10月份，10年读书会的新书，讲得非常清楚。炒股就是证道，找到自己内心的坚守，并持续做即可。 板块上： 第一：证券持续大涨 今天的反攻，跟半导体没多大关系了，主要在金融上，尤其是证券板块。 今早的直播，我说A股现在是很难，向下，有很大的托盘力量，无法自由向下；向上吧，每次总遇到阻 力。 这种走势，让多头、空头，都很崩溃。 A股临近节前，出现探底回升。早盘大盘走势一度跌幅近0.5%，截止到中午收盘快速拉升。 不过，我觉得不用太着急，很快就会分出胜负了。 到时候，你再找低位的下手即可。 第三：白酒反攻回来了 早上还写了个文章，说白酒的销售一般，出现旺季不旺的走势。 今天白酒直接来个反攻了，也该如此操作。不过，我依旧不动，没到最好的时刻。小营小利，不是我的 追求。 别的不多说了，这两天不少朋友陆陆续续外出度假，大家假期注意安全、路上慢点开车，健康、安全第 一！ 我是聪哥，一个立志花10年让1亿粉丝轻松看懂财经的男人，关注我，一起向上成长。 以上仅为个人看法，不作为任何建议！ 虽然我持续关注证券的走势，不过，我丝毫没兴趣，等待左侧再玩。 第二：CRO继续下滑 过去多次探底回升的CRO，这次可能会失灵。 今天走势就是一 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that major financial data in China is expected to improve in the fourth quarter, supported by ongoing policy efforts, with the RMB exchange rate likely to show a stable upward trend [1][2] - The total financing in China is projected to expand steadily, with high-speed growth in key areas and government bond financing remaining at a high level [2] - Interest rates are expected to continue to decline moderately, providing a favorable monetary environment for real economy financing [2] Group 2 - The global economic growth outlook is mixed, with increasing uncertainties on the demand side and relative stability on the supply side [3] - The probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates again has increased, with expectations of two rate cuts in the fourth quarter [3] - Geopolitical factors will continue to significantly influence global capital flows, and the dollar index is expected to remain weak [3]

Core Viewpoint - The survey conducted by Data Treasure indicates a significant divergence in opinions regarding the A-share market's performance for the upcoming week, with a notable portion of respondents expecting a sideways movement between 3800 and 4000 points [1] Group 1: Market Sentiment - 44% of respondents believe the A-share market will experience sideways fluctuations between 3800 and 4000 points [1] - The proportion of bullish and bearish respondents is nearly equal, with 26% each anticipating a rally to 4000 points and a decline below 3800 points, respectively [1] Group 2: Sector Outlook - The technology and consumer sectors have seen a 3 percentage point increase in positive sentiment, now standing at 38% and 10%, respectively [1] - The non-ferrous metals sector has experienced a significant decline, dropping by 5 percentage points to a current sentiment of 10% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The current trend in the Chinese capital market is supported by three main pillars: the breaking of economic globalization under a century of changes, the historical elevation of the capital market's positioning since the 20th National Congress, and the risk appetite boost from strategic adjustments towards the U.S. [1] Market Dynamics - The market is currently in the "valuation-driven" phase, focusing on three core themes: hard power (such as military industry), technology to counter "neck-holding" issues, and leading manufacturing companies expanding internationally [1] - Once the market confirms the prospects of China's deepening role in global development, it will shift to a "fundamentals-driven" phase, characterized by diverse performance across sectors as they improve based on enhanced global discourse power [1] Market Assessment - The overall market valuation is deemed reasonable, with market capitalization not aligning with economic status, stable investor sentiment, and diversified institutional holdings reducing the risk of a market crash [1] - The transition from the bond market to the stock market, along with foreign capital inflows, presents significant potential for incremental funding, indicating that the market is still in the early stages of the "valuation-driven" phase [1] - Systematic risks for market fluctuations are considered manageable at this stage [1]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a reduction in the target range for the federal funds rate from 4.25%-4.50% to 4.0%-4.25%, marking a 25 basis points cut and the first rate decrease since 2025 [1] - Historical analysis shows that during previous Federal Reserve rate cut cycles, the A-share market exhibited varying performance, with significant declines noted in certain periods [4] - For instance, during the 2001 rate cut period, the cumulative reduction was 475 basis points, and the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 20.35% [4] Group 2 - In the 2008 financial crisis, the Federal Reserve cut rates 10 times, totaling a 500 basis points reduction, while the Shanghai Composite Index experienced a dramatic decline of 63.57% [4] - The data indicates that the A-share market's performance during rate cuts has often been negative, suggesting a potential correlation between rate cuts and market downturns [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve announced a reduction in the target range for the federal funds rate from 4.25%-4.50% to 4.0%-4.25%, marking the first rate cut since 2025, with a decrease of 25 basis points [1]. Group 1: Historical Context of Rate Cuts and A-Share Performance - In the past rate cut cycles, the A-share market has shown varied performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index (沪指) increasing by 4.91% during the 1998 rate cut period [4]. - During the 2001 rate cut cycle, which saw a cumulative reduction of 475 basis points, the Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 20.35% [4]. - In the 2009 financial crisis, after 10 rate cuts totaling 500 basis points, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 63.57% [5]. - The 2020 rate cuts, totaling 150 basis points due to the COVID-19 pandemic, resulted in a decline of 6.12% in the Shanghai Composite Index [5]. - The most recent rate cut cycle in 2024, with a cumulative reduction of 100 basis points, led to a 24.02% increase in the Shanghai Composite Index [5].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to decline tomorrow based on three key signals observed in the market [1] Group 1: Market Signals - The semiconductor and Sci-Tech 50 indices opened high but closed lower, indicating that major players are taking profits in the tech sector ahead of the weekend [1] - The 30-year government bonds have stabilized and are above the 5-day moving average, showing a rebound trend, while the Shanghai Composite Index has recently formed two bearish candles, confirming a short-term top pattern [1] - The intraday trading of the market showed rapid surges and declines, suggesting strong control by major funds, which may lead to retail investors who chased the market today facing downward pressure tomorrow [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - The 17th is identified as a turning point, and if the market closes in the red tomorrow, there is potential for an upward movement on Wednesday [1]

