1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term oils and fats are fluctuating and rising, with increased volatility and many uncertainties, and the contradictions are not prominent. It is recommended that those without positions temporarily wait and not chase the high, and not rush to short. For rapeseed oil, a long - short spread strategy for the 3 - 5 contracts is recommended, and for options, it is recommended to wait and see [9][10][11] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data Analysis - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The closing prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil on the 2605 contract are 8258, 9238, and 9326 respectively. The basis of each variety in different regions is given, with some showing no change in the basis. For example, the basis of soybean oil in Zhangjiagang is 540 with no change [2] - **Monthly Spread**: The 5 - 9 monthly spreads of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are 86, 74, and 61 respectively, with changes of - 2, 32, and - 29 [2] - **Cross - Variety Spread**: For the 05 contract, the Y - P spread is - 980 with a change of - 114, the OI - Y spread is 1068 with a change of - 51, and the OI - P spread is 88 with a change of - 165. The oil - meal ratio is 2.99 with a change of 0.01 [2] - **Import Profit**: The import profit of 24 - degree palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia is - 130, and that of crude rapeseed oil from Rotterdam is - 976 [2] - **Weekly Commercial Inventory**: In the 4th week of 2026, the commercial inventories of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are 95.6, 74.2, and 25.2 million tons respectively, showing different trends compared with last week and the same period last year [2] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: From January 1 - 25, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil exports are expected to be 746,745 tons, a 9.41% decrease compared with the same period last month [4] - **Domestic Market - Palm Oil**: The market has a strong bullish sentiment. The palm oil futures price fluctuated and closed up, rising more than 1%. As of January 23, 2026, the commercial inventory of palm oil is 74.23 million tons, a 0.51% decrease from last week. The import profit is inverted, and the basis is stable and weak. It is expected that the de - stocking speed will be slow in the later stage [4] - **Domestic Market - Soybean Oil**: The soybean oil futures price fluctuated and closed slightly up. Last week, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.1021 million tons, and the operating rate was 57.83%. As of January 23, 2026, the commercial inventory of soybean oil is 95.6 million tons, a 0.76% decrease from last week. The basis is stable. The inventory is expected to slightly decrease, but the supply is sufficient [5][7] - **Domestic Market - Rapeseed Oil**: The rapeseed oil futures price fluctuated and closed slightly down. Last week, the rapeseed crushing volume of major coastal oil mills was 0 tons, and the operating rate was 0%. As of January 23, 2026, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 25.2 million tons, a decrease of 2.3 million tons. The import profit is inverted, and the basis is supported. It is expected that the rapeseed oil will continue to de - stock, and the decline space of the near - month contract is limited [7] 3.3 Trading Strategy - **Unilateral Strategy**: Short - term oils and fats are fluctuating and rising, with many uncertainties. Those without positions are recommended to wait and not chase the high, and not rush to short [9] - **Arbitrage Strategy**: A long - short spread strategy for the 3 - 5 contracts of rapeseed oil is recommended [10] - **Option Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see [11] 3.4 Related Attachments - The report provides 8 figures, including the spot basis of different oils and fats, monthly spreads, and cross - variety spreads from 2017 - 2026, with data sources from Galaxy Futures, Bangcheng, and WIND [14][15][19]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Palm oil is affected by multiple factors and is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term [1] - The rebound of soybean oil is limited due to insufficient themes of US soybeans [1] - The Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC) expects the price of crude palm oil to fluctuate between 4,000 - 4,300 ringgit per ton ($986.32 - $1,060.29) in February [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: Palm oil's day - session closing price was 8,832 