本篇评级为★★★，主要围绕以下内容展开： 1、日本事件引发水产板块行情，谨慎操作的抓手或许还是在消费； 2、谷歌迭代大模型，哪些板块受益？ 如有疑问请以音频内容为准，添加妙投小虎哥微信：miaotou515，入群有机会与董小姐进一步交流。 新闻解读评级说明：五星重磅，四星重要，三星级以下大家选择听。 1、日本事件引发水产板块行情，谨慎操作的抓手或许还是在消费 今天三大指数基本收平，市场缺少兴奋点，唯一的话题来自"日本冲突事件"：中方宣布暂停进口日本水 产品，A股渔业、水产养殖板块瞬间拔地而起，多股拉至涨停。类似戏码历史上演过多次——中日关系 一紧张，水产就被制裁，A股便出现"快闪"行情。但持续性永远要打问号：日本对华水产品出口量占中 国总消费比重极低，实质替代效应有限，更多只是资金借题短炒，属于"艺高人胆大"或"火中取栗"行 情。 中日短期缓和概率仍在降低。昨日日方代表来华商谈，双方连握手都未成行，中方随即亮出"水产牌"。 此举精准打击对方且几无自伤，资本市场立刻发酵。游资追逐之下，普通投资者宜保持警惕。下一步值 得想象：中国会否把制裁扩大到日本水果及其他农产品？资本向来喜欢"抢跑"，水果、畜牧、水产等日 常 ...

本文字数：1675，阅读时长大约3分钟 2025.11.19 2020年10月，《中共中央组织部关于改进推动高质量发展的政绩考核的通知》发布，其中明确，高质量 发展综合绩效评价是地方各级党政领导班子和领导干部政绩考核的重要组成部分，要对应创新、协调、 绿色、开放、共享发展要求，精准设置关键性、引领性指标。 而促进消费已成为实现高质量发展的重要方面，改进科学高效的政绩考核体系势在必行。 将居民消费纳入地方政府考核体系，一是要将提升居民消费率落实到考核中。地方政府要持续加大对消 费领域的投入力度，改变固有思维，真正实现"让消费在经济发展中起基础性作用，让投资在经济发展 中起关键性作用"的目标。当消费领域投资逐步扩大时，也就意味着消费领域发展潜力的持续增强。 作者 |一财评论员 日前召开的国务院常务会议研究部署了增强消费品供需适配性进一步促进消费的政策措施。这是持续推 出的促消费系列举措中的一环。 消费是当前驱动经济增长的主要动力，是激发经济活力的关键引擎。党的二十届四中全会审议通过的 《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》明确，要大力提振消费，坚持惠民 生和促消费、投资于物和投资于人紧密结合 ...

如何提高居民消费率？居民消费支出在扩内需当中扮演什么样的角色？未来5年，房地产在拉动经济增 长方面的贡献率是否会提升？接下来，消费、投资和出口在拉动经济增长方面又将分别发挥怎样的作 用？ 围绕上述话题，《每日经济新闻》记者（以下简称NBD）近日对商务部原副部长、中国国际经济交流 中心资深专家咨询委员会委员魏建国进行了独家专访。 魏建国长期从事对外经济贸易工作，积累了丰富的国际谈判经验，曾深度参与中国加入世界贸易组织 （WTO）的谈判过程，并参与了亚投行、粤港澳大湾区、中国自贸区和自贸港等国家重大课题研究。 从"收入端"和"供给端" 提升居民消费率 NBD："十五五"规划建议将高质量发展放在经济社会发展的主要目标的首位，并强调"经济增长保持在 合理区间"。合理区间的范围是多少？这释放出什么样的信号？ 日前，《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》（以下简称"十五五"规划建 议）公布，将"居民消费率明显提高"作为主要目标之一，并围绕扩内需、促消费提出了诸多新提法。 相较于"十四五"规划建议，"十五五"规划建议提出，坚持惠民生和促消费、投资于物和投资于人紧密结 合；合理提高公共服务支出占财政支出 ...

Economic Growth and Development Goals - The "15th Five-Year Plan" aims for a reasonable economic growth rate to achieve a per capita GDP at the level of middle-income countries by 2035, requiring an average annual growth rate of approximately 4.8% during this period [6][10] - The plan emphasizes the importance of improving total factor productivity, increasing the resident consumption rate, and ensuring synchronized growth of resident income and economic growth [6][10] Consumption and Income Distribution - The focus on increasing the resident consumption rate is crucial due to the anticipated challenges from negative population growth and aging demographics, which will impact demand [7][10] - The Gini coefficient of 0.465 indicates a need for improved income distribution, with efforts to ensure that low-income groups see faster income growth compared to high-income groups [7][10][12] Middle-Income Group Expansion - Expanding the middle-income group is essential for achieving higher levels of common prosperity and modernization, necessitating coordinated improvements in initial, secondary, and tertiary income distribution [10][12] - The labor market must address structural unemployment, particularly among the elderly and youth, through targeted training and support [10][11] Role of Artificial Intelligence - Artificial intelligence (AI) has the potential to exacerbate structural employment issues but can also enhance labor productivity, providing solutions to these challenges [15][16] - A systematic governance framework is needed to align AI development with employment priorities, ensuring that AI not only replaces jobs but also enhances worker capabilities [15][16] Urban-Rural Integration and Household Registration Reform - The reform of the household registration system is critical for urbanization, with the potential to convert over 200 million rural residents into urban citizens, thereby stabilizing labor supply and enhancing economic growth [18][19] - The focus should be on improving public services in smaller cities and rural areas to attract and retain residents [19] Agricultural Modernization - China's agricultural labor force still has significant potential for transfer to higher productivity sectors, with current agricultural labor accounting for 22% of the workforce [22][23] - Modern agriculture is characterized by high labor productivity, large operational scales, and the application of advanced technologies, including AI, to enhance efficiency and output [23][24]

