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非农就业数据大幅下修,经济衰退担忧加剧
Tong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-08-04 12:55
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Crude oil prices are likely to continue a high - level oscillation pattern in the short term, but the upside is limited. The actual supply increase is uncertain as OPEC+ production increase needs to observe the compliance of some countries, and the decline in US drilling rigs implies limited marginal shale oil increase. Geopolitical risks support prices, but the shift of buyers to other sources may ease some supply tensions [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Market Summary - **Crude Oil Futures Market Data**: On August 1, 2025, the price of the SC crude oil main contract slightly dropped to 527.9 yuan/barrel (-0.64% from the previous day), while WTI and Brent crude oil futures prices remained stable at $69.36/barrel and $71.78/barrel respectively. The SC - Brent spread significantly weakened to $1.43/barrel (previous value $2.08), a decline of 31.25%, and the SC - WTI spread also narrowed by $0.65 to $3.85/barrel. The SC continuous - consecutive 3 spread strengthened by 2.2 yuan to 11.6 yuan/barrel, indicating stronger support for near - month contracts [2]. Supply - Chain Supply, Demand, and Inventory Analysis - **Supply Side**: OPEC+ announced on August 3 that it will increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in September, marking the full exit from the largest - scale production cut plan since 2024. The US supply is expanding, with May's crude oil production reaching a record 13.49 million barrels per day and Texas production increasing to 5.752 million barrels per day. However, the number of US oil drilling rigs decreased by 5 to 410 in the week of August 1, suggesting a slowdown in short - term shale oil production growth. Geopolitical risks remain, such as the attack on a Russian refinery and the redirection of Russian oil tankers due to US sanctions [3]. - **Demand Side**: Demand shows structural differentiation. US petroleum product demand in May reached the highest point since January, and high refinery operating rates support short - term consumption. However, the expected year - on - year growth rate of the eurozone's CPI in July dropped to 1.9% (previous value 2.0%), and the risk of economic slowdown may suppress oil demand. Asian buyers may increase their dependence on Middle Eastern and North American crude oil, indirectly supporting Brent and WTI prices [3]. - **Inventory Side**: There is no latest data on US commercial crude oil and Cushing inventories, but EIA data shows that US crude oil and refined product supplies reached a new high in May. With the expected OPEC+ production increase, medium - and long - term inventory pressure may gradually accumulate [4]. Price Trend Judgment - Crude oil prices are expected to maintain a high - level oscillation in the short term, but the upside is restricted. The supply increase is questionable as the actual capacity release of OPEC+ needs to observe the compliance of some countries, and the decline in US drilling rigs implies limited marginal shale oil increase. Geopolitical risks support prices, but the shift of buyers to other sources may ease some supply tensions [5]. Supply - Chain Price Monitoring - **Crude Oil**: On August 1, 2025, SC crude oil futures price was 527.9 yuan/barrel, WTI was $67.26/barrel, and Brent was $69.52/barrel. The SC - Brent spread was $3.69/barrel, and the SC - WTI spread was $5.95/barrel. The US commercial crude oil inventory was 42,669,100 barrels, a 1.84% increase from the previous period. The US refinery weekly operating rate was 95.4%, a 0.1% decrease from the previous period [7]. - **Fuel Oil**: On August 1, 2025, the FU fuel oil futures price was 2,916 yuan/ton, and the LU was 3,645 yuan/ton. The Singapore fuel oil inventory was 24.668 million barrels, a 4.09% increase from the previous period [8]. Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - **Supply**: OPEC+ decided on August 3 to increase oil production by 547,000 - 548,000 barrels per day in September, marking the full exit from the largest - scale production cut plan. The number of US oil drilling rigs decreased to 410 in the week of August 1. US crude oil production in May reached a record high of 13.49 million barrels per day [9][10]. - **Demand**: Iran lifted flight restrictions on August 2, which may increase oil demand. The Ukrainian military attacked a Russian refinery, which may affect supply [11]. - **Inventory**: Fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged. The number of medium - sulfur crude oil futures warehouse receipts was 5,249,000 barrels, unchanged from the previous day. Russian export restrictions may lead to a tight global crude oil and refined product spot market [12]. - **Market Information**: On Monday, spot gold opened slightly higher, and WTI crude oil opened 0.5% lower. Speculators' net long positions in NYMEX WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil increased in the week of July 29. The eurozone's expected CPI year - on - year growth rate in July dropped to 1.9% [13]. Supply - Chain Data Charts The report provides multiple data charts, including the prices and spreads of WTI and Brent first - line contracts, the spread between SC and WTI, US crude oil weekly production, US and Canadian oil rig numbers, US refinery weekly operating rates, and various inventory data [16][18][22].
