1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the fuel oil futures showed a downward trend after breaking through support levels, with overall trading sentiment being bearish. Affected by the significant decline in the international crude oil market and the weakening of the fundamental supply - demand structure, the price center of fuel oil futures has clearly shifted downward. The main trading logic this week revolved around increased global supply, slowing demand growth, and weakened cost support. Meanwhile, macro - risk events such as the "shutdown" of the US federal government further intensified market concerns [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract Market:** The main fuel oil contract FU2601 closed at 2,781 yuan/ton this week, down 86 yuan/ton or 3% from the settlement price of the previous trading week. The highest price this week was 2,835 yuan/ton, the lowest was 2,776 yuan/ton, the trading volume was 775,015 lots, and the open interest was 230,600 lots, a decrease of 4,649 lots [3] - **Variety Price:** The fuel oil futures contract prices presented a backwardation market pattern with near - term prices higher than long - term prices [7] 3.2 Spot Market - **Basis Data:** The fuel oil spot market performed poorly this week. The current basis level is in the lower range of recent months, indicating that the spot market faces greater price pressure compared to the futures market. The low basis level reflects that the spot market is more resistant to declines than the futures market and also shows the futures market's pessimistic expectation of the long - term fundamentals [9] - **Registered Warehouse Receipts:** This week, the changes in the fuel oil warehouse receipt data on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were limited, remaining generally stable. The low level of warehouse receipts helps reduce the physical delivery pressure on the futures market and provides some support for the prices of near - month contracts [11][12] 3.3 Influencing Factors - **Industry Information:** The benchmark price of fuel oil is 5,363 yuan/ton, down nearly 2.1% compared to the beginning of this month. The benchmark price of fuel oil 380CST is 433 US dollars/ton, down 3.8% compared to the beginning of this month [13] 3.4 Market Outlook - In the short term, the fuel oil market is expected to be mainly driven by geopolitical factors and crude oil costs. In terms of international supply, OPEC+ plans to expand the production increase scale in November, and the resumption of crude oil exports in the Kurdish region of Iraq, combined with the increased inflow of goods after the end of the summer electricity peak in the Middle East, clearly indicate an abundant supply pattern in the Asian fuel oil market. In the future, close attention should be paid to factors such as US tariff policies, the Fed's monetary policy (interest rate cut expectations), geopolitical situations, and crude oil price fluctuations that may affect the fuel oil market [14]

Core Viewpoint - The fuel oil futures market is experiencing a weak performance, with the main contract declining by 1.69% to 2668.00 yuan/ton as of the report date [1]. Market Data Summary - As of October 14, the Shanghai Futures Exchange reported low-sulfur fuel oil warehouse futures receipts at 13,080 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day; total fuel oil futures receipts were 45,800 tons, also unchanged [2]. - In September, the total export volume of refined oil through Baltic ports decreased by 15.4% month-on-month to 4.36 million tons. Fuel oil exports through the Black Sea and Azov Sea ports fell by 23.2% month-on-month to 2.52 million tons [2]. - On October 14, the self-lifting low-sulfur price for fuel oil 180cst in Shanghai was quoted at 5,350 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The self-lifting low-sulfur price for fuel oil 120cst was quoted at 5,450 yuan/ton, also up by 150 yuan/ton [2]. Institutional Perspectives - According to Everbright Futures, the inflow of components used for blending low-sulfur fuel oil in the Singapore market continues to increase. Additionally, the autumn refinery maintenance in Asia has not significantly tightened local supply, resulting in ample supply of low-sulfur fuel oil in Singapore. The high-sulfur fuel oil market structure remains firm due to stable downstream marine fuel activities and refining demand. In the short term, the fundamentals for high-sulfur fuel oil may remain slightly stronger than those for low-sulfur fuel oil. However, the pressure from new tariffs imposed by Trump is likely to keep both high and low-sulfur fuel oil prices in a weak oscillation [3]. - Southwest Futures noted that the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict continues to support fuel oil prices, while the easing of geopolitical risks in the Middle East has led to a decline in crude oil prices, subsequently dragging down fuel oil prices. The strategy suggested is to widen the price difference between high and low-sulfur fuel oil in the main contract [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, international