Investment Rating - The investment rating for Chow Tai Fook (1929.HK) is "Hold" based on the current performance and market conditions [1]. Core Insights - Chow Tai Fook's FY26Q1 retail value decreased by 1.9% year-on-year, with mainland China and Hong Kong/Macau retail values changing by -3.3% and +7.8% respectively [1]. - The same-store sales in mainland China fell by 3.3%, while Hong Kong and Macau saw an increase of 2.2% [1]. - The company is experiencing a recovery in same-store sales, particularly in the franchise segment, which performed better than direct stores [2]. - E-commerce sales showed significant growth, increasing by 27% and accounting for 7.6% of mainland China's retail value [2]. - The company closed 307 stores in FY26Q1, accelerating channel adjustments, with a total of 6,337 stores as of June 30, 2025 [3]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for Chow Tai Fook are estimated at HKD 91.5 billion, 95.1 billion, and 99.8 billion for FY26, FY27, and FY28 respectively, reflecting growth rates of 2%, 4%, and 5% [3][5]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be HKD 8.06 billion, 8.61 billion, and 9.31 billion for FY26, FY27, and FY28, with year-on-year growth rates of 36%, 7%, and 8% [3][5]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios based on the closing price on July 22, 2025, are projected to be 17, 16, and 15 for FY26, FY27, and FY28 respectively [3][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" rating for MINISO (09896.HK) [4][10] Core Views - MINISO's domestic same-store sales are showing improvement, and direct store revenue is growing rapidly. The company reported Q1 2025 revenue of 4.427 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.9%, while adjusted net profit was 588 million yuan, a decrease of 4.8% year-on-year [4][6][10] Summary by Sections Market Performance - As of May 23, 2025, the closing price was HKD 42.25, with a year-to-date high of HKD 55.00 and a low of HKD 20.00. The total market capitalization was HKD 52.869 billion [3]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, MINISO achieved revenue of 4.427 billion yuan, up 18.9% year-on-year, with an average store count increase of 16.5% [6]. The adjusted net profit was 588 million yuan, down 4.8% year-on-year, primarily due to increased sales and distribution expenses [6][8]. Business Segments - Domestic revenue for MINISO China in Q1 2025 was 2.494 billion yuan, a 9.1% increase year-on-year, while overseas revenue reached 1.592 billion yuan, a 30.3% increase year-on-year. The average store count in overseas markets grew by 24.6% [7][10]. Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 44.2%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points year-on-year. The sales and distribution expense ratio rose to 23.1%, up 4.4 percentage points year-on-year, due to direct investments in overseas stores [8][10]. Future Outlook - The report forecasts revenues of 20.971 billion yuan, 25.331 billion yuan, and 30.011 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 2.862 billion yuan, 3.482 billion yuan, and 4.119 billion yuan [10][12]. The projected P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 17.0, 13.9, and 11.8, respectively [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" rating for MINISO (09896.HK) [2] Core Insights - MINISO's domestic same-store sales are showing improvement, and direct store revenue is growing rapidly. The company achieved a revenue of 4.427 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 18.9%, although adjusted net profit decreased by 4.8% [5][7][11] - The company is focusing on optimizing low-efficiency stores while emphasizing the establishment of flagship stores and IP Land stores to enhance brand strength [8] - The overseas market continues to expand rapidly, with a revenue of 1.592 billion yuan in Q1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 30.3% [8] Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, MINISO's revenue growth exceeded market expectations, driven by a 16.5% year-on-year increase in average store count. The adjusted net profit was 588 million yuan, down 4.8% year-on-year due to rising sales and distribution expenses [7][9] - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 44.2%, up 0.8 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to a higher proportion of high-margin overseas direct sales and an optimized product mix [9] - The sales and distribution expense ratio increased to 23.1%, up 4.4 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to direct investments in overseas stores [9] Future Outlook - For the years 2025 to 2027, the projected revenues are 20.971 billion yuan, 25.331 billion yuan, and 30.011 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 2.862 billion yuan, 3.482 billion yuan, and 4.119 billion yuan [11][13] - The report anticipates a continued recovery in domestic same-store sales and improvement in sales performance, particularly in overseas markets like Mexico and the United States [11]

