2026年3月6日 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沥青期货早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，根据隆众，2026年2月份国内地炼沥青排产量为102.3万吨，环比 降幅3.30%。本周国内石油沥青样本产能利用率为23.3701%，环比减少2.76个百 分点，全国样本企业出货15.42万吨，环比减少27.12%,样本企业产量为39万 吨，环比减少10.55%,样本企业装置检修量预估为129.8万吨，环比增加26.02%, 本周炼厂有所减产，降低供应压力。下周或将减少供给压力。 需求端来看，重交沥青开工率为21.7%，环比减少0.11个百分点，低于历史平均 水平；建筑沥青开工率为3.3%，环比持平，低于历史平均水平；改性沥青开工 率为3.7058 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints Industrial Silicon - Supply side: Last week, the industrial silicon supply was 68,000 tons, a decrease of 4.22% week-on-week. The supply schedule is decreasing and remains at a low level. - Demand side: Last week, the demand was 67,000 tons, an increase of 11.67% week-on-week, showing an upward trend. - Cost side: The production cost of sample oxygenated 553 in Xinjiang is 9,769.7 yuan/ton, with no change week-on-week, and the cost support has increased during the dry season. - Expectation: Industrial silicon 2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,340 - 8,520 yuan/ton [6]. Polysilicon - Supply side: Last week, the polysilicon output was 20,100 tons, remaining unchanged week-on-week. The production schedule for February is predicted to be 79,700 tons, a decrease of 20.93% compared to the previous month. - Demand side: The production of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components is decreasing, and the overall demand is in a continuous decline. - Cost side: The average cost of N-type polysilicon materials in the industry is 40,830 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 10,920 yuan/ton. - Expectation: Polysilicon 2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 46,610 - 48,650 yuan/ton [10]. Overall - Positive factors: Rising costs provide support, and manufacturers have plans to reduce production. - Negative factors: Slow recovery of post - holiday demand; strong supply and weak demand in the downstream polysilicon market. - Main logic: Capacity elimination, cost support, and demand growth [14][15]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Views Industrial Silicon - Supply: Decreased last week, with a continuous low - level production schedule. - Demand: Increased last week, showing signs of recovery. - Cost: Cost support has increased during the dry season. - Market indicators: Spot price is higher than futures price; social inventory has decreased, while major port inventory has increased; MA20 is downward, and the main contract position is net short [6]. Polysilicon - Supply: Production schedule is decreasing. - Demand: Overall demand is in a continuous decline. - Cost: Cost support is stable. - Market indicators: Spot price is higher than futures price; weekly inventory is at a high level; MA20 is downward, and the main contract position is net long [12][10]. 2. Fundamental/Position Data Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week's supply was 68,000 tons, a 4.22% week - on - week decrease. - Demand: Last week's demand was 67,000 tons, an 11.67% week - on - week increase. - Cost: The production cost of sample oxygenated 553 in Xinjiang is 9,769.7 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change. - Inventory: Social inventory is 557,000 tons, a 0.88% week - on - week decrease; sample enterprise inventory is 200,800 tons, a 2.52% week - on - week decrease; major port inventory is 139,000 tons, a 2.21% week - on - week increase [6]. Polysilicon - Supply: Last week's output was 20,100 tons, remaining unchanged week - on - week. The February production schedule is predicted to be 79,700 tons, a 20.93% decrease compared to the previous month. - Demand: The production of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components is decreasing. - Cost: The average cost of N - type polysilicon materials in the industry is 40,830 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 10,920 yuan/ton. - Inventory: Weekly inventory is 349,000 tons, a 2.34% week - on - week increase, at a high level in the same period of history [8][9][12]. Other Data Industrial Silicon - **Price and Basis**: The closing prices of different contracts show different fluctuations; the basis of the 05 contract is 770 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [18]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of