Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The issuance and net financing of local government bonds decreased both in the current period and are expected to decline in the next period. The current issuance and net financing are 825.28 billion yuan and 386.37 billion yuan respectively, and the next period's expected issuance and net financing are 323.01 billion yuan and -197.81 billion yuan respectively [3]. - The issuance progress of new local government bonds has slowed down, and the cumulative issuance progress is lower than that of the same period in 2023 and 2024. As of October 10, 2025, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds and new special bonds accounted for 83.9% and 83.0% of the annual quota respectively [3]. - The planned issuance scale of local government bonds from October to November 2025 is 892.1 billion yuan, including 500.9 billion yuan of new special bonds [3]. - The yield spread between 10Y local government bonds and treasury bonds widened, while the spread for 30Y local government bonds narrowed. The weekly turnover rate decreased compared to the previous period [3]. - The cost - effectiveness of exploring the yield spread between local government bonds and treasury bonds has increased, and 10Y local government bonds are more cost - effective [3]. Summary According to the Directory 1. The issuance volume of local government bonds decreased in the current period, and the weighted issuance term shortened - The current issuance of local government bonds totaled 825.28 billion yuan (compared to 1960.51 billion yuan in the previous period), and the next - period forecast issuance is 323.01 billion yuan [3][10]. - The weighted issuance term of local government bonds in the current period is 12.93 years, significantly shorter than the 19.81 years in the previous period [3][12]. - As of October 10, 2025, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds and new special bonds accounted for 83.9% and 83.0% of the annual quota respectively. Considering the next - period forecast issuance, they are 83.9% and 83.4% respectively [3][13][17]. - As of October 10, 2025, the cumulative issuance of special new special bonds is 1202.9 billion yuan (1.7 billion yuan was issued in the current period), and the cumulative issuance of replacement hidden - debt special refinancing bonds is 1986.2 billion yuan (0 billion yuan was issued in the current period), with an issuance progress of 99.3% [3]. 2. The yield spread between local government bonds and treasury bonds in the current period widened for 10Y and narrowed for 30Y, and the weekly turnover rate decreased - As of October 10, 2025, the yield spreads between 10 - year and 30 - year local government bonds and treasury bonds are 25.40BP and 15.71BP respectively, widening by 3.08BP and narrowing by 2.59BP compared to September 26, 2025 [3][27][32]. - The weekly turnover rate of local government bonds in the current period is 0.35%, a decrease compared to 0.89% in the previous period [3][40]. - The yield and liquidity of 7 - 10Y local government bonds in regions such as Jilin, Tianjin, and Sichuan are better than the national average [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The issuance and net financing of local government bonds increased on a week - on - week basis this period, and are expected to decline during the National Day holiday next period. As of September 26, 2025, the cumulative issuance progress of new general bonds and new special bonds is lower than that of 2024, with the progress of new general bonds higher but that of new special bonds lower than that of 2023 [2]. - The planned issuance scale of local government bonds from October to November 2025 is 840 billion yuan, including 485.8 billion yuan of new special bonds. As of September 26, 2025, 25 regions have disclosed this information [2]. - This period saw the issuance of 50.6 billion yuan of special new special bonds and 11.4 billion yuan of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts. As of September 26, 2025, the cumulative issuance of special new special bonds reached 1,201.2 billion yuan, and that of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts reached 1,986.2 billion yuan, with an issuance progress of 99.3% [2]. - The spread between 10 - year and 30 - year local government bonds and treasury bonds widened this period, and the weekly turnover rate increased on a week - on - week basis. As of September 26, 2025, the spreads were 22.32BP and 18.30BP respectively, up 6.21BP and 1.26BP from September 19, 2025. The weekly turnover rate of local government bonds was 1.26%, up from 0.87% in the previous period [2]. - The cost - effectiveness of exploring the spread between local government bonds and treasury bonds has improved [2]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 This Period: Local Government Bond Issuance Increased, and the Weighted Issuance Term Lengthened - The total issuance of local government bonds this period (September 22 - 28, 2025) was 196.051 billion yuan (188.519 billion yuan in the previous period), and the expected issuance next period (September 29 - October 3, 2025) is 107.153 billion yuan. The weighted issuance term of local government bonds this period was 19.81 years, longer than 15.89 years in the previous period [2][9][11]. - As of September 26, 2025, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds and new special bonds accounted for 82.7% and 82.6% of the annual quota respectively, and 83.9% and 83.8% considering the expected issuance next period. The cumulative issuance progress in 2024 was 82.1%/85.0% and 84.4%/89.8%, and in 2023 was 89.6%/84.7% and 90.1%/87.0% [2][12][16]. - As of September 26, 2025, 25 regions have disclosed that the planned issuance scale of local government bonds from October to November 2025 is 840 billion yuan (540.6 billion yuan in October and 299.4 billion yuan in November), including 485.8 billion yuan of new special bonds (367.8 billion yuan in October and 118 billion yuan in November) [2][22][23]. - As of September 26, 2025, the cumulative issuance of special new special bonds reached 1,201.2 billion yuan (50.6 billion yuan issued this period); the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts reached 1,986.2 billion yuan (11.4 billion yuan issued this period), with an issuance progress of 99.3%, and 31 regions such as Zhejiang have completed the issuance [2][20]. 3.2 This Period: The Spread between 10 - year and 30 - year Local Government Bonds and Treasury Bonds Widened, and the Weekly Turnover Rate Increased on a Week - on - Week Basis - As of September 26, 2025, the spreads between 10 - year and 30 - year local government bonds and treasury bonds were 22.32BP and 18.30BP respectively, up 6.21BP and 1.26BP from September 19, 2025, and were at the 67.90% and 72.00% historical quantiles since 2023 [2][26][31]. - The weekly turnover rate of local government bonds this period was 1.26%, up from 0.87% in the previous period. The yields and liquidity of 7 - 10 - year local government bonds in regions such as Yunnan, Guizhou, and Shandong were better than the national average [2][38]. - Taking the 10 - year local government bond as an observation anchor, since 2018, the upper limit of the spread adjustment may be 20 - 25BP above the lower limit of the issuance spread, and the lower limit may be near the lower limit of the issuance spread. Currently, the upper limit of the spread between local government bonds and treasury bonds may be around 30 - 35BP, and the lower limit may be around 5 - 10BP [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given documents. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The issuance and net financing of local government bonds decreased significantly on a week - on - week basis this period, and it is expected to increase on a week - on - week basis in the next period. The total issuance/net financing of local government bonds in this period (2025.9.15 - 2025.9.21) was 188.519 billion yuan/30.855 billion yuan (the previous period was 301.672 billion yuan/192.779 billion yuan), and it is expected to be 196.051 billion yuan/122.461 billion yuan in the next period (2025.9.22 - 2025.9.28) [3]. - The cumulative issuance progress of new local government bonds is higher than that of the same period in 2024 but lower than that of the same period in 2023. As of September 19, 2025, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds/new special bonds accounted for 82.0% and 79.2% of the annual quota respectively, and it will be 82.7% and 82.6% considering the expected issuance in the next period [3]. - The planned issuance scale of local government bonds from September to October 2025 is 1.1384 trillion yuan, of which new special bonds account for 668.8 billion yuan [3]. - The spreads between 10 - year and 30 - year local government bonds and treasury bonds narrowed this period, and the weekly turnover rate increased on a week - on - week basis. As of September 19, 2025, the spreads between 10 - year and 30 - year local government bonds and treasury bonds were 16.11BP and 17.04BP respectively, narrowing by 3.19BP and 0.56BP compared to September 12, 2025 [3]. - Currently, the cost - effectiveness of exploring the spreads between local government bonds and treasury bonds is not high [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 This period, the issuance volume of local government bonds decreased, and the weighted issuance term shortened - The total issuance/net financing of local government bonds in this period (2025.9.15 - 2025.9.21) was 188.519 billion yuan/30.855 billion yuan, compared with 301.672 billion yuan/192.779 billion yuan in the previous period. The weighted issuance term of local government bonds in this period was 15.89 years, shorter than 17.84 years in the previous period [3]. - As of September 19, 2025, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds/new special bonds