Core Insights - The average wholesale price of pork in China increased slightly to 17.53 yuan/kg on December 19, 2025, up 0.2% from 17.5 yuan/kg on December 12, 2025, but down 1.1% from the previous week's average of 17.65 yuan/kg [1] - The average price of live pigs (external three yuan) rose to 11.71 yuan/kg on December 19, 2025, marking a 2.3% increase from 11.45 yuan/kg on December 12, 2025, and a 2% increase from the previous week's average of 11.37 yuan/kg [1] Price Trends - The average transaction weight of live pigs was reported at 124.79 kg, showing a slight increase of 0.15% week-on-week [3] - The operating rate of major domestic slaughter enterprises increased to an average of 43.16%, up 2.08 percentage points from the previous week, driven by rising demand for pork as winter approaches [3] Market Dynamics - The recent rebound in live pig prices is attributed to stronger consumer demand during the consumption phase, although the overall supply of live pigs is expected to increase by the end of Q1 next year [4] - Short-term demand is anticipated to weaken post-winter solstice, with a potential increase in purchasing activity before the Spring Festival [4] - The market outlook suggests a narrowing upward trend followed by a potential decline in prices due to increased supply and reduced demand after the winter solstice [4]

Group 1 - The national average price of live pigs on December 15 is 11.56 yuan/kg, remaining stable compared to the previous day [1] - The price monitoring indicates that the external three-yuan pig prices show a trend of 6 increases, 7 decreases, and 18 stable across 31 provinces, indicating a steady decline [1] - In Chongqing, the meat supply index increased by 4.33% compared to the previous day, while Beijing's wholesale trading volume of pork increased by 5.20% to 612,700 kg [1] Group 2 - The average price difference for external three-yuan pigs across 21 major regions is approximately 0.40 yuan/kg, which is an increase of 0.05 yuan/kg from the previous day, but still below the average transportation cost of 0.65 yuan/kg [3] - The analysis suggests that due to the cold wave, some large farms are maintaining prices for sales, while seasonal demand improvements have led to increased orders from slaughterhouses and higher operating rates [3] - However, the increase in demand has not met expectations, leading to a lack of significant upward momentum in pig prices, with forecasts indicating stable prices for the following day [3]

Summary of the Conference Call on the Swine Industry Industry Overview - The swine industry is experiencing significant losses in 2025, with self-breeding operations facing a theoretical loss of 200 RMB per head and fattening pig losses ranging from 270 to 300 RMB per head. The average price of pigs has dropped from 15-16 RMB per kilogram at the beginning of the year to 11-11.5 RMB per kilogram, hitting a low of around 10 RMB in early October [1][3][4]. Key Points and Arguments Price and Production Capacity - Official data indicates a decline in the number of breeding sows since July, but third-party monitoring shows that production capacity remained stable from July to September, suggesting limited effectiveness in reducing capacity. It is expected that the number of pigs slaughtered will be affected in the second half of 2026 [1][4]. - The average weight of pigs traded nationwide is approximately 124.59 kg, which is lower than the same period in previous years. The slaughtering rate of enterprises is around 41%, down from over 50% last year, indicating weak consumer demand [7][8]. Cost Structure and Responses - The domestic breeding cost is concentrated between 12-12.5 RMB per kilogram, with some leading companies managing to keep costs below 12 RMB. The current losses have led some medium-sized breeders to extend breeding cycles and use lower-quality feed, while smallholders are adjusting biosecurity measures without significant capacity reduction [5][16]. - Most smallholders are expected to withstand losses until the Spring Festival, aided by credit sales and discounts from feed service companies, which alleviate financial pressure [2][17]. Market Expectations - The overall market situation in 2025 is expected to be weaker than in 2023, with predictions of a gradual reduction in pig slaughtering volumes starting in July and August 2026. However, a supply-demand imbalance is necessary for price increases, with anticipated average prices for 2026 ranging from 12 to 12.5 RMB per kilogram [8][19]. - The price forecast for early 2025 remains low, around 11 RMB, with expectations of a significant drop post-Spring Festival [9][10][11]. Inventory and Weight Changes - The decline in average weight by 2 kg is considered normal as producers aim to minimize losses when prices fall below cost. However, the reduction primarily affects larger pigs awaiting slaughter, and it will take time to lower the overall inventory across all age groups [13][14]. Capacity Reduction and Future Trends - Group companies and medium-sized farms are slightly reducing capacity, but the overall decline is limited. Most smallholders are not engaging in significant capacity reduction due to expectations of better market conditions around traditional consumption peaks [15][18]. - The swine industry still has room for cost reduction, particularly in production efficiency and feed alternatives. The use of high-quality breeding stock and improved feed conversion ratios could significantly lower costs [21]. Regional Insights - The free-range breeding model in Shandong shows advantages such as shorter cycles and lower capital costs, but it also faces risks related to procurement and management capabilities. The optimal scale for operations is between 1,000 to 5,000 heads [22]. Cost Variance and Market Dynamics - Cost variance is expected to narrow as production methods converge, particularly in free-range systems. The differences between large group farms and smallholders are also diminishing as operational scales become more uniform across regions [23]. Additional Important Insights - The overall sentiment in the industry is cautious, with most companies opting to maintain current scales rather than expand, reflecting a wait-and-see approach in light of uncertain market conditions [19].