利空突袭!大跌!
券商中国· 2025-08-03 04:39
Core Viewpoint - OPEC+ has agreed to significantly increase oil production in September, with a planned daily increase of 548,000 barrels, reversing previous production cuts and potentially leading to a supply surplus by the end of the year [1][3][2]. Group 1: OPEC+ Production Increase - OPEC+ is set to approve a daily increase of 548,000 barrels in an upcoming meeting, marking a shift from previous production cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day [3]. - This decision is seen as a response to geopolitical tensions and aims to alleviate pressure on oil prices, benefiting consumers and aligning with U.S. President Trump's objectives [3][4]. - Analysts suggest that the market may face an oversupply situation later this year due to the increase in production and slowing global economic growth [2][5]. Group 2: Geopolitical Context - The timing of OPEC+'s decision coincides with U.S. President Trump's threats of secondary sanctions on Russian oil exports, aimed at influencing Russia's actions in Ukraine [4]. - Trump's potential sanctions could lead to higher international oil prices, conflicting with his goal of lowering U.S. gasoline prices [5]. - The geopolitical landscape remains uncertain, making it challenging to predict the next steps in the oil market [5]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Predictions - Analysts predict that Brent crude oil prices will stabilize around $70 per barrel following the OPEC+ decision, with expectations of a supply surplus beginning in October [3][5]. - The market is advised to monitor geopolitical developments, OPEC+ production policies, and global trade disputes for future price movements [6].
OPEC+或于今日批准9月大幅增产54.8万桶/日 提前一年终结220万桶减产协议
Huan Qiu Wang· 2025-08-03 01:52
Group 1 - OPEC+ plans to officially approve an increase of 548,000 barrels per day in September during an online meeting, reversing the voluntary production cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day implemented by key members like Saudi Arabia and Russia in November 2023 [1][3] - The increase in production is part of a phased plan to lift production cuts, with a cumulative increase of 2.47 million barrels per day since April, approaching 2.5% of global demand [3] - The decision to accelerate production exceeds market expectations, indicating OPEC+ is moving faster to regain market share and normalize idle capacity [3][4] Group 2 - The UAE has been vocal about its production quota being too low and has invested to increase its actual capacity to over 4 million barrels per day, with plans to raise its quota by 300,000 barrels per day by September [3] - The aggressive production increase by OPEC+ has put downward pressure on international oil prices, with Brent crude futures falling over 15% since April [4] - OPEC+ aims to fully restore production levels by September 2025, but uncertainties remain regarding the release of remaining idle capacity [4][5]
大越期货原油早报-20250723
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-07-23 03:20
Group 1: Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Overnight crude oil oscillated at a low level. With Trump's official announcement of the US - Japan trade agreement this morning, the overall financial market sentiment warmed up, and oil prices recovered to some extent. The decline in API crude oil inventory was small, while the refined oil inventory in the downstream increased significantly, which put some pressure on the optimistic demand during the subsequent summer peak season. Short - term oil prices will continue to oscillate. The short - term trading range is between 502 - 510, and long - term investors should wait and see [3]. - The short - term geopolitical conflicts drive up the market, and in the medium - to - long - term, it awaits the summer demand peak season [6]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - For crude oil 2509, the fundamentals, basis, inventory, and other factors are all neutral. The short - term trading range is between 502 - 510, and long - term investors should wait and see [3]. 