Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it offers specific outlooks and trading suggestions for various commodities. 2. Core Views - **Macro Environment**: Market uncertainties persist across different sectors, influencing the price movements of various commodities. The economic situation, policy changes, and geopolitical factors all play significant roles in shaping market trends [1]. - **Commodity - Specific Trends**: Different commodities have distinct price trends based on their supply - demand fundamentals, cost factors, and external influences such as tariffs and geopolitical events. For example, some metals are expected to face downward pressure due to factors like supply increases or cost - related issues, while others may see price rebounds or stabilizations [1]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories **Macro - Financial** - **Equity Index**: In the short term, with limited domestic and international positive factors, but decent market sentiment and liquidity, the equity index may show a relatively strong oscillatory pattern [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and a weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term warning about interest - rate risks restricts upward movement [1]. **Precious Metals** - **Gold**: Given market uncertainties, the gold price is expected to mainly oscillate in the short term [1]. - **Silver**: Similar to gold, the silver price is likely to oscillate due to market uncertainties [1]. **Base Metals** - **Copper**: The potential implementation of US copper tariffs may lead to a back - flow of non - US copper, posing a risk of price correction for Shanghai and London copper [1]. - **Aluminum**: With the cooling of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and high prices suppressing downstream demand, the aluminum price faces a risk of decline. However, the domestic anti - involution policy boosts the expectation of supply - side reform, causing the alumina price to stabilize and rebound [1]. - **Zinc**: Tariff disturbances are increasing, and the expected inventory build - up is still pressuring the zinc price. Traders are advised to look for short - selling opportunities [1]. - **Nickel**: With macro uncertainties and a slight decline in the premium of Indonesian nickel ore, the nickel price is expected to oscillate weakly. Short - term short - selling is recommended, and in the long - term, the oversupply of primary nickel will continue to exert downward pressure [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: After a rebound, the sustainability of the stainless - steel price is uncertain. Short - term trading is advised, and selling hedges can be considered at high prices, while keeping an eye on raw - material changes and steel production [1]. - **Tin**: With increasing tariff disturbances, the tin price is mainly priced based on macro factors. In the short term, the supply - demand situation is weak, and the driving force for price movement is limited [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply shows a pattern of decrease in the north and increase in the south. Although the demand for polysilicon has a marginal increase, there are expectations of future production cuts. After the price rally, market divergence is likely to emerge [1]. - **Polysilicon**: There are expectations of supply - side reform in the photovoltaic market, and market sentiment is high [1]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The supply side has not seen production cuts, downstream replenishment is mainly by traders, and there is capital - based gaming in the market [1]. **Black Metals** - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The strong performance of furnace materials provides cost support, but the spot market for hot - rolled coils has a risk of marginal weakening. Both are expected to oscillate [1]. - **Iron Ore**: In the short term, production has increased, demand is decent, supply - demand is relatively balanced, but cost support is insufficient, and the price is under pressure [1]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The price is under pressure due to short - term production increases, relatively balanced supply - demand, and insufficient cost support [1]. - **Silicon Iron**: Production has slightly increased, demand is okay, and supply - demand is relatively balanced [1]. - **Glass**: There is an improvement in the supply - demand margin in the short term, with stable supply and resilient demand. However, in the medium - term, oversupply may make it difficult for the price to rise [1]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply has been disrupted, direct and terminal demand is weak, cost support has weakened, and the price is under pressure [1]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: For coking coal, short - term short - selling opportunities can be considered, and for coke, focus on selling hedges when the futures price has a premium [1]. **Agricultural Products** - **Palm Oil**: OPEC +'s unexpected production increase causes a decline in crude oil prices, and palm oil is expected to follow suit. In the long run, international oil - fat demand is expected to increase, so a bullish view is taken on far - month contracts [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: The near - month fundamentals are weak, but it may show a relatively strong performance due to the influence of palm oil [1]. - **Cotton**: In the short term, there are disturbances such as trade negotiations and weather premiums for US cotton. In the long - term, macro uncertainties are high. The domestic