1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - High-sulfur fuel oil: Domestic high-sulfur spot is abundant in the near term, with the near-month internal and external price difference oscillating at a low level below zero. Asian high-sulfur supply remains at a high level, and the spot premium in Singapore continues to oscillate at a low level. The supply pressure in the third quarter is slightly less than expected. Demand is supported by the peak season of refined oil, the decline in high-sulfur cracking, and the increase in fuel oil consumption tax deduction in China. Seasonal power generation demand is gradually declining [3]. - Low-sulfur fuel oil: The spot premium of low-sulfur fuel oil oscillates. Supply continues to recover, but there is no specific driver for downstream demand. Attention should be paid to the adjustment and issuance rhythm of low-sulfur quotas in the near term [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Comprehensive Analysis** - High-sulfur: Domestic supply is abundant, Asian supply is high, and demand is supported by multiple factors. Seasonal power generation demand is decreasing [3]. - Low-sulfur: Supply is increasing, demand lacks drivers, and attention should be paid to quota adjustments [3]. - **Strategies** - Unilateral: Wait and see. Pay attention to geopolitical and macro disturbances [4]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. Pay attention to the digestion of near-term high-sulfur spot and the adjustment or issuance of low-sulfur quotas [4]. - Options: No specific view [4] 3.2 Core Logic Analysis - **Supply Side** - Russia: High-sulfur exports increased slightly in July. Refinery offline capacity increased due to maintenance and domestic demand. Sanctions from the EU and the US continue [6]. - Mexico: High-sulfur supply decreased significantly. Olmeca's secondary device was put into operation, and the processing volume of some refineries decreased. High-sulfur exports remained at a low level [9]. - Middle East: High-sulfur exports were stable at a low level. The impact of the Iraq oil field attack on supply was limited. Sanctions on Iran continued. Summer power generation demand in Saudi Arabia and Iran may divert supply [14]. - South Sudan: Low-sulfur heavy raw material supply recovered stably, and the number of export tenders in August increased compared to July [24]. - Al-Zour Refinery: Low-sulfur exports are expected to remain at a high level, and exports to the pan-Singapore region increased [27]. - Nigeria: The RFCC device of Dangote Refinery is still unstable, and low-sulfur export tenders continue to be issued [28]. - **Demand Side** - High-sulfur: Ship fuel demand is stable, and the marginal increase comes from the stable growth of the number of desulfurization tower ships. Power generation demand is expected to gradually subside in August and September. China's fuel oil consumption tax deduction ratio is expected to increase, which will support feedstock demand [15][18][23]. - Low-sulfur: Ship fuel demand is stable, but there is no specific driver [31]. 3.3 Weekly Data Tracking - **Price and Spread** - Fuel oil spot prices and spreads are presented in various charts, including the relationship between high-sulfur and low-sulfur fuel oil and Brent crude oil, as well as cross-regional and cross-period spreads [39][40][43]. - **Inventory** - Inventory data of fuel oil in Singapore, ARA, Fujairah, Japan, the US, and other regions are provided, along with the inventory structure of gasoline, diesel, and refined oil in Northwest Europe and the US Gulf [66][74][76]. - **Terminal Sales** - In June, Singapore's ship fuel bunkering volume decreased slightly compared to the previous month but increased compared to the same period last year. The proportion of high-sulfur and low-sulfur ship fuel bunkering changed [79].

