行业 油脂 日期 2025 年 12 月 23 日 研究员：余兰兰 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 研究员：林贞磊 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3055047 研究员：王海峰 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1：行情回顾 | | --- | | | 前结身价 : | 开盘价 : | 最高价 | | 最低价 :收盘价 :涨跌:涨跌幅 | | | : 成交堂 : | | 持企業 持企重要化: | | ...

油脂日报 | 2025-12-23 出口需求强劲，棕榈油触底反弹 油脂观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2605合约8414.00元/吨，环比变化+122元，幅度+1.47%；昨日收盘豆油2605合约7772.00 元/吨，环比变化+60.00元，幅度+0.78%；昨日收盘菜油2605合约8864.00元/吨，环比变化+120.00元，幅度+1.37%。 现货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价8280.00元/吨，环比变化+20.00元，幅度+0.24%，现货基差P05-134.00，环比变 化-102.00元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8160.00元/吨，环比变化+50.00元/吨，幅度+0.62%，现货基差Y05+388.00， 环比变化-10.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9330.00元/吨，环比变化+110.00元，幅度+1.19%，现货基差 OI05+466.00，环比变化-10.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：海关统计数据在线查询平台公布的数据显示，中国2025年11月大豆进口量为8,107,364.76吨， 环比下降14.50%，同比上升13.32%。巴西是第一大进口来源地，当月从巴西进口大豆5, ...

2025 年 12 月 18 日 棕榈油：短期或有反弹，震荡寻底 豆油：美豆偏弱运行，豆油企稳乏力 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价 (日盘） 8,342 | 涨跌幅 -0.81% | 收盘价 （夜盘） 8,398 | 涨跌幅 0.67% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 豆油主力 | 元/吨 | 7,822 | -0.64% | 7,832 | 0.13% | | | 菜油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,950 | -1.25% | 8,985 | 0.39% | | 期 货 | 马棕主力 | 林吉特/吨 | 3,965 | 0.20% | 3,999 | 0.83% | | | CBOT豆油主力 | 美分/磅 | 49.12 | 0.43% | | | | | | 单 位 | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | 棕榈油主力 | 手 | 505,496 | 135430 | 437,681 | 21,344 | | | 豆油主力 | 手 | 251,763 | ...

研究所 农产品研发报告 油脂日报 第一部分 数据分析 | | | | | | 银河期货油脂日报 | | | | | | 2025/12/17 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 油脂现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | | | 品种 | 2605收盘价 | 涨跌 | | 各品种地区现货价 | | | | | 现货基差（分别为：一豆、24度、三菜） | | | | | 豆油 | 7822 | (50) | 张家港 | 广东 | 天津 | | 广东 | | | 涨跌幅 张家港 涨跌幅 天津 涨跌幅 | | | | 8332 | | | | 8382 | 8242 | | 560 | 10 | 510 | 0 | 420 | 0 | | 棕榈油 | 8342 | (68) | 广东 | 张家港 | 天津 | | 广州 | | | 涨跌幅 张家港 涨跌幅 天津 涨跌幅 | | | | 8312 | | | | 8432 | 8452 | | -30 | -1 ...

