Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints The report focuses on the sugar market, covering domestic and international production, consumption, import data, and price trends. It also mentions the expected supply shortage in the 25/26 global sugar season and the anticipated decline in sugar yield and increase in production costs in Guangxi for the 25/26 season [1][2][3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Price Data**: The raw sugar price is 16.05 cents/pound, down 0.09; the mainstream spot price is 5930 yuan/ton, unchanged; the futures main contract price is 5562 yuan/ton, down 37 [1]. - **Spread Data**: The 91 spread is 28 yuan/ton, up 16; the 15 spread is 30 yuan/ton, down 9; the mainstream spot basis is 368 yuan/ton, up 37 [1]. Macro and Industry News - **International**: Conab lowered Brazil's 25/26 sugar production forecast to 44.5 million tons from 45.9 million tons. India's monsoon precipitation was 6.7% higher than the long - period average on September 1. Brazil exported 3.59 million tons in July, a 5% year - on - year decrease. China imported 740,000 tons of sugar in July, an increase of 320,000 tons [1]. - **Domestic**: CAOC predicted that the domestic sugar production in the 24/25 season would be 11.16 million tons, consumption 15.8 million tons, and imports 5 million tons; for the 25/26 season, production would be 11.2 million tons, consumption 15.9 million tons, and imports 5 million tons. As of May 25, the 24/25 season's national sugar production was 11.16 million tons, an increase of 1.2 million tons, and sales were 8.11 million tons, an increase of 1.52 million tons, with a sales rate of 72.7%. As of July 25, the 24/25 season's cumulative sugar imports were 3.24 million tons, a decrease of 340,000 tons. In the 25/26 season, the market expects a decline in Guangxi's sugar yield and an increase in production costs [1][2]. International Market - ISO first predicted a global sugar supply shortage of 23,000 tons in the 25/26 season and 488,000 tons in the 24/25 season. - As of August 1, 25/26, the cumulative sugarcane crushing volume in Brazil's central - southern region decreased by 8.6 percentage points year - on - year, with cumulative sugar production of 19.27 million tons, a decrease of 1.62 million tons, and the cumulative MIX was 52.06%, a year - on - year increase of 2.93 percentage points. - ISMA/NFCSF predicted that India's total sugar production in the 25/26 season would be 34.9 million tons, an increase of 5.4 million tons from the 24/25 season. - OCSB data showed that Thailand's cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season was 10.08 million tons, an increase of 1.27 million tons [3]. Trend Intensity The sugar trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [4].

Report Overview - Report Name: Sugar Industry Weekly Report - Report Date: August 24, 2025 - Author: Xu Liang (Z0002220) - Reviewer: Tang Yun (Z0002422) 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic sugar market has shown a strong trend recently, trading on the low carry - over inventory of domestic sugar and the expected reduction in production in Guangxi in the new crushing season. The market is less responsive to the increase in imported sugar and syrup in July. The downward pressure on the market is insufficient, and it may trade on the reduction in production in Brazil and the lower - than - expected production in India and Thailand in the future. In the short term, SR2601 shows strong momentum and may have a significant - scale market trend [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Information Domestic Market - Spot quotes: The platform quote of intermediaries in Nanning is 6,000 yuan/ton, and the quote of intermediaries in Kunming is 5,770 - 5,940 yuan/ton. In July, China imported 744,300 tons of sugar, a month - on - month increase of 75.29% and a year - on - year increase of 76.44%, with 644,400 tons from Brazil. In July, China imported 159,700 tons of syrup and premixed powder, a year - on - year decrease of 68,600 tons but a continued month - on - month increase, reaching a new high for the year [3]. International Market - The price of Zhengzhou sugar futures has maintained a volatile and slightly stronger pattern. In Brazil, due to continuous drought, the sugar content of sugarcane is at a historically low level, and the sugar - making ratio remains high because the ethanol - to - sugar price ratio is low. In India, although local sources expect a significant increase in production, meteorological monitoring shows that the cumulative rainfall in Uttar Pradesh and Tamil Nadu is low, and the final production may be lower than expected [4]. Sugar Futures and Spot Price and Spread Futures - As of August 25, 2025, the closing prices and price changes of various sugar futures contracts are provided, such as SR01 at 5,670 yuan with a 0% change, SR03 at 5,648 yuan with a 0% change, etc. The price spreads between different contracts are also given, like SR01 - 05 at 39 yuan with no change [5]. Spot - As of August 22, 2025, the spot prices and price changes in different regions are presented, including Nanning at 5,960 yuan with no change, and the price spreads between regions, such as the Nanning - Liuzhou spread at 10 yuan with no change [6]. Basis - As of August 22, 2025, the basis and its changes between Nanning, Kunming and different futures contracts are provided, for example, the Nanning - SR01 basis is 300 yuan with a decrease of 16 yuan [7]. Other Information - Brazil's foreign trade secretariat export data shows that in