Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Steel**: The spot and futures prices of steel have corrected, with reduced spot trading volume and a still weak market sentiment. Macro - level, US interest rate cuts are beneficial for mid - cycle liquidity and risk appetite, and the follow - up of domestic policies needs to be observed. Industry - level, steel demand in the off - season is not strong, and the improvement in building materials' apparent demand is not significant. There is cost support due to high hot metal production and pre - National Day furnace charge restocking, but high production of building materials poses a potential risk. Futures trading suggests waiting and seeing, and for basis - stage buying hedging positions, consider rolling profit - taking before the National Day according to spot exposure [3]. - **Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon**: Market sentiment has improved, but there are concerns in the fundamentals. The industry's average profit has been restored, and supply continues to increase. With the arrival of the "Golden September and Silver October", terminal demand needs verification, and the risk of a decline in hot metal and electric furnace start - up accumulates, which may impact demand. Current industry inventories are still high, and there is pressure to reduce inventories [3]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Coking coal spot prices are strong. Before the National Day, due to restocking, coking coal auction transactions are good, and prices mostly rise. Futures are oscillating. Although there are positive macro - news, the market shows a "sell - on - news" sign. From an industry perspective, the cost support is verified, but due to the lack of obvious improvement in terminal demand, the upward driving force is limited. It is recommended to gradually liquidate long positions before the National Day and use selling hedging when prices rise [3]. - **Iron Ore**: There are many rumors in the market during the iron ore conference week. Steel mills' hot metal production has slightly increased, and the profit rate has declined. Steel mills' restocking for the National Day is almost over. Before the National Day, factors such as restricted circulation of mineral resources and restocking support iron ore prices, but the upside depends on steel demand. The long - term view is to buy on dips [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Futures Market - **Contract Closing Prices**: On September 23, for far - month contracts, RB2605 closed at 3212 yuan/ton (- 33 yuan, - 1.02%), HC2605 at 3351 yuan/ton (- 42 yuan, - 1.24%), etc.; for near - month contracts, RB2601 closed at 3155 yuan/ton (- 32 yuan, - 1.00%), HC2601 at 3340 yuan/ton (- 45 yuan, - 1.33%) [1]. - **Spreads and Ratios**: On September 23, the spread between RB2601 and RB2605 was - 57 yuan/ton (+ 2 yuan), the spread between HC2601 and HC2605 was - 11 yuan/ton (- 3 yuan), etc. The coil - to - rebar spread was 185 yuan/ton (- 10 yuan), the rebar - to - ore ratio was 3.93 (- 0.01), etc. [1]. Spot Market - **Prices**: On September 23, Shanghai rebar was 3250 yuan/ton (- 40 yuan), Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3370 yuan/ton (- 70 yuan), etc. [1]. - **Basis**: On September 23, the basis of HC main contract was 30 yuan/ton (- 30 yuan), the basis of RB main contract was 95 yuan/ton (- 10 yuan), etc. [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply and demand of coking coal and coke are both increasing. The downstream starts pre - holiday stockpiling, which supports the confidence of the raw material market. The short - term futures market will maintain a wide - range volatile operation [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Conditions - Yesterday, the coking coal and coke futures prices fluctuated. In the spot market, coal prices in Shanxi rebounded slightly continuously, and some coking enterprises in Inner Mongolia planned to raise coke prices due to rising costs [2] - In August, China's coking coal imports were 1.01622 billion tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.6% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.02%. From January to August, the cumulative imports were 7.26075 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 632.03 million tons, a decline of 8.01%. In August, Mongolian coal imports were 601.47 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 20.8% [2] - Recently, Tangshan has been affected by environmental protection policies, with a planned production restriction from September 15th to September 30th. Most of the production restrictions are voluntary. The profitability rate of 247 steel mills was 58.87%, a decrease of 1.30 percentage points from the previous week. The daily average pig iron output increased slightly by 0.47 million tons to 2.4102 billion tons, and there was no overall production reduction in steel mills [3] Raw Materials - Last week, coal mines in Shanxi continued to resume production, and output continued