accounted for 82.0% and 79.2% of the annual quota respectively, and it will be 82.7% and 82.6% considering the expected issuance in the next period. In 2024, the cumulative issuance progress was 77.1%/71.7% and 82.1%/85.0% respectively, and in 2023, it was 85.6%/81.6% and 89.6%/84.7% respectively [3]. - The planned issuance scale of local government bonds from September to October 2025 is 1.1384 trillion yuan (753.8 billion yuan in September and 384.6 billion yuan in October), of which new special bonds account for 668.8 billion yuan (438.5 billion yuan in September and 230.3 billion yuan in October) [3]. - As of September 19, 2025, the cumulative issuance of special new special bonds was 1.1506 trillion yuan (52.1 billion yuan was issued this period); the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts was 1.9747 trillion yuan (21.4 billion yuan was issued this period), with an issuance progress of 98.7%, and 31 regions including Zhejiang have completed the issuance (Guizhou was added this period) [3]. 3.2 This period, the spreads between 10Y and 30Y local government bonds and treasury bonds narrowed, and the weekly turnover rate increased on a week - on - week basis - As of September 19, 2025, the spreads between 10 - year and 30 - year local government bonds and treasury bonds were 16.11BP and 17.04BP respectively, narrowing by 3.19BP and 0.56BP compared to September 12, 2025, and were at the 30.40% and 66.70% historical quantiles since 2023 respectively [3]. - The weekly turnover rate of local government bonds in this period was 0.87%, increasing from 0.78% in the previous period on a week - on - week basis. The yields and liquidity of 7 - 10Y local government bonds in Inner Mongolia, Liaoning, Shandong and other regions were better than the national average [3]. - Taking the 10 - year local government bond as the observation anchor, since 2018, the upper limit of the spread adjustment may be about 20 - 25BP higher than the lower limit of the issuance spread, and the lower limit may be around the lower limit of the issuance spread. Currently, the upper limit of the spread between local government bonds and treasury bonds may be around 30 - 35BP, and the lower limit may be around 5 - 10BP [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The issuance and net financing of local government bonds in the current period increased significantly compared to the previous period, and it is expected to remain at a high level in the next period. The current period (August 18 - August 24, 2025) saw a total issuance/net financing of RMB 369.15 billion/RMB 208.80 billion (previous period: RMB 91.432 billion/RMB -13.736 billion), and the next period (August 25 - August 31, 2025) is expected to have an issuance/net financing of RMB 351.597 billion/RMB 243.653 billion [2]. - The issuance of new local government bonds started to accelerate in the current period. As of August 22, 2025, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds/new special bonds accounted for 73.1% and 69.3% of the annual quota respectively, higher than the same period in 2024 but comparable to 2023 [2]. - The planned issuance of local government bonds from August to September 2025 totals RMB 1.7503 trillion, including RMB 1.063 trillion of new special bonds [2]. - The current period saw the issuance of RMB 9.75 billion of special new special bonds, RMB 2.12 billion of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts, and RMB 0.33 billion of special refinancing bonds for repaying existing debts [2]. - The spread between 10Y local government bonds and treasury bonds narrowed, while the spread between 30Y local government bonds and treasury bonds widened significantly in the current period, and the weekly turnover rate decreased compared to the previous period. As of August 22, 2025, the spreads were 18.82BP and 21.25BP respectively, narrowing by 0.53BP and widening by 10.00BP compared to August 15, 2025 [2]. - The cost - effectiveness of exploiting the spread between local government bonds and treasury bonds is not high at present [2]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 This period's local government bond issuance volume increased, and the weighted issuance term lengthened - The total issuance of local government bonds in the current period (August 18 - August 24, 2025) was RMB 369.15 billion, compared to RMB 91.432 billion in the previous period. The next period (August 25 - August 31, 2025) is expected to issue RMB 351.597 billion [2][9]. - The weighted issuance term of local government bonds in the current period was 17.35 years, longer than 12.42 years in the previous period (August 11 - August 17, 2025) [2][10]. - As of August 22, 2025, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds/new special bonds accounted for 73.1% and 69.3% of the annual quota respectively. Considering the expected issuance in the next period, it will be 77.6% and 73.6%. In 2024, the cumulative issuance progress was 61.1%/52.1% and 