每经AI快讯，中信证券研报表示，10月能繁母猪去化加速。短期来看，行业供给端持续维持宽松局 面，猪价震荡承压，后续去产能有望持续，加持2026H2以后周期景气及持续时间。继续推荐：1）强创 现和分红能力的头部企业；2）成本领先企业；3）并购增量的企业。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that the destocking of breeding sows accelerated in October, leading to a sustained loose supply situation in the industry, which is putting pressure on pork prices. However, the ongoing destocking is expected to support the cyclical recovery starting in the second half of 2026 [1]. Group 1: Industry Supply and Pricing - The supply side of the industry continues to maintain a loose situation, resulting in fluctuations and pressure on pork prices [1]. - The ongoing destocking process is anticipated to continue, which may enhance the cyclical prosperity and its duration post-2026 H2 [1]. Group 2: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies with strong cash flow and dividend capabilities [1]. - It also suggests investing in cost-leading companies [1]. - Additionally, companies that are involved in mergers and acquisitions for growth are highlighted as potential investment opportunities [1].

Core Viewpoint - The pig market is experiencing a prolonged period of oversupply, leading to significant price declines and deep losses for producers, with the current average price of live pigs falling nearly 30% year-on-year [2][5]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The shift in trading focus from the 2601 to the 2603 futures contract indicates a temporary easing of pressure on near-term contracts, but the overall rebound remains weak due to ongoing supply-demand imbalances [1]. - As of the end of November, the average price of live pigs in China is between 11.4 to 11.7 yuan per kilogram, reflecting a substantial year-on-year decrease [2]. - The current pig production capacity reduction is slow, with only about 800,000 fewer breeding sows in the year, despite a recent decline in the breeding sow population below 40 million for the first time in 15 months [2][3]. Group 2: Production Capacity Challenges - The slow pace of capacity reduction is attributed to three main factors: the resilience of large-scale farms, incomplete capacity reduction among smallholders, and an increase in the number of heavier pigs being raised [2][3]. - Large-scale farms are less inclined to reduce production due to their financial and technical advantages, with a slight increase in breeding sow numbers in certain regions [2]. - Smallholder farmers are hesitant to reduce their herds, hoping for a rebound in prices due to seasonal demand, which has led to a lack of significant capacity reduction [2][5]. Group 3: Supply Pressure and Market Expectations - The phenomenon of secondary fattening has intensified supply pressures, with a notable increase in the proportion of heavier pigs being sold, exacerbating the oversupply situation [4][5]. - Producers are facing a "price inversion" situation where the cost of fattening exceeds the selling price, leading to increased losses [4]. - The expectation of a recovery in demand has not materialized, with consumer spending on dining out at a 15-month low, further complicating the market dynamics [5]. Group 4: Policy and Regulatory Environment - The current regulatory framework aims to balance long-term production capacity control with short-term market stabilization measures, but the effectiveness of these policies is limited by the deep supply-demand imbalance [6][7]. - The Ministry of Agriculture has set a target for breeding sow numbers and will implement counter-cyclical management to address significant deviations from this target [7]. - The temporary meat storage policy is intended to provide short-term market support, but its impact is minimal due to limited storage capacity and the time lag in implementation [7][8]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The effects of production capacity adjustments are expected to manifest in 10 to 12 months, while immediate price pressures can only be temporarily alleviated through storage policies [8]. - Without a substantial recovery in consumer demand, the overall weak market conditions in the pig industry are likely to persist [8].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Maintain Increase" [4] Core Views - The trend of pig reduction continues, suggesting a strategic opportunity for participation in the sector [15][16] - The price of lean meat pigs as of November 28, 2025, is 11.09 CNY/kg, down 9.1% from the previous month, indicating ongoing industry losses [15][18] - The average profit for self-breeding pigs is -147.99 CNY/head, a decrease of 58.66 CNY/head from the previous month, while the profit for purchased piglets is -248.82 CNY/head, down 69.1 CNY/head [15][23] - The number of breeding sows has decreased to 39.9 million, and further production capacity reduction is expected due to policy and low prices [15][16] - The mushroom sector shows a sustained price rebound for enoki mushrooms, with strong performance expected from key companies [16] - The seed industry is seeing a clear trend of variety replacement, with transgenic varieties entering commercial sales, indicating potential growth for related companies [16] - In poultry farming, seasonal price elasticity opportunities are noted for yellow feathered chickens, while white feathered chickens are affected by avian influenza in Europe [17] Summary by Sections Pig Farming - The lean meat pig price is 11.09 CNY/kg, down 9.1% from last month [18] - The average wholesale price of pork is 17.83 CNY/kg, down 1.1% [18] - The profit for self-breeding pigs is -147.99 CNY/head, a decrease of 58.66 CNY/head [23] - The profit for purchased piglets is -248.82 CNY/head, down 69.1 CNY/head [23] Mushroom Sector - Enoki mushroom prices remain strong, confirming a sustained price rebound [16] - The release period for Cordyceps sinensis as a key new product is approaching, with strong performance expected [16] Seed Industry - A clear trend of variety replacement in corn is noted, with transgenic varieties entering commercial sales [16] - Companies like Kangnong Seed Industry and Longping High-Tech are highlighted for potential growth [16] Poultry Farming - The price of meat chicken chicks is 3.47 CNY/chick, down 3.1% from last month [28] - The average price of white feathered chickens is 7.19 CNY/kg, up 1.4% [32] - The average price of chicken products is 8.95 CNY/kg, up 0.6% [32] Agricultural Products - Domestic corn prices increased to 2329.8 CNY/ton, up 4.0% [44] - Domestic wheat prices rose to 2507.28 CNY/ton, up 0.7% [46] - Domestic soybean prices increased to 4014.74 CNY/ton, up 0.4% [57]

