Market Analysis - A-shares are experiencing a significant index trend, attracting short-term capital as investors do not want to "miss out" [2] - The external market is focused on two main issues: the conflicting signals regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and the escalating trade tariffs, both of which are expected to influence the third quarter's market trends and fourth quarter policy changes [2] - The military industry is entering an upward cycle, with expectations for a turning point in orders by 2025, driven by new technologies and military trade opportunities [2][14] Sector Performance - The military sector continues to show strength, with companies like Guojijiangong and Changcheng Military Industry achieving consecutive gains and setting historical highs [3] - The baby and child concept stocks are gaining traction, supported by government policies promoting free preschool education starting in 2025 [3] - The PEEK materials sector remains active, with companies like Zhongxin Fluorine Materials and Xinhan New Materials seeing significant price increases [4] Investment Trends - International capital is increasingly allocating assets to Chinese stocks, with nearly 60% of sovereign wealth funds prioritizing China as an investment market [13] - The military trade sector is expected to see a strong demand-supply resonance due to global geopolitical changes, enhancing the overall valuation of the military industry [14] - The military industry is anticipated to enter a new growth cycle, with the "14th Five-Year Plan" entering a critical phase, supported by various factors including policy and technology [15]

Group 1 - The military industry sector continues to strengthen, with the aerospace ETF (159277) rising by 2.44% and a trading volume of 141 million yuan, leading its category [1] - Key stocks such as Great Wall Military Industry and Inner Mongolia First Machinery Group have shown significant gains, with Great Wall Military Industry hitting the daily limit and Inner Mongolia First Machinery Group rising over 8% [1] - The ongoing escalation of geopolitical conflicts and the continuous increase in global military spending highlight the technological advantages of Chinese military enterprises in areas like drones, fighter jets, and missiles, making the aerospace sector a core beneficiary [1] Group 2 - The aerospace ETF (159277) closely tracks the National Aerospace Index, focusing on the core track of China's military industry and strategically positioning itself in cutting-edge aerospace technologies [1] - The index covers critical industry chain segments such as aviation equipment, aerospace equipment, satellite navigation, and new materials, aligning with national defense modernization and high-end equipment upgrade strategies [1] - The component stocks are selected from leading enterprises in the military sector, encompassing emerging fields like large aircraft manufacturing, low-altitude economy, and commercial aerospace, capturing the rapid development of national defense technology [1] Group 3 - According to Zhongyou Securities, by 2025, the military industry is expected to see a turning point in orders as the "Centenary of the Army Building" goal enters its second half, with new technologies aimed at improving equipment performance or reducing costs [1] - New products representing new domains and new types of combat forces, along with military trade and military technology transformation, are anticipated to create new market directions with greater elasticity [1] - The recommendation is to focus on the aerospace main line as the military industry evolves [1]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform" [2] Core Insights - As of July 20, 2025, among the 120 tracked defense industry listed companies, 37 have disclosed their H1 2025 earnings forecasts, with significant growth in the shipbuilding and defense information sectors [5][12] - The defense information sector shows high growth potential, with companies like Gaode Infrared and Chengchang Technology forecasting net profit growth rates of 846% and 335% respectively [6][12] - The shipbuilding sector also demonstrates strong performance, with companies such as China Shipbuilding and China Heavy Industry predicting net profit growth rates of 109% and 105% respectively [6][12] - The report suggests that the defense industry is expected to see an inflection point in orders, driven by new technologies and products aimed at enhancing equipment performance and reducing costs [14] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The closing index for the defense industry is at 1669.63, with a 52-week high of 1712.48 and a low of 1113.62 [2] Performance Analysis - The defense sector index has outperformed the broader market, with a 2.58% increase in the China Securities Defense Index and a 2.26% increase in the Shenwan Defense Index [15] - The top-performing stocks in the defense