Summary of the Conference Call on the Duty-Free Industry Industry Overview - The duty-free market in Japan is influenced by Sino-Japanese relations, with a significant contribution from Chinese tourists, accounting for 23.7% of the total consumption in Japan, which is projected to reach approximately 30 billion RMB in 2024 [1][3] - The new duty-free policies in Hainan and the effects of customs closure have led to a 27% year-on-year increase in duty-free sales in November, with average transaction values rising by 41% [1][4] Key Insights - The growth in Hainan's duty-free market is expected to come from two main customer groups: departing tourists and local residents, alongside the attraction of high-end industries due to low tax policies [1][4] - The number of inbound tourists to Hainan reached 1.26 million by the end of November, a 31% increase year-on-year, supported by a visa-free policy for 86 countries, which is expected to continue attracting foreign visitors [1][5] - If 10% of Hainan's resident population of approximately 10.48 million converts to duty-free purchases, it could create a market potential of over 10 billion RMB [1][6] Competitive Landscape - The recent re-tendering of port channels has introduced a model of minimum rent plus sales commission, encouraging the introduction of popular products such as domestic goods, smartphones, and drones [1][7] - China Duty Free Group (CDFG) has established a joint venture at Shanghai Pudong Airport, which may slightly reduce its operating area and profits by approximately 100-200 million RMB [1][8] - Despite increased competition, CDFG maintains a competitive advantage by securing key segments at major airports [1][7] Future Expectations - The duty-free market is expected to grow further in 2026, driven by the visa-free policy and an expansion in product categories and duty-free store sizes [2][10] - The indoor store segment has seen the opening of 8 new stores, with existing stores undergoing upgrades, indicating a positive trend in the retail environment [2][10] - The online channel, which saw significant growth during the pandemic, is expected to focus more on driving traffic to physical stores rather than competing directly with e-commerce platforms [12] Long-term Industry Outlook - The duty-free market in Hainan is anticipated to continue its upward trajectory due to seasonal tourism peaks and favorable policies aimed at boosting consumption [13] - Major players like China Duty Free Group are expected to see sales growth of 20-30% and profit growth of 10-15% in the coming year, despite increased competition [14] - Wangfujing and Zhuhai Gongbei Port Group are also positioned to benefit from the evolving market dynamics, with a focus on expanding their duty-free operations [14]

三亚市商务局12月23日下午发布数据显示，海南封关之后，三亚免税已连续五天单日销售破亿元，市场 销售十分火爆。《证券日报》记者实地走访三亚多家免税店发现，各大门店客流络绎不绝，除传统的香 化、服饰品类门店大排长龙外，金饰品牌门店客流也摩肩接踵，收银台前始终围满等待结账的客户。 北京时间12月23日，金银价同步再创新高，截至记者发稿时，COMEX黄金报价4521.6美元/盎司，伦敦 金现报价4489.92美元/盎司；COMEX白银、伦敦银现价格双双逼近70美元/盎司。国内方面，SHFE黄金 突破1000元/克、SHFE白银冲至16636元/千克。 金饰方面，12月23日国内多家黄金品牌金饰基础金价突破1400元/克。高位金价让不少消费者望而却 步。但当日海南免税渠道金饰，免税后每克黄金基础价格较内地区域少175元至182元左右，有接近13% 的价差。 《证券日报》记者也从内地其他黄金珠宝品牌商方面了解到，在金价持续攀升背景下，免税与有税金饰 成本差距正在拉大，这也加大了海南地区离岛免税的吸引力，目前该公司也正在筹备进入免税渠道。 《证券日报》记者在现场了解到，海南封关之后当地免税店客流大增，叠加当地政府的消费券 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the significant launch of the Hainan Free Trade Port's full island closure operation, marking a new phase in its development [3][4] - The synergy between the closure operation and the new duty-free policies is expected to enhance market demand and supply, leading to cost savings for businesses [5] - The initial impact of the new policies is evident, with a notable increase in duty-free shopping amounts in Hainan [6] Policy and Market Dynamics - The implementation of the closure operation allows for duty-free imports of production equipment, potentially saving businesses around 20% in costs [5] - In November 2025, duty-free shopping in Hainan reached 2.38 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.1%, indicating strong market growth [6] - Sanya's sales figures for November also showed a significant increase, with sales reaching 1.63 billion yuan, up 24.3% year-on-year, marking a record monthly growth rate [6] Investment Opportunities - The tourism ETF (562510.SH) is presented as an ideal investment tool to capture the benefits of the new policies, offering transparency and diversification [8] - On the day of the closure operation, the tourism ETF saw a 2.4% increase, reflecting positive market sentiment [9] - The ETF tracks a comprehensive tourism theme index, including key players in the industry such as China Duty Free Group, which constitutes 16.6% of the fund's net value [10][13] Company Focus - China Duty Free Group is identified as a major beneficiary of the Hainan duty-free policies, with its performance closely tied to the development of the Hainan Free Trade Port [13][16] - The company's sales in Hainan showed a positive trend, with a 3.4% year-on-year increase in September 2025, indicating a recovery in the market [14][16] - Overall, China Duty Free Group is seen as a critical player in the Hainan duty-free industry, making it a focal point for investors looking to capitalize on the long-term prospects of the free trade port and duty-free consumption [17]

