原油成品油早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/08/14 | 日期 | WTI | BRENT | DUBAI | diff FOB dated bre | BRENT 1- | WTI-BREN | DUBAI-B | NYMEX RB | RBOB-BR | NYMEX | HO-BRT | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 2月差 | T | RT（EFS | OB | T | HO | | | | | | | nt | | | | | | | | | 2025/08/07 | 63.88 | 66.43 | 69.13 | - | 0.53 | -2.55 | 0.55 | 207.75 | 20.83 | 226.68 | 28.78 | | 2025/08/08 | 63.88 | 66.59 | 69.22 | 0.30 | 0.67 | -2.71 | 0.37 | 208.61 | 21.03 | 227.93 | 29.14 | | 2025/08/11 ...

Core Viewpoint - The International Energy Agency (IEA) reports that global oil supply growth will outpace demand growth by three times this year, indicating a significant increase in oil supply due to external factors despite seasonal market tightness [1] Supply and Demand - IEA projects oil supply to increase by 2.1 million barrels per day (bpd) this year and 1.3 million bpd next year, revised upwards from previous estimates of 1.8 million bpd and 1.1 million bpd respectively [1] - The primary driver of this supply growth is attributed to countries outside the OPEC+ alliance, despite the recent large-scale production increase by OPEC+ [1] Market Dynamics - Seasonal factors are contributing to short-term market tightness, even as supply is expected to grow significantly [1] - Concerns over potential supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have led several Gulf oil-producing countries to increase exports during the ongoing conflict with Iran [1] Recent Developments - Last month, global oil supply surged by 950,000 bpd, with Saudi Arabia showing the largest increase in production [1]

金十数据6月16日讯，欧佩克下调了对美国和其他竞争对手明年供应增长的预期，但在继续增产的同 时，维持对石油需求的预期不变。欧佩克预计，2026年，欧佩克+以外产油国的供应量将从此前的80万 桶/日下降到73万桶/日。美国石油产量预计将增加21万桶/日，而此前的预期为28万桶/日，反映出资本 支出下降和钻探活动放缓。最新的欧佩克月报没有直接提到以色列和伊朗的冲突。市场最大的担忧是伊 朗可能关闭霍尔木兹海峡，这是一个重要的航运咽喉，世界上大约三分之一的石油都要经过这里。分析 师表示，任何供应中断都可能促使欧佩克+调整战略，以比预期更快的速度恢复供应。但欧佩克似乎处 于观望状态，并没有制定任何召开特别政策会议的计划。欧佩克目前的闲置产能超过500万桶/日。 欧佩克认为竞争对手供应增长放缓，维持需求前景稳定 ...

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 5 月 16 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周四油价重心下移，其中 WTI 6 月合约收盘下跌 1.53 美元至 61.62 | | | | 美元/桶，跌幅 2.42%。布伦特 7 月合约收盘下跌 1.56 美元至 64.53 | | | | 美元/桶，跌幅 2.36%。SC2506 以 461.6 元/桶收盘，下跌 16.9 元 | | | | /桶，跌幅 3.53%。美伊谈判进展乐观，美国总统特朗普在卡塔尔 | | | | 首都多哈表示，伊朗已经同意了有关核问题协议的部分条件，他 | | | | 将敦促伊朗在不获得核武器的情况下达成协议。美国正在与伊朗 | | | 原油 | 进行认真的谈判，以实现长期和平。作为解除对伊朗所有经济制 | 震荡 | | | 裁的条件，伊朗愿承诺永远不制造核武器，去除高浓缩铀库存， | | | | 同意只将铀浓缩到民用所需的较低水平，并允许国际机构监督这 | | | | 一进程。IEA 在月度报告中表示，预计今年全球石油供应量将增 | | | | 加 ...

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs expects OPEC+ to halt further oil production increases starting in August due to slowing economic activity and weak oil demand [1] Group 1: OPEC+ Production Decisions - OPEC is anticipated to make its "final" decision to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in July [1] - The expectation is that hard data will begin to weaken around late summer [1] Group 2: Oil Demand Projections - Global oil demand growth is projected to slow from 600,000 barrels per day in the first quarter to flat in the second quarter [1] Group 3: Production Outlook Risks - The production outlook remains skewed to the upside, particularly if compliance with production targets does not improve [1]