sector this week include Yingliu Co. (+20.37%) and Feiliwa (+15.98%) [18] Earnings Forecasts - Among the 37 companies that disclosed earnings forecasts, 14 expect positive growth, while 12 anticipate losses [12] - Notable companies with high growth forecasts include Nairui Radar, Gaode Infrared, and China Heavy Industry, all projecting substantial increases in net profits [6][12] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on two main investment themes: aerospace and new technologies/products with greater elasticity [14] - Suggested companies for investment include Feiliwa, Gaode Infrared, and China Shipbuilding among others [14] Valuation Metrics - As of July 18, 2025, the defense sector's PE-TTM valuation stands at 117.29, with 83.01% of historical data indicating lower valuations [20][22]

Core Viewpoint - The military industry is expected to experience a turning point in orders as the "centenary goal of military building" enters its second half, with new technologies and products driving market directions and potential growth [4]. Group 1: Market Performance - On July 15, the three major indices showed mixed results, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.42%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.56% and the ChiNext Index increased by 1.73% [1]. - The aerospace sector experienced a short-term correction, with the National Aerospace Index declining by 0.70%, where 11 stocks rose and 39 fell [1]. - The Aviation and Aerospace ETF (159227) fell by 0.82%, closing at 1.091 yuan, with a trading volume of 99.83 million yuan and a total scale of 570 million yuan, ranking first among ETFs [1]. Group 2: Industry Events - The 12th Aviation Power and Gas Turbine Conference is scheduled to take place in Shanghai from July 16 to 18 [2]. - The Tianzhou-9 cargo spacecraft successfully completed its launch on July 15, marking a significant achievement in China's space endeavors [2]. - Uzbekistan is reportedly finalizing a deal to purchase the JF-17 "Thunder" fighter jets, which would make it the fourth export customer for this aircraft, enhancing China's military trade system [2]. - A space-themed park is set to be constructed in Shanghai, integrating aerospace technology with cultural tourism [2]. Group 3: Institutional Insights - Zhongyou Securities anticipates that the military industry will see a turning point in orders, driven by new technologies and market directions [4]. - Northeast Securities notes that the military industry is experiencing a recovery in downstream demand, with clear long-term goals set for 2035 and 2050, indicating a positive outlook for the defense sector [4]. Group 4: Related Products - The Aviation and Aerospace ETF (159227) closely tracks the National Aerospace Index, focusing on core military aerospace sectors, with a high concentration of 98.2% in the primary military industry [5]. - The ETF is considered an efficient tool for investing in leading "fighter jet stocks," with a significant weight of 66.5% in aerospace equipment within its constituent stocks [5].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2] Core Viewpoints - A military parade will be held on September 3, showcasing both traditional main battle forces and new domain capabilities, reflecting the modernization of the military [12][13] - The military industry is expected to see a turning point in orders in 2025, driven by new technologies and products aimed at enhancing equipment performance and reducing costs [20] - Investment recommendations focus on two main lines: aerospace and "gap-filling" new focuses, and new technologies, products, and markets with greater elasticity [20] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The closing index for the military industry is 1596.82, with a 52-week high of 1712.48 and a low of 1113.62 [2] Market Performance - The military sector index increased by 6.23%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which rose by 1.91% [22] - The top ten performing stocks in the military sector this week include Changcheng Military Industry (+43.85%) and Zhongke Haixun (+34.89%) [24] Valuation Levels - As of June 27, 2025, the military sector's PE-TTM valuation is 110.98, with 81.19% of the time since January 1, 2014, the PE-TTM valuation has been lower than the current level [26][29] Investment Suggestions - Suggested stocks for the aerospace main line include Feilihua, Fenghuo Electronics, and AVIC Shenyang Aircraft [20] - New technology and market opportunities include companies like Aerospace Zhizao and Guangdong Hongda [20]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the defense and military industry [6] Core Viewpoints - The grand military parade on September 3 will showcase new generation equipment and new combat forces, emphasizing the importance of unmanned intelligent systems, underwater operations, electronic warfare, and hypersonic technologies [9][22] - The appointment of Zhang Yujin