Core Viewpoint - International silver prices surged from $38/oz to a historic high of $54.47/oz between late August and mid-October 2025, driven by macroeconomic factors such as safe-haven demand, allocation demand, and U.S. policy easing, alongside a fundamental supply-demand imbalance in the global silver market [1] Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The global silver supply-demand imbalance has shifted in the last four years, with supply deficits recorded in 2021 (1591 tons) and 2022 (7393 tons), and a narrowed deficit in 2023 (4400 tons), expected to widen again in 2024 (5000 tons) and 2025 (4500 tons) [2] - The structural supply-demand imbalance is attributed to increased investment and industrial demand for silver, coupled with insufficient capital expenditure from major silver mining companies, limiting long-term supply growth [2] - The London silver market experienced significant shortages, with only 24,600 tons remaining in the vaults by the end of September, and 83% of this locked in silver ETFs, leading to soaring leasing rates [4] Group 2: Impact of U.S. Policies - U.S. tariff policies and the inclusion of silver in the critical minerals list have exacerbated shortages in non-U.S. silver markets, as countries rush to export silver to the U.S. to avoid impending tariffs [3] - The proposal to add silver to the critical minerals list aims to reduce import dependency, further tightening global silver supply [3] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Price Movements - A recent easing of international trade tensions has led to a decrease in safe-haven demand for silver, as investors shift towards riskier assets like stocks and oil, contributing to a price correction from recent highs [5] - Despite short-term price adjustments, long-term bullish factors remain, including potential further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which could support silver prices [6][7] - The ongoing structural supply-demand tightness suggests that while silver prices may experience short-term fluctuations, the medium to long-term outlook remains positive [7]

Core Viewpoint - The silver market is experiencing a "liquidity storm," with significant price increases despite general pressure on commodity prices, driven by supply-demand imbalances and strong industrial demand [1][2][7]. Group 1: Price Movements - As of Friday, the London spot silver price rose by 1.87% to $50.126 per ounce, maintaining a historical high, significantly outperforming New York silver futures [1]. - The price spread between the near-month New York silver futures and London silver spot reached $2.73 per ounce, marking a high in recent years [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The London silver market has seen a one-third decline in inventory since mid-2021, with only 200 million ounces remaining, a 75% drop from the peak of over 850 million ounces in mid-2019 [4]. - Industrial demand, particularly from the photovoltaic and electric vehicle sectors, accounts for over 50% of silver consumption, with demand growth outpacing supply growth [4][5]. Group 3: Investment Trends - The total holdings of major overseas silver ETFs increased by 12.8% from February 6 to October 10, rising from 24,957 tons to 28,162 tons [5]. - The difference between London silver inventory and overseas ETF holdings exceeded 3,000 tons, indicating a significant lock-up of physical silver in ETFs [6]. Group 4: Market Conditions and Future Outlook - Current macroeconomic conditions, including loose fiscal and monetary policies in major economies, are providing upward pressure on silver prices [7]. - The potential for U.S. tariffs on silver poses a significant uncertainty for the market, with implications for inventory levels and price movements [8]. - The transition of silver from an "industrial metal" to a "store of value" asset may reshape market dynamics, with both investment and industrial demand supporting price increases [8].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The price of Shanghai Silver futures has been rising strongly, with the main contract reaching 10,317 yuan on September 22, a 3.81% increase, hitting a record high. The COMEX silver futures have accumulated a 41% increase since the beginning of the year, far exceeding the 35% increase of gold during the same period. The rise is due to three main reasons: macro - level factors, fundamental factors, and technical factors [3]. - The Shanghai Composite Index is expected to fluