Core Viewpoint - The overall trend of pig prices has declined in June 2025, impacting the sales performance of major listed pig companies in China [1][2][3] Group 1: Sales Performance of Major Companies - Muyuan Foods reported a June average selling price of 14.08 CNY/kg, a year-on-year decrease of 20.59% and a month-on-month decrease from 14.52 CNY/kg [1][2] - Wens Foodstuff Group's June average selling price was 14.39 CNY/kg, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 1.98% and a year-on-year decrease of 20.50% [1][2] - New Hope reported a June average selling price of 14.18 CNY/kg, with a month-on-month decrease of 2.81% and a year-on-year decrease of 21.53% [1][2] Group 2: Sales Volume and Revenue - Muyuan Foods sold 7.019 million pigs in June, a year-on-year increase of 58.35%, generating a revenue of 12.799 billion CNY, up 27.65% [2] - Wens Foodstuff Group sold 3.0073 million pigs, a year-on-year increase of 28.93%, with a revenue of 4.920 billion CNY, down 5.40% [2] - New Hope sold 1.33 million pigs, a year-on-year increase of 3.38%, with a revenue of 1.871 billion CNY, down 19.14% [2] Group 3: Market Outlook - The decline in pig prices is expected to impact company performance, but the second half of 2025 is anticipated to perform better than expected [3] - According to a report by招商证券, the overall pig price is expected to stabilize with support at the bottom, and the second half of the year may see better-than-expected prices due to limited supply growth [3] - 卓创资讯 forecasts that the average monthly price from July to December 2025 will range between 13.76 CNY/kg and 15.07 CNY/kg, with demand expected to decrease initially before increasing [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report suggests that the pig price will be in a state of shock adjustment. The supply of live pigs is expected to increase monthly until December, making it difficult for the pig price to rise significantly. However, the demand side also provides some support, preventing the pig price from falling significantly. It is not recommended to chase the long position [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Dynamics - On July 2, the registered warehouse receipts of live pigs were 450 lots. The LH2509 contract had a significant increase due to the continuous rise of the spot price. The main contract (LH2509) increased its positions by 5,729 lots today, with a position of about 83,900 lots, the highest price was 14,375 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 13,880 yuan/ton, and it closed at 14,340 yuan/ton [4]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the number of fertile sows, the supply of live pigs from March to December is expected to increase monthly, but the increase is limited. From the perspective of piglet data, the slaughter volume of live pigs in the second and third quarters of 2025 will generally increase in a volatile manner. The first half of the year is the off - season for demand, while the second half is the peak season [2]. - From the historical situation and current fundamentals, the fat - standard difference may be adjusted in a volatile manner [2]. - The short - side logic includes slow weight reduction in the breeding end, incomplete release of supply pressure, continuous increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and limited support of demand for pig prices as the second and third quarters are not the consumption peak season. The long - side logic includes the room for increasing frozen product inventory, strong resilience of spot prices, limited increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and the gradual entry into the consumption peak season in the third and fourth quarters [2]. 3.3 Strategy Suggestions - The view is shock adjustment. The core logic is that the slaughter volume of live pigs may increase monthly until December, so it is difficult for the pig price to rise significantly under sufficient supply. The current "weight reduction - stable pig price" relationship in the spot market indicates that the demand side also supports the pig price, and it is difficult for the pig price to fall significantly. The 2509 contract is almost at par with the price trough, and the recent rise in pig prices may be affected by the low slaughter volume of the breeding end. If the slaughter returns to normal, the rise in pig prices is likely to be unsustainable, so it is not recommended to chase the long position [3]. 3.4 Market Overview - On July 2, the national average live pig slaughter price was 15.3 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.22 yuan/kg or 1.46% compared with the previous day. The slaughter prices in Henan and Sichuan were 15.45 yuan/kg and 14.73 yuan/kg respectively, with increases of 0.16 yuan/kg (1.05%) and 0.26 yuan/kg (1.8%) [5]. - For futures contracts, the 09 contract had the largest increase of 3.43%, while the 07 contract had the smallest increase of 0.18%. The main contract basis in Henan decreased by 315 yuan/ton, a decrease of 22.11% [5]. 3.5 Key Data Tracking - The content provides historical data charts of national live pig slaughter prices, sample enterprise slaughter volumes, white - strip average prices, corn national grain depot purchase average prices, futures contract closing prices in the recent 180 days, the basis of the main live pig contract in Henan, the 09 - 11 contract spread, and the 11 - 01 contract spread, but specific numerical summaries are not further provided [6][7][9][10][13].