as the new chairman of China Aviation Engine Group is expected to accelerate procurement and capital operations within the industry, indicating a turning point for the aviation engine sector [12][23] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The defense and military industry consists of 143 listed companies with a total market value of 26,967.47 billion and a circulating market value of 22,823.81 billion [3] Market Performance - The defense and military index rose by 6.90%, outperforming other major indices, with a current PE(TTM) of 68.4 times [8][42][48] Key Developments - The establishment of a joint laboratory for key vacuum measurement devices in nuclear fusion aims to promote independent innovation in this field [14][31] - The revision of the civil aviation law focuses on the development of the low-altitude economy and passenger rights [15][32] - The successful test of the second-stage propulsion system of the LQ-2 liquid launch vehicle marks a significant step towards enhancing China's capabilities in commercial space [17][37] Recommendations - Suggested companies to watch include: - Military electronics: Zhenhua Technology, Hongyuan Electronics, Huada Electronics [26] - Missile industry chain: Tianqin Equipment, Zhimin Technology [26] - Domestic engines: Aero Engine Corporation of China, Aero Engine Control [27] - New domains: Satellite internet and low-altitude economy companies [28]

Market Performance - The military sector has shown strong performance for two consecutive days, with stocks like North Navigation, Guorui Technology, and Wanlima experiencing significant gains, including multiple stocks hitting the daily limit up [1][2] - Notable stocks include Changcheng Military Industry with a 9.99% increase, Wanlima with a 20.05% increase, and Hunan Tianyan with a 9.97% increase [3] Events - A major military parade is scheduled for September 3, showcasing domestically produced military equipment, including new-generation traditional weapons and advanced combat capabilities [4] - NATO has announced plans to increase military spending to 5% of GDP by 2035, indicating a significant shift in defense budgets [4] Institutional Insights - The upcoming military parade is seen as a strategic declaration of China's military capabilities and a driver for the military industry, emphasizing "domestication," "new quality," and "systematization" as key trends [4] - The military industry is expected to benefit from global military development changes and internal growth driven by strong planning, amidst increasing geopolitical tensions [4] - Historical trends indicate that significant market movements in the military sector have been driven by asset restructuring and large contracts, with expectations for continued restructuring in 2025 [4] - Global military spending is projected to reach $27.18 billion in 2024, marking a 9.4% increase from 2023, the largest annual growth since the Cold War [4][5]

Group 1 - The aerospace and defense industry index (CN5082) has seen a strong increase of 1.64% as of June 26, 2025, with notable stock performances including Beifang Navigation (600435) up by 10.01%, Construction Industry (002265) up by 10.00%, and Changcheng Military Industry (601606) up by 9.99% [1] - The Aerospace ETF Tianhong (159241) rose by 1.50%, with a latest price of 1.09 yuan and a trading volume of 5.4997 million yuan, indicating significant capital inflow of 13.4078 million yuan over the past five trading days [1] - A recent press conference announced a grand ceremony on September 3 to commemorate the 80th anniversary of the victory in the Chinese People's Anti-Japanese War and the World Anti-Fascist War, which includes a military parade [1] Group 2 - The military parade will showcase new-generation traditional weaponry alongside new combat forces such as unmanned systems, underwater operations, cyber warfare, and hypersonic capabilities, reflecting the military's adaptation to technological advancements and evolving warfare [2] - High-level leadership emphasized the importance of integrating new production capabilities with new combat capabilities, indicating a strategic direction for the military's capability building and the core driving force for the defense industry [2] - Key themes for understanding the current and future development trends of China's military industry include "domestication," "new quality," and "systematization," with a focus on "new domain new quality combat forces" as a priority for future defense research and equipment procurement [2] Group 3 - The Aerospace ETF Tianhong (159241) closely tracks the national aerospace index, with a high weight of 96% in the defense and military industry, making it one of the purest military-themed ETFs in the market [2] - The ETF's constituent stocks are heavily focused on aerospace capabilities, with over 80% representation in segments such as domestic large aircraft and drones [2] - A table of stock performance shows various companies in the aerospace sector, with notable increases in stock prices, such as Zhongbing Hongjian (000519) up by 7.34% [4]