the first week of August, 1.094 million tons of sugar were exported, with an average daily export of 182,300 tons, a 2% increase compared to August of the previous year. India plans to allow sugar exports in the new crushing season starting in October as the sugarcane crop is expected to have a good harvest. Unica data shows that in late July, the central - southern region of Brazil crushed 50.217 million tons of sugarcane, a 2.66% year - on - year decrease, and produced 3.614 million tons of sugar, a 0.8% year - on - year decrease, with a sugar - making ratio of 54.1% (50.32% in the same period last year). As of August 1, India's sugarcane planting area reached 5.731 million hectares, slightly higher than 5.568 million hectares in the same period last year [9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The import volume of white sugar has increased significantly. Due to good domestic sales, the spot price is firm, and the domestic market trend is stronger than the overseas market. The main contract 01 of Zhengzhou white sugar futures oscillates and rebounds, with the center of gravity slightly moving up. Attention should be paid to the pressure around 5700 [5][9]. - The long - term factors include positive aspects such as good domestic consumption, reduced inventory, increased syrup tariffs, and the change of Coca - Cola's formula in the US to use sucrose. Negative factors are the increase in global white sugar production and the supply surplus in the new year [7][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review No relevant content provided. 3.2 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: As of the end of July in the current sugar - making season in the central - southern region of Brazil, the cumulative sugar production was 19.27 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.8%. As of the end of July 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season in China was 11.1621 million tons; the cumulative sugar sales were 9.5498 million tons; the sales rate was 85.6%. In July 2025, China imported 740,000 tons of sugar, an increase of 320,000 tons year - on - year; the total import of syrup and premixed powder and other three items was 159,800 tons, a decrease of 68,500 tons year - on - year [4]. - **Basis**: The spot price in Liuzhou is 6030, and the basis is 354 (for the 01 contract), with the spot price at a premium to the futures price, indicating a bullish signal [6]. - **Inventory**: As of the end of July, the industrial inventory in the 24/25 sugar - making season was 1.61 million tons, which is a positive factor [6]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is flat, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, showing a bullish sign [6]. - **Main Position**: The position is bearish, the net short position is decreasing, and the main trend is unclear, still leaning towards bearish [5]. 3.3 Today's Focus - **Fundamental Data**: - Multiple institutions predict a supply surplus in the 25/26 global sugar market. For example, Czarnikow predicts a surplus of 7.5 million tons, Datagro predicts 1.53 million tons, StoneX has a revised surplus of 700,000 tons to 3.04 million tons, Green Pool predicts a 5.3% increase in production to 199.1 million tons, and USDA predicts a 4.7% increase in production, a 1.4% increase in consumption, and a surplus of 11.397 million tons [9]. - According to the rural department, in the 25/26 season, the sugar - cane planting area is expected to be 1.44 million hectares, the sugar - cane yield per hectare is 59.7 tons, and the sugar production is expected to be 11.2 million tons. The import volume is predicted to be 5 million tons, and the consumption is 15.9 million tons, with a balance change of 120,000 tons. The international sugar price is expected to be in the range of 16.5 - 21.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be in the range of 5800 - 6500 yuan per ton [38]. - **Position Data**: The main position is bearish, with the net short position decreasing, and the main trend is unclear, still leaning towards bearish [5].

Report Title - "Sugar Weekly Report" [1] Report Core View - The 01 contract of sugar has rebounded as expected and is expected to have further upward space. The current price of the 01 contract has a large discount, and the futures price will first repair part of the discount upwards. The sugar fundamentals are showing signs of improvement, and there is still further upward momentum [10]. Summary by Directory 01 Weekly Core Points and Strategies - **Supply**: China's sugar imports in June 2025 reached 430,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.71% and a year - on - year increase of 1434.86%. The cumulative imports from January to June were 1.04 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 19.7%. The time of import volume arrival is delayed, and the subsequent pressure is still high, but the staggered supply of processed sugar and domestic sugar eases the impact [10]. - **Demand**: The price of processed sugar has gradually stabilized, driving the market trading atmosphere to warm up, accelerating the inventory removal process in production areas, and the overall spot trading is fair [10]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of domestic sugar mills is low, but the social inventory is at a moderately high level. The shipping volume from Brazil in July is low, and the arrival after August is expected to be lower than expected, so the pressure on processed sugar is not large [10]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of