Core Viewpoint - Fuel oil futures showed a strong fluctuation, with the main contract reaching a peak of 3001.00 yuan and closing at 2984.00 yuan, reflecting a 0.95% increase [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - High-sulfur fuel oil is expected to experience a short-term rebound due to increased demand from power generation and refining, despite mid-term supply pressures [2] - The supply of fuel oil remains ample, with Middle Eastern loading volumes unaffected by regional conflicts, leading to a cautious outlook on price stabilization [3] - The cost of high-sulfur fuel oil is expected to remain weak in the short term, while low-sulfur fuel oil prices are anticipated to maintain a stable range [4] Group 2: Institutional Perspectives - Everbright Futures recommends shorting high-sulfur crack spreads at elevated prices [5] - Southwest Futures suggests a wait-and-see approach for the main fuel oil contract, indicating a cautious stance in the current market [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market supply is expected to remain stable, with the cross - month spread narrowing to the lowest level since January. The expected increase in high - sulfur fuel oil demand during the Middle - East summer peak has not had a substantial impact on supply. The market is currently neutral [3]. - The basis shows that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price, which is a bullish signal. Singapore's fuel oil inventory decreased in the week of June 18, also a bullish factor. The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is trending upward, which is bullish. However, the main positions in both high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil are short, and the short positions are increasing, which is bearish [3]. - With the significant decline in crude oil prices and the upcoming negotiation between Iran and Israel, the fuel oil market is under pressure. It is expected to trade in a low - level range in the short term. The FU2509 is expected to trade between 2980 - 3030, and the LU2508 between 3680 - 3740 [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: Asian high - sulfur fuel oil supply is stable, demand is moderate, and the cross - month spread is narrowing. The expected demand increase in the Middle - East has not changed the supply situation [3]. - **Basis**: Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil basis is 158 yuan/ton, and low - sulfur is 78 yuan/ton, with spot premiums over futures [3]. - **Inventory**: Singapore fuel oil inventory in the week of June 18 was 2289.9 million barrels, a decrease of 22 million barrels [3][8]. - **Disk**: The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is trending upward [3]. - **Main Positions**: High - sulfur and low - sulfur main positions are short, and short positions are increasing [3]. - **Expectation**: Crude oil prices are falling, and the negotiation between Iran and Israel restricts the upside of fuel oil. Short - term low - level range - bound trading is expected [3]. 3.2 Multi - Empty Concerns - **Bullish Factors**: Deterioration of the Middle - East situation and the expected increase in summer power - generation demand [4]. - **Bearish Factors**: The optimistic demand outlook needs to be verified, and there is a possibility of relaxed sanctions on Russia [4]. - **Market Drivers**: The supply is affected by geopolitical risks, and demand is neutral [4]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - **Futures Prices**: The previous FU main - contract futures price was 3206, and the current price is 3020, a decrease of 186 (5.80%). The previous LU main - contract futures price was 3825, and the current price is 3686, a decrease of 139 (3.63%) [5]. - **Basis**: Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil basis is 158 yuan/ton, and low - sulfur is 78 yuan/ton [3]. - **Inventory**: Singapore fuel oil inventory data from April 9 to June 18 shows fluctuations, with a decrease of 22 million barrels in the week of June 18 [8]. 3.4 Spread Data The report presents a graph of the high - low sulfur futures spread from 2021 - 09 - 07 to 2025 - 06 - 07, but no specific numerical analysis of the spread is provided [13]. 3.5 Inventory Data - Singapore fuel oil inventory data from April 9 to June 18 shows that the inventory on June 18 was 2289.9 million barrels, a decrease of 22 million barrels compared to the previous week [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - High-sulfur fuel oil spot window transactions are active with high transaction prices, supporting the rebound of high-sulfur spot premiums. In the short term, attention should be paid to the progress of the Russia-Ukraine negotiations and the return of Russian refineries from seasonal spring maintenance. Russia's high-sulfur exports remain stable for now. Mexico's high-sulfur exports are declining as the secondary production capacity of its refineries improves. The