cotton - spinning industry is in the off - season, and downstream inventories are starting to accumulate. Overall, the domestic cotton price is expected to show a weakly oscillatory downward trend [1]. - **Sugar**: Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production is expected to reach a record high, but if crude oil prices continue to be weak, it may affect the sugar - production ratio and lead to higher - than - expected sugar output [1]. - **Corn**: Short - term policy - driven grain releases and a low wheat - corn price difference have a negative impact on the corn market. The futures price is expected to oscillate, and for the far - month CO1 contract, short - selling opportunities at high prices can be considered [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: In the US, the supply - demand balance sheet is expected to tighten. If Sino - US trade policies remain unchanged, there is an expectation of inventory reduction in the fourth quarter for soybean meal, and the far - month contract price is expected to rise. If an agreement is reached, the overall decline in the futures price is expected to be limited [1]. **Energy and Chemicals** - **Crude Oil and Fuel Oil**: With the cooling of the Middle - East geopolitical situation, the market returns to being dominated by supply - demand logic. OPEC +'s unexpected production increase and strong short - term consumption in Europe and the US during the peak season are the main influencing factors [1]. - **Natural Rubber**: The downstream demand is showing a weakening trend, the supply - side production is expected to increase, and inventory has slightly increased [1]. - **BR Rubber**: There have been recent device disturbances stimulating the price increase, OPEC's unexpected production increase, the fundamentals of synthetic rubber are under pressure, and attention should be paid to the price adjustments of butadiene and cis - butadiene and the de - stocking progress of synthetic rubber [1]. - **PTA**: The PTA basis continues to weaken, but the crude - oil price remains strong. The polyester downstream load remains at 90% despite the expectation of reduction, and the PTA spot market is becoming more abundant, with low replenishment willingness from polyester manufacturers due to profit compression [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The coal price has slightly increased, the future arrival volume of ethylene glycol is large, and the concentrated procurement due to improved polyester sales has an impact on the market [1]. - **Short - Fiber**: The short - fiber warehouse - receipt registration volume is low, and factory maintenance has increased. With a high basis, the cost of short - fiber is closely related to the market [1]. - **Styrene**: The pure - benzene price has slightly recovered, the import volume has decreased, the styrene device load has increased, the styrene inventory is concentrated, and the styrene basis has significantly weakened [1]. - **Urea**: Domestic demand is average, the summer agricultural demand is coming to an end, but the export expectation in the second half of the year is improving [1]. - **PE**: With good macro - sentiment, many maintenance activities, and mainly rigid demand, the price is expected to oscillate strongly [1]. - **PP**: The maintenance support is limited, orders are mainly for rigid demand, and the anti - involution policy has boosted market sentiment, causing the price to oscillate strongly [1]. - **PVC**: The price of coking coal has increased, the market sentiment is good, the number of maintenance activities has decreased compared to the previous period, but the downstream has entered the seasonal off - season, and the supply pressure has increased. The price is expected to oscillate strongly [1]. - **Caustic Soda**: Maintenance is nearly over, the spot price has dropped to a low level, the decline in liquid chlorine has eroded the comprehensive profit of the chlor - alkali industry, and the number of current warehouse receipts is low. Attention should be paid to the change in liquid chlorine [1]. - **LPG**: The July CP prices of propane and butane have both decreased, OPEC + has unexpectedly increased production, the combustion and chemical demand for LPG is in the seasonal off - season, and the spot price decline is slow, so the PG price still has room to fall [1]. **Shipping** - **Container Shipping (European Route)**: There is a pattern of stable current situation and weak future expectations. The freight rate is expected to reach its peak in mid - July, showing an arc - top trend, and the peak - reaching time is advanced. The subsequent weeks will have sufficient capacity deployment [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - After the Sino-US London negotiation, the trading focus of the bond market has returned to domestic factors. The current monetary policy has become loose, and there is a strong expectation of further easing in Q3. However, the bond market is expected to remain range - bound due to macro uncertainties [1][14]. - The central bank's policy intervention has changed the "trend bull" to an "oscillating bull" in the bond market. With the uncertainty of the Sino - US trade negotiation timeline and July being a potential policy announcement window, the bond market is expected to oscillate or rise slightly in the short term. Given the strong performance of the stock market this year, the bond market is expected to remain high and oscillate [2][30]. - The trading difficulty in the bond market increases with more macro uncertainties. It is recommended to capture short - term bullish