crude oil prices first rose and then fell. Fuel oil prices also weakened as geopolitical factors subsided. High - sulfur fuel oil closed at 2,733 yuan/ton, down 7.23% for the week, and low - sulfur fuel oil closed at 3,242 yuan/ton, down 4.48% for the week [5]. - The east - west arbitrage window for 0.5% sulfur low - sulfur fuel oil has been mostly closed in recent weeks, but the inflow of component oils for blending low - sulfur fuel oil has continued to increase. Asian refinery maintenance in autumn has not significantly tightened local supply, and the Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil market has sufficient supply. Stable supply and weak downstream marine fuel demand will keep Singapore's inventory at a high level in the short term, and the market will be weak [5]. - The Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market structure is firm, partly due to relatively stable downstream marine fuel activities. Although the current high - sulfur fuel oil marine fuel demand remains stable, as the peak summer electricity demand season in the Middle East fades, the inflow of goods from the region will increase, keeping the Asian market well - supplied in the next few weeks. With the threat of a new round of tariff war from the US against China and no further escalation of sanctions on Russian energy exports, fuel oil will run weakly overall. For operation, high - sulfur fuel oil should be traded in the 2,600 - 2,800 yuan/ton range, and low - sulfur fuel oil in the 3,100 - 3,300 yuan/ton range [5]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Week - long View - High - sulfur fuel oil closed at 2,733 yuan/ton, down 7.23% for the week, and low - sulfur fuel oil closed at 3,242 yuan/ton, down 4.48% for the week. The low - sulfur fuel oil market in Singapore is well - supplied and weak, while the high - sulfur fuel oil market in Asia is firm but may face increased supply in the future. Overall, fuel oil runs weakly, and specific operating ranges are given [5]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures Prices**: The FU main contract's previous value was 2,893 yuan/ton, the current value is 2,808 yuan/ton, down 86 yuan or 2.96%. The LU main contract's previous value was 3,442 yuan/ton, the current value is 3,331 yuan/ton, down 112 yuan or 3.24% [6]. - **Spot Prices**: For various fuel oil products in different regions such as Zhoushan and Singapore, prices have all declined. For example, Zhoushan high - sulfur fuel oil decreased from 484.00 to 473.00, down 11.00 or 2.27% [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - **Consumption Data**: There are charts showing the consumption of fuel oil in Singapore, China, and the coking profit margin of fuel oil in Shandong from 2021 - 2025, but specific numerical analysis is not provided in the text [8][9][10]. 3.4 Inventory Data - Singapore's fuel oil inventory has fluctuated. For example, on October 8, it was 2,061.9 million barrels, a decrease of 164 million barrels compared to the previous period [11]. 3.5 Spread Data - There is a chart showing the high - low sulfur futures spread, but specific numerical analysis is not provided in the text [15].

Group 1: Market Analysis - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed up 0.17% at 2,919 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 0.29% at 3,480 yuan/ton [1] - Crude oil prices have rebounded recently, but the expectation of a looser medium-term balance sheet is suppressing the market. Considering the unclear geopolitical situation, oil prices may fluctuate significantly during the National Day holiday [1] - In terms of the fundamentals of fuel oil itself, the market structure of high-sulfur fuel oil has strengthened marginally, and the reduction in the number of registered futures warehouse receipts has also provided additional support for the FU futures structure. However, based on the current valuation level and supply-demand situation, the upward driving force of the high-sulfur fuel oil market is still limited and requires new variables [1] - For low-sulfur fuel oil, the recent shutdown of RFCC units at the Dangote and Pengerang refineries has led to an increase in local low-sulfur fuel oil supply, suppressing the crack spread and monthly spread structure. However, domestic production remains at a medium to low level, and the strong premium of gasoline and diesel has diverted low-sulfur oil components. Overall, the supply pressure is relatively limited. In the medium term, the trend of substitution of low-sulfur marine fuel demand share has not reversed, and there is still significant resistance above the market [1] Group 2: Strategy - High-sulfur fuel oil: Neutral in the short term and bearish in the medium term [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Neutral in the short term and bearish in the medium term [2] - Cross-variety: No strategy [2] - Cross-period: Go long on the FU2511 - 2512 spread on dips [2] - Spot-futures: No strategy [2] - Options: No strategy [2] Group 3: Figures - Figures include Singapore high-sulfur 380 fuel oil spot price, Singapore low-sulfur fuel