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.96%, and night - session closing price was 8,918 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.97%. Soybean oil's day - session closing price was 8,044 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.15%, and night - session closing price was 8,092 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.60%. Rapeseed oil's day - session closing price was 8,947 yuan/ton with a decrease of 0.01%, and night - session closing price was 8,957 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.11%. Malaysian palm oil's closing price was 4,154 ringgit/ton with an increase of 1.44%, and night - session closing price was 4,200 ringgit/ton with an increase of 1.11%. CBOT soybean oil's closing price was 54.05 cents/pound with an increase of 2.83% [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of palm oil futures was 487,113 lots, with an increase of 64,618 lots; open interest was 445,943 lots, with an increase of 16,765 lots. The trading volume of soybean oil futures was 228,261 lots, with an increase of 610 lots; open interest was 727,245 lots, with an increase of 4,626 lots. The trading volume of rapeseed oil futures was 202,702 lots, with a decrease of 614 lots; open interest was 251,313 lots, with a decrease of 1,814 lots [1] - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,850 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton. The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong was 8,630 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton. The spot price of fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 9,880 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton. The FOB price of Malaysian palm oil was $1,040/ton, an increase of $5/ton [1] - **Basis**: The basis of palm oil in Guangdong was 18 yuan/ton; that of soybean oil in Guangdong was 586 yuan/ton; that of rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 933 yuan/ton [1] - **Price Spreads**: The spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil futures was 115 yuan/ton (previous trading day: 200 yuan/ton). The spread between soybean oil and palm oil futures was - 788 yuan/ton (previous trading day: - 716 yuan/ton). The 5 - 9 spread of palm oil was 38 yuan/ton (previous trading day: 32 yuan/ton). The 5 - 9 spread of soybean oil was 96 yuan/ton (previous trading day: 124 yuan/ton). The 5 - 9 spread of rapeseed oil was 9 yuan/ton (previous trading day: - 27 yuan/ton) [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - The Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC) expects the price of crude palm oil in February to be affected by seasonal supply limitations and fundamental changes, and will fluctuate between 4,000 - 4,300 ringgit per ton ($986.32 - $1,060.29) [2] - From January 1 - 20, 2026, the yield per unit of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 16.49% compared with the same period last month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.08%, and the output decreased by 16.06% [4] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of palm oil is 1, and that of soybean oil is 1 [5]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Galaxy Futures' Agricultural Products R & D Report - Oil Daily [1] - Report Date: January 20, 2026 [1] Group 2: Data Analysis Spot Prices and Basis - **Soybean Oil**: The 2605 closing price was 8032, up 36. Spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 8552, 8602, and 8422 respectively. The spot basis in Guangdong, Zhangjiagang, and Tianjin were 570, 520, and 390 respectively, with no change [2]. - **Palm Oil**: The 2605 closing price was 8748, up 100. Spot prices in Guangdong, Zhangjiagang, and Tianjin were 8718, 8738, and 8878 respectively. The spot basis in Guangzhou, Zhangjiagang, and Tianjin were -30, -10, and 130 respectively, with the latter two up 10 [2]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The 2605 closing price was 8948, up 46. Spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangxi, and Guangdong were 9778, 9548. The spot basis in Zhangjiagang and Guangxi were 830 and 600 respectively, with no change [2]. Monthly Spread - **Soybean Oil (5 - 9)**: The closing price was 124, up 4 [2]. - **Palm Oil (5 - 9)**: The closing price was 32, up 6 [2]. - **Rapeseed Oil (5 - 9)**: The closing price was -27, down 6 [2]. Cross - Variety Spread - **Y - P (05 contract)**: The spread was -716, down 64 [2]. - **OI - Y (05 contract)**: The spread was 916, up 10 [2]. - **OI - P (05 contract)**: The spread was 200, down 54 [2]. - **Oil - Meal Ratio**: The ratio was 2.94, up 0.004 [2]. Import Profit - **24 - degree Palm Oil**: The盘面 profit for Malaysia & Indonesia was -163, with a CNF price of 1068 for the 2 - month ship period [2]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The盘面 profit for Rotterdam was -1338, with an FOB price of 1030 for the 2 - month ship period [2]. Weekly Commercial Inventory (Week 3, 2026, in 10,000 tons) - **Soybean Oil**: This week's inventory was 74.6, last week was 96.3, and last year's same - period was 102.5 [2]. - **Palm Oil**: This week's inventory was 73.6, last week was 46.9 [2]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: This week's inventory was 27.5, last week was 25.1, and last year's same - period was 55.2 [2]. Group 3: Fundamental Analysis International Market - Indonesia postponed the B50 policy, facing challenges such as stabilizing the biodiesel fund, narrowing the cost gap between biodiesel and traditional diesel, and solving logistics, infrastructure, and operational preparation issues [4]. - Malaysia is in a more favorable position in crude palm oil exports due to lower export tariffs, while Indonesia's high export tax increases export costs and may limit price competitiveness [4]. Domestic Market (P/Y/OI) - **Palm Oil**: The futures price closed up more than 1% today. As of January 16, 2026, the commercial inventory was 74.61 million tons, up 1.01 million tons from last week, a 1.37% increase. The import profit inversion has narrowed to around -200. The basis was stable. Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to wait and see [6]. - **Soybean Oil**: The futures price closed slightly up. Last week, the actual soybean crushing volume was 199.42 million tons, and the operating rate was 54.86%. As of January 16, 2026, the commercial inventory was 96.33 million tons, down 6.18 million tons from last week, a 6.03% decrease. The basis was stable. Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate at the bottom [6]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The futures price closed slightly up. Last week, the rapeseed crushing volume in coastal areas was 0, and the operating rate was 0%. As of January 16, 2026, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 27.5 million tons, up 2.4 million tons. The import profit inversion has widened to around -1300. The short - term price of the near - month contract may have limited downside [7]. Group 4: Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: Short - term oil prices are fluctuating, with many uncertainties and no prominent contradictions. It is recommended to wait and see [9]. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [10]. - **Options**: Wait and see [11]. Group 5: Related Attachments - The report includes 8 figures showing the spot basis, monthly spread, cross - variety spread of different oils from 2017 - 2026 [13][16][19][23]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The relationship between China and Canada has eased, leading to increased volatility in the cooking oil market [1] - The prices of the three major cooking oils fluctuated yesterday. The futures and spot prices of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil all showed varying degrees of decline [1] - The new China - Canada economic and trade agreement has increased the hope of improving market access after months of interruption, but key details still need to be clarified [2] - Currently, the inventory of Canadian rapeseed in China has been cleared, and Australian rapeseed has not started to be pressed. The production of rapeseed oil in China has stagnated. The spot rapeseed oil is continuously de - stocking, and the market circulation of spot goods is scarce. The basis is high and continues to rise. The rapeseed futures may experience a correction due to trade relations, but the basis is expected to remain high before the spot shortage is alleviated [3] Group 3: Summary of Related Data Futures Prices - The closing price of the palm oil 2605 contract yesterday was 8,648.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 26 yuan or 0.30% compared to the previous day [1] - The closing price of the soybean oil 2605 contract yesterday was 7,996.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20.00 yuan or 0.25% compared to the previous day [1] - The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2605 contract yesterday was 8,902.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 161.00 yuan or 1.78% compared to the previous day [1] Spot Prices - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 8,620.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30.00 yuan or 0.35% compared to the previous day, and the spot basis was P05 + - 28.00, a decrease of 4.00 yuan compared to the previous day [1] - The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8,380.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10.00 yuan/ton or 0.12% compared to the previous day, and the spot basis was Y05 + 384.00, an increase of 10.00 yuan compared to the previous day [1] - The spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,750.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 160.00 yuan or 1.61% compared to the previous day, and the spot basis was OI05 + 848.00, an increase of 1.00 yuan compared to the previous day [1] International Market Prices - Argentina's C&F price of soybean oil (February shipment) was 1,209 US dollars/ton, an increase of 9 US dollars/ton compared to the previous trading day; Argentina's C&F price of soybean oil (April shipment) was 1,139 US dollars/ton, an increase of 31 US dollars/ton compared to the previous trading day [2] - The C&F quotation of imported rapeseed oil: Canadian rapeseed oil (February shipment) was 1,030 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 20 US dollars/ton compared to the previous trading day; Canadian rapeseed oil (April shipment) was 1,010 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 20 US dollars/ton compared to the previous trading day [2] - The C&F price of US Gulf soybeans (February shipment) was 474 US dollars/ton, an increase of 1 US dollar/ton compared to the previous trading day; the C&F price of US West soybeans (February shipment) was 468 US dollars/ton, an increase of 1 US dollar/ton compared to the previous trading day; the C&F price of Brazilian soybeans (February shipment) was 447 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1 US dollar/ton compared to the previous trading day [2] - The import soybean premium quotation: the Gulf of Mexico (February shipment) was 235 cents/bushel, unchanged compared to the previous trading day; the US West Coast (February shipment) was 220 cents/bushel, unchanged compared to the previous trading day; Brazilian ports (February shipment) was 161 cents/bushel, a decrease of 7 cents/bushel compared to the previous trading day [2]

Group 1: Report General Information - Report title: Galaxy Futures' Agricultural Products R & D Report - Fats and Oils Daily Report [1][5][12][17] - Report date: January 19, 2026 [1][2] Group 2: Data Analysis Spot Prices and Basis - **Soybean oil**: The 2605 closing price was 7996, down 20. Spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 8516, 8566, and 8386 respectively. The basis in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 570, 520, and 390 respectively, with no change [2]. - **Palm oil**: The 2605 closing price was 8648, down 26. Spot prices in Guangdong, Zhangjiagang, and Tianjin were 8618, 8628, and 8768 respectively. The basis in Guangzhou, Zhangjiagang, and Tianjin were -30, -20, and 120 respectively, with no change [2]. - **Rapeseed oil**: The 2605 closing price was 8902, down 161. Spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangxi, and Guangdong were 9552, 9502. The basis in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Guangxi were 650, and 600 respectively, with no change [2]. Monthly Spread Closing Prices - **Soybean oil 5 - 9 spread**: 120, down 10 [2]. - **Palm oil 5 - 9 spread**: 26, up 14 [2]. - **Rapeseed oil 5 - 9 spread**: -21, down 74 [2]. Cross - Variety Spreads - **Y - P 05 contract**: -652, up 6 [2]. - **OI - Y 05 contract**: 906, no change in the reported movement [2]. - **OI - P 05 contract**: 254, down 135 [2]. - **Oil - meal ratio**: 2.93, down 0.01 [2]. Import Profits - **24 - degree palm oil**: The盘面 profit for Malaysia & Indonesia was -177, with a CNF price of 1057 for the 2 - month ship - period [2]. - **Rapeseed oil**: The盘面 profit for Rotterdam was -1133, with an FOB price of 1025 for the 2 - month ship - period [2]. Weekly Commercial Inventory (in 10,000 tons) - **Soybean oil**: 72.7 this week, 102.5 last week, 108.1 last year [2]. - **Palm oil**: 73.6 this week, 48.2 last year [2]. - **Rapeseed oil**: 25.1 this week, 27.3 last week, 50.6 last year [2]. Group 3: Fundamental Analysis International Market - The new China - Canada economic and trade agreement is a positive development for Canadian canola growers, but key details need to be clarified. There is hope for improved market access after months of interruption. Ross Burtnak welcomes the potential reduction of canola seed tariffs and the cancellation of rapeseed meal tariffs, but is unsure about canola