Core Insights - Target's Q1 net sales reached $23.85 billion [1] - Adjusted earnings per share for Q1 were $1.30, below the estimated $1.66 [2] - Same-store sales declined by 3.8%, compared to an expected decline of 1.94% [2] - Q1 EBITDA was $2.29 billion, exceeding the forecast of $1.84 billion [3] - Target revised its full-year adjusted earnings per share guidance to $7-$9, down from the previous estimate of $8.80-$9.80, while market expectations were at $8.43 [3] - Target's stock rose nearly 2% in pre-market trading [3]

Group 1 - The company's same-store sales declined by 1.7%, which was better than the market expectation of a 2.04% decline [1] - The first quarter net sales amounted to $20.93 billion, representing a year-over-year increase of 2%, aligning with market expectations [2] - The operating margin for the first quarter was 11.9%, down from 12.4% in the same period last year [2] Group 2 - The company forecasts a 1% growth in same-store sales for the full year, an improvement from the previous estimate of 0% to 1%, while the market expected a growth of 0.56% [3] - The company maintains its full-year capital expenditure forecast at approximately $2.5 billion, consistent with market expectations [3] - The projected earnings per share for the full year is estimated to be between $12.15 and $12.40 [3] Group 3 - The company's stock rose over 3% in pre-market trading [4]

Core Insights - Yum Brands reported $1.79 billion in revenue for Q1 2025, an 11.8% year-over-year increase, with EPS of $1.30 compared to $1.15 a year ago [1] - The revenue fell short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.84 billion by 2.76%, while the EPS exceeded the consensus estimate of $1.29 by 0.78% [1] Financial Performance Metrics - System same-store sales for Pizza Hut Division decreased by 2% compared to an estimated increase of 1.4% [4] - Taco Bell Division saw a 9% increase in same-store sales, surpassing the estimated 7.4% [4] - KFC Division reported a 2% increase in same-store sales, slightly above the estimated 1.6% [4] - Total restaurants for Taco Bell Division were 8,723, below the average estimate of 8,794 [4] Revenue Breakdown - Company sales for Taco Bell Division were $607 million, below the average estimate of $640.81 million, but represented a year-over-year increase of 28.1% [4] - Franchise contributions for advertising and other services amounted to $395 million, slightly above the average estimate of $394.76 million, with a year-over-year change of 7.6% [4] - Franchise and property revenues totaled $785 million, below the average estimate of $805.21 million, reflecting a 3.7% year-over-year increase [4] - Habit Burger Grill Division company sales were $125 million, below the average estimate of $134.02 million [4] - Taco Bell Division franchise and property revenues reached $234 million, exceeding the estimated $229.75 million, with an 11.4% year-over-year increase [4] - Pizza Hut Division franchise and property revenues were $143 million, below the average estimate of $151.72 million, representing a 3.4% year-over-year decline [4] - KFC Division franchise and property revenues totaled $407 million, slightly below the average estimate of $416.53 million, with a 2.5% year-over-year increase [4] - Taco Bell Division franchise contributions for advertising and other services were $160 million, slightly below the average estimate of $162.24 million, with an 8.1% year-over-year increase [4] Stock Performance - Yum Brands shares have returned -7.1% over the past month, compared to a -0.2% change in the Zacks S&P 500 composite [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating potential performance in line with the broader market in the near term [3]

海外公司跟踪报告 | 非必需性消费 证券研究报告 分析师：宋健 S0190518010002 BMV912 songjian@xyzq.com.cn 分析师：严宁馨 | 报告日期 | 2025 年 02 月 17 日 | | --- | --- | | 公司评级 | 增持（维持） | 基础数据 | 2 月 14 日收盘价（美元） | 308.55 | | --- | --- | | 总市值（亿美元） | 2211 | | 总股本（亿股） | 7.17 | 来源：Wind，兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理 相关研究 【兴证海外社服】麦当劳 (MCD.N)2024Q3 业绩点评：Q3 美国同 店销售同比增速转正-2024.11.15 【兴证海外社服】麦当劳 (MCD.N)2024Q2 业绩点评：Q2 业绩低 于预期，低价套餐提振销售-2024.08.06 S0190521010001 请注意: 严宁馨并非香港证券及期货事务 监察委员会的注册持牌人，不可在香港从 事受监管的活动。 yanningxin@xyzq.com.cn 麦当劳(MCD.N) 2024Q4 同店表现改善明显，全球同店销售同比转正 投资要点： 请阅读 ...