编者按：人工智能的发展及其对就业和经济的影响，已成为舆论界、研究领域和决策圈关注的重点。中 国社会科学院学部委员蔡昉近日出版新书《中国就业新趋势：人工智能如何重塑劳动力市场》，作者并 未止步于论述人工智能带给劳动力市场的冲击和机遇，而是借助经济学、社会学、人口学等跨学科方 法，将视野放宽到"人工智能+"民生福祉和新人力资本。其中，作者精炼地指出中国的居民消费率为何 与经济发展水平并不匹配的问题，进一步挖掘出人口结构与消费分布之间的"人口金字塔消费悖论"，对 实现"十五五"时期居民消费率明显提高目标很有启发意义。 蔡昉/文 根据世界银行的数据，2023年中国的居民消费率（居民消费总支出占国内生产总值的比重）为39.1%， 低于高收入国家平均水平（58.7%）、中等偏上收入国家平均水平（47.9%）和世界平均水平 （56.5%）。 关于中国居民消费率低下的问题，在经济学界已经成为一个长期讨论的话题，答案莫衷一是。 蔡昉 著 中信出版集团 2025年10月 如今，中国面临的更为紧迫的课题是，如何在更高的发展阶段顺势而为，在老龄化加深的条件下顶风而 上，抓住机遇显著提高居民消费率、居民消费在"三驾马车"中的比重，以及 ...

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming Central Economic Work Conference is expected to release a more proactive macro policy tone, with a focus on boosting domestic demand as a key area of attention [1] Group 1: Economic Goals and Consumer Rate - The "Suggestions" document includes "significantly improving the resident consumption rate" as a major goal for economic and social development [1] - China's resident consumption rate is projected to be approximately 39.9% of GDP in 2024, significantly lower than the 50%-70% range seen in developed countries [1][5] - A 10 percentage point increase in the resident consumption rate could generate over 10 trillion yuan in economic growth [2][5] Group 2: Structural Shortcomings and Potential Growth - The current resident consumption rate in China is about 40%, which is 10-30 percentage points lower than that of developed countries, particularly in service consumption [5][6] - If the resident consumption rate increases by 10 percentage points, it could lead to a consumption increment of 13.5 trillion yuan, equivalent to 53.2% of the total export value in 2024 [5][6] Group 3: Policy Recommendations and Measures - The "Suggestions" propose various measures to boost consumption, including enhancing public service spending, increasing the supply of quality consumer goods and services, and promoting service consumption [8][11] - Investment in human capital is emphasized as a new development stage, focusing on improving education, social security, and healthcare [8][9] Group 4: Long-term Strategies for Consumption Growth - Experts suggest that enhancing resident consumption rates requires a focus on increasing disposable income, improving social security systems, and fostering a unified national market [12][13] - The government plans to issue special bonds for consumer goods replacement programs, with a scale of 150 billion yuan in 2024, increasing to 300 billion yuan in 2025 [11]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming Central Economic Work Conference is expected to release a more proactive macro policy tone, with a focus on boosting domestic demand as a key area of attention [1] Summary by Sections Economic Policy and Consumer Spending - The "Suggestions" document includes "significantly increasing the resident consumption rate" as a primary goal for economic and social development [1] - The emphasis is on strengthening domestic circulation and enhancing consumption to drive economic growth [1] - China's resident consumption rate is projected to be approximately 39.9% of GDP in 2024, significantly lower than the 50%-70% range seen in developed countries [1][3] Economic Impact of Increased Consumption - A 10 percentage point increase in the resident consumption rate could generate over 10 trillion yuan in economic growth [2] - This increase would expand the domestic circulation scale and improve investment returns, while also driving service consumption and high-tech industry development [2] Structural Shortcomings in Consumption - China's resident consumption rate has remained around 40%, with a notable gap of 10-30 percentage points compared to developed nations [3] - The core shortfall is in service consumption, which is currently at 46.1%, lower than that of developed countries by 6-21 percentage points [3] Investment in Human Capital and Services - The "Suggestions" propose various measures to boost consumption, including increasing public service spending and enhancing residents' consumption capacity [6] - Investment in human capital is emphasized, with a focus on improving education, healthcare, and social security systems to support consumption growth [7][8] Long-term Strategies for Consumption Growth - To enhance consumption, it is essential to increase residents' disposable income and improve the social security system [11] - The government aims to raise the proportion of residents' income in national income distribution and improve labor remuneration [11] Recent Policy Initiatives - The government has introduced policies to stimulate consumption, including a special bond fund of 150 billion yuan for consumer goods replacement in 2024 [9] - Measures to enhance the consumption environment and promote high-quality supply are also being implemented [10]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming Central Economic Work Conference is expected to release a more proactive macro policy tone, with a focus on boosting domestic demand as a key area of attention [1] Group 1: Economic Policy and Consumer Spending - The "Suggestions" document includes "significantly improving the resident consumption rate" as a primary goal for economic and social development [1] - China's resident consumption rate is projected to be approximately 39.9% of GDP in 2024, significantly lower than the 50%-70% range seen in developed countries [1][5] - An increase of 10 percentage points in the resident consumption rate could generate over 10 trillion yuan in economic growth [1][5] Group 2: Structural Challenges and Opportunities - The current resident consumption rate in China is around 40%, which is 10-30 percentage points lower than that of developed countries, particularly in service consumption [5][4] - If the resident consumption rate increases by 10 percentage points, it could lead to a consumption increment of 13.5 trillion yuan, equivalent to 53.2% of the total export value for that year [5] - The increase in consumption is expected to drive production optimization and enhance investment returns, while also pushing for service consumption and new product supply upgrades [2] Group 3: Policy Measures and Strategic Focus - The "Suggestions" propose various measures to boost consumption, including promoting employment, increasing income, and enhancing public service spending [6][10] - Investment in human capital is emphasized as a necessary strategy, with a focus on improving education, healthcare, and social security systems [7][12] - The government plans to enhance consumer confidence and capability through policies that increase disposable income and improve the social safety net [12] Group 4: Long-term Development and Structural Upgrades - The need for a long-term strategy to enhance the resident consumption rate is highlighted, focusing on increasing the share of disposable income in GDP and promoting service sector growth [12] - The "Suggestions" emphasize a three-pronged approach of strengthening guarantees, increasing income, and optimizing supply to solidify the foundation for internal consumption growth [12][8] - The service consumption sector is identified as a significant area for growth, with a focus on improving supply capabilities and service quality [8][9]