opportunities and use arbitrage strategies while being cautious about short - term bond market risks caused by changes in market risk appetite [2][30]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weak Fundamentals and Oscillation 3.1.1 Inflation and Growth Recovery Require Greater Policy Efforts - Since the beginning of the year, the Treasury bond futures market has been volatile with high - level oscillations. The central bank intervened in February to prevent excessive interest rate decline and capital idling, leading to a monthly correction in the bond market. Subsequently, medium - and long - term allocation funds bought when the 30Y interest rate rose by more than 20bp, stabilizing the market. The bond market then fluctuated due to Sino - US trade conflicts [5]. - The macro - fundamental situation remains at the bottom with oscillations. Exports have been affected by the Sino - US trade war, and domestic demand recovery is not significant. There is an "asset shortage" in RMB assets, and the structure has changed compared to the past two years. If external Fed rate cuts accelerate and internal policies stimulate the economy, the stock market may see a mid - term recovery; otherwise, the risk - free interest rate may continue to decline [6][7]. 3.1.2 Liquidity, Monetary Policy, and Seat Analysis - After the Sino - US London negotiation, the bond market trading focus is back on domestic factors. The current monetary policy is loose, and there is a strong expectation of further easing in Q3. However, the bond market is expected to remain range - bound due to macro uncertainties. The central bank's next focus is to boost inflation, promote growth, and reduce costs, but attention should be paid to market expectation reversals and changes in risk appetite [14]. - Currently, the trading volume of the 12 - contract is limited, and the short - term inter - delivery spread may be positively correlated with the market. The basis has converged during the repair process since early June, and the market has a demand for profit - taking in positive hedging. The curve structure has limited factors to support long - term steepening, and the steepening space may be reduced [15]. - Since June, the net long position in the market has increased slightly, indicating cautious market sentiment. After a slight upward oscillation of each contract recently, it may reach the upper limit of the stage range. Caution should be exercised against emotional disturbances [16]. 3.2 The Downward Trend of the Long - Term Interest Rate Center Remains Unchanged, but the Short - Term Rhythm Varies 3.2.1 The Downward Trend of the Long - Term Interest Rate Remains Unchanged - Since 2015, China's interest rates have generally shown a downward trend, with three upward periods lasting more than a quarter. The duration and amplitude of these upward periods have been decreasing. The current passive de - stocking period has lasted nearly 28 months, longer than the previous cycle. If fiscal policy remains "supportive but not aggressive", the long - term interest rate center will continue to decline [26]. 3.2.2 Market Outlook for the Second Half of the Year - The central bank's policy intervention has changed the bond market from a "trend bull" to an "oscillating bull". With the uncertainty of the Sino - US trade negotiation timeline and July being a potential policy announcement window, the bond market is expected to oscillate or rise slightly in the short term. The view that the bond market will remain high and oscillate is maintained. Trading difficulty increases, and it is recommended to capture short - term bullish opportunities and use arbitrage strategies while being cautious about short - term risks [2][30].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Aluminum, Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Rapeseed Oil [1] - Bearish: Coke, Coking Coal, BR Rubber [1] - Neutral: Gold, Silver, Copper, Alumina, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, Lithium Carbonate, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Ferro - Silicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Cotton, Pulp, Crude Oil, Asphalt, Shanghai Rubber, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short Fiber, Pure Benzene, Styrene, PP, PVC, Aluminum Oxide, LPG, Container Shipping European Line [1] Core Views - Geopolitical conflicts are intensifying, and options tools can be used to hedge uncertainties [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward trend [1] - The situation has slightly eased, and the gold price may return to a volatile state in the short term; the long - term upward logic remains solid [1] - The market should pay attention to tariff - related developments and domestic and foreign economic data changes due to the repeated market sentiment affected by the Middle East geopolitical risks and the resilience of China's May economic data [1] Summaries by Industry Categories Macro - finance - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but short - term central bank warnings on interest - rate risks suppress the upward movement [1] Non - ferrous metals - Copper: Market risk appetite has declined, downstream demand has entered the off - season, and there is a risk of price correction after the copper price has risen [1] - Aluminum: Domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory has continued to decline, and the risk of a short squeeze still exists, with the aluminum price remaining strong; alumina spot price is relatively stable, while the futures price is weak, and the futures discount is obvious [1] - Nickel: The Middle East