Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - If the opening price of AD2511 is below 19,000 yuan/ton, go long on the AD2511 contract and short on the AL2511 contract; if it is above 19,600 yuan/ton, short the AD2511 contract unilaterally [4]. - The absolute price of aluminum alloy is expected to be poor, but it needs to be evaluated against the opening price. The relative price of aluminum alloy is currently at a low level. The supply of scrap aluminum will continue to be tight, and the fundamentals of aluminum alloy are weaker than those of electrolytic aluminum [5]. 3. Summary by Directory Background: Current Node Aluminum Price Further Upside is Limited - The profit of the electrolytic aluminum industry is 3,000 yuan/ton, at a relatively high level. The alumina price on the cost side is weak, and the inventory on the consumption side is still decreasing. However, the production of aluminum rods and aluminum strips and foils shows a marginal decline, indicating the approach of the seasonal consumption off - season. Without additional macro - disturbing factors, there is no fundamental support for further increasing the aluminum price. With low inventory, the aluminum price will mainly fluctuate with a slight downward trend and limited decline space [5]. Compared with Electrolytic Aluminum, Aluminum Alloy Fundamentals are Weaker - The operating rate of recycled alloys is only about 50%, with excess capacity, while the electrolytic aluminum operating rate is 97%, approaching the production capacity ceiling. The consumption of recycled alloys is overly concentrated in the automotive sector. Currently, the automobile production is good and vehicle lightweighting is ongoing, which boosts the consumption of aluminum alloy. In the long run, when automobile production and lightweighting development approach the bottleneck, the increase in the penetration rate of new - energy vehicles will drag down the consumption of aluminum alloy [5]. Scrap Aluminum Supply will Continue to be Tight - Forecasts show that the supply growth of domestic scrap aluminum will be limited, and the supply of old scrap aluminum may face challenges, leading to a continuous tight supply situation [18]. Smelting Profit and Spread Performance - From the analysis of recycled alloy smelting profit and ADC12 - A00 spread seasonality, the current relative price of aluminum alloy is at a low level. The Baotai quotation is 19,400 yuan/ton, and the actual spot transaction price is 19,200 yuan/ton. If the price of the aluminum alloy 2511 contract reaches 19,600 yuan/ton, the smelting losses of aluminum alloy plants will be repaired, and the hedging willingness will increase [5]. Expiring Warehouse Receipt Mode is Unfavorable for Buying Delivery - According to sample mine statistics, the output in the first quarter of 2025 was 1142,000 tons, with only a year - on - year increase of 4700 tons [28]. Contract Details Comparison - The trading unit of aluminum is 5 tons/hand, and that of aluminum alloy is 10 tons/hand. The minimum price change for both is 5 yuan/ton. The trading time, last trading day, and delivery date are similar, but there are differences in details such as trading code, delivery unit, and warehouse receipt validity period. The aluminum alloy futures will be listed for trading on June 10, 2025 [30].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - For copper, the market is influenced by multiple factors. The US government's policies may intensify the global supply - demand tightness, but domestic factors like canceled photovoltaic projects and the off - season in the copper industry reduce the upward momentum. For protein粕, the market is complex with different trends in related products, and the future trend of bean粕 depends on factors such as US soybean weather. For petroleum asphalt, the demand is weak due to rainfall and project funds, and the supply is increasing, so the price is expected to be under pressure in the long - term [1][3][4][6][8][10]. 3. Summary by Variety Copper - **Intraday and Mid - term Views**: Intraday view is in the range of 77000 - 78600, and the mid - term view is in the range of 60000 - 90000. The reference strategy is to adopt an oscillating operation idea [1]. - **Core Logic**: Macroscopically, there are concerns about high tariffs on imported copper. Supply - wise, the Kamoa - Kakula copper mine will resume operation at the end of June, and the global copper concentrate supply - demand tightness persists. Demand - wise, the开工 rate of refined copper rod enterprises is expected to rise slightly this week but may decline in June. Consumption in different regions is weak. In terms of inventory, LME copper inventory decreased and SHFE copper warehouse receipts increased on June 4 [1][2]. - **Outlook**: The US government's policies may exacerbate the supply - demand tightness, but domestic factors reduce the upward momentum [3]. Protein粕 - **Core Logic**: This week, the meal market oscillated. The pressure from domestic traders' large - scale purchases of South American soybeans may have been released. The weather speculation of US soybeans before the end of August may help bean粕 2509 build a bottom. The vegetable oil market has different trends, affected by policies and planting progress [4]. - **International Situation**: US soybean planting is going smoothly. The expected soybean arrivals in June, July, and August are 1200, 950, and 850 million tons respectively. Canadian rapeseed planting is faster than usual, and the global rapeseed production is expected to increase in the 25/26 season [5]. - **Outlook**: Pay attention to the USDA and MPOB monthly reports next week. Bean粕 2509 will generally oscillate, and it is advisable to consider selling out - of - the - money put options on the near - month contracts [6]. - **Intraday and Mid - term Views**: Intraday, bean粕 2509 oscillates in the range of [2900, 3000]. Mid - term, it searches for a bottom at a relatively low position in the range of [2800, 3100]. The reference strategy is to continue holding the sold out - of - the - money put option of bean粕 2509 - P - 2850 [7]. Petroleum Asphalt - **Intraday and Mid - term Views**: Intraday, it runs under pressure, and mid - term, it oscillates weakly. The reference strategy is to sell high [8]. - **Core Logic**: Supply - side, local refineries' losses in asphalt production have deepened, but the domestic asphalt plant operating rate has increased. Demand - side, due to rainfall and project funds, the demand is weak. Inventory - wise, the plant inventory has declined for three consecutive weeks, and the social inventory has increased for two consecutive weeks. The cost is affected by the oil price, which has some upward potential but also faces pressure from OPEC+ [8][9]. - **Outlook**: The release of asphalt's rigid demand is less than expected. In the long - term, with the increase in supply, if the oil price falls, the asphalt price is expected to follow a weak trend [10].