US-Iran negotiations have made no substantial progress, and high-sulfur exports from the Middle East are expected to decline in May. On the demand side, the seasonal power generation demand for high-sulfur fuel oil provides support, with high import demand from Egypt and Saudi Arabia remaining at a high level. - The spot premium of low-sulfur fuel oil is fluctuating, but the supply of low-sulfur fuel oil continues to increase while downstream demand remains weak. The operation of the FCC gasoline unit at Nigeria's Dangote refinery is still unstable, leading to a continuous supply of low-sulfur fuel oil. South Sudan's low-sulfur raw material supply is gradually returning to the level at the beginning of 2024, with 8 shipments of low-sulfur cargoes expected to be loaded in May and June. The first shipment of 600,000 barrels in May is expected to arrive in the Singapore-Malaysia region in late May. Al-Zour's low-sulfur exports have rebounded to the high level during normal refinery operations. In the Chinese market, the production plan for low-sulfur fuel oil in June is expected to increase, with sufficient supply and stable demand in the domestic market. - The trading strategy suggests a wait-and-see approach for unilateral trading, and a long position in the FU9-1 calendar spread when the price is low. There is no option trading recommendation. [3][4] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy Comprehensive Analysis - High-sulfur fuel oil: The active spot window transactions and high prices support the rebound of spot premiums. Attention should be paid to the Russia-Ukraine negotiations and Russian refinery maintenance. Mexico's exports are declining, and Middle East exports are expected to fall in May. Seasonal power generation demand provides support. - Low-sulfur fuel oil: The spot premium is fluctuating, supply is increasing, and demand is weak. Nigeria's Dangote refinery has a continuous supply, South Sudan's exports are recovering, Al-Zour's exports are at a high level, and China's production plan for June is expected to increase. [3] Strategy - Unilateral: Wait and see. - Arbitrage: Go long on the FU9-1 calendar spread when the price is low. - Options: No recommendation. [4] Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis 1. Escalation of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict and the Gradual Return of Russian Refinery Capacity - The conflict has intensified, and the EU is considering new sanctions. Russian refinery capacity is gradually returning after spring maintenance, with an expected increase in oil product exports from the Black Sea port of Tuapse in June. In the first week of June, Russia's high-sulfur exports decreased, and exports to Asia were temporarily halted. [6] 2. Mexico's High-Sulfur Supply Drops to the Level Before the Commissioning of the Olmeca Refinery - The Olmeca refinery's processing volume has stabilized, and its secondary devices are operating smoothly. Other refineries' operating conditions have also changed. In the first week of June, Mexico's high-sulfur exports were around the average level, and total exports in May decreased compared to the previous month and the same period last year. [9] 3. Lack of Substantial Progress in US-Iran Negotiations and Diversion of High-Sulfur Supply in the Middle East Due to Power Generation Demand - The US-Iran negotiations have been ongoing, but there has been no substantial progress. Sanctions on Iran and Russia continue. Saudi Arabia and Iran's summer power generation demand is expected to divert their external supply. In May, high-sulfur exports from the Middle East decreased as expected, and Iran's exports remained at a low level. [12] 4. High-Sulfur Power Generation Demand Enters the Peak Season in the Second and Third Quarters - Egypt's summer power generation demand provides support, with an increase in fuel oil import tenders. South Asia's power generation demand increases in the second quarter. Middle East's high-sulfur power generation demand has increased in advance, with Saudi Arabia increasing imports from Russia. [15] 5. Chinese Refineries' Recent Purchase意愿 May Decline; Feedstock Demand in India and the UAE Increases - Sanctions on Iran and Russia continue, affecting China's fuel oil import costs. China's high-sulfur fuel oil imports in April remained stable. India's feedstock demand rebounded in May, and the UAE's Ruwais refinery has recent feedstock demand. [18] 6. High-Sulfur Marine Fuel Demand Remains Stable, with Marginal Increases from the Steady Growth in the Number of Ships with Desulfurization Towers - The number of ships with desulfurization towers is growing steadily. Singapore's high-sulfur marine fuel sales in April increased compared to the previous month and the same period last year, and the market share of high-sulfur fuel oil in the UAE's Fujairah port also increased. [21] 7. Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil: Sudan's Port Exports are Disturbed by Air Strikes, but South Sudan's Export Tenders Continue - South Sudan's external raw material supply is gradually recovering. After the port was attacked, exports were temporarily suspended and then resumed. There have been multiple export tenders in May and June, with shipments expected to arrive in the Singapore-Malaysia region in May and June. [24] 8. Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil: Exports from the Middle East's Al-Zour Refinery Remain at a High Level, and Supply to the Pan-Singapore Region Increases Month-on-Month - The Al-Zour refinery has issued new tenders for low-sulfur fuel oil sales. Exports have remained at a high level since March, and exports to the Pan-Singapore region have continued to recover. Attention should be paid to the return of South Sudan's low-sulfur heavy crude oil supply. [27] 9. Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil: Nigeria's Near-Term Low-Sulfur Supply is Abundant, All Directed to Singapore - The FCC gasoline unit at the Dangote refinery is still unstable, resulting in a continuous supply of low-sulfur fuel oil. The refinery has issued multiple tenders for low-sulfur fuel oil sales. The Harcourt refinery is undergoing maintenance, and the Warri refinery has no crude oil quota. In May, Nigeria's low-sulfur exports were all directed to Singapore, and exports in the first week of June were at a high level. [28] 10. Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil: Demand Lacks Specific Drivers, Marine Fuel Demand is Stable, and Power Generation Economics are Inferior to Natural Gas - Singapore's low-sulfur marine fuel sales in April were stable, with a marginal decline in market share. Fujairah's low-sulfur marine fuel sales in March increased. In Italy, the share of MGO in marine fuel has increased under the influence of ECA. [33] 11. Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil in the Chinese Market: China's Bonded Low-Sulfur Production Remains Stable at Around 1 Million Tons - China has issued a second batch of low-sulfur fuel oil export quotas, which are currently abundant. In April, domestic refineries' bonded low-sulfur marine fuel production increased. The production plan for May is expected to decline slightly compared to April. [36] Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking Fuel Oil Spot - Includes price trends of Brent crude oil, high-sulfur fuel oil, and low-sulfur fuel oil, as well as price spreads between different fuel oils and Brent crude oil. [39][40][41] High-Sulfur Fuel Oil Interregional and Intertemporal Spreads - Includes ARA Brent Crack spreads, Singapore high-sulfur M1-M2 spreads, and HSFO380 spot premiums. [46][47][51] Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil Interregional and Intervarietal Spreads - Includes spreads between different low-sulfur fuel oils and GO, as well as Singapore low-sulfur M1-M2 spreads and spot premiums. [52][53][56] Natural Gas-Fuel Oil Price Ratio - Compares the equal-heat-value prices of different fuels, including Singapore 380, Singapore 180, Singapore 0.5%, JKM, GO10ppm ARA, and TTF. [59][60] Interregional Freight Reference - Shows freight rates for different routes, such as Russia to Singapore, Rotterdam to Singapore, and Indonesia to Japan. [61][62] Singapore Bunkering Spreads - Explains the definitions of MOPS, Ex-wharf, and Delivered prices and shows the spreads between them for high-sulfur and low-sulfur fuel oils. [63][64][65] Inventory Structure - Provides inventory data for Singapore, ARA, Fujairah, the US, and Japan, including weekly, monthly, and yearly changes. [66] Northwest European Inventory Structure - Includes inventory data for ARA gasoline, diesel, and refined oil products. [69][70] US Gulf Inventory Structure - Includes inventory data for US gasoline, diesel, Cushing