oil and needs further information [4]. Domestic Market - **Palm oil**: As of January 16, 2026 (week 3), the national key - area commercial inventory was 74.61 tons, up 1.01 tons (1.37%) from last week. It is at a slightly above - average level in the same period historically. The origin's quotes are stable, the import profit inversion has narrowed to around - 200. There was a reported purchase of 1 ship of palm oil. The basis is stable. In the short - term, it lacks a clear driver, with slow de - stocking expected under high inventory, and the high inventory will persist. The short - term market is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to wait and see [4][6]. - **Soybean oil**: Last week, the actual soybean crushing volume was 199.42 tons, with an operating rate of 54.86%, an increase from the previous week. As of January 16, 2026, the national key - area commercial inventory was 96.33 tons, down 6.18 tons (6.03%) from last week. It is at a relatively high level in the same period historically. The basis is stable. Downstream demand has no bright spots. As soybean arrivals decrease and soybean crushing declines, the inventory may slightly decrease, but overall supply is sufficient. In the short - term, it lacks a clear driver and is expected to fluctuate at the bottom [6]. - **Rapeseed oil**: Due to the improvement in China - Canada relations, rapeseed from Canada is expected to enter the domestic market, and the rapeseed oil futures price fell by more than 1% today. Last week, the rapeseed crushing volume of major coastal oil mills was 0 tons, with an operating rate of 0%, and the rapeseed inventory was exhausted. As of January 9, 2026, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 25.1 tons, down 2.2 tons from last week, at a neutral level in the same period historically, and the inventory is continuously decreasing. The European rapeseed oil FOB quote is stable at around $1030, and the import profit inversion has widened to around - 1100. The domestic available rapeseed oil supply is tight, and traders are still holding prices. The expected increase in domestic rapeseed supply may cause the rapeseed oil market to fluctuate weakly. However, considering the time needed for rapeseed purchases to arrive after March and the expected release of the US biodiesel final plan in March, which is positive for soybean oil and rapeseed oil, the decline of near - month rapeseed oil contracts may be limited [7]. Group 4: Trading Strategies - **Unilateral trading**: In the short - term, the fats and oils market fluctuates with increased volatility, but there are many uncertain factors and no prominent contradictions. It is recommended to wait and see [9]. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [10]. - **Options**: Wait and see [11]. Group 5: Related Attachments - The report includes 8 figures showing the spot basis of different oils, monthly spreads, and cross - variety spreads from 2017 - 2026, with data sources from Galaxy Futures, Bangcheng, and WIND [14][15][18][22]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [3] 2. Core View of the Report - Before the release of the USDA report, the prices of the three major oils fluctuated. Currently, domestic oil stocks are continuously decreasing, and the basis of soybean oil remains strong, providing some support for prices. Overall, the futures prices showed little fluctuation [1][2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The closing price of the palm oil 2605 contract was 8,724 yuan/ton, a change of +42 yuan or +0.48% compared to the previous day; the closing price of the soybean oil 2605 contract was 7,994 yuan/ton, with no change; the closing price of the rapeseed oil 2605 contract was 8,980 yuan/ton, a change of -62 yuan or -0.69% [1] - Spot: In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 8,600 yuan/ton, a change of -50 yuan or -0.58%, and the spot basis was P05 - 124 yuan, a change of -92 yuan; in the Tianjin region, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8,360 yuan/ton, a change of -30 yuan or -0.36%, and the spot basis was Y05 + 366 yuan, a change of -30 yuan; in the Jiangsu region, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 9,730 yuan/ton, a change of -60 yuan or -0.61%, and the spot basis was OI05 + 750 yuan, a change of +2 yuan [1] 3.2 Market Information Summary - Palm oil exports from Malaysia from January 1 - 10: According to SGS, the export volume was 325,955 tons, a 16.4% increase compared to the same period last month; according to AmSpec, the export volume was 466,457 tons, a 17.65% increase [2] - Global oilseed production in the 2025/2026 season is expected to be 690 million tons, an increase of about 0.84%. Soybean production is expected to decrease by 4.61 million tons, with a slowdown in the increase in South American production; rapeseed production is expected to reach 95.27 million tons, an increase of 10.78% [2] - As of January 6, 2026, 4.57 million tons of imported soybeans for January shipments in China have been purchased, with a purchase progress of 100%; 8.33 million tons and 10.08 million tons have been purchased for February and March shipments respectively [2] - From January 1 - 10, 2026, the yield per unit area of palm oil in Malaysia decreased by 20.49% compared to the same period last month, the oil extraction rate remained the same, and the production decreased by 20.49% [2]

二 〇 二 六 年 度 2026 年 01 月 11 日 棕榈油：关注 MPOB 报告利空落地情况 豆油：美豆动能有限，关注国内现货发酵 李隽钰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021380 lijunyu@gtht.com 报告导读： 上周观点及逻辑： 棕榈油：随着马来逐步兑现减产预期，高频出口数据良好，12 月大概率创下库存高点，对棕榈油形成 短期支撑，同时商品走势偏强，05 合约周涨 0.81%，但打到区间上沿后进一步突破力度不足，仍以震荡为 主。 期货研究 豆油：缺乏南美天气炒作，美豆上方驱动有限，跟随油脂板块区间震荡为主，豆油 05 合约周涨 1.63%。 本周观点及逻辑： 棕榈油：马来 12 月库存有累至 300 万吨以上的预期，压制油脂板块的反弹动力，下周一 MPOB 报告超 预期利空的可能性不大，报告发布后二次探底后短期利空出尽反应的概率较大，新的趋势性利空需要看到 1 月产量仍在 160 万吨以上水位运行，因此盘面逐步重回逢低做多的减产季常态化交易选择。虽然目前保 守认为仍然需要更多月份的产量数据以验证市场现在关于棕榈高产的种种猜测，究竟是园区管理及劳工增 加带来的常态化产量抬升还是树龄及降雨导致的 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] Core Viewpoints - The prices of the three major oils fluctuated yesterday. The palm oil data in Southeast Asia has been gradually released, showing that the palm oil production in Southeast Asia in 2025 remained at a relatively high level, which met market expectations, and the market fluctuated [3] Market Analysis Futures - The closing price of the palm oil 2605 contract yesterday was 8,562 yuan/ton, a change of +62 yuan or +0.73% [1] - The closing price of the soybean oil 2605 contract yesterday was 7,958 yuan/ton, a change of +46 yuan or +0.58% [1] - The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2605 contract yesterday was 9,095 yuan/ton, a change of -35 yuan or -0.38% [1] Spot - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 8,500 yuan/ton, with no change, and the spot basis was P05 - 62 yuan, a change of -62 yuan [1] - The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8,330 yuan/ton, a change of +20 yuan or +0.24%, and the spot basis was Y05 + 372 yuan, a change of -26 yuan [1] - The spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,850 yuan/ton, a change of -30 yuan or -0.30%, and the spot basis was OI05 + 755 yuan, a change of +5 yuan [1] Market News Palm Oil Production Forecast - Malaysia's palm oil production in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 19.6 million tons, 2.1% higher than the previous forecast, with a forecast range of 19.1 - 20.1 million tons. The annual palm oil production in 2025 is expected to exceed 20 million tons for the first time [2] - Thailand's palm oil production in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 3.82 million tons, with a forecast range of 3.32 - 4.32 million tons. The production in November dropped to 267,000 tons, a 15.1% decline from the previous month, and the cumulative production from January to November was 3.62 million tons, a 15.3% increase year - on - year [2] - Indonesia's palm oil production in the 2025/26 season is expected to remain at 51.2 million tons, the same as the previous update [2] Market Conditions - As of the mid - day break, the March palm oil futures on the Malaysia Derivatives Exchange (BMD) rose 0.4% to 4,004 ringgit/ton, and once rose 0.9% to 4,024 ringgit/ton during the session. CBOT March soybean oil rose 0.2% to 49.51 cents/pound. The palm oil 2605 contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange rose 0.2% to 8,518 yuan/ton, and the May soybean oil rose 0.4% to 7,942 yuan/ton [2] - The export volume of Malaysian palm oil from January 1 - 5 increased by 31% month - on - month. The December inventory may have climbed for the 10th consecutive month, reaching a 7 - year high of 2.99 million tons [2] Outlook - Despite the surge in exports at the beginning of January and the expected significant decline in production, with the inventory approaching 3 million tons and weak demand, palm oil is difficult to recover significantly. The expected strengthening of the ringgit in the middle of the year and the bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans are negative factors for palm oil demand [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Palm oil: Wait for the negative factors