行业 锌期货日报 日期 2025 年 8 月 7 日 021-60635740 期货从业资格号：F3075681 研究员：张平 021-60635734 zhangping@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 有色金属研究团队 研究员：彭婧霖 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：余菲菲 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 请阅读正文后的声明- 2 - 1. 2025 年 8 月 6 日 0#锌主流成交价集中在 22270~22405 元/吨，双燕成交于 22380~22505元/吨，1#锌主流成交于22200~22335元/吨。早盘市场对SMM 均价报价升水 30~50 元/吨，对盘报价几无。第二交易时段，普通国产报 价对 2509 合约升水 20 元/吨，红鹭-v 对 2509 合约升水 20 元/吨，会泽对 2509 合约升水 80~90 元/吨，高价品牌双燕对 2509 合约升水 130 元/吨。 2. 宁 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Zinc Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: August 6, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Nonferrous Metals Research Team [4] - Researchers: Peng Jinglin, Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei [4] Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai zinc market rebounded compared to the previous day, with the main contract ZN2509 closing at 22,380 yuan/ton, up 175 yuan or 0.79%. The trading volume decreased, and the open interest decreased by 4,253 lots to 98,475 lots. The net short position of the top 20 seats decreased by 3,045 lots [7]. - The average monthly TC of domestic zinc concentrates in August increased by 100 yuan to 3,900 yuan/metal ton. Supported by high TC and high by - product profits, smelting enterprises are highly motivated to produce, and the overall zinc ingot supply remains strong [7]. - The "trade - in" policy for consumer goods continues, and the third batch of funds has been allocated. There is an expected increase in zinc demand from infrastructure in the second half of the year. However, the demand is currently weak in the short term, and the operating rates of galvanizing and die - casting zinc alloy are still at historically low levels [7]. - The core contradiction of abundant zinc ore and sufficient zinc ingots in the zinc market is more prominent during the off - season of demand, and the social inventory has continued to accumulate to over 100,000 tons. Short - term bears have closed their positions, but as the price rebounds, the downstream purchasing sentiment has worsened, the spot premium has weakened, and the rebound height of Shanghai zinc is limited, operating in the middle - lower range of the Bollinger Bands [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Futures Market Quotes**: The opening, closing, highest, and lowest prices, as well as the changes and percentage changes of different Shanghai zinc contracts (2508, 2509, 2510) are presented. The main contract ZN2509 had specific price and trading volume changes [7]. - **Supply and Demand Situation**: High TC and by - product profits support strong zinc ingot supply. Demand policies exist, but short - term demand is weak, and the operating rates of related industries are low. The supply - demand contradiction leads to inventory accumulation [7]. - **Market Trend**: The short - term rebound of Shanghai zinc is limited, and it operates in the middle - lower range of the Bollinger Bands [7]. 2. Industry News - **Price and Premium in Different Regions**: The mainstream transaction prices and premiums of 0 zinc and 1 zinc in different regions (including Shanghai, Ningbo, Tianjin, and Guangdong) are reported, showing price differences and market characteristics in each region [8][9]. 3. Data Overview - **Graphs**: The report includes graphs such as the price trends of zinc in two markets, SHFE monthly spreads, SMM seven - region zinc ingot weekly inventory, and LME zinc inventory, with data sources from Wind, SMM, and the research and development department of CCB Futures [11][13]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Zinc Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: August 5, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin, Yu Feifei [3][4] Group 2: Market Review - Futures Market: The opening price of SHFE Zinc 2508 was 22,160 yuan/ton, closing at 22,260 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan or 0.25%. The opening price of SHFE Zinc 2509 was 22,225 yuan/ton, closing at 22,255 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan or 0.40%. The opening price of SHFE Zinc 2510 was 22,235 yuan/ton, closing at 22,250 yuan/ton, down 105 yuan or 0.47%. The main contract 2509 saw a reduction in positions by 5,359 to 102,725 lots [7]. - Supply: In the third quarter, the output of restarted mines continued to recover, leading to a loose supply of zinc ore and an increase in processing fees. The domestic zinc ore TC was reported at 3,800 yuan/metal