2. Recent News - Trump announced a trade agreement with Japan, under which Japan will invest $550 billion in the US and pay a 15% reciprocal tariff. The details of the agreement, especially regarding whether Japanese automobiles and parts will be exempted from the 25% tariff, have not been fully disclosed. Japan's government officials said that Japan and the US have agreed to reduce the automobile tariff to 15% [5]. - The Canadian Prime Minister tried to lower the outside world's expectations of reaching a trade agreement with the US in the next 10 days, saying that the negotiation was difficult due to the US government's changing goals. Trump has threatened to impose a 35% tariff on Canadian goods not covered by the US - Mexico - Canada Agreement if an agreement is not reached by August 1st [5]. - API data showed that for the week ending July 18th, US crude oil inventory decreased by 577,000 barrels, Cushing crude oil inventory increased by 314,000 barrels, gasoline inventory decreased by 1.228 million barrels, and distillate oil inventory increased by 3.48 million barrels [5]. 3. Long - Short Focus - **Likely to Rise**: The short - term geopolitical conflicts intensify, and the summer demand begins to increase [6]. - **Likely to Fall**: OPEC+ has increased production for three consecutive months, the trade relations between the US and other economies remain tense, and Iran and Israel have ceased fire [6]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: Compared with the previous value, the settlement prices of Brent crude, WTI crude, SC crude, and Oman crude all decreased, with declines of - 0.90%, - 0.97%, - 1.69%, and - 0.39% respectively [7]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices of British Brent, WTI, Oman crude, Shengli crude, and Dubai crude all decreased compared with the previous value, with declines of - 0.79%, - 2.81%, - 0.17%, - 0.58%, and - 0.38% respectively [9]. - **Inventory Data**: API and EIA inventory data show the changes in US crude oil inventory over time. As of July 18th, API crude oil inventory decreased by 577,000 barrels; as of July 11th, EIA inventory decreased by 3.859 million barrels [10][12]. 5. Position Data - As of July 15th, the net long positions of WTI crude oil decreased, and the net long positions of Brent crude oil increased [3]. - The data on the net long positions of WTI and Brent crude oil funds show their changes over time [14][17].
OPEC+全力增产 油价易跌难涨?
Qi Huo Ri Bao· 2025-07-07 00:20
Core Viewpoint - The recent de-escalation of the Israel-Iran conflict has led to a significant decline in oil prices, with SC crude oil futures dropping nearly 15% from their June highs, as geopolitical risk premiums have been rapidly eliminated [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The primary reason for the decline in oil prices is attributed to global trade tensions and increased production by OPEC+, resulting in a more relaxed supply-demand balance, with seasonal demand already priced in [1][2]. - OPEC+ decided to increase oil production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, driven by low global oil inventories, which have remained relatively low since 2020 [1][2]. - The ongoing restructuring of global trade routes and regional disparities in oil inventories have contributed to lower stock levels in key delivery hubs [1][2]. Group 2: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that as geopolitical tensions ease, the market will refocus on fundamental factors, with OPEC+ members like Saudi Arabia, Iraq, UAE, and Kazakhstan accelerating production [3][4]. - In the absence of significant demand growth, the increased supply from OPEC+ is expected to exert downward pressure on oil prices, with potential for Brent and WTI crude futures to break above $80 per barrel, while SC crude may exceed 580 yuan per barrel [3][4]. - The market is likely to experience substantial inventory accumulation in the third and fourth quarters, with a prevailing narrative of "weak demand + oversupply" shaping oil pricing for the latter half of the year [4].