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core Views - For aluminum, the intraday view is oscillating with an upward bias in the range of 20,000 - 20,300, and the medium - term view is high - level operation in the range of 19,200 - 21,000 [1]. - For steel products (including rebar and hot - rolled coil), the short - term driving force has improved, but the steel price is still under pressure in the medium term [3]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Metal and New Energy Materials Sector (Aluminum) - **View and Strategy** - Intraday view: Oscillating with an upward bias, operating range 20,000 - 20,300; Medium - term view: High - level operation, operating range 19,200 - 21,000. Reference strategy is to sell AL2507 - P - 19300 and hold [1]. - **Core Logic** - As of May 12, the 5 - location electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 600,000 tons, a decrease of 19,000 tons from last week and lower than 745,000 tons in the same period last year, being at the lowest level in the past 5 years, which is favorable for aluminum prices [1]. - From January to April, automobile production and sales reached 10.175 million and 10.06 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year growth of 12.9% and 10.8% respectively, which is favorable for aluminum prices [1]. - The China - US tariff agreement boosts market sentiment and is favorable for aluminum prices [2]. Black and Building Materials Sector (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - **View and Strategy** - Intraday view: Recent driving force has improved; Medium - term view: Steel prices are still under pressure. Reference strategies are to continue holding the "sell rebar call option RB2510 - C - 3450" strategy and temporarily reduce the position of the "buy rebar in - the - money put option RB2510 - P - 3150" strategy [3]. - **Core Logic** - The China - US tariff negotiation has made substantial progress. The current tariff rate has dropped significantly from the previous 145% imposed by the US on China. Some foreign - trade factories may rush to fulfill export orders before the implementation of the 54% high - tariff in early July, driving a short - term increase in the demand for steel plates (such as hot - rolled coil), which is conducive to the stabilization and rebound of steel prices [3]. - The overall inventory pressure of steel raw materials is still large. The furnace material price and steel production cost are expected to be under pressure in the medium term. For iron ore, the inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports this week was 14.34088 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.72%, and the low - grade tradable inventory at ports is at a 5 - year high. The Simandou iron ore mine in Guinea will be put into production this year, with about 60 million tons of iron ore to enter the market, and the supply pressure is difficult to digest. The sample mine coking coal inventory is 390,430 tons, a week - on - week increase of 8.90% and a year - on - year increase of 50.90%. The coking coal inventory of coal washing plants is 197,280 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.75% and a year - on - year increase of 30.95%, remaining at the highest level in the past 5 years. The inventory pressure of furnace materials may further translate into an incremental supply of finished steel [4]. - The overall downstream demand for steel is average. For steel plates, under the impact of US tariff increases, not only are the profits of the global manufacturing industry damaged, but it is also expected to gradually impact global consumption. The negative impact on export orders for industrial products such as steel plate downstream has gradually emerged, as shown by the decline in the new order index of the manufacturing PMI in April, indicating that the growth of domestic demand for steel plates cannot fully offset the decline in external demand. For building materials, the funds for downstream construction projects are still in short supply, and the construction progress is slow, resulting in weak consumption of construction steel. The weekly consumption of rebar last week was 2.139 million tons, a year - on - year decline of 18.32%. The weak demand for building materials is the main reason for the overall weaker consumption of the five major steel products compared to previous years. Under the background of supply - demand pressure, the driving force for the continuous upward movement of steel prices is insufficient, and one can sell out - of - the - money call options on rebar to earn option time - value income [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the unexpected financial performance of Knight Dairy (832786.BJ) in 2024, with a revenue increase of only 3.22% to 1.297 billion yuan, while net profit turned into a loss of 7.6951 million yuan compared to a profit of 93.85 million yuan in 2023 [2] - The decline in fresh milk prices is identified as a critical factor impacting Knight Dairy's profitability, with domestic milk prices dropping nearly 40% over 40 months, leading to an average price of 3.32 yuan/kg in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 13.42% [2] - Knight Dairy's heavy reliance on a single major customer, Mengniu, for over 90% of its fresh milk sales limits its bargaining power, resulting in a challenging situation where both raising cattle and selling cattle are unprofitable [2] Group 2 - The company faces challenges due to its single business structure, with over 40% of its sugar business sales dependent on a single customer, Zhejiang Hangshishan Industrial [3] - Although Knight Dairy has attempted to diversify by expanding into milk powder and long-life sterilized milk, these segments saw revenue growth of 40% and 85% respectively in 2024, but their gross margins remain below 10%, making them unlikely to become significant growth drivers in the short term [3] - Knight Dairy has been criticized by the Beijing Stock Exchange for not timely revising its earnings forecast, raising concerns about its financial transparency [3]