Report Overview - Report Date: July 21, 2025 - Analyst: Wang Mingwei -从业资格号: F0283029 - Investment Consulting Number: Z0010442 - Contact Information: TEL: 0575 - 85226759 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. The USDA's South American production forecast for the 24/25 season is high, the Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, and the demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the US biodiesel policy for soybean oil supports the increase in biodiesel consumption. The imposition of tariffs on Canadian rapeseed in China has led to the rise of the rapeseed sector. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and the import inventory is stable. The easing of Sino - US and Sino - Canadian relations affects the market at the macro level [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Views Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report shows that in May, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 9.8% month - on - month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% month - on - month to 1.49 million tons, and the end - of - month inventory decreased by 2.6% month - on - month to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, and the production cut is less than expected. Currently, the shipping survey agency shows that the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month - on - month. Subsequently, it will enter the production - increasing season, and the supply of palm oil will increase [2] - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8414, with a basis of 254, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [2] - **Inventory**: On July 4, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 880,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 11.7% higher year - on - year [2] - **Market**: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward [2] - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main soybean oil contract have decreased [2] - **Expectation**: The soybean oil Y2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 7950 - 8350 [2] Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report data is the same, and the subsequent supply is expected to increase [3] - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 9048, with a basis of 84, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [3] - **Inventory**: On July 4, the port inventory of palm oil was 380,000 tons, down 10,000 tons from the previous period and 34.1% lower year - on - year [3] - **Market**: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward [3] - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main palm oil contract have increased [3] - **Expectation**: The palm oil P2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8850 - 9250 [3] Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report data is the same as above, and the subsequent supply is expected to increase [4] - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9691, with a basis of 105, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [4] - **Inventory**: On July 4, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 650,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 3.2% higher year - on - year [4] - **Market**: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward [4] - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have decreased [4] - **Expectation**: The rapeseed oil OI2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9250 - 9650 [4] Recent Bullish and Bearish Analysis - **Bullish Factors**: The US soybean stock - to - use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply [5] - **Bearish Factors**: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high historical level, the domestic inventory of oils and fats is continuously increasing, the macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [5] - **Main Logic**: The global fundamentals of oils and fats are relatively loose [5] Supply - Related - **Imported Soybean Inventory**: Mentioned but no specific data provided [6] - **Soybean Oil Inventory**: Data on July 4 shows a commercial inventory of 880,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 11.7% higher year - on - year [2] - **Palm Oil Inventory**: On July 4, the port inventory was 380,000 tons, down 10,000 tons from the previous period and 34.1% lower year - on - year [3] - **Rapeseed Oil Inventory**: On July 4, the commercial inventory was 650,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 3.2% higher year - on - year [4] - **Rapeseed Inventory**: Data presented in a chart from 2015 - 2025, but no specific value mentioned [21][22] - **Domestic Total Oil and Fat Inventory**: Data presented in a chart from 2015 - 2025, but no specific value mentioned [23][24] Demand - Related - **Soybean Oil Apparent Consumption**: Data presented in a chart from 2015 - 2025, but no specific value mentioned [13][14] - **Soybean Meal Apparent Consumption**: Data presented in a chart from 2015 - 2025, but no specific value mentioned [15][16]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for the industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The prices of the three major oils oscillated yesterday. Indonesia's plan to prepare the B50 program boosted market confidence, but the bumper harvest in South America exerted pressure on the market, resulting in an overall continuation of the oscillation [3] Group 3: Market Analysis Futures - The closing price of the palm oil 2509 contract yesterday was 8,796.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of +74 yuan and a幅度 of +0.85% - The closing price of the soybean oil 2509 contract yesterday was 8,072.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of +30.00 yuan and a幅度 of +0.37% - The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2509 contract yesterday was 9,440.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of -30.00 yuan and a幅度 of -0.32% [1] Spot - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 8,830.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of +40.00 yuan and a幅度 of +0.46%, and the spot basis was P09 + 34.00, with a环比 change of -34.00 yuan - The spot price of first-grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8,210.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of +10.00 yuan/ton and a幅度 of +0.12%, and the spot basis was Y09 + 138.00, with a环比 change of -20.00 yuan - The spot price of fourth-grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,560.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of -30.00 yuan and a幅度 of -0.31%, and the spot basis was OI09 + 120.00, with a环比 change of +0.00 yuan [1] Group 4: Recent Market Consultation Summary Brazil - The Brazilian Vegetable Oil Industry Association (Abiove) raised its production estimates for Brazilian soybean meal and soybean oil in 2025 - The estimated export revenue of the Brazilian soybean complex (grains, soybean meal, and soybean oil) in 2025 is 53.66 billion US dollars, compared to the May forecast of 53.38 billion US dollars - The estimated soybean production in Brazil in 2025 reached a record 169.7 million tons, unchanged from the June forecast - The estimated soybean processing volume in Brazil in 2025 was raised to 57.8 million tons, compared to the June forecast of 57.5 million tons - The estimated soybean export volume in Brazil in 2025 was raised to 109 million tons, compared to the June forecast of 108.2 million tons [2] United States - The net sales of US soybean exports in the 2024/2025 season were 272,000 tons, compared to 503,000 tons the previous week; the net sales of soybeans in the 2025/2026 season were 530,000 tons, compared to 248,000 tons the previous week - The export shipments of US soybeans in the 2024/2025 season were 276,000 tons, compared to 396,000 tons the previous week - The net sales of US soybeans to China in the 2024/2025 season were 0 tons, the same as the previous week; the net sales of soybeans to China in the 2025/2026 season were 0 tons, the same as the previous week - The cumulative sales of US soybeans to China in the 2024/2025 season were 22.478 million tons, the same as the previous week; the export shipments of US soybeans to China in the 2024/2025 season were 0 tons, the same as the previous week - The cumulative shipments of US soybeans to China in the 2024/2025 season were 22.478 million tons, the same as the previous week; the unshipped US soybeans to China in the 2024/2025 season were 0 tons, the same as the previous week; the unshipped US soybeans to China in the 2025/2026 season were 0 tons, the same as the previous week [2] Indonesia - An Indonesian energy department official said that Indonesia is studying how to increase the biodiesel blending ratio to 50%, and the relevant research is expected to be completed by the end of the year. Whether to implement B50 in 2026 has not been determined, and the government needs to calculate the demand for palm oil and the financial support plan [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [3] 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The global soybean supply is abundant, and the prices of the three major oils are fluctuating. Brazil's soybean harvest is confirmed, the weather in US soybean - growing areas is favorable with a high good - rate, and the future weather risk is low, leading to a strong overall harvest expectation. The supply side will gradually face pressure [2] 3. Summary by Related Content Market Analysis - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of the palm oil 2509 contract was 8708.