建信期货原油日报-20250704
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-04 03:22
Report Overview - Report Title: Crude Oil Daily Report - Report Date: July 4, 2025 - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team of Jianxin Futures 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report 2. Core View - Due to the possible resumption of Israeli attacks on Iran, oil prices rose again. EIA data showed that as of the week ending on the 27th, US crude oil and gasoline inventories both increased more than expected, while diesel inventories continued to decline. In the supply side, most of the 8 OPEC member countries achieved the planned production increase in the first month of the expanded production increase. Considering Trump's concerns about high oil prices, there is a possibility that OPEC+ will further increase production. In the demand side, the expectation of crude oil demand has improved due to the suspension of the Sino-US tariff conflict, but the adjustment of the balance sheet is limited because of the expected supply growth in countries like Brazil and Guyana. The market will maintain a pattern of inventory accumulation in the second half of the year. Oil prices are gradually returning to fundamental-driven, and are expected to fluctuate in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [6][7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Data**: WTI crude oil futures rose 3.18% to close at $67.45 per barrel, with a trading volume of 24.54 million lots; Brent crude oil futures rose 3.04% to close at $69.15 per barrel, with a trading volume of 38.45 million lots; SC crude oil futures rose 1.56% to close at 506.3 yuan per barrel, with a trading volume of 17.94 million lots [6]. - **Supply and Demand Analysis**: OPEC member countries basically completed the planned production increase in the first month of the expanded production increase. Trump's concerns about high oil prices may lead to a further increase in OPEC+ production. The expectation of crude oil demand has improved due to the suspension of the Sino-US tariff conflict, but the market will still maintain a pattern of inventory accumulation in the second half of the year because of the expected supply growth in other countries [7]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Oil prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [7]. 3.2 Industry News - Indonesia plans to increase its daily crude oil production to 1 million barrels. - Last week, US imports of crude oil from Nigeria reached the highest level since August 2019. - In June, the production of 12 OPEC member countries increased by 360,000 barrels per day to an average of 28 million barrels per day, with about two-thirds of the increase contributed by Saudi Arabia [8]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides data on global high-frequency crude oil inventories, WTI and Brent fund positions, and spot prices, with data sources including CFTC, Wind, and Bloomberg [10][11][18]
建信期货原油日报-20250703
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-03 01:28
Group 1: General Information - Report date: July 3, 2025 [2] - Report type: Crude Oil Daily [1] Group 2: Market Review and Operational Suggestions - **Market performance**: WTI's opening price was $64.96, closing at $65.53, with a high of $65.98, a low of $64.67, a daily increase of 0.65%, and trading volume of 17.29 million lots; Brent's opening price was $66.58, closing at $67.28, with a high of $67.50, a low of $66.34, a daily increase of 0.81%, and trading volume of 27 million lots; SC's opening price was 503.1 yuan/barrel, closing at 498.2 yuan/barrel, with a high of 503.8 yuan/barrel, a low of 495.6 yuan/barrel, a daily increase of 0.24%, and trading volume of 13.75 million lots [6] - **Supply - demand analysis**: In the supply side, in the first month of OPEC's increased production, 8 member countries basically achieved the planned increase. There's a possibility of OPEC+ further increasing production. In the demand side, due to the suspension of China - US tariff disputes, crude oil demand expectations improved, but considering the supply growth in countries like Brazil and Guyana, the market will maintain a pattern of inventory accumulation in the second half of the year [7] - **Operational suggestion**: Oil prices are gradually returning to fundamental - driven, and in the short - term, they are expected to fluctuate. It's advisable to wait and see [7] Group 3: Industry News - Goldman Sachs believes that if OPEC+ decides to increase production on Sunday, the market may not have a significant reaction as market expectations have shifted towards this outcome [8] - Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports in June increased by 450,000 barrels per day month - on - month to 6.33 million barrels per day, reaching the highest level in over a year [8] - Kazakhstan's crude oil production in June increased by 7.5% month - on - month to 1.88 million barrels per day, hitting a historical high. Its first - half production increased by 13% year - on - year to 1.79 million barrels per day [8] Group 4: Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including global high - frequency crude oil inventory, WTI and Brent fund positions, and various oil price charts [10][11][18]
大越期货原油早报-20250702
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-07-02 01:49
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The market is concerned about OPEC+ potentially announcing a daily production increase of 411,000 barrels in August at the July 6 meeting, but the improvement in demand prospects from trade agreements partially offsets this impact. Saudi Arabia is exporting crude at the fastest pace in over a year, and the potential for continued production increases is pressuring oil prices upward. Geopolitical concerns from the Houthi attacks on Israel provide some premium. Currently, the crude oil market lacks directional events, and it is expected to remain range - bound in the short - term, with prices moving between 495 - 503. Long - term investment should be on hold [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - For crude oil 2508, the fundamentals are neutral; the basis shows that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price, which is bullish; inventory data is bearish; the 20 - day moving average is flat with the price below it, which is neutral; as of June 24, the WTI and Brent crude oil main positions are long, with WTI long positions increasing and Brent long positions decreasing, which is neutral. Short - term prices are expected to range between 495 - 503, and long - term investment should be on hold [3]. 