1. Report Industry Investment Rating - High - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term neutral, leaning towards bearish [2] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term neutral, leaning towards bearish [2] - Cross - variety: None [2] - Cross - period: None [2] - Spot - futures: None [2] - Options: None [2] 2. Core View - The fuel oil market has narrow fluctuations and limited market contradictions. The cost - side support for FU and LU is weak due to insufficient rebound momentum in crude oil prices and the non - reversal of the oversupply expectation in the oil market. The fuel oil market has mixed long and short factors with limited overall driving forces [1]. - For high - sulfur fuel oil, the refining demand has marginally improved after the decline in cracking spreads and premiums. China's imports have recently increased, and attention should be paid to the situations in Russia, Ukraine, and Venezuela. Currently, the supply of high - sulfur fuel oil is still abundant [1]. - For low - sulfur fuel oil, there is an expectation of supply increase in Kuwait and Nigeria due to changes in device maintenance status. The expected low - sulfur oil shipments from Kuwait in December and January are 17,000 tons each, and the expected shipment from Nigeria in December is 80,000 tons [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed flat at 2,473 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 0.23% at 2,977 yuan/ton [1]. - Crude oil prices have insufficient rebound momentum, and the oversupply expectation in the oil market remains. The short - term oversold rebound cannot form an upward trend, resulting in weak cost - side support for FU and LU [1]. - For high - sulfur fuel oil, the cracking spreads and premiums have declined, driving marginal improvement in refinery demand. China's high - sulfur fuel oil imports have recently increased. Attention should be paid to the situations in Russia, Ukraine, and Venezuela. Currently, the supply of high - sulfur fuel oil is abundant without a shortage expectation [1]. - For low - sulfur fuel oil, there is an expectation of supply increase in Kuwait and Nigeria due to changes in device maintenance status. The expected low - sulfur oil shipments from Kuwait in December and January are 17,000 tons each, and the expected shipment from Nigeria in December is 80,000 tons. The incremental supply is currently low, and follow - up device and export dynamics should be monitored [1]. Strategy - High - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term neutral, leaning towards bearish [2] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term neutral, leaning towards bearish [2] - Cross - variety: None [2] - Cross - period: None [2] - Spot - futures: None [2] - Options: None [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - High - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term neutral, leaning towards bearish [3] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term neutral, leaning towards bearish [3] - Cross - variety: None [3] - Cross - period: None [3] - Spot - futures: None [3] - Options: None [3] 2. Core View of the Report - Crude oil price rebound is blocked, the expectation of oil market oversupply remains unchanged, and the short - term oversold rebound cannot form an upward trend, so the cost - side support for FU and LU is weak [2] - The current fuel oil market has a mix of long and short factors, with limited overall driving force [2] - For high - sulfur fuel oil, the marginal improvement in refinery demand has led to a recent increase in China's imports, but the supply is still abundant [2] - For low - sulfur fuel oil, there is an expectation of supply increase in Kuwait and Nigeria, and the short - term market pressure may be limited. The first batch of low - sulfur fuel oil export tax - rebate quotas in 2026 has been issued, but domestic refinery production enthusiasm is still limited [2] 3. Summary by Related Content Market Analysis - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed down 1.76% at 2,459 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 1.62% at 2,974 yuan/ton [1] Strategy - High - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term neutral, leaning towards bearish [3] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term neutral, leaning towards bearish [3] - Other strategies (cross - variety, cross - period, spot - futures, options): None [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - High-sulfur fuel oil: Short-term neutral, slightly bearish [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Short-term neutral, slightly bearish [2] - Cross-variety: None [2] - Cross-period: None [2] - Spot-futures: None [2] - Options: None [2] 2. Core View of the Report - The fuel oil futures prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange showed an upward trend at night, with the main contract of high-sulfur fuel oil rising 1.82% to 2,518 yuan/ton and the main contract of low-sulfur fuel oil rising 0.83% to 3,037 yuan/ton [1] - The crude oil price has been oscillating and rebounding recently. The escalation of the situation in Venezuela has increased the sentiment premium, but the expectation of oversupply in the oil market has not reversed, and the resistance above still exists [1] - For high-sulfur fuel oil, the crack spread has stabilized and rebounded recently. The seizure of Venezuelan oil tankers by the US may lead to an increase in fuel oil procurement demand from domestic refineries, but the supply is still abundant, and the significant increase in registered warehouse receipts has suppressed the market [1] - For low-sulfur fuel oil, the supply in Kuwait and Nigeria is expected to increase. The short-term market pressure may be limited due to the boost in terminal demand at the end of the year and the diversion of components by gasoline and diesel, but the valuation will continue to be suppressed due to abundant supply sources, and there is no shortage expectation [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The main contract of high-sulfur fuel oil on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed up 1.82% at 2,518 yuan/ton at night, and the main contract of low-sulfur fuel oil closed up 0.83% at 3,037 yuan/ton [1] - The crude oil price has been oscillating and rebounding recently, but the expectation of oversupply in the oil market has not reversed, and the resistance above still exists [1] - For high-sulfur fuel oil, the crack spread has stabilized and rebounded recently. The seizure of Venezuelan oil tankers by the US may lead to an increase in fuel oil procurement demand from domestic refineries, but the supply is still abundant, and the significant increase in registered warehouse receipts has suppressed the market [1] - For low-sulfur fuel oil, the supply in Kuwait and Nigeria is expected to increase. The short-term market pressure may be limited due to the boost in terminal demand at the end of the year and the diversion of components by gasoline and diesel, but the valuation will continue to be suppressed due to abundant supply sources, and there is no shortage expectation [1] Strategy - High-sulfur fuel oil: Short-term neutral, slightly bearish [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Short-term neutral, slightly bearish [2] - Cross-variety: None [2] - Cross-period: None [2] - Spot-futures: None [2] - Options: None [2]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View - This week, the fuel oil contracts showed an overall fluctuating downward trend, following the international crude oil's fluctuation rhythm. Geopolitical news such as the tense relationship between the US and Venezuela and Venezuela's export disruptions affected the market this week, but the long - term oversupply pattern of the crude oil market remains unchanged, providing limited support for fuel oil prices [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market - **1.1 Contract Market** - This week, the main fuel oil contract FU2603 closed at 2,390 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton or 0.62% from the previous trading week's settlement price. The weekly high was 2,460 yuan/ton, the low was 2,366 yuan/ton, the trading volume was 2,927,936 lots, and the open interest was 301,764 lots, an increase of 94,646 lots [3]. - **1.2 Variety Price** - The price spreads between different fuel oil futures contracts further narrowed [7]. 2. Spot Market and Warehouse Receipts - **2.1 Basis Data** - The fuel oil spot market performed poorly this week, with the current basis level in the lower range of recent months. The close linkage between fuel oil prices and crude oil, and the low - level consolidation of crude oil further restricted the upward elasticity of the basis [10]. - **2.2 Registered Warehouse Receipts** - According to the Shanghai Futures Exchange's warehouse receipt data, the scale of warehouse receipts remained stable and did not cause significant supply - demand disturbances in the market [13]. 3. Influencing Factors - **3.1 Industry Information** - The benchmark price of fuel oil was 5,400 yuan/ton, up 0.9% from 5,350 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. The benchmark price of 380 CST fuel oil was 385.5 US dollars/ton, also up 0.9% from the beginning of the month [14]. 