67.7%/60.6%, and in 2023, it was 73.7%/69.0% and 80.7%/75.1% [2][18]. - As of August 22, 2025, 30 regions have disclosed a total planned issuance of local government bonds of RMB 1.7503 trillion from August to September 2025 (RMB 1.0238 trillion in August and RMB 0.7265 trillion in September), including RMB 1.063 trillion of new special bonds [2][22]. - In the current period, RMB 9.75 billion of special new special bonds were issued, and the cumulative issuance reached RMB 90.52 billion. RMB 2.12 billion of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts were issued, with a cumulative issuance of RMB 190.42 billion and a progress of 95.2%. RMB 0.33 billion of special refinancing bonds for repaying existing debts were issued in Guizhou [2]. 3.2 This period's 30Y local government bond - treasury bond spread widened significantly, and the weekly turnover rate decreased - As of August 22, 2025, the spreads between 10 - year and 30 - year local government bonds and treasury bonds were 18.82BP and 21.25BP respectively, narrowing by 0.53BP and widening by 10.00BP compared to August 15, 2025, and were at the 49.40% and 83.60% historical quantiles since 2023 [2]. - The weekly turnover rate of local government bonds in the current period was 0.62%, a decrease from 0.65% in the previous period [2]. - The yields and liquidity of 7 - 10Y local government bonds in regions such as Qingdao, Sichuan, and Qinghai are better than the national average [2]. - Taking 10 - year local government bonds as an observation anchor, since 2018, the top of the spread adjustment may be 20 - 25BP above the lower limit of the issuance spread, and the bottom may be near the lower limit of the issuance spread. Currently, the top of the spread between local government bonds and treasury bonds may be around 30 - 35BP, and the bottom may be around 5 - 10BP [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The issuance and net financing of local government bonds decreased on a week-on-week basis this period, but are expected to increase significantly next period. The weighted issuance term shortened. The spread between 10Y local government bonds and treasury bonds widened, while the spread for 30Y narrowed. The weekly turnover rate increased on a week-on-week basis. The current cost-effectiveness of exploring the spread between local government bonds and treasury bonds is not high [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Local Government Bond Issuance and Net Financing - This period (2025.8.11 - 2025.8.17), local government bonds issued a total of 914.32 billion yuan, with a net financing of -137.36 billion yuan (last period was 1654.59 billion yuan/828.48 billion yuan). Next period (2025.8.18 - 2025.8.24), it is expected to issue 3691.50 billion yuan and have a net financing of 2088.00 billion yuan [2][4][6]. 2. Issuance Progress - As of August 15, 2025, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds/new special bonds accounted for 71.9% and 63.9% of the annual quota respectively. Considering the expected issuance next period, it will be 73.1% and 69.3%. The cumulative issuance progress in 2024 was 58.3%/49.2% and 61.1%/52.1%, and in 2023 it was 70.4%/67.7% and 73.7%/69.0% [2][4][15]. 3. Planned Issuance in August - September 2025 - As of August 15, 2025, 31 regions have disclosed a total planned issuance of 1638.8 billion yuan for local government bonds in August - September 2025 (8 - 9 months are 963.3 billion yuan and 675.5 billion yuan respectively), including 969.3 billion yuan for new special bonds [2][4][17]. 4. Special Bond Issuance - This period, 12.4 billion yuan of special new special bonds were issued, and 1.2 billion yuan of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts were issued. As of August 15, 2025, the cumulative issuance of special new special bonds was 807.7 billion yuan, and the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts was 1883 billion yuan, with an issuance progress of 94.2%. 26 regions including Zhejiang have completed all issuances (Dalian was newly added this period) [2]. 5. Spreads and Turnover Rate - As of August 15, 2025, the spreads between 10 - year and 30 - year local government bonds and treasury bonds were 19.35BP and 11.25BP respectively, widening by 6.26BP and narrowing by 2.75BP compared to August 8, 2025. They are at the 51.50% and 34.70% historical quantiles since 2023. The weekly turnover rate of local government bonds this period was 0.65%, up from 0.57% last period [2][21][25]. 6. Cost - Effectiveness of Spread Exploration - Taking 10 - year local government bonds as the observation anchor, since 2018, the upper limit of the spread adjustment may be about 20 - 25BP above the lower limit of the issuance spread, and the lower limit may be near the lower limit of the issuance spread. Currently, the upper limit of the spread between local government bonds and treasury bonds may be around 30 - 35BP, and the lower limit may be around 5 - 10BP [2].