行业点评报告 · 通信行业 足星移动通信牌照,卫星通信进程加速 2025 年 09 月 10 日 核心观点 除了面向大众的 To C 直连服务外,卫星运营还包括 To B 模式,即以太空算 力和"星缆计划"为代表的企业级专属服务,更侧重算力调度与数据传输等高 附加值需求。以之江实验室的三体计算星座为例,我们将其商业模式总结为三 大方向:1) 太空算力租赁服务:算力星座可作为"太空数据中心",通过星 间激光链路快速接入,为其他应用卫星提供边缘计算能力,实现太空数据"就 近处理",解决应用卫星"有星无算"的长期痛点。2)太空通信与星缆计划: 通过专属地面站与星间链路,构建"太空光纤"通道,形成低时延、高安全性 的跨域传输网络。该模式类比地面政企专线,面向云计算厂商、大型互联网等 客户,帮助其实现跨境数据传输、算力调度。其核心优势在于低延迟(星间激 光通信的传输路径更接近直线,数据传输速度更快）、安全性(规避跨境地区 安全风险）、以及经济性(使东部高需求地区能够实时调用西部低电价算力资 源),有效补足地面骨干网的短板。 3)智能数据资产变现:可将收集积累的 数据应用于农业、气象、能源、城市治理、低空积极等行业,形成 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the satellite communication industry [3]. Core Insights - The satellite communication sector is evolving from traditional voice and emergency connections to a composite infrastructure upgrade that integrates "communication + computing power + data" [6]. - The approval of mobile satellite communication licenses for major telecom operators like China Unicom is accelerating the formation of the satellite communication landscape, enhancing service offerings in emergency communication, maritime communication, and remote area connectivity [5][6]. - The industry is witnessing a shift in value distribution towards downstream applications and terminal segments, with the commercial exploration of operational and service models being central to future development [5]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The satellite industry encompasses manufacturing, launching, operational services, and ground equipment, forming a complete closed loop from spacecraft development to commercialization [5]. - According to the Satellite Industry Association (SIA), the global revenue distribution for satellite launch, manufacturing, operational services, and ground equipment in 2024 is projected to be 3.2%, 6.8%, 37.0%, and 53.0% respectively, indicating a shift towards downstream applications [5]. Business Models - The report identifies three main business directions for satellite operations: 1. Space computing power leasing services, acting as a "space data center" to provide edge computing capabilities [2]. 2. Space communication and the "Star Cable Plan," which aims to create a low-latency, high-security cross-domain transmission network [2]. 3. Monetization of intelligent data assets through applications in various industries, forming a "Data as a Service (DaaS)" model [2]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Putian Technology, Tongyu Communication, Zhenyou Technology, Jinxinno, Zongheng Communication, Zhenxin Technology, Shanghai Hantong, and Shunhao Co., Ltd. as potential investment opportunities in the satellite communication sector [6].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the optical module and commercial aerospace industries, highlighting significant growth and future potential in these sectors [1][2][6]. Optical Module Market Current Performance - The optical module market has shown strong performance since early 2025, driven by increased demand for training and inference computing power, particularly from major internet companies like Meta [2][3]. - There is an optimistic outlook for 2026, with potential valuations reaching 20-30 times if growth continues into 2027 [1][2]. Domestic Market Dynamics - The domestic optical module market is seeing increased concentration, with companies like Yizhongtian, Xuchuang, and Xinyi increasing their market share, enhancing their bargaining power and performance certainty [1][3]. - A market share above 70% is crucial to mitigate the impact of tariffs and prevent overcapacity issues [3]. AI Development Impact - The development of AI is expected to drive long-term growth in the optical module sector, with a consensus that demand will remain strong through 2027 [1][4][5]. - A valuation of 30 times for A-shares in 2026 is considered reasonable, and recent adjustments in the market are viewed as buying opportunities [5]. Commercial Aerospace Sector Key Developments - Major players in the commercial aerospace sector include China Unicom, which has obtained satellite licenses, indicating a competitive landscape in the satellite industry [6]. - Putian Technology is positioned as a space computing operator, with significant potential in this area [6][7]. Space Computing Business Models - Space computing can generate revenue through computing power leasing and the "Star Cable Plan," which facilitates satellite communication and ground monitoring [7][8]. - Estimated net profits from space computing could reach 1-2 billion RMB, with revenues between 20-30 billion RMB [8]. Star Cable Plan - The Star Cable Plan aims to solve latency issues and enhance bandwidth for 6G infrastructure, significantly improving data transmission speeds and efficiency [23][24][25][27]. - The plan utilizes laser communication technology, offering bandwidths of 400G or more, which is a substantial improvement over traditional microwave communication [25][26]. AI Sector Insights Market Adjustments - The AI sector has experienced a significant pullback due to overly optimistic market expectations, with a potential decline of around 30% [8]. - Despite short-term adjustments, the long-term outlook for AI remains positive, with continued investment expected through 2030 [8]. Investment Opportunities - The liquid cooling industry is highlighted as a key area for investment, particularly in B-end AI applications, as it is poised for growth amid the ongoing AI revolution [13][14][17]. Semiconductor and Consumer Electronics Market Trends - The semiconductor sector, particularly wafer foundries, storage, and power semiconductors, is expected to perform well, with low valuations and strong growth prospects [9]. - The consumer electronics sector, including new devices from major companies, is also seen as a promising area for investment [9]. Conclusion - The optical module and commercial aerospace industries are positioned for significant growth, driven by advancements in AI and space computing technologies. The market dynamics indicate a favorable environment for investment, particularly in companies that are adapting to these trends.