Report Overview - Report Title: "Pig Daily Report - July 2, 2025" [2] - Researcher: Chen Jiezheng [3] Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The supply side of the pig market has tightened, leading to an accelerated increase in prices. The overall supply pressure has decreased due to reduced sales motivation from large - scale enterprises, decreased inventory of ordinary farmers after a round of concentrated sales, and general enthusiasm for secondary fattening sales [4]. - Although the futures market has risen significantly, the substantial change in the fundamental situation is limited. The significant increase in the futures market is mainly a reflection of expectations for future price increases, and the room for a large - scale increase is expected to be limited. The inter - month spread of the futures market is expected to be mainly volatile and strong [6]. Summary by Content Spot Market - Spot prices in various regions showed an overall upward trend. The average price increased from 14.60 yuan/kg yesterday to 14.87 yuan/kg today, with an increase of 0.27 yuan/kg [4]. - The supply side has tightened. Large - scale enterprises have less motivation to sell, ordinary farmers' inventory has decreased, and the enthusiasm for secondary fattening sales is average. The overall weight of pigs for sale has decreased, and future market pressure may still exist [4]. Futures Market - Futures prices of various contracts showed an upward trend. For example, LH09 increased by 475 yuan from 13865 yuan yesterday to 14340 yuan today [4]. - The futures market's significant increase is mainly due to expectations of future price increases. The room for a large - scale increase is limited, and the inter - month spread is expected to be mainly volatile and strong [6]. Breeding and Slaughter - Piglet prices remained at 431 yuan this week, and sow prices remained at 1621 yuan. The self - breeding and self - raising profit increased from 19.40 yuan/head yesterday to 50.25 yuan/head today, and the profit from purchasing piglets increased from - 186.79 yuan/head yesterday to - 131.71 yuan/head today [4]. - The slaughter volume decreased from 138670 heads yesterday to 136895 heads today, a decrease of 1775 heads [4]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: Mainly range - bound [7]. - Arbitrage: LH91 long spread [7]. - Options: Wait and see [7]

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in live pig futures prices is attributed to a tightening supply and positive market sentiment for the upcoming peak season in August and September, with prices rebounding over 5% from previous lows [1][4]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The market is experiencing a tightening supply due to factors such as reduced large pig availability and increased frozen product inventory, which supports pig prices [1]. - Analysts note that the sentiment among small-scale farmers is to hold onto pigs in anticipation of higher prices in late July to August, leading to a decrease in supply [1][2]. - The overall pig supply is expected to increase gradually throughout the year, but short-term supply may be limited due to factors like piglet diarrhea outbreaks [4][5]. Price Trends - The average price of piglets has dropped to 36.91 yuan per kilogram, a decrease of 1.8% week-on-week and 16.7% year-on-year, indicating a cautious market [2]. - The price of 15 kg piglets has fallen from 670 yuan per head in mid-April to 530 yuan currently, primarily due to high costs and low seasonal demand [3]. Profitability and Cost Factors - Current breeding profits are generally positive, although there is a structural divide where some farmers face losses due to high costs of purchased piglets [2][4]. - Rising costs of feed ingredients like corn and soybean meal may impact cash flow for farmers in the latter half of the year [2]. Future Outlook - The market is expected to see a significant increase in piglet supply in September and October, which may exert downward pressure on prices [4]. - The current price increase is seen as temporary, with expectations that the market will transition from inventory accumulation to depletion, potentially leading to price declines in the fourth quarter [4][5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report The supply in the pig market is sufficient, with an increase in the number of pigs for sale from the breeding side. The demand has entered the off - season due to rising temperatures, and the slaughtering enterprises' operation rate has room to decline seasonally. Overall, the pig market has no obvious boost and is expected to maintain a weak trend [2]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Pig Futures and Spot Prices - Futures: LH2507 closed at 13090, down 115 or - 0.9%; LH2509 (the main contract) closed at 13460, down 145 or - 1.1%; LH2511 closed at 13335, down 75 or - 0.6% [2][4]. - Spot: The national average commodity pig slaughter price was 14.31 yuan/kg, down 0.08 yuan or - 0.6%; the price in Henan was 14.4 yuan/kg, down 0.12 yuan or - 0.8% [2][4]. 3.2 Monthly Spread, Basis, and Warehouse Receipts - Spread: The 2509 - 2507 spread was 370, down 30; the 2511 - 2509 spread was - 125, up 70 [11]. - Basis: The basis for July was 830, down 485; the basis for September was 460, down 455 [11]. - Warehouse receipts: The number of pig warehouse receipts was 475, an increase of 475 [11]. 