Core Viewpoint - The 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China emphasizes the importance of expanding domestic demand as a strategic foundation, integrating investment in goods and people to stimulate new supply and demand, thereby enhancing the internal circulation of the economy [1] Group 1: Investment in People - Increased government spending on education is essential for the comprehensive development of individuals, especially in the context of rapid advancements in artificial intelligence, which poses a challenge to human capital development [2] - The proportion of public education spending relative to GDP should significantly increase to improve human capital and meet the demands of a changing labor market [2] - The government is encouraged to effectively utilize current opportunities to enhance resource allocation in education [2] Group 2: Economic Growth and Human Development - Since the release of the Human Development Index by the United Nations in 1990, China has been the only country to transition from low to high human development levels, currently moving towards extremely high human development [1] - Future improvements in human development levels will rely on health and education, especially as economic growth rates are expected to slow down [1] - It is projected that by 2025, China's per capita GDP will reach $14,000, which is expected to lead to a significant increase in the consumption rate [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the timing for increasing China's consumption rate is gradually approaching, as highlighted in the central government's proposal for the 15th Five-Year Plan, which emphasizes the need for a consumption-driven economic model [1][2][5] - The proposal suggests that improving residents' income is essential for increasing overall consumption, indicating a correlation between economic development and higher consumption levels in more developed provinces [2][5] - There is a significant disparity in average consumption rates across different regions and income levels in China, with some provinces showing higher consumption rates despite similar income levels [5][7] Group 2 - The relationship between rising housing prices and consumer spending is complex, exhibiting both substitution and complementary effects, where rising housing costs can displace spending in other areas [11][13] - The financial sector has a substantial role in promoting increased consumption rates, with recent government initiatives encouraging financial institutions to enhance personal consumption loan offerings [15][20] - The trend of consumer loans in China has seen fluctuations, with a notable peak in 2016, followed by a decline, indicating a potential shift in consumer behavior and financial strategies [15][16] Group 3 - The classification of housing purchases as investments rather than consumption in statistical reports affects the perception of consumer spending, as many households buy homes primarily for self-use [13][21] - The interplay between housing loans and consumer loans is significant, with higher levels of one type of loan impacting the availability of the other, reflecting a balancing act in household financial management [23][24] - As housing prices stabilize, there is potential for increased consumer spending as household debt constraints ease, particularly among groups with higher average consumption tendencies [24]

Group 1: PMI Overview - In November, the manufacturing PMI rebounded slightly to 49.2%, remaining below the expansion threshold and lower than Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 49.4%[2] - The new orders index and production index hit their lowest levels since 2013, excluding 2022, indicating insufficient rebound strength[2] - The manufacturing PMI has been below the expansion threshold for eight consecutive months, marking the longest period of contraction historically[7] Group 2: Demand and Production Insights - The rebound in manufacturing PMI was primarily driven by a recovery in export orders, with the new orders index contributing 60% and the production index contributing 37.5% to the overall PMI increase[7] - The new orders index rose to 49.2%, with new export orders increasing by 1.7 percentage points to 47.6%[7] - Despite improvements in demand, the production index only slightly increased to 50.0%, indicating a lack of robust production growth[7] Group 3: Price Trends - The main raw material purchase price index rose to 53.6%, reaching a five-year high for the same period, while the factory price index increased to 48.2%[7] - The rise in raw material prices suggests that the "anti-involution" policy effects may be becoming evident, potentially leading to a rise in PPI month-on-month[7] Group 4: Policy Outlook - The "14th Five-Year Plan" draft emphasizes increasing household consumption rates and public service spending, indicating that consumption may become a key driver of economic growth next year[2] - The necessity for incremental policy measures is expected to be discussed in the upcoming December Politburo and economic work meetings[2]

