2026 年 1 月 9 日 行业研究 卫星星座组网加速，商业应用不断拓展 ——低轨卫星行业研究系列之四 要点 低轨卫星星座建设进入加速期，轨道与频谱资源争夺日趋激烈。低轨卫星凭借低 延迟、全球覆盖等优势，已成为商业航天发展的核心方向。当前各国正加快推进 低轨星座部署，以抢占有限的轨道和频谱资源。从轨道选择看，LEO 轨道因传 输损耗小、时延低，尤其适合实时通信与全球物联网连接；GEO 轨道容量趋于 饱和，MEO 则主要服务于导航等专项需求。频谱方面，行业正从传统的 C、Ku 频段向 Ka 等更高频段拓展，以支撑高通量数据传输。与此同时，卫星平台与载 荷技术持续升级，推动卫星向低成本、高性能、模块化方向发展，为大规模组网 奠定基础。 卫星平台与有效载荷技术持续突破，推动卫星性能提升与成本下降。卫星平台是 卫星稳定运行的基础，其结构、热控、姿轨控、电源等分系统日益集成化与智能 化。例如，结构分系统采用轻量化材料与模块化设计；热控技术结合被动与主动 手段，适应复杂空间环境；姿轨控系统逐步向星上自主处理演进。有效载荷作为 卫星功能的核心，正向多功能、软件定义方向演进。通信卫星已普遍采用相控阵 天线与处理式转发器，遥 ...

岁末年初，商业航天带着强劲势能，在一二级市场掀起新的波澜。近期，蓝箭航天、天兵科技、星河动力、星际荣耀、中科宇航这五家被称作"中国版 SpaceX"的企业，正集体向"商业火箭第一股"发起冲击，且估值均已站上百亿元台阶。 有关注该赛道的投资人分析，目前商业雷达卫星这类已出现并购迹象的细分赛道，有望释放老股转让的交易窗口；同时，部分布局中亚、中东市场通信卫星 的企业，正面临架构重组或海外融资受限的问题，这也给国内基金提供了潜在的切入机会。 很多时候，投资赚的就是非共识的钱，共识越强，投资窗口反而越小。如今的火热与2021年之前的寒冬形成鲜明对比，彼时的商业航天赛道还鲜有人问津， 就算是具备盈利潜力的项目，融资也并不顺利。 大洋彼岸的美国，马斯克旗下的SpaceX正在推进IPO计划，估值或将达1.5万亿美元；OpenAI也计划将算力中心搬到太空。这场围绕太空资源的极速竞赛已 拉开序幕。在政策持续助攻、退出预期不断加强之下，一级市场迎来了久违的躁动——资本加速卡位、争抢项目份额，相关标的估值也顺势攀升。随着优质 项目争夺愈发激烈，投资窗口正在缩小，赛道上下游更广阔的产业链空间，正等待资本深入挖掘。 "我们2021年发 ...

%% %% 联合研究丨行业点评 [Table_Title] 本轮商业航天行情较此前有何异同？ %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 不同点：催化密度和影响更大。11 月海外 AI 大厂导流，太空数据中心潜在应用场景，商业闭 环。25 年底-26 年初火箭可回收试验密集，任一公司成功均会对产业节奏造成提速。相同点： 高弹性+抗通缩选股逻辑。资本开支不会无限扩张且持续时间较短，当下单星价值量/份额高， 财务基数小的公司弹性更好。商业航天的产业中长期主旋律是通缩，而相控阵天线、太阳翼电 源等是影响通信卫星性能的核心环节，用量提升带来更好的抗通缩性。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 于海宁 王贺嘉 杨洋 SAC：S0490517110002 SAC：S0490520110004 SAC：S0490517070012 SFC：BUX641 SFC：BUX462 SFC：BUW100 张弛 宗建树 高伊楠 SAC：S0490520080022 SAC：S0490520030004 SAC：S0490517060001 SFC：BUT ...

