据经济日报报道，近期，全球银价创出历史新高，成为市场关注的热点。据悉，今年白银现货价格涨幅超过90%，跑赢黄金；在期货方面，白银期货波动率 上升，10月份以来已多次出现单日涨跌幅超5%的行情走势。有相关人士对此表示，白银价格不断创新高，是实物白银供需失衡、美联储货币政策影响与全 球大量资金涌入共同作用的结果。实物白银持续扩大的供需缺口，是支撑白银此轮上涨的核心因素。 2.分布在一线城市的相关企业最多 企查查数据显示，截至12月4日，国内现存白银制品相关企业8.44万家。从经营时间来看，白银制品相关企业多为老牌企业，成立年限在5-10年的相关企业 最多，占比过半，达52.56%。从城市能级分布来看，分布在一线城市的白银制品相关企业最多，占比34.55%。注册量方面，2024年全年注册1620家相关企 业，截至目前，今年已注册1474家。 1.白银制品相关企业多为老牌企业 企查查数据显示，截至12月4日，国内现存白银制品相关企业8.44万家。从经营时间来看，白银制品相关企业多为老牌企业，成立年限在5-10年的相关企业 最多，占比过半，达52.56%。成立年限在10年以上的相关企业占比37.01%。 企查查数据显示 ...

今年以来，墨西哥白银产量下降、秘鲁多个银矿停产，白银主要生产国出产量减少。叠加全球2025年回 收白银原料（旧首饰、工业催化剂、电子产品等）供给仅增长1.2%至1.97亿盎司，增幅微弱，远低于工 业需求的大幅增长，供应端的刚性约束让白银在2025年呈现出供应不足的局面。 世界白银协会数据显示，受高银价抑制，2025年全球白银首饰需求预计为2.05亿盎司，同比下降5%左 右；2025年全球白银总投资需求（银条银币+ETF）达13.34亿盎司，同比增长8.2%，创历史新高，占全 球白银总需求的37%，成为支撑银价的核心力量。 同时，2025年全球白银需求端出现爆发式增长。光伏产业成为最大"用银大户"。2025年全球光伏业用银 量达7560吨，较2022年实现翻番增长，占全球白银总需求的比重从2022年的20%飙升至55%，改变了白 银的传统需求结构。 同时，随着资金加速涌入，全球白银ETF持仓量半年内增加超500吨。国际投行瑞银已将2026年白银目 标价上调至58美元/盎司至60美元/盎司，甚至不排除触及65美元/盎司的可能；美国花旗与渣打则预测 2025年第四季度至2026年第一季度，白银价格将稳定在55美元/ ...

Group 1 - Silver futures are currently trading above 13433, with a reported increase of 3.15% to 13514 per kilogram, reaching a high of 13787 and a low of 13303 during the day [1] - Shanghai Futures Exchange silver inventory has dropped to its lowest level in nearly a decade, with China exporting approximately 660 tons of silver to London in October, easing supply tensions in the London market [2] - Analysts note a significant proportion of open contracts seeking physical delivery at the CME, indicating potential market pressure, although the relationship between delivery notices and registered inventory changes is complex [2] Group 2 - Retail investors are identified as a key driving force in the silver market, with their demand likened to a "giant war machine" that could become unstoppable if they decide to hold silver [2] - Global silver mining supply is struggling to grow, with some producers reporting year-on-year declines in output, while silver recycling remains relatively stable [2] - This overall market condition may lead to a potential supply-demand imbalance, which, if persistent, could exacerbate future price volatility [2] Group 3 - The recent trading day saw silver futures reach a high of 13766, with expectations of potential adjustments and a focus on the 13000 level for further bearish signals [3] - The main contract for silver is expected to operate within a range of 13380 to 13900 [3]

Core Viewpoint - International silver prices surged from $38/oz to a historic high of $54.47/oz between late August and mid-October 2025, driven by macroeconomic factors such as safe-haven demand, allocation demand, and U.S. policy easing, alongside a fundamental supply-demand imbalance in the global silver market [1] Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The global silver supply-demand imbalance has shifted in the last four years, with supply deficits recorded in 2021 (1591 tons) and 2022 (7393 tons), and a narrowed deficit in 2023 (4400 tons), expected to widen again in 2024 (5000 tons) and 2025 (4500 tons) [2] - The structural supply-demand imbalance is attributed to increased investment and industrial demand for silver, coupled with insufficient capital expenditure from major silver mining companies, limiting long-term supply growth [2] - The London silver market experienced significant shortages, with only 24,600 tons remaining in the vaults by the end of September, and 83% of this locked in silver ETFs, leading to soaring leasing rates [4] Group 2: Impact of U.S. Policies - U.S. tariff policies and the inclusion of silver in the critical minerals list have exacerbated shortages in non-U.S. silver markets, as countries rush to export silver to the U.S. to avoid impending tariffs [3] - The proposal to add silver to the critical minerals list aims to reduce import dependency, further tightening global silver supply [3] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Price Movements - A recent easing of international trade tensions has led to a decrease in safe-haven demand for silver, as investors shift towards riskier assets like stocks and oil, contributing to a price correction from recent highs [5] - Despite short-term price adjustments, long-term bullish factors remain, including potential further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which could support silver prices [6][7] - The ongoing structural supply-demand tightness suggests that while silver prices may experience short-term fluctuations, the medium to long-term outlook remains positive [7]