Summary of Livestock Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the livestock industry, specifically the pig farming sector, and discusses the current market conditions and future trends related to pig prices and supply dynamics [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments Current Market Conditions - The pig market is experiencing fluctuations due to seasonal factors, with prices for fat pigs higher than standard pigs post-Chinese New Year, but a significant drop in prices observed from June to August 2025 due to supply mismatches [1][2]. - In September and October, slaughter data showed a month-on-month increase of 7% and 3% respectively, indicating potential unmonitored small pigs entering the market [1][3]. - The impact of local rainfall on piglet mortality rates has been noted, affecting the concentration of fat pig sales [1][3]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - October wholesale volumes increased by 4.6%, and November saw a 12% increase, likely driven by rising demand for cured meat [1][4]. - If slaughter volumes in November significantly increase, it may alleviate supply pressures in December and January [4]. - The supply peak may shift to November, reducing pressure in the following months [4]. Price Trends and Forecasts - Despite current supply pressures, prices are in a weak rebound phase, with uncertainty surrounding post-holiday price predictions due to potential supply increases [5]. - The futures market indicates significant price increases for January and March 2025 contracts, influenced by ongoing epidemic impacts [5]. Impact of Epidemics - The epidemic has led to panic selling, but larger enterprises like Muyuan have achieved survival rates above 90%, indicating effective disease control measures [6]. - Smaller enterprises may not have seen similar improvements, highlighting a disparity in epidemic management capabilities [6]. Future Supply Predictions - The supply-demand relationship is expected to normalize in the coming months, with a peak in piglet numbers around September 2025, leading to potential supply adjustments in December [7]. - Large enterprises are reducing sow inventories in response to national policies, which will affect future fat pig supplies [7][8]. Policy and Capacity Reduction - Companies are responding positively to capacity reduction policies, with significant decreases in sow inventories noted in November [8][9]. - The execution of these policies among smallholders and mid-sized enterprises remains to be observed, as they play a crucial role in overall market supply [8][9]. Cost Structures and Profitability - Large enterprises have a complete cost of approximately 12.5 to 13 yuan per kilogram, while smaller farms face higher costs due to weaker epidemic control [10]. - The industry is cautious about future market conditions, with many companies hesitant to hedge significantly due to fears of unexpected capacity reductions [11]. Market Sentiment and Future Expectations - The sentiment within the industry is neither overly optimistic nor pessimistic, with cautious attitudes towards price levels around 14 yuan being considered high [11]. - The current market for piglets shows slight recovery, with prices expected to stabilize above 11 yuan in the future [15]. Inventory and Demand for Processed Products - Frozen product inventories have increased, but sales are hindered by low fresh meat prices, with significant slaughter volumes in October contributing to stockpiling [16]. - Demand for cured meat products is anticipated to rise as production ramps up in December and January [17]. Long-term Price Expectations - Expectations for the second half of 2026 suggest that product prices may exceed 14 yuan, but uncertainties remain regarding capacity adjustments and other influencing factors [18]. Overall Industry Outlook - The livestock industry is currently in a phase of capacity adjustment, with short-term price fluctuations expected to continue until around March or April 2026 [19]. - The overall industry fundamentals are improving, supported by ongoing government policies and market adjustments [19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the live hog futures industry is "Bottom shock, weakening" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The overall supply - demand pattern in the live hog market remains with an oversupply situation, lacking continuous upward momentum. The overall price center has shifted downward, but since the price is already at a low level, the downward space is limited and there is no possibility of a sharp decline for the time being [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review and Outlook - Last week, the national live hog spot price first rose and then fell, showing a weak trend. On December 1st, the national average live hog price was 11.48 yuan/kg, with prices rising in 26 provinces. The price in South China increased significantly by 0.2 - 0.4 yuan/kg due to the sporadic start of curing demand. However, the price continued to weaken subsequently. On the 3rd, the national average live hog price dropped to 11.27 yuan/kg, with prices falling in 23 