Core Insights - The satellite launch industry is a crucial component of national strategic technological strength, with significant implications for national security and economic development [1][14] - The industry is experiencing steady growth driven by strong market demand and technological advancements, with revenue projected to reach 4.1 billion yuan in 2025 [1][15] Industry Overview - Satellite launch refers to the process of sending artificial satellites into predetermined orbits using launch vehicles, which includes preparation, ignition, separation, and orbit insertion [2] - The industry has evolved through various stages, from initial experimental research to commercial space launches, indicating significant progress and achievements [4] Industry Development History - The development of the satellite launch industry has gone through several phases: initial exploration (1950s-60s), growth (1970s-90s), maturity (1990s-early 2000s), and rapid innovation (21st century onwards) [4][5] Industry Chain - The upstream core of the satellite launch industry includes the research and manufacturing of rockets and satellites, while the downstream encompasses the lifecycle management of satellites in orbit [6][7] Market Statistics - In 2024, China is expected to launch a total of 257 spacecraft, including 122 communication satellites (47%), 117 remote sensing satellites (46%), and 10 scientific experimental satellites (3.89%) [1][14] - The revenue of China's satellite launch industry grew from 1.9 billion yuan in 2019 to 3.2 billion yuan in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 10.99% [1][15] Global Context - In 2024, the global satellite launch service industry is projected to generate $9.3 billion in revenue, a 30% increase year-on-year, with 224 launches conducted [11] - The U.S. accounts for 65% of global satellite launch service revenue, with significant contributions from government users [11][12] Competitive Landscape - The global satellite launch industry features diverse competition, with major players like Boeing and SpaceX in the U.S. and state-owned enterprises in China, alongside rapidly emerging private companies [15][16] Future Trends - The satellite launch service model is shifting towards high-frequency and flexible responses, with an emphasis on batch deployment and modular reconfiguration of launch processes [17][18] - Technological advancements will focus on reusable launch vehicles and intelligent control systems, enhancing reliability and adaptability [18][19] - The industry is expected to evolve into an open and collaborative ecosystem, integrating various sectors and services to create a comprehensive space economy [20]

Core Insights - The Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) successfully launched a communication satellite weighing approximately 4410 kilograms using the heavy-lift launch vehicle LVM3-M5 on November 2 [1] - This launch marks the heaviest satellite ever launched from India, entering a geosynchronous transfer orbit [1] - The Indian military highlighted that this achievement underscores India's growing autonomous capabilities in space technology, which will significantly enhance regional communication capabilities [1]

Group 1 - The Shanghai Futures Exchange issued a notice regarding the gold futures storage and invoicing process, which will be implemented according to new tax policies effective from November 1, 2025 [2] - Tesla is set to hold a shareholder vote on Elon Musk's $1 trillion compensation plan, facing opposition from advisory firms like Glass Lewis and ISS, leading to a public dispute between Musk and these firms [3] - The Indian Space Research Organisation successfully launched its heaviest satellite to date, weighing 4,410 kg, into geosynchronous transfer orbit using the LVM3-M5 rocket [4] Group 2 - Hong Kong's Financial Secretary, Paul Chan, indicated that the economy is showing positive momentum, with a 3.8% growth in Q3, and expects to meet the annual economic growth target [5] - Vanke announced a loan framework agreement with Shenzhen Metro Group, allowing for a maximum loan of RMB 22 billion, covering both unsecured and secured loans [6] - BYD reported cumulative sales of 3.7 million new energy vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of 13.88%, and a production of 429,808 vehicles in October [7] Group 3 - The China Listed Companies Association reported that listed companies achieved a total net profit of RMB 4.7 trillion in the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.5% [9] - Changan Automobile's total sales in October reached 278,000 units, marking an 11% increase year-on-year, with new energy vehicle sales hitting a record high [10] - Seres announced a 42.89% year-on-year increase in new energy vehicle sales for October, with cumulative sales of 356,085 units for the year [11] Group 4 - Great Wall Motors reported October sales of 143,100 units, a 22.50% increase year-on-year, with new energy vehicle sales of 46,200 units [12] - Former Xiaomi executive Wang Teng announced plans to explore new ventures in the technology and health sectors, moving away from the mobile industry [13]

