Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the content [1][2][3][4] Core Viewpoint - The supply and demand of coking coal and coke remain relatively stable, with no prominent fundamental contradictions. Market sentiment is easily influenced by macro - factor changes, so prices should be treated with cautious optimism [4] Summary by Related Content Market Performance - Yesterday, the futures prices of coking coal and coke rebounded fluctuately, with coking coal leading the gains, and the night - session continued the strong trend. The spot market is generally stable with a slight upward trend, and some coke enterprises in certain regions plan to raise coke prices [3] Supply - side Situation - The output of clean coal is in a continuous recovery process. This week, the daily average output of clean coal is 77.9 thousand tons, an increase of 2.7 thousand tons compared with the previous week. Mines have a slight increase in inventory, and the current inventory level at the mine end is low due to pre - holiday downstream restocking. The monthly import volume of coal is rising. In September, about 46 million tons of coal were imported, setting a new high for the monthly import volume this year. From January to September, the cumulative import was 346 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.7% with the decline continuously narrowing. The import volume of coking coal is also rising month by month. After the holiday, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal has steadily recovered, with a current daily average of 15.5 thousand tons. The change in Mongolian coal imports needs continuous attention [3] Demand - side Situation - This week, the profitability of coke enterprises has shrunk, which supports their confidence in price - holding. Most coke enterprises maintain a normal production rhythm with a capacity utilization rate of about 74%. Downstream steel still has inventory pressure, especially the inventory of plates is constantly rising. Some steel enterprises in certain regions announced that due to the rise in raw material prices and the decline in finished product prices, steel mill profits are in the red. This week, the daily average pig iron output dropped to 2.4095 million tons, a decrease of 0.59 thousand tons compared with the previous week, and the overall profitability rate is about 55% [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply and demand of coking coal and coke remain relatively stable, with no prominent fundamental contradictions. However, market sentiment is easily disturbed by macro - factors, causing prices to run under pressure [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Contents Market Situation - Recently, the futures prices of coking coal and coke have been oscillating weakly. Although the risk of Sino - US tariff conflicts has no obvious direct impact on coking coal and coke exports, it disturbs market sentiment and increases the probability of price decline [2] - After the first round of coke price increase was implemented, the profits of coke enterprises have been repaired. Most coke enterprises maintain a normal production rhythm, with a capacity utilization rate of around 75%. During the holiday, the transportation capacity in the main production areas was slightly affected, but the overall coke shipment was in order [2] - Steel mills'开工 remains at a relatively high level, with the daily average pig iron output maintaining above 2.4 million tons, which supports the demand for raw materials [2] Coking Coal Market - The coking coal market is generally stable, with individual mine prices adjusting downward from high levels. Currently, the inventory pressure at the coal mine end is not obvious, supporting relatively firm prices [3] - The monthly import volume of coal is increasing. In September, coal imports were about 46 million tons, setting a new high for the single - month import volume this year. From January to September, the cumulative imports were 346 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.7%, and the decline continued to narrow. The import volume of coking coal also increased month by month [3] - It is rumored that after the National Day, Mongolia will increase the transportation capacity of coal through automated loading and unloading, adjusting the daily customs clearance volume from the previous upper limit of 1,500 to 2,000. It will be in trial operation for one month after the National Day, and the specific situation needs continuous tracking [3] Later Concerns - Pay attention to the changes in the blast furnace operation of steel mills and the resumption of coal mines [3]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report title: Coal and Coke Weekly View [1] - Date: October 12, 2025 [2] - Analyst: Zhang Guangshuo [2] Group 2: Investment Rating - Not provided Group 3: Core Viewpoints - Coal and coke may continue weak and volatile due to repeated macro - expectations [3] - After pre - holiday restocking, post - holiday demand is weak and trading atmosphere is cold [4] - The fundamentals of coal and coke show a situation of weak supply and demand, with relatively small marginal contradictions, and the current disk valuation may be dominated by macro factors [5] Group 4: Coal and Coke Fundamentals Data Supply - For coal, FW raw coal is 836.67 (- 39.93), FW clean coal is 426.31 (- 25.64); for coke, independent coking plants' daily average is 66.12 (+ 0.04), and steel mills' coking plants' daily average is 46.38 (- 0.16) [7] Demand - Iron and steel water production is 241.54 (- 0.27) for both coal and coke [7] Inventory - MS total inventory for coal is - 78.8, with various changes in different sectors; for coke, MS total inventory is - 10.1, independent coking + 1.5 [7] Profit - Commodity coal profit is 