Group 1: Aluminum Market - The logic of aluminum shortage is expected to gradually materialize, leading to an upward cycle in aluminum prices, with electrolytic aluminum profits continuing to expand [3] - Shanghai aluminum price increased by 1.48% to 22,000 yuan/ton, and the profit margin for electrolytic aluminum rose by 5.40% to 6,051 yuan/ton [3] - Inventory levels show an increase in London aluminum stock by 0.57% to 552,400 tons and Shanghai aluminum stock by 1.38% to 114,900 tons, while domestic spot inventory decreased by 0.16% to 619,000 tons [3] Group 2: Copper Market - Copper prices are expected to remain volatile due to macroeconomic factors, with London copper, Shanghai copper, and US copper showing respective changes of +0.99%, +1.12%, and +1.86% [2] - Domestic copper inventory is decreasing, with London copper at 136,000 tons, New York copper at 381,000 short tons, and Shanghai copper at 109,000 tons, showing changes of -0.13%, +3.23%, and -4.89% respectively [2] - The operating rate for electrolytic copper rods increased by 4.91 percentage points to 66.88% [2] Group 3: Lithium Market - Lithium demand has exceeded expectations, with lithium carbonate prices rising by 5.91% to 85,200 yuan/ton and spodumene concentrate increasing by 8.52% to 1,006 USD/ton [4][5] - Lithium carbonate production reached 21,500 tons, reflecting a slight increase of 0.1%, while weekly inventory decreased by 2.8% to 120,500 tons [4][5] - The lithium sector is expected to see a profit turning point as inventory continues to decline [5] Group 4: Cobalt Market - The tight supply of cobalt raw materials remains unchanged, with cobalt prices expected to continue rising, as MB cobalt increased by 0.53% to 23.65 USD/pound and domestic cobalt prices rose by 3.39% to 397,000 yuan/ton [5] - The Democratic Republic of Congo has lifted its cobalt export ban, transitioning to a quota system, but current export approvals are still pending, indicating a continued tight supply in the short term [5]

Core Insights - The non-ferrous metal sector is experiencing an upward trend, with the National Index for Non-Ferrous Metals (399395) rising by 0.64% as of November 5, 2025, driven by strong performances from key stocks such as Vanadium Titanium Co. (000629) and Tianqi Lithium (002466) [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The non-ferrous metal sector is buoyed by the lithium battery segment, which has seen significant price increases in lithium carbonate due to robust demand from the new energy vehicle and energy storage markets [1] - The ETF for non-ferrous metals (159880) has also increased by 0.65%, reflecting the overall positive sentiment in the sector [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - A potential supply disruption in copper is expected to elevate price levels, with projections indicating a tight supply-demand situation for copper in 2026 [1] - The aluminum market is nearing the end of its peak season, with supply-side factors providing rigid support for price levels [1] - Tungsten prices are on the rise, with expectations of recovering export demand [1] Group 3: Lithium Market Insights - Lithium carbonate prices have shown a slight increase this week, attributed to better-than-expected demand in the downstream sector [1] - October's lithium carbonate production continued to grow, with a month-on-month increase of 6% and a year-on-year surge of 55%, indicating strong production enthusiasm within the industry [1] - Despite uncertainties in mining policies in Jiangxi, strong demand is expected to provide robust support for lithium prices, with forecasts suggesting continued price increases in November [1] Group 4: Index Composition - The National Index for Non-Ferrous Metals (399395) includes 50 prominent securities from the non-ferrous metal sector, reflecting the overall performance of listed companies in this industry [2] - The top ten weighted stocks in the index account for 52.91% of the total index, highlighting the concentration of performance among leading companies such as Zijin Mining (601899) and Ganfeng Lithium (002460) [2]

Core Insights - The A-share mining and metal materials stocks have seen significant profit increases in the first three quarters, driven by rising product prices and volumes [1] - The Southern China Index's ETF for non-ferrous metals has gained over 80% year-to-date as of October 27 [1] - Several individual non-ferrous metal stocks have experienced over 100% gains year-to-date, with notable performers including Luoyang Luanchuan Molybdenum Group (170.16%) and Zijin Mining Group (112.04%) [1] Company Performance - Four gold mining companies reported both revenue and net profit growth, with Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining achieving a remarkable 86.21% increase in net profit, reaching 2.058 billion yuan [1] - Eight out of ten tungsten, cobalt, lead, and zinc small metal companies reported revenue and net profit growth, with four companies exceeding 1 billion yuan in net profit [2] - Zijin Mining's net profit increased by 55.45% to 37.864 billion yuan, attributed to improved production organization and operational management [2] Market Trends - The overall performance of non-ferrous metal industry listed companies is positive, primarily due to rising prices of certain mineral products, with gold prices increasing over 60% and silver prices over 80% this year [3] - The price of black tungsten concentrate surged from 150,000 yuan/ton in the first half of the year to around 280,000 yuan/ton, marking an increase of over 85% [3] - Long-term prospects for precious metals remain bullish, while basic metals like copper and aluminum are expected to maintain high prices due to tight supply, although demand recovery remains uncertain [3]