crude oil, and commercial crude oil. [71][72] Terminal Sales Structure - In April, Singapore's marine fuel sales decreased compared to the previous month but increased compared to the same period last year. High-sulfur marine fuel sales increased, while low-sulfur marine fuel sales decreased slightly. [74]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No clear industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market structure has strengthened slightly due to the expected tight supply in June. The supply of compliant low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to be limited in the next two weeks due to the lack of medium - sulfur blending components. The high - sulfur fuel oil market is supported by the increasing power generation demand as the Middle East and South Asia enter the peak air - conditioning electricity consumption season. - The spot prices of both high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils are at a premium to the futures prices. - The Singapore fuel oil inventory decreased by 610,000 barrels to 21.409 million barrels in the week ending June 4. - The prices of fuel oil are above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is flat. - Both high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil main contracts have short positions, and the short positions are decreasing. - Overnight, with the improvement of the macro - sentiment, the financial market strengthened. Fuel oil followed the upward trend of crude oil, and the fundamentals are slightly strong. It is expected to perform better than crude oil today. The FU2507 is expected to trade in the range of 2930 - 2990, and the LU2508 is expected to trade in the range of 3530 - 3590 [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the fuel oil market, including fundamentals, basis, inventory, price trends, and main contract positions. It also gives the expected trading ranges for the FU2507 and LU2508 contracts [3]. 3.2 Multi - and Short - term Concerns - **Likely Positives**: OPEC+ has extended additional production cuts (though implementation needs to be tracked), and China has issued import quotas. - **Likely Negatives**: The optimism on the demand side remains to be verified, and there is a possibility of relaxed sanctions on Russia. The market is driven by the co - existence of supply - side production cuts that need to be observed and neutral demand [4]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - **Supply**: The supply of low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to be tight in the short term due to the lack of blending components. The high - sulfur fuel oil market is supported by power generation demand. - **Basis**: The basis of Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil is 261 yuan/ton, and that of low - sulfur fuel oil is 201 yuan/ton, indicating a spot premium over futures. - **Inventory**: The Singapore fuel oil inventory decreased by 610,000 barrels to 21.409 million barrels in the week ending June 4 [3]. 3.4 Spread Data - The report does not provide detailed spread data analysis, but shows a chart of the high - and low - sulfur fuel oil futures spread over a long - term period [14]. 3.5 Inventory Data - Singapore fuel oil inventory data from March 26 to June 4 is provided, showing fluctuations in inventory levels. The inventory decreased by 610,000 barrels in the week ending June 4 [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - High-sulfur fuel oil: The near-month crack and monthly spread increased week-on-week, but the spot premium was suppressed below zero. Short-term supply is affected by the unclear Russia-Ukraine situation and refinery maintenance, while demand is boosted by seasonal power generation needs. [3] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: The spot premium fluctuated, with supply rising and downstream demand remaining weak. The supply of raw materials from South Sudan is gradually recovering, and exports from some refineries are increasing. [3] - Trading strategies: Adopt a wait-and-see approach for unilateral trading. Take profit on the FU 9-1 calendar spread long position and enter a short position on the LU 7-8 calendar spread at high levels. No options strategy is recommended. [3] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Comprehensive analysis**: High-sulfur fuel oil is affected by supply uncertainties