Core Points - India successfully launched a communication satellite weighing 4,410 kilograms into geosynchronous transfer orbit on November 2 [1] - The satellite was launched using the heavy-lift rocket LVM3-M5, marking a significant achievement for the Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) [1] - This launch represents the heaviest satellite ever launched from Indian soil and the heaviest satellite launched using an indigenous Indian rocket [1]

Core Points - India successfully launched its heaviest communication satellite weighing approximately 4410 kilograms using the LVM3-M5 heavy-lift rocket [1][4] - The satellite entered a geosynchronous transfer orbit, marking a significant achievement for the Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) [4] - The Indian military highlighted that this launch demonstrates India's growing self-reliance in space technology and will significantly enhance regional communication capabilities [4]

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of the Henan Commercial Aerospace Industry Fund, with a planned scale of 500 million yuan and an initial subscription of 200 million yuan, aims to support the development of the aerospace industry in Hebi City, focusing on the entire industrial chain from rocket manufacturing to satellite applications [1][6]. Group 1: Fund Overview - The Henan Commercial Aerospace Industry Fund is currently in the establishment phase and will be managed by Henan Agricultural Investment and Innovation Private Fund Management Co., Ltd. [1] - The fund's primary investment focus includes the commercial aerospace industry chain in Hebi, specifically in rocket manufacturing and ground equipment [6]. Group 2: Industry Context - The commercial aerospace industry has been rapidly developing, with continuous launches of remote sensing, navigation, and communication satellites, leading to a gradual commercialization of satellite applications [6]. - Hebi City is integrating into the national aerospace strategy, positioning the commercial aerospace industry as a key driver for cultivating new productive forces [6]. Group 3: Government Support and Infrastructure - The Henan provincial government has actively supported the development of the satellite industry in Hebi, issuing several strategic plans to enhance the region's capabilities [6]. - Hebi City has established a comprehensive industrial ecosystem that includes upstream satellite and rocket manufacturing, midstream satellite control, and downstream application scenarios, supported by the establishment of the "Henan Satellite Industry Park" [7][8]. Group 4: Strategic Goals - The fund is seen as a crucial tool for promoting technological innovation and industrial upgrading, leveraging government investment to attract social and financial capital [8]. - The goal is to enhance the competitive advantage of Hebi's commercial aerospace industry through a synergistic effect of capital and policy, ultimately fostering a robust industrial ecosystem [8].

Group 1: Japan's Military and Economic Challenges - Japan is responding to strategic challenges posed by China, as indicated by its recent military deployments and the upcoming 2025 defense white paper [2][9][13] - The defense white paper outlines the threats from China's military actions and emphasizes the need for Japan to establish a "defensive perimeter" against China [13][16] - Japan plans to significantly increase its Self-Defense Forces' capabilities and has been enhancing military deployments in the southwestern region [16][17] Group 2: Economic Relations and Trade Agreements - Japan's economy has deteriorated, and it faces immense pressure from the U.S. regarding its stance on the Taiwan Strait issue [9][20] - A recent trade agreement between Japan and the U.S. has been compared to the historical Plaza Accord, indicating Japan's increasing dependence on the U.S. [20][23] - Japan's trade deficit with China reached $42.4 billion in 2024, while it maintains a trade surplus with the U.S., primarily through automobile exports [29] Group 3: Future Prospects and Regional Cooperation - Japan's manufacturing sector is in decline, losing competitiveness in key industries to China [26] - There are discussions about Japan potentially joining a China-Japan-Korea Free Trade Zone, which could help revitalize its manufacturing sector [30] - However, U.S. interference has historically disrupted Japan's attempts to strengthen ties with China, posing a risk to its future economic opportunities [30]