2026年01月06日 证券研究报告 | 商业航天深度报告 技术收敛引爆"奇点"，蓝海市场破晓已至 核心驱动力：四大技术收敛引发"成本革命"。本轮爆发的本质不是单一技术的突破，而是运载、制造、载荷、动力四大维度的技术"收敛"，共同推动了成本的指数 级下降。1）运载端（复用）： 垂直回收（VTVL）技术将火箭从"一次性耗材"变为"可复用资产"。发射成本正从航天飞机时代的5万美元/kg，向猎鹰9号的3000美 元/kg，乃至星舰目标的200美元/kg演进 ；2）动力端：液氧甲烷正在取代液氧煤油成为下一代黄金燃料。其不结焦、成本低、易获取的特性，解决了发动机复用后的 维护痛点，是实现高频次发射的物理基础 ；3）制造端（工业化）： 3D打印（增材制造）与车规级材料的应用，使火箭发动机部件减少90%，制造周期从月缩短至周， 实现了像造汽车一样造火箭 ；4）载荷端： 工业级/消费级元器件（COTS）通过软件冗余架构替代昂贵的宇航级芯片，摩尔定律终"上天"，单星造价从数亿元降至千 万元级别； 政策支持、星座组网有望带动国内需求爆发。1）从中央到地方，商业航天迎来发展的政策黄金期；2）中国"千帆星座"与"GW星座"规划总数超 ...

央视网消息：在甘肃省民勤县，一块边长60米的正方形场地，是为中国第一款可回收火箭朱雀三号建设的回收场坪。12月3日中午，据此三百多公里之外的 酒泉卫星发射基地，朱雀三号首飞的时刻到来，这是中国商业航天历史的重要时刻。"大运力、低成本、可重复使用"，这意味着朱雀三号的首飞，将重新定 义中国人观看火箭发射的预期，不仅要看是否成功入轨，更要看火箭的一子级能否成功地返回地面。 记者：你的任务整个是分为两部分，一个是去，一个是回，去是成功的，但是回收没有成功。 戴政：略有遗憾。 不完整的返回画面中可以看到，朱雀三号距离成功并不遥远。 戴政：分离完了以后，它有一个高空大角度调姿，调完姿以后，在距离地面80公里会做一个点火，这个高空点火段实际上也是非常完美的。在进入40公里以 下的时候它就关机了，这时候会有一个气动滑行段，是一个超音速载入，速度是很快的，我们需要通过火箭上的栅格舵，包括火箭的控制系统把它控住。 点火升空之后，一百三十余秒，火箭一二级分离，二级继续完成入轨任务，一级则开启返程之路。很多人在甘肃民勤的回收场坪等待着它，它也确实准时地 出现在人们的视野当中。 媒体第一时间的报道中，朱雀三号首飞的结果被概括为入轨成 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong buy recommendation for several key companies in the military industry, including 中航西飞, 中航光电, 航天彩虹, 中科海讯, and 中航沈飞, among others [8]. Core Insights - The military industry has entered a phase of intensive commercial space launches, with significant advancements in satellite manufacturing and rocket launches [20][21]. - The ground equipment sub-industry has shown strong performance, with a year-to-date increase of 97.5%, driven by increased orders and mergers [14][12]. - The upcoming military parade on September 3 will highlight underwater combat capabilities, showcasing new technologies and equipment [25][26]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The SW National Defense and Military Index decreased by 0.15% this week, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 2.22 percentage points. However, it has increased by 21.74% year-to-date, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 14.94 percentage points [12][18]. - The ground equipment sub-industry led the military sectors with a weekly increase of 2.27% [14]. Key Events Recap - The commercial space sector is experiencing a surge in satellite launches, with three successful launches in August alone. Notable advancements include the successful deployment of multiple satellite constellations [20][21]. - The report highlights the increasing capabilities in satellite manufacturing and the launch of new commercial rockets, with a total of 39 launches by private companies from 2021 to mid-2025 [20]. Catalysts Outlook - The military parade scheduled for September 3 will feature new combat capabilities, particularly in underwater operations, reflecting advancements in military technology [25][26]. - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic and military trade demand, which is expected to enhance pricing power and profitability for leading companies in the sector [25].

Core Viewpoint - The commercial aerospace sector is witnessing a surge in IPO activities, with Beijing-based Blue Arrow Aerospace initiating its listing process on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, marking a significant milestone for the industry [1][10]. Company Overview - Blue Arrow Aerospace, founded in 2015, is recognized as a "super unicorn" with a valuation of 20 billion yuan, ranking 418th on the 2025 Global Unicorn List by Hurun Research Institute [1]. - The company has attracted significant investment from top-tier institutions, including Sequoia Capital and the National Manufacturing Transformation and Upgrade Fund [1]. - The founder, Zhang Changwu, transitioned from the finance sector to aerospace, leveraging his extensive experience in investment and management [4][5]. Industry Trends - Beijing has emerged as a leading hub for hard-tech unicorns, with 71.3% of such companies located in the city, reflecting a 28.3% increase since 2020 [2]. - The commercial aerospace industry is characterized by high investment, long cycles, and significant risks, necessitating "patient capital" for sustained growth [12]. Technological Achievements - Blue Arrow Aerospace has made notable advancements, including the successful launch of the "Zhuque-2" rocket, which became the world's first liquid oxygen-methane rocket to reach orbit [7]. - The company has focused on developing medium-sized launch vehicles and liquid engines, maintaining a consistent technological direction despite industry volatility [6]. Investment Landscape - Blue Arrow Aerospace has raised over 500 million yuan in various funding rounds since its inception, with a recent investment of 900 million yuan from the National Manufacturing Transformation and Upgrade Fund [8]. - The commercial aerospace sector in China is projected to grow significantly, with an expected market size of over 2.5 trillion yuan by 2025 [13]. Policy Support - Recent regulatory changes have facilitated the IPO process for unprofitable companies in the commercial aerospace sector, allowing them to bypass traditional profitability requirements [11]. - The Beijing Economic-Technological Development Area has implemented supportive policies to foster the growth of aerospace unicorns, contributing to a robust ecosystem for innovation [14][15].