Core Viewpoint - China Nonferrous Mining (01258) shares rose over 3%, reaching HKD 14.53 with a trading volume of HKD 136 million, following the announcement of a projected profit increase for the nine months ending September 30, 2025 [1] Financial Performance - The company estimates a profit attributable to shareholders of approximately USD 356 million, representing a year-on-year growth of about 13% [1] - The increase in economic indicators is primarily driven by the rise in international copper prices and an increase in cathode copper production and sales [1] Production Metrics - For the nine months ending September 30, 2025, the company produced approximately 107,700 tons of cathode copper (including copper product processing services), a year-on-year increase of about 12%, achieving 77% of the annual production target [1] - The production of cathode copper from its own mines was approximately 63,900 tons, remaining stable compared to the same period last year [1] - The total production of crude copper and anode copper (including copper product processing services) was approximately 307,600 tons, a year-on-year increase of about 7%, also achieving 77% of the annual production target [1] - The production of crude copper and anode copper from its own mines was approximately 54,200 tons, a year-on-year decrease of about 6% [1] - The company produced approximately 788,300 tons of sulfuric acid, a year-on-year increase of about 2%, completing 79% of the annual production target [1] - The production of cobalt hydroxide (containing cobalt) was approximately 676 tons, a year-on-year decrease of about 12%, achieving 75% of the annual production target [1] - The production of liquid sulfur dioxide was approximately 1,442 tons, a significant year-on-year decrease of about 90%, completing only 14% of the annual production target [1]

Core Viewpoint - China Nonferrous Mining (01258) expects to achieve a profit attributable to shareholders of approximately $356 million for the nine months ending September 30, 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of about 13% driven by rising international copper prices and increased cathode copper production and sales [1] Production and Financial Performance - For the nine months ending September 30, 2025, the group produced approximately 107,700 tons of cathode copper (including copper product processing services), a year-on-year increase of about 12%, achieving approximately 77% of the annual production guidance [1] - The group’s own mines produced approximately 63,900 tons of cathode copper, remaining stable compared to the same period last year [1] - The total production of crude copper and anode copper (including copper product processing services) reached approximately 307,600 tons, a year-on-year increase of about 7%, also achieving approximately 77% of the annual production guidance [1] - The group’s own mines produced approximately 54,200 tons of crude copper and anode copper, a year-on-year decrease of about 6% [1] - The total production of sulfuric acid was approximately 788,300 tons, a year-on-year increase of about 2%, achieving approximately 79% of the annual production guidance [1] - The total production of cobalt hydroxide (containing cobalt) was approximately 676 tons, a year-on-year decrease of about 12%, achieving approximately 75% of the annual production guidance [1] - The total production of liquid sulfur dioxide was approximately 1,442 tons, a year-on-year decrease of about 90%, achieving only about 14% of the annual production guidance [1]

Group 1 - Copper prices are testing the $11,000 per ton mark, approaching last year's record high due to optimistic demand and supply concerns triggered by mining accidents [1] - In London trading, three-month futures rose over 1%, nearing $10,970 per ton [1] - Other base metals such as aluminum reached a three-year high, while zinc and tin prices also increased [1] Group 2 - Copper prices have risen approximately 25% this year, recovering from significant sell-offs triggered by the escalation of the trade war in April [1] - Supply challenges have become a focal point for investors, particularly following the suspension of operations at Freeport-McMoRan's Grasberg mine in Indonesia due to a landslide [1] - Freeport indicated that the Grasberg mine, the second-largest copper mine globally, remains in a state of suspension and will update investors on its outlook next month [1]

Group 1 - The global non-ferrous metal market is experiencing a strong upward trend, with international gold prices surpassing $4200 per ounce and copper prices nearing historical highs [1] - Factors driving the increase in non-ferrous metal prices include high expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve, with a 97% probability indicated by the CME FedWatch tool [1] - Supply-demand imbalances are also contributing to the price surge, with constraints on supply due to insufficient capital expenditure, a decrease in quality mines, and the strategic importance of resource commodities [1] Group 2 - A recent joint announcement by eight departments in China outlines a "Non-Ferrous Metal Industry Growth Stabilization Work Plan (2025-2026)," targeting an average annual growth of around 5% in industry value added by 2026 [2] - The plan provides a clear development path for the non-ferrous metal industry, setting specific growth objectives for the years 2025 to 2026 [2] Group 3 - Short-term outlook suggests that safe-haven sentiment will continue to support precious metal prices, while long-term factors such as expanding U.S. fiscal deficits and geopolitical conflicts may sustain demand for gold [3] - The market may experience increased volatility in gold prices due to potential discrepancies in rate cut expectations and geopolitical tensions following the anticipated October rate cut [3] - Overall, the current non-ferrous metal market is benefiting from rising expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, alongside tightening supply and increasing demand [3]