geopolitical risk persists, and the domestic May economic data shows resilience. The nickel price is in a short - term weak shock, and there is still pressure from the long - term surplus of primary nickel [1] - Stainless steel: The price of nickel iron has fallen, steel mill price limits are fluctuating, spot sales are weak, and social inventory has slightly increased. The short - term futures price is in a weak shock, and there is still long - term supply pressure [1] - Tin: The supply contradiction of tin ore has intensified in the short term, and the increase in Wa State's tin ore production still takes time, so the short - term tin price is in a high - level shock [1] Energy and chemicals - Crude oil: Geopolitical tensions are easing, and the price has fallen. The chemical industry as a whole has followed the decline in the crude oil price [1] - PTA: The spot basis remains strong, PXN is expected to be compressed due to the delay of Northeast PX device maintenance and market rumors of the postponement of Zhejiang reforming device maintenance [1] - Ethylene Glycol: It continues to reduce inventory, and the arrival volume will decrease. Polyester production cuts have an impact on the market [1] - Short fiber: In the case of a high basis, the cost is closely related to the price. Short - fiber factories have started maintenance plans [1] - Pure benzene and styrene: The price of pure benzene has started to weaken, the load of styrene devices has increased, and the basis has also weakened [1] - PP: The price is in a volatile and slightly downward trend, with limited support from maintenance [1] - PVC: After the end of maintenance and the commissioning of new devices, the downstream enters the seasonal off - season, and the supply pressure increases [1] - Alumina: The electricity price has dropped, and non - aluminum demand is weaker than last year. The market is trading the price - cut expectation in advance [1] - LPG: Geopolitical sentiment has eased, and the price premium is expected to be repaired [1] Agricultural products - Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil: The US biodiesel RVO quota proposal exceeds market expectations, which may tighten the global oil supply - demand situation, and they are considered bullish in the short term [1] - Cotton: There are short - term disturbances in US cotton, and the long - term macro uncertainty is strong. The domestic cotton price is expected to be in a weak shock [1] - Sugar: Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production is expected to reach a record high, but the oil price may affect the sugar production through the sugar - alcohol ratio [1] - Corn: The overall supply - demand situation in the corn year is tight, and the short - term price is expected to be in a shock [1] - Bean粕: Before the release of the USDA planting area report at the end of the month, the futures price is expected to be in a shock [1] - Pulp: The current demand is light, but the downward space is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see [1] - Hog: The inventory is being repaired, the slaughter weight is increasing, and the futures price is relatively stable [1] Others - Container Shipping European Line: There is a situation of strong expectation and weak reality. The peak - season contracts can be lightly tested for long positions, and attention should be paid to arbitrage opportunities [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a bullish outlook on gold despite recent price consolidation, indicating a positive investment sentiment towards the precious metals sector [2][6][7]. Core Insights - The gold price has been consolidating since reaching an all-time high of $3,500 in late April, with market participants reacting to US tariffs and economic data, leading to volatile trading conditions [2][6][7]. - High levels of uncertainty regarding US fiscal policy and the Federal Reserve's response enhance gold's appeal as a portfolio diversifier [7][8]. - There is a notable interest in buying dips in gold, with prices frequently returning above the $3,300 mark, suggesting potential for further upside [8][9]. Summary by Sections Gold Market Dynamics - The gold market is experiencing thinner liquidity conditions, which could amplify price movements, making it easier for price changes to occur with lower trading volumes [3][9]. - Continued buying from the official sector and inflows into gold ETFs are contributing to a reduction in available metal in the market [9][10]. Physical Demand and Investment Trends - Global physical investment demand for gold bars and coins increased by 3% year-on-year in Q1, despite a 12% drop in overall consumer demand due to a decline in jewelry consumption [10][16]. - Mainland China accounted for approximately 38% of total physical consumer demand in Q1, highlighting its significant role in the gold market [10][26]. Shifts in Investor Preferences - There are indications that investors may be rotating from gold to white precious metals like platinum and silver, as evidenced by changes in futures open interest [4][32]. - Platinum has recently outperformed gold, gaining around 4% in a single day, while palladium also saw gains, suggesting a shift in investor focus towards more industrial precious metals [4][37].