11月30日，"试翼湾区·职向未来——第二届粤港澳大湾区澳门大学生就业专场招聘会"在广州暨南大学 举行。招聘会吸引了内地和澳门近120家用人单位参与，涵盖金融、科技、互联网等多个领域，并首次 邀请澳门经济民生联盟、澳门归侨总会等澳门重要社团参加，提供1000余个高质量就业实习岗位，工作 地点分布在澳门、广州、珠海、深圳等大湾区城市。这也是像符仕这样的澳门学子格外看重这一场招聘 会的原因。 就读于广州暨南大学的大四学生符仕正与用人单位的负责人侃侃而谈，作为澳门人，毕业后在澳门或者 珠海上班，是他的理想状态。 海南离岛免税新政实施首月：消费热度攀升 ...

Core Insights - The new duty-free policy in Hainan has led to a significant increase in sales, with a total shopping amount of 2.38 billion RMB in the first month, representing a year-on-year growth of 27.1% [1] - The policy has expanded the range of duty-free products, allowing for the inclusion of domestic goods and new categories such as pet supplies and portable musical instruments [2] Sales Performance - The total amount of duty-free shopping reached 2.38 billion RMB, with 329,000 shoppers making purchases and a total of 1.905 million items sold [1] - New product categories contributed to sales, with 7,597 items sold amounting to 13 million RMB, while domestic products accounted for 126 items worth 391,000 RMB [1] Consumer Behavior - Among the shoppers, 4,100 items were purchased by departing travelers, totaling 9.063 million RMB, while local residents made 13,903 purchases amounting to 10.808 million RMB [1] - The new policy has made shopping more convenient for local residents, allowing them to purchase items like imported milk powder and diapers with ease [2] Market Impact - The implementation of the new policy has increased foot traffic in duty-free stores, with marketing strategies such as promotional activities being employed to boost sales [1] - The adjustments in the policy are expected to attract more domestic and international brands, further enhancing consumer shopping experiences [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for China Duty Free Group (601888) is "Buy" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the recovery of high-end consumption and the long-term growth potential of Hainan's offshore duty-free market, especially with the optimization of policies and the expansion of retail networks [2][3][4] - The sales of offshore duty-free products in Hainan have seen rapid growth, with a 28.52% year-on-year increase in sales amounting to 1.325 billion yuan from November 1 to November 17 [3] - High-end consumption is showing signs of recovery, supported by strong performance in the gaming sector and luxury brands in the Asia-Pacific region [4] - The Sanya International Duty-Free City Phase III is progressing as planned, with the first phase expected to be completed by August 2026, enhancing the commercial landscape in Hainan [5] - The report has adjusted the revenue forecasts for the company, expecting revenues of 55.468 billion, 61.242 billion, and 70.777 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 4.114 billion, 5.091 billion, and 6.150 billion yuan [6] Summary by Sections Event Overview - The company held an investor open day in Sanya, showcasing its retail network and business operations, indicating a positive outlook for profit growth due to high-end consumption recovery and policy optimization in Hainan [2] Analysis and Judgment - The report notes significant improvements in the offshore duty-free shopping policies, which have contributed to increased sales and consumer engagement [3] - High-end consumption is rebounding, with notable growth in luxury brand sales and positive trends in the gaming sector, indicating a favorable market environment [4] Investment Recommendations - The report has revised its earnings forecasts upward, reflecting the strong performance in Hainan's duty-free sales and the anticipated growth in high-end consumption [6]

中国中免（601888）(01880)早盘涨超4%，截至发稿，涨4.81%，报76.3港元，成交额1.48亿港元。 消息面上，海南自由贸易港将于今年12月18日正式启动全岛封关运作。中国中免表示，现行离岛免税的 45 大类商品均已被列入《海南自由贸易港进口征税商品目录》。因此，封关后一定时期内，海南离岛 免税的整个体系将仍按目前情况运行，而旅客和商旅出行人次则有望随自贸港建设而持续增长，免税行 业占比较高的消费者服务有望受益。 东方证券指出，海南离岛免税景气回升。11月1–7日海南离岛免税购物金额5.06亿元、购物人数7.29万人 次，同比分别+34.86%、+3.37%，该行判断是受益于低基数、离岛免税新政、演唱会等大型活动、叠加 渠道促销所致。此外，日本游被"劝退"有望推动部分境外购物需求回流、叠加今年以来股市财富效应抬 升，冬季海南游和海南的免税销售有望受益。 ...

