1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall view of the report is that the price of live pigs will experience a shock adjustment [4]. - Based on sow and piglet data, the supply of live pigs will be abundant by December, making it difficult for pig prices to rise significantly [4]. - The price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs is expected to continue to strengthen seasonally, which will support pig prices to some extent [4]. - If the price remains weak, a negative cycle may form. If this cycle occurs, the pig price is expected to rebound at the end of the year, and investors can consider reverse arbitrage between the 11 - 01 contracts [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Dynamics - On October 14, the registered warehouse receipts of live pigs on the Dalian Commodity Exchange were 90 lots [2]. - There is currently no upward driving force for short - term spot prices, and attention should be paid to when the spot market shows oversold signals [2]. - On October 14, the LH2511 contract of live pigs reduced its position by 8,606 lots, with a position of approximately 48,700 lots. The highest price was 11,470 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 11,200 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 11,450 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the inventory of reproductive sows, the supply of live pigs in the fourth quarter may be similar to that in the third quarter. According to piglet data, the overall slaughter volume of live pigs in the third and fourth quarters of 2025 will increase oscillatingly. In terms of the demand side, consumption in the second half of the year is better than that in the first half [3]. - Historically, the price difference between fat and standard pigs may strengthen oscillatingly [3]. - The short - side logic includes: the slaughter weight has not decreased, the "inventory" pressure has not been fully released; the subsequent slaughter volume remains high; the demand from October to November is not strong enough to support pig prices. The long - side logic includes: the weight reduction by farmers in the early stage is beneficial for the future market; consumption is expected to gradually improve after the weather turns cold; although the subsequent slaughter volume will increase, the increase is limited [3]. 3.3 Strategy Suggestions - The view is shock adjustment [4]. - The core logic is that without considering early or delayed slaughter by farmers, the slaughter volume of live pigs is expected to increase monthly until December, so it is difficult for pig prices to rise significantly due to abundant supply. The price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs is expected to continue to strengthen seasonally, which will support pig prices. If the price remains weak, a negative cycle may form, and if so, the pig price is expected to rebound at the end of the year, and investors can consider reverse arbitrage between the 11 - 01 contracts (for reference only) [4]. 3.4 Market Overview - On October 14, the national average live pig slaughter price was 10.89 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.05 yuan/kg or 0.46% compared to the previous day. The slaughter price in Henan was 11.19 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.05 yuan/kg or 0.44%. The slaughter price in Sichuan remained unchanged at 10.47 yuan/kg [6]. - In terms of futures prices, all contracts showed an upward trend on October 14, with the 11 - contract increasing by 2.92% [6]. - The main basis in Henan was - 260 yuan/ton, a decrease of 375 yuan/ton or 326.09% compared to the previous day [6]. 3.5 Key Data Tracking - The report presents historical data trends of multiple indicators such as the national live pig slaughter price, sample enterprise slaughter volume, white - strip average price, corn national grain depot purchase average price, futures contract closing price, main contract basis in Henan, 11 - 01 contract price difference, and 01 - 03 contract price difference [7][9][10][12][13].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report anticipates that the price of live pigs will continue to decline. Although the price has temporarily stopped falling due to the price - holding sentiment of breeders and a small amount of secondary fattening and frozen - product storage, the supply pressure from breeders still exists. It is recommended to wait and see until the price stabilizes [2][22]. 3. Summary by Section 2. Supply Situation Analysis In October, the出栏 plans of large - scale breeding enterprises generally increased, and the market supply showed an upward trend. Breeders were still actively selling, and some enterprises accelerated the selling rhythm to avoid future risks. Slaughterhouses had smooth procurement, with sufficient pig supplies, keeping the pork supply loose [2][22]. 3. Demand Situation Analysis Terminal consumption weakened significantly, with a decline in household and catering procurement demand. The operating rate and slaughter volume of slaughterhouses decreased simultaneously, and the sales speed of白条 slowed down, continuously constraining the pork price [2][22]. 4. Cost - Profit Analysis The report does not provide specific content on cost - profit analysis other than showing relevant profit charts. 5. Market Outlook After continuous price drops, the price - holding sentiment of breeders emerged, and a small amount of secondary fattening and frozen - product storage provided support, causing the price to temporarily stop falling. However, the selling pressure of breeders remained, and the live - pig price was expected to decline further. It is advisable to wait and see until the price stabilizes [2][22].