oil spot price, Singapore high-sulfur fuel oil swap near-month contract, Singapore low-sulfur fuel oil swap near-month contract, Singapore high-sulfur fuel oil near-month spread, Singapore low-sulfur fuel oil near-month spread, fuel oil FU futures main contract closing price, fuel oil FU futures index closing price, fuel oil FU futures near-month contract closing price, fuel oil FU near-month contract monthly spread, fuel oil FU futures main contract trading volume and open interest, fuel oil FU futures total trading volume and open interest, low-sulfur fuel oil LU futures main contract closing price, low-sulfur fuel oil LU futures index closing price, low-sulfur fuel oil LU futures near-month contract price, low-sulfur fuel oil LU futures near-month spread, low-sulfur fuel oil LU futures main contract trading volume and open interest, and low-sulfur fuel oil LU futures total trading volume and open interest [3]

Group 1: Report Title and Overview - The report is titled "Fuel Oil: High-level Volatility, Short-term Adjustment; Low-sulfur Fuel Oil: Sharp Upturn, Strong Rebound in the Spread between High and Low-sulfur Spot Prices in the External Market" and was published on September 26, 2025 [1] Group 2: Core View - Fuel oil is in high-level volatility and has entered a short-term adjustment, while low-sulfur fuel oil has seen a sharp upward movement and a strong rebound in the spread between high and low-sulfur spot prices in the external market [1] Group 3: Fundamental Tracking Futures Prices - FU2510 closed at 2,969 yuan/ton, up 1.64% from the previous day, with a settlement price of 2,933 yuan/ton, up 1.88% [1] - FU2511 closed at 2,970 yuan/ton, up 1.88% from the previous day, with a settlement price of 2,948 yuan/ton, up 2.08% [1] - LU2510 closed at 3,366 yuan/ton, down 0.06% from the previous day, with a settlement price of 3,366 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] - LU2511 closed at 3,450 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a settlement price of 3,435 yuan/ton, up 1.12% [1] Trading Volume and Open Interest - The trading volume of FU2510 was 216, a decrease of 727 from the previous day, and the open interest was 4,306, a decrease of 127 [1] - The trading volume of FU2511 was 14,583, a decrease of 10,089 from the previous day, and the open interest was 21,802, a decrease of 1,476 [1] - The trading volume of LU2510 was 0, a decrease of 35 from the previous day, and the open interest was 1,295, an increase [1] - The trading volume of LU2511 was 71,885, a decrease of 7,787 from the previous day, and the open interest was 44,735, a decrease of 5,993 [1] Warehouse Receipts - The total warehouse receipts of fuel oil in the market were 80,510, unchanged from the previous day, and the warehouse receipts of low-sulfur fuel oil were 10,020, unchanged [1] Spot Prices - In Singapore FOB, high-sulfur (3.5%S) was 407.3 US dollars/ton, up 0.13% from the previous day, and low-sulfur (0.5%S) was 474.0 US dollars/ton, up 1.70% [1] - In Singapore Bunker, high-sulfur was 418.0 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and low-sulfur was 486.0 US dollars/ton, up 1.25% [1] Price Spreads - The spread between FU10 and FU11 was -1 yuan/ton, and the settlement spread was -15 yuan/ton, a difference of -14 yuan/ton [1] - The spread between LU10 and LU11 was -84 yuan/ton, and the settlement spread was -69 yuan/ton, a difference of 15 yuan/ton [1] - The spread between LU10 and FU10 was 397 yuan/ton, and the settlement spread was 433 yuan/ton, a difference of 36 yuan/ton [1] Group 4: Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of fuel oil is 0, and the trend intensity of low-sulfur fuel oil is 0, indicating a neutral view [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The crude oil price is in a range - bound oscillation. The refinery autumn maintenance peak leads to a seasonal decline in demand. With OPEC's continuous production increase, the crude oil balance sheet is expected to gradually loosen. However, due to geopolitical uncertainties and low actual inventories, the short - term oil price direction is unclear, providing limited guidance for fuel oil prices [1]. - High - sulfur fuel oil is in the market re - balancing stage. The near - end supply is relatively abundant, and the Singapore inventory is at a high level, but the pressure has eased. Egyptian procurement demand continues, with an expected import of 690,000 tons in September, a 260,000 - ton increase from August and basically the same as last year. The power generation consumption peak is ending, providing short - term support but expected to decline in October [1]. - For low - sulfur fuel oil, the supply pressure has increased due to the increased exports from Nigeria's Dangote refinery after its RFCC unit shutdown. However, the West - region arbitrage cargo volume has declined, and domestic production remains low, with no serious oversupply expected. In the medium - term, it faces the contradiction of demand share substitution and excess capacity, with support at the lower valuation but large upward resistance [2]. - The short - term strategy for both