3.3 Inventory and Inventory Structure - Piglet market: The average price of weaned piglets was 486.19 yuan/head, down 19.38 yuan/head from last week. The piglet market continued to be weak, and the enthusiasm for replenishment declined. The average price of 50KG binary sows was 1641 yuan/head, remaining flat in recent weeks, with low market replenishment enthusiasm [19]. - Commodity pig inventory: It is expected that the inventory of commodity pigs in June may decrease, and the inventory of large pigs over 140 kg has decreased [19]. 3.4 Standard - Fat Price Spread - National average: The weekly average standard - fat price spread was - 0.05 yuan/kg, 0.04 yuan/kg wider than last week. The prices of both standard and fat pigs decreased, with an increase in the supply of standard pigs and restricted movement of fat pigs between regions [23]. - Future trend: As the temperature rises, the demand for fat pigs will be further limited, and the standard - fat price spread may narrow [23]. 3.5 Slaughtering End - Slaughtering operation rate: It was 28.9%, down 0.45 percentage points from last week. The market demand declined, and the operation rate of slaughtering enterprises is expected to continue to decline [26]. - Fresh - meat sales rate: The fresh - meat sales rate of key slaughtering enterprises was 88.36%, down 0.89 percentage points from last week, with slower fresh - meat sales [26]. - Frozen - meat storage rate: The frozen - meat storage rate of domestic key slaughtering enterprises was 17.32%, a slight increase of 0.04%. The trading volume of frozen meat was slow, and there was still involuntary storage in some areas [26]. 3.6 White - Striped Pork and Wholesale Market There is no clear summary information about white - striped pork and the wholesale market in the report, only some price and arrival - volume data are presented. 3.7 Profit and Cost - Self - breeding and self - raising: The weekly average profit was 94.98 yuan/head, an increase of 3.21 yuan/head from last week. - Purchasing piglets for breeding: The weekly average profit was 39.50 yuan/head, an increase of 3.21 yuan/head from last week. The improvement in profit was mainly driven by the decline in feed costs and the relatively stable pig prices [35]. 3.8 Market Information Summary - Supply: Some enterprises accelerated the slaughter of large - weight pigs, and the overall supply in June increased, with a loose market supply [38]. - Demand: As the temperature rises, it has entered the consumption off - season, and there is no holiday boost. The slaughtering volume still has room to decline [38]. - Inventory: The storage capacity of slaughtering enterprises is at a low level, and some unsold products are involuntarily stored [38]. - Policy: The "Administrative Measures for the License of Breeding Livestock and Poultry Production and Operation" will be implemented on July 1, 2025 [38]. - African swine fever: There are sporadic epidemic situations in some southern regions [38]. - Market sentiment: The overall sentiment is pessimistic due to large supply and weak demand [38].

Report Overview - Report Title: "2025.06.06 - Weekly Report on the Pig Market: Price Fluctuation and Weakening Basis" [2] - Researcher: Zhang Xin - Report Type: Weekly Market Report 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The pig market is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, leading to a decline in pig prices to around 14 yuan/kg, and the short - term price is expected to remain weak. However, the futures market may have digested the expectations, with a smaller decline than the spot market, resulting in a weakening basis and a fluctuating adjustment trend. The recommended strategy is to wait and see or conduct light - position rolling short - selling operations on rebounds [7][8]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Weekly Highlights - Strategy: Wait and see or conduct light - position rolling short - selling operations on rebounds [7] - Market Review: Pig prices were weak, with the main contract down 1.07% weekly [8] - Outlook: Supply is increasing in the short and medium term, while demand is in the seasonal off - season, making it difficult to support prices [8] 3.2 Futures Market - Price Movement: Futures were weak, with the main contract down 1.07% weekly [12] - Net Position: The net short position of the top 20 futures holders decreased, with 475 futures warehouse receipts (an increase of 475 from last week) [17] 3.3 Spot Market - Basis: The basis of the July contract was 910 yuan/ton, and that of the September contract was 540 yuan/ton [22] - Pig and Piglet Prices: The national average pig price was 14.638 yuan/kg, down 0.24 yuan/kg from last week and 3.36% from last month. The average price of 15 - kg weaned piglets was 38.14 yuan/kg, down 2.52 yuan/kg from last week and 6.75% from last month [29] - Pork and Sow Prices: The national pork market price was 25.60 yuan/kg, down 0.08 yuan/kg from the previous week. The average price of binary sows was 32.52 yuan/kg, down 0.01 yuan/kg from the previous week [33] - Pig - Grain Ratio: The pig - grain ratio stopped falling and stabilized but was below the break - even point [37] 3.4 Upstream Supply - Sows: In April 2025, the inventory of breeding sows was 40380000, slightly decreasing from the previous month. In May, the inventory of large - scale farms and small and medium - sized farms increased slightly [42] - Pigs: In the first quarter, the pig inventory increased year - on - year, and in May, it increased month - on - month according to institutional data [45] - Slaughter: In May, the slaughter volume of large - scale and small and medium - sized farms decreased month - on - month, and the average slaughter weight decreased slightly [48] 3.5 Industry Situation - Breeding Profits: As of June 6, the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding was a loss of 120.8 yuan/head, and the profit of self - breeding and self - raising was 33.83 yuan/head. The profit of poultry breeding was a loss of 0.44 yuan/head, with a reduced loss compared to the previous week [51] - Import: From January to April 2025, the cumulative import of pork was 360000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.88% but at a historically low level [57] - Substitutes: The price of white - striped chickens decreased, and the standard - fat price difference decreased month - on - month [60] - Feed: The price of soybean meal decreased, the price of corn increased, the Dalian Commodity Exchange pig feed index rose, the spot pig feed price remained unchanged, and the feed production decreased year - on - year [66][69][74] - CPI: As of April 2025, the year - on - year CPI decrease was 0.1%, with a narrowing decline [77] 3.6 Downstream Demand - Slaughter: The slaughter enterprise's operating rate decreased, and the frozen product storage capacity increased slightly. In April, the slaughter volume increased, and the catering consumption recovered year - on - year [80][85] 3.7 Pig - Related Stocks - Mentioned stocks include Muyuan Co., Ltd. and Wens Co., Ltd., but no in - depth analysis was provided [86]

研究员：陈界正 期货从业证号： 大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 生猪日报 2025 年 5 月 22 日 【生猪日报】供应压力仍存 价格偏弱运行 今 日 昨 日 变 化 今 日 昨 日 变 化 河南（0） 14.35 14.59 -0.24 山 西 14.25 14.55 -0.3 湖北（0） 14.14 14.43 -0.29 辽 宁 14.10 14.29 -0.19 安徽（300） 14.52 14.77 -0.25 吉 林 14.03 14.24 -0.21 湖南（100） 14.21 14.28 -0.07 黑龙江 14.00 14.20 -0.2 四川（-200） 14.14 14.27 -0.13 福 建 14.72 14.72 0 江西（100） 14.37 14.37 0.00 广 东 15.17 15.18 -0.01 山东（0） 14.6 14.85 -0.25 广西(-200) 14.13 14.11 0.02 江苏（500） 14.65 14.87 -0.22 云 南 14.37 14.37 0 河北（-100） 14.38 14.63 -0.25 贵 州 14.17 14.27 - ...

Supply Side - The increase in supply is driven by the rise in the number of pigs being marketed, as farmers are increasing their slaughter rates due to lower prices for fattened pigs compared to benchmark pigs [1] - The second and third quarters are expected to see an increase in sow productivity, leading to greater supply pressure in the medium term [1] Demand Side - Terminal demand is declining, with slower sales of pork and a decrease in slaughterhouse operating rates; however, some regions are still experiencing passive inventory accumulation [1] - There may be a temporary increase in demand due to preparations for the upcoming Dragon Boat Festival [1] Price Movement - Overall, the increase in supply from farmers is causing prices to fluctuate and trend weakly, with the live pig futures contract (2509) down by 0.26% and trading below the moving average [1] - The market is advised to monitor the situation regarding the number of pigs being marketed, as prices may face further downward pressure [1]

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 生猪日报 2025 年 5 月 15 日 | | | | | 生猪价格日报 | | 2025/5/15 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 现货价格 | | | | | | | 今 日 | 昨 日 | 变 化 | | 今 日 | 昨 日 | 变 化 | | 河南（0） | 14.96 | 15.06 | -0.10 | 山 西 | 14.79 | 14.84 | -0.05 | | 湖北（0） | 14.61 | 14.61 | 0.00 | 辽 宁 | 14.55 | 14.59 | -0.04 | | 安徽（300） | 15.08 | 15.15 | -0.07 | 吉 林 | 14.51 | 14.54 | -0.03 | | 湖南（100） | 14.34 | 14.35 | -0.01 | 黑龙江 | 14.38 | 14.39 | -0.01 | | 四川 （-200） | 14.47 | 14.57 | -0.10 | 福 建 | 14.78 | 14.92 | -0.14 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core View - The report suggests short - term callback for long positions in pig prices and focuses on long - term bullish opportunities. Next week, the supply of the pig market may increase slightly while the demand may decrease slightly, so the price is likely to remain weakly stable [2][24]. 3. Summary by Section 2. Supply Situation Analysis - Next week, the farming side will have normal slaughter. Large - scale enterprises' slaughter progress is acceptable. Second - fattening and large - weight pigs from individual farmers are being sold gradually with average transactions. The supply side may increase slightly [2][24]. 3. Demand Situation Analysis - Slaughtering enterprises purchase as needed, and there is a small amount of second - fattening entry. After the May Day holiday, demand has decreased, especially for large pigs. The demand side may decrease slightly [2][24]. 4. Cost Profit Analysis - There is no specific analysis content in the provided text. 5. Market Outlook - The supply side may see a slight increase in slaughter (from individual farmers), and the demand side will experience a slight reduction. On one hand, second - fattening has decreased, and on the other hand, demand has declined after the May Day holiday, especially for large pigs. The price is likely to remain weakly stable [2][24].