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan or 0.46% compared to the previous day; the closing price of the soybean oil 2509 contract was 8012.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 18.00 yuan or 0.23%; the closing price of the rapeseed oil 2509 contract was 9404.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20.00 yuan or 0.21% [1] - **Spot Prices**: In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 8740.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30.00 yuan or 0.34%, with a spot basis of P09 + 32.00, an increase of 10.00 yuan; in the Tianjin region, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8160.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 20.00 yuan/ton or 0.25%, with a spot basis of Y09 + 148.00, an increase of 2.00 yuan; in the Jiangsu region, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 9520.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30.00 yuan or 0.31%, with a spot basis of OI09 + 116.00, a decrease of 10.00 yuan [1] - **Market News**: As of July 13, the EU's 2025/26 soybean imports were 340,597 tons, compared to 495,953 tons in the same period last year; the EU's 2025/26 palm oil imports were 63,393 tons, compared to 116,181 tons in the same period last year. From July 1 - 15, Malaysia's palm oil exports were 621,770 tons (ITS data), a 6.16% decrease from the same period last month, and 574,121 tons (Amspec data), a 5.29% decrease from the same period last month. As of July 15, the national soybean oil port inventory was 932,000 tons, a 24,000 - ton increase from the previous week; as of July 14, the national imported soybean port inventory was 646,277 tons, a 9,908 - ton increase from July 7 [2] Strategy - The strategy is to maintain a neutral stance [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for the oil industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The prices of the three major oils oscillated and declined yesterday. With the increase in soybean arrivals and the expectation of continued arrivals in the future, coupled with the strong expectation of a bumper North American soybean harvest, if the China-US negotiation goes smoothly and more US soybeans are purchased, there will be greater pressure later [3] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of the palm oil 2509 contract yesterday was 8,466.00 yuan/ton, a change of -6 yuan or -0.07% compared to the previous day; the closing price of the soybean oil 2509 contract was 7,894.00 yuan/ton, a change of -50.00 yuan or -0.63%; the closing price of the rapeseed oil 2509 contract was 9,548.00 yuan/ton, a change of -59.00 yuan or -0.61% [1] - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 8,510.00 yuan/ton, a change of +20.00 yuan or +0.24%, and the spot basis was P09 + 44.00, a change of +26.00 yuan; the spot price of first-grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8,030.00 yuan/ton, a change of -70.00 yuan/ton or -0.86%, and the spot basis was Y09 + 136.00, a change of -20.00 yuan; the spot price of fourth-grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,680.00 yuan/ton, a change of -60.00 yuan or -0.62%, and the spot basis was OI09 + 132.00, a change of -1.00 yuan [1] - **Inventory Data**: As of July 4, 2025 (Week 27), the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions across the country was 538,100 tons, an increase of 700 tons or 0.13% compared to the previous week, and an increase of 65,000 tons or 13.73% compared to 473,100 tons last year. As of July 7, 2025, the port inventory of imported soybeans across the country was 636,369 tons, an increase of 26,440 tons compared to 609,929 tons on June 30 [2] - **Market News**: The agriculture minister of Telangana in India called on the central government to modify its palm oil import policy, requesting to raise the palm oil import tariff to 44% and set a minimum guaranteed price of 25,000 rupees per ton for palm oil. Bunge will transport 30,000 tons of Argentine soybean meal to China from a terminal in the Rosario port area, which will be Argentina's first export of soybean meal to China [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of the three major oils fluctuated yesterday. Recently, the oil market has returned to fundamental trading, and the market is oscillating and adjusting [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of the palm oil 2509 contract was 8,478 yuan/ton, a change of +38 yuan or +0.45% compared to the previous day; the closing price of the soybean oil 2509 contract was 7,994 yuan/ton, a change of -24 yuan or -0.30%; the closing price of the rapeseed oil 2509 contract was 9,619 yuan/ton, with no change [1] - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 