Core Viewpoint - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes significantly increasing the resident consumption rate, aiming to enhance domestic demand as a primary driver of economic growth, with specific measures outlined to boost consumption [2][7]. Group 1: Economic Development and Consumption - The "15th Five-Year Plan" proposes a shift towards an economy driven by domestic demand and consumption, highlighting the importance of increasing the resident consumption rate [2][7]. - The current resident consumption rate in China is projected to reach 39.9% by 2024, an increase of 4.3 percentage points since 2012, indicating a growing trend in consumer spending [6]. - Over the past decade, resident consumption expenditure has more than doubled, from 26.7 trillion yuan in 2015 to an expected 53.9 trillion yuan in 2024 [6]. Group 2: Strategies for Increasing Consumption - To achieve the goal of a higher consumption rate, the plan emphasizes optimizing the consumption environment, innovating consumption scenarios, and reducing restrictions [8][10]. - Service consumption is identified as a key area for growth, with predictions that by 2030, service consumption will account for over 50% of total consumption expenditure [9]. - The government aims to enhance consumer experiences by integrating technology and creating new consumption scenarios, such as immersive and interactive environments [9]. Group 3: Policy Measures and Social Impact - The plan stresses the connection between improving people's livelihoods and boosting consumption, indicating that enhancing social welfare is essential for stimulating consumer spending [11]. - Recent policies, such as subsidies for replacing old products, have already benefited over 300 million consumers, demonstrating the effectiveness of targeted consumption incentives [12]. - The government is committed to increasing residents' income and improving social security systems to further support consumption growth [13].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government aims to significantly increase the resident consumption rate as part of the "14th Five-Year Plan," emphasizing the importance of domestic demand and consumption in driving economic growth [4][8]. Group 1: Economic Development Goals - The "14th Five-Year Plan" outlines a clear direction for economic and social development, focusing on enhancing the role of domestic demand and consumption [3][4]. - The plan sets a target for a noticeable increase in the resident consumption rate, which is expected to strengthen the internal driving force of economic growth [4][8]. Group 2: Current Consumption Landscape - China's resident consumption rate is projected to reach 39.9% by 2024, an increase of 4.3 percentage points since 2012 [7]. - Over the past decade, resident consumption expenditure has consistently accounted for around 70% of final consumption expenditure, with a significant increase from 26.74 trillion yuan in 2015 to 53.86 trillion yuan in 2024 [7]. Group 3: Strategies for Increasing Consumption - To achieve the goal of increasing the resident consumption rate, the focus will be on optimizing the consumption environment, innovating consumption scenarios, and reducing restrictions [9][11]. - The service consumption sector is identified as a key area for growth, with a notable increase in the proportion of service consumption expected to reach over 50% by 2030 [10]. Group 4: Policy Implications and Consumer Impact - The government is expected to enhance policies that promote consumer spending, such as subsidies for replacing old products, which have already benefited over 300 million consumers [13]. - There is a strong emphasis on aligning policies that support both consumer spending and improving living standards, with a focus on increasing residents' income and employment opportunities [14].

Core Viewpoint - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes significantly increasing the resident consumption rate, aiming to enhance domestic demand and drive economic growth through consumption [7][8][11]. Group 1: Economic Development and Consumption - The "15th Five-Year Plan" outlines new goals and measures for economic and social development, focusing on increasing the resident consumption rate as a key driver of economic growth [7][8]. - The current resident consumption rate in China is projected to reach 39.9% by 2024, an increase of 4.3 percentage points since 2012, indicating a growing trend in consumer spending [10]. - Over the past decade, total resident consumption expenditure has more than doubled, from 26.74 trillion yuan in 2015 to 53.86 trillion yuan in 2024 [10]. Group 2: Strategies for Increasing Consumption - To achieve the goal of a higher consumption rate, the plan suggests optimizing the consumption environment, innovating consumption scenarios, and reducing restrictions [12][14]. - Service consumption is identified as a critical area for growth, with predictions that the share of service consumption in total consumption will exceed 50% by 2030 [13]. - The government aims to enhance consumer confidence and spending through policies that support the replacement of old goods with new ones, as evidenced by over 3 billion people benefiting from such initiatives [16][17]. Group 3: Social Impact and Policy Measures - The plan highlights the importance of linking consumer spending with improving people's livelihoods, suggesting that enhancing living standards is essential for stimulating consumption [15][17]. - Policies aimed at increasing disposable income and employment are crucial for boosting consumer spending, with a focus on improving social security and public services [17]. - The government is committed to using fiscal measures to support consumption, including tax adjustments and social security enhancements, to create a more favorable environment for consumer spending [17].