热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：能源研发中心 | 讲 | | | | 期货主力合约 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅% | 持仓量 | 持仓走势 | | सिर् 每 | 中国SC原油期货 | 479.80 | 0.82 | 45023 | | | H | 美国WT原油期货 | 64.63 | 1.05 | 144000 | | | 信 | 英国BRENT原油期货 | 69.40 | 0.87 | 540674 | | | ਜਿੰ | 美国RBOB汽油期货 | 1.9780 | 0.96 | 115000 | | | | 英国ICE柴油期货 | 695.25 | 2.17 | 197784 | | 后市观点 周三油价一度大涨，布伦特原油再次冲上70美元关口，最大涨幅一度近3%，冲高后日内又出现大幅回 落，最终涨幅为日内高点一半左右，这样的表现再次显示市场分歧较大。 地缘因素再次引发市场焦虑，特朗普强调将继续与伊朗谈判，但是美伊立场诉求的差异明显，市场对于 谈判前景普遍预期偏悲观。若美伊谈判 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term oil price may be pushed up by the rising natural gas price, but it is difficult to become the main upward logic, so it is advisable to be cautious about chasing up [7]. - The US is accelerating the takeover of Venezuela's oil industry and has sold the first batch of Venezuelan oil, which is marginally bearish for the supply side. It is highly likely that Venezuela will achieve a daily production increase of 100,000 barrels this year. The situation in Iran has cooled down, but the US still retains the option to strike. The production and export scale of Iran are much larger than those of Venezuela, and its geographical location is extremely sensitive. The Middle - East situation should be continuously monitored [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: WTI's opening price was $59.57, closing price was $60.67, highest price was $60.89, lowest price was $59.22, with a daily increase of 0.51% and a trading volume of 30.31 million barrels. Brent's opening price was $63.55, closing price was $64.62, highest price was $64.74, lowest price was $63.05, with a daily increase of 0.67% and a trading volume of 40.61 million barrels. SC's opening price was 444.5 yuan/barrel, closing price was 446.4 yuan/barrel, highest price was 448.6 yuan/barrel, lowest price was 444.1 yuan/barrel, with a daily increase of 1.2% and a trading volume of 8.42 million barrels [6]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Be cautious about chasing up short - term oil prices [7]. 3.2 Industry News - The IEA monthly report raised the global oil supply growth forecast for 2026 from 2.4 million barrels per day to 2.5 million barrels per day and increased the average growth forecast of oil demand in 2026 to 930,000 barrels per day, up from the previous forecast of 860,000 barrels per day [8]. - A source said that the US Energy Secretary told oil industry executives at the Davos meeting that Venezuela's oil production is expected to increase by 30% from the current 900,000 barrels per day in the medium and short term [8]. - Valero Energy made its first purchase of Venezuelan crude oil, with an agreement to buy up to 50 million barrels of Venezuelan crude oil [8]. 3.3 Data Overview - Multiple data charts are presented, including global high - frequency crude oil inventory, EIA crude oil inventory, US crude oil production growth rate, WTI spot price, Dtd Brent price, Oman spot price, US gasoline consumption, and US diesel consumption, with data sources from Bloomberg, EIA, and Wind [11][12][17]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent suspension of domestic refined oil price adjustments in China due to insufficient changes in international oil prices, highlighting the impact of geopolitical tensions and market dynamics on oil supply and pricing [1][2]. Group 1: Oil Price Adjustment - The first adjustment window for domestic refined oil prices in 2026 was on January 6, but no changes were made as the price change per ton was less than 50 yuan compared to the previous period [1]. - The National Development and Reform Commission announced that the unadjusted amount will be carried over to the next price adjustment [1]. Group 2: Geopolitical Factors - Recent military actions by the U.S. against Venezuela have heightened geopolitical tensions, which may affect oil supply and investor sentiment despite Venezuela's small share in global oil production [1][2]. - Venezuela accounts for approximately 1% of global oil production and is a significant producer of heavy sour crude, which is in high demand for refining [2]. Group 3: OPEC+ Production Decisions - OPEC+ has decided to maintain its production plan established in November 2025, with no increase in output planned for February and March 2026, aiming to stabilize the oil market [2][3]. - From April to December 2025, OPEC+ members increased their production targets by about 2.9 million barrels per day, which is nearly 3% of global oil demand [3]. Group 4: Market Outlook - Analysts suggest that the global oil demand growth is insufficient, and with the expansion of U.S. shale oil production, there is a risk of oversupply, leading to potential downward pressure on oil prices [3]. - The next price adjustment window is set for January 20, with expectations of a possible increase in refined oil prices due to improved local demand and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties [3].