Group 1 - The article discusses the relationship between the depreciation of the US dollar and the performance of the stock market, suggesting that a weaker dollar can lead to better stock market performance [1] - It raises the question of whether the exchange rate of the Chinese yuan against the US dollar can influence the A-share market [1] - The article explores the potential for constructing quantitative timing strategies based on macroeconomic indicators and whether these strategies can outperform the market [1]

Monetary Market Overview - The central bank's OMO net injection this week was CNY 13,652 billion, with CNY 2,200 billion in treasury cash deposits maturing[3] - The average daily transaction volume of pledged repos decreased by CNY 1 trillion to CNY 7.1 trillion, with overall pledged repo volume lower than last week[3] - The new caliber funding gap rose to -640 on Tuesday but fell to -4,625 by Friday, remaining above last week's -5,511[3] Market Reactions and Trends - A-share market strength and the freezing of funds for new listings on the Beijing Stock Exchange have been suggested as factors influencing market adjustments[3] - The average DR001 rate for August was 1.32%, indicating that the central bank may tolerate increased funding volatility in the latter half of the month[3] - Government bond net payments this week totaled CNY 2,948 billion, with next week's treasury payment scale expected to be CNY 2,370 billion[3] Future Projections - The forecast for September includes CNY 12,900 billion in treasury issuance and a net financing of CNY 5,300 billion[4] - The overall government bond issuance scale for August was CNY 2.33 trillion, with a net financing scale of CNY 1.33 trillion, slightly lower than previous expectations[4] - Next week, the government bond net payment scale is projected to decrease to CNY 2,114 billion[4]

Market Sentiment - The A-share market has shown confusion and uncertainty, with recent price movements contradicting previous predictions [1][2] - A bearish outlook is expressed following the formation of two consecutive doji candlesticks, indicating potential downward movement [1][2] Sector Performance - Lithium mining stocks have experienced a significant rebound, driven by production halts in Jiangxi Yichun, which accounts for approximately 12.5% of domestic output, creating a substantial market gap [3] - Banking stocks have continued to decline after a brief recovery, with expectations of further downward movement [4][5] - The liquor sector, particularly Moutai, has seen a collective surge, with a short-term price floor identified around 1400 yuan [6][7] Investment Strategy - A cautious approach is maintained, with a focus on waiting for clearer investment opportunities rather than making impulsive decisions [7][8]