Market Performance - The A-share market showed resilience today, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing up, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.58%. The overall stock performance ratio was 2510 gainers to 2799 losers, with a total trading volume of 2.07 trillion, aligning with the estimated range of 2.04 trillion to 2.20 trillion [1]. - The A-share market has recorded year-to-date gains of 18.41% for the Shanghai Composite Index and 29.87% for the Shenzhen Component Index, with a cumulative stock performance ratio of 4316 gainers to 1135 losers [3]. Sector Analysis - Among 90 industry sectors in the A-share market, only one sector, the liquor sector, has declined this year, with a drop of 20.15%. This sector has faced continuous declines for four consecutive years, indicating high valuation pressures and suggesting investors should avoid the liquor sector [3][4]. - The performance of various sectors shows mixed results, with some sectors like education and retail showing positive growth, while others like transportation and coal mining have experienced slight declines [4]. Future Outlook - The overall performance of the A-share market this year has been commendable, and there is hope for continued growth into 2026. Speculation remains about whether the market will start the new year positively next Monday [5].

本身悬念并不大，只差临门一脚。 在"人民币即将升破7"的预期徘徊近一个月后，来自高盛的分析师给了个关键助攻。 近日，高盛发布 《 2026年全球股市展望》，在提到人民币时， 根据其动态均衡汇率模型（GSDEER），高盛测算了人民币的公允价值，显示人 民币相对美元低估近30%。 点击按钮▲预约直播 " 基于美股的研究 ：在基本面不发生背离的情况下，汇率上涨 0.1 个百分点，股票估值则提升 3%—5% 。 " 不过，口号比数字更吸引人，报告说： 文 /巴九灵（微信公众号：吴晓波频道） 人民币汇率相对美元的低估程度和2000年代中期相当。 2000年， 美元兑人民币汇率年平均价大约是8.28，随后，人 民币进入长达近十年的升值周期，兑美元汇率升至6.1左右 。 高盛的测算给了市场更多"看多"的信心，令本就处于升值通道的离岸人民币，开始骤然发力。 12月25日上午，美元兑离岸人民币汇率快速升破7.0关口，创下15个月来的新高，并重新正式进入"6时代"。 2005—2025美元/人民币走势 图源：钜亨网 与此同时，在岸人民币汇率探底7.0053，距离"破7"只有一步之遥 。 中国外汇交易中心公布的人民币兑美元中间价也 ...

本文由 AI 算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 股票名称 板块名称 ["海南板块","福建板块","贵金属/有色","消费","商业航天/军工","CPO","英伟达概念"] 美联储降息、A股走势、板块分析 看多看空 内容中既提到月线大趋势基本维持上涨态势，不跌破关键位置不会出现月线级别的调 整，下跌后还有反弹机会；又指出盘面空方先出手打压，日线级别反弹较弱，市场存在不确定 性，且部分板块受美联储降息影响有回调风险，因此整体对A股的态度为中性。 今日市场动态如下：今晚美联储 12 月议息会议将落地，虽 CME 给的降息概率达 87%，但美联储内部 19 名成员中 10 人反对降息，降息存不确定性，若不降息，美股或受影响。 盘面方面，早盘震荡探底， 空方先打压，低点或在下午第一小时出现，尾盘多方护盘，今日收带下影线 K 线。此为时间窗口第三 天，反弹 6 小时属弱反弹，回踩目标 3780 - 3820 点区间，月线大趋势仍上涨，底限支撑 3800 点。 今 日上涨 1600 多家、下跌 3700 家，呈结构性行情。海南、福建板块等涨幅靠前，各板块操作有不同要 点。今日小震荡反弹，建议持股待涨，想做 ...

一、A股的大小伙伴们，周四A股即将开盘，对于今天A股走势，我在周四盘后表达了暂看空的观点，但我也强调了最终将取决于美联储的降息情况如何， 美联储降息将影响全球资本市场。 1、周三下午的反弹有望推动A股早盘高开，沪深两指将以涨幅开盘，这点将是千真万确的，沪指或高开在3905点之上。 2、开盘后，沪深两指将震荡上行，我相信最终沪深两指仍将以涨幅收盘，个股也将是涨多跌少的结果，今天A股不可能跌破3900点的。 周四A股 涨幅开盘 个股涨多 二、今天凌晨3:00，美联储宣布降息25个基点，符合市场预期，消息公布后，全球汇率包括我们的汇率纷纷走高，今天早上6:00，全球汇率开市并继续走 高，这就是美联储降息的影响。 三、因此我话不多说，我对今天A股走势的观点具体表述如下，欢迎大家围观点评。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The offshore RMB exchange rate has surpassed 7.08 against the US dollar as of November 26, marking a new high since October 14 of the previous year, with an appreciation of nearly 5% from the low of 7.43 during the "reciprocal tariffs" period in April [1][3] Exchange Rate Dynamics - The recent strengthening of the RMB is driven by several factors, including a weak US dollar, resilient domestic fundamentals, enhanced competitiveness of major economies, and the central bank's commitment to stabilizing the exchange rate [3] - The outlook for RMB appreciation remains solid through 2026, supported by a "loose US, stable China" monetary policy environment [3] Historical Context and Market Correlation - Since the 2015 "exchange rate reform," there has been a significant positive correlation between RMB exchange rates and A-share market performance, influenced by economic fundamentals, monetary policy, market risk appetite, and liquidity [3] - During the RMB appreciation cycles of 2017-2018 Q1 and 2020 Q2-2021, the A-share market experienced bullish trends, with foreign capital playing a crucial role in driving market performance [3][6][9] Sector Allocation Insights - In Q3 2025, the main sectors attracting northbound capital include power equipment, electronics, pharmaceuticals, banking, food and beverage, and machinery, with notable increases in allocation for electronics, power equipment, non-ferrous metals, machinery, and communications [1]