to increase. Although the document on over - production inspection in Inner Mongolia caused concerns about coal mine production reduction, the actual reduction in coking coal was limited. In the short term, there is still a slight increase in production space for coal mines in the main production areas, and the market may remain strong before the holiday [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, the demand for rebar starts to gradually recover with the arrival of the peak season, and rebar inventory begins to decline slightly. Attention should be paid to whether there are signs of marginal improvement in delivery warrants and foreign capital positions to support the stabilization and rebound of the futures market [5][8]. - The short - term import iron ore shipment volume shows a significant rebound, the arrival volume drops slightly, and port inventory still faces certain pressure. The demand side sees a slight increase in daily molten iron output and a simultaneous rebound in steel mill daily consumption. It is expected that the iron ore futures market will maintain a relatively strong consolidation trend [9]. 3. Summary by Sections Rebar - **Futures**: This week, the rebar 01 contract maintained a relatively strong operation driven by the increase in long - position main force positions. As of Friday, it closed at 3172 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan from last week, with a weekly increase of 1.44% [5]. - **Spot**: The mainstream rebar prices in various regions started to rise slightly this week, and overall transactions improved slightly. As of Friday, the national average rebar price rose 24 yuan to 3299 yuan/ton [5]. - **Fundamentals** - **Supply**: The blast furnace operating rate of 247 domestic steel mills was 83.98%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.15% and a year - on - year increase of 5.75%. The rebar weekly output decreased by 5.48 tons to 206.45 tons week - on - week, still at a low level year - on - year [5]. - **Demand**: This week, both building material trading volume and rebar apparent consumption increased slightly. The 5 - day average building material trading volume increased by 0.45 tons to 10.70 tons week - on - week, and rebar apparent consumption increased by 11.96 tons to 210.03 tons week - on - week [8]. - **Inventory**: This week, the inventory of five major steel products continued to accumulate slightly, while rebar inventory started to decline slightly. As of Friday, the total rebar inventory decreased by 3.58 tons to 650.28 tons [8]. - **Basis**: As of Friday, the lowest warehouse receipt quote for rebar in Shanghai was 3260 yuan/ton, with a premium of 88 yuan over the rebar 01 contract, a contraction of 5 yuan from last week [8]. Iron Ore - **Futures**: This week, the iron ore 01 contract maintained a relatively strong consolidation trend driven by the increase in long - position main force positions. As of Friday, it closed at 807.5 yuan/ton, up 8.0 yuan/ton from last week, with a weekly increase of 1.0% [8]. - **Spot**: This week, the prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties continued to rise slightly, and the prices of domestic iron ore concentrates started to rise steadily. Overall transactions were average [8]. - **Fundamentals** - **Supply**: As of the 15th, the total shipment volume of Australian and Brazilian iron ore was 2977.8 million tons, an increase of 648.2 million tons week - on - week. The arrival volume of 45 ports was 2362.3 million tons, a decrease of 85.7 million tons week - on - week [9]. - **Demand**: Currently, the daily average ore removal volume of 45 ports is 339.17 million tons, an increase of 7.89 million tons week - on - week. The daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills is 241.02 million tons, an increase of 0.47 million tons from last week [9]. - **Inventory**: As of the 19th, the iron ore inventory of 45 ports continued to accumulate slightly, currently at 13801.08 million tons, a decrease of 48.39 million tons week - on - week [9]. - **Basis**: As of Friday, the Newman powder at Rizhao Port, the optimal delivery product, was 844 yuan/ton, with a premium of 36 yuan over the iron ore 01 contract, a contraction of 1 yuan from last week [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Overall Viewpoint**: The report analyzes the black - chain industry, including various products such as steel products, iron ore, coal - coke, and ferroalloys. It points out that different products have different market trends, with overall market conditions affected by factors like supply - demand relationships, production capacity utilization, and macro - policies [9][10][13]. - **Specific Product Viewpoints**: - **Steel Products**: The steel market shows a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, with steel prices expected to oscillate at a low level. The overall trend is weak [9]. - **Iron Ore**: In the short term, iron ore prices are expected to oscillate at a high level, supported by pre - holiday restocking. The price of the main contract (2601 contract) is expected to range between 790 - 820 yuan/ton, corresponding to an external market FE10 price of about 105 - 108 US dollars/ton [10]. - **Coal - Coke**: In the short term, the rapid resumption of production at both the supply and demand ends of coal - coke, especially the rapid increase in hot metal production, supports the rigid demand for raw materials. Pre - holiday restocking by downstream industries is expected to boost market sentiment [12]. - **Ferroalloys**: The market has entered the traditional peak season, but the short - term demand is still not up to expectations. The market sentiment is cautious. Ferroalloys maintain a situation of strong supply and weak demand, with inventory pressure increasing, and prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Market Review - **Futures and Spot Prices**: From September 5th to September 12th, 2025, the prices of various products showed different trends. For example, the price of the RB2601 contract of rebar decreased by 16 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.51%, and the spot price of HRB400E: Φ20 in Shanghai decreased by 20 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.62%. The price of the HC2601 contract of hot - rolled coil increased by 24 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.72%, and the spot price in Shanghai increased by 20 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.59% [7]. 3.2 This Week's Black Market Forecast - **Steel Products**: The supply is strong and the demand is weak. Last week, the scale of steel mill maintenance decreased significantly, and the scale of resumption of production increased. The daily average hot metal output increased, but the downstream demand was weak, dragging down steel prices. The overall trend is weak [9]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply is expected to increase steadily. Although the demand has increased in the short term due to pre - holiday restocking, in the medium term, the supply - demand relationship is changing from tight to balanced. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level [10]. - **Coal - Coke**: The futures prices oscillated last week, with a slight weekly decline. The coking coal market is generally weak, but there are expectations for pre - National Day restocking. The rapid increase in hot metal production supports the demand for raw materials, and pre - holiday restocking is expected to boost market sentiment [12]. - **Ferroalloys**: The demand is not up to expectations for the time being. The supply is relatively high, and the inventory is increasing. The prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [13]. 3.3 Product Data 3.3.1 Steel Products - **Rebar**: Last week, the output was 211.93 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6.75 tons; the apparent demand was 198.07 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.00 tons. The total inventory was 653.86 tons, a week - on - week increase of 13.86 tons [15][23]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Last week, the output was 325.14 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10.90 tons; the apparent demand was 326.16 tons, a week - on - week increase of 20.80 tons. The total inventory was 373.32 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.02 tons [29][33]. 3.3.2 Iron Ore - **Port Inventory**: This week, the total import ore port inventory was 13849.47 tons, a week - on - week increase of 24.15 tons; the port Australian ore inventory was 5806.51 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 69.51 tons; the port Brazilian ore inventory was 5228.22 tons, a week - on - week increase of 109.26 tons [44]. - **Steel Mill Inventory and Consumption**: This week, the inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 8993.05 tons, a week - on - week increase of 53.18 tons; the daily consumption was 296.65 tons/day, a week - on - week increase of 15.98 tons [54]. 3.3.3 Coal - Coke - **Coke Inventory**: Last week, the total coke inventory (coke enterprises + steel mills + ports) was 906.21 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10.95 tons [84]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: Last week, the total coking coal inventory (coke enterprises + steel mills + coal mines + ports + coal washing plants) was 2483.41 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 62.28 tons [98]. 3.3.4 Ferroalloys - **Spot Prices**: Last week, the price of semi - carbonated manganese ore in Tianjin Port was 33.8 yuan/dry ton degree, a week - on - week increase of 0.3 yuan; the spot price of ferromanganese in Inner Mongolia was 5650 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 30 yuan; the spot price of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia was 5280 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 30 yuan [121]. - **Production and Demand**: Last week, the output of 187 independent ferromanganese enterprises was 214130 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1295 tons; the demand for ferromanganese in five major steel products decreased by 1.09% week - on - week [129][133].