Core Viewpoint - The defense and military industry ETF (512810) is experiencing strong upward momentum, driven by market speculation surrounding the upcoming military parade and the strategic importance of the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1][3][5]. Group 1: ETF Performance - The defense military ETF (512810) opened high and rose by 1.58%, marking a potential four-day winning streak with trading volume surpassing 40 million yuan [1]. - Over 60 out of 80 constituent stocks of the ETF are in the green, with notable performances from North Navigation, Construction Industry, and Great Wall Military, the latter achieving an impressive 7 out of 6 consecutive trading days of gains [1][5]. - The ETF has recently undergone a split to lower its net asset value, reducing the trading threshold from approximately 120 yuan to around 60 yuan, making it more accessible for investors [4]. Group 2: Market Trends and Drivers - The recent surge in the defense and military sector is attributed to the anticipation of the September 3 military parade, which historically has led to bullish trends in the sector [1][3]. - The military parade is expected to showcase domestic military capabilities and innovations, potentially enhancing China's military trade and positioning in the global market [3]. - The focus on new domains and quality in military capabilities is likely to drive future research and procurement in the defense sector, indicating a shift towards more advanced technologies [3]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The defense military ETF (512810) serves as an efficient tool for investors looking to gain exposure to both traditional and emerging military capabilities, while also being a financing and interconnectivity target [4]. - The influx of over 40 billion yuan in main funds within the first 20 minutes of trading indicates strong investor interest and confidence in the sector [5].

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a significant rally, with the ChiNext Index rising by 1.34%, driven by strong performances in the military and diversified financial sectors [1] - Northbound capital saw a substantial inflow of 8.1 billion yuan, indicating increased foreign interest in A-shares [1] External Market Influence - U.S. stock markets rose over 1%, with the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index increasing by 3.31%, positively impacting A-shares [3] - The easing of tensions in the Middle East and a 6% drop in international oil prices contributed to a more favorable market environment [3] Technical Analysis - The ChiNext Index broke through the critical resistance level of 2050 points, indicating a strong upward momentum [3] - The Shanghai Composite Index showed potential to challenge the 3450-point mark, contingent on volume support [3] Capital Flow - Northbound funds were actively purchasing, with over 4 billion yuan each in both the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock connects, reflecting foreign optimism towards A-shares [4] - Domestic capital showed a net outflow overall, but focused on military, financial, and solid-state battery sectors [4] Sector Performance - The military sector saw significant gains, with over ten stocks hitting the daily limit, supported by a 7.2% increase in defense budgets and geopolitical risk hedging [4] - The financial sector's surge was attributed to favorable policies announced at the Lujiazui Forum, including the establishment of a digital RMB international operation center in Shanghai [4] - The solid-state battery sector is gaining traction, with companies like Xiangtan Electrochemical achieving five consecutive trading limits, driven by advancements in technology and upcoming production milestones [5] Underperforming Sectors - The oil and gas extraction sector faced declines, with companies like Zhun Oil Co. hitting the daily limit down, linked to the drop in international oil prices [6] - The port shipping and film industry are also experiencing adjustments due to economic cycles and market capital flow [6] - The liquor sector remains sluggish, with prices for premium products like Moutai dropping significantly due to seasonal consumption declines and industry de-financialization [6] Investment Strategy - For long-term investors, the military and financial sectors present ongoing opportunities, particularly in military stocks supported by policy and earnings expectations [6] - Caution is advised in the solid-state battery sector due to high short-term volatility, emphasizing the need to identify companies with genuine technological breakthroughs [6] - The ChiNext Index's ability to maintain above 2100 points could lead to a challenge of 2200 points, with a focus on technology and new energy sectors [6]