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No information provided on the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, oil prices remained volatile, with fluctuations during trading sessions due to news of potential Russia-Ukraine negotiations on Thursday and the suspension of oil exports from Russia's Novorossiysk port on Friday. The fundamentals maintain a pattern of oversupply and increased uncertainty regarding Russian sanctions. The US sanctions against Russia will take effect on November 21, and short - term statements from the US and Russia will influence market expectations. US EIA commercial crude oil inventories are increasing, while global oil inventories are slightly decreasing. Due to high gasoline and diesel profits, refinery operations in Europe and the US have recently recovered, but the maintenance rate of Middle - Eastern refineries remains relatively high. In the short term, disruptions at Russian ports support the Dubai monthly spread, but global supply pressure and OPEC's potential production increase plans limit the upside. In the short term, the monthly spread and absolute prices will remain volatile, and a short - selling strategy is recommended for the fourth quarter [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oil Price Data - From November 10 - 14, 2025, WTI crude oil prices increased by $1.40, BRENT by $1.38, and DUBAI by $0.73. The BRENT 2 - month spread increased by $0.10, and other related price differentials also showed corresponding changes [3]. - During the same period, SC - related prices and price differentials, domestic gasoline and diesel prices, and their differentials with BRT also changed. For example, the domestic gasoline price decreased by 30 yuan, and the domestic gasoline - BRT differential decreased by 109 yuan [3]. - Japanese naphtha, Singapore fuel oil, and related futures contract prices and their differentials with BRT also had certain fluctuations. For example, the Japanese naphtha - BRT differential decreased by $2.15 [3]. 3.2 Daily News - Russia's Novorossiysk port resumed oil loading operations after a two - day suspension due to a Ukrainian drone attack. The port's daily oil export volume of 2.2 million barrels was suspended on Friday, equivalent to 2% of global supply, and the attack pushed international oil prices up by over 2% [3]. - Ukraine claimed to have attacked a refinery in Russia's Samara Oblast and updated the results of an attack on the Ryazan refinery, but the involved enterprises did not comment [4]. - Russian President Putin had a conversation with Rosneft President Sechin. The US imposed sanctions on Russian oil companies last month [4]. 3.3 Inventory Data - According to the EIA report for the week of November 7, US crude oil exports decreased by 1.551 million barrels per day to 2.816 million barrels per day; domestic production increased by 211,000 barrels to 13.862 million barrels per day; commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) increased by 6.413 million barrels to 428 million barrels, a 1.52% increase; the four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 20.606 million barrels per day, a 0.95% decrease compared to the same period last year; strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventories increased by 798,000 barrels to 410.4 million barrels, a 0.19% increase; and commercial crude oil imports (excluding strategic reserves) were 5.222 million barrels per day, a decrease of 702,000 barrels per day compared to the previous week [5]. - As of the week of November 12, the total refined oil inventory at the Port of Fujairah in the UAE was 21.181 million barrels, an increase of 3.204 million barrels from the previous week [5]. - As of the week of November 8, Japan's commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 353,966 kiloliters to 10,379,001 kiloliters [5]. - The API crude oil inventory in the US for the week ending November 7 was 1.3 million barrels, compared with a previous value of 6.521 million barrels [5]. - From November 7 - 13, both gasoline and diesel inventories decreased. Gasoline inventory was 10.4149 million tons, a 1.52% decrease, and diesel inventory was 12.8156 million tons, a 0.63% decrease. The comprehensive refining profit of major refineries and local refineries rebounded [5].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core View - The absolute price of crude oil has fallen to $65 per barrel for Brent this week, and the monthly spreads of the three major crude oil markets have slightly declined. Geopolitical uncertainties have resurfaced due to the situation in Ukraine and Iran. Fundamentally, global oil inventories have increased this week, with a slight draw in US commercial crude oil and gasoline/diesel, a slight build in Singapore's light and medium - quality products, and a draw in European ARA region gasoline and a slight build in diesel. After the decline in crude oil prices, global refinery margins have rebounded on a weekly basis. The near - term crude oil fundamentals are volatile. Sanctions on Iran and Russia pose a risk of supply decline, OPEC+ crude oil exports are expected to accelerate, and refinery operations in the third quarter are expected to be stronger than anticipated, supporting the monthly spread levels. However, the peak of the global supply - demand fundamentals has passed. It is expected that the absolute price of crude oil will maintain a volatile pattern, and it is expected to fall to $55 - $60 per barrel in the fourth quarter. Attention should be paid to the impact of US tariff policies on the global economy and the non - OPEC production start - up rhythm [6]. 