Core Insights - The national average price of live pigs in China has shown a downward trend, with a current price of 11.35 yuan per kilogram, down by 0.31 yuan from the previous day [1] - The supply of meat has increased, as indicated by a 3.93% rise in the meat supply index in Chongqing [1] - The average price difference for external three-yuan pigs across 21 major regions has decreased to approximately 0.54 yuan per kilogram, which is below the average transportation cost of 0.51 yuan per kilogram [3] Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply has increased due to some group enterprises failing to meet pre-holiday slaughter plans, leading to a rise in pig outflow post-holiday [3] - Demand has weakened significantly after the holiday, with terminal sales slowing down, compounded by adverse weather conditions affecting consumption in both southern and northern regions [3] - The market is expected to maintain a weak and stable price trend in the near future [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint The national hog price is weakly stable. After continuous previous declines, market resistance has increased, local second - fattening inquiries have risen, and the decline in spot prices has slowed. In the short term, supply still exceeds demand. However, after continuous price drops, the price - holding sentiment of the breeding side is emerging. It is advisable to try short - term long positions. In the short term, attention should be paid to the changes in the slaughter rhythm of group farms and the demand recovery situation [2][21]. 3. Summary by Directory 1. Supply Situation Analysis The report includes charts such as the monthly trend chart of the inventory of breeding sows in sample enterprises (in ten thousand heads), the weekly trend chart of the average slaughter weight of national sample commercial hogs (in kilograms), and the inventory structure of commercial hogs by weight (in %) [5][6][9]. 2. Demand Situation Analysis The report analyzes demand through charts of the开工率 of key slaughtering enterprises (in %) and the frozen product storage capacity ratio of key slaughtering enterprises (in %) [12][15]. 3. Cost - Profit Analysis The report presents the self - breeding and self - raising breeding profit (in yuan per head) and the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding (in yuan per head) through relevant charts [17][19]. 4. Market Outlook The national hog price is weakly stable. After continuous previous declines, market resistance has increased, local second - fattening inquiries have risen, and the decline in spot prices has slowed. In the short term, supply still exceeds demand. However, after continuous price drops, the price - holding sentiment of the breeding side is emerging. It is advisable to try short - term long positions. In the short term, attention should be paid to the changes in the slaughter rhythm of group farms and the demand recovery situation [2][21].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The supply and demand of the domestic pig market are expected to increase this week, and the pig price is expected to bottom out and rebound, maintaining a range - bound pattern. The LH2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,000 - 13,400 [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - Fundamental: In September, the domestic market enters the peak season for supply and demand before the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day. Supply of pigs and pork is expected to increase this week. Demand is boosted by the approaching school season and long holiday, which also boosts market confidence. The market is expected to see an increase in both supply and demand, and the pig price will maintain a range - bound pattern. Attention should be paid to the changes in the group farms' slaughter rhythm and the secondary fattening market [10]. - Basis: The national average spot price is 12,960 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 2511 contract is 200 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is bearish [10]. - Inventory: As of June 30, the pig inventory was 424.47 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.4% and a year - on - year increase of 2.2%. As of the end of June, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.42 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.02% and a year - on - year increase of 4.2%, which is bearish [10]. - Disk: The price is below the 20 - day moving average and the direction is downward, which is bearish [10]. - Main position: The main position is net long, but the long position is decreasing, which is bullish [10]. - Expectation: The supply and demand of pigs are increasing recently. The pig price is expected to bottom out and rebound, maintaining a range - bound pattern. The LH2511 contract is expected to fluctuate between 13,000 - 13,400 [10]. 