4. Market Outlook - Affected by crude oil fluctuations, combined with the fundamental contradiction of abundant supply and weak demand, the fuel oil futures market is expected to maintain a volatile pattern in the short term. The narrowing trend of the high - low sulfur price spread is obvious; the supply of high - sulfur fuel oil remains under pressure, and prices may still face downward pressure. Repeated fluctuations in geopolitical situations may bring short - term market trends, but it is difficult to change the long - term weak tone. In the future, attention should be paid to crude oil price trends, geopolitical situation changes, Singapore fuel oil inventory changes, and domestic fuel oil production and import - export data [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, fuel oil futures showed an overall fluctuating downward trend, following the rhythm of international crude oil fluctuations. Prices were mainly affected by the weakening of the crude oil cost side, a significant increase in domestic futures warehouse receipts, and geopolitical supply disturbances [2] 3. Summary of Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market 3.1.1 Contract Market - This week, the main fuel oil contract FU2603 closed at 2,405 yuan/ton, down 89 yuan/ton or 3.57% from the previous trading week's settlement price. The highest price this week was 2,551 yuan/ton, the lowest was 2,387 yuan/ton, the trading volume was 977,113 lots, and the open interest was 207,118 lots, an increase of 62,896 lots [3] 3.1.2 Variety Price - The main fuel oil futures contract has changed to FU2603, and the spreads between contracts have further narrowed [6] 3.2 Spot Market 3.2.1 Basis Data - This week, the fuel oil spot market performed poorly, and the current basis level is in the lower range of recent months. Fuel oil prices are closely linked to crude oil, and the low-level consolidation of crude oil prices further restricts the upward elasticity of the basis [8] 3.3 Outlook and Suggestions - Affected by the weakening of the cost side and the increase in warehouse receipts, the price rebound momentum is insufficient; however, the continuous growth of open interest indicates increased capital attention, and the decline of far-month contracts may be smaller than that of near-month contracts due to less warehouse receipt pressure. In the future, it is necessary to closely monitor the trends of crude oil prices, geopolitical situations, changes in Singapore's fuel oil inventories, and domestic fuel oil production, import, and export data [15]

Report Industry Investment Rating - High-sulfur fuel oil: Short-term neutral, slightly bearish [3] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Short-term neutral, slightly bearish [3] - Cross-variety: None [3] - Cross-period: None [3] - Spot-futures: None [3] - Options: None [3] Core Viewpoints - Crude oil prices continue to oscillate weakly, and the expectation of oversupply in the oil market remains unchanged. The resumption of Russian oil purchases by some buyers has led to a decrease in buying of benchmark crude oil, and the downward pressure on the unilateral prices of FU and LU from the crude oil end will persist [2] - The fundamentals of the fuel oil market are currently a mix of bullish and bearish factors, with limited overall contradictions. The high-sulfur fuel oil market is in an adjustment phase, and the crack spread has fallen significantly from its high. Although the supply is abundant and the floating storage volume is high, the refining profit margin has improved, and the import volume of high-sulfur fuel oil in China has recently rebounded, providing some support to the market [2] - The overall supply of low-sulfur fuel oil is not short. The extension of the maintenance of the Azur refinery has disrupted the supply rhythm. After November, Kuwait's shipping volume dropped to zero. However, part of the Azur refinery has restarted, and the market pressure will increase again after full recovery [2] Market Analysis - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed up 1.5% at 2,441 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 1.08% at 3,005 yuan/ton [1] Charts - The report includes 18 charts showing various prices, spreads, and trading volumes of high-sulfur and low-sulfur fuel oils in Singapore and Chinese futures markets, with data sources from Flush, Steel Union, and Huatai Futures Research Institute [4]

Group 1 - Fuel oil futures showed a downward trend, with the main contract down 1.45% to 2385.00 yuan/ton as of the report [1] - Hindustan Petroleum Corporation is selling 30,000 tons of high-sulfur fuel oil via tender for shipment at Visakhapatnam port in late December [2] - Fujairah's total refined oil inventory increased by 476,000 barrels to 23.512 million barrels as of December 8, 2025, with specific changes in inventory levels for different oil types [2] Group 2 - The RFCC unit at Dangote refinery began scheduled maintenance on December 8, expected to last until January 26, which may lead to a rebound in Nigeria's low-sulfur fuel oil exports [2] - Market volatility was influenced by geopolitical tensions and a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve, leading to a rebound in oil prices [4] - Supply dynamics are affected by refinery maintenance and regional variations, with a decrease in oil and sludge inventory in Shandong, while wax oil inventory continues to rise [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - High-sulfur fuel oil: Short-term neutral, slightly bearish [3] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Short-term neutral, slightly bearish [3] - Cross-variety: None [3] - Cross-period: None [3] - Spot-futures: None [3] - Options: None [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - The rebound of the crude oil market has been blocked and then turned down again, indicating that the expectation of oversupply in the oil market has not reversed. The cost side will continue to suppress the unilateral price of fuel oil, and both FU and LU will operate in a weak and volatile manner [2]. - The current overall market contradictions in the fuel oil market are limited. The market structure of high-sulfur fuel oil is in the adjustment stage, and the crack spread has dropped significantly from the high level. With the release of increased supply in the Middle East, the market needs an increase in refinery demand to offset it. After the price ratio drops, its economic efficiency begins to gradually emerge, which will form a certain support at the bottom. However, currently, the supply of high-sulfur fuel oil is relatively abundant, the floating storage volume is high, and the surplus needs to be digested [2]. - In the low-sulfur fuel oil market, the overall supply is not in short supply, but there are local reductions. Due to the extended maintenance time of the Azur refinery, the shipping and delivery volume of Kuwait tracked since November has still been zero. The two CDU units of Azur are expected to restart in the middle and late of this month. In addition, the RFCC unit of the Dangote refinery has been under maintenance since December 8 (planned maintenance, expected to last until January 26), and the export of low-sulfur fuel oil from Nigeria may increase again during the maintenance period. As of now, the shipping volume of low-sulfur oil from Nigeria in December is zero. Looking forward, the short-term trend of the high-low sulfur spread is slightly bullish, but the upside space is expected to be limited [2]. 3. Market Analysis - The main contract of Shanghai Futures Exchange fuel oil futures closed down 0.65% at 2,427 yuan/ton in the day session; the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 0.17% at 3,009 yuan/ton [1]. 4. Strategy - High-sulfur fuel oil: Short-term neutral, slightly bearish [3] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Short-term neutral, slightly bearish [3] - Cross-variety: None [3] - Cross-period: None [3] - Spot-futures: None [3] - Options: None [3] 5. Figures - The report includes figures showing various fuel oil prices and trading volumes, such as Singapore high-sulfur 380 fuel oil spot price, Singapore low-sulfur fuel oil spot price, Singapore high-sulfur fuel oil swap near-month contract, etc. [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - High-sulfur fuel oil: Short-term neutral, slightly bearish [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Short-term neutral, slightly bearish [2] - Cross-variety: None [2] - Cross-period: None [2] - Spot-futures: None [2] - Options: None [2] 2. Core Viewpoints - The night session of the main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed down 1.35%, at 2,410 yuan/ton; the night session of the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 0.56%, at 2,997 yuan/ton [1] - After the rebound, crude oil prices have retraced again, indicating that the market's expectation of oversupply in the oil market has not reversed. In the medium term, the cost side will continue to suppress the unilateral price of fuel oil [1] - In terms of the fundamentals of fuel oil itself, the current overall market contradictions are limited. The market structure of high-sulfur fuel oil is in the adjustment phase, and the crack spread has dropped significantly from its high level. With the release of increased supply from the Middle East, the market needs an increase in refinery demand to offset it. After the price ratio dropped, its economic viability began to show, which will provide some support at the bottom [1] - For low-sulfur fuel oil, the overall market supply is still relatively abundant, but there are local reductions. Due to the extended maintenance time of Azul Refinery, the shipping volume tracked in Kuwait since November remains zero. In addition, the RFCC unit of Dangote Refinery has been under maintenance since December 8 (scheduled maintenance, expected to last until January 26). During the maintenance period, Nigeria's low-sulfur fuel oil exports may increase again. The short-term trend of the high-low sulfur spread is oscillating