3. Summary by Section Daily News - Trump stated in a call with European leaders that the core goal of his meeting with Putin this week is to achieve a cease - fire in Ukraine, not to discuss territorial division. All leaders agree that Ukraine must participate in the negotiations throughout, and the decision on territorial concessions belongs solely to Ukraine. If Putin refuses to cease fire, Trump may impose new sanctions on Russia. US Treasury Secretary Besent said that sanctions can be escalated or relaxed and may have a schedule, and Europe needs to join these sanctions [3]. - Russia announced production cuts of 85,000 barrels per day from July to November and an additional 9,000 barrels per day in December. France, the UK, and Germany's foreign ministers said they will activate the sanctions "restoration mechanism" against Iran if a satisfactory solution is not found by the end of August. In July, Russia's seaborne oil product exports decreased by 6.6% month - on - month, and the idle refining capacity reached a peak for the year [3][4]. Regional Fundamentals - EIA reports show that in the week ending August 8, US crude oil exports increased by 259,000 barrels per day to 3.577 million barrels per day, domestic crude oil production increased by 43,000 barrels to 13.327 million barrels per day, commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) increased by 3.036 million barrels to 427 million barrels (a 0.72% increase), the four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 21.159 million barrels per day (a 2.89% increase compared to the same period last year), the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 226,000 barrels to 403.2 million barrels (a 0.06% increase), and crude oil imports (excluding strategic reserves) were 6.92 million barrels per day, an increase of 958,000 barrels per day from the previous week [5]. - From July 25 - 31, the operating rate of major refineries in China increased slightly, while that of Shandong local refineries remained basically flat. In China, refinery output showed a decline in gasoline and an increase in diesel, and inventories also showed a decline in gasoline and an increase in diesel. The comprehensive profit of major refineries rebounded on a weekly basis, while that of local refineries declined [5]. Weekly View - The absolute price of crude oil has fallen, and the monthly spreads have slightly declined. Geopolitical uncertainties have increased. Fundamentally, there are mixed inventory trends globally. Refinery margins have rebounded. The near - term fundamentals are volatile, and the absolute price is expected to be volatile and fall in the fourth quarter [6].

Core Viewpoint - ANZ analysts indicate that OPEC+ has a limited time window to increase oil supply due to weak demand growth and signs of slowing gasoline consumption in the U.S. [1] Group 1: OPEC+ Supply Increase - OPEC+ is expected to approve an increase of 500,000 barrels per day in September, completing the process of unwinding voluntary production cuts [1] - Current market inventories are in line with or slightly below levels from the same period last year, suggesting that the increase in supply should not pose immediate issues [1] Group 2: Future Supply and Demand Outlook - ANZ forecasts a significant increase in inventories later this year, estimating a surplus of 1.74 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter [1]

Core Viewpoint - The International Energy Agency (IEA) reports that global oil supply growth will outpace demand growth by three times this year, indicating a significant increase in oil supply due to external factors despite seasonal market tightness [1] Supply and Demand - IEA projects oil supply to increase by 2.1 million barrels per day (bpd) this year and 1.3 million bpd next year, revised upwards from previous estimates of 1.8 million bpd and 1.1 million bpd respectively [1] - The primary driver of this supply growth is attributed to countries outside the OPEC+ alliance, despite the recent large-scale production increase by OPEC+ [1] Market Dynamics - Seasonal factors are contributing to short-term market tightness, even as supply is expected to grow significantly [1] - Concerns over potential supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have led several Gulf oil-producing countries to increase exports during the ongoing conflict with Iran [1] Recent Developments - Last month, global oil supply surged by 950,000 bpd, with Saudi Arabia showing the largest increase in production [1]

Core Viewpoint - OPEC has lowered its supply growth expectations for the US and other competitors for next year while maintaining its demand outlook for oil unchanged [1] Group 1: Supply Expectations - OPEC expects the supply from non-OPEC+ oil-producing countries to decrease from 800,000 barrels per day to 730,000 barrels per day by 2026 [1] - US oil production is projected to increase by 210,000 barrels per day, down from a previous estimate of 280,000 barrels per day, reflecting a decline in capital expenditures and drilling activities [1] Group 2: Market Concerns - The market's primary concern is the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran, a critical shipping chokepoint through which about one-third of the world's oil passes [1] - Analysts suggest that any supply disruption could prompt OPEC+ to adjust its strategy to restore supply more quickly than anticipated [1] Group 3: OPEC's Current Position - OPEC appears to be in a wait-and-see mode and has not planned any special policy meetings despite having over 5 million barrels per day of idle production capacity [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - The prices of various energy - chemical products are expected to be volatile. Geopolitical easing and slowing demand growth have put pressure on oil prices, while other products