August 15, the registered sugar warehouse receipts were 17,104, with 0 valid forecasts, a total of 17,104, compared with 18,545 last week [10]. - **Basis**: The basis is upward. The spot prices in various regions are stable, and the recent linkage between futures and spot prices has strengthened, driving the market trading atmosphere to warm up and accelerating the inventory removal process in production areas [10]. - **Profit**: The out - of - quota import cost from Brazil is about 5,578 yuan/ton, with a slight increase, and the out - of - quota import profit remains flat [10]. - **Macro**: Domestically, the economy shows a weak recovery pattern, and there are expectations of more stimulus policies in the fourth quarter. Overseas, the Fed is expected to cut interest rates twice in 2025, with the first cut likely in September [10]. 02 Sugar Market News This Week - **Brazil**: It is estimated that the sugarcane planting area in 2025 will be 9.241643 million hectares, a 0.2% increase from the previous month's estimate and a 0.8% increase from the previous year. The sugarcane production is estimated to be 695.085205 million tons, a 0.3% increase from the previous month's estimate but a 1.6% decrease from the previous year. From the beginning of the 2025/26 crushing season to the first half of July, the cumulative sugar production decreased by 9.22% year - on - year [15]. - **India**: The estimated total sugar production in the 2025/26 crushing season will increase by 18% to about 34.9 million tons, and the total planting area is estimated to be about 5.724 million hectares, slightly higher than that in the 2024/25 season [16]. 03 Weekly Sugar Data - **Domestic Production**: In the 2024 - 2025 sugar - making season, the national sugar production was 11.1621 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 119,890 tons and a growth rate of 12.03% [20]. - **Domestic Sales**: As of the end of June, the cumulative sugar sales were 7.3834 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 50,520 tons and a growth rate of 7.34%. The cumulative sales rate was 74.11%, a slowdown of 2.54 percentage points year - on - year. The cumulative sales of sugar reached 8.1138 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 152,100 tons and a growth rate of 23.07%, and the cumulative sales rate was 72.69%, an acceleration of 6.52 percentage points year - on - year [24][27]. - **Domestic Substitute Imports**: In June 2025, the total imports of domestic substitute syrups and premixes were 115,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 103,500 tons. From January to June 2025, the total imports were 459,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 492,400 tons [34]. - **Out - of - Quota Import Cost**: The out - of - quota import cost decreased slightly this week [38]. - **Warehouse Receipt Quantity**: The number of warehouse receipts has declined from a high level. As of August 15, the total number of registered warehouse receipts was 17,104 [42].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - International factors such as good production prospects in major Asian sugar - producing countries, strong production signs in Brazil, and a weak US employment report have put pressure on raw sugar prices. Domestically, the opening of the extra - quota profit window has released import pressure. Although the demand side has some support due to the hot summer and the need for food and beverage industries to stock up, overall, the weakening of the outer - market price drags down the domestic sugar price, and with the continuous opening of the import profit window and strengthened import expectations, the short - term trend is a weak and volatile one [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the futures main contract for sugar is 5718 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the main contract position is 205,423 hands, down 25,642 hands; the warehouse receipt quantity is 19,373 sheets, down 70 sheets; the import processing estimated price for Brazilian sugar (within quota) is 4466 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan; for Thai sugar (within quota) is 4542 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan; the import estimated price for Brazilian sugar (outside quota, 50% tariff) and Thai sugar (outside quota, 50% tariff) are both down 18 yuan [2]. 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of white sugar in Kunming is 5865 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; in Nanning is 6030 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Liuzhou is 6080 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop sowing area is 1480 thousand hectares, up 60 thousand hectares; the sowing area of sugar - cane in Guangxi is 835.09 thousand hectares, down 12.86 thousand hectares [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The national cumulative sugar production is 1116.21 million tons, up 5.49 million tons; the cumulative sugar sales volume is 811.38 million tons, up 86.92 million tons; the national industrial sugar inventory is 304.83 million tons, down 81.43 million tons; the national sugar sales rate is 72.69%, up 7.47 percentage points; the monthly sugar import volume is 420,000 tons, up 70,000 tons; the monthly Brazilian sugar export volume is 335.9 million tons, up 110.24 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of refined sugar production is 16.7%, up 2.6 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of soft - drink production is 2.9%, down 0.1 percentage point [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 5.86%, down 2.08 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for sugar is 5.86%, down 2.08 percentage points; the 20 - day historical volatility of sugar is 6.22%, up 0.05 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of sugar is 7.05%, down 0.03 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - In the first half of July, the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil increased by 15% year - on - year to 341 million tons; the Pakistani government has ordered the import of 200,000 tons of sugar to stabilize domestic prices and relieve the burden on consumers [2].