21世纪经济报道记者 周潇枭 北京报道党的二十届四中全会审议通过的《中共中央关于制定国民经济和 社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》（下文简称《建议》），对未来五年我国经济社会发展作出系统谋 划和战略部署。 "十五五"是基本实现社会主义现代化的关键五年。到2035年基本实现社会主义现代化，一个重要的标志 性指标是人均GDP达到中等发达国家水平，这要求"十五五"时期经济发展保持适当速度。 《建议》明确提出，经济增长保持在合理区间、全要素生产率稳步提升、居民消费率明显提高、经济增 长潜力得到充分释放、高质量充分就业取得新进展、居民收入增长和经济增长同步、劳动报酬提高和劳 动生产率提高同步、分配结构得到优化、中等收入群体持续扩大、基本公共服务均等化水平明显提升等 重要目标。 （中国社会科学院学部委员蔡昉，受访者供图） 经济增长更大挑战来自需求侧 《21世纪》：2035年要实现人均GDP达到中等发达国家水平，这要求"十五五"时期维持怎样的经济增 速？如何推动全要素生产率的提升？为何要强调提高居民消费率？ 蔡昉：党的二十届四中全会通过的"十五五"规划建议，是从供需两侧来部署的。提高全要素生产率是从 供给侧提出的要求，通过推 ...

Core Points - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes significantly increasing the resident consumption rate as a primary goal, focusing on expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption [1] - The plan proposes a combination of investments in goods and people, increasing public service spending, and removing unreasonable restrictions on consumption in sectors like housing and automobiles [1][4] Economic Growth Targets - The reasonable economic growth rate for China during the "15th Five-Year Plan" is projected to be between 4.5% and 5.5%, considering the large economic base and potential growth rate [4][5] - The plan aims to align with the long-term goal of achieving a per capita GDP comparable to that of moderately developed countries by 2035 [4] Resident Consumption Rate - To address the low resident consumption rate, strategies should focus on expanding the middle-income group and increasing public service spending to enhance consumer confidence [5][6] - New consumption patterns should prioritize human-centered consumption, with a focus on sectors like the silver economy, infant products, and women's economy [6] Role of Real Estate - The real estate market is expected to experience slight growth over the next five years, with its stability being crucial for consumer confidence and financial system stability [7][8] - The removal of unreasonable restrictions on housing and automobiles is aimed at releasing suppressed consumer demand, which is vital for economic growth [7] Consumption, Investment, and Export Dynamics - Consumption is projected to play a dual role as both a "ballast" and a "main engine" for economic growth, with expectations that it will contribute over 60% to GDP growth [12] - Investment will serve as an "incubator" and "accelerator," focusing on optimizing economic structure and transitioning to high-quality development [13] - Exports will act as a "stabilizer," maintaining their importance despite potential fluctuations, supported by China's comprehensive industrial system [12][13] Service Industry Development - The shift in focus towards expanding the service sector reflects a strategic change, with the service industry expected to drive future economic growth and competitiveness [19][20] - The growing middle-income group and the increasing share of services in GDP highlight the need for improved service quality and international engagement in service management [20]

Core Viewpoint - The low consumption rate in China is a multifaceted issue, primarily driven by the low share of household income in the national income distribution, rather than just short-term consumption policies or immediate adjustments to the Gini coefficient [2][4][9]. Group 1: Current Consumption Rate Situation - In 2020, China's household consumption rate was 38.8%, significantly lower than countries with similar GDP per capita, such as Argentina (63%), Poland (53.6%), and the United States (68%) [4][6]. - The final consumption expenditure accounted for 54.3% of GDP in China, while developed countries typically see this figure around 80% [6]. Group 2: Factors Contributing to Low Consumption - The low consumption rate does not equate to insufficient consumption, as China's average annual growth rate of household consumption from 2000 to 2019 was 8.24%, outperforming the U.S. (2.36%) and the Eurozone (1.09%) [7]. - The government consumption in China is relatively high, while household consumption remains low, with service consumption only around 25%, indicating a significant gap compared to other countries [7][8]. - The distribution of national income shows that the household sector accounts for 60.6% of the initial distribution, which is 5.5 percentage points lower than the world average, while the corporate sector is higher than average [8]. Group 3: Recommendations for Improving Consumption - To address the low consumption rate, the government should transition from an investment-oriented to a service-oriented role, enhancing social security systems and providing affordable housing to increase consumer funds [9]. - There is a need for a combination of short-term stimulus and structural reforms to address both immediate consumption gaps and long-term consumption issues [12][13]. - The estimated average consumption gap from 2020 to 2024 is around 6% annually, equating to approximately 2.9 trillion yuan, necessitating targeted policies to fill this gap [13].