high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil is neutral, and the medium - term strategy is downward. There are no strategies for cross - variety, cross - period, spot - futures, or options [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Analysis - **Fuel Oil Futures Prices**: The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed up 0.29% at 2,795 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 1.25% at 3,395 yuan/ton [1]. - **Crude Oil Situation**: Crude oil prices are in a range - bound oscillation. The refinery autumn maintenance peak causes a seasonal demand decline. With OPEC's continuous production increase, the crude oil balance sheet is expected to loosen. Geopolitical uncertainties and low inventories make the short - term oil price direction unclear [1]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It is in the market re - balancing stage. Near - end supply is abundant, and Singapore inventory is high but the pressure has eased. Middle - East shipments decreased significantly in September, and Egyptian procurement continues. The power generation consumption peak is ending [1]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Supply pressure has increased due to increased exports from Nigeria's Dangote refinery. West - region arbitrage cargo volume has declined, and domestic production remains low. There is no serious oversupply expected, and it has a mild Back structure. In the medium - term, it faces demand substitution and excess capacity issues [2]. Strategy - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Short - term neutral, medium - term downward [3]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Short - term neutral, medium - term downward [3]. - **Other Strategies**: No strategies for cross - variety, cross - period, spot - futures, or options [3].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - High-sulfur fuel oil: Short-term neutral, medium-term downward [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Short-term neutral, medium-term downward [2] - Cross-variety: None [2] - Cross-period: None [2] - Spot-futures: None [2] - Options: None [2] 2. Core View - The main contract of Shanghai Futures Exchange fuel oil futures closed up 1.09% at 2,786 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 0.48% at 3,383 yuan/ton [1] - Crude oil prices are oscillating in a range. In the short term, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East and Russia-Ukraine is unclear, and in the medium term, there is an expectation of oversupply, providing limited guidance on fuel oil price direction [1] - High-sulfur fuel oil is in the stage of market rebalancing, with recent spreads stabilizing and slightly rebounding. There are both long and short factors, with relatively ample near-term supply and high inventory in Singapore. As summer ends, fuel oil demand in the Middle East is expected to decline. Egypt's high-sulfur fuel oil imports in September are currently estimated at 280,000 tons, a decrease of 150,000 tons from the previous month [1] - For low-sulfur fuel oil, the current market contradictions are limited. Domestic production has increased but remains at a low level. The external market structure has made small adjustments, and downstream marine fuel demand is average. In the medium term, low-sulfur fuel oil still faces the contradictions of demand share substitution and surplus capacity, so while there is some support below the valuation, the upward resistance is also large [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Fuel oil futures prices: The main contract of Shanghai Futures Exchange fuel oil futures closed up 1.09% at 2,786 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 0.48% at 3,383 yuan/ton [1] - Crude oil price situation: Crude oil prices are oscillating in a range. In the short term, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East and Russia-Ukraine is unclear, and in the medium term, there is an expectation of oversupply, providing limited guidance on fuel oil price direction [1] - High-sulfur fuel oil fundamentals: In the stage of market rebalancing, recent spreads have stabilized and slightly rebounded. There are both long and short factors, with relatively ample near-term supply and high inventory in Singapore. As summer ends, fuel oil demand in the Middle East is expected to decline. Egypt's high-sulfur fuel oil imports in September are currently estimated at 280,000 tons, a decrease of 150,000 tons from the previous month [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil fundamentals: Current market contradictions are limited. Domestic production has increased but remains at a low level. The external market structure has made small adjustments, and downstream marine fuel demand is average. In the medium term, it still faces the contradictions of demand share substitution and surplus capacity, so while there is some support below the valuation, the upward resistance is also large [1] Strategy - High-sulfur fuel oil: Short-term neutral, medium-term downward [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Short-term