Group 1: Company Overview and Strategic Direction - Shanghai Shunhao New Materials Technology Co., Ltd. focuses on environmentally friendly packaging materials and has maintained stable operations over the years [2][3] - The company is exploring new strategic directions to find a second growth curve, particularly in the context of the AI computing wave [3][4] Group 2: Investment in Space Computing - The company invested RMB 110 million to acquire a 19.30% stake in Beijing Orbit Chen Guang Technology Co., Ltd., which specializes in space data centers [3] - The partnership aims to leverage both companies' resources and technological advantages to explore the space computing industry [3][4] Group 3: Space Computing Business Model - The space computing business is expected to have clear commercial value within 5 years, with potential competition against ground data centers emerging in 5-10 years [3] - The initial focus will be on "sky computing," which allows for faster data processing in space, enhancing efficiency in emergency scenarios [4][5] Group 4: Cost and Economic Viability - The estimated lifecycle cost of a space data center is currently about 2.7 times that of ground data centers, but this may equalize within 3-5 years due to technological advancements and reduced launch costs [10] - The company believes that the economic feasibility of space data centers will improve as launch costs decrease and the industry matures [10][11] Group 5: Challenges and Future Outlook - The primary challenge for the space computing sector is the high cost of launching satellites, which is currently significantly higher in China compared to the U.S. [11] - The company plans to launch its first experimental satellite by the end of 2025, contingent on the availability of launch windows [12] Group 6: Management and Governance - The company appointed Zhang Zong, CEO of Orbit Chen Guang, as co-president to enhance management and oversee new business strategies [14] - The company is also planning to apply for a listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to facilitate international expansion [14]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the **space computing industry**, focusing on the development and potential of space-based data processing and AI training capabilities [1][2][9]. Core Concepts and Arguments - **Space Computing**: This involves relocating data centers to space, allowing satellites to perform real-time calculations and decision-making, addressing limitations of traditional ground-based systems [2][3]. - **Efficiency and Cost**: Space computing can achieve marginal electricity costs 20-80 times lower than ground-based systems, leveraging solar energy and the vacuum environment of space to enhance energy efficiency [1][3]. - **Star Cloud Initiative**: A plan to launch satellites equipped with H100 chips by 2025, aiming to create a gigawatt-level orbital data center [1][5]. - **Three-body Computing Constellation**: A domestic initiative that has launched 12 satellites with a total computing power of 5POPS, with plans to expand to over 1,000 satellites by 2030, achieving a total computing power of 1,000P [1][5]. Company Insights - **Putian Technology**: A key player in the Three-body Computing Constellation, leveraging resources from national communication research institutes to secure government contracts and research resources [1][6]. - **Business Models**: Putian Technology aims to establish three main business models: space computing leasing, space communication and data transmission, and monetization of intelligent data assets [1][7]. Development Status and Global Context - **Current Projects**: The Three-body Computing Constellation is the first of its kind globally, with China making significant progress in this field compared to international competitors like Starlink and NASA [9][10]. - **Global Competition**: China's advancements in space computing are recognized as a national strategic priority, with increasing global demand for computing power driven by AI technology [14][15]. Challenges and Opportunities - **Challenges**: China faces challenges such as a limited number of satellites and lower rocket capacity compared to competitors like SpaceX, necessitating a focus on specialized satellite functions [15]. - **Opportunities**: The integration of ground and space capabilities is expected to create new business models, particularly in low-altitude economies and military applications [13][17]. Future Prospects - **Deployment Plans**: The goal is to deploy 1,000 operational satellites within three to five years, with ongoing launches to enhance global coverage and functionality [18][19]. - **Ground Station Development**: Plans to establish 20 laser and microwave ground stations globally, with a focus on enhancing data processing and transmission capabilities [12][22]. Conclusion - **Investment Potential**: Putian Technology's involvement in space computing positions it favorably for future growth, with manageable short-term risks and significant long-term opportunities in the evolving space computing landscape [28].

