Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - For Treasury bonds, expect increased volatility and remain cautious [6][7] - For stock indices, be optimistic about the long - term performance and wait for opportunities to go long [10][11] - For precious metals, the medium - to - long - term upward logic remains strong, and previous long positions can be held [12][13][14] - For rebar and hot - rolled coils, investors can look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds and participate with a light position [15][16] - For iron ore, investors can look for buying opportunities at low levels, and participate with a light position [17][18][19] - For coking coal and coke, investors can look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds and participate with a light position [20][21] - For ferroalloys, consider manganese silicon out - of - the - money call options at low levels and short - covering opportunities for silicon iron at the bottom, or consider out - of - the - money call options at low levels if there are large spot losses [22][23] - For crude oil, consider a long - biased operation on the main contract [24][25][26] - For fuel oil, consider a long - biased operation on the main contract [27][28][29] - For synthetic rubber, expect weak oscillations [30][31] - For natural rubber, expect weak oscillations [32][33] - For PVC, expect bottom oscillations [34][35][37] - For urea, expect short - term weakness [38][39] - For p - xylene (PX), expect low - level oscillations following the cost side, and operate with caution [40][41] - For PTA, expect bottom oscillations, and participate with caution [42] - For ethylene glycol, expect bottom oscillations, and participate with caution [43][44] - For staple fiber, expect bottom adjustments following the cost side, and participate with caution [45] - For bottle chips, expect low - level oscillations following the cost side, and pay attention to cost price changes [46][47] - For soda ash, expect short - term weakness [48] - For glass, expect a weak market sentiment [49] - For caustic soda, price fluctuations depend on supply - demand games, and beware of premature market movements [50][51] - For pulp, expect a weak and low - level repeated oscillation [52] - For lithium carbonate, expect a weak operation [53] - For copper, consider a long - biased operation on the main contract [54][55] - For tin, expect price oscillations, control risks in the short term, and wait for the release of risk sentiment [56] - For nickel, control risks in the short term, and wait for the macro sentiment to stabilize [57] - For industrial silicon and polysilicon, consider short - selling at high levels on rebounds [58][59][60] - For soybean oil and soybean meal, remain on the sidelines for soybean meal; for soybean oil, consider out - of - the - money call options at the bottom support range [61][62] - For palm oil, remain on the sidelines for now [63][64] - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, consider the opportunity to widen the spread after the soybean - rapeseed spread narrows [65][66] - For cotton, wait to short sell the far - month contract at high prices after a rebound [67][68][69] - For sugar, remain on the sidelines [71][73][74] - For apples, consider going long at low prices after a pullback [76][77] - For live pigs, consider short - selling opportunities at high prices [78][79][80] - For eggs, wait for the release of the current market sentiment [81][82] - For corn, remain on the sidelines for now [83][84] - For logs, beware of a rapid decline if the reality is weaker than expected [85][86] Summary by Directory Treasury Bonds - The previous trading day saw a differentiated close of Treasury bond futures, with the 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts having different price changes. The central bank conducted 250.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net investment of 222 billion yuan [5] - The external environment is favorable for Treasury bond futures, but yields are relatively low. China's economy shows a stable recovery trend, and it is advisable to remain cautious [6] Stock Indices - The previous trading day saw slight oscillations in stock index futures, with different changes in the main contracts of various indices [8][9] - The first - quarter fiscal revenue decreased by 1.1% year - on - year, and expenditure increased by 4.2%. In March, total social power consumption increased by 4.8% year - on - year [9] - Although there are concerns about corporate profit growth and global recession, domestic asset valuations are low, and policies have hedging space. Be optimistic about the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets [10] Precious Metals - The previous trading day saw gold and silver main contracts with different price changes. The complex global trade and financial environment, potential monetary policy easing, and other factors are expected to drive up the price of gold [12] - Be optimistic about the long - term value of gold, and previous long positions can be held [13] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - The previous trading day saw a slight correction in rebar and hot - rolled coil futures. The real - estate industry's downturn suppresses rebar prices, but the peak - season demand may provide short - term support. Hot - rolled coils may follow a similar trend. Steel prices are at a low valuation, and the downward space may be limited [15] Iron Ore - The previous trading day saw a slight correction in iron ore futures. The increase in iron ore demand and the decrease in imports and port inventory support the price. The valuation is relatively high among black - series products. Consider buying at low levels [17][18] Coking Coal and Coke - The previous trading day saw weak oscillations in coking coal and coke futures. The supply of coking coal is loose, and the transaction atmosphere has weakened. The shipment of coke has improved, but the possibility of further price increases is low. Consider short - selling on rebounds [20] Ferroalloys - The previous trading day saw slight declines in the main contracts of manganese silicon and silicon iron. The supply of manganese ore may be disturbed, and the demand for ferroalloys is weak while the supply is relatively high. Consider options opportunities based on different situations [22][23] Crude Oil - The previous trading day saw INE crude oil rise and then fall. Speculators increased their net long positions in US crude oil futures. The number of US oil and gas rigs decreased, and OPEC deepened its production - cut agreement. Consider a long - biased operation [24][25][26] Fuel Oil - The previous trading day saw fuel oil rise and then fall. Asian fuel oil demand is unlikely to increase sharply. The sales of marine fuel oil in the UAE's Fujairah Port recovered in March. Consider a long - biased operation as the market may be oscillating upward [27][28][29] Synthetic Rubber - The previous trading day saw a decline in the main contract of synthetic rubber. Supply pressure persists, demand improvement is limited, and it may maintain weak oscillations [30] Natural Rubber - The previous trading day saw different price changes in the main contracts of natural rubber and 20 - number rubber. Global supply is expected to increase, demand is affected by tariffs, and it may maintain weak oscillations [32] PVC - The previous trading day saw a decline in the main contract of PVC. Supply pressure eases marginally, demand recovers weakly, and it may oscillate at the bottom [34][35][37] Urea - The previous trading day saw an increase in the main contract of urea. In the short term, it may oscillate weakly. Agricultural demand is in a lull, and new production capacity is being released [38] P - Xylene (PX) - The previous trading day saw an increase in the PX2509 main contract. PX装置 maintenance and downstream PTA load reduction. It is expected to oscillate at a low level following the cost side [40][41] PTA - The previous trading day saw an increase in the PTA2509 main contract. Supply and demand fundamentals have few contradictions, and it may oscillate at the bottom [42] Ethylene Glycol - The previous trading day saw a decline in the main contract of ethylene glycol. Supply improves due to coal - based plant maintenance, but demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate at the bottom [43][44] Staple Fiber - The previous trading day saw a decline in the staple fiber 2506 main contract. Downstream demand is weak, and it may adjust at the bottom following the cost side [45] Bottle Chips - The previous trading day saw an increase in the bottle chips 2506 main contract. Raw material prices fluctuate, and it is expected to oscillate at a low level following the cost side [46][47] Soda Ash - The previous trading day saw a decline in the main 2509 contract of soda ash. Production and inventory are at high levels, and the market may remain weak in the short term [48] Glass - The previous trading day saw a significant decline in the main 2509 contract of glass. A production line changed its product type. Production lines are at a low level, and inventory changes little. The market sentiment is weak [49] Caustic Soda - The previous trading day saw a slight increase in the main 2505 contract of caustic soda. Production decreased last week, and demand has slightly improved. Price