and increasing demand. Low-sulfur fuel oil faces rising supply and weak demand. [3] - **Trading strategies**: Unilateral - wait and see; Arbitrage - FU 9-1 long take profit, LU 7-8 short entry; Options - none. [3] Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis - **Supply factors**: - Russia: Sanctions and refinery maintenance limit high-sulfur exports. May exports from the Black Sea port are expected to decline. [5] - Mexico: Olmeca refinery's production has increased, and overall exports are expected to remain stable. [8] - Middle East: Sanctions on Iran continue, and power generation demand in Saudi Arabia and Iran may reduce exports. [11] - **Demand factors**: - High-sulfur: Power generation demand in Egypt, South Asia, and the Middle East is increasing. [16] - Low-sulfur: Ship fuel demand is stable, but the implementation of the European ECA policy may reduce demand. [33] - **China's market**: The supply of low-sulfur fuel oil is stable, and the early issuance of quotas has little impact on the supply-demand balance. [36] Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking - **Price data**: Includes fuel oil spot prices, cross-regional and cross-period spreads, and natural gas-fuel oil price ratios. [38][44][53] - **Inventory data**: Inventories in Singapore, ARA, Fujeirah, the US, and Japan are presented, showing overall declines in recent weeks. [60] - **Terminal sales data**: Singapore's ship fuel sales in April showed a slight decline, with high-sulfur sales increasing and low-sulfur sales decreasing slightly. [68]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The near - end high - sulfur supply in the Asian market remains abundant, with high inventories of high - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore. However, there is still a medium - term supply gap due to geopolitical and sanctions affecting exports from Russia and the Middle East. High - sulfur seasonal power generation demand is starting to increase [7]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil spot prices are fluctuating. Supply is continuously rising while downstream demand is weak. The return of external low - sulfur raw material supply and increased production in some regions are contributing to the supply increase [7]. 3. Summary by Directory First Part: Related Data - **Prices and Changes**: On May 12, 2025, the FU main contract was at 2996, up 47 from May 9; the LU main contract was at 3518, up 46 from May 9. The LU - FU main contract spread was 522, down 1 from May 9 [4]. - **Positions and Changes**: FU main contract positions were 14.3 million hands, down 0.6 million hands from May 9; LU main contract positions were 6.4 million hands, down 0.2 million hands from May 9 [4]. - **Warehouse Receipts and Changes**: FU high - sulfur fuel oil warehouse receipts were 44,390 tons, down 6730 tons from May 9; LU low - sulfur fuel oil warehouse receipts were 26,270 tons, down 15,980 tons from May 9 [4][7]. Second Part: Market Analysis - **Important News**: The RFCC of Dangote Refinery has restarted, and BP Rotterdam Refinery plans to shut down one of its two CDU units for maintenance in May. Intermittent supply may increase price fluctuations, and the success of Dangote's production increase will affect the EBOB spread in Q3 2025 [6]. - **Market Judgment**: High - sulfur fuel oil: Supply is abundant in the short - term but has a medium - term gap. Demand for power generation is increasing. Low - sulfur fuel oil: Supply is rising while demand is weak, and the return of external supply and increased production in some regions are factors [7]. Third Part: Related Attachments - The report includes six graphs showing data such as Singapore high - sulfur and low - sulfur spot premiums, high - and low - sulfur price differentials, and fuel oil cracking spreads. The data sources are Galaxy Futures and Reuters [9].

大越期货：预计燃料油价格继续随势震荡 由于本周下游船燃需求相对稳定，亚洲低硫燃料油市场结构维持在当前水平附近，而贸易商预计5月东 西方套利到货量减少将在短期内支撑市场基本面。贸易商表示，尽管新加坡整体库存水平较高，但符合 规格的现货供应有限，预计短期内市场将延续温和上行趋势。高硫方面，高硫燃料油市场目前受益于中 东夏季发电需求改善预期的支撑，不过贸易商指出，下游船燃需求疲软及原料采购需求低迷仍将持续施 压高硫市场。新加坡现货市场仍有大量高硫燃料油船货待售，且来自中东货源将在4月底陆续抵达，不 过5月到港量或将减少。原油价格或呈现震荡的态势，预计燃料油价格继续随势震荡。操作上：高硫短 线2900-31050区间操作，低硫短线3350-3550区间操作。 西南期货：燃料油走势料震荡偏强 第二季度末亚洲高硫燃料油市场通常会进入季节性需求旺季，因为中东地区的发电需求达到高峰。超低 硫燃料油市场稳中坚挺，因为供应和需求基本面趋于平衡，市场商家关注来自亚洲外的供应。亚洲地区 的低硫燃料油供应有限，因为炼油厂检修以及炼油利润不佳产量减少。韩国的部分炼油商正考虑购买船 用燃料油。中石油公司装运了13万吨4月初从巴西装船的含硫 ...