2. Recent News - China's tariff increase on pork imports from the US and Canada boosts market confidence. With the approaching of the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day, the supply and demand of pigs are increasing, and the spot price is in a range - bound pattern [12]. - The recent high - temperature weather has led to a short - term decline in pork demand. The spot price of pigs is oscillating weakly due to increased supply, but the decline space is limited due to the gradually increasing demand [12]. - The domestic pig breeding profit remains at a low level, and the short - term profit has deteriorated. The enthusiasm for slaughtering large pigs is good in the short term, and the increase in both supply and demand supports the short - term price expectations of pig futures and spot [12]. - The spot price of pigs may oscillate strongly before the National Day, and the futures will return to a range - bound pattern in the short term. Further observation of the growth of supply and demand is needed [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish: The domestic pig consumption has entered the peak season before the long holiday, and the room for further decline in the domestic pig spot price may be limited [13]. - Bearish: There is a pessimistic expectation in the domestic macro - environment due to the Sino - US tariff war, and the domestic pig inventory has increased year - on - year [13]. - Main Logic: The market focuses on the pig slaughter situation and fresh meat demand [13]. 4. Fundamental Data - A table shows the prices of pig futures, pig futures warrants, and the spot prices of external ternary pigs from September 8 to September 16 [14]. - There are also multiple graphs showing the trends of pig basis and spreads, spot prices of different pig specifications, supply - side indicators (such as binary sow prices, piglet prices, inventory, etc.), slaughter - end prices, slaughter profits, demand - side consumption trends, pig - grain ratios, and the historical trends of pig price increases and decreases, as well as the situations of pig storage and release [15][17][23] etc. 5. Position Data - Not provided in the document

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the overall price of live pigs across the country showed a downward trend. Due to high inventory and large supply, the price of live pigs is expected to continue to decline. The downward pressure on the futures market still exists, but the decline has slowed down [5]. - For trading strategies, it is recommended to short on rallies for near - month contracts, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and buy far - month call options [6]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Comprehensive Analysis & Trading Strategies Comprehensive Analysis - The overall price of live pigs across the country declined this week. The supply remains high as the scale enterprises increased their slaughter volume, and there are still many large - weight pigs in the market. The demand is average as the slaughter volume decreased and the frozen product inventory increased [5]. - In the futures market, the decline has slowed down, but there is still downward pressure due to the weak spot market [5]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Short on rallies for near - month contracts. - Arbitrage: Stay on the sidelines. - Options: Buy far - month call options [6]. 2. Data Chart & Logical Analysis 2.1 Live Pig Price - This week, the price of live pigs across the country showed a downward trend. In different regions, the price decline ranges from 0.15 to 0.9 yuan/kg. The price center has moved down due to the increased enthusiasm of scale enterprises for slaughter [11]. 2.2 Slaughter and Consumption Changes - **Slaughter**: The overall slaughter volume of live pigs increased this week. The scale enterprises increased their slaughter, while the ordinary farmers slowed down. The slaughter weight increased, and the supply pressure is expected to remain high [13]. - **Consumption**: The demand in the live pig market declined this week. Although the slaughter volume and frozen product inventory increased, the actual demand was average as the price decreased [13]. 2.3 Breeding Profit - As of the week ending September 12, the self - breeding and self - raising profit was 16.84 yuan/head, a decrease of 15.39 yuan/head from last week. The profit of purchasing piglets was - 161.93 yuan/head, a decrease of 13.53 yuan/head from last week. The breeding profit declined due to the falling price of live pigs [21]. 