3.2 Recent News - Trump said the US may reach a trade agreement with India and is skeptical about a deal with Japan. US Treasury Secretary believes China will speed up the export of rare earth minerals and magnets. - Fed Chairman Powell said the Fed will "wait and learn more" about the impact of tariffs on inflation before cutting interest rates, ignoring Trump's call for an immediate and significant rate cut. He did not rule out a rate cut at the July 29 - 30 meeting. Trump said he has two or three candidates to replace Powell. - Trump said Israel has agreed to the conditions for a 60 - day cease - fire in Gaza, and the plan will be submitted to Hamas. Qatar and Egypt will be responsible for presenting the final proposal [5]. 3.3 Long - Short Focus - Bullish factors: The intensification of the Russia - Ukraine conflict. - Bearish factors: OPEC+ has increased production for three consecutive months; the US has ongoing tense trade relations with other economies; Iran and Israel have reached a cease - fire. - Market drivers: Short - term geopolitical conflicts drive up prices, and in the medium - to - long - term, the market awaits the peak summer demand season [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Futures Quotes**: The settlement prices of Brent crude, WTI crude, SC crude, and Oman crude have changed. Brent crude increased by 0.37 to 67.11 (0.55% increase), WTI crude increased by 0.34 to 65.45 (0.52% increase), SC crude increased by 0.90 to 497.0 (0.18% increase), and Oman crude decreased by 0.39 to 68.22 (- 0.57% decrease) [7]. - **Spot Quotes**: The prices of UK Brent Dtd, WTI, Oman crude, Shengli crude, and Dubai crude have changed. UK Brent Dtd increased by 0.33 to 68.78 (0.48% increase), WTI increased by 0.34 to 65.45 (0.52% increase), Oman crude decreased by 0.86 to 68.45 (- 1.24% decrease), Shengli crude decreased by 1.22 to 65.38 (- 1.83% decrease), and Dubai crude decreased by 0.55 to 68.32 (- 0.80% decrease) [9]. - **Inventory Data**: US API crude inventory as of June 28 increased by 680,000 barrels, contrary to the expected decrease of 2.257 million barrels. US EIA inventory as of June 20 decreased by 5.836 million barrels, more than the expected decrease of 797,000 barrels. Cushing area inventory as of June 20 decreased by 464,000 barrels. As of July 1, the Shanghai crude oil futures inventory was 5.911 million barrels, unchanged [3]. 3.5 Position Data - As of June 24, the net long position of WTI crude oil funds was 232,969, an increase of 1,921. The net long position of Brent crude oil funds was 192,598, a decrease of 80,577 [15][17].
大越期货原油早报-20250625
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-06-25 09:45
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The ceasefire between Iran and Israel has led to a significant reduction in geopolitical concerns, causing oil prices to largely give back all war premiums and return to the fundamentals. The substantial drawdown in US API crude oil inventories indicates an optimistic performance during the summer consumption peak season. The market will focus on the supply side, as Kazakhstan has stated that it has no plan to cut production, which will test the implementation of OPEC+. In the short term, oil prices will fluctuate at a low level, with a short - term trading range of 505 - 520, and a long - term wait - and - see approach is recommended [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - For crude oil 2508, the fundamentals are neutral as the US air strike only delayed Iran's nuclear capacity by a few months, a ceasefire between Israel and Iran has taken effect, Kazakhstan has no plan to cut production, and the Fed may consider interest rate cuts due to potential inflation from tariff hikes. The basis is neutral with spot at par with futures. Inventory data is bullish, with significant draws in US API and EIA inventories. The market trend is bullish as the price is above the 20 - day moving average. The main positions are bullish as both WTI and Brent crude oil main positions show an increase in long positions. It is expected that oil prices will fluctuate at a low level in the short term, with a trading range of 505 - 520, and a long - term wait - and - see approach is recommended [3]. 2. Recent News - On Tuesday, June 24, after a phone call between Trump and Netanyahu, Israel stopped further military strikes on Iran, and Iran is ready to talk. The US air strike on Iran's nuclear facilities only set back the nuclear program by a few months. Fed Chairman Powell said that tariff hikes this summer may push up inflation, which is a key period for the Fed to consider interest rate cuts, but he is not in a hurry to cut rates. The EU is preparing more tariff counter - measures against the US before the July 9 trade negotiation deadline, and Germany will support tougher measures against the US [5]. 3. Long - Short Concerns - Bullish factors include the intensification of the Russia - Ukraine conflict. Bearish factors include OPEC+ increasing production for three consecutive months, the continuous tension in US trade relations with other economies, and the ceasefire between Iran and Israel. The short - term market is driven by geopolitical conflicts, and the medium - to - long - term market awaits the summer demand peak season [6]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: The settlement prices of Brent crude, WTI crude, SC crude, and Oman crude all declined, with decreases of - 6.17%, - 6.04%, - 2.86%, and - 9.22% respectively [7]. - **Spot Market**: The prices of UK Brent Dtd, WTI, Oman crude, Shengli crude, and Dubai crude all decreased, with decreases of - 11.02%, - 6.04%, - 9.42%, - 8.81%, and - 8.95% respectively [9]. - **Inventory Data**: US API crude oil inventories decreased by 427.7 million barrels in the week ending June 20, and EIA inventories decreased by 1147.3 million barrels in the week ending June 13. Cushing region inventories decreased by 99.5 million barrels in the week ending June 13. As of June 24, the Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained unchanged at 402.9 million barrels [3]. 5. Position Data - As of June 17, the net long positions of WTI and Brent crude oil funds increased, with the net long position of WTI crude oil funds increasing by 39,107 to 231,048, and the net long position of Brent crude oil funds increasing by 76,253 to 273,175 [3][17][19].