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the main contract price of Shanghai zinc futures showed a trend of first declining and then rising. The Sino - US negotiation in London had no obvious changes. US inflation data in May was lower than expected, strengthening the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September. China's inflation data remained weak, and May's credit and social financing data had both positive and negative aspects. The conflict between Israel and Iran escalated on Friday, leading to a decline in market risk appetite [3][11]. - Overseas zinc ore inflows increased, raw materials remained abundant, and smelters' bargaining power recovered. The internal and external processing fees increased steadily. With the repair of profits and sufficient raw materials, the transmission from the mine end to the smelting end was smooth. It is expected that the supply of refined zinc will recover strongly in June, and the supply side will gradually loosen. On the demand side, galvanized pipe orders decreased, and galvanized structural part orders decreased marginally. The operating rate of die - casting zinc alloy enterprises increased significantly, but there was a lack of continuous export orders. Environmental inspections slightly affected the production of zinc oxide enterprises, and their operating rate decreased slightly [4][11]. - Overall, the Sino - US negotiation had no obvious changes, and the escalation of the Middle East geopolitical conflict increased macro - uncertainty. The market's risk - aversion sentiment increased, and the fundamentals maintained a pattern of increasing supply and weak demand. The zinc price center moved down. However, downstream restocking at low prices made the inventory - reduction rhythm fluctuate, and it was difficult for the zinc price to decline rapidly. It is expected that the zinc price will remain oscillating weakly, and continuous attention should be paid to macro risks and inventory changes [4] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Transaction Data - From June 6th to June 13th, the SHFE zinc price decreased from 22,385 yuan/ton to 21,815 yuan/ton, a decrease of 570 yuan/ton; the LME zinc price decreased from 2,662.5 dollars/ton to 2,626.5 dollars/ton, a decrease of 36 dollars/ton. The Shanghai - London ratio decreased from 8.41 to 8.31. The SHFE inventory decreased by 1,546 tons to 45,466 tons, the LME inventory decreased by 5,975 tons to 131,000 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 0.22 million tons to 7.71 million tons. The spot premium increased from 150 yuan/ton to 270 yuan/ton [5] 2. Market Review - Last week, the main contract ZN2507 of Shanghai zinc futures first declined and then rose. Affected by the continuous increase in inventory on Monday, short - sellers increased their positions, and the zinc price fell below 22,000 yuan/ton. However, downstream purchasing at low prices increased, and with the Sino - US negotiation and the increasing expectation of a rate cut, the macro - environment improved. The zinc price recovered the decline at the beginning of the week, closing at 21,815 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 2.55%. The zinc price center moved down on Friday night. Due to macro - uncertainty and high inventory, the LME zinc price remained weak, closing at 2,626.5 dollars/ton, a weekly decline of 1.35% [6] - As of June 13th, in the Shanghai spot market, the mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was 22,185 - 22,370 yuan/ton, with a premium of 350 yuan/ton over the 2507 contract. In the Ningbo market, the mainstream price was 22,205 - 22,340 yuan/ton, with a premium of 250 yuan/ton over the 2507 contract. In the Tianjin market, the mainstream price was 22,190 - 22,390 yuan/ton, with a premium of 180 - 300 yuan/ton over the 2507 contract. In the Guangdong market, the mainstream price was 22,190 - 22,390 yuan/ton, with a premium of 270 yuan/ton over the 2507 contract. As the inflow of imported zinc ingots increased and the downstream had some inventory after purchasing at low prices, the purchasing intensity weakened in the second half of the week, and traders lowered the spot premium. The market transaction was relatively dull [7] - As of June 13th, the LME zinc inventory was 131,000 tons, a weekly decrease of 5,975 tons. The SHFE inventory was 45,466 tons, a decrease of 1,546 tons from last week. As of June 12th, the social inventory was 7.71 million tons, a decrease of 0.46 million tons from Monday and 0.22 million tons from last Thursday. After the zinc price fell below 22,000 yuan/ton during the week, downstream purchasing at low prices led to a significant decline in inventory in many places, especially in Shanghai and Tianjin. The inventory in Guangdong changed little due to the slow downstream pick - up rhythm and normal arrivals during the week [8] - From June 9th to 10th, the first meeting of the Sino - US economic and trade consultation mechanism was held in London. The two sides had a frank and in - depth dialogue, reached a principle agreement on the measure framework for implementing the important consensus of the phone call between the two heads of state on June 5th and consolidating the results of the Geneva economic and trade talks, and made new progress in resolving each other's economic and trade concerns. The US Federal Appellate Court extended the validity of Trump's tariffs, and a key hearing will be held at the end of July. US CPI in May increased by 2.4% year - on - year, core CPI increased by 0.1% month - on - month, and PPI and core PPI both increased by 0.1% month - on - month, with the core PPI growth rate hitting a new low in nearly a year [9] - China's CPI in May decreased by 0.2% month - on - month and 0.1% year - on - year, and core CPI increased by 0.6% year - on - year. In the first five months, China's total value of goods trade imports and exports was 17.94 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. Exports were 10.67 trillion yuan, an increase of 7.2%; imports were 7.27 trillion yuan, a decrease of 3.8%. In May, new RMB loans were 620 billion yuan, new social financing was 2.29 trillion yuan, the stock social financing growth rate was 8.7%, M2 increased by 7.9% year - on - year, and M1 increased by 2.3% year - on - year [10] 3. Industry News - As of the week ending June 13th, the domestic zinc concentrate processing fee was 3,600 yuan/metal ton, remaining flat compared to the previous week; the imported zinc concentrate index was 53 dollars/dry ton, an increase of 2.65 dollars/dry ton compared to the previous week [12] 4. Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including the price trend chart of SHFE zinc and LME zinc, the internal and external price ratio chart, the spot premium chart, the LME premium chart, the inventory charts of SHFE, LME, social, and bonded areas, the zinc ore import profit - loss chart, the smelter profit chart, the domestic refined zinc production chart, the refined zinc net import chart, and the downstream primary enterprise operating rate chart [13][15][17]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market has no prominent contradictions, with prices oscillating at low levels. After the basis repair, prices may face pressure again if there is no better bullish story in the industry. The resistance levels for the rebound of hot-rolled coils and rebar are around the 20-day moving average on the surface, which is also the point range for re-entering hedging [6]. - In the coking coal and coke market, coking coal auctions remain weak, but the lower support on the futures price is strong. Although the medium - and long - term bottom of coking coal has not been determined, short - term rebounds may continue due to capital games. There may be a short - term restocking market similar to that in March if the futures price continues to rise [6]. - The silicon - iron and manganese - silicon markets have fluctuating sentiment and enhanced price elasticity. Supply and demand are relatively balanced, but there is a trend of marginal increase in supply and a decline in costs. Prices are expected to be under pressure [6]. - The iron ore market is mainly influenced by short - term news and sentiment. The downward trend remains unchanged, and it is necessary to pay attention to the changes in iron ore inventory and steel exports after the peak season [6]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Futures Market - On June 10, for far - month contracts, RB2601 closed at 2970 yuan/ton, down 0.13%; HC2601 at 3085 yuan/ton, unchanged; I2601 at 663.5 yuan/ton, down 0.75%; J2601 at 1364.5 yuan/ton, up 0.07%; JM2601 at 791.5 yuan/ton, down 0.38%. For near - month contracts, RB2510 closed at 2974 yuan/ton, down 0.07%; HC2510 at 3089 yuan/ton, unchanged; I2509 at 698.5 yuan/ton, down 0.85%; J2509 at 1349 yuan/ton, up 0.48%; JM2509 at 785 yuan/ton, up 0.51% [3]. - The cross - month spreads, spreads/ratios/profits, and basis of various varieties also showed corresponding changes on June 10 [3]. Spot Market - On June 10, the prices of Shanghai rebar, Tianjin rebar, and Guangzhou rebar were 3100 yuan/ton, 3220 yuan/ton, and 3190 yuan/ton respectively. The price of Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3180 yuan/ton, and the prices of other spot products also had specific values and changes [3]. Market Analysis of Different Varieties - **Steel**: The spot trading is lackluster. There is no strong upward - driving force in the industry. The recent coal - coke market fluctuations are due to short - covering by short - sellers. After the basis repair, prices may face pressure again [6]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal auction is weak, with many unsuccessful auctions. The cost of coal for furnaces is decreasing, and there is still an expectation of price cuts. The futures price of coking coal may continue to rebound in the short term, but the medium - and long - term bottom has not been determined [6]. - **Silicon - Iron and Manganese - Silicon**: Supply has recovered, direct demand has weakened marginally, and cost support has declined. Prices are expected to be under pressure [6]. - **Iron Ore**: The short - term fundamentals have not changed significantly. The downward trend remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to the changes in inventory and exports after the peak season [6]. Investment Suggestions - For steel, take a wait - and - see approach for single - side trading. For futures - spot trading, choose hot - rolled coils with better liquidity for hedging and open - position management [6]. - For coking coal and coke, be aware that the short - term rebound may not be over [6]. - For silicon - iron and manganese - silicon, participate through buying options due to the high price elasticity at low levels, and pay attention to futures - spot positive arbitrage [6].

