Core Points - The European Central Bank (ECB) announced on September 11 to maintain three key interest rates: the deposit rate at 2%, the main refinancing rate at 2.15%, and the marginal lending rate at 2.4% [1] - The ECB's latest forecast predicts the Eurozone inflation rate to be 2.1% in 2025, decreasing to 1.7% in 2026, and then rising to 1.9% in 2027. The core inflation rate is expected to reach 2.4% in 2025, drop to 1.9% in 2026, and further decline to 1.8% in 2027 [1] - Economic growth in the Eurozone is projected to be 1.2% for this year, with an expected growth of 1% in 2026 and an increase to 1.3% in 2027. The growth forecast for 2025 has been revised upward from 0.9% in June [1]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) decided to maintain its three key interest rates unchanged during its monetary policy meeting, which was the first after the recent US-EU trade agreement, amid concerns about economic growth and inflation stability in the Eurozone [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Decisions - The ECB's deposit facility rate, main refinancing rate, and marginal lending rate remain at 2.00%, 2.15%, and 2.40% respectively [2]. - Since starting the rate cut process in June 2024, the ECB has lowered rates eight times, with the last decision in July 2024 to keep rates unchanged [2]. Group 2: Economic Forecasts - The ECB maintains a medium-term inflation target of 2% for the Eurozone, with projected overall inflation rates of 2.1% in 2025, 1.7% in 2026, and 1.9% in 2027 [2]. - The latest economic growth forecast for the Eurozone is 1.2% for 2025, an increase from the previous prediction of 0.9% made in June [2]. - The Eurozone economy grew by 0.7% in the first half of the year, supported by resilient demand [2]. Group 3: Risks and Uncertainties - Higher tariffs, a stronger euro, and increased global competition are expected to suppress growth in the Eurozone [3][4]. - Geopolitical tensions and potential deterioration in international trade relations pose significant uncertainties that could further inhibit exports, investment, and consumption [4]. - The recent political turmoil in France, including the resignation of former Prime Minister Béru, raises concerns about debt levels and political stability in the Eurozone's second-largest economy [4]. Group 4: Future Challenges - The ECB's primary challenge may shift from inflation to political and fiscal risks within Europe [5]. - Analysts suggest that while the threshold for further rate cuts is high, the ECB may be forced to reconsider its stance in the coming months if inflation remains below target or economic growth stagnates [4].

Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde indicated that economic growth in the Eurozone may slow this quarter, despite a recent trade agreement with the U.S. reducing uncertainty, global trade conditions remain unclear [1] - Lagarde noted that the current 15% tariffs imposed by the U.S. on most European goods are slightly higher than the ECB's June assumptions but are "far below" the extreme rates envisioned by the bank [1] - The ECB is expected to maintain the deposit rate at 2% during the September meeting, following a pause in rate changes after eight consecutive cuts since June 2024 [1] - Lagarde mentioned that the ECB staff will consider the impact of the EU-U.S. trade agreement on the Eurozone economy in the upcoming September economic forecasts, which will guide future decisions [1] Group 2 - The Eurozone economy unexpectedly grew by 0.1% in the second quarter, demonstrating resilience amid trade and geopolitical pressures, with inflation hovering around the ECB's target of 2% [1] - Lagarde emphasized the Eurozone's resilience in the face of a challenging global environment earlier this year [2] - Lagarde confirmed her commitment to completing her term as ECB President, which will last until October 2027, amid rumors of her potential early departure [2]

Group 1: Economic Activity and PMI Data - The HCOB Eurozone Composite PMI index rose slightly from 50.6 in June to 50.9 in July, still below the long-term average of 52.4, indicating ongoing economic weakness in the Eurozone [1] - The Eurozone services PMI increased from 50.5 in June to 51.0 in July, but was below the market expectation of 51.2, reflecting a modest improvement in service sector activity [1] - Spain showed the strongest performance among major Eurozone economies, with a composite PMI rising from 52.1 in June to 54.7 in July, while France experienced a contraction with a PMI of 48.6 [1] Group 2: Employment and Business Confidence - Eurozone businesses increased employment for the fifth consecutive month in July, reaching the fastest growth rate in over a year, despite weak demand [2] - Business confidence declined for the first time since April, with optimism waning in both manufacturing and services sectors, leading to overall confidence falling below long-term averages [2] Group 3: Inflation and Monetary Policy - Cost pressures have decreased to the lowest level since October of the previous year, primarily driven by the service sector, while output price inflation slightly increased to a three-month high [2] - The European Central Bank (ECB) may consider further rate cuts in the second half of the year due to easing service sector inflation, despite many officials suggesting insufficient reasons for continued accommodative policies [3] - The recent EU-US trade agreement may negatively impact Eurozone exports and economic growth, raising concerns about the sustainability of the Eurozone's economic recovery [3]