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market has fully priced in the Fed's interest rate cut. It is expected that the market trading focus will shift to real - world factors. With the arrival of the peak season for domestic terminals, the market will trade more based on the fundamental changes of the black - series commodities. In the short term, iron ore supply is steadily increasing, and demand is falling from a high level under the backdrop of a significant decline in blast furnace profits. The medium - term supply - demand relationship is changing from tight - balance to balance, but the pre - holiday restocking demand will still support prices. It is expected that iron ore prices will mainly maintain a high - level oscillating trend [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - External ore shipments have significantly declined, mainly due to a sharp drop in Vale's shipments and non - mainstream shipments, while Australian shipments are relatively stable. The arrival volume is slightly lower than the same period last year. As the previous high - volume shipments continue to arrive at ports, the pressure on the supply side is expected to gradually emerge, and overall, the support from the supply side is continuously weakening [2] Demand - With the end of environmental protection restrictions in North China, domestic demand has recovered to the previous level. The daily average pig iron output this period is 240.55 (a month - on - month increase of 11.71). Although the steel mill profitability rate has been continuously declining, it is still at a high level compared to the same period in the past five years (only lower than 2021). After the high - level blast furnace profits have declined, they are approaching the break - even level, and the short - process steelmaking is in a state of full - scale losses. Near the National Day holiday, steel mills have a concentrated restocking demand, and their inventory levels are low. The short - term restocking demand may support iron ore prices [3] Inventory - The daily consumption at the steel mill end has increased simultaneously with the resumption of production in multiple regions. The inventory level has increased slightly but is lower than the same period last year. In the middle and late part of the month, as the pre - holiday restocking period begins, the steel mill inventory will seasonally increase. Later, attention should be paid to whether the National Day restocking intensity exceeds expectations. This period, the port inventory has continued a slight increasing trend. With the lifting of environmental protection restrictions, the out - port volume has significantly increased. At the same time, the pre - holiday restocking in China will drive the inventory level down [3] Price - Iron ore prices are oscillating within a certain range [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The supply and demand of coking coal and coke are recovering rapidly, especially the rapid rebound of hot metal, which supports the rigid demand for raw materials. Attention should be paid to the pre - holiday replenishment actions of downstream enterprises [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Market Performance - Last week, the coking coal and coke futures prices fluctuated overall and closed slightly lower on a weekly basis. On the spot side, the transaction of high - priced resources at some coal mines was weak, and the prices remained stable with a slight decline. Last Friday, steel mills started the second round of price cuts for coke, planning to implement it this week [3] Supply Side - The coking coal market remained weak, with transaction prices mainly falling. The enthusiasm of downstream buyers remained weak. However, after some coal mines cut prices, sales improved. The market still expected pre - National Day replenishment. Last week, coal production gradually recovered, with the daily average clean coal output of 523 coal mines reaching 728,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 35,000 tons. Affected by production cuts and improved sales after price cuts at some coal mines, mine - end inventories decreased [3] Demand Side - The resumption of production in steel mills was relatively fast. Last week, the daily average hot metal output unexpectedly rebounded to 2.4055 million tons, an increase of 117,100 tons from the previous week, returning to the level before the production limit. Currently, the profitability rate of steel mills is 60.17%, a decrease of 0.87 percentage points from last week and an increase of 54.11 percentage points compared with last year. Finished products are in a continuous inventory accumulation process, and the profits of steel mills have narrowed, which may limit the rebound space of hot metal. In the later stage, the demand for raw materials will face a test [4]