Core Insights - The pork stocks have seen an increase, with notable gains in companies like Luoniushan and Jinxinnong, while the Livestock Breeding ETF has also experienced a net inflow of approximately 96 million yuan over the past 20 trading days [1][3] Industry Overview - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs reported that the national breeding sow inventory for October was 39.9 million heads, a decrease of 450,000 heads from September, marking a decline of 1.1% [1] - The average price of live pigs as of November 24 was 11.6 yuan/kg, down from 12.25 yuan/kg on September 30, indicating a price drop of 0.65 yuan/kg [3] - The price of piglets also fell to 21.21 yuan/kg, down 1.01 yuan/kg from 22.22 yuan/kg on September 30 [3] - The pig-to-grain ratio is currently at 5.23, down from 5.44 at the end of September, reflecting significant supply pressure in the industry [3] Financial Performance - The current profitability for purchased piglets and self-bred piglets is reported at -234.64 yuan/head and -135.9 yuan/head respectively, indicating an increase in losses compared to the previous week [3] - The industry is facing comprehensive losses, with supply pressures expected to persist in the short term, leading to passive capacity reduction [3] Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the industry may enter an accelerated phase of capacity reduction due to dual pressures from policy adjustments and production losses, presenting potential investment opportunities in the pig farming sector [4] - In the medium to long term, leading breeding companies are expected to see a decrease in costs and an increase in profit margins, supported by stable cash flows and dividend expectations [4] - The Livestock Breeding ETF, which tracks the livestock breeding index, has the lowest management fee rate of 0.2% per year among similar ETFs, making it an attractive option for investors [4]

生猪产能去化加速，板块迎来配置机遇 20251123 目前生猪板块正处于新一轮的起点，进入了去产能的逻辑。自 2025 年 6 月以 来，行业逐步从政策炒作转向稳定发展，并在 10 月份加速了去产能进程。农 业农村部数据显示，10 月份能繁母猪存栏量已降至 4,000 万头以下，相比 9 月份下降了 0.9%。这一趋势表明行业正在加速去化。 2025 年下半年的猪价走势如何？ 2025 年下半年猪价持续低迷。尽管市场上曾有部分观点看好下半年猪价，但 我们一直持悲观态度。从数据来看，今年头部猪企出栏增速显著，全年出栏增 速达 20%，绝对值增加了 3,400 多万头。而去年（2024 年）仅为 5%左右， 增加约 800 万头。这种快速增长导致供给压力巨大，加之需求端未见显著变化， 10 月份能繁母猪数量加速下降，预计下降速度可能会维持在每月环比 0.9%至 1%左右，行业将逐步进入产能去化加速的阶段。市场情绪非常 悲观。 当前行业环境下，应选择成本低、具有扩张潜力、资产负债率低且现金 流强劲的公司作为投资标的。推荐牧原股份和温氏股份，小型企业如天 康、德康、神农、巨星和丽华也值得关注。年底是政策密集出台期，对 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from GF Securities indicates that several listed companies have released monthly operational data, showing an overall increase in pig output in October 2025, despite a recent decline in pig prices below 12 yuan/kg, leading to continued losses across the industry. The expectation is for low piglet prices to persist in the upcoming months due to the off-peak season for restocking, with a recommendation to prioritize leading companies with cost advantages given the current low valuation of the sector [1]. Group 1: Listed Companies' Output Tracking - In October 2025, the overall pig output from 15 listed companies increased by 23.7% month-on-month and 46.4% year-on-year, totaling 18.43 million pigs. Excluding Muyuan Foods, the output was 11.35 million pigs, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 21.8% and a year-on-year increase of 73.0% [2]. - From January to October 2025, the total pig output from listed companies reached 154.79 million, marking a year-on-year growth of 35.0%. Excluding Muyuan Foods, the output was 90.39 million, with a year-on-year increase of 27.5% [2]. - Major companies like Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, New Hope, and Dekang Agriculture reported significant increases in pig output, with Muyuan Foods alone contributing 7.08 million pigs in October, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 27.0% and a year-on-year increase of 14.6% [2]. Group 2: Small and Medium-sized Breeding Enterprises - In October, small and medium-sized enterprises such as Tangrenshen, Tiankang Biological, Shennong Group, and Juxing Agriculture reported pig outputs of 619,000; 304,000; 335,000; and 459,000 respectively, with month-on-month increases of 50.7%, 13.7%, 46.5%, and 30.6% [3]. - From January to October 2025, these companies had cumulative outputs of 4.38 million; 2.59 million; 2.45 million; and 3.39 million pigs, with year-on-year increases of 33.2%, 6.5%, 31.0%, and 64.4% respectively [3]. Group 3: Sales Price Analysis - In October, the average sales price for listed companies (excluding Dongrui) was 11.46 yuan/kg, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 11.8%. Variations in sales prices were influenced by factors such as sales regions, product quality, and piglet sales proportions [4]. - The average weight of pigs sold in October was approximately 119.74 kg per head, showing a month-on-month increase of 0.8% [4]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The report highlights that the recent decline in pig prices has led to ongoing losses across the industry, with piglet prices expected to remain low in the near term. The current industry losses, combined with a trend towards reducing production capacity, suggest a potential acceleration in the pace of capacity reduction [5]. - The report recommends focusing on leading companies with cost advantages, specifically highlighting Wens Foodstuff Group and Muyuan Foods as key investment targets, while also suggesting attention to Dekang Agriculture and New Hope. For potential recovery plays, Zhengbang Technology is noted, along with small and medium-sized enterprises like Tiankang Biological, Shennong Group, and Tangrenshen [5].