油脂日报 | 2025-12-16 大豆利空不断，油脂承压震荡 油脂观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2605合约8492.00元/吨，环比变化-60元，幅度-0.70%；昨日收盘豆油2605合约7940.00 元/吨，环比变化-54.00元，幅度-0.68%；昨日收盘菜油2605合约9196.00元/吨，环比变化-151.00元，幅度-1.62%。 现货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价8530.00元/吨，环比变化-20.00元，幅度-0.23%，现货基差P05+38.00，环比变化 +40.00元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8350.00元/吨，环比变化-60.00元/吨，幅度-0.71%，现货基差Y05+410.00， 环比变化-6.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9680.00元/吨，环比变化-180.00元，幅度-1.83%，现货基差 OI05+484.00，环比变化-29.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：美国农业部（USDA）公布数据，民间出口商报告对中国出口销售13.6万吨大豆，于2025/2026 年度交货。美国大豆市场年度始于9月1日。据外媒报道，巴西农业咨询机构AgRural表示，截至上周四，巴 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Palm oil is waiting for the December production reduction in Malaysia to confirm the price bottom. Currently, the valuation is not low enough and there is no clear driving force. It is recommended to operate with a light position. The price may break upward if there is a smooth production reduction in the first quarter, and new imagination space for the new year will be created when the origin starts to destock and the production in the first and second quarters is lower than expected [2]. - Soybean oil and its spreads are temporarily range - bound. They are waiting for the overall stabilization of the oil and fat sector and the thematic resonance in the first quarter. The short - term pressure on US soybeans remains, and the driving force provided by the domestic spot market is limited at present [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Last Week's Views and Logic - Palm oil: After the release of the MPOB report, the price rebounded after the negative factors were exhausted. However, the trading of the high - yield margin was not fully digested, and the high inventory suppressed the rebound height. The palm oil 01 contract fell 0.65% last week [1]. - Soybean oil: The sales progress of US soybeans was slow. Without weather speculation in South America, the upward driving force was limited. It mainly followed the oil and fat sector in a range - bound manner without upward momentum. The soybean oil 01 contract fell 1.06% last week [1]. 3.2 This Week's Views and Logic Palm oil - High production and low demand pushed Malaysia's December palm oil inventory to 2.8 million tons, approaching the 2018 high. The rebound after the report was weak, and the market was reluctant to bet on the production inflection point. More monthly production data are needed to verify the reasons for the high - yield. If the production in December decreases to around 1.7 million tons, the bottom of palm oil can be short - term confirmed [2]. - In Indonesia, the price difference between Indonesia and Malaysia and the price of fruit bunches in North Sumatra have declined, and the refining profit has rebounded rapidly. Indonesia still has room for marginal price cuts, and Malaysia's production will be the key factor for price support. The September data released by GAPKI is of little trading value due to possible distortion, but the export data from October to November indicates that the average monthly production in these two months is at least 4.8 million tons, and the year - end inventory can be maintained above 3 million tons, with a potential increase of about 1 million tons in 2026 [2]. - In the consumer areas, India's CPO import profit is still good, which stimulates India's purchasing, showing certain marginal demand. However, China's import profit inversion has widened, and the pressure release at the origin is very slow. Overall, palm oil is waiting for the December production reduction in Malaysia to confirm the price bottom, and it will mainly operate in a range without breakthrough momentum under fundamental trading [2]. Soybean oil - The inventory of US soybeans is slightly loose under the condition of good yield per unit. The new - crop CBOT soybean price needs a further reduction in yield per unit or China's unexpected over - purchase to rise. The uneven rainfall in central and western Brazil since October may limit the high - yield potential in some areas, but it is not enough to weaken the production prospect of the new season in South America. Argentina also has no speculative factors for the time being. The short - term pressure on US soybeans remains, and China's purchasing rhythm and South American weather will determine the degree of correction [4]. - In the domestic market, there is almost no gap in soybean arrivals until January, but the estimated arrivals from February to March are lower than the same period last year. The export demand enables domestic soybean oil to maintain the monthly destocking process until March or April next year, but the driving force provided by the domestic spot market is also very limited at present. Soybean oil and its spreads are temporarily range - bound, waiting for the overall stabilization of the oil and fat sector and the thematic resonance in the first quarter [4]. 3.3盘面基本行情数据 (Basic Market Data of Futures) - **Price and Volume Data**: The palm oil main - continuous contract opened at 8,780 yuan/ton, closed at 8,552 yuan/ton, down 1.99%; the soybean oil main - continuous contract opened at 8,282 yuan/ton, closed at 7,994 yuan/ton, down 3.27%; the rapeseed oil main - continuous contract opened at 9,625 yuan/ton, closed at 9,347 yuan/ton, down 3.10%. The trading volume and open interest of each contract also changed to varying degrees [6]. - **Spread Data**: The rapeseed - soybean 01 spread was 1,368 yuan/ton, up 1.18%; the soybean - palm 01 spread was - 368 yuan/ton, up 26.98%; the spreads of 1 - 5 contracts of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil all increased to different extents [6]. - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: The number of palm oil warehouse receipts increased by 498 to 950; the number of soybean oil warehouse receipts increased by 3,195 to 25,964; the number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts decreased by 316 to 3,476 [6]. 3.4油脂基本面核心数据 (Core Fundamental Data of Oils and Fats) - **Palm Oil Data**: Malaysia's palm oil production reduction in the fourth quarter is slow, and the inventory at the end of the year is still high. Indonesia's year - end inventory is expected to return to a neutral and slightly loose level. The export of Malaysian palm oil from December 1 - 10 was 390,400 tons, a 15% decrease compared with the same period last month. The POGO spread rebounded [8][12]. - **Demand - related Data**: India's palm oil import profit has improved rapidly, and the CNF spread between soybean oil and palm oil in India has strengthened. The EU's cumulative imports of palm oil and four major oils and fats in 2025 have decreased by 400,000 tons and 600,000 tons respectively [13][14]. - **Basis Data**: The basis of palm oil (South China) for the 01 contract is - 30, and the basis of soybean oil (Jiangsu) has increased [13].