大越期货原油早报-20250609
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-06-09 03:47
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - The Sino-US trade negotiation is still progressing, and the market risk preference is positive. The new non-farm payrolls in the US in May were slightly better than expected, but the data for the previous two months were significantly revised downward, reducing the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut. However, Trump is still pressuring the Fed. In the short term, there is a slight support from the macro level. The unexpected significant decline of 19 units in the US weekly rig data has led to the expectation of a possible decline in US production, pushing up oil prices to some extent, with the possibility of breaking through the upper resistance level. Investors should pay attention to position control. The short-term price range is 470 - 480, and long-term investors can hold long positions with a light position [3]. Summary Based on the Table of Contents 1. Daily Prompt - For crude oil 2507, the fundamentals are neutral due to factors such as the upcoming Sino-US high - level talks, US employment data, and US sanctions against Iran - related entities. The basis shows that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price, which is bullish. US API and EIA inventories decreased more than expected, but Cushing area inventory increased, and Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained unchanged, overall being bullish. The 20 - day moving average is flat with the price above it, which is neutral. The main positions of WTI and Brent crude oil are long and increasing, which is bullish [3]. 2. Recent News - Oil prices are affected by tariff negotiation news, trade uncertainty, and data on the impact of US taxation on the global economy. The fuel market is relatively strong, and the supply - surplus situation has not been reflected in inventory data. The futures market is in a state of backwardation in the near future and will turn to contango from May 2026. The potential risks of increased US sanctions on Venezuela and Israeli attacks on Iranian infrastructure increase the upside risk of oil prices, while weakening oil demand and OPEC+ and non - OPEC production increases will add downward pressure on oil prices in the future. Saudi Arabia has lowered the crude oil price for Asia in July, and the market is expected to balance in Q2 and Q3 and have a larger surplus in Q4 2025. The number of US oil and gas rigs has declined for six consecutive weeks [5]. 3. Long - Short Concerns - Bullish factors include the approaching breakdown of US - Iran negotiations and the intensification of the Russia - Ukraine conflict. Bearish factors include OPEC+ increasing production for three consecutive months and the continuous tension in US trade relations with other economies. The short - term price is driven by geopolitical conflicts, and in the long - term, it awaits the peak summer demand season [6]. 4. Fundamental Data - Futures prices of Brent, WTI, SC, and Oman crude oil all increased, with increases of 1.73%, 1.91%, 0.69%, and 0.42% respectively. Spot prices of various types of crude oil also generally increased, with Brent Dtd, WTI, Oman, Victory, and Dubai crude oil increasing by 1.61%, 1.91%, 0.78%, 0.13%, and 0.50% respectively. API and EIA inventories decreased in the week ending May 30, with API inventories decreasing by 3300000 barrels and EIA inventories decreasing by 4304000 barrels [7][9][10][15]. 5. Position Data - As of June 3, the net long positions of WTI and Brent crude oil funds increased. The net long position of WTI crude oil funds increased by 2263 to 167957, and the net long position of Brent crude oil funds increased by 8813 to 167763 [18][21].