provinces. On the 5th, the average price of foreign - ternary live hogs dropped to 11.30 yuan/kg. On the 6th, prices in many places fell below the previous lows, with prices in South and Southwest China continuing to decline, and only partial areas in North and Northeast China rebounding slightly. The north - south price difference widened to 2 yuan/jin. The overall price dropped last week, with a year - on - year decline of over 29% [1] - On the supply side, the weekly slaughter volume of the breeding end may continue to increase. Under the downward price trend, small - scale farmers are more willing to sell, leading to an increase in concentrated slaughter. So, the supply - side pressure is relatively large this week. On the demand side, the recovery of terminal consumption is slow. Although the slaughter rate and volume of slaughtering enterprises have both increased, the improvement in demand is still moderate, and it is difficult to form strong support in the short term [1] Factors to Watch - Changes in the inventory of breeding sows, the progress of consumption recovery, and policy regulation dynamics [2] Weekly Changes in Fundamental Data | Indicator | Unit | Latest Week | Previous Period | Weekly Change | Frequency | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Piglets | yuan/head | 216.9 | 215.95 | 0.95 | Weekly | | Weekly average slaughter weight | kg | 123.7 | 123.66 | 0.04 | Weekly | | Profit from purchasing piglets for breeding | yuan/head | - 243.07 | - 248.95 | 5.88 | Weekly | | Profit from self - breeding and self - raising | yuan/head | - 131.6 | - 141.09 | 9.49 | Weekly | | Slaughter start - up rate | % | 37.58 | 37.49 | - 0.09 | Weekly | [3]

Summary of the Conference Call on November Pig Production Data Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the pig farming industry in China, specifically discussing the production capacity and market trends as of November 2025 [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments Pig Production Capacity - The national breeding sow inventory decreased by 0.62% month-on-month in November 2025, but increased by 0.82% year-on-year. Compared to the peak in June, there was a reduction of 380,000 sows, primarily due to policy guidance, market expectations, and disease impacts [1][2]. - The average weight of pigs at slaughter in November was 124.66 kg, showing a slight increase of 0.09% month-on-month but a decrease of 0.83% year-on-year [1][6]. Market Prices and Profitability - The average price of pigs continued to decline, reaching 11.13 CNY/kg by December 5, 2025. This price level resulted in over 95% of enterprises operating at a loss, with losses of approximately 100 CNY per head for self-breeding and around 300 CNY per head for piglet fattening [1][5]. - The price is expected to remain below 12 CNY/kg before the Spring Festival due to sufficient supply and increased slaughtering pace in December [1][10]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of pigs in November was ample, with a decrease in large enterprise slaughtering but also a significant reduction in secondary fattening targets, which dropped by 71% [1][7][8]. - The demand in southern regions was weak due to higher temperatures and lower stocking intentions, contributing to the price decline [1][8]. Future Price Predictions - It is anticipated that pig prices will not exceed 12 CNY/kg before the Spring Festival, with a potential slight increase in mid-December due to increased stocking by downstream buyers and reduced slaughtering by farming groups [1][10]. Disease Impact - Recent outbreaks of pig diseases in regions like Shandong and Jiangsu have affected both small-scale and large farming groups, leading to a decrease in breeding sow inventory [1][4][11]. - The disease situation has worsened compared to the previous year, with a significant increase in incidence rates, particularly in the northern regions [1][21]. Financial Health of the Industry - The overall cash flow situation in the pig farming industry is poor, with losses per pig reaching 300 to 400 CNY since August 2025. Approximately 60% to 70% of farming companies are experiencing cash flow difficulties [1][18][19]. Cost Trends and Future Outlook - The cost of pig farming is expected to continue decreasing, primarily due to lower feed prices and the adoption of superior breeding stock, which enhances reproductive performance and reduces feed conversion ratios [1][23][24]. - The industry is likely to see a recovery in profitability by the second half of 2026 as production capacity decreases and demand increases during peak consumption seasons [1][15]. Additional Important Insights - The differences in data reporting between the Ministry of Agriculture and third-party organizations highlight the complexities in understanding market dynamics and the impact of policy measures on production capacity [1][12]. - The willingness of small and medium-sized farms to reduce production capacity is low, as they anticipate potential profits during peak demand periods [1][13]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the current state and future outlook of the pig farming industry in China.

