邮箱：gaojianfei@nzfco.com 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 猪价短期回调做多，中期关注多头机会 摘 要： 供需关系： 从供应端来看，下周养殖端正常出栏，规模企业出栏 进度完成尚可，二育和散户大体重猪源陆续在售，成交一 般。因此下周供应端或小幅增加。 从需求端来看，屠宰企业按需采购，二育少量进场。 五一假期过后，需求有缩减，尤其大猪。需求端或小幅减 少。 综合来看，均价重心无明显调整，生猪市场供应端出 栏或小幅增加（散户猪源），需求小幅减量，一方面二育 减少，此外五一节后需求减少，尤其大猪需求欠佳，因此 下周供应小幅增加，需求减少，价格或弱稳为主。 宁证期货投资咨询中心 期货交易咨询业务资格： 宁证期货投资咨询中心 期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1775 号 作者姓名：高剑飞 作者姓名：蒯三可 期货从业资格号：F0279818 期货交易咨询从业证号：Z0014742 证监许可【2011】1775 号 期货从业资格号：F3040522 期货投资咨询从业证号：Z0015369 邮箱：kuaisanke@nzfco.com 电话：025-52865121 生猪专题报告 1.生猪 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand situation of the pig market is expected to shift from short - term relative balance to looser, and the price is predicted to fluctuate weakly. The short - term supply pressure is moderate, but there is potential phased supply pressure, and the demand is cooling. It is recommended to hold short positions cautiously and set stop - losses [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - **Market Review**: The pig price fluctuated and adjusted, with the main contract rising 0.11% weekly [6][11]. - **Market Outlook**: On the supply side, the post - festival slaughter rhythm of farmers is slow, and the slaughter weight remains stable. However, the price of fat pigs is lower than that of standard pigs, increasing the risk of secondary fattening and weakening the enthusiasm for entry. The pressure from the postponed supply may gradually appear after mid - to late May. According to the pig breeding cycle, the sow production capacity is in an increasing cycle in the second and third quarters, and the medium - term supply pressure is increasing. On the demand side, the post - festival terminal demand declines, the sales speed of white - striped pigs slows down again, the slaughterhouse operating rate decreases, and there are still passive inventory - building phenomena in a few areas. Overall, the short - term supply pressure is general, but the potential phased supply pressure exists, and the demand cools down [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions cautiously and set stop - losses [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1 Futures Market - **Price Movement**: The futures fluctuated and adjusted this week, and the main contract rose 0.11% weekly [8][11]. - **Net Position and Warehouse Receipts**: The net short position in futures decreased, and there were 705 futures warehouse receipts [13]. 3.2.2 Spot Market - **Pig and Piglet Prices**: The national average pig price this week was 14.94 yuan/kg, down 0.01 yuan/kg from last week and 0.47% from last month. The average price of 15 - kg weaned piglets was 40.90 yuan/kg, unchanged from last week and last month [28]. - **Pork and Breeding Sow Prices**: As of April 30th, the national average pork price was 26.02 yuan/kg, down 0.08 yuan/kg from the previous week. The average market price of binary sows this week was 32.52 yuan/kg, up 0.01 yuan/kg from the previous week [33]. - **Pig - Grain Ratio**: As of the week of April 23, 2025, the pig - grain ratio was 6.68, down 0.03 from the previous week [38]. 3.3 Industry Situation 3.3.1 Upstream Situation - **Sow Inventory**: In March 2025, the inventory of reproductive sows was 40.39 million, a decrease of 270,000 from the previous month and an increase of 1.17% year - on - year, equivalent to 103.6% of the normal inventory. In April, according to Mysteel data, the inventory of reproductive sows in large - scale farms increased slightly by 0.36% month - on - month and 4.31% year - on - year, and that in small and medium - sized farms increased by 1.61% month - on - month and 10.15% year - on - year [43]. - **Pig Inventory**: In Q1 2023, the national pig inventory was 417.31 million. In April, according to Mysteel data, the inventory of commercial pigs in large - scale farms increased by 0.10% month - on - month and 6.28% year - on - year, while that in small and medium - sized farms decreased by 0.91% month - on - month but increased by 10.98% year - on - year [46]. - **Slaughter Volume and Weight**: In April, the slaughter volume of commercial pigs in large - scale farms increased by 4.46% month - on - month and 26.58% year - on - year, and that in small and medium - sized farms increased by 4.09% month - on - month and 74.89% year - on - year. The average slaughter weight remained unchanged from last week [49]. 