neutral, medium-term downward [2] - Cross-variety: None [2] - Cross-period: None [2] - Spot-futures: None [2] - Options: None [2] Figures - Multiple figures show the prices, spreads, contract prices, and trading volumes of Singapore high-sulfur and low-sulfur fuel oils, as well as Shanghai fuel oil and low-sulfur fuel oil futures, with units including US dollars/ton and yuan/ton, and hands [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - High-sulfur fuel oil: Volatility [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Volatility [2] - Cross-variety: None [2] - Cross-period: None [2] - Spot-futures: None [2] - Options: None [2] Core Viewpoints - The geopolitical and macro situation remains unclear, with limited progress in Russia-Ukraine peace talks. The crude oil market faces many uncertainties in the short term and is in a range-bound oscillation, and the FU and LU futures also show narrow fluctuations [1]. - High-sulfur fuel oil is in a stage of market adjustment and rebalancing, with a mix of long and short factors. The increasing exports of Middle Eastern high-sulfur fuel oil due to OPEC's production increase pose potential pressure on the market [1]. - The current market pressure on low-sulfur fuel oil is limited. Although the market structure is relatively stable in the short term, there is no strong driving force. In the medium term, it still faces the contradiction of demand share substitution and surplus production capacity, with upward resistance despite some support at the lower end of the valuation [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed down 0.04% at 2,840 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 0.85% at 3,512 yuan/ton [1]. - The shipments of Middle Eastern high-sulfur fuel oil reached 3.41 million tons and 3.38 million tons in July and August respectively, much higher than the 2.08 million tons in January. There may be more room for export growth after the peak power demand season [1]. - The domestic production of low-sulfur fuel oil remains low, and the arbitrage supply from the West has tightened again. The export of Brazilian low-sulfur fuel oil has declined, and the external market maintains a Back structure [1]. Strategy - High-sulfur fuel oil: Expected to be volatile [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Expected to be volatile [2] - No specific strategies for cross-variety, cross-period, spot-futures, and options [2]

燃料油日报 | 2025-09-02 市场多空因素交织，短期方向仍不明朗 市场分析 上期所燃料油期货主力合约日盘收涨0.25%，报2832元/吨；INE低硫燃料油期货主力合约日盘收跌0.49%，报3474 元/吨。 当前地缘与宏观形势仍不明朗，尤其俄乌和谈进展有限，原油端短期面临诸多不确定性，目前处于区间震荡走势， 并无明朗方向，FU、LU盘面也呈现窄幅波动状态。 就燃料油自身基本面而言，高硫燃料油处于市场调整与再平衡的阶段，目前市场多空因素交织。具体来看，一方 面，中东高硫燃料油出口持续增加，发电需求旺季结束后可能还有进一步提升的空间；另一方面，由于美国制裁 加码及乌克兰无人机的袭击，伊朗与俄罗斯供应受限。高硫燃料油短期市场矛盾有限，未来如果发电旺季结束后 市场继续转松，可能需要裂解价差进一步回调来吸引炼厂端的增量需求。 低硫燃料油方面，当前市场压力有限，国产量维持低位，近期西区套利供应再度收紧，其中巴西低硫燃料油出口 出现下滑。短期来看，市场结构仍相对稳固，但也无太强驱动。在中期视角下，低硫燃料油依然面临需求份额被 替代、剩余产能较多的矛盾，因此虽估值下方存在一定支撑，向上阻力也较大。 宏观风险、关税风险 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The current geopolitical and macro - economic situation is unclear, especially with limited progress in Russia - Ukraine peace talks. The crude oil market faces many uncertainties in the short - term, showing a range - bound oscillation, and the FU and LU fuel oil markets also show narrow - range fluctuations [1]. - High - sulfur fuel oil is in a stage of structural adjustment and market re - balancing, with relatively abundant overall supply. Middle - East high - sulfur fuel oil exports continue to increase and may rise further after the end of the peak power - generation demand season. If the market continues to loosen, it may require a further decline in crack spreads to attract incremental demand from refineries [1]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil currently has limited market pressure. Domestic production remains low, Western - region arbitrage supply has tightened again, and the outer - market monthly spread structure has strengthened slightly. In the short - term, the market structure is relatively stable but lacks strong driving forces. In the medium - term, it still faces the contradiction of demand share substitution and surplus production capacity, so while there is some support below the valuation, there is also significant upward resistance [1]. 3) Strategy Summary - High - sulfur fuel oil: Expected to oscillate [2]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Expected to oscillate [2]. - Cross - variety: No strategy provided [2]. - Cross - period: No strategy provided [2]. - Spot - futures: No strategy provided [2]. - Options: No strategy provided [2]. 4) Charts Summary - There are 18 charts in the report, including those showing Singapore high - sulfur 380 fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil spot prices, swap near - month contracts, near - month spreads, as well as fuel oil FU and low - sulfur fuel oil LU futures contract closing prices, indices, near - month contract prices, near - month spreads, and trading volume and open interest [3]. - The data sources for these charts are Flush, Steel Union, and Huatai Futures Research Institute [6][7][9]