Core Viewpoint - The domestic pig prices in China showed a trend of rising initially and then declining, with the weekly average price decreasing compared to the previous week [1] Price Trends - As of December 5, the price of live pigs (external three yuan) was 11.27 yuan per kilogram, which is nearly unchanged from 11.28 yuan per kilogram on November 28 [1] - The average price of live pigs for the week was 11.37 yuan per kilogram, down 1% from the previous week's average of 11.48 yuan per kilogram [1]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: "Research Report on Agricultural Products - Daily Report on Live Pigs" [1] - Date: December 2, 2025 [1][3] - Researcher: Chen Jiezheng [2] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Group 3: Core Views - The supply pressure of live pigs continues to increase, and the spot price has declined. The overall supply in the pork market remains sufficient, and the subsequent spot price is expected to be weak, with short - term phased support [3][4]. - The futures price of live pigs shows a slight shock trend, and the market is generally stable. In the short - term, the futures price may fluctuate, and in the medium - to - long - term, the downward pressure on the price is obvious, and the rebound space of the futures market is limited [4]. Group 4: Market Data Summary Spot Price - Today, the average spot price of live pigs remained unchanged at 11.36 yuan/kg compared to yesterday. Most regions' prices declined, with only Hunan and Guangdong seeing price increases of 0.03 yuan/kg and 0.2 yuan/kg respectively [3]. Futures Price - Futures contracts showed mixed trends. For example, LH01 decreased by 40 yuan to 11455 yuan, while LH03 increased by 50 yuan to 11255 yuan [3]. Breeding - related Prices - The price of piglets remained unchanged at 209 yuan this week compared to last week, and the price of sows decreased by 1 yuan to 1545 yuan [3]. Breeding Profits - The spot breeding profit for self - breeding and self - raising decreased by 12.09 yuan to - 147.99 yuan/head, and the profit for purchasing piglets decreased by 14.19 yuan to - 248.82 yuan/head [3]. Slaughter Data - The slaughter volume increased by 943 heads to 176225 heads [3]. Price Spreads - The price spreads between different futures contracts and different pig sizes changed slightly. For example, the LH7 - 9 spread increased by 25 yuan to - 895 yuan, and the spread between large pigs and standard pigs increased by 0.02 yuan to 0.43 yuan [3]. Group 5: Transaction Strategies - Unilateral: Wait and see [5] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [5] - Options: Sell the wide - straddle strategy [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the national live pig spot price showed a slow downward trend. From November 24th to 28th, the reference price dropped from 11.80 yuan/kg to 11.53 yuan/kg. The price of foreign three - yuan live pigs decreased significantly, with the average price on the 28th being 11.28 yuan/kg, a 7.54% week - on - week decline and a year - on - year decline of over 31% [1]. - On the supply side, there are diseases in some areas, increasing the supply. Slaughterhouses have smooth acquisitions, and the slaughter weight of southern farms is generally heavy, resulting in sufficient pork supply. On the demand side, the weather has not cooled down, there is no significant boost to demand, pickling and enema have not been concentrated, and the demand side has no support [1]. - The market supply - demand pattern of oversupply has not changed, lacking the power for continuous growth. It is expected that the live pig price will rise first and then fall this week, with the overall price center moving down [1]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review and Outlook - The live pig spot price declined last week. The reference price on November 24th was 11.80 yuan/kg, dropping to 11.53 yuan/kg on the 28th. The price of foreign three - yuan live pigs decreased significantly, with a 7.54% week - on - week decline and a year - on - year decline of over 31% [1]. - The supply is sufficient due to diseases in some areas and heavy slaughter weights in southern farms. The demand has no significant boost as the weather has