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The current spot gold price is around $3316, having previously peaked at $3403, a four-week high, before retreating due to eased trade tensions between the US and China [1] - Silver prices have surpassed $35, reaching a 13-year high, contributing to the rise in gold prices [1] - The market is focused on upcoming non-farm payroll data and the Federal Reserve's meeting on June 17-18 to gauge short-term gold price movements [1] Group 2: Technical Analysis of Gold - On the daily chart, gold is in a consolidation phase with a narrowing Bollinger Band, indicating a stalemate between bulls and bears [3] - The MACD shows a potential bullish crossover, while the RSI is around 55, suggesting intense market competition [3] - Key support is identified at $3300, with resistance levels at $3335-$3345 [3] Group 3: Oil Market Analysis - Brent crude oil prices are stable around $65 per barrel, marking the first weekly rebound since mid-May, while WTI is near $63 [4] - The market's fear of panic selling has decreased as macroeconomic uncertainties ease, but the underlying support for oil prices remains fragile [4] - Future oil price trends will depend on OPEC+'s production decisions and market expectations of oversupply by year-end [4] Group 4: Technical Analysis of Oil - The mid-term trend for oil prices is downward, with a potential bearish flag pattern forming after hitting a low of $55.20 [5] - Short-term movements indicate a consolidation phase, with expectations of testing lower support levels around $63-$62 [5] - The recommended trading strategy is to focus on buying on dips and selling on rebounds, with key resistance at $66-$67 and support at $63-$62 [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - There is no explicit overall industry investment rating provided in the report. However, investment suggestions are given for different sectors, including "long - position reduction", "short - selling opportunities", "interval trading", etc. [1] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The market shows complex trends due to various factors such as economic data, policy changes, and supply - demand relationships across different commodity sectors. The overall market sentiment is affected by factors like the US consumer confidence index, inflation expectations, and geopolitical events. [1] Group 3: Summaries by Related Catalogs Macro - Financial - For stock index futures, it is recommended to consider reducing long positions and be vigilant about further adjustment risks [1]. - The bond futures are supported by asset shortage and weak economy in the long - term, but the short - term rise is suppressed by the central bank's interest - rate risk reminder [1]. - Gold prices may enter a consolidation phase in the short - term, while the long - term upward logic remains unchanged. Silver prices may be more resilient than gold in the short - term due to potential tariff impacts [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper prices are expected to be weak in the short - term due to lower downstream demand and other factors [1]. - Aluminum prices will remain strong in the short - term supported by low inventory and alumina price rebounds. Alumina prices continue to rise due to supply disruptions [1]. - Zinc fundamentals are weak, and it is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities [1]. - Nickel prices will oscillate in the short - term and face long - term oversupply pressure. Short - term interval trading is suggested [1]. - Stainless steel futures will oscillate in the short - term with long - term supply pressure. Interval trading is recommended [1]. - Tin prices have strong fundamental support before the复产 of Wa State [1]. Chemicals - Silicon presents a situation of strong supply, weak demand, and low - valuation, with no improvement in demand and high inventory pressure [1]. - Lithium carbonate has no further supply contraction, increasing inventory, and downstream rigid - demand purchasing [1]. - For methanol, the short - term spot market will trade in a range, and the long - term market may turn from strong to weak and oscillate [1]. - PVC has weak fundamentals but is boosted by macro - factors, and its price will oscillate [1]. - LPG prices are expected to decline in the short - term due to tariff easing and demand off - season [1]. Black Metals - Rebar is in a window of switching from peak to off - season, with cost loosening and a supply - demand surplus, lacking upward momentum [1]. - Iron ore prices will oscillate, and manganese ore prices are expected to decline due to oversupply [1]. - Coke and coking coal are in a relatively oversupplied situation, and it is recommended to take advantage of price rebounds for hedging [1]. Agricultural Products - Brazilian sugar production in the 2025/26 season is expected to reach a record high, but it may be affected by crude oil prices [1]. - Grains are expected to oscillate, and a strategy of buying on dips is recommended considering the tight annual supply - demand situation [1]. - Soybean prices are expected to oscillate due to lack of speculation and market pressure [1]. - Cotton prices are expected to oscillate weakly as the domestic cotton - spinning industry enters the off - season [1]. - Pulp prices will oscillate due to lack of upward momentum after the tariff - related boost [1]. - Livestock prices will oscillate as the pig inventory recovers and the market is in a state of abundant supply expectation [1]. Energy - Crude oil and fuel oil prices are affected by the progress of the Iran nuclear deal and the end of the Sino - US trade negotiation drive [1]. - Asphalt prices will oscillate as cost drags, inventory returns to normal, and demand slowly recovers [1]. - Natural rubber prices are affected by rainfall, cost support, and the end of the trade negotiation drive [1].