中经记者 谭志娟 北京报道 北京时间11月20日凌晨，美国联邦储备委员会（以下简称"美联储"）公布了10月联邦公开市场委员会 （FOMC）货币政策会议纪要。会议纪要显示，美联储官员对12月是否继续降息存在较大分歧。 会议纪要显示，许多与会者支持降低联邦基金利率目标区间，但同时也指出部分支持降息的成员对维持 利率不变同样可接受。另有数名官员反对降息。 美联储最终以10比2的投票结果通过降息25个基点，将联邦基金利率区间降至3.75%至4%。但此次纪要 表明决定是在激烈争论下勉强达成的共识，而12月是否会再度降息仍存在不确定性。 郭一鸣则表示："因为A股定价核心仍锚定国内基本面，当前稳健的货币政策与持续加码的稳增长措施 有望形成有效对冲，且市场前期已逐步消化部分外部预期，冲击幅度或处于可控范围。" 展望明年A股走势，郭一鸣预计，A股有望呈现"先抑后扬、逐步震荡上行"的慢牛格局。 "预计驱动因素将从当前的流动性宽松预期，逐步切换至基本面实质复苏的验证。全球主要国家宽财政 与宽货币的政策环境仍有利于需求回暖，国内企业盈利亦有望随经济修复而稳步回升，共同支撑市场的 中长期趋势。"郭一鸣解释说。 巨丰投顾投资顾问总监郭一 ...

Market Overview - A-shares are experiencing a rebound after a period of decline, with the market initially down nearly 0.5% before a rapid recovery by midday [1] - The current market conditions are challenging, with significant support preventing further declines, while upward movements face resistance [1] Sector Performance - The securities sector is showing strong performance, contributing to the market's rebound, which is primarily driven by financial stocks rather than semiconductors [3] - The Contract Research Organization (CRO) sector is continuing to decline, with recent attempts at recovery potentially failing this time [5][6] - The liquor sector is experiencing a resurgence, despite earlier reports of weak sales during the peak season [7] Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to wait for lower entry points before making investment decisions, as clarity in market direction is expected soon [2][3] - The focus remains on long-term strategies rather than short-term gains, with an emphasis on patience and timing in the market [3][7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that major financial data in China is expected to improve in the fourth quarter, supported by ongoing policy efforts, with the RMB exchange rate likely to show a stable upward trend [1][2] - The total financing in China is projected to expand steadily, with high-speed growth in key areas and government bond financing remaining at a high level [2] - Interest rates are expected to continue to decline moderately, providing a favorable monetary environment for real economy financing [2] Group 2 - The global economic growth outlook is mixed, with increasing uncertainties on the demand side and relative stability on the supply side [3] - The probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates again has increased, with expectations of two rate cuts in the fourth quarter [3] - Geopolitical factors will continue to significantly influence global capital flows, and the dollar index is expected to remain weak [3]

Core Viewpoint - The survey conducted by Data Treasure indicates a significant divergence in opinions regarding the A-share market's performance for the upcoming week, with a notable portion of respondents expecting a sideways movement between 3800 and 4000 points [1] Group 1: Market Sentiment - 44% of respondents believe the A-share market will experience sideways fluctuations between 3800 and 4000 points [1] - The proportion of bullish and bearish respondents is nearly equal, with 26% each anticipating a rally to 4000 points and a decline below 3800 points, respectively [1] Group 2: Sector Outlook - The technology and consumer sectors have seen a 3 percentage point increase in positive sentiment, now standing at 38% and 10%, respectively [1] - The non-ferrous metals sector has experienced a significant decline, dropping by 5 percentage points to a current sentiment of 10% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The current trend in the Chinese capital market is supported by three main pillars: the breaking of economic globalization under a century of changes, the historical elevation of the capital market's positioning since the 20th National Congress, and the risk appetite boost from strategic adjustments towards the U.S. [1] Market Dynamics - The market is currently in the "valuation-driven" phase, focusing on three core themes: hard power (such as military industry), technology to counter "neck-holding" issues, and leading manufacturing companies expanding internationally [1] - Once the market confirms the prospects of China's deepening role in global development, it will shift to a "fundamentals-driven" phase, characterized by diverse performance across sectors as they improve based on enhanced global discourse power [1] Market Assessment - The overall market valuation is deemed reasonable, with market capitalization not aligning with economic status, stable investor sentiment, and diversified institutional holdings reducing the risk of a market crash [1] - The transition from the bond market to the stock market, along with foreign capital inflows, presents significant potential for incremental funding, indicating that the market is still in the early stages of the "valuation-driven" phase [1] - Systematic risks for market fluctuations are considered manageable at this stage [1]