and slightly bullish, but the upside space is expected to be limited [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Analysis - The night session of the main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed down 1.35%, at 2,410 yuan/ton; the night session of the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 0.56%, at 2,997 yuan/ton [1] - Crude oil prices retraced after a rebound, indicating that the expectation of oversupply in the oil market has not reversed. The cost side will continue to suppress the unilateral price of fuel oil in the medium term [1] - The overall market contradictions in the fuel oil market are limited. The high-sulfur fuel oil market structure is in adjustment, and the crack spread has dropped from its high. With increased Middle Eastern supply, refinery demand needs to rise. The economic viability of high-sulfur fuel oil has emerged, providing some support [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil supply is generally ample with local reductions. The extended maintenance of Azul Refinery has led to zero shipping in Kuwait since November. Dangote Refinery's RFCC unit is under maintenance from December 8 to January 26, and Nigeria's low-sulfur fuel oil exports may increase. The high-low sulfur spread is oscillating and slightly bullish, with limited upside [1] Strategy - High-sulfur fuel oil: Short-term neutral, slightly bearish [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Short-term neutral, slightly bearish [2] - Cross-variety: None [2] - Cross-period: None [2] - Spot-futures: None [2] - Options: None [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - High - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term neutral, leaning towards bearish [2] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term neutral, leaning towards bearish [2] - Cross - variety: None [2] - Cross - term: None [2] - Spot - futures: None [2] - Options: None [2] 2. Core View of the Report - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed down 1.3% at 2,437 yuan/ton during the day session, and the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 0.59% at 3,028 yuan/ton at night [1] - Although crude oil prices have rebounded slightly from the low level recently, the medium - term expectation of oversupply in the oil market is gradually being realized. If the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement is successfully reached, the geopolitical premium may further subside, suppressing the unilateral price of fuel oil from the cost side [1] - In terms of the fundamentals of fuel oil itself, the overall market contradictions are limited. The high - sulfur fuel oil market structure is in the adjustment stage, and the crack spread continues to decline. The shipment of high - sulfur fuel oil from the Middle East showed signs of recovery in early December, possibly driven by the decrease in refinery maintenance and power plant demand. Currently, the high - sulfur fuel oil crack spread needs incremental demand from refineries to support it [1] - For low - sulfur fuel oil, the overall market supply is still relatively abundant, but there are local reductions. Due to the extended maintenance of the Azur refinery, the shipping volume of Kuwait tracked from November to now remains zero. There is still short - term support for the low - sulfur fuel oil market, and the high - low sulfur spread is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, but the upside space is limited [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Analysis - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed down 1.3% at 2,437 yuan/ton during the day session, and the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 0.59% at 3,028 yuan/ton at night [1] - Crude oil prices rebounded slightly from the low level, but the medium - term oversupply expectation in the oil market is being realized. If the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement is reached, the geopolitical premium may subside, suppressing fuel oil prices from the cost side [1] - High - sulfur fuel oil market structure is in adjustment, crack spread is declining. Middle East high - sulfur fuel oil shipments recovered in early December, possibly due to less refinery maintenance and power plant demand. The crack spread needs refinery demand support [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil supply is generally abundant with local reductions. Due to refinery maintenance, Kuwait's shipping volume is zero. There is short - term support, and the high - low sulfur spread may fluctuate strongly with limited upside [1] Strategy - High - sulfur: Short - term neutral, leaning towards bearish [2] - Low - sulfur: Short - term neutral, leaning towards bearish [2] - Cross - variety: None [2] - Cross - term: None [2] - Spot - futures: None [2] - Options: None [2]