fluctuations depend on supply - demand games [50][51] Pulp - The previous trading day saw a decline in the main 2507 contract of pulp. Port inventory increased slightly, and downstream开工 rates varied. The market is expected to oscillate at a low level [52] Lithium Carbonate - The previous trading day saw a decline in the main contract of lithium carbonate. The trade tariff event affects demand, and supply remains high. It is expected to operate weakly [53] Copper - The previous trading day saw an upward oscillation in Shanghai copper. The price increased, and the spot market had limited supply. Consider a long - biased operation [54] Tin - The previous trading day saw an increase in tin prices. The Bisie tin mine may resume operation, and Indonesian mining costs have increased. Consumption data is good, and prices are expected to oscillate [56] Nickel - The previous trading day saw a decline in nickel prices. The US tariff event has a negative impact on the market. Supply is tightened, and cost support is strong, but demand may weaken in the off - season [57] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - The previous trading day saw a significant decline in the prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon. Supply and demand are imbalanced, and prices are expected to continue to bottom - out [58][59] Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - The previous trading day saw declines in soybean meal and soybean oil main contracts. Brazilian soybean production is high, and domestic supply is abundant. Consider different strategies for soybean oil and soybean meal [61][62] Palm Oil - Malaysian palm oil had a slight decline. Domestic imports decreased, and inventory is at a low level. Remain on the sidelines for now [63][64] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed exports decreased. China has imposed tariffs on Canadian products, and domestic inventories are at high levels. Consider the opportunity to widen the spread [65][66] Cotton - The previous trading day saw a weak oscillation in domestic cotton. US cotton export sales increased, and the planting rate is lower than in previous years. Textile exports are affected by tariffs, and domestic demand is weak. Consider short - selling the far - month contract at high prices [67][68][69] Sugar - The previous trading day saw a strong oscillation in domestic sugar. Brazilian sugar production increased, and Indian sugar production was lower than expected. Domestic inventory is neutral, and it is advisable to remain on the sidelines [71][73][74] Apples - The previous trading day saw apple futures rise and then fall. Cold - storage inventory decreased rapidly, and the market sales are good. Consider going long at low prices after a pullback [76][77] Live Pigs - The previous day saw a slight decline in the national average price of live pigs. Demand is weak, and the supply pressure is increasing. Consider short - selling opportunities at high prices [78][79][80] Eggs - The previous trading day saw an increase in the average price of eggs in the main production areas. Egg production capacity is increasing, and consider waiting for the release of market sentiment [81][82] Corn - The previous trading day saw a decline in the corn main contract. The sales of the current season are almost over, and port inventory is high. Supply pressure exists in the short term, and consumption is slightly increasing. Remain on the sidelines for now [83][84] Logs - The previous trading day saw a decline in the main 2507 contract of logs. A tropical cyclone may affect shipments. Inventory is relatively neutral, and beware of a rapid decline [85][86]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform the Market" rating to the company for the first time [5][36][37] Core Views - The company is a leading state-owned enterprise with a strong market position, focusing on development, asset operation, and property services, with a stable shareholding structure [1][8][10] - The company has faced short-term pressure on performance, with a significant decline in net profit due to increased impairment provisions and a decrease in gross profit margin [1][15] - Despite a challenging market environment, the company is expected to stabilize and recover as high land cost, low margin projects are completed [3][36] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 178.