2.4 Sow and Piglet Prices - **Piglets**: The price of 7 - kg piglets was 294 yuan/head, a decrease of 29 yuan/head from last week. The price of 15 - kg piglets was 399 yuan/kg, a decrease of 27 yuan/head from last week. The enthusiasm for replenishing piglets was low [26]. - **Sows**: The price of sows was 1592 yuan/head, a decrease of 2 yuan/head from last week. The ratio of culled sows to commercial pigs rebounded, and the culling was normal [26]. - **Fertile Sow Inventory**: According to Yongyi, the fertile sow inventory increased slightly in August, with the comprehensive sample increasing by 0.07% and the scale enterprises by 0.02%. According to Ganglian, the inventory decreased by 0.8% in August, with the scale enterprises decreasing by 0.83% and the small and medium - sized farmers by 0.09% [28].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The supply side shows that farms have high enthusiasm for slaughtering, strict transportation inspections, and low enthusiasm for second - fattening. Slaughterhouses can easily acquire supplies, resulting in sufficient pork production capacity [2][20] - The demand side indicates that there is no obvious positive news at the terminal. Slaughterhouses have no intention of making frozen products, maintain a high fresh - sales rate, with little change in slaughter volume, and pork consumption continues to be weak [2][20] - Overall, the slaughter pressure on the breeding side remains high, terminal demand has not improved, there is little second - fattening, supply exceeds demand, pig prices have reached a new low in recent years, and prices are more likely to fall than rise [2][20] Summary by Directory 1. Supply Situation Analysis - Farms have high enthusiasm for slaughtering, strict transportation inspections, and low enthusiasm for second - fattening, leading to smooth acquisition of supplies by slaughterhouses and sufficient pork production capacity [2][20] 2. Demand Situation Analysis - There is no obvious positive news at the terminal. Slaughterhouses have no intention of making frozen products, maintain a high fresh - sales rate, and there is little change in slaughter volume, with pork consumption remaining weak [2][20] 3. Cost - Profit Analysis - Not elaborated in the provided text 4. Market Outlook - The supply side has high slaughter enthusiasm from farms, strict transportation inspections, and low second - fattening enthusiasm, resulting in sufficient supplies. The demand side has no obvious positive news, high fresh - sales rate, and little change in slaughter volume. Supply exceeds demand, pig prices are at a new low in recent years, and prices are more likely to fall than rise [2][20]

Summary of the Conference Call on the Swine Industry in August 2025 Industry Overview - The report focuses on the swine industry in China, specifically analyzing the data and trends for August 2025 regarding pig prices, production capacity, and profitability [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments Price Trends - The average price of live pigs in August 2025 dropped to 13.57 CNY/kg, marking the lowest point of the year, down from a peak of 16.36 CNY/kg at the beginning of the year, reflecting significant market pressure [1][2]. - The monthly average price for August was reported at 13.77 CNY/kg, a decrease of 5.36% from July and a 32.27% decline year-on-year [2]. Production Capacity - Sample data from 196 enterprises indicated a 3.65% month-on-month increase in pig slaughtering volume and a 23.32% year-on-year increase [3][4]. - The breeding sow inventory showed a slight month-on-month decline of 1.11%, but a year-on-year increase of 5.38%, indicating ongoing capacity adjustments in the industry [5]. Profitability - The profitability for self-breeding and self-raising operations fell to an average of 63.7 CNY per head, a staggering decrease of 62.51% month-on-month and 92.2% year-on-year [8]. - Losses were reported in piglet fattening, with an average loss of 28.35 CNY per head, reflecting a significant decline in profitability [8]. Market Expectations - The price of 7 kg piglets averaged 393.05 CNY per head in August but dropped to 340.92 CNY by the end of the month, with expectations for further declines in September and October due to seasonal factors [6][7]. - The anticipated price for piglets could fall to around 200 CNY per head in the coming months, which may lead to a further reduction in the breeding sow inventory [7]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Daily slaughter rates increased to an average of 167,200 pigs in August, a year-on-year increase of 25.25% [13]. - The supply of pigs is expected to continue increasing in September, which may exert downward pressure on prices [14]. Cost Factors - Feed costs, particularly for