to be fully priced in and pay attention to the impact of macro - sentiment [1] - Soybean oil: The unilateral price will mainly rebound within a range, and pay attention to the spread opportunities between different contract months [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: Palm oil主力 closed at 8,562 yuan/ton (up 0.73% during the day) and 8,594 yuan/ton (up 0.37% at night); Soybean oil主力 closed at 7,958 yuan/ton (up 0.58% during the day) and 7,974 yuan/ton (up 0.20% at night); Rapeseed oil主力 closed at 9,095 yuan/ton (down 0.38% during the day) and 9,028 yuan/ton (down 0.74% at night); Malaysian palm主力 closed at 4,035 ringgit/ton (up 1.08% during the day) and 4,050 ringgit/ton (up 0.42% at night); CBOT soybean oil主力 closed at 49.27 cents/pound (down 0.26%) [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Palm oil主力 had a trading volume of 453,932 lots (an increase of 39,340) and an open interest of 393,568 lots (an increase of 2,512); Soybean oil主力 had a trading volume of 297,201 lots (an increase of 34,187) and an open interest of 643,998 lots (an increase of 22,151); Rapeseed oil主力 had a trading volume of 289,824 lots (an increase of 72,757) and an open interest of 228,469 lots (an increase of 8,124) [1] - **Spot Prices**: Palm oil (24 - degree) in Guangdong was 8,570 yuan/ton (with no price change); First - grade soybean oil in Guangdong was 8,470 yuan/ton (with no price change); Fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 10,050 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan/ton); Malaysian palm oil FOB was 1,015 US dollars/ton (with no price change) [1] - **Basis**: The basis of palm oil in Guangdong was 8 yuan/ton; The basis of soybean oil in Guangdong was 512 yuan/ton; The basis of rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 955 yuan/ton [1] - **Price Spreads**: The spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil futures was 533 yuan/ton; The spread between soybean oil and palm oil futures was - 604 yuan/ton; The 5 - 9 spread of palm oil was 110 yuan/ton; The 5 - 9 spread of soybean oil was 150 yuan/ton; The 5 - 9 spread of rapeseed oil was 14 yuan/ton [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Indonesia may confiscate 4 - 5 million hectares of oil palm plantations this year [2] - Malaysia's palm oil production in December 2024 was estimated to decrease by 4.64% to 1.84 million tons, with a 7.59% decrease in the Malay Peninsula, 0.6% in Sabah, and 2.41% in Sarawak [3][4] - Malaysia's palm oil production in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 19.6 million tons, 2.1% higher than the previous estimate, with a range of 19.1 - 20.1 million tons [4] - As of December 31, 2025, the total vegetable oil inventory in major ports in India was 914,310 tons, a decrease of 37,363 tons (3.93%) from December 15; The CPO inventory was 435,412 tons, a decrease of 47,606 tons (9.86%) from the previous period [4] - Thailand's palm oil production in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 3.82 million tons, with a stable yield increase, and the estimated range is 3.32 - 4.32 million tons. In November, the production dropped to 267,000 tons, a 15.1% decrease from the previous month, and the cumulative production from January to November was 3.62 million tons, a 15.3% year - on - year increase [4] - Indonesia's palm oil production in the 2025/26 season is expected to remain at 51.2 million tons. Bad weather continues to affect field operations, and the EU weather model predicts complex weather conditions in the next 15 days [5] - The market expects the US soybean production report to maintain the production estimate of 4.253 billion bushels and the yield of 53.0 bushels/acre, and the global soybean production may decrease by 1.1% year - on - year [5] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of palm oil is 0, and that of soybean oil is 0 [6]

油脂日报 | 2026-01-06 棕榈油产区库存预期累积，盘面承压震荡 油脂观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2605合约8488.00元/吨，环比变化-96元，幅度-1.12%；昨日收盘豆油2605合约7856.00 元/吨，环比变化-6.00元，幅度-0.08%；昨日收盘菜油2605合约9044.00元/吨，环比变化-43.00元，幅度-0.47%。现 货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价8490.00元/吨，环比变化-80.00元，幅度-0.93%，现货基差P05+2.00，环比变化+16.00 元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8270.00元/吨，环比变化+20.00元/吨，幅度+0.24%，现货基差Y05+414.00，环比变 化+26.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9780.00元/吨，环比变化-50.00元，幅度-0.51%，现货基差OI05+736.00， 环比变化-7.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：据路透与彭博最新调查显示，市场普遍预计马来西亚2025年12月棕榈油库存将继续累积，或 创近期新高，尽管产量受季节性因素影响出现大幅下滑。库存（Stocks）：路透预期297万吨（环比+4.7%），彭 ...