Market Review - On August 8, satellite internet stocks surged, with Aerospace Zhizhuang rising by 15.41%, Chunhui Zhikong by 10.17%, and Shanghai Huguang and Jiuzhiyang following suit [1] - Aerospace Zhizhuang's latest price is 20.60, with a market cap of 14.6 billion [1] - Chunhui Zhikong's latest price is 19.94, with a market cap of 2.68 billion [1] - Shanghai Huguang's latest price is 21.31, with a market cap of 6.78 billion [1] - Jiuzhiyang's latest price is 44.37, with a market cap of 7.99 billion [1] - Xinkemobile's latest price is 6.40, with a market cap of 8.82 billion [1] - Yiyu Communications' latest price is 17.86, with a market cap of 5.6 billion [1] Events - On August 4, China successfully launched the low Earth orbit satellite internet group 07 using the Long March 12 rocket [2] - On July 30, China successfully launched the low Earth orbit satellite internet group 06 using the Long March 8 rocket [2] - The GW constellation plans to launch a total of 12,992 satellites, with 10% expected to be launched by 2030 [2] Institutional Insights - The GW constellation has completed the deployment of seven satellite groups, while the Qianfan constellation has completed five launches, reaching 90 satellites in orbit [3] - The rapid pace of low Earth orbit satellite launches is confirmed by the recent successful launches of groups 06 and 07 [4] - The demand for FPGA in low Earth orbit satellites is increasing, which is expected to boost the industry [4] - Space computing is evolving towards a collaborative model, enhancing data processing capabilities in orbit [5] - New satellite constellations for remote sensing, computing, and relay are being developed, promoting diverse applications in the industry [5]

Key Insights - The macroeconomic environment shows strong export performance, with June exports reaching USD 325.18 billion, a year-on-year growth of 5.8% [2][4] - The trade surplus for June was USD 114.77 billion, indicating a positive trade balance despite challenges [2][4] - High-tech product exports increased by 9.2% in the first half of the year, contributing to overall export strength [8] Export Dynamics - The export growth is supported by three main factors: the "rush to export" effect due to tariff uncertainties, enhanced competitiveness of Chinese products, and a diversified opening-up strategy [8] - In June, exports to ASEAN countries grew by 16.8%, with significant increases in exports to Thailand, Vietnam, the Philippines, and Malaysia [4][8] - The export growth to the US continued to decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 16.1% in June, reflecting the impact of tariffs [4][8] Industry Analysis - The clean appliance market is experiencing rapid growth, with significant increases in online retail sales for vacuum and cleaning machines [25][27] - Major players in the clean appliance sector, such as Ecovacs, are showing improved performance, with a projected profit increase of over 57% in the first half of 2025 [27][28] - The competitive landscape is characterized by high entry barriers, with established brands like Ecovacs and Roborock leading the market [26][28] Company Insights - Qiuguang Cable has recently won contracts worth CNY 831.24 million from the State Grid, indicating strong market positioning [20][21] - The company has achieved a compound annual growth rate of 14.3% in revenue from 2020 to 2024, reflecting steady growth [22][23] - Qiuguang Cable's products are widely used in major national projects, enhancing its competitive edge in the industry [21][22] Banking Sector Outlook - The banking sector is expected to benefit from strengthened long-term assessments by insurance funds, enhancing dividend value [30][31] - The current PB ratio for the banking sector is 0.70, with a dividend yield of 5.54%, indicating attractive investment opportunities [30][31] - The adjustment in insurance fund regulations is likely to lead to increased allocations to equity assets, further supporting bank valuations [31][32]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the communication industry [3] Core Insights - Space-based computing is transforming the traditional "ground-based computing" model into a new paradigm where data processing occurs in orbit, significantly enhancing efficiency and reducing data wastage [8][19] - The market for space computing is vast, with applications expanding from remote sensing to real-time scenarios like vehicle networking and drone clusters, potentially opening up a trillion-dollar market [5][19] - The report highlights the advantages of space computing, including energy efficiency, superior thermal management, and modular deployment, which collectively address the challenges of energy consumption, density, and scalability in AI infrastructure [19][25][26] Summary by Sections 