原油成品油早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/08/14 | 日期 | WTI | BRENT | DUBAI | diff FOB dated bre | BRENT 1- | WTI-BREN | DUBAI-B | NYMEX RB | RBOB-BR | NYMEX | HO-BRT | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 2月差 | T | RT（EFS | OB | T | HO | | | | | | | nt | | | | | | | | | 2025/08/07 | 63.88 | 66.43 | 69.13 | - | 0.53 | -2.55 | 0.55 | 207.75 | 20.83 | 226.68 | 28.78 | | 2025/08/08 | 63.88 | 66.59 | 69.22 | 0.30 | 0.67 | -2.71 | 0.37 | 208.61 | 21.03 | 227.93 | 29.14 | | 2025/08/11 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term crude oil prices may continue the oscillating pattern, with upward pressure but strong support below. Geopolitical factors limit the decline, while demand - side differentiation restrains the upward momentum. The depletion of domestic warehouse receipts supports the relative strength of SC, and the overall price will maintain an interval oscillation, waiting for the results of the negotiation or OPEC+ policy signals [4]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary - **Crude Oil Futures Market Data Changes**: On August 12, 2025, the domestic SC crude oil main contract rose 1.19% to 495.2 yuan/barrel, while WTI and Brent fell 1.44% and 0.9% respectively. SC - Brent and SC - WTI spreads widened by 1.32 and 1.64 dollars/barrel respectively, and the Brent - WTI spread also slightly widened to 3.03 dollars/barrel. The SC near - month - to - third - consecutive - month spread narrowed by 1.6 yuan/barrel. Market sentiment was cautious, and the intraday amplitude of WTI shrank by 1.2 dollars/barrel [2]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes in the Industrial Chain**: - **Supply**: OPEC's monthly report indicates that the US tight oil production may decline by 100,000 barrels per day next year, strengthening the long - term supply tightening expectation. However, there is still short - term supply increase pressure, such as Iraq's exploration of new oil export routes [3]. - **Demand**: China's net oil imports increased by 490,000 barrels per day month - on - month, showing marginal demand recovery. India's imports increased by 50,000 barrels per day, but consumption in the first seven months decreased by 0.5% year - on - year. The US gasoline peak season is approaching the end, and there is no significant gap in the current supply and demand of refined oil in China [3]. - **Inventory**: The warehouse receipts of medium - sulfur crude oil decreased by 482,000 barrels to 4.767 million barrels, and the warehouse receipts of low - sulfur fuel oil decreased by 5,000 tons to 21,100 tons [3]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **Crude Oil**: The prices of SC, WTI, and Brent futures had different trends on August 12, 2025. Spot prices of various types of crude oil also changed, and spreads such as SC - Brent, SC - WTI, and Brent - WTI widened. The US commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 0.71%, and the Cushing inventory increased by 2.01%. The US refinery weekly operating rate increased by 1.57% [6]. - **Fuel Oil**: Futures prices of FU, LU, and NYMEX fuel oil changed on August 12, 2025. Spot prices of various types of fuel oil also showed different trends, and spreads such as the Singapore high - low sulfur spread and the China high - low sulfur spread changed [7]. 3.3 Industrial Dynamics and Interpretations - **Supply**: Iraq is studying the possibility of exporting oil through Lebanon's Tripoli port. OPEC's monthly report shows that India's net oil product imports increased by 50,000 barrels per day to 4.86 million barrels per day, China's increased by 490,000 barrels per day to 12.52 million barrels per day, and the US increased by 350,000 barrels per day to - 2.23 million barrels per day. It is expected that the US tight oil production will decline by 100,000 barrels per day next year [8][9]. - **Demand**: OPEC's monthly report expects the oil outlook to be tighter next year due to accelerated demand growth. The global crude oil demand growth rate forecast for 2025 is maintained at 1.29 million barrels per day, and that for 2026 is adjusted from 1.28 million to 1.38 million barrels per day. India's oil consumption decreased by 0.5% year - on - year in the first seven months of 2025 [10]. - **Inventory**: The medium - sulfur crude oil futures warehouse receipts decreased by 482,000 barrels to 4.767 million barrels, the fuel oil futures warehouse receipts remained flat, and the low - sulfur fuel oil warehouse receipts decreased by 5,000 tons to 21,050 tons [11]. - **Market Information**: As of 2:30 on August 13, the closing prices of Shanghai gold, Shanghai silver, and SC crude oil main contracts changed. On August 12, the domestic refined oil price was not adjusted. The market is waiting for the US - Russia negotiation, and the crude oil price is in a short - term oscillating state [11][12]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Data Charts The report provides multiple data charts, including WTI and Brent first - line contract prices and spreads, SC and WTI spreads, US crude oil weekly production, OPEC crude oil production, etc., with data sources such as WIND, EIA, PAJ, and iFinD [13][15][17] etc.

Core Viewpoint - Recent oil prices have stabilized after a decline from high levels, with the market awaiting US-Russia negotiations, leading to cautious sentiment among investors [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Oil prices are currently experiencing a period of stabilization and fluctuation after a downward trend [1] - The market is primarily in a wait-and-see mode as negotiations between the US and Russia approach [1] Group 2: Negotiation Context - There is a significant divergence in market sentiment regarding the upcoming talks, with both bullish and bearish perspectives [1] - As the negotiation date nears, more details are expected to emerge, indicating that territorial issues may be used as bargaining chips, complicating the talks [1] Group 3: Price Support - Despite the complexities surrounding the negotiations, oil prices have shown resilience against further declines, indicating strong support levels in the short term [1] - The market is anticipated to maintain a fluctuating trend in the near future [1]

Group 1: Commodity Market Overview - The commodity market is experiencing complex trends, with significant divergence in agricultural futures across different exchanges [1] - Oil prices are showing frequent fluctuations, indicating ongoing market attention to supply and demand dynamics [1] - Precious metals are also undergoing price adjustments, with investor sentiment oscillating between safe-haven demand and economic expectations [1] Group 2: Agricultural Futures Market - The Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) agricultural futures show mixed performance, with raw sugar futures down 1.75% to 16.28 cents/pound and cotton futures down 0.70% to 68.23 cents/pound on July 25 [3] - Cocoa futures increased by 2.62% to $8,337.00/ton, while coffee futures fell by 2.30% to 297.85 cents/pound [3] - The Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) also saw price adjustments, with soybean futures down 0.24% to 1,021.75 cents/bushel, corn futures down 0.42% to 419.00 cents/bushel, and wheat futures down 0.42% to 539.25 cents/bushel on July 25 [3] Group 3: Oil Market Dynamics - WTI crude oil futures are showing a volatile trend, closing at $65.16/barrel on July 26, down 1.32%, with a weekly decline of approximately 1.35% [4] - Brent crude oil futures also fell by 1.07% to $68.44/barrel, with a weekly drop of 1.21% [4] - The price fluctuations indicate a cautious market sentiment, with WTI crude oil prices hovering around $65/barrel, remaining below the $70/barrel threshold, reflecting complex changes in supply and demand fundamentals [4]