466 (+ 14), and coking enterprises' average profit is 9 (+ 45) [7] Warehouse Receipt - Mongolian 5 Tangshan warehouse receipt is 1176, and Rizhao standard first - grade coke warehouse receipt is 1568 [7] Group 5: Coking Coal Fundamental Data Supply - Weekly and monthly production data are presented in multiple charts, including 523 sample mine production rates, FW raw coal and clean coal production, and Mongolian coal customs clearance volume [10][14][16] Inventory - Pit - mouth inventory: This week, sample mine raw coal inventory increased by 2.72 tons to 165.05 tons, and clean coal inventory increased by 6.48 tons to 111.16 tons [27] - Port inventory: This week, coking coal port inventory is 294.99 tons, a week - on - week increase of 12.8 tons [29] - Coking plant inventory: Data on inventory and available days are presented in different regions and production capacities [32][34][36] - Steel mill inventory: Data on inventory and available days are presented for 247 steel enterprises and in different regions [37] Group 6: Coke Fundamental Data Supply - Capacity utilization: Data of independent coking enterprises and steel mills are presented, including different production capacity levels and regions [40][42] - Production: Data of independent coking enterprises and steel mills are presented, including daily average production [44][46] Inventory - Coking plant inventory: Data of full - sample and 230 independent coking plants are presented [48] - Steel mill inventory: Data on inventory, available days, and regional breakdown are presented [49][51][52] - Total inventory: Coke total inventory data are presented [54] Demand - Iron production data are provided, and the supply - demand difference is analyzed [56][57] Profit - Coke profit data, including disk profit and average profit of independent coking enterprises, are presented [58][59][60] Group 7: Coal and Coke Futures and Spot Prices Futures - Coking coal futures: Data of 2601 and 2605 contracts, including closing price, change, trading volume, and open interest, are presented [63] - Coke futures: Data of 2601 and 2605 contracts, including closing price, change, trading volume, and open interest, are presented [65] Month - spread - Month - spread data of JM2601 - JM2605 and J2601 - J2605 are presented [68] Spot - Spot price data of coking coal and coke are presented [71] Basis - The coking coal spot has a premium over the 01 contract, and basis data are presented [74][75][76]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Coal and coke supply and demand are both increasing. The peak demand season and pre - holiday restocking by downstream enterprises support the confidence of the raw material market to hold prices. The short - term futures market will continue to fluctuate widely [4] Summary According to Relevant Contents Market Conditions - Yesterday, coal and coke futures prices continued to fluctuate. In the spot market, coal prices in many places continued to rebound slightly, and coke enterprises in many places initiated the first round of price increases due to increased costs. [3] - Since June, coal prices have risen significantly, while coke price increases have lagged behind, with a strong expectation of a compensatory increase. The entire coke industry is in a serious loss state, and the cost side strongly supports coke prices. Considering that steel mills still have profits, steel production is expected to remain at a high level, and coke demand will continue to be strong. Starting from September 26, the ex - factory price of coke will be comprehensively increased by 50 - 85 yuan/ton, and the entire coke industry is recommended to reduce production by more than 30% [3] Fundamental Data - Recently, affected by environmental protection policies in Tangshan, enterprises are required to prepare for hard emission reduction measures before the end of September. However, this round of production restrictions is mostly voluntary, and the actual implementation of production cuts is average. This week, the daily average pig iron output increased by 1.34 million tons to 242.36 million tons [4] - In the coal mine sector, the production of previously resumed coal mines in Linfen, Shanxi and other places has returned to normal, and the output has continued to rise. Coupled with the production increase of a large mining group in Qinyuan, Changzhi, the output has increased significantly. This week, the daily average output of clean coal was 77.2 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.1 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 2.6 million tons. It is expected that the output of coal mines in the main production areas of Shanxi will not fluctuate much next week, but some coal mines have reported that there will be a short - term shutdown for maintenance during the National Day holiday, and the output may decline slightly during this period [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint of the Report - The supply and demand of coking coal and coke are both increasing. The peak demand season and pre - holiday restocking by downstream enterprises support the confidence of the raw material market. The short - term futures market will maintain a wide - range volatile operation [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Situation - Yesterday, the coking coal and coke futures prices fluctuated as a whole. In the spot market, coal prices in Shanxi have rebounded slightly continuously, and some coke enterprises in Inner Mongolia plan to raise coke prices due to rising costs, while mainstream coke enterprises have not adjusted prices yet [3] - Recently, Tangshan is affected by environmental protection policies, but the actual implementation of production cuts is average. Last week, the daily average pig iron output increased