not cooled down and pickling and enema have not been concentrated [1]. - The market supply - demand pattern remains oversupplied, and the price is expected to rise first and then fall this week, with the overall price center moving down [1]. Factors to Watch - Changes in the inventory of breeding sows, the progress of consumption recovery, and policy regulation dynamics [2]. Weekly Changes in Fundamental Data | Indicator | Unit | Latest Week | Previous Period | Weekly Change | Frequency | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Piglets | yuan/head | 215.95 | 210 | 5.95 | Weekly | | Weekly average slaughter weight | kg | 123.66 | 123.6 | 0.06 | Weekly | | Profit from purchasing piglets for breeding | yuan/head | - 248.95 | - 164.92 | - 84.03 | Weekly | | Profit from self - breeding and self - raising | yuan/head | - 141.09 | - 81.35 | - 59.74 | Weekly | | Slaughter start - up rate | % | 36 | 36.18 | - 0.18 | Weekly | [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply of live pigs in the market is relatively loose, and the situation of over - supply persists. It is expected that the short - term live pig price will have limited rebound. [5] - The price of corn continued to rise last week. Although the upward momentum may slow down, the price is still driven by factors such as farmers' reluctance to sell, increased procurement by the state reserve, and downstream enterprises' restocking. [8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Live Pigs - Futures: The LH2601 contract of live pig futures closed at 11,350 yuan/ton last week, a 3.73% decrease from the previous week's settlement price. [5] - Spot: The national average market price of outer - ternary live pigs was 11.74 yuan/kg, a week - on - week decrease of 0.22 yuan/kg. [5] - Profit: As of November 21, the profit of self - breeding and self - raising live pigs was - 135.9 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 21.09 yuan/head; the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding was - 234.63 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 28.99 yuan/head; the pig - grain ratio was 5.23, a week - on - week decrease of 0.15. [5] - Market situation: The national live pig spot price first declined and then stabilized last week. The supply was relatively abundant, and the resistance of the breeding side to low prices increased, but the overall pressure to sell remained. The terminal demand had not increased significantly, and the support from the demand side was limited. [5] Corn - Futures: The C2601 contract of corn futures first declined and then rose last week, closing at 2,195 yuan/ton, a 0.6% increase from the previous week's settlement price. [6] - Spot: The national average spot price of corn was 2,280.29 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 9.31 yuan/ton. The prices at ports such as Jinzhou Port, Bayuquan Port, and Guangdong Shekou Port all increased. [6] - Deep - processing consumption: From November 13 to 19, 2025, 149 major corn deep - processing enterprises consumed 138.31 tons of corn, a week - on - week decrease of 0.34 tons. The processing volume of corn starch enterprises decreased, and the weekly output of starch decreased, with the weekly operating rate dropping by 2.59%. The operating rate of the DDGS industry increased by 2.16%, and the weekly production increased by 3.21%. [7] - Inventory: As of November 19, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions decreased by 0.29%. As of November 21, the total corn inventory in the four northern ports was about 1.01 million tons, and the corn inventory in Guangdong Port was 714,000 tons. [7] - Market situation: The national corn spot price continued to rise last week. Logistics restrictions affected the supply of corn, and the arrival volume of deep - processing enterprises remained low, with the purchase price being stable and slightly stronger. The operating rate of the corn starch industry decreased slightly, while that of alcohol enterprises continued to rise. Feed enterprises had relatively high inventory and mainly purchased high - quality dry corn. The price increase may slow down in the future, and the short - term upper pressure levels are 2,210 - 2,220 yuan/ton. [8]