原油端反弹遇阻后再度转跌，反映油市供过于求的预期并未逆转，成本端对燃料油单边价格压制将持续存在，FU、 LU弱势震荡运行。 就燃料油自身基本面而言，当前整体市场矛盾有限。其中，高硫燃料油市场结构处于调整阶段，裂解价差已从高 位大幅回落。目前来看，随着中东供应增量释放，市场需要炼厂端需求增加来形成对冲，在比价下跌后经济性开 始逐步显现，将形成一定下方支撑。不过目前来看，高硫燃料油供应较为充裕，浮仓量偏高，过剩有待消化。 低硫燃料油方面，市场整体供应并不短缺，但局部存在减量。其中，由于阿祖尔炼厂装置检修时间延长，科威特 11月至今跟踪到的船运发货量依旧为零。参考IIR消息，阿祖尔的两套CDU装置预计将在本月中旬和下旬重启。此 外，Dangote炼厂RFCC装置已经从12月8日开始进入检修（计划内检修，预计持续到1月26日），检修期间尼日利亚 低硫燃料油出口可能会再度回升。参考船期数据，12月截止目前为止尼日利亚低硫油发货量为零。往前看，高低 硫价差短期走势震荡偏强，但预计上方空间有限。 策略 燃料油日报 | 2025-12-11 科威特低硫油出口仍未恢复 市场分析 上期所燃料油期货主力合约日盘收跌0.65%，报2 ...

燃料油日报 | 2025-12-10 Dangote炼厂RFCC装置已再度进入检修 市场分析 上期所燃料油期货主力合约夜盘收跌1.35%，报2410元/吨；INE低硫燃料油期货主力合约夜盘收跌0.56%，报2997 元/吨。 原油端反弹后再度回调，反映油市供过于求的预期并未逆转，中期成本端对燃料油单边价格压制将持续存在。 就燃料油自身基本面而言，当前整体市场矛盾有限。其中，高硫燃料油市场结构处于调整阶段，裂解价差已从高 位大幅回落。目前来看，随着中东供应增量释放，市场需要炼厂端需求增加来形成对冲，在比价下跌后经济性已 开始显现，将形成一定下方支撑。 低硫燃料油方面，市场整体供应依然相对充裕，但局部存在减量。由于阿祖尔炼厂装置检修时间延长，科威特11 月至今跟踪到的船运发货量依旧为零。此外，Dangote炼厂RFCC装置已经从12月8日开始进入检修（计划内检修， 预计持续到1月26日），检修期间尼日利亚低硫燃料油出口可能会再度回升。高低硫价差短期走势震荡偏强，但预 计上方空间有限。 策略 高硫方面：短期中性，中性偏空 低硫方面：短期中性，中性偏空 跨品种：无 跨期：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 宏观风险、关税风 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - High - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term neutral, leaning towards bearish [2] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term neutral, leaning towards bearish [2] - Cross - variety: None [2] - Cross - term: None [2] - Spot - futures: None [2] - Options: None [2] 2. Core View of the Report - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed down 1.3% at 2,437 yuan/ton during the day session, and the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 0.59% at 3,028 yuan/ton at night [1] - Although crude oil prices have rebounded slightly from the low level recently, the medium - term expectation of oversupply in the oil market is gradually being realized. If the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement is successfully reached, the geopolitical premium may further subside, suppressing the unilateral price of fuel oil from the cost side [1] - In terms of the fundamentals of fuel oil itself, the overall market contradictions are limited. The high - sulfur fuel oil market structure is in the adjustment stage, and the crack spread continues to decline. The shipment of high - sulfur fuel oil from the Middle East showed signs of recovery in early December, possibly driven by the decrease in refinery maintenance and power plant demand. Currently, the high - sulfur fuel oil crack spread needs incremental demand from refineries to support it [1] - For low - sulfur fuel oil, the overall market supply is still relatively abundant, but there are local reductions. Due to the extended maintenance of the Azur refinery, the shipping volume of Kuwait tracked from November to now remains zero. There is still short - term support for the low - sulfur fuel oil market, and the high - low sulfur spread is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, but the upside space is limited [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Analysis - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed down 1.3% at 2,437 yuan/ton during the day session, and the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 0.59% at 3,028 yuan/ton at night [1] - Crude oil prices rebounded slightly from the low level, but the medium - term oversupply expectation in the oil market is being realized. If the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement is reached, the geopolitical premium may subside, suppressing fuel oil prices from the cost side [1] - High - sulfur fuel oil market structure is in adjustment, crack spread is declining. Middle East high - sulfur fuel oil shipments recovered in early December, possibly due to less refinery maintenance and power plant demand. The crack spread needs refinery demand support [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil supply is generally abundant with local reductions. Due to refinery maintenance, Kuwait's shipping volume is zero. There is short - term support, and the high - low sulfur spread may fluctuate strongly with limited upside [1] Strategy - High - sulfur: Short - term neutral, leaning towards bearish [2] - Low - sulfur: Short - term neutral, leaning towards bearish [2] - Cross - variety: None [2] - Cross - term: None [2] - Spot - futures: None [2] - Options: None [2]

2026 年期货市场展望 虽然高硫油市场存在边际转弱的预期，但中期而言燃料油整体供需格局并未逆转：高硫燃料油需求端保持坚挺，来自国内地方炼厂的采购 成为常态。在重油结构性偏紧、炼厂二次装置升级的背景下，供应将持续受到制约；与此同时，低硫燃料油市场仍存在需求增量有限、剩 余产能较为充裕的矛盾，市场驱动相对有限...... 供需结构性矛盾仍存，高低硫市场或延续分化 Energy 能源板块研究 Research 华泰期货研究 本期分析研究员 潘翔 从业资格号：F3023104 投资咨询号：Z0013188 康远宁 从业资格号：F3049404 投资咨询号：Z0015842 2025 年 11 月 30 日 华泰期货研究院能源板块研究 期货研究报告 | 燃料油年报 2025-11-30 供需结构性矛盾仍存，高低硫市场或延续分化 策略摘要 高硫燃料油结构性支撑因素仍存，裂解价差回调到位后可以关注逢低多机会。 核心观点 ■ 市场分析 基于对明年油价中枢下移的预期，FU、LU 单边价格将持续受到牵制。 当前高低硫燃料油自身市场矛盾相对有限，整体供应较为充裕。其中，低硫 燃料油由于阿祖尔与 Dangote 炼厂装置变动的缘故 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - High-sulfur fuel oil: Cautiously bearish, with short-term focus on observation [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Cautiously bearish, with short-term focus on observation [2] - Cross-variety: None [2] - Cross-period: None [2] - Spot-futures: None [2] - Options: None [2] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed down 1.2% at 2,467 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 0.2% at 3,023 yuan/ton. The crude oil price continued its weak and volatile trend, and the medium-term expectation of oversupply in the oil market was gradually being realized. If the Russia-Ukraine peace agreement is successfully reached, the geopolitical sentiment premium may further subside, which will have a certain suppressing effect on the unilateral price of fuel oil [1]. - In terms of the fundamentals of fuel oil itself, the current overall market contradictions are limited. The market structure of low-sulfur fuel oil weakened again after a slight repair, with the crack spread and monthly spread declining. The market supply is still relatively abundant, and the Azur refinery is expected to resume production soon. However, due to the relatively low valuation of low-sulfur oil compared to gasoline and diesel, the refinery's production willingness is limited, and it is expected that there will still be support at the lower end of the market [1]. - For high-sulfur fuel oil, the crack spread has recently weakened in a volatile manner. The lower support for the valuation mainly comes from the elastic demand at the refinery end. The development of the Russia-Ukraine situation will also affect Russia's fuel oil production and trade flows. According to the latest news, Ukraine has原则上 agreed to the peace agreement, and the US has reduced the 28 points of the plan to 22 points. In the future, attention should be paid to whether the agreement is reached and the changes in the sanctions policies of Europe and the US against Russia. At present, as some refineries have completed their maintenance, Russia's recent fuel oil exports show signs of recovery. According to shipping data, Russia's high-sulfur fuel oil shipments in November are expected to be 2.52 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 570,000 tons compared to October [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed down 1.2% at 2,467 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 0.2% at 3,023 yuan/ton. The crude oil price continued its weak and volatile trend, and the medium-term expectation of oversupply in the oil market was gradually being realized. If the Russia-Ukraine peace agreement is successfully reached, the geopolitical sentiment premium may further subside, which will have a certain suppressing effect on the unilateral price of fuel oil [1]. - In terms of the fundamentals of fuel oil itself, the current overall market contradictions are limited. The market structure of low-sulfur fuel oil weakened again after a slight repair, with the crack spread and monthly spread declining. The market supply is still relatively abundant, and the Azur refinery is expected to resume production soon. However, due to the relatively low valuation of low-sulfur oil compared to gasoline and diesel, the refinery's production willingness is limited, and it is expected that there will still be support at the lower end of the market [1]. - For high-sulfur fuel oil, the crack spread has recently weakened in a volatile manner. The lower support for the valuation mainly comes from the elastic demand at the refinery end. The development of the Russia-Ukraine situation will also affect Russia's fuel oil production and trade flows. According to the latest news, Ukraine has原则上 agreed to the peace agreement, and the US has reduced the 28 points of the plan to 22 points. In the future, attention should be paid to whether the agreement is reached and the changes in the sanctions policies of Europe and the US against Russia. At present, as some refineries have completed their maintenance, Russia's recent fuel oil exports show signs of recovery. According to shipping data, Russia's high-sulfur fuel oil shipments in November are expected to be 2.52 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 570,000 tons compared to October [1]. Strategy - High-sulfur: Cautiously bearish, with short-term focus on observation [2] - Low-sulfur: Cautiously bearish, with short-term focus on observation [2] - Cross-variety: None [2] - Cross-period: None [2] - Spot-futures: None [2] - Options: None [2]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The fuel oil market is driven by limited factors and is operating in a weak and volatile manner. Crude oil prices continue to oscillate weakly, and the expectation of oversupply in the medium - term oil market is gradually being realized. If the Russia - Ukraine situation eases, the geopolitical premium may further subside, putting downward pressure on the unilateral price of fuel oil. The fundamentals of the fuel oil market itself have limited drivers. The market structure of low - sulfur fuel oil has encountered resistance after a slight repair, and the tightening of local supply is only temporary. For high - sulfur fuel oil, there are still supporting factors, and the lower support for valuation comes from the flexible demand of refineries. In general, the short - term market contradictions of high - and low - sulfur fuel oil are limited, and they may fluctuate following the crude oil market. The price spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil does not have a strong trend for the time being [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The night - session closing price of the main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures dropped 0.28% to 2,493 yuan/ton, and that of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures dropped 0.69% to 3,034 yuan/ton [1]. - Crude oil prices are in a weak and volatile state. The expectation of oversupply in the medium - term oil market is being realized. If the Russia - Ukraine situation eases, the geopolitical premium may further decline, which suppresses the unilateral price of fuel oil [1]. - The fundamentals of the fuel oil market have limited drivers. The market structure of low - sulfur fuel oil has encountered resistance after a slight repair, and the tightening of local supply is only temporary. The supply of Dangote refinery has not completely stopped, the partial units of Azur refinery that were under maintenance due to faults are expected to restart around November 29, and the shipment of Sudanese low - sulfur crude oil is also recovering [1]. - For high - sulfur fuel oil, there are still supporting factors, and the lower support for valuation comes from the flexible demand of refineries [1]. Strategy - High - sulfur fuel oil: Neutral in the short term and bearish in the medium term [2]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Neutral in the short term and bearish in the medium term [2]. - Cross - variety: No strategy [2]. - Cross - period: No strategy [2]. - Spot - futures: No strategy [2]. - Options: No strategy [2].