Core Viewpoint - Blue Arrow Aerospace Technology Co., Ltd. is preparing for an initial public offering (IPO) on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, with a valuation of 20 billion yuan according to Hurun Research Institute's "2025 Global Unicorn List" [1][1][1] Company Overview - Founded in 2015, Blue Arrow Aerospace is one of the earliest private commercial rocket companies in China [1] - The company successfully launched the Zhuque-1 rocket in 2018 and introduced the Zhuque-2 rocket model in the same year, marking it as a pioneer in liquid launch vehicle development among private aerospace firms in China [1] - In 2022, the Zhuque-2 Yao-1 rocket's maiden flight established Blue Arrow as the first private aerospace company to conduct a liquid rocket launch in China [1] Recent Developments - On June 20, 2025, Blue Arrow successfully conducted a test of the first-stage propulsion system for the Zhuque-3 reusable launch vehicle, which was the largest and most automated ground hot test in China to date [1] - The complexity and fidelity of the test to actual flight conditions reached unprecedented levels, showcasing the company's advancements in technology [1]

Core Insights - Beijing has emerged as a global innovation city, ranking first in the global innovation city list for two consecutive years, with a strong focus on high-level technological self-reliance and quality development [1][2] - Agricultural Bank of China Beijing Branch (ABC Beijing Branch) plays a crucial role in supporting technology enterprises through comprehensive financial services, enhancing the adaptability and accessibility of technology finance [1][2] Group 1: Financial Support for Technology Enterprises - ABC Beijing Branch has provided significant financial support to technology companies, exemplified by its partnership with TianKe HeDa Semiconductor Co., which received over 2.28 billion yuan in credit and 700 million yuan in loans to support its growth [3][4] - The bank has established a specialized system for technology finance, creating a "2+4+4" branch structure to provide targeted support for technology enterprises [3][4] - The bank's understanding of strategic emerging industries and commitment to "hard technology" has enabled it to foster long-term relationships with companies like Shenzhou Cell Engineering, which has a credit balance of 351 million yuan with ABC Beijing Branch [4] Group 2: Innovative Financial Products - ABC Beijing Branch has developed innovative financial products such as "R&D loans" to meet the long-term funding needs of technology enterprises, focusing on their unique characteristics [5] - The bank has explored a "loan + equity" model to provide comprehensive financial services, facilitating over 20 investment roadshows for more than 100 technology companies [5][9] - As of June 2025, the loan balance for technology enterprises at ABC Beijing Branch exceeded 86 billion yuan, with significant growth in support for specialized and innovative enterprises [6][9] Group 3: Promoting Industry Upgrades - ABC Beijing Branch aims to create a virtuous cycle of "technology-industry-finance" by injecting financial resources into key areas of industrial upgrades, as seen in its support for companies like Blue Arrow Aerospace and Huadu Yuko Poultry [7][8] - The bank's support has enabled Huadu Yuko Poultry to transition from traditional breeding to technology-driven breeding, achieving a market share of over 50% in its sector [8] - The bank collaborates with local investment funds and research institutions to enhance the competitiveness of regional technology enterprise clusters [9]

Group 1: Company Overview - Dongguan Youbang Material Technology Co., Ltd. (Youbang Technology) has initiated IPO counseling with Shenwan Hongyuan after previously failing to list on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange [1][4] - Youbang Technology specializes in electronic assembly materials and automation equipment, with products widely used in smart terminals, communications, new energy, and semiconductors [1][4] - The company has established stable partnerships with major clients including Foxconn and has a significant revenue contribution from them, accounting for 27.67% of total revenue in the first half of 2023 [4] Group 2: Financial Performance - Youbang Technology's revenue for the years 2020 to 2023 (first half) was 419 million, 589 million, 854 million, and 394 million yuan respectively, while net profits were 47.64 million, 49.59 million, 77.39 million, and 35.54 million yuan [4] - The company has seen a steady increase in revenue and net profit over the reporting period, indicating growth potential [4] Group 3: Blue Arrow Aerospace - Blue Arrow Aerospace, founded in 2015, aims to develop a full industrial chain for medium and large liquid oxygen-methane launch vehicles and is recognized as a leading commercial aerospace company in China [5][6] - The company has successfully launched the Zhuque-2 rocket, becoming the first in the world to achieve orbit with a liquid oxygen-methane rocket [6] - Blue Arrow Aerospace has raised over 7 billion yuan through multiple financing rounds, with significant investments from various venture capital firms [6] Group 4: Yimiao Shenzhou - Beijing Yimiao Shenzhou Biomedical Co., Ltd. focuses on CAR-T cell therapy for cancer treatment and has received multiple clinical trial approvals [7][8] - The company has established partnerships with top hospitals for clinical research and has been recognized as a national high-tech enterprise [7][8] Group 5: Chuan Robot - Sichuan Chuan Robot Co., Ltd. has filed for IPO counseling with Huazheng Securities, focusing on humanoid and collaborative robots [9][10] - The company has over 150 patents and aims to develop advanced robotic solutions, indicating a strong commitment to innovation in the robotics sector [11] - The robotics industry is experiencing a surge in IPO activities, with several companies preparing for listings [11]