8,520 yuan/ton, a change of +80 yuan or +0.95%, with a spot basis of P09 + 42 yuan; the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8,160 yuan/ton, with no change, and a spot basis of Y09 + 166 yuan; the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,750 yuan/ton, a change of +40 yuan or +0.41%, with a spot basis of OI09 + 131 yuan [1] Recent Market Information - **Drought in the US**: As of the week ending July 1, about 8% of the US soybean planting areas were affected by drought, compared with 12% in the previous week and 9% in the same period last year [2] - **Export Sales**: Private exporters reported export sales of 150,000 tons of corn, 226,000 tons of soybeans, and 195,000 tons of soybean meal to unknown destinations. The net sales of US soybean oil exports for the 2024/2025 season were 12,000 tons, compared with 4,000 tons in the previous week; the net sales for the 2025/2026 season were 0 tons, the same as the previous week. The export shipments of US soybean oil for the 2024/2025 season were 6,000 tons, the same as the previous week [2] - **Indonesian Palm Oil**: The Indonesian government promised to revoke the license of a palm oil plantation operating illegally in the Tesso Nilo National Park in Riau province [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - International situations are volatile, causing the prices of oils and fats to fluctuate. The market is influenced by multiple factors, including production, exports, and policies, leading to a continuation of the volatile trend [1][3] Group 3: Summary of Market Analysis Futures Prices - The closing price of the palm oil 2509 contract was 8,446.00 yuan/ton, with a daily change of +10 yuan and a change rate of +0.12% - The closing price of the soybean oil 2509 contract was 7,972.00 yuan/ton, with a daily change of +12.00 yuan and a change rate of +0.15% - The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2509 contract was 9,583.00 yuan/ton, with a daily change of +78.00 yuan and a change rate of +0.82% [1] Spot Prices - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 8,730.00 yuan/ton, with a daily change of +30.00 yuan and a change rate of +0.34%. The spot basis was P09 + 284.00, with a daily change of +20.00 yuan - The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8,190.00 yuan/ton, with a daily change of - 10.00 yuan/ton and a change rate of - 0.12%. The spot basis was Y09 + 218.00, with a daily change of - 22.00 yuan - The spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,780.00 yuan/ton, with a daily change of +70.00 yuan and a change rate of +0.72%. The spot basis was OI09 + 197.00, with a daily change of - 8.00 yuan [1] Market News - Due to frequent spring rainfall in Arkansas, some soybean fields may not be planted, and the re - planting of some soybeans is uncertain. The state agricultural department is watching a "two - week deep - green" window period for rice. Forecasted rainfall may reduce water costs for some farms but also cause problems for other crops - The French Ministry of Agriculture predicts that the winter barley and rapeseed yields in 2025 will rebound strongly compared to 2024. The 2025 winter rapeseed yield is expected to reach 4.2 million tons, a 9.4% increase from 2024 [2] Production and Export Data - SPPOMA data shows that the palm oil production in Malaysia from June 1 - 15, 2025, decreased by 4% compared to the previous month - ITS, SGS, and AmSpec data show that the palm oil exports from Malaysia from June 1 - 15, 2025, increased by 26.3%, 14.3%, and 17.77% respectively compared to the previous month. The U.S. biodiesel policy is favorable, resulting in a mixed market situation and continued price fluctuations [3] Group 4: Figures in the Report - The report includes 30 figures related to the prices, production, exports, inventory, and other aspects of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, such as daily average prices, futures closing prices, basis, import and trading profits, and monthly production and export volumes [5]

油脂日报 | 2025-06-06 油脂结构调整，维持震荡 油脂观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2509合约8126.00元/吨，环比变化-4元，幅度-0.05%；昨日收盘豆油2509合约7676.00元 /吨，环比变化-12.00元，幅度-0.16%；昨日收盘菜油2509合约9152.00元/吨，环比变化+51.00元，幅度+0.56%。现 货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价8480.00元/吨，环比变化-40.00元，幅度-0.47%，现货基差P09+354.00，环比变化-36.00 元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格7880.00元/吨，环比变化-20.00元/吨，幅度-0.25%，现货基差Y09+204.00，环比变 化-8.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9350.00元/吨，环比变化+70.00元，幅度+0.75%，现货基差OI09+198.00， 环比变化+19.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：USDA最新干旱报告显示，截至6月3日当周，约16%的美国大豆种植区域受到干旱影响，而此 前一周为17%。巴西全国谷物出口商协会（Anec）基于船运计划数据预测，6月1日至7日期间，巴西大豆出口量为 490.1 ...