slightly by 0.47 million tons to 2.4102 million tons [3] Supply Side - Last week, coal mines in Shanxi continued to resume production, and output continued to rise. Although the document on checking over - production in Inner Mongolia has raised concerns about coal mine production cuts, the actual reduction in coking coal is limited. In the short term, there is still a small increase space for coal mines in the main producing areas [3] - The import volume of coking coal has been steadily increasing. In August, China imported 1.01622 billion tons of coking coal, a month - on - month increase of 5.6% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.02%. From January to August, the cumulative import was 7.26075 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 632.03 million tons, a decline of 8.01%. In August, the import volume of Mongolian coal was 601.47 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 20.8%. In September, the daily customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port was higher than that in August [3] Market Outlook - Driven by restocking demand, the market may remain strong before the holiday [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply and demand sides of coal and coke are recovering rapidly, especially the rapid rebound of hot metal, which supports the rigid demand for raw materials. However, affected by the recent environmental protection and production restriction policies in Tangshan, the upward movement of the futures market is somewhat weak, and it will maintain a wide - range volatile operation in the short term [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Conditions - Yesterday, the prices of coal and coke futures fluctuated weakly. The Fed cut interest rates as expected, and the dot - plot indicates two more cuts this year. In the spot market, coal prices in Shanxi rebounded slightly, and some coking enterprises in Inner Mongolia plan to raise coke prices next week due to rising costs [3] - Recently, due to the severe air quality situation in Tangshan, coking enterprises are required to extend the coking time by 30% from September 15th to September 30th. The production restriction is mostly voluntary, and the specific plan is not clear [3] Steel Mill Data - This week, the profitability rate of 247 steel mills was 58.87%, a decrease of 1.30 percentage points from last week. The daily average hot metal output increased slightly by 0.47 million tons to 2.4102 million tons, and there is no overall production reduction in steel mills [3] Coal Mine Conditions - This week, coal mines in Shanxi continued to resume production, and the output continued to rise. Although the document on over - production inspection in Inner Mongolia has raised concerns about coal mine production reduction, there is still a small increase in production in major coal - producing areas in the short term, and the market will remain strong before the festival [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The coking coal and coke futures prices fluctuated yesterday. The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp, and the dot - plot indicates two more cuts this year. Due to the poor air quality in Tangshan, coking enterprises are required to extend the coking time by 30% from September 15th to 30th, but the specific production - limit plan is not clear. The supply and demand sides of coking coal and coke are recovering rapidly, especially the rapid rebound of hot metal, which supports the rigid demand for raw materials. However, affected by the recent environmental production - limit policy in Tangshan, the upward movement of the market is weak, and it will run in a short - term shock. [2][3] Group 3: Summary by Related Content 1. Market Information - The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp, and the dot - plot shows two more cuts this year due to concerns about the US labor market. Tangshan requires enterprises to prepare for hard emission - reduction measures from September 15th to 30th, and coking enterprises should extend the coking time by 30%. The production - limit is mostly voluntary, and the specific plan is unclear. [2] 2. Supply Side - This week, coal mines in Shanxi continued to resume production, and the output continued to rise. Although the document on over - production inspection in Inner Mongolia has raised concerns about coal mine production cuts, there is still a small increase in production in the short term. [3] 3. Demand Side - The resumption of production in steel mills is fast, and the daily average hot metal output last week quickly rebounded to over 2.4 million tons. The current profitability rate of steel mills is 60.17%, a decrease of 0.87 percentage points compared with last week and an increase of 54.11 percentage points compared with last year. The finished products are in the process of continuous inventory accumulation, and the profit of steel mills has narrowed, which may limit the growth space of hot metal and test the raw material demand in the later stage. [3] 4. Market Outlook - The resumption of production on both the supply and demand sides of coking coal and coke is fast, especially the rapid rebound of hot metal, which supports the rigid demand for raw materials. However, affected by the environmental production - limit policy in Tangshan, the upward movement of the market is weak, and it will run in a short - term shock. [3] 5. Later Concerns - Pay attention to the changes in the blast furnace start - up of steel mills and the resumption of production in coal mines. [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The supply and demand of coking coal and coke are recovering rapidly, especially the rapid rebound of hot metal, which supports the rigid demand for raw materials. Attention