油脂日报 | 2025-12-12 政策不确定性增加，油脂宽幅震荡 油脂观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2605合约8642.00元/吨，环比变化+100元，幅度+1.17%；昨日收盘豆油2605合约8036.00 元/吨，环比变化+36.00元，幅度+0.45%；昨日收盘菜油2605合约9599.00元/吨，环比变化+156.00元，幅度+1.65%。 现货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价8670.00元/吨，环比变化-10.00元，幅度-0.12%，现货基差P05+28.00，环比变化 -110.00元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8420.00元/吨，环比变化+10.00元/吨，幅度+0.12%，现货基差Y05+384.00， 环比变化-26.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9850.00元/吨，环比变化+160.00元，幅度+1.65%，现货基差 OI05+251.00，环比变化+4.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：加拿大菜籽(1月船期)C&F价格515美元/吨，与上个交易日相比下调1美元/吨；加拿大菜籽(3月 船期)C&F价格523美元/吨，与上个交易日相比下调2美元/吨。阿根廷豆油(1月船期)C&F价格 ...

MPOB报告发布，棕榈油累库承压 油脂观点 市场分析 油脂日报 | 2025-12-11 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2605合约8542.00元/吨，环比变化-106元，幅度-1.23%；昨日收盘豆油2605合约8000.00 元/吨，环比变化+16.00元，幅度+0.20%；昨日收盘菜油2605合约9443.00元/吨，环比变化+50.00元，幅度+0.53%。 现货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价8680.00元/吨，环比变化+100.00元，幅度+1.17%，现货基差P05+138.00，环比 变化+206.00元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8410.00元/吨，环比变化+60.00元/吨，幅度+0.72%，现货基差 Y05+410.00，环比变化+44.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9690.00元/吨，环比变化+50.00元，幅度+0.52%，现 货基差OI05+247.00，环比变化+0.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：加拿大菜籽(1月船期)C&F价格516美元/吨，与上个交易日相比上调4美元/吨；加拿大菜籽(3月 船期)C&F价格525美元/吨，与上个交易日相比上调4美元/吨。阿根廷豆油(1月船期)C&F价 ...

究 棕榈油：利空出尽，短期反弹 2025 年 12 月 11 日 豆油：美豆驱动不足，豆油震荡为主 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 棕榈油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,542 | -1.23% | 8,662 | 1.40% | | | 豆油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,222 | 0.39% | 8,026 | -2.38% | | | 菜油主力 | 元/吨 | 9,443 | 0.53% | 9,554 | 1.18% | | 期 货 | 马棕主力 | 林吉特/吨 | 4,161 | -1.05% | 4,094 | 0.76% | | | CBOT豆油主力 | 美分/磅 | 51.61 | 0.16% | | | | | | 单 位 | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | 棕榈油主力 | 手 | 401,671 | 97760 | 165,371 | -30,173 | | | 豆油主力 ...

每经AI快讯，12月10日，油脂期货拉升，菜籽油涨超2%，棕榈油涨1.2%。 每经AI快讯，12月10日，油脂期货拉升，菜籽油涨超2%，棕榈油涨1.2%。 ...