消息面上，上周猪价格环比下跌，全国生猪价格 11.97 元/公斤，周环比-4.7%。此外，10 月中旬以来二 育快速上量博弈年前猪价行情，当前二育入场渐至尾声，市场存量二育已高于 2024 年同期。 券商研究方面，开源证券指出，当前行业生猪出栏均重高于 2024 年同期，生猪出栏均重或再度上移。 当前标肥价差已收窄，肥猪供给渐充裕，展望后市猪价反弹或渐至尾声，供给压力下猪价磨底或延续。 而当前较高的存量二育或将造成供给增量后移压力。该压力或将于年前集中释放，届时猪价或进一步承 压下行。在此背景下，生猪及仔猪均陷亏损，叠加政策疫病多因素催化，生猪去化或加速。 截至2025年11月10日 10:22，中证畜牧养殖指数(930707)上涨，成分股罗牛山(000735)上涨5.30%，蔚蓝 生物(603739)上涨2.45%，兄弟科技(002562)上涨2.00%，海大集团(002311)上涨1.89%，安迪苏(600299) 上涨1.78%。畜牧ETF(159867)上涨0.45%， 冲击4连涨。最新价报0.67元。 畜牧ETF紧密跟踪中证畜牧养殖指数，中证畜牧养殖指数选取涉及畜禽饲料、畜禽药物以及畜禽养殖等 业务 ...

近期，国内生猪现货市场在经历短暂反弹后再次调头下行，期货市场亦同步走弱。截至10月31日，生猪期货主力2601合约收盘价较前期反 弹高点下跌约5%，反映出市场情绪再度趋于谨慎。本轮猪价"止涨转跌"并非孤立现象，而是基本面供应充裕、需求边际转弱等多重因素共 同作用的结果，预示着四季度中后期猪价仍将面临一定的供应压力。 能繁母猪存栏偏高奠定供应基础 从生猪生长的周期来看，能繁母猪存栏水平决定了10个月后市场的生猪供应潜力。根据农业农村部发布的数据，2024年四季度至2025年三 季度末，全国能繁母猪存栏量持续维持在4000万头以上，高于农业农村部设定的3900万头正常保有量。这一数据表明，能繁母猪产能仍处 于相对宽松区间，为后续商品猪供应提供了坚实基础。 图为能繁母猪存栏量（单位：万头） 企业建库意愿降低与消费提振递减 在国庆后的一轮反弹中，猪价逐渐逼近行业完全成本线，部分利好因素开始减弱甚至消退。 1.冻品入库经济性明显下降 在猪价跌破现金流成本线时，部分屠宰企业倾向于将鲜肉转为冻肉储备，以此平衡市场供应，并博取远期猪价上涨的利润。然而，随着近 期猪价反弹至行业平均养殖完全成本线附近，冻品入库的经济性显著下降。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The supply pressure in the pig farming industry remains significant in Q4, but ongoing "anti-involution" measures are expected to positively impact pig prices in 2024 [1] Supply and Demand Analysis - Since May 2024, pig production capacity has increased, leading to continued supply growth expected in Q4 2025 and Q1 2026, which will exert pressure on pig prices [1] - The industry is actively implementing "anti-involution" strategies, focusing on controlling production capacity, reducing weight, and limiting second breeding [1] Policy and Market Impact - The enforcement of policies is expected to intensify, coupled with recent low pig prices and increasing losses, which may accelerate the reduction of production capacity [1] - A new upward trend in pig prices is anticipated in the second half of next year [1] Industry Index Overview - The Livestock ETF (159865) tracks the China Securities Livestock Index (930707), which selects listed companies involved in livestock farming and feed processing to reflect the overall performance of the livestock sector [1] - The China Securities Livestock Index covers various sub-sectors, including livestock farming, feed, and animal health, demonstrating strong industry representation [1]