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core View The report suggests that the previous short positions and reverse spreads in the sugar market should be cashed in for profit, and then observe the trend of raw sugar before making further decisions. The domestic sugar market's rhythm is different from the overseas market. Although the overall supply pressure is high and the demand is weak, the mismatch in the supply of processed sugar and domestic sugar has alleviated the impact of concentrated listing to some extent. The international sugar market has entered the accelerated production period of the new crushing season in the central - southern region of Brazil, and the double - weekly production data of UNICA will be the key variable affecting market sentiment. The first estimated sugar production in India is significantly lower than market expectations, which may support the raw sugar from a fundamental perspective [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Core Points and Strategies - **Supply**: In June 2025, China's sugar imports were 430,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.71% and a year - on - year increase of 1434.86%. The cumulative imports from January to June were 1.04 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 19.7%. The time for imported sugar to arrive at the port has been postponed, and the subsequent pressure is still high. However, the staggered supply of processed sugar and domestic sugar has alleviated the impact of concentrated listing [9]. - **Demand**: Currently, the price of processed sugar is stable. Yunnan sugar has a cost - performance advantage over processed sugar and has better sales than Guangxi sugar, but the overall market trading is average due to strong wait - and - see sentiment [9]. - **Inventory**: As of the end of May 2025, the national cumulative sugar production was 11.1621 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1989 million tons; the cumulative sugar sales were 8.1138 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.521 million tons, and the industrial inventory at the end of May was 3.0483 million tons. The inventory of domestic sugar mills is low, but the social inventory is at a moderately high level, and the subsequent inventory build - up of processed sugar will bring greater pressure [9]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of August 1, the number of registered sugar warehouse receipts was 19,443, with 0 valid forecasts, a total of 19,443, compared with 20,642 last week [9][41]. - **Basis**: The spot prices of sugar in Guangxi, Yunnan, and processed sugar mills have generally decreased, which has stimulated some rigid - demand purchases, but the downstream terminals are still in a wait - and - see state, and the overall spot sales volume is average [9]. - **Profit**: The out - of - quota import cost of Brazilian sugar has slightly decreased, and the out - of - quota import profit remains flat [9]. - **Macro**: The previous macro - positive expectations in the domestic market have weakened. The Politburo meeting met market expectations, and there is no additional incremental stimulus. The manufacturing PMI in July was lower than expected, while the non - manufacturing PMI rose slightly. Overseas, the June non - farm payrolls data in the US was significantly revised downwards. The commodity attribute of sugar is bearish in the next few months, while the macro attribute is gradually turning bullish, and the direction of interest rate cuts is certain [9]. - **Strategy**: It is advisable to cash in the profits of short positions and reverse spreads and then observe the trend of raw sugar. If raw sugar can stop falling and rebound and processed sugar prices remain stable, industrial long positions may have a certain willingness to take delivery [9]. 3.2 This Week's Sugar Market News - **Brazil**: In the first half of July, the sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil was 49.823 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.77%; the sugar production was 3.406 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.07%. From the beginning of the 2025/26 crushing season to the first half of July, the cumulative sugar production was 15.655 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.22% [14]. - **India**: The Indian Sugar and Bioenergy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) estimated that the sugar production in the 2025/26 crushing season will increase by 18% to about 34.9 million tons, compared with 29.5 million tons in the 2024/25 crushing season [15]. 