ton, and the imported TC was reported at 76.25 US dollars/dry ton. The average monthly domestic zinc concentrate TC in August increased by 100 yuan to 3,900 yuan/metal ton. With high TC and high by - product profits, smelting enterprises were highly motivated to produce, and new zinc ingot production capacities were gradually released, resulting in a strong overall zinc ingot supply [7]. - Demand: The "trade - in" policy for consumer goods continued, and the third batch of funds had been allocated. There was an expected increase in zinc demand from infrastructure in the second half of the year. However, demand was currently weak, and the operating rates of galvanizing and die - casting zinc alloy were still at historically low levels [7]. - Market Situation: The core contradiction of loose zinc ore and sufficient zinc ingots was more prominent during the off - season of demand, with continuous inventory pressure. After the digestion of anti - involution sentiment, SHFE zinc prices declined under pressure [7]. Group 3: Industry News - Shanghai Market: On August 4, 2025, the mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was concentrated between 22,185 - 22,315 yuan/ton, and that of 1 zinc was between 22,115 - 22,245 yuan/ton. The morning market quoted a premium of 60 - 80 yuan/ton to the SMM average price. In the second trading session, ordinary domestic zinc was quoted at a premium of 50 - 70 yuan/ton to the 2509 contract [8]. - Ningbo Market: The mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was around 22,135 - 22,245 yuan/ton. The regular brands in Ningbo were quoted at a premium of 5 yuan/ton to the 2509 contract and a premium of 10 yuan/ton to the Shanghai spot price [8]. - Tianjin Market: The mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was between 22,110 - 22,240 yuan/ton, and that of 1 zinc was around 22,180 - 22,260 yuan/ton. The price of Huludao zinc was reported at 22,820 yuan/ton. 0 zinc was generally quoted at a discount of 0 - 20 yuan/ton to the 2509 contract [8]. - Guangdong Market: The mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was between 22,070 - 22,245 yuan/ton. The mainstream brands were quoted at a discount of 35 yuan/ton to the 2509 contract and a discount of 30 yuan/ton to the Shanghai spot price, and the price difference between Shanghai and Guangdong widened [8][9]. Group 4: Data Overview - The report presents data on the weekly inventory of SMM's seven - region zinc ingots (in ten thousand tons), LME zinc inventory (in tons), the price trends of zinc in two markets, and SHFE monthly spreads, with data sources including Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [13][15][16]

Core Viewpoint - China's economy has shown resilience with a GDP growth of 5.3% in the first half of 2025, despite external pressures and internal challenges. The focus is on implementing new policies to sustain economic recovery in the second half of the year [1][4]. Group 1: Economic Policies and Measures - The upcoming Central Political Bureau meeting will assess the economic situation and deploy measures for the second half of the year, with an emphasis on optimizing counter-cyclical adjustment policies [2]. - The introduction of a national childcare subsidy scheme, effective from January 1, 2025, will provide families with 3,600 yuan per year for each child until the age of three, benefiting over 20 million families [2]. - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has allocated 690 billion yuan in special bonds to support the "old for new" consumption policy, with plans for further allocations [3]. Group 2: Consumption and Investment Trends - The "old for new" consumption policy has significantly boosted sales, with over 1.6 trillion yuan in sales from five major categories by mid-2025, surpassing the total sales for 2024 [4]. - Investment in equipment and tools saw a year-on-year increase of 17.3% in the first half of 2025, with specific sectors like computer and office equipment manufacturing growing by 21.5% [5]. Group 3: Employment and Social Policies - The overall employment situation remains stable, with the urban unemployment rate averaging 5.2% in the first half of 2025, slightly down from the previous quarter [12]. - The government has introduced 19 policy measures to stabilize employment, focusing on supporting enterprises, enhancing skills training, and improving employment services [12][13]. - There is a call for increased efforts in social security and healthcare policies to enhance the inclusivity of macroeconomic policies [14].