Core Insights - Eurozone's economic growth in Q2 significantly slowed down but exceeded market expectations of zero growth, with a quarter-on-quarter growth rate dropping from 0.6% in Q1 to 0.1% in Q2. Year-on-year growth reached 1.4%, higher than the anticipated 1.2% [1][5] - There is a notable divergence within the Eurozone, as Germany and Italy, the largest and third-largest economies respectively, fell into recession [1][8] - The European Central Bank (ECB) has lowered its key interest rate to 2% over the past 13 months to stimulate the economy, but recent data suggests that the economic foundation is better than feared, leading to a reduced necessity for further policy easing [1][12] Economic Performance - Eurozone's GDP for Q2 showed a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.1%, down from 0.6% in Q1, while the EU overall grew by 0.2%, lower than the previous quarter's 0.5% [4][5] - Year-on-year GDP growth for the Eurozone was 1.4%, slightly down from 1.5% in the previous quarter, while the EU's growth was 1.5%, down from 1.6% [4][5] - Germany's economy contracted by 0.1% in Q2, following a 0.3% growth in Q1, with declines in machinery and construction investments [8] - Italy's economy unexpectedly shrank by 0.1%, contrary to expectations of slight growth, posing challenges for the government [8] Country-Specific Insights - France's economy grew by 0.3% in Q2, driven mainly by inventory increases, despite weak domestic demand [8] - Spain outperformed expectations with a growth of 0.7% in Q2 [9] - Ireland's economy experienced a contraction, while Lithuania and Austria recorded minimal growth of 0.2% and 0.1% respectively [9] Market Expectations - The market currently sees only a 50% chance of the ECB lowering interest rates again before December, reflecting a shift in expectations due to resilient economic performance [12] - There are indications that higher tariffs from new trade agreements may negatively impact the Eurozone's annual growth rate by 0.2 to 0.4 percentage points, but this has largely been factored into most forecasts [12]

Core Insights - The Eurozone experienced unexpected economic growth in the second quarter, leading to speculation that the European Central Bank (ECB) may refrain from further interest rate cuts [1] Economic Performance - The growth rate in the second quarter was slower compared to the previous quarter, but it indicates a recovery in private consumption within the Eurozone [1] - Vincent Stammer from Deutsche Bank noted that higher economic growth typically leads to increased prices [1] Monetary Policy Implications - Due to the economic growth, the ECB may feel the need to maintain current key interest rates rather than lowering them [1]

Group 1 - Eurozone economy unexpectedly expanded by 0.1% in Q2, contrary to analysts' expectations of zero growth [1] - Germany's economy contracted by 0.1% during the same period, indicating ongoing economic challenges [1] - France's economy grew by 0.3% in Q2, surpassing market expectations of 0.1% [1] - Spain's economy grew by 0.7% in Q2, up from 0.6% in Q1, continuing its role as a growth engine in the region [1] Group 2 - European Central Bank (ECB) maintains interest rates at 2%, with inflation nearing the 2% medium-term target [1] - ECB President Lagarde noted that the eurozone's economic performance has been slightly better than the bank's expectations for the year [1] - Deka Bank's chief economist highlighted the ongoing weakness in Germany's economic momentum compared to other European countries [2]

Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) decided to maintain key interest rates unchanged, marking the first pause in rate cuts since June of the previous year, amid moderate economic growth and inflation reaching the 2% target [1][2] - The ECB's deposit facility rate, main refinancing rate, and marginal lending rate remain at 2.00%, 2.15%, and 2.40% respectively, with inflation forecasts for 2025 and 2027 set at 2.0% and 2026 at 1.6% [1] - The uncertainty surrounding US-EU trade negotiations, particularly the potential for tariffs up to 30% on EU goods, is a significant external factor impacting the ECB's policy space [1][2] Group 2 - Analysts suggest that the ongoing trade negotiations are affecting corporate decision-making and may lead to a shift in production capacity towards the eurozone, potentially lowering product prices and increasing price instability [2] - The ECB's assessment indicates a 0.6% quarter-on-quarter growth in actual GDP for the eurozone in Q1, driven by preemptive shipping by businesses and stronger consumption and investment [2][3] - The July Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for the eurozone rose to 51 from 50.6 in June, indicating a notable expansion in the services sector, although manufacturing remains in contraction [2]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) has decided to maintain its key interest rates unchanged, emphasizing that current inflation has stabilized at the mid-term target of 2% and future policies will adopt a "data-dependent, gradual assessment" approach without pre-setting interest rate paths [1][5]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Decisions - The ECB's governing council unanimously decided to keep the three key interest rates unchanged during the July meeting [1]. - Future monetary policy will follow a "data-dependent" and "gradual meeting assessment" principle, considering inflation outlook, economic data, potential inflation dynamics, and the transmission effects of monetary policy [1][5]. - ECB President Lagarde stated that decisions will be based on the complete information available at each meeting, without pre-setting specific interest rate paths [1][5]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Eurozone's economic growth in Q1 exceeded expectations, driven by preemptive export expansions, recovering private consumption, and increased investment activities [1]. - The unemployment rate in May was 6.3%, close to the lowest level since the euro's introduction, supporting consumer resilience alongside actual income growth and healthy private sector balance sheets [2]. - The June annual inflation rate for the Eurozone was 2.0%, with energy prices rising month-on-month but remaining low year-on-year, and food inflation slightly decreasing to 3.1% [3]. Group 3: Challenges and Risks - High actual and expected tariffs, a strong euro, and geopolitical uncertainties have led to a decline in corporate investment willingness, posing a significant obstacle to current economic growth [2]. - Global trade tensions, deteriorating financial market sentiment, and ongoing geopolitical conflicts may suppress exports and drag down investment and consumption [3]. - The fragmentation of global supply chains is pushing up import prices, while extreme weather and climate crises could lead to unexpected increases in food prices [4]. Group 4: Financial Market Conditions - Since the last meeting, market interest rates, particularly long-term rates, have risen, but the cumulative effects of previous rate cuts continue to show [5]. - The new loan rate for enterprises in May decreased to 3.7%, while bond issuance costs fell to 3.6%, indicating an increase in direct financing [5]. - The ECB is prepared to adjust all tools within its mandate to ensure inflation remains sustainably stable at the target level and to maintain the smooth operation of monetary policy transmission mechanisms [5].

Core Insights - The European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde emphasized the need for urgent investment in defense and infrastructure to boost growth in the Eurozone and its economy [1] Group 1 - The ECB is focusing on strengthening the Eurozone's economic framework through targeted investments [1] - Lagarde's comments highlight the critical role of defense and infrastructure in driving economic recovery and growth [1]