Core Viewpoint - The silver market is experiencing a "liquidity storm," with significant price increases despite general pressure on commodity prices, driven by supply-demand imbalances and strong industrial demand [1][2][7]. Group 1: Price Movements - As of Friday, the London spot silver price rose by 1.87% to $50.126 per ounce, maintaining a historical high, significantly outperforming New York silver futures [1]. - The price spread between the near-month New York silver futures and London silver spot reached $2.73 per ounce, marking a high in recent years [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The London silver market has seen a one-third decline in inventory since mid-2021, with only 200 million ounces remaining, a 75% drop from the peak of over 850 million ounces in mid-2019 [4]. - Industrial demand, particularly from the photovoltaic and electric vehicle sectors, accounts for over 50% of silver consumption, with demand growth outpacing supply growth [4][5]. Group 3: Investment Trends - The total holdings of major overseas silver ETFs increased by 12.8% from February 6 to October 10, rising from 24,957 tons to 28,162 tons [5]. - The difference between London silver inventory and overseas ETF holdings exceeded 3,000 tons, indicating a significant lock-up of physical silver in ETFs [6]. Group 4: Market Conditions and Future Outlook - Current macroeconomic conditions, including loose fiscal and monetary policies in major economies, are providing upward pressure on silver prices [7]. - The potential for U.S. tariffs on silver poses a significant uncertainty for the market, with implications for inventory levels and price movements [8]. - The transition of silver from an "industrial metal" to a "store of value" asset may reshape market dynamics, with both investment and industrial demand supporting price increases [8].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The price of Shanghai Silver futures has been rising strongly, with the main contract reaching 10,317 yuan on September 22, a 3.81% increase, hitting a record high. The COMEX silver futures have accumulated a 41% increase since the beginning of the year, far exceeding the 35% increase of gold during the same period. The rise is due to three main reasons: macro - level factors, fundamental factors, and technical factors [3]. - The Shanghai Composite Index is expected to fluctuate at a high level overall. The market has a positive expectation due to a press conference at 3 pm today, and relevant departments are promoting the formulation of national standards for pre - made dishes [7]. - The gold market is trading on the expectation of an interest rate cut in October. After a three - day adjustment, gold has reached a new high with a strong upward trend and can continue to be bullish [11]. - For iron ore, the start of restocking may support raw materials. Technically, it is still in a high - level wide - range oscillation range and should be treated with an oscillatory mindset [14]. - For glass, it declined today. Attention should be paid to the support level of the lower platform. The daily melting is basically stable, the factory inventory has slightly decreased, but the recovery of downstream deep - processing orders is insufficient [18][19]. - For soybean oil, on September 12, the domestic commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.26 million tons. High inventory restricts the price increase space, and it should be treated with a bearish oscillatory view [22]. - For pulp, the price in Shandong is stable, the port inventory is slightly decreasing, and it remains at a medium - high level. Before the Mid - Autumn Festival peak season, there is an expected boost, but no improvement is seen yet. It is expected to oscillate at a low level, and high - selling and low - buying within the range can be considered [25]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Hot Focus - The continuous rise of Shanghai Silver futures is mainly due to: macro - level factors such as the Fed's monetary policy shift (new Fed governor's dovish speech supporting a 150 - basis - point interest rate cut this year and market expectations of two 25 - basis - point cuts in the next two meetings) and rising geopolitical tensions; fundamental factors including supply - demand imbalance in the silver market (increased demand from the photovoltaic industry and a global supply - demand gap of 3,659 tons in 2025) and increased investment value; and technical factors such as a bullish moving - average arrangement and a MACD golden cross [3]. Technical Analysis - Stock Index Futures - The Shanghai Composite Index closed with a small positive line with a lower shadow. A press conference today is expected to be positive for the market, and relevant departments are promoting the formulation of national standards for pre - made dishes. The market is expected to oscillate at a high level [7]. Technical Analysis - Gold - The market is trading on the expectation of an interest rate cut in October. After a three - day adjustment, gold reached a new high with a strong upward trend and can continue to be bullish [11]. Technical Analysis - Iron Ore - The supply is stable, steel mills are gradually resuming production, and iron ore restocking before the National Day may support prices. Technically, it is in a high - level wide - range oscillation range [14][15]. Technical Analysis - Glass - The glass price declined today. Attention should be paid to the lower platform support. The daily melting is stable, the factory inventory has slightly decreased, but the recovery of downstream deep - processing orders is insufficient [18][19]. Technical Analysis - Soybean Oil - On September 12, the domestic commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.26 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 10,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 100,000 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 110,000 tons. High inventory restricts the price increase space [22]. Technical Analysis - Pulp - The price of pulp in Shandong is stable, the port inventory is slightly decreasing and remains at a medium - high level. Before the Mid - Autumn Festival peak season, there is an expected boost, but no improvement is seen yet. It is expected to oscillate at a low level, and high - selling and low - buying within the range can be considered [25].