Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The soybean market is influenced by factors such as weather, trade policies, and supply - demand dynamics. The new - year US soybeans may be in a process of bottom - building, and the domestic soybean meal market is in a situation where external costs are likely to rise while domestic pressure is gradually increasing [2][3][5]. - The palm oil market has support from low inventories in some regions, but if the production continues to recover rapidly, the oil price will still be under pressure. The overall trend of oils is expected to be volatile [12][13]. - The sugar market may face a weakening trend as the international supply situation eases and domestic imports are expected to increase [15][16]. - The cotton market is expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term due to factors such as positive macro - news and a small decrease in downstream operating rates [18][19]. - The egg market is under pressure with increasing supply, and a bearish view is maintained on near - month contracts [21][22]. - The short - term trend of the pig market is restricted, and a strategy of short - selling on rebounds is recommended [24][25]. 3. Summaries by Directory Soybean/M粕类 - **Market Situation**: US soybeans closed down on Friday due to concerns about exports. The weather in the US soybean - growing areas has disturbances, which may affect sowing. The domestic soybean meal spot price fluctuates slightly, and the supply pressure is gradually increasing [2][3]. - **Supply Forecast**: According to MYSTEEL, the estimated soybean arrivals in May, June, and July are 919.75 million tons, 1.1 billion tons, and 1.05 billion tons respectively. The oil mill's soybean crushing volume last week was 2.21 million tons, and it is expected to be 2.25 million tons this week [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the 09 contract of soybean meal, pay attention to possible weather stimuli from the external market at the lower end of the cost range and whether domestic pressure and bullish factors have been fully traded at the upper end [5]. Oils - **Market Situation**: Malaysian palm oil production has increased, and exports show different trends in different periods. The domestic spot basis of oils has a slight downward trend [6][12]. - **Trading Strategy**: The oils market is expected to be volatile. Bearish factors include the decline of the crude oil center and the possible lower - than - expected US biodiesel policy. Bullish factors are the low inventories in some regions [13]. Sugar - **Market Situation**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price fell slightly on Friday. The number of ships waiting to load sugar and the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped at Brazilian ports decreased [15]. - **Trading Strategy**: The international sugar supply situation has eased, and domestic imports are expected to increase, so the sugar price is likely to weaken [16]. Cotton - **Market Situation**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuated narrowly on Friday. The downstream operating rates decreased slightly, and the cotton inventory decreased slightly [18]. - **Trading Strategy**: Due to positive macro - news and a small decrease in downstream operating rates, the cotton price is expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term and may fill the upper gap [19]. Eggs - **Market Situation**: The domestic egg price first fell and then stabilized over the weekend, with some areas rising. The supply of newly - laying hens continues to increase, and the demand is mostly stable [21]. - **Trading Strategy**: Maintain a strategy of short - selling on rebounds for near - month contracts such as 06 and 07, and pay attention to the support of far - month contracts such as 09 [22]. Pigs - **Market Situation**: The domestic pig price mostly rose over the weekend, with some areas having a resurgence of secondary fattening and a cautious attitude from the breeding side [24]. - **Trading Strategy**: Do not go long in the short - term, and there is no need to chase short positions recently. Adopt a strategy of short - selling on rebounds in the future [25].