Core Viewpoint - China Duty Free Group (中国中免) experienced a significant decline in stock price after releasing disappointing financial results for the third quarter, indicating potential challenges ahead for the company [1] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters, the company reported revenue of 39.862 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.34% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.052 billion yuan, down 22.13% year-on-year [1] - In the third quarter alone, revenue was 11.711 billion yuan, reflecting a slight decline of 0.38% year-on-year, while net profit was 0.452 billion yuan, a significant drop of 28.94% year-on-year [1] Market Reaction - Following the earnings announcement, the stock price fell over 5% in early trading, settling at 73.8 Hong Kong dollars, with a trading volume of 214 million Hong Kong dollars [1] Future Outlook - CICC noted that the disappointing performance was primarily due to foreign exchange losses and disturbances in minority shareholder rights [1] - The upcoming full island closure of Hainan Free Trade Port on November 18 is expected to impact sales, with a focus on the fourth quarter of 2025 for potential recovery in duty-free sales [1] - According to Founder Securities, if sales continue to improve, the company may see an upward turning point in operations, maintaining a neutral to optimistic outlook for 2026 performance, supported by recent favorable duty-free sales policies [1]

Core Viewpoint - China Duty Free Group (01880) experienced a significant decline of over 5% in early trading, with a current price of HKD 73.8 and a trading volume of HKD 214 million, following the release of its financial results which showed a decrease in revenue and net profit for the third quarter and the first three quarters of the year [1][1][1] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters, the company reported a revenue of CNY 39.862 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 7.34% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was CNY 3.052 billion, down 22.13% year-on-year [1] - In the third quarter, revenue was CNY 11.711 billion, showing a slight decline of 0.38% year-on-year [1] - The net profit for the third quarter was CNY 0.452 billion, which represents a significant drop of 28.94% year-on-year [1] Market Insights - CICC indicated that the company's performance was below previous expectations, primarily due to foreign exchange gains and losses as well as disturbances in minority shareholder equity [1] - The launch of the Hainan Free Trade Port, which is set to enter a 30-day countdown for full island closure on November 18, is seen as a potential catalyst for future sales [1] - Founder Securities suggested monitoring the sales performance of Hainan's offshore duty-free market in Q4 2025; a continued recovery could signal an upward turning point for the company, maintaining a neutral to optimistic outlook for its 2026 performance [1] - Recent supportive policies for duty-free sales, combined with the impending closure, indicate a clear potential for valuation catalysts [1]

Summary of Hainan Duty-Free Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the Hainan duty-free industry, particularly following the new policies implemented in November 2025, which have significantly impacted sales performance and market dynamics [1][2][5]. Key Points and Arguments - **Sales Growth**: In the first week after the new policy implementation, Hainan's offshore duty-free sales increased by over 30% year-on-year, with the new policy contributing approximately 1.5 percentage points to this growth. The primary drivers of this increase were market recovery and strong sales of electronic products, such as Apple smartphones [1][5]. - **Market Structure**: The product category structure in Hainan's duty-free market remains relatively stable. The share of cosmetics has decreased to 40%-45%, while electronic products account for about 15%, potentially rising to 22%-25% during new product launches. Alcoholic beverages represent nearly 10%, and luxury goods account for approximately 20%-25% [1][9]. - **Market Share and Performance**: China Duty Free Group (CDFG) is expected to recover its market share to around 88% in 2025, outperforming other competitors in terms of revenue and profit growth due to internal adjustments and cost control measures [1][6][18]. - **Consumer Segments**: The new policy allowing local residents to purchase duty-free goods is projected to contribute 3%-4% to overall sales. However, the potential of foreign tourists, especially from non-traditional Eastern European markets, is seen as a more significant opportunity [1][13]. - **Future Sales Projections**: Sales in Hainan's duty-free market are expected to steadily exceed 2024 levels, with conservative growth estimates of 7%-8% for 2026. If supported by favorable policies, double-digit growth is also possible [1][15]. Additional Important Insights - **Supply Chain Advantages**: CDFG has a significant advantage in supply chain management compared to other local state-owned enterprises, which face challenges in brand introduction and product diversity. This positions CDFG favorably in the competitive landscape [4][16]. - **Impact of Tax Policies**: The new tax policies will be implemented gradually, ensuring at least a 20% tax rate difference to protect the duty-free advantage. Basic consumer goods will see a reduced tax rate of 3%-5%, with minimal immediate impact on existing product categories [10][21]. - **Operational Challenges for Competitors**: Other operators, such as Hainan Tourism Investment Development Co., are struggling to maintain competitiveness due to operational inefficiencies and supply chain issues. Their market positions are weakening, while CDFG continues to enhance its operational capabilities [17][19]. - **Cost Control**: CDFG's gross margin for cosmetics is approximately 35%, significantly higher than the 15%-18% margins of other operators. This indicates a strong position in cost control and pricing strategy [20]. - **Regulatory Oversight**: The new policy for local residents includes strict regulatory measures to manage risks, with a focus on data analysis and verification processes to ensure compliance [11]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections regarding the Hainan duty-free industry, highlighting the competitive landscape, consumer behavior, and regulatory environment.