Core Viewpoint - Fuel oil futures experienced a sharp decline, with the main contract dropping to a low of 2482.00 yuan, closing at 2497.00 yuan, down 1.27% [1][2]. Group 1: Market Analysis - Dayue Futures predicts that the price gap between high and low sulfur fuel oil will continue to narrow due to a slight recovery in demand for ship fuel, which has led to a rise in spot prices for marine fuel [2]. - Southwest Futures suggests a temporary wait-and-see approach for the main fuel oil contract, noting that the previous trading day saw high sulfur fuel oil open high but close lower, remaining below the moving average [2]. - The high sulfur fuel oil market is showing strength, with the 380-cst high sulfur fuel oil trading momentum remaining robust, while the ultra-low sulfur fuel oil market remains stable with slight premium pricing [2]. Group 2: Price Dynamics - The Hi-5 price difference, which measures the premium of ultra-low sulfur fuel oil over 380-cst high sulfur fuel oil, has decreased to around 80 USD per ton, indicating a slight recovery in high sulfur fuel oil [2]. - The cracking spread for ultra-low sulfur fuel oil has dropped to approximately 5.40 USD per barrel, while the cracking spread for 380-cst high sulfur fuel oil has risen to nearly a 7 USD discount amid fluctuating trading [2]. - Reports indicate that four transactions of 380-cst high sulfur fuel oil and one transaction of ultra-low sulfur fuel oil were completed in the Singapore trading window, with no transactions for 180-cst high sulfur fuel oil [2].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - High-sulfur fuel oil: Neutral in the short term, bearish in the medium term [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Neutral in the short term, bearish in the medium term [2] Group 2: Core Views - The market structure of low-sulfur fuel oil has marginally improved, but the upward driving force remains limited [1] - Crude oil prices continue in a weak and volatile state, and the medium-term expectation of oversupply in the oil market is gradually being realized, suppressing the unilateral price of fuel oil [1] - The fundamental situation of high-sulfur and low-sulfur fuel oils is converging. The previously strong high-sulfur fuel oil fundamentals have marginally loosened, but there are still supporting factors below [1] - Recently, the supply of low-sulfur fuel oil in Nigeria and Kuwait has tightened marginally, and the strength of overseas gasoline and diesel has also boosted the valuation of low-sulfur fuel oil. However, in the medium term, it faces the contradiction of being substituted in marine fuel demand and has abundant surplus capacity, so it does not have the conditions to strengthen continuously [1] Group 3: Strategy - For high-sulfur fuel oil: Short-term neutral, medium-term bearish [2] - For low-sulfur fuel oil: Short-term neutral, medium-term bearish [2] - For cross-variety: Positions with long LU-FU spreads can be appropriately taken profit [2] - For cross-period: No strategy provided [2] - For spot-futures: No strategy provided [2] - For options: No strategy provided [2] Group 4: Market Data - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed down 1.01% at 2,560 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 0.21% at 3,266 yuan/ton [1] - Multiple charts show prices, spreads, and trading volume data for Singapore and Chinese fuel oil futures and spot markets [3]

燃料油早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/11/18 | 燃 料 油 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 鹿特丹3.5% HSF | 鹿特丹0.5% VLS | 鹿特丹HSFO-Br | 鹿特丹10ppm G | 鹿特丹VLSFO-G | LGO-Brent M1 | 鹿特丹VLSFO-H | | | O掉期 M1 | FO掉期 M1 | ent M1 | asoil掉期 M1 | O M1 | | SFO M1 | | 2025/11/11 | 381.44 | 422.72 | -4.85 | 715.93 | -293.21 | 32.12 | 41.28 | | 2025/11/12 | 365.00 | 405.19 | -5.03 | 692.85 | -287.66 | 31.72 | 40.19 | | 2025/11/13 | 367.09 | 406.14 | -4.95 | 687.85 | -281.71 | 30.65 | 39.05 | | 2025/11/14 | 371. ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No clear industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The recent weak and volatile operation of crude oil prices has put some pressure on the FU and LU futures markets. High - sulfur fuel oil is in an adjustment phase, with a decline in crack spreads, monthly spreads, and spot premiums, but there are still structural support factors. Low - sulfur fuel oil supply pressure has marginally eased due to reduced production from Azul and Dangote refineries, and the market structure has slightly repaired [2]. - The Azul refinery's planned restart of its device on November 11 has been postponed to around December 9, and the observed Kuwaiti low - sulfur fuel oil shipments remain at zero, which provides some short - term support to the market [2]. Strategy Summary High - sulfur Fuel Oil - Short - term: Neutral; Medium - term: Bearish [3] Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - Short - term: Neutral; Medium - term: Bearish [3] Cross -品种 Strategy - Go long on the LU2601 - FU2601 spread on dips [3] Cross - term Strategy - None [3] Spot - futures Strategy - None [3] Options Strategy - None [3] Market Analysis - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed down 0.45% at 2,671 yuan/ton during the day session, and the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 0.08% at 3,262 yuan/ton [1]