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish; Arbitrage: On hold [3] 2) Core View of the Report - In the off - season of consumption, the supply and demand of lead may show a pattern of both weakness. Macro uncertainties will also continuously interfere with the trend of non - ferrous metals. It is recommended to conduct sell - hedging operations around 17,200 yuan/ton [3] 3) Summary by Related Content Market News and Important Data - **Spot Market**: On May 8, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was - 16.08 dollars/ton. SMM1 lead ingot spot price increased by 75 yuan/ton to 16,625 yuan/ton. The spot premiums of different regions changed to varying degrees. The lead scrap price differential remained unchanged at - 25 yuan/ton, and the prices of waste batteries also had different changes [1] - **Futures Market**: On May 8, 2025, the SHFE lead main contract opened at 16,720 yuan/ton, closed at 16,775 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 39,686 lots, a decrease of 5,276 lots, and the position was 34,382 lots, a decrease of 2,547 lots. The night - session closed flat with the afternoon session [1] Supply and Demand and Inventory - **Supply and Demand**: The inventory pressure of smelting enterprises in Henan increased, and the price difference between different regions' smelting enterprises and traders widened. Downstream enterprises mainly digested finished product inventories, with poor procurement enthusiasm and light trading in the spot market [2] - **Inventory**: On May 8, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 48,000 tons, an increase of 1,600 tons from last week. As of May 8, the LME lead inventory was 255,150 tons, a decrease of 1,550 tons from the previous trading day [2] Strategy - **Unilateral**: Cautiously bearish, suggesting sell - hedging operations around 17,200 yuan/ton [3] - **Arbitrage**: On hold [3]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue for Q1 2025 was $228.8 million, an 11.4% increase year-over-year, with currency headwinds of approximately 3.3% [6][13] - Adjusted EBITDA was $89.4 million, up approximately 14% year-over-year, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 39.1%, reflecting a 100 basis point increase from the previous year [6][14] - Adjusted EPS was $0.87, a 21% increase year-over-year, driven by strong adjusted EBITDA growth and lower interest expenses [7][14] - Operating cash flows generated were approximately $37.6 million, with liquidity remaining strong at approximately $460 million as of March 31 [7][22] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Merchant Acquiring revenue grew 11% year-over-year to $47.6 million, benefiting from improved spreads and increased sales volumes [8][15] - Payments Puerto Rico revenue increased by 4% to $55.2 million, driven by ATH Mobile and higher POS transaction volumes [9][16] - Latin America Payments and Solutions revenue grew 13% year-over-year to $83.8 million, or 22% in constant currency, with strong organic growth driven by the GETNA Chile relationship [10][18] - Business Solutions revenue increased by 13% to $65.6 million, primarily due to key projects and one-time hardware and software sales [19] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Puerto Rico economy remains stable, with total employment increasing and an unemployment rate around 5.5% [9] - LATAM revenue grew 13% year-over-year, with organic growth driven by initiatives in Brazil and the GETNA Chile relationship [10][18] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company continues to focus on M&A as a key part of its strategy, with a robust pipeline of potential acquisitions [33] - The company is optimistic about its ability to navigate through macroeconomic uncertainties and is closely monitoring potential impacts on its business [26] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted strong consumer confidence contributing to performance across segments, particularly in Merchant Acquiring and Latin America [30] - The company expects constant currency revenue growth for 2025 to be between $903 million to $911 million, representing a growth of 6.8% to 7.7% year-over-year [23] - Management acknowledged potential headwinds from customer attrition, particularly with MercadoLibre, impacting future performance [24] Other Important Information - The company has not seen material disruptions in any business segments but remains cautious about potential indirect impacts from tariffs and economic conditions in the countries served [11][12] - The adjusted effective tax rate for the quarter was 5.3%, aligning with expectations [14] Q&A Session Summary Question: Revenue performance and outperformance relative to expectations - Management indicated that all segments outperformed original expectations, with strong consumer confidence and volume growth contributing to the results [30] Question: M&A strategy and positioning - The company remains focused on M&A, with a robust pipeline and optimism about potential acquisitions [33] Question: Performance in Brazil and relative growth - Management noted that Brazil's growth is back within expectations, driven by leadership changes and specific initiatives [39] Question: Economic conditions in LATAM and potential monitoring - Brazil is highlighted as a significant area to monitor due to currency fluctuations and economic conditions [40] Question: GetNet Chile partnership and its impact - The GetNet partnership is fully rolled out, contributing to strong performance, with over 200,000 active merchants using the technology [49] Question: Merchant margins and future trends - Margins are expected to face pressure moving forward due to the lapping of pricing actions and a decline in average ticket size [56] Question: Impact of MercadoLibre exit on future quarters - The impact of MercadoLibre's exit will not be fully felt until Q3, with partial effects expected in Q2 [58] Question: Benefits from hurricane relief funds in Puerto Rico - Management expects continued flow of relief funds, contributing to economic resilience in Puerto Rico [61]