Core Viewpoint - The core argument presented by Liu Yuanchun is that China's consumption rate is too low due to high forced savings and a low proportion of household income in GDP, necessitating a change in income distribution to stimulate consumption [1][3][14]. Group 1: Current Consumption Issues - China's final consumption rate is approximately 55%, significantly lower than the 80% typical in developed countries [3]. - The proportion of household consumption in GDP is only 39.9%, compared to 50%-55% in Japan, 64.6% in South Korea, and 68% in the United States [3][14]. - Administrative consumption accounts for 30% of total consumption, while private consumption is below 70%, indicating a structural imbalance [3]. Group 2: Income and Consumption Relationship - Low consumption rates imply low income levels, creating a cyclical relationship where low consumption leads to low income and vice versa [4][5]. - To improve consumption, it is essential to first increase income levels, establishing a positive feedback loop where higher income leads to increased consumption [6][7]. Group 3: Factors Affecting Consumption - The decline in consumption growth is not aligned with GDP growth, indicating insufficient overall demand [7]. - Uncertainty in the economic environment is a significant factor affecting consumption, alongside income issues [8][10]. Group 4: Long-term Solutions - Liu Yuanchun emphasizes the need for a more equitable income distribution to enhance household consumption, as the current distribution favors enterprises and administrative sectors [14][15]. - The household sector's share of national income is only 60.6%, which is 5.5 percentage points lower than the global average, while the enterprise sector's share is disproportionately high at 24.7% [14][16]. Group 5: Short-term Consumption Challenges - Liu identifies seven short-term challenges for consumption, including worsening consumption insufficiency, low consumer confidence, and a decline in household asset values [18]. - The estimated short-term consumption gap is around 6%, amounting to approximately 2.9 trillion yuan, with potential stimulus measures like trade-in subsidies capable of generating about 2 trillion yuan in consumption [18].

Core Viewpoint - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes significantly increasing the resident consumption rate as a primary goal for economic and social development, aiming to enhance domestic demand as a key driver of economic growth [1][2][4]. Economic Growth and Domestic Demand - China has a vast domestic market with substantial growth potential, and domestic demand is crucial for economic development. The retail sales of consumer goods have grown at an average annual rate of 5.5% over the past four years, with service consumption accounting for 46.1% of total consumption [1][2]. - The low resident consumption rate indicates that the advantages of China's large market have not been fully realized, highlighting the need to stimulate domestic demand amid external uncertainties [2][4]. Strategies to Enhance Resident Consumption - To improve the resident consumption rate, it is essential to enhance consumer capacity, innovate consumption scenarios, and optimize the consumption ecosystem. Key measures include stabilizing employment and increasing income, improving income distribution, and expanding the supply of quality goods and services [4][5]. - Strengthening social security and public services can reduce precautionary savings, thereby encouraging consumption [4][5]. Systematic Policy Framework - A systematic policy framework is proposed to enhance the resident consumption rate, which includes optimizing government expenditure structure and reinforcing institutional guarantees to activate the domestic market [7][8]. - The construction of a unified national market is essential, requiring the elimination of local protectionism and market segmentation, while enhancing investment in human capital and public services [7][8]. Long-term Mechanisms and Innovation - Establishing long-term mechanisms to expand consumption is vital, with a focus on technological innovation to drive new productive forces and build a modern industrial system [8]. - Continuous reforms and opening up are necessary to activate endogenous growth dynamics and ensure sustainable economic growth [8].

"明显提高"，意味着要达到多少？ "消费率低并不等于消费不足，二者是两个问题。"上海财经大学校长刘元春表示。 11月6日举行的第八届虹桥国际经济论坛"提振消费：世界共享中国市场机遇"分论坛上，刘元春表示，中国消费率低，到底是一个短期问题还是一个中期、 长期问题，很多人不太清楚。但如果没有认识清楚，就很难进行政策设计。 《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》提出了"十五五"时期经济社会发展的主要目标，其中之一，是居民消费率明显提高。 所谓居民消费率，是指居民消费支出/支出法GDP。刘元春援引数据显示，2020年，我国居民消费率为38.8%，低于同等人均GDP水平下的阿根廷（63%）、 波兰（53.6%）、西班牙（51%）、泰国（48.5%），更低于美国（68%）、英国（64%）等国家。 居民消费率要"明显提高"，意味着要达到多少？刘元春认为，消费率、投资率的转变需要依据净出口率的变化，宏观动态平衡依然是判断最优消费率的可信 性依据。 上海财经大学校长刘元春 居民消费率为何低？ 当前，中国的消费率低是一个既定事实。数据显示，2020年我国最终消费支出占GDP的比重为54.3%，而一般发达国家 ...