Group 1 - The euro against the US dollar has risen to around 1.16, with a current quote of 1.1628, reflecting a 0.11% increase from the previous closing of 1.1615 [1] - Barclays has revised its prediction for the European Central Bank (ECB) to potentially cut interest rates in December instead of September, due to weak economic activity in the second half of the year [1] - The economist Mariano Sinha from Barclays noted that trade policy issues and the impact of early imports from the US have contributed to this economic slowdown [1] Group 2 - Barclays expects clearer signals regarding trade headwinds by December, which may alleviate concerns about inflation due to supply chain disruptions [1] - Confidence that the fiscal plan for 2026 will not reignite inflationary pressures may support a 25 basis point rate cut [1] - The terminal deposit rate of the ECB is projected to remain at 1.75% by 2026 [1] Group 3 - The resistance levels for the euro against the US dollar are identified at 1.1788 (July 24 high), 1.1830 (yearly high on July 1), and 1.1909 (September 3, 2021 high) [2] - Initial support levels are at the 100-day simple moving average of 1.1460, followed by the August 1 low of 1.1391 and the weekly low of 1.1210 from May 29 [2] - Momentum indicators show weakening upward momentum, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) dropping below 52 and the Average Directional Index (ADX) below 12, indicating a lack of market direction [2]

然而，最新数据显示欧元区经济展现出超乎预期的韧性，同时通胀率徘徊在欧洲央行2%的目标水平附 近。 消息人士指出，美国政府对欧盟大部分商品征收15%进口关税的影响基本符合欧洲央行此前的预期，并 未出现最坏情况。 除非即将公布的8月通胀数据和经济活动调查结果出现意外恶化，否则欧洲央行9月11日降息的必要性不 大。 周一（8月25日）亚市早盘，欧元/美元走势下跌，最新欧元兑美元汇率报1.1695，跌幅0.17%，在最近 一次会议上，欧洲央行维持利率不变，而行长拉加德在新闻发布会上的鹰派言论，以及欧盟与美国的贸 易协议，引发了市场对长期暂停降息的猜测。 目前，投资者对欧洲央行年底前降息的预期已降至10个基点。市场预计12月前再次降息25个基点的可能 性为45%。 多位消息人士称，欧洲央行在9月份会议上很可能维持利率不变，但如果经济出现疲软迹象，最早可能 在秋季重新讨论进一步降息。 自欧洲央行7月暂停降息后，市场普遍预期央行将长期按兵不动。 消息人士还透露，欧洲央行最新的经济预测已将进一步降息纳入考量，该预测认为明年通胀率将暂时跌 破2%的目标。 这意味着欧洲央行有可能在10月30日和12月18日的会议上重新讨论货币政 ...

Core Viewpoint - A significant increase in a key wage growth indicator in the Eurozone has made the European Central Bank (ECB) more cautious regarding further interest rate cuts [1] Group 1: Wage Growth - In the second quarter, negotiated wages increased by 3.95% year-on-year, up from 2.46% in the first quarter, but still below the peak of 5.4% reached in 2024 [1] - The ECB's confidence in stabilizing inflation at 2% relies on a slowdown in wage growth and a decrease in price increases in labor-intensive service sectors, which are currently close to 3% [1] Group 2: Market Expectations - The market widely anticipates that the ECB will maintain the key deposit rate at 2% in September [1] - The ECB's tracking indicator for wages across 20 countries suggests that wage growth will significantly slow down by early next year [1]

（文章来源：第一财经） 据报道，欧洲央行管委内格尔表示，进一步降息的门槛很高。 ...

尽管欧盟与美国的贸易协议锁定了对美出口的更高关税，欧元区私营部门仍以15个月以来的最快速度增长，制造业结束了三年的 收缩态势。 周四S&P Global公布的数据显示： 8月份，欧元区综合采购经理人指数(PMI)从7月的50.9升至51.1，高于分析师预期的50.6。 欧元区8月制造业PMI从49.8升至50.5，为2022年6月以来首次突破荣枯线上方，远高于预期的49.5。 服务业PMI小幅下降至50.7，仍处于荣枯线上方。 欧元区两大经济体德国和法国经济活动均有所好转。 其中，德国私人部门活动意外加速，综合PMI升至50.9，制造业PMI跃升至49.9，接近三年来首次回到扩张区间。制造业产出指 数攀升至52.6，创41个月新高，新订单增长为2022年3月以来最快。法国综合PMI升至49.8好于预期，虽仍低于荣枯线但有所上 升。 汉堡商业银行首席经济师Cyrus de la Rubia表示，尽管面临美国关税、地缘政治不确定性等阻力，欧元区企业似乎应对良好。 数据公布后，欧元兑美元持稳于1.1656，德国10年期国债收益率上升2个基点至2.73%。这一表现将支持那些认为欧洲央行无需急 于进一步降息的官员观点。 ...

Group 1 - The euro against the US dollar has seen a slight decline, currently trading around 1.1644, down 0.06% from the previous close of 1.1651, indicating a stable but cautious market sentiment [1] - Eurozone retail sales increased by 0.3% in June, reversing the 0.3% decline in May, suggesting a recovery in consumer demand [1] - Strong domestic demand is becoming increasingly important for economic growth, potentially supporting growth in the second half of 2025 despite external challenges such as tariffs and a strong euro [1] Group 2 - The current trading range for the euro/dollar exchange rate is between 1.1455 and 1.1829, indicating a period of volatility without clear breakout directions [2] - The price movement is constrained by the Bollinger Bands, suggesting that the market may continue to oscillate within this range until clearer market drivers emerge [2]

Group 1: Economic Activity and PMI Data - The HCOB Eurozone Composite PMI index rose slightly from 50.6 in June to 50.9 in July, still below the long-term average of 52.4, indicating ongoing economic weakness in the Eurozone [1] - The Eurozone services PMI increased from 50.5 in June to 51.0 in July, but was below the market expectation of 51.2, reflecting a modest improvement in service sector activity [1] - Spain showed the strongest performance among major Eurozone economies, with a composite PMI rising from 52.1 in June to 54.7 in July, while France experienced a contraction with a PMI of 48.6 [1] Group 2: Employment and Business Confidence - Eurozone businesses increased employment for the fifth consecutive month in July, reaching the fastest growth rate in over a year, despite weak demand [2] - Business confidence declined for the first time since April, with optimism waning in both manufacturing and services sectors, leading to overall confidence falling below long-term averages [2] Group 3: Inflation and Monetary Policy - Cost pressures have decreased to the lowest level since October of the previous year, primarily driven by the service sector, while output price inflation slightly increased to a three-month high [2] - The European Central Bank (ECB) may consider further rate cuts in the second half of the year due to easing service sector inflation, despite many officials suggesting insufficient reasons for continued accommodative policies [3] - The recent EU-US trade agreement may negatively impact Eurozone exports and economic growth, raising concerns about the sustainability of the Eurozone's economic recovery [3]

Group 1 - The expectation of interest rate cuts in the US is likely to persist due to a weak labor market, with disappointing non-farm employment data reinforcing market predictions for a rate cut in September [1] - Continuous low non-farm employment numbers below 50,000 for six months could signal an economic recession, leading to increased market expectations for further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][2] - Barclays predicts the European Central Bank will cut rates in December instead of September, influenced by anticipated weak economic activity in the second half of the year [2] Group 2 - Concerns over the independence and reliability of official economic data have intensified following President Trump's claims of data manipulation and the dismissal of the Labor Statistics Bureau director [3][4] - The Korea Export-Import Bank forecasts a decline in South Korea's export value in Q3 2025 due to the impact of tariffs, projecting exports to reach approximately $167 billion, a year-on-year decrease of about 3% [3] - Analysts from Danske Bank expect the Bank of England to announce a rate cut in the upcoming decision, which may exert downward pressure on the British pound [4]

Core Viewpoint - Barclays predicts that the European Central Bank (ECB) may opt for a rate cut in December instead of September, reflecting concerns over economic activity in the second half of the year [1] Economic Activity - The adjustment in Barclays' forecast is attributed to weak economic activity in the latter half of the year, influenced by ongoing trade policy challenges and the earlier-than-expected imports from the U.S. [1] Trade and Inflation - By December, clearer signals regarding trade headwinds are expected, which may alleviate concerns about supply chain disruptions impacting inflation [1] Monetary Policy Outlook - Confidence in the 2026 fiscal plan not reigniting inflationary pressures is likely to support a 25 basis point rate cut [1] - Barclays anticipates that the terminal deposit rate of the ECB will remain at 1.75% by 2026 [1]

Group 1 - Eurozone inflation rate remained stable at 2.0% in July, confirming the European Central Bank's (ECB) moderate view on prices and supporting its decision to maintain interest rates after significant cuts [1] - Core inflation rate also held steady at 2.3%, with service prices slightly slowing but offset by a rebound in goods inflation [1] - ECB President Lagarde stated that the bank is in a "favorable position" regarding inflation and will not react to minor deviations from the target [1] Group 2 - Eurozone economic activity in Q2 showed better-than-expected growth, with July manufacturing PMI rising to 49.8, the highest level since July 2021 [2] - Industrial output increased for the fifth consecutive month, although the output index fell to 50.6, the lowest in four months [2] - Analysts noted that a framework trade agreement between the US and Europe could help reduce uncertainty, supporting the ongoing recovery in manufacturing [2] Group 3 - Future inflation may remain above ECB's expectations, indicating a need for caution regarding the re-pricing of ECB rate cut expectations [3] - The likelihood of further ECB rate cuts has decreased, with the core annual inflation rate holding at 2.3% and overall inflation expected to remain around 2% by year-end [3]