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - This week, the futures prices of edible oils fluctuated and consolidated. The MPOB report on palm oil was bearish, while the USDA report was bullish. Due to changes in the US renewable fuel policy, the demand for biodiesel changed, causing significant fluctuations in US soybean oil. With the fast planting progress of US soybeans and the expected high - yield of South American soybeans, the domestic supply of soybean oil will gradually shift from tight to loose. During the palm oil production season, the supply - demand of palm oil is expected to become marginally looser. Recently, the domestic rapeseed oil inventory remains high with sufficient supply. As the China - US trade negotiation makes substantial progress, the market's expectation of improved China - Canada trade relations has increased, which may be bearish for the domestic rapeseed market. Recently, market sentiment has been volatile, and it is highly likely that the prices of the three major domestic edible oils will fluctuate widely driven by trade policies, overseas biodiesel policies, and the supply of oilseeds [9][31][32]. Summary by Directory 1. Spot Analysis - As of May 15, 2025, the spot price of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8,240 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at the average level compared with the past 5 years [10]. - As of May 15, 2025, the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,600 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at a relatively high level compared with the past 5 years [11]. - As of May 15, 2025, the spot price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,330 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at a relatively low level compared with the past 5 years [12]. 2. Other Data - As of May 9, 2025, the national soybean oil inventory decreased by 0.50 million tons to 70.60 million tons. On May 14, 2025, the national commercial inventory of palm oil decreased by 0.80 million tons to 32.40 million tons [16]. - As of May 15, 2025, the port's imported soybean inventory was 5,542,630 tons [19]. - As of May 15, 2025, the basis of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 444 yuan/ton, up 48 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at the average level compared with the past 5 years [20][21]. - As of May 15, 2025, the basis of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 34 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at a relatively low level compared with the past 5 years [23]. 3. Comprehensive Analysis - This week, the futures prices of edible oils fluctuated and consolidated. The Y2509 soybean oil contract fell 0.33% to close at 7,754 yuan/ton, the P2509 palm oil contract rose 1.24% to close at 7,984 yuan/ton, and the OI2509 rapeseed oil contract fell 0.83% to close at 9,277 yuan/ton [29]. - According to the MPOB report, Malaysia's palm oil production in April was 1.686 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 21.52%, higher than Reuters' expectation of 1.62 million tons; exports were 1.102 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.62%, in line with Reuters' expectation of 1.1 million tons; inventory was 1.865 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 19.37%, higher than Reuters' expectation of 1.79 million tons. Malaysian palm oil rose 0.26% [29]. - According to the USDA's May supply - demand report, the US soybean planting area in the 2025/26 season is 83.5 million acres, a year - on - year decrease of 3.6%; the estimated yield per acre is 52.5 bushels, a year - on - year increase of 3.5%, and the soybean output is estimated to be 4.34 billion bushels, a year - on - year decrease of 0.6%. The US soybean crushing volume in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 2.49 billion bushels, a year - on - year increase of 2.9%; the export volume is expected to drop to 1.815 billion bushels, a year - on - year decrease of 1.9%; the ending inventory of soybeans is expected to be 295 million bushels, a year - on - year decrease of 15.7%. The inventory - to - use ratio is estimated to be 6.7%, lower than 8.0% in the 2024/25 season, indicating a tightening supply. The report predicts that the global soybean output in the 2025/26 season will be 427 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.95 million tons, mainly contributed by the increase in Brazil's soybean output; imports will be 186 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.66 million tons; crushing volume will be 366 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.3 million tons; exports will be 188 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.56 million tons. The global ending inventory of soybeans is 124 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.15 million tons. US soybeans fell 0.12% this week [30].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The overall view of the agricultural products sector in commodity futures is that the prices of soymeal and palm oil are showing signs of weakness. The internal and external linkages of soybeans have strengthened after the price difference repair, and the decline in US soybean futures prices has put pressure on the domestic soybean market. The increase in the arrival of imported soybeans and the gradual recovery of oil refinery operating rates have led to a short - term decline in the basis of soymeal, with its futures prices showing a weak and volatile trend. The overall trend of edible oil futures is weak, and the lack of driving factors for palm oil has caused it to be dragged down by the soybean oil market, resulting in a weak operation of its futures prices [5][7]. 3. Summary by Variety Soymeal (M) - **Intraday View**: Weak and volatile [5] - **Medium - term View**: Volatile [5] - **Reference View**: Weak and volatile [5] - **Core Logic**: After the repair of the price difference between domestic and foreign soybeans, the internal - external linkage has increased. The decline in US soybean futures prices due to concerns about the demand for biodiesel made from US soybean oil has put pressure on the domestic soybean market. The increase in the arrival of imported soybeans and the gradual recovery of oil refinery operating rates, along with the incomplete recovery of the oil refinery's shipping rhythm, have led to a short - term decline in the basis of soymeal [5]. Palm Oil (P) - **Intraday View**: Weak [7] - **Medium - term View**: Volatile [7] - **Reference View**: Weak [7] - **Core Logic**: The overall trend of edible oil futures is weak, with some short - term funds leaving the market. The US soybean oil futures hitting the daily limit down due to the lower - than - expected demand for biodiesel made from US soybean oil has dragged down the domestic soybean oil futures prices. Palm oil lacks driving factors and is dragged down by the soybean oil market, resulting in a weak operation of its futures prices [7].

Core Insights - Palm oil futures opened higher for the second consecutive trading day, but are expected to decline for two consecutive weeks, indicating potential volatility in the market [1] Group 1: Market Trends - Global trade easing and increased demand for biodiesel are contributing factors that may influence palm oil prices positively [1]