different regions and ports shows different trends, with some increasing and some decreasing [18]. - **Output and Capacity Utilization**: The weekly output of sample enterprises has decreased, and the capacity utilization rate of different regions has also changed [18]. - **Cost**: The production costs of different regions and specifications have different degrees of change [18]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The weekly and monthly supply - demand balance sheets show the relationship between production, import, export, and consumption [46][49]. Polysilicon - **Price and Basis**: The closing prices of different contracts show different fluctuations; the basis of the 05 contract is 5,370 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [20]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory has increased, and the inventory of components in different regions shows different trends [20]. - **Output and Capacity Utilization**: The monthly output and capacity utilization rate show different trends [20]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost and profit of different production links show different situations [20]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The monthly supply - demand balance sheet shows the relationship between supply, import, export, and consumption [73].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 指标体系 沪锌: 沪锌期货早报-2026年2月26日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85225791 1、基本面： 外媒1月21日消息：世界金属统计局（WBMS）公布最新数据显 示，2025年11月，全球锌板产量为119.7万吨,消费量为116.8万吨,供应过剩 2.9万吨.1-11月,全球锌板产量为1275.61万吨,消费量为1310.65万吨,供应 短缺35.04万吨.11月份,全球锌矿产量为106.9万吨.1-11月,全球锌矿产量为 1214.19万吨；偏多。 2、基差：现货24600，基差-110；中性。 3、库存：2月25日LME锌库存较上日减少1425吨至99825吨，2月25日上期所 锌库存仓单较上日增加5095吨至65319吨；中性。 4、盘面：昨日沪锌震荡上涨走势，收20日均 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱早报 2026-2-25 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 纯碱： 1、基本面：远兴能源二期开工负荷提升，碱厂产量高位，整体供给预期充裕；下游浮法玻璃、光 伏日熔量整体延续下滑趋势，纯碱厂库处于历史同期高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1140元/吨，SA2605收盘价为1169元/吨，基差为-29元，期货升 水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存158.80万吨，较前一周增加0.44%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：纯碱基本面疲弱，短期预计震荡偏弱运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 1、下游浮法玻璃冷修较少，产量持稳。 利空： 主要逻辑和风险点 1、远 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪镍&不锈钢早报—2026年2月25日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资：F3023048 投资咨询证：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 沪镍 每日观点 1、基本面：外盘大幅上涨，站回20均线以上。矿市春节期间稳定，印尼矿区虽发生滑坡事故，涉事区 域暂停运营，但对整体供应影响不大，矿价依然坚挺，镍铁价格节前也有小幅反弹，成本线支撑强劲。 电解镍产量1月回升，前期减产产能恢复生产，国内外库存累加高位，整体供应充足。下游不锈钢库存 回升，节前消费比较疲软，新能源产业上，新能源车一季度也是个消费淡季，总体需求偏弱。偏空 2、基差：现货142500，基差4550，偏多 3、库存：LME库存287328，-378，上交所仓单51924，-534，偏空 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线以下，20均线向下，偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净多，多减，偏多 6、结论：沪镍260 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪锌期货早报-2026年2月25日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85225791 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 指标体系 沪锌: 1、基本面： 外媒1月21日消息：世界金属统计局（WBMS）公布最新数据显 示，2025年11月，全球锌板产量为119.7万吨,消费量为116.8万吨,供应过剩 2.9万吨.1-11月,全球锌板产量为1275.61万吨,消费量为1310.65万吨,供应 短缺35.04万吨.11月份,全球锌矿产量为106.9万吨.1-11月,全球锌矿产量为 1214.19万吨；偏多。 2、基差：现货24710，基差+30；中性。 3、库存：2月24日LME锌库存较上日减少300吨至101250吨，2月24日上期所 锌库存仓单较上日增加14531吨至60224吨；中性。 4、盘面：昨日沪锌震荡上涨走势，收20日均 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沥青期货早报 2026年2月24日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，根据隆众，2026年2月份国内地炼沥青排产量为102.3万吨，环比 降幅3.30%。本周国内石油沥青样本产能利用率为23.3701%，环比减少2.76个百 分点，全国样本企业出货15.42万吨，环比减少27.12%,样本企业产量为39万 吨，环比减少10.55%,样本企业装置检修量预估为129.8万吨，环比增加26.02%, 本周炼厂有所减产，降低供应压力。下周或将减少供给压力。 需求端来看，重交沥青开工率为21.7%，环比减少0.11个百分点，低于历史平均 水平；建筑沥青开工率为3.3%，环比持平，低于历史平均水平；改性沥青开工 率为3.705 ...

1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PVC期货早报 2026年2月24日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 每日观点 供给端来看，据隆众统计，2026年1月PVC产量为214.863万吨，环比增加0.53%；本周样本企业产能 利用率为80.09%，环比增加0.01个百分点；电石法企业产量35.164万吨，环比增加0.95%,乙烯法企 业产量13.8716万吨，环比增加1.28%；本周供给压力有所增加；下周预计检修有所减少，预计排产 少量增加。 需求端来看，下游整体开工率为12.95%，环比减少28.4个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游型材开 工率为17.17%，环比减少11.9个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游管材开工率为7.4%，环比减少 25.6个百分点，低于历史平均水平 ...