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2%, but net profit fell by 36% to 4 billion yuan due to 6 billion yuan in impairment provisions [1][15] - The gross profit margin for the company was 15.6%, down 1.5 percentage points year-on-year [1][15] - The company plans to distribute a dividend of 0.19 yuan per share, corresponding to a payout ratio of approximately 43% [1][15] Sales and Development - The company maintained a sales amount of 219.3 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 25% year-on-year, while the sales area dropped by 24% [2][20] - The company acquired 26 land parcels in 2024, with a total planned construction area of approximately 2.25 million square meters and a total land cost of about 48.6 billion yuan [2][20] Financial Health - As of the end of 2024, the company had a debt-to-asset ratio of 62% and a net debt ratio of 56%, maintaining a healthy financial position [22] - The company's comprehensive financing cost was 2.99%, reduced by 48 basis points from the beginning of the year, indicating a strong financing advantage [22] Profit Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 161.8 billion yuan, 153 billion yuan, and 156.9 billion yuan in 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with net profits of 4.1 billion yuan for each of those years [3][24][28] - The report anticipates a gradual recovery in performance as the company completes its low-margin projects and stabilizes its financials [3][36] Valuation - The absolute valuation estimates the company's per-share value at 11.38 yuan, indicating a potential upside of 20% from the current share price [31][35] - Relative valuation shows that the company's 2025 dynamic PE is 17.2, which is at a premium compared to comparable companies with an average PE of 12.5 [36]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform the Market" rating to the company, indicating an expected performance that exceeds the market index by more than 10% [5][36][37]. Core Views - The company is a leading state-owned enterprise with a strong market position, focusing on development, asset operation, and property services, with a stable shareholding structure [1][8][10]. - Despite a 36% decline in net profit year-on-year for 2024, the company has adequately provisioned for asset and credit impairments, which totaled approximately 6 billion yuan, reflecting a 150% increase from the previous year [1][15]. - The company maintains a healthy financial status with a debt-to-asset ratio of 62% and a net debt ratio of 56%, consistently staying within the green zone of the "three red lines" policy [22]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved an operating revenue of 178.9 billion yuan, a 2% increase year-on-year, while net profit was 4 billion yuan, down 36% [1][4][15]. - The gross profit margin for the company was reported at 15.6%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points compared to the previous year [1][15]. Sales and Development - The company recorded a sales amount of 219.3 billion yuan in 2024, a 25% decrease year-on-year, while the sales area fell by 24% [2][20]. - The company acquired 26 land parcels in 2024, with a total planned construction area of approximately 2.25 million square meters and a total land cost of about 48.6 billion yuan [2][20]. Financial Health and Cost of Capital - The company has a comprehensive financing cost of 2.99%, which is 48 basis points lower than the beginning of the year, maintaining an industry-leading level [22]. - The company successfully secured 9.2 billion yuan in operational property loans and raised 15.5 billion yuan in public market financing, with the lowest coupon rates in the industry [22]. Profit Forecast - The company is expected to generate revenues of 161.8 billion yuan, 153 billion yuan, and 156.9 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with net profits projected at 4.1 billion yuan for each of those years [3][28][31]. - The report anticipates a gradual recovery in performance as high land cost, low margin projects are completed, leading to a stabilization in earnings [3][36]. Valuation - The absolute valuation estimates the company's per-share value at 11.38 yuan, indicating a potential upside of 20% from the current share price [31][35]. - Relative valuation suggests that the company's valuation is comparable to peer companies, with a 2025 dynamic PE ratio of 17.2, which reflects a premium due to the quality of land and strong financing background [36].

龙湖资料图。 标普惠誉为何先后下调龙湖评级？ 王琳 风云变幻的房地产市场中，曾经的房企优等生也难以独善其身。 3月7日，龙湖集团发布盈利警告公告，2024年，龙湖集团剔除投资物业及其他衍生金融工具 公平值变动影响后的股东应占核心溢利预计录得约35%至40%的下降，2023年这一数据是 113.5亿元，照此计算，2024年这一数据预计为68.1亿元至73.8亿元。 对于下降原因，龙湖集团称，主要由于受房地产行业下行的影响，公司地产开发业务的结算 收入及结算毛利率下降所致。 在此之前的3月5日，标普将龙湖集团的长期发行人信用评级从"BB+"下调至"BB"，同时，标 普将该公司的高级无抵押票据的长期发行评级从"BB"下调至"BB-"。2024年10月，惠誉将龙 湖集团的长期外币发行人违约评级(IDR)、高级无抵押评级及其未偿高级票据评级从"BB+"下 调至"BB"，对IDR的展望为负面。 评级下调反映了评级机构对龙湖集团未来偿债能力和运营状况的担忧，可能进一步增加其融 资成本与市场压力。在房地产行业的下行大势中，龙湖集团努力通过多元化业务布局和降杠 杆策略来应对挑战，尽管相对稳健，但仍难以完全抵御行业整体下滑带来的 ...