should be paid to the pre - holiday replenishment actions of downstream enterprises [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Market Performance - Last week, the coking coal and coke futures prices fluctuated overall and closed slightly lower on a weekly basis. On the spot side, the transaction of high - priced resources at some coal mines was weak, and the prices remained stable with a slight decline. Last Friday, steel mills started the second round of price cuts for coke, planning to implement it this week [3] Supply Side - The coking coal market remained weak, with transaction prices mainly falling. The enthusiasm of downstream buyers remained weak. However, after some coal mines cut prices, sales improved. The market still expected pre - National Day replenishment. Last week, coal production gradually recovered, with the daily average clean coal output of 523 coal mines reaching 728,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 35,000 tons. Affected by production cuts and improved sales after price cuts at some coal mines, mine - end inventories decreased [3] Demand Side - The resumption of production in steel mills was relatively fast. Last week, the daily average hot metal output unexpectedly rebounded to 2.4055 million tons, an increase of 117,100 tons from the previous week, returning to the level before the production limit. Currently, the profitability rate of steel mills is 60.17%, a decrease of 0.87 percentage points from last week and an increase of 54.11 percentage points compared with last year. Finished products are in a continuous inventory accumulation process, and the profits of steel mills have narrowed, which may limit the rebound space of hot metal. In the later stage, the demand for raw materials will face a test [4]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoint The supply and demand sides of coal and coke have implemented production cuts, but most of the production cut cycles are short. Attention should be paid to the resumption process. The market sentiment is generally cooling down but still fluctuating, and prices are under pressure and oscillating [3][4]. 3) Summary by Related Content Market Performance - Yesterday, coal and coke futures prices oscillated, and there was a rapid rise near the close of the night session. On the spot side, the high - priced resources of some coal mines had weak sales, and prices were stable with a slight decline. The first round of coke price reduction has been implemented [3]. Supply Side - Last week, due to the military parade, many coal mines in Shanxi stopped production for maintenance, leading to a significant decline in coal production. This week, production is gradually recovering. The daily average coking coal output of 523 coal mines this week is 72.8 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.5 million tons. Mine - end inventory has decreased [3]. Demand Side - Last week, the steel mill production cut expectation was realized. The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills' blast furnaces was 228.84 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 11.29 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 6.23 million tons. Most steel mills resumed production on September 4, and short - term hot metal output tends to rise. However, due to factors such as continuous inventory accumulation of finished products and narrowing steel mill profits, raw material demand will face challenges later [4].

Group 1 - Report industry investment rating: Not provided Group 2 - The core view of the report: The production cut expectations at both the supply and demand ends of coking coal and coke have been realized, and production will gradually resume in the short term, but the resumption process remains to be observed; the market sentiment is generally cooling down, and prices are under pressure [3] Group 3 Market condition summary - Yesterday, the overall prices of coking coal and coke futures first declined and then rose, with a slight increase during the night session. As the 09 contract entered the delivery month, the futures prices moved from premium to flat or even discount due to weak willingness to buy for delivery, dragging down the prices of other contracts. On the spot side, the high - priced resources of some coal mines had weak trading, with prices stable or slightly lower. Hebei steel mills started to lower coke prices, with wet - quenched coke down 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke down 55 yuan/ton, to be implemented at 0:00 on September 8, 2025 [2] Supply situation - Since this week, affected by the military parade, many coal mines in Shanxi have carried out centralized maintenance, mostly for 2 - 3 days. The regional and large - scale shutdown of coal mines, combined with the cancellation of night shifts in some areas, led to a significant decline in production. However, as most coal mines had short shutdown times and many resumed production on September 4, the coking coal production in the main producing areas is expected to recover rapidly next week [2] Demand situation - This week, the steel mill production cut expectations were realized. The average daily hot metal output of 247 steel mill blast furnaces was 228.84 tons, a decrease of 11.29 tons compared to the previous week and an increase of 6.23 tons year - on - year. The production cut was more obvious in the Tangshan market. Most steel mills resumed production on September 4, with a few delaying the resumption. In the short term, hot metal production tends to recover, but according to past experience, it is usually difficult for production to return to pre - cut levels after a decline in the second half of the year, especially in the fourth quarter, and raw material demand will face challenges later [2]