基本面维持稳定，油脂价格震荡 油脂观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2509合约8076.00元/吨，环比变化+32元，幅度+0.40%；昨日收盘豆油2509合约7712.00 元/吨，环比变化-28.00元，幅度-0.36%；昨日收盘菜油2509合约9403.00元/吨，环比变化-41.00元，幅度-0.43%。现 货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价8530.00元/吨，环比变化+80.00元，幅度+0.95%，现货基差P09+454.00，环比变化 +48.00元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格7920.00元/吨，环比变化+0.00元/吨，幅度+0.00%，现货基差Y09+208.00， 环比变化+28.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9580.00元/吨，环比变化-40.00元，幅度-0.42%，现货基差 OI09+177.00，环比变化+1.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：美国农业部（USDA）周三凌晨公布的每周作物生长报告显示，截至5月25日当周，美国大豆 种植率为76%，低于市场预期的78%，此前一周为66%，去年同期为66%，五年均值为68%；美国玉米种植率为87%， 低于市场预期的88%，此前一周为7 ...

油脂日报 | 2025-05-20 油脂供应宽松，价格震荡运行 油脂观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2509合约7998.00元/吨，环比变化+14元，幅度+0.18%；昨日收盘豆油2509合约7776.00 元/吨，环比变化+22.00元，幅度+0.28%；昨日收盘菜油2509合约9361.00元/吨，环比变化+84.00元，幅度+0.91%。 现货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价8510.00元/吨，环比变化-50.00元，幅度-0.58%，现货基差P09+512.00，环比变 化-64.00元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8050.00元/吨，环比变化-40.00元/吨，幅度-0.49%，现货基差Y09+274.00， 环比变化-62.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9540.00元/吨，环比变化+80.00元，幅度+0.85%，现货基差 OI09+179.00，环比变化-4.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：南部半岛棕榈油压榨商协会（SPPOMA）数据显示，2025年5月1-15日马来西亚棕榈油单产增 加6.34%，出油率增加0.41%，产量增加8.50%。巴西南里奥格兰德州农业厅（Emater）发布的数据显 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Operation ratings for different agricultural products: unclear ratings for "ななな" (soybean No.1), "女女女" (soybean meal), ☆☆☆ for soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, and corn; ★☆★ for pig and egg [1] Core Views - Short - term attention should be paid to the supply pattern change of imported soybeans from tight to loose, and also to policy and supply - demand changes [2] - The soybean meal futures may be strong in the short - term, and its upward momentum will weaken when Brazilian soybean procurement speeds up and North American weather risks decrease [3] - The prices of soybean oil and palm oil will fluctuate repeatedly due to factors such as low procurement progress of Chinese third - quarter soybean shipments and palm oil's production increase period [4] - The downward space of rapeseed meal is limited, and investors can pay attention to later long - position opportunities [6] - The corn futures continue to rise, and the market situation may expand after the domestic grain - right conversion is completed [7] - The pig futures are weak, and attention should be paid to the decline space of spot prices as the number and weight of pig slaughter increase [8] - The egg price is expected to be weak in the long - term due to factors such as seasonal decline and capacity release [9] Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean - The domestic soybean main contract significantly reduced positions before the holiday, and the reserve soybeans are still being released. After the May Day holiday, soybean supply will change from tight to loose, and short - term attention should be paid to policies and supply - demand [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - Near the May Day holiday, soybean meal significantly reduced positions. After the holiday, the supply pattern will change, and attention should be paid to the pressure on spot and basis. The soybean meal futures may be strong in the short - term [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Before the May Day holiday, soybean oil and palm oil were relatively resistant to decline. After the holiday, attention should be paid to the pressure on soybean oil spot and basis. The prices of the two oils will fluctuate repeatedly [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - After the May Day holiday, the soybean shortage situation will ease. The proportion of soybean meal in feed is expected to decrease. The domestic inventory of rapeseed products has declined, and the downward space of rapeseed meal is limited [6] Corn - Corn futures continue to rise. The port inventory pressure has decreased, and the downstream processing capacity has recovered. There are differences among traders, and the market situation may expand [7] Pig - The pig futures are weak, and the 11 - month contract hit a new low. The spot price is stable. The number and weight of pig slaughter are expected to increase, and attention should be paid to the decline of spot prices [8] Egg - The egg spot price is weak, and the futures price declined before the holiday. After the holiday, the demand will be weak, and the egg price is expected to be weak in the long - term [9]