.28 million to 1.38 million barrels per day. India's oil consumption decreased by 0.5% year - on - year in the first seven months of 2025 [10]. - **Inventory**: The medium - sulfur crude oil futures warehouse receipts decreased by 482,000 barrels to 4.767 million barrels, the fuel oil futures warehouse receipts remained flat, and the low - sulfur fuel oil warehouse receipts decreased by 5,000 tons to 21,050 tons [11]. - **Market Information**: As of 2:30 on August 13, the closing prices of Shanghai gold, Shanghai silver, and SC crude oil main contracts changed. On August 12, the domestic refined oil price was not adjusted. The market is waiting for the US - Russia negotiation, and the crude oil price is in a short - term oscillating state [11][12]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Data Charts The report provides multiple data charts, including WTI and Brent first - line contract prices and spreads, SC and WTI spreads, US crude oil weekly production, OPEC crude oil production, etc., with data sources such as WIND, EIA, PAJ, and iFinD [13][15][17] etc.

Core Viewpoint - Recent oil prices have stabilized after a decline from high levels, with the market awaiting US-Russia negotiations, leading to cautious sentiment among investors [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Oil prices are currently experiencing a period of stabilization and fluctuation after a downward trend [1] - The market is primarily in a wait-and-see mode as negotiations between the US and Russia approach [1] Group 2: Negotiation Context - There is a significant divergence in market sentiment regarding the upcoming talks, with both bullish and bearish perspectives [1] - As the negotiation date nears, more details are expected to emerge, indicating that territorial issues may be used as bargaining chips, complicating the talks [1] Group 3: Price Support - Despite the complexities surrounding the negotiations, oil prices have shown resilience against further declines, indicating strong support levels in the short term [1] - The market is anticipated to maintain a fluctuating trend in the near future [1]

Group 1: Commodity Market Overview - The commodity market is experiencing complex trends, with significant divergence in agricultural futures across different exchanges [1] - Oil prices are showing frequent fluctuations, indicating ongoing market attention to supply and demand dynamics [1] - Precious metals are also undergoing price adjustments, with investor sentiment oscillating between safe-haven demand and economic expectations [1] Group 2: Agricultural Futures Market - The Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) agricultural futures show mixed performance, with raw sugar futures down 1.75% to 16.28 cents/pound and cotton futures down 0.70% to 68.23 cents/pound on July 25 [3] - Cocoa futures increased by 2.62% to $8,337.00/ton, while coffee futures fell by 2.30% to 297.85 cents/pound [3] - The Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) also saw price adjustments, with soybean futures down 0.24% to 1,021.75 cents/bushel, corn futures down 0.42% to 419.00 cents/bushel, and wheat futures down 0.42% to 539.25 cents/bushel on July 25 [3] Group 3: Oil Market Dynamics - WTI crude oil futures are showing a volatile trend, closing at $65.16/barrel on July 26, down 1.32%, with a weekly decline of approximately 1.35% [4] - Brent crude oil futures also fell by 1.07% to $68.44/barrel, with a weekly drop of 1.21% [4] - The price fluctuations indicate a cautious market sentiment, with WTI crude oil prices hovering around $65/barrel, remaining below the $70/barrel threshold, reflecting complex changes in supply and demand fundamentals [4]