Economic Growth and Policy Adjustments - China's economy achieved a growth rate of 5.3% in the first half of the year, despite external pressures and internal challenges [1][2] - The upcoming Central Political Bureau meeting at the end of July will assess the current economic situation and outline policies for the second half of the year [1] - Experts anticipate that counter-cyclical adjustment policies will be optimized to enhance employment and economic stability [1][7] Consumer Spending and Investment - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has allocated 690 billion yuan in special bonds to support the "old for new" consumption policy, with plans for additional funding in October [2][5] - The "old for new" policy has significantly boosted sales, with over 1.6 trillion yuan in sales generated from five categories of consumer goods by mid-2025 [3] - Investment in equipment and tools saw a year-on-year increase of 17.3% in the first half of 2025, driven by policies related to "two new" initiatives [3] Employment and Social Policies - The average urban unemployment rate in China was 5.2% in the first half of the year, showing a slight decrease [7] - The government has introduced 19 policy measures to stabilize employment, focusing on supporting businesses and enhancing job training [7] - There is a push for policies that enhance social security and healthcare to further support employment and consumer spending [8] Future Policy Directions - Experts suggest expanding subsidy policies to include sectors like tourism and dining to further stimulate consumption [4][5] - The government aims to optimize the "old for new" consumption policy and enhance the overall consumer environment [5][6] - There is a call for a coordinated approach to fiscal and monetary policies to ensure economic stability and growth [8]

Group 1 - The Ministry of Finance has allocated 300 billion yuan in special bonds to support the consumption upgrade policy, with 69 billion yuan recently distributed for the third batch [1][2] - The "old-for-new" policy has led to a significant increase in consumer activity, with 280 million people applying for subsidies, resulting in over 1.6 trillion yuan in sales [2][3] - Companies like Beiding Technology, TCL Smart Home, and Xiugang Glass have reported increased orders and revenue due to the positive impact of the policy [1][3] Group 2 - Beiding Technology reported a 34.05% increase in revenue to 432 million yuan and a 74.92% increase in net profit to 55.83 million yuan in the first half of 2025 [3] - TCL Smart Home emphasized its commitment to high-quality products, benefiting from the increased consumer demand driven by the policy [3] - Foton Motor expects to sell an additional 80,000 to 100,000 vehicles due to the "old-for-new" policy, projecting a net profit increase of 87.5% [3][4]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the implementation and positive outcomes of the "old for new" consumption policy in China, which has significantly boosted retail sales and consumer participation since its inception in 2025 [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Implementation and Impact - As of July 16, 2025, 280 million people have applied for the "old for new" consumption subsidies, leading to sales exceeding 1.6 trillion yuan [1]. - Retail sales of home appliances and audio-visual equipment, cultural office supplies, communication equipment, and furniture have seen year-on-year growth rates of 30.7%, 25.4%, 24.1%, and 22.9% respectively in the first half of the year [1]. - The retail volume of passenger cars increased by 10.8%, contributing to a 5% year-on-year growth in total retail sales of consumer goods [1]. Group 2: Financial Support and Coordination - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and the Ministry of Finance have allocated a third batch of 69 billion yuan in special long-term bonds to support the "old for new" policy [1]. - An additional 69 billion yuan in special long-term bonds is planned for release in October to further support local implementation of the policy [2]. Group 3: Mechanism Improvement and Oversight - The NDRC, in collaboration with the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Commerce, is working to ensure balanced and effective use of funds across regions and sectors [2]. - Continuous improvement of policy implementation mechanisms is emphasized, including product quality and price monitoring to prevent fraudulent practices [2].