soymeal and corn, have remained relatively low, providing some support for breeding profitability despite the drop in pig prices [9]. - The average cost of raising pigs for large enterprises is around 12 to 13 CNY/kg, while smaller enterprises face costs close to 13 CNY/kg, indicating a challenging profitability landscape [25]. Future Projections - The fourth quarter is expected to see continued increases in pig supply, with potential price rebounds due to seasonal demand around the holidays [16][23]. - The highest weekly price forecast for the end of the year is between 14.5 to 15 CNY/kg, with the lowest potentially dropping below 13.5 CNY/kg [23]. Industry Challenges - The industry is facing challenges related to disease outbreaks, particularly in southern regions, which could impact supply and pricing dynamics in the coming months [20]. - The government's target to reduce breeding sow numbers by 1 million heads is being implemented, but the pace of reduction varies among enterprises [18][21]. Additional Important Insights - The weight of pigs at transaction averaged 123.87 kg in August, showing a slight decline, which has implications for market pricing [10]. - The price difference between fat and standard pigs increased, indicating market adjustments in response to supply and demand shifts [11]. - The reduction in secondary fattening and restocking activities reflects cautious market sentiment regarding future price expectations [12]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the swine industry, highlighting the current challenges, market dynamics, and future expectations.

Group 1: Report Core Views - Northern regional pig prices have been rising continuously. The reduction in the quantity of pigs sold by enterprises has driven up pig prices, with the increase exceeding expectations. The enthusiasm of individual farmers and second - fattening operators to sell pigs has increased, mainly to digest large - weight pig sources, and the price has been stable with limited changes. Slaughterhouse slaughter volume has increased steadily but slowly due to the reduction in enterprise supply [2]. - Most southern markets have seen rising prices. The limited quantity of pigs sold by breeding enterprises has reduced the supply, supporting the market price increase. Attention should be paid to the changes in the enterprise - side slaughter rhythm in recent days [2]. - The off - season supply has ended, and there may be a pattern of both supply and demand increasing in September. However, the weight - loss effect of pig enterprises in the early stage is obvious, which may reduce the supply pressure in September. Moreover, the price difference between standard and fat pigs has always maintained a certain profit for raising large pigs, so there is always room for second - fattening to enter the market [3] Group 2: Data Presented in the Report - The report presents data on various aspects of the pig industry, including the average price of pig slaughter, the seasonal number of pig warehouse receipts, the impact of the number of breeding sows on pig prices 10 months later, the comparison between national and Henan pig prices, the change in pig inventory structure, the average weight of pig slaughter, the PSY production index of breeding sows, the cold - storage rate of frozen pork, the average price of culled sows, pig slaughter volume, the number of culled breeding sows, the seasonal profit of purchased pigs, the seasonal profit of self - raised pigs, the seasonal gross profit of pig slaughter, the开工率 of key pig slaughter enterprises, and the seasonal average price of piglets [4][5][6]

Core Viewpoint - The average price of external three yuan pigs in China has dropped to 13.82 yuan per kilogram as of August 21, reflecting a 4.2% month-on-month decline and a 33% year-on-year decrease, primarily due to weak demand and market sentiment [1]. Price Trends - The average pig price in many northern regions has fallen below 13 yuan per kilogram, entering a "6 yuan era" for average prices per jin [1]. - Short-term outlook indicates that pig prices will continue to fluctuate at low levels, with pressure from market supply and demand remaining weak [1]. Market Dynamics - The expected improvement in consumption due to cooler weather may provide some marginal support, but the overall supply-demand imbalance is unlikely to change significantly [1]. - The industry is entering a phase of efficiency competition, with potential adjustments in production capacity expected to lead to a turning point in pig output by mid-2026, shifting from growth to decline [1]. Future Outlook - The pig price is anticipated to transition into a new cycle characterized by "small fluctuations and stable profitability" [1].