Economic Performance - In May, industrial added value increased by 5.8% year-on-year, slightly above the consensus forecast of 5.7%[4] - Retail sales of consumer goods grew by 6.4% year-on-year in May, exceeding expectations and up 1.3 percentage points from April[10] - Fixed asset investment showed a cumulative year-on-year growth of 3.7% from January to May, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous period[18] Sector Analysis - Manufacturing investment from January to May rose by 8.5% year-on-year, while real estate investment fell by 10.7%[21] - The cumulative year-on-year decline in real estate new construction area was 22.8%, with completed area down by 17.3%[22] - High-tech industries saw a cumulative year-on-year growth of 9.5% in industrial added value from January to May[6] Policy Implications - The importance of stabilizing domestic demand is emphasized, especially with external uncertainties remaining high[30] - Active fiscal policies are being accelerated, with government bond financing continuing to grow significantly[30] - The government is focusing on measures to stabilize the real estate market and boost consumer spending[30] Risks - Potential risks include a resurgence of global inflation and a faster-than-expected economic slowdown in Europe and the U.S.[30]

Core Viewpoint - Paul Tudor Jones, a legendary investor managing a $16 billion macro hedge fund, predicts a significant depreciation of the US dollar, potentially by 10%, due to substantial cuts in short-term interest rates in the coming year [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - Jones identifies a steepening yield curve as a signal of changing economic structures, indicating that the gap between long-term and short-term interest rates is widening [3]. - Historical data suggests that fluctuations in the yield curve often lead to volatility in the currency market, impacting the value of the dollar as a global reserve currency [3]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Implications - The anticipated adjustment in US monetary policy is seen as a key driver for the dollar's depreciation, with Jones asserting that a significant reduction in short-term rates will diminish the dollar's attractiveness [3][4]. - A potential appointment of a "super dove" as the new Federal Reserve Chair could further exacerbate the situation by promoting loose monetary policies, aligning with Trump's growth agenda [4]. Group 3: Market Reactions - The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index has already declined nearly 8% since 2025, marking the worst start since its inception in 2005, largely attributed to the trade wars initiated by the Trump administration [4]. - Market participants are preparing for further dollar weakness, as options traders actively position themselves for this anticipated decline [5]. Group 4: Broader Economic Impact - A weaker dollar could stimulate US exports, enhancing competitiveness in international markets, but may also lead to higher import prices and inflation domestically [5]. - The depreciation of the dollar is expected to drive capital flows to other countries, potentially causing asset price volatility in emerging markets and affecting international commodity prices [5].

Economic Growth Overview - Australia's GDP grew by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter and 1.3% year-on-year in Q1 2025, showing a decline from the previous quarter's growth of 0.6% [1] - Per capita GDP experienced a negative growth of 0.2% quarter-on-quarter, contrasting with a 0.1% growth in the previous quarter [1] Factors Affecting Economic Performance - Public sector spending has significantly dragged down economic growth, reaching the highest level of detriment since Q3 2017 [1] - Extreme weather events have suppressed domestic final demand and exports, particularly impacting the mining, tourism, and shipping industries [1][2] Consumer and Investment Trends - Household consumption increased by 0.4%, driven mainly by spending on essential items such as food and rent [1] - Private sector investment rose by 0.7%, primarily from residential, new construction, and engineering projects, while public sector investment fell by 2% after reaching a record high in the previous quarter [1] Savings and Income - The household savings rate increased to 5.2%, with disposable income growing by 2.4% [1] Export Challenges - Commodity exports, particularly coal and liquefied natural gas, were negatively impacted by adverse weather affecting production and shipping [2] - The tourism services sector underperformed, with international student numbers growing below average and a decline in per capita spending by students [2] Economic Outlook - Experts suggest that despite the impact of extreme weather, the underlying economic fundamentals remain weak, with low consumer spending and business investment [2] - There is a call for more accommodative monetary policy to stimulate the economy, with potential early initiation of a rate cut cycle if the Reserve Bank of Australia acknowledges the trends of economic slowdown and declining inflation [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of England's MPC member, Taylor, indicates that the risks of a downward economic outlook are increasing, necessitating a shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy. Inflation is not driven by supply and demand pressures [1] Group 1 - Taylor highlights the need for a more lenient monetary policy due to the rising risks associated with the global economic situation [1] - The current inflationary pressures are not attributed to supply and demand dynamics, suggesting other underlying factors at play [1]

Core Viewpoint - The South Korean economy is facing significant challenges, with a government-funded think tank drastically lowering its growth forecast for 2025 to 0.8%, down from a previous estimate of 2% [1][2] Economic Outlook - The Korea Development Institute has cut its economic growth forecast for 2025, reflecting the impact of U.S. tariffs on the trade-dependent nation [1] - The revised forecast is a stark reduction from the earlier prediction of 1.6% made in February [1] Political Context - The economic challenges come at a critical time as South Korea prepares for presidential elections on June 3, with candidates vying to demonstrate their capability to handle the global trade war [1] - Leading candidate Lee Jae-myung of the Democratic Party has a support rate of 49.5%, while his main rival Kim Moon-soo from the People Power Party has 38.2% [1] Trade Relations - The South Korean economy has already shown signs of contraction in the first quarter, indicating that business activity is weakening before exporters fully feel the impact of new U.S. tariffs [2] - South Korea has faced a 25% tariff on key exports such as automobiles, steel, and aluminum, which was temporarily reduced to 10% for 90 days starting in early April [2] Policy Recommendations - The think tank suggests that a loose monetary policy is advisable to mitigate downward price pressures resulting from slowing domestic and foreign demand [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Korea will continue to implement an accommodative monetary policy stance [1] Group 1 - The central bank's decision reflects ongoing economic conditions and aims to support growth [1] - The commitment to a loose monetary policy indicates a focus on stimulating the economy amid potential challenges [1]