3.3 Weekly Sugar Data - **Domestic Production**: The sugar production in the 2024 - 2025 season was 11.16 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 12.03%, slightly lower than expected [20]. - **Domestic Sales**: As of the end of June, the cumulative sugar sales were 7.3834 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.34%, and the cumulative sales rate was 74.11%, a year - on - year slowdown of 2.54 percentage points. As of a certain point, the cumulative sales were 8.1138 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 23.07%, and the cumulative sales rate was 72.69%, a year - on - year acceleration of 6.52 percentage points [24][27]. - **Imports**: In June 2025, China's imports of syrup and premixed powder totaled 115,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 103,500 tons. From January to June 2025, the cumulative imports were 459,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 492,400 tons [34]. - **Import Cost**: The out - of - quota import cost of sugar increased slightly this week [38]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of August 1, the number of registered sugar warehouse receipts decreased compared with last week [41].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - In the second half of the year, the price difference between imported sugar processing and Guangxi sugar has narrowed, and the import supply is gradually increasing. The spot import profit outside the quota has remained at the highest level in the past five years, with a relatively high valuation. Coupled with the expected increase in domestic planting area in the next crushing season, assuming that the external market price does not rebound significantly, the probability of the Zhengzhou sugar price continuing to decline in the future is relatively high [9] Group 3: Summary of Each Section 3.1 Week - ly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **International Market Review**: This week, the raw sugar price fluctuated weakly. As of Friday, the closing price of the ICE raw sugar October contract was reported at 16.20 cents per pound, down 0.08 cents per pound from the previous week, a decrease of 0.49%. In the first half of July, the sugar production in the central - southern main producing area of Brazil increased by 15.07% year - on - year to 3.406 million tons, slightly higher than the market expectation of 3.33 million tons. The estimated net sugar production in India in the 2025/26 season will increase by 3.9 million tons to 30 million tons, slightly lower than the market expectation of 31 - 34 million tons. The number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports is 79, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be loaded is 3.5531 million tons. It is estimated that the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the 2025/26 crushing season will be 40.16 million tons, a slight decrease of 40,000 tons from the previous season [9] - **Domestic Market Review**: This week, the Zhengzhou sugar price decreased with a reduction in positions. As of Friday, the closing price of the Zhengzhou sugar September contract was reported at 5,733 yuan per ton, down 143 yuan per ton from the previous week, an increase of 2.43%. As of June, the newly added sugarcane planting area of Guangxi Sugar Industry Group was 320,000 mu, with a total planting area of 2.15 million mu [9] - **Fundamental Assessment**: On August 1, 2025, the basis was 257 yuan per ton, the Zhengzhou sugar 9 - 1 spread was 113 yuan per ton, the production - sales area spread was - 110 yuan per ton, the raw - refined sugar spread was 107 US dollars per ton, the sugar - alcohol spread was 2.67 cents per pound, the in - quota cost of the October contract was 4,526 yuan per ton, and the out - of - quota cost was 5,647 yuan per ton. The overall valuation of the market is relatively high [10] - **Trading Strategy Recommendation**: No trading strategy was recommended [11] 3.2 Spread Trend Review - **Spot Price and Basis**: The report presents the price trend of first - grade white granulated sugar in Nanning, Guangxi, and the basis between the Nanning spot and the Zhengzhou sugar main contract [17][18] - **Spot - to - Spot Spreads**: It shows the processing sugar basis, production - sales area spreads, Zhengzhou sugar 1 - 5 spreads, and Zhengzhou sugar 9 - 1 spreads [20][21][24] - **Domestic - Foreign Spreads**: It includes the out - of - quota spot import profit, out - of - quota futures import profit, raw sugar 10 - 3 spreads, and raw sugar 3 - 5 spreads [25][26][28] - **London White Sugar Monthly Spreads**: It shows the London white sugar 8 - 10 spreads and 10 - 3 spreads [29][30] - **Raw - Refined Sugar Spreads**: It presents the 10 - 10 and 3 - 3 raw - refined sugar spreads [31][32] - **Raw Sugar Spot Premiums and Discounts**: It shows the Brazilian and Thai raw sugar premiums and discounts [33][34] - **Sugar - Alcohol Ratio Fluctuations**: It shows the production advantage of raw sugar over Brazilian hydrous ethanol and the Brazilian oil - alcohol ratio [36][37] 3.3 Domestic Market Situation - **National Production**: It presents the national monthly and cumulative sugar production [41][42] - **Sugar Imports**: It shows the national monthly and cumulative sugar imports, as well as the monthly and cumulative imports of syrups and premixes [44][45][47] - **National Sales**: It presents the national monthly sugar sales volume and cumulative sales progress [49][50] - **National Industrial Inventory**: It shows the national monthly industrial inventory and Guangxi's three - party warehouse inventory [52][53] 3.4 International Market Situation - **CFTC Positions**: It shows the CFTC fund net positions and commercial net positions [57][58] - **Production in Central - Southern Brazil**: It presents the bi - weekly and cumulative sugar production, cumulative sugar - cane - to - sugar ratio, and cumulative sugar - cane crushing