沪锌期货早报-2026年2月24日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85225791 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 指标体系 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪锌: 1、基本面： 外媒1月21日消息：世界金属统计局（WBMS）公布最新数据显 示，2025年11月，全球锌板产量为119.7万吨,消费量为116.8万吨,供应过剩 2.9万吨.1-11月,全球锌板产量为1275.61万吨,消费量为1310.65万吨,供应 短缺35.04万吨.11月份,全球锌矿产量为106.9万吨.1-11月,全球锌矿产量为 1214.19万吨；偏多。 2、基差：现货24400，基差-250；偏空。 3、库存：2月23日LME锌库存较上日减少25吨至101550吨，2月13日上期所锌 库存仓单较上日增加2633吨至45693吨；中性。 4、盘面：昨日沪锌震荡下跌走势，收20日均线 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - The short - term zinc market is expected to fluctuate and weaken. The previous trading day saw the Shanghai zinc futures show a volatile downward trend. With the approaching holiday, both long and short positions are cautious. Technically, the price is above the long - term moving average with strong support, but the long - position strength is decreasing while the short - position strength is increasing, and the advantage of the long - position is narrowing. The operation suggestion for Shanghai zinc ZN2603 is to expect a weakening trend in the short term [2][18]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Analysis - In November 2025, the global zinc plate production was 1.197 million tons, consumption was 1.168 million tons, with a supply surplus of 29,000 tons. From January to November, the global zinc plate production was 12.7561 million tons, consumption was 13.1065 million tons, with a supply shortage of 350,400 tons. In November, the global zinc ore production was 1.069 million tons. From January to November, the global zinc ore production was 12.1419 million tons, which is a bullish factor [2]. 3.2 Basis Analysis - The spot price is 24,530, and the basis is - 120, showing a neutral situation [2]. 3.3 Inventory Analysis - On February 12, the LME zinc inventory decreased by 1,750 tons to 103,500 tons, and the SHFE zinc inventory warrant increased by 725 tons to 43,060 tons, presenting a neutral condition [2]. 3.4 Market Trend Analysis - The previous trading day, the Shanghai zinc futures showed a volatile downward trend, closing below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average was downward, which is a bearish signal [2]. 3.5 Main Position Analysis - The main net position is long, and the long - position is increasing, which is a bullish factor [2]. 3.6 Futures Market Quotes - On February 12, different delivery months of zinc futures had different performances in terms of opening price, high price, low price, closing price, settlement price, trading volume, and open interest. For example, for the 2603 contract, the opening price was 24,750, the high price was 24,775, the low price was 24,415, the closing price was 24,650, the settlement price was 24,590, the trading volume was 96,396 lots, and the open interest decreased by 6,527 lots [3]. 3.7 Spot Market Quotes - On February 12, the price of zinc concentrate's domestic spot TC was 1,300 yuan/metal ton, and the imported comprehensive TC was 30 US dollars/dry ton. The price of 0 zinc ingot in different regions such as Shanghai, Guangdong, Tianjin, and Zhejiang had different price ranges and increases [4]. 3.8 Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics - From February 2 to February 12, 2026, the total inventory of zinc ingots in major domestic markets increased from 111,200 tons to 138,100 tons. Compared with February 5, it increased by 19,800 tons, and compared with February 9, it increased by 10,000 tons [5]. 3.9 Zinc Futures Warrant Report - On February 12, the total zinc futures warrant was 43,060 tons, with an increase of 725 tons. Different regions and warehouses had different warrant quantities and changes. For example, in Shanghai, the total warrant was 6,120 tons, with an increase of 551 tons [6]. 3.10 LME Zinc Inventory Distribution - On February 12, the LME zinc inventory decreased in some regions. The total inventory decreased by 1,750 tons to 103,500 tons, and the注销占比 in different regions also varied [7]. 3.11 Zinc Ingot Smelter Price Quotes - On February 12, the prices of 0 zinc ingots from different smelters such as Torch, Huzinc, Nanhua, etc. all increased by 20 yuan/ton [12]. 3.12 Domestic Refined Zinc Production in January 2026 - The planned production in January 2026 was 485,500 tons, the actual production was 479,200 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 1.25%, a year - on - year increase of 7.78%, and a 1.29% shortfall compared with the planned value. The capacity utilization rate was 67.02%, and the planned production in February was 468,700 tons [14]. 3.13 Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee Quotes - On February 12, the zinc concentrate processing fees in different domestic regions with a 50% grade had different ranges, and the imported zinc concentrate processing fee with a 48% grade was 20 - 40 US dollars/dry ton, with an average of 30 US dollars/dry ton [16]. 3.14 SHFE Member Zinc Trading and Position Ranking - On February 12, in terms of trading volume, members such as CITIC Futures, Guotai Junan, and Dongzheng Futures had different trading volumes and changes. In terms of long - positions, CITIC Futures, Guotai Junan, etc. held different long - positions and had different changes. In terms of short - positions, CITIC Futures, Guotai Junan, etc. also had different short - positions and changes [17].