3.3.2 Industry Profit - **Pig Breeding Profit**: As of May 9th, the breeding profit of purchased piglets was 58.46 yuan/head, an increase of 9.92 yuan/head from the previous week, and the breeding profit of self - bred and self - raised pigs was 84.33 yuan/head, a decrease of 0.71 yuan/head from the previous week [54]. - **Poultry Breeding Profit**: As of May 9th, the poultry breeding profit was - 0.30 yuan/head, and the weekly loss increased by 0.15 yuan/head [54]. 3.3.3 Domestic Market - **Pork Imports**: From January to March 2025, China imported 280,000 tons of pork, a year - on - year increase of 7.69%, but it was at a historically low level [59]. 3.3.4 Substitute Products - **White - Striped Chicken Price**: As of the week of May 9th, the price of white - striped chicken was 13.7 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.1 yuan/kg from the previous week [62]. - **Standard - Fat Pig Price Difference**: As of the week of May 8th, the average price difference between standard and fat pigs was 0.03 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.02 yuan/kg from the previous week [62]. 3.3.5 Feed Situation - **Feed Ingredient Prices**: As of May 8th, the spot price of soybean meal was 3,358.29 yuan/ton, a decrease of 186.28 yuan/ton from the previous week. As of May 9th, the corn price was 2,363.14 yuan/ton, an increase of 49.61 yuan/ton from the previous week [68]. - **Feed Index and Price**: As of May 9th, the closing price of the Dalian Commodity Exchange pig feed cost index was 948.95, a decrease of 0.26% from the previous week. The price of finishing pig compound feed was 3.37 yuan/kg, remaining unchanged from the previous week [72]. - **Feed Production**: As of March 2025, the monthly feed production was 27.772 million tons, an increase of 1.428 million tons year - on - year [76]. 3.3.6 CPI - As of March 2025, China's CPI decreased by 0.1% year - on - year, and the decline narrowed by 0.6 percentage points compared with the previous month [80]. 3.3.7 Downstream Situation - **Slaughterhouse Operating Rate and Inventory**: In the 19th week, the slaughterhouse operating rate was 28.54%, a decrease of 0.41 percentage points from the previous week and an increase of 0.35 percentage points year - on - year. The frozen product storage rate of key slaughterhouses remained unchanged from the previous week [83]. - **Slaughter Volume and Catering Consumption**: As of March 2025, the slaughter volume of designated pig slaughterhouses was 30.63 million, an increase of 40.7% from the previous month. In March 2025, the national catering revenue was 423.55 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.6% [88]. 3.3.8 Pig - Related Stocks - The report mentions the stock trends of Muyuan Co., Ltd. and Wens Co., Ltd., but no specific data is provided [89].

生猪日报 | 2025-05-09 另存为PDF 【期价震荡调整】 【市场动态】 1、5月8日，生猪注册仓单705手； 2、LH2507合约以期现回归、交割博弈为主，远月矛盾仍在积累盘面震荡调整； 3、主力合约（LH2509）今日增仓1245手，持仓约7.34万手，最高价13985元/ 吨，最低价13865元/吨，收盘于13910元/吨。 1、观点：短期猪价或震荡，中长期来看猪价或仍有新低可能； 2、核心逻辑： 1） 从母猪、仔猪数据看，2025年二三四季度生猪出栏量均充裕，猪价暂无大 涨基础； 2）二三季度需求对猪价的支撑偏弱，难以支持猪价有明显涨幅； 3）现下生猪出栏体重仍在增加，说明养殖端仍在累库，利空后市，若后面出现 集中降重，猪价或出现新低； 4）虽然我们认为中长期看现货仍有新低可能，但由于其不确定性较高，且短期 市场降重驱动尚不强烈，盘面价格处于相对合理区间，建议暂时观望。 作者： 【基本面分析】 1、能繁母猪存栏量看，3-12月生猪供应量有望逐月增加，但幅度有限。仔猪数 据看，2025年二三季度生猪出栏量整体震荡增加；需求端来看，上半年较下半 年相比属需求淡季，下半年属需求旺季； 2、 从历史情 ...

【生猪日报】出栏压力继续体现 价格整体偏弱运行 研究员：陈界正 期货从业证号： 大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 生猪日报 2025 年 4 月 29 日 F3045719 投资咨询证号： Z0015458 联系方式： chenjiezheng_qh@chinastock.c om.cn | | | | | 生猪价格日报 | | 2025/4/29 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 现货价格 | | | | | | | 今 日 | 昨 日 | 变 化 | | 今 日 | 昨 日 | 变 化 | | 河南（0） | 14.74 | 14.82 | -0.08 | 山 西 | 14.68 | 14.70 | -0.02 | | 湖北（0） | 14.48 | 14.53 | -0.05 | 辽 宁 | 14.55 | 14.53 | 0.02 | | 安徽（300） | 14.95 | 14.98 | -0.03 | 吉 林 | 14.48 | 14.45 | 0.03 | | 湖南（100） | 14.48 | 14.60 ...