volume in central - southern Brazil [60][61][64] - **India's Production**: It shows India's bi - weekly and cumulative sugar production [65][66] - **Thailand's Production**: It shows Thailand's bi - weekly and cumulative sugar production [68][69] - **Brazil's Shipment Volume**: It shows the sugar inventory in central - southern Brazil and the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped at Brazilian ports [71][72]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - Internationally, the rainy season brings a good production outlook for major Asian sugar - producing countries, and strong production signs in Brazil lead to a supply - surplus expectation, keeping the raw sugar market price under pressure. However, lower - than - expected ATR in Brazil's central - southern region and potential demand from countries like Pakistan, the Philippines, and Iran provide some support, causing short - term low - level fluctuations. Domestically, there is a strong - weak differentiation in internal and external prices. The opening of the profit window for out - of - quota imports and the release of import pressure, with a significant year - on - year increase in June's sugar imports, suppresses sugar prices. The demand side, due to hot summer weather, has备货 needs in the food and beverage industry and a seasonal consumption recovery in cold drinks, providing some price support. Overall, the slowdown of the decline in the external market weakens its drag on domestic prices, and the domestic peak demand season supports sugar futures prices. But increased imports and the global supply - surplus expectation limit the upside space, resulting in an overall oscillatory trend. It is recommended to wait and see for now [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the sugar futures main contract is 5793 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan; the main contract's open interest is 255,082 lots, down 21,949 lots; the number of sugar warehouse receipts is 19,473 sheets, down 47 sheets; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 7,075 lots; the total forecast of effective warehouse receipts for sugar is 0 sheets; the estimated import - processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4,533 yuan/ton, up 39 yuan; the estimated import - processing price of Thai sugar within the quota is 4,585 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the estimated import price of Brazilian sugar out - of - quota (50% tariff) is 5,761 yuan/ton, up 51 yuan; the estimated import price of Thai sugar out - of - quota (50% tariff) is 5,828 yuan/ton [2]. 现货市场 - The spot price of white sugar in Kunming is 5,900 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; in Nanning, it is 6,030 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; in Liuzhou, it is 6,100 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop sown area is 1,480 thousand hectares, up 60 thousand hectares; the sown area of sugar - cane in Guangxi is 835.09 thousand hectares, down 12.86 thousand hectares [2]. Industry Situation - The cumulative national sugar production is 1,116.21 million tons, up 5.49 million tons; the cumulative national sugar sales volume is 811.38 million tons, up 86.92 million tons; the national industrial sugar inventory is 304.83 million tons, down 81.43 million tons; the national sugar sales rate is 72.69%, up 7.47 percentage points; the monthly sugar import volume is 420,000 tons, up 70,000 tons; the monthly total sugar exports from Brazil are 3.359 billion tons, up 1.1024 billion tons; the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1,427 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1,375 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan; the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar out - of - quota (50% tariff) is 199 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar out - of - quota (50% tariff) is 132 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan [2]. Downstream Situation - The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of refined sugar production is 16.7%, up 2.6 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of soft drink production is 2.9%, down 0.1 percentage point; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 7.94%, down 2.17 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for sugar is 7.94%, down 2.17 percentage points [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of sugar is 6.17%, up 1.53 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of sugar is 7.08%, up 0.35 percentage points [2]. Industry News - Broker Stonex reports that the sugar production in Brazil's central - southern region in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 40.16 million tons, and the sugar - cane crushing volume is expected to be 598.8 million tons. The sugar 2509 contract closed down 0.79%. Internationally, with the arrival of the monsoon season, the production prospects of major Asian sugar - producing countries are good, and Brazil shows strong production signs [2].