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of strengthening domestic circulation as a strategic move to counter external risks and ensure stable economic growth in China [1][3]. Group 1: Domestic Circulation and Economic Growth - The State Council meeting highlighted the need to enhance domestic circulation to promote stable and sustainable economic development, especially in light of increasing external challenges [1]. - The contribution of domestic demand to GDP growth in the first half of the year was 68.8%, with final consumption expenditure accounting for 52%, indicating that domestic consumption is the main driver of economic growth [3][4]. Group 2: Consumption and Investment Trends - In the first half of the year, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 24.5458 trillion yuan, growing by 5.0% year-on-year, with a notable increase in sales following the May Day and Dragon Boat Festival holidays [4]. - Fixed asset investment grew by 2.8% year-on-year, but showed a decline of 0.12% month-on-month in June, indicating a potential slowdown in investment activities [4]. Group 3: Policy Measures to Boost Consumption - The government plans to implement specific measures to boost consumption, including optimizing the "old-for-new" policy for consumer goods, which has already seen sales exceeding 1.4 trillion yuan [4][5]. - The expansion of the "old-for-new" policy to include more product categories is expected to create new consumption growth points and support high-quality, green, and intelligent products [5]. Group 4: Service Consumption Potential - Service retail sales grew by 5.3% year-on-year in the first half, with significant growth in sectors like leisure, transportation, and personalized consumption [7][8]. - The government aims to enhance service consumption by addressing key issues and increasing the supply of diverse services related to daily life, such as dining, healthcare, and education [8]. Group 5: Future Policy Directions - Analysts suggest that the government may introduce new measures to stimulate consumption, including the issuance of long-term special bonds and increasing support for the "old-for-new" policy [8]. - The overall low government debt level and low inflation provide ample room for policies aimed at boosting domestic demand and stabilizing the macroeconomic environment [8].

Group 1 - The State Council emphasizes strengthening the domestic circulation as a strategic move to promote stable and sustainable economic growth [1] - The meeting proposed specific measures such as removing unreasonable restrictions on consumer spending, expanding investment in emerging service industries, and optimizing the old-for-new policy for consumer goods [1][3] - The contribution of domestic demand to GDP growth in the first half of the year was 68.8%, with final consumption expenditure contributing 52% [2] Group 2 - The old-for-new policy for consumer goods is identified as a key measure to expand domestic demand, with sales related to this policy exceeding 1.4 trillion yuan [3][4] - The government plans to issue the third batch of funds for the old-for-new policy in July, focusing on timely and balanced implementation [3] - Service consumption is highlighted as an important area for tapping into consumption potential, with service retail sales growing by 5.3% year-on-year in the first half of the year [5] Group 3 - The State Council calls for targeted actions to enhance policy precision and operability, aiming to address bottlenecks in domestic circulation [6] - There is potential for expanding the scope of the old-for-new policy to include more categories and support high-quality, green, and intelligent products [4][6] - The government has ample policy space to stimulate domestic demand, given its relatively low debt levels and inflation rates compared to other major economies [6]

Economic Growth - China's GDP growth in Q2 was 5.2%, slightly above market expectations of 5.1%[2] - The nominal GDP growth rate decreased by 0.7 percentage points to 3.9% due to low inflation[2] - The economic growth forecast for the second half of the year is maintained at around 4%[10] Domestic Demand - June data showed a significant decline in domestic demand, with retail sales growth dropping from 6.4% in May to 4.8% in June, below the expected 5.3%[3] - Fixed asset investment growth fell by 0.9 percentage points to 2.8%, significantly lower than the market expectation of 3.6%[5] - Real estate sales and prices continued to decline, with property sales down 5.5% in June compared to May's 3.8%[7] Industrial Production and Exports - Industrial production growth increased by 1 percentage point to 6.8%, exceeding market expectations of 5.6%[5] - Exports maintained a robust growth rate, with a trade surplus growth of 24.5% year-on-year in Q2, although lower than Q1's 49%[9] Inflation and Employment - The CPI turned positive in June at 0.1%, ending four months of negative readings, while the core CPI rose slightly to 0.7%[8] - The urban unemployment rate remained stable at 5.0% in June, consistent with expectations[5] Policy Outlook - The upcoming political bureau economic meeting is unlikely to introduce significant new policies, but attention will be on potential real estate support measures and "anti-involution" strategies[11] - Fiscal policy may see an acceleration in government bond issuance, with 2.3 trillion yuan of local government special bonds remaining for the second half of the year[12]