are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships and cost changes [1][2] - For fuel oil, the high - sulfur market has strong demand support, and attention can be paid to the strategy of narrowing the LU - FU spread. For asphalt, although the price may be stable in the short term, the upward space is limited. For polyester, the PTA price may be weakly volatile, and the ethylene glycol price is strengthening. For rubber, it shows relative weakness. For methanol, the price will recover but still face upward pressure. For polyolefins and PVC, they will tend to be volatile [2][4][5][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, oil prices declined. WTI June contract fell $1.53 to $61.62 per barrel (down 2.42%), Brent July contract fell $1.56 to $64.53 per barrel (down 2.36%), and SC2506 closed at 461.6 yuan/barrel, down 16.9 yuan/barrel (down 3.53%). Optimistic progress in US - Iran negotiations and changes in supply - demand forecasts have led to downward pressure on oil prices [1] - **Fuel Oil**: On Thursday, the main fuel oil contracts declined. Singapore and Fujeirah fuel oil inventories decreased. Although the high - sulfur market has strong demand support, the low - sulfur has shown stronger performance recently. Consider a strategy of narrowing the LU - FU spread later [2] - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, the main asphalt contract fell 1.45% to 3466 yuan/ton. Supply is expected to increase, and the northern demand will slightly increase, while the southern demand is affected by rainfall. The price may be stable in the short term, but the upward space is limited [2] - **Polyester**: TA509 and EG2509 prices declined. PX prices also fell. PTA device restarts are increasing, and downstream high - start sustainability is weak. PTA prices may be weakly volatile, while ethylene glycol prices are strengthening [4] - **Rubber**: On Thursday, rubber - related contracts declined. Overseas production areas are affected by rainfall, and downstream tire factory starts have recovered, but natural rubber shows relative weakness [4] - **Methanol**: Supply is at a high level, and Iranian device loads have declined. MTO device maintenance has been implemented, and traditional downstream starts are relatively stable. The price will recover, but there is still upward pressure [5] - **Polyolefins**: The prices of polyolefins have increased. Refinery maintenance is increasing, and supply pressure has been released. After the price recovery, they will tend to be volatile due to the weakening of oil prices [5] - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: The prices in the PVC market have increased. Supply is at a high level, and domestic real - estate construction is temporarily stable, but the subsequent off - season is approaching. The upward space is limited [7] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides data on the spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and their changes for multiple energy - chemical products such as crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, etc. on May 15, 2025 [8] 3.3 Market News - On May 15, 2025, US President Trump said that Iran had agreed to some conditions of the nuclear - related agreement, and the US was in serious negotiations with Iran to achieve long - term peace. Iran is willing to make certain commitments in exchange for the lifting of economic sanctions [10] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) expects that this year's global oil supply will increase by 1.6 million barrels per day, an increase of 380,000 barrels per day compared to the previous forecast [10] 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report shows the closing price trends of main contracts for various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025 through multiple charts, including crude oil, fuel oil, etc [12][13][16] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: Multiple charts show the basis trends of main contracts for various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, etc [28][33][37] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report presents the spread trends of different contracts for various energy - chemical products through multiple charts, such as fuel oil, asphalt, etc [44][46][49] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: Multiple charts show the spread and ratio trends between different varieties of energy - chemical products, including crude oil internal - external spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, etc [60][61][66] - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report shows the production profit trends of ethylene - made ethylene glycol, PP, and LLDPE through charts [69][70][71] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The research team includes members such as Zhong Meiyan, Du Bingqin, Di Yilin, and Peng Haibo, each with rich experience and professional titles in different energy - chemical product research fields [76][77][78]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs expects OPEC+ to halt further oil production increases starting in August due to slowing economic activity and weak oil demand [1] Group 1: OPEC+ Production Decisions - OPEC is anticipated to make its "final" decision to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in July [1] - The expectation is that hard data will begin to weaken around late summer [1] Group 2: Oil Demand Projections - Global oil demand growth is projected to slow from 600,000 barrels per day in the first quarter to flat in the second quarter [1] Group 3: Production Outlook Risks - The production outlook remains skewed to the upside, particularly if compliance with production targets does not improve [1]