1. Breakthrough in Space Infrastructure - Space-based computing allows satellites to evolve from mere sensing platforms to intelligent entities capable of data processing and storage [8] - Traditional models waste significant amounts of data due to bandwidth limitations, with only about 4% of data from solar monitoring satellites being utilized effectively [8][11] - The transition to "space-based computing" enhances real-time task capabilities and has broad strategic value [8][12] 2. Domestic and International Case Studies - Starcloud, a U.S. startup, plans to launch the first AI satellite equipped with NVIDIA H100 by 2025, aiming to create a gigawatt-scale orbital data center [5][39] - The "Three-Body Computing Constellation" in China, launched in May 2025, features 12 intelligent satellites with a total computing power of 5 POPS, marking a significant advancement in space computing capabilities [5][44][49] 3. Outlook for Ground Communication Operators - Putian Technology is transitioning to become a provider of space-based information infrastructure, focusing on low-orbit satellite communication and high-reliability satellite manufacturing [5][30] - The report suggests that space computing can provide new perspectives for industries like finance and disaster monitoring, with significant market potential [5][19] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on satellite ground operators like Putian Technology, which show significant marginal improvements [5][19]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Beijing Orbit Chuangguang Technology Co., Ltd. has completed a financing round totaling 140 million RMB for its giant computing satellite constellation project, with investments from listed company Shunhao Co. and Lenovo Ventures [1][2] - The funding will be used for key technology research and development, experimental satellite launches, and network operations for the computing satellite constellation [1][2] - The project aims to deploy computing satellites in the Earth's dawn-dusk orbit to create a space data center, providing global users with space-based computing services [1][2] Group 2 - The rapid development of commercial aerospace and artificial intelligence has led to an increasing demand for space computing, prompting countries to consider relocating computing centers to space [2] - The company has made significant progress in key technology research, including the development of new gallium arsenide solar cells to significantly increase satellite power density compared to traditional satellites [2] - The first computing experimental satellite is expected to be launched by the end of this year, which will help address the limitations of ground computing centers and provide computing support for users globally [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the computer and AI sectors, including Yidao Information, iFlytek, Weike Technology, and others [15][53]. Core Insights - The "Star Computing" plan, led by Guoxing Aerospace, successfully launched 12 space computing satellites, marking the beginning of a new era in space computing [5][6][23]. - OpenAI's release of the cloud-based AI programming agent Codex is set to revolutionize software development, enabling developers to complete tasks that previously took hours in just 30 minutes [8][29][31]. - Perplexity AI is nearing completion of a $500 million funding round, raising its valuation to $14 billion, reflecting strong growth in the AI search engine market [10][37]. Summary by Sections Computing Power Dynamics - The rental prices for computing power remain stable, with specific configurations priced as follows: Tencent Cloud A100-40G at 28.64 CNY/hour and Alibaba Cloud A100-80G at 34.74 CNY/hour [22][24]. - The "Star Computing" plan aims to establish a space-based intelligent computing infrastructure, with the first batch of satellites equipped for space computing and interconnectivity [6][25]. AI Application Dynamics - Kimi's average traffic increased by 9.94%, indicating growing interest in AI applications [28]. - OpenAI's Codex, powered by the codex-1 model, is designed to assist developers in various coding tasks, significantly enhancing productivity [29][31]. AI Financing Trends - Perplexity AI's upcoming funding round will increase its valuation from $9 billion to $14 billion, highlighting the rapid growth in AI startups [10][37]. - The company has over 15 million monthly active users and is generating nearly $100 million in annual recurring revenue [10][38]. Investment Recommendations - Tencent reported a 13% year-on-year revenue growth in Q1 2025, with significant contributions from AI initiatives [51]. - Companies to watch include Jiahe Meikang, iFlytek, and others that are positioned to benefit from advancements in AI and computing power [52].