Core Viewpoint - Jiangxi Copper announced that its stock price has deviated significantly, with a cumulative increase of 20% over three consecutive trading days, indicating abnormal trading activity [1] Company Summary - The company confirmed that its production and operational activities are normal [1] - Recent market prices for the company's main products, including cathode copper and gold, have seen significant increases [1]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview: Non-Ferrous Metals (Copper, Gold, Cobalt, Nickel) Copper Market Insights - Copper prices are expected to reach new highs in the first half of 2026, potentially hitting the range of 12,000-14,000 CNY, driven by supply constraints due to production cuts and mine shutdowns, notably at Freeport's Grasberg mine, leading to a cumulative global copper production guidance reduction of nearly 500,000 tons [1][2][3] - The global copper supply is likely to remain flat in 2026, with most companies experiencing slowed growth, although optimism about the copper market trend persists for the coming years [1][6] - Downstream industries are increasingly accepting higher copper prices, with the current acceptable price around 78,000 CNY, and demand from the State Grid and stable growth in the air conditioning and automotive sectors are expected to maintain overall copper demand growth at around 2% [1][10] Company-Specific Insights - Zijin Mining is projected to produce 190,000-200,000 tons in 2025, increasing to 250,000-270,000 tons in 2026, and reaching 300,000 tons in 2027. The company commits to a dividend payout ratio exceeding 50% from 2024 to 2026, with a dividend yield close to 5% and profits estimated at 48-49 billion CNY [1][11] - The market capitalization of Zijin Mining is expected to reach between 900 billion to 1 trillion CNY, indicating a favorable valuation compared to its long-term valuation range of 11-15 times [1][11] Smelting Industry Outlook - The smelting industry is anticipated to face tight supply next year, with leading companies unlikely to incur losses even if processing fees are zero, due to high sulfuric acid prices and expectations of reduced competition [1][12] Cobalt Market Dynamics - The cobalt market has shown strong performance, with the U.S. designating cobalt as a strategic resource. Supply tightness in the Democratic Republic of Congo and increased government quota management are driving cobalt prices up, with Huayou Cobalt expected to achieve profits exceeding 7 billion CNY in 2026 [3][16] Nickel Market Developments - Recent policy changes in Indonesia regarding nickel mining approvals are expected to tighten global nickel supply, potentially leading to price increases. Current nickel prices are around 15,500 USD/ton, with expectations to rise to 17,000 USD/ton [17][18] Investment Recommendations - Companies to watch include Zijin Mining and Tongling Nonferrous Metals in the copper sector, as well as Huayou Cobalt in the cobalt market. In the gold sector, Zijin Mining, Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining, and Shandong Gold are recommended [5][21] Long-term Market Logic - The copper market is primarily influenced by supply factors, while gold benefits from central bank and ETF purchases, and cobalt is affected by supply conditions in the Democratic Republic of Congo. These trends suggest that prices for copper, gold, and cobalt may exceed market expectations in both the short and long term [20]

Group 1 - During the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, various mining assets, non-ferrous metals, and precious metals sectors experienced significant gains [1] - The U.S. government announced a partnership with Trilogy Metals, acquiring a 10% stake, leading to a surge of over 230% in Trilogy Metals' stock price [1] - The Trump administration is considering investing in Critical Metals, which may grant the U.S. rights to Greenland's largest rare earth project, causing Critical Metals' stock to spike nearly 109% [1] Group 2 - In the last trading day of September, the non-ferrous metals sector attracted over 14.3 billion yuan in net inflows, indicating strong market interest [2] - Precious metals and non-ferrous metals were identified as the strongest sectors in September, with copper prices exceeding $10,000 per ton [2][4] - The continuous inflow of funds suggests optimism regarding the performance of these commodities during the National Day holiday [3] Group 3 - The ongoing "anti-involution" policies in the domestic non-ferrous industry are expected to optimize the supply-side capacity structure [4] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, combined with frequent supply disruptions and domestic demand during the "golden September and silver October" season, are likely to drive industrial metal prices higher [4] Group 4 - Related Hong Kong stocks in the non-ferrous metals sector include: - Copper: Luoyang Molybdenum (603993)(03993), Zijin Mining (02899), China Nonferrous Mining (01258), Wanguo Resources (01208), Jiangxi Copper (600362)(00358), China Railway (601390)(00390) [5] - Aluminum: China Aluminum (601600)(02600), China Hongqiao (01378), Rusal (00486) - Tungsten: Jaxin International Resources (03858) - Cobalt: Liqin Resources (02245), Luoyang Molybdenum (03993) - Antimony: Wanguo Resources (01208), Jiangxi Copper (00358) - Rare Earth: Jieneng Permanent Magnet (06680) [6]