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - International supply is expected to be loose, suppressing raw sugar prices, but short - term support exists due to Pakistan's import plan and reduced sugar production in Brazil's central - southern region in late June [2]. - In China, there is a divergence in price trends between domestic and foreign markets. The opening of the profit window for out - of - quota imports will release import pressure and suppress sugar prices. However, the summer consumption peak and the demand for food and beverage inventory replenishment provide some support for sugar prices [2]. - Recently, the domestic white sugar price fluctuates repeatedly following raw sugar, but shows stronger performance than the foreign market due to rising domestic demand. In the later period, with both supply and demand being strong, price fluctuations will intensify. Attention should be paid to the arrival of imported sugar and summer consumption [2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main sugar futures contract is 5817 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 7 yuan; the main contract's open interest is 327,581 hands, with a change of 17,613 hands [2]. - The number of sugar warehouse receipts is 22,716, and the effective warehouse receipt forecast is 0, a decrease of 106 [2]. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 22,354 hands [2]. 现货市场 - The estimated import price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4410 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70 yuan; the estimated import price of Thai sugar within the quota is 4539 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan [2]. - The estimated import price of Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan; the estimated import price of Thai sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5769 yuan/ton [2]. - The spot prices of white sugar in Kunming, Nanning, and Liuzhou are 5905 yuan/ton, 6060 yuan/ton, and 6140 yuan/ton respectively, with no daily change [2]. Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop sown area is 1480 thousand hectares, an increase of 60 thousand hectares. The sown area of sugarcane in Guangxi is 835.09 thousand hectares, a decrease of 12.86 thousand hectares [2]. - The national cumulative sugar production is 11.1621 million tons, an increase of 54,900 tons; the cumulative sugar sales volume is 8.1138 million tons, an increase of 869,200 tons [2]. - The national industrial sugar inventory is 3.0483 million tons, a decrease of 814,300 tons; the national sugar sales rate is 72.69%, an increase of 7.47 percentage points [2]. - The monthly import volume of sugar is 350,000 tons, an increase of 220,000 tons; Brazil's monthly sugar export volume is 3.359 million tons, an increase of 1.1024 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1543 yuan/ton, an increase of 84 yuan; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1414 yuan/ton, an increase of 85 yuan [2]. - The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 353 yuan/ton, an increase of 105 yuan; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 184 yuan/ton, an increase of 105 yuan [2]. Downstream Situation - The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of refined sugar production is 16.7%, an increase of 2.6 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of soft drink production is 3%, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options for sugar is 7.55%, a decrease of 3.45 percentage points [2]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of sugar is 6.58%, a decrease of 0.03 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility is 7.55%, a decrease of 0.04 percentage points [2]. Industry News - The US Department of Agriculture's latest supply - demand report shows that the US sugar production in the 2025/26 sugar - making season starting in October is 9.19 million short tons, a decrease of 59,000 short tons from last month's estimate due to the decline in beet sugar production. Sugar consumption is expected to be reduced by 165,000 short tons to 12.16 million short tons [2].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the given report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The rebound of the international raw sugar from its bottom has led to a rebound in the domestic market, but the upside space remains limited [3]. - Internationally, the supply side continues to recover this season. Brazil's new season is progressing smoothly, but the increase in Brazil's production may fall short of expectations. Benefiting from good monsoon weather, the production in India and Thailand is expected to rebound [3]. - Domestically, the new season is expected to see a significant increase in production, reaching a historical high. The domestic market may continue to face pressure, but the downside space is also limited [3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalog Domestic Spot Price - In Guangxi, the price in Nanning Warehouse is 6130 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan, with a basis of 325 yuan against SR09, down 16 yuan [3]. - In Yunnan, the price in Kunming is 5895 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan, with a basis of 190 yuan against SR09, up 4 yuan; in Dali, it is 5790 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan, with a basis of 125 yuan against SR09, down 6 yuan [3]. - In Shandong, the price in Rizhao is 6135 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a basis of 230 yuan against SR09, down 26 yuan [3]. Futures Price - SR09 is at 5805 yuan, up 26 yuan; SR01 is at 5632 yuan, up 26 yuan; the spread between SR09 - 01 is 173 yuan, unchanged [3]. International Exchange Rate and Commodity Price - The RMB against the US dollar is at 7.1965, down 0.0030; the Brazilian real against the RMB is at 1.2818, up 0.0212; the Indian rupee against the RMB is at 0.084, down 0.0004 [3]. - The ICE raw sugar main contract is at 16.54, unchanged; the London white sugar main contract is at 573, up 3; the Brent crude oil main contract is at 70.18, unchanged [3].