Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) maintained its policy interest rate at 2%, marking the first pause after eight consecutive rate cuts since June 2024 [3] - Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan have adjusted their expectations for further ECB rate cuts, with Goldman no longer expecting a cut this year and JPMorgan delaying its forecast from September to October [2][3] - ECB President Christine Lagarde indicated that the economic outlook is currently in a "good position," suggesting that rates may remain unchanged unless there is a significant deterioration in the economic outlook [3] Group 2 - The outcome of trade negotiations between the EU and the US remains uncertain, but there is speculation about a potential agreement that could impose a 15% tariff on EU goods [3] - Several major banks, including Bank of America, Barclays, Citigroup, Deutsche Bank, and Morgan Stanley, reaffirmed their expectations for a rate cut in September, although some analysts warned of increased risks to this prediction [4] - Market sentiment reflects uncertainty regarding the likelihood of further ECB rate cuts this year, with traders pricing in only a 30% chance of a rate reduction before the end of the year [4]

Core Viewpoint - JPMorgan expects the European Central Bank (ECB) to implement its next interest rate cut in October, a shift from the previous prediction of September [1] Group 1 - The change in the expected timing of the ECB's interest rate cut indicates a potential shift in monetary policy strategy [1]

智通财经7月24日电，交易员削减对欧洲央行9月降息的押注，预计概率为25%。 ...

交易员削减了对欧洲央行降息的押注，预计今年还将有20个基点的降息空间。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) has decided to maintain its current monetary policy, which aligns with market expectations. However, there are concerns regarding the potential for interest rate cuts if the euro continues to appreciate significantly [1] Group 1 - The ECB's decision to hold rates steady was anticipated by market participants [1] - The ongoing press conference is addressing the implications of the euro's strength on future monetary policy decisions [1] - There is speculation about whether ECB President Christine Lagarde will consider reinitiating interest rate cuts in response to a stronger euro [1]

Core Viewpoint - The chief economist of ING, Carsten Brzeski, maintains the expectation that the European Central Bank (ECB) will lower interest rates in September after a pause in today's meeting [1] Group 1 - Core inflation and service sector inflation remain above 2%, providing the ECB with little reason to move away from its current "comfort zone" [1] - If two more weak inflation data points emerge over the summer, along with hard data consistently underperforming soft data, a final rate cut may be seen in the September meeting [1]

金十数据7月24日讯，Mediolanum International Funds固定收益主管Daniel Loughney预计欧洲央行周四将 按兵不动，并预计尽管欧洲央行的宽松周期已接近尾声，但未来六个月内可能还会有一到两次降息。他 指出："持续的关税谈判将损害出口表现，削弱短期增长潜力，并通过增加本地供给对通胀构成下行压 力。"Loughney认为，欧洲财政支出增加将部分抵消这一影响，但由于基建和供给导向的特性，这一过 程更为渐进且可能产生积极供给效应。 机构：欧洲央行今晚料暂停降息 未来半年内或恢复降息 ...

金十数据7月23日讯，Algebris Investments的分析师Gabriele Foa在一份报告中表示，由于关税的不确定 性，欧洲央行的利率下降幅度可能超过市场目前的预期。这位投资组合经理表示："贸易紧张局势和关 税进展可能会使削减周期的终点略低于当前市场预期。"LSEG的数据显示，货币市场目前预计欧洲央行 将在12月再降息25个基点。Foa表示，关税对欧洲的溢出效应可能需要更长时间才能显现。 机构：关税不确定性可能会促使欧洲央行不止一次降息 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The passage of the U.S. stablecoin - related bill allowing pension funds to invest in assets like gold and digital currencies, the increased expectation of Powell's early departure and subsequent Fed rate - cuts, along with continuous gold purchases by global central banks and geopolitical risks, may make precious metal prices more likely to rise than fall. It is recommended that investors mainly set up long positions on price pull - backs. Specific support and resistance levels are provided for different gold and silver markets [1]. 3. Summary by Content a. Market Data - **Shanghai Gold**: On 2025 - 07 - 22, the closing price was 780.00 yuan/gram, up 3.00 yuan from the previous day and 7.80 yuan from last week. Trading volume was 49,546.00, an increase of 9,284.00 from the previous day and 22,476.00 from last week [1]. - **Shanghai Silver**: The closing price on 2025 - 07 - 22 was 9368.00 yuan/kg, up 142.00 yuan from the previous day and 259.00 yuan from last week. Trading volume was 537,430.00, an increase of 236,642.00 from the previous day and 53,632.00 from last week [1]. - **COMEX Gold**: The closing price on 2025 - 07 - 22 was 3444.00, up 33.70 from the previous day and 91.90 from last week. Trading volume was 217,981.00, an increase of 32,635.00 from the previous day and 37,040.00 from last week [1]. - **COMEX Silver**: The closing price on 2025 - 07 - 22 was 39.66, up 0.42 from the previous day and 1.25 from last week. Trading volume was 57,469.00, an increase of 7,611.00 from the previous day and a decrease of 18,727.00 from last week [1]. b. Important Information - **U.S. News**: Trump announced a trade deal with Japan where Japan will invest $550 billion in the U.S., and the U.S. will get 90% of the profits. There are also developments regarding Powell's "resignation" and calls for Fed rate - cuts. The U.S. House passed a stablecoin - related bill and inflation data showed mixed trends [1]. - **European News**: The European Central Bank cut interest rates in June, and there are expectations of further rate - cuts by the end of 2025. The eurozone and German (French) manufacturing PMI and CPI data have influenced market expectations [1]. - **UK News**: The Bank of England cut the key rate in May and continued bond - selling. With CPI data and GDP trends, there is an increased expectation of rate - cuts in August and by the end of 2025 [1]. - **Japan News**: The Bank of Japan raised rates in January and may reduce bond purchases in 2026. There is an expectation of a rate hike by the end of 2025 based on CPI data [1]. c. Price Ratios and Other Commodities - **Precious Metal Price Ratios**: The ratios of gold to silver prices in different markets (Shanghai, New York, London) showed certain changes on 2025 - 07 - 22 compared to previous days and weeks [1]. - **Other Commodities**: Prices of INE crude, ICE Brent crude, NYMEX crude, Shanghai copper, LME copper, Shanghai rebar, and Dalian iron ore also had their respective changes on 2025 - 07 - 22 [1]. d. Interest Rates and Stock Indices - **Interest Rates**: Shanghai inter - bank lending rates (SHIBOR), U.S. 10 - year Treasury yields, and inflation - adjusted yields had changes on 2025 - 07 - 22 [1]. - **Stock Indices**: Major global stock indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index, S&P 500, UK FTSE 100, French CAC40, German DAX, Japanese Nikkei 225, and South Korean Composite Index showed different trends on 2025 - 07 - 22 [1].

金十数据7月20日讯，欧洲央行可能选择暂缓降息，以应对特朗普关税带来的经济风险。在进入七周夏 休期前的最后一次决策中，政策制定者们周四可能会维持2%的利率不变，直到关税真正落地且其影响 能被更准确地评估。但政策制定者深知风险正在潜伏：除关税忧虑外，欧元走强抑制物价前景并进一步 挤压出口商，同时法国公共财政问题可能酝酿新的政治危机。在此背景下，欧洲央行内部或承认9月降 息可能性上升。摩根士丹利经济学家表示，基于此，行长拉加德在周四声明中可能会重申增长风险"倾 向于下行"。"我们预计委员会在7月24日会议后的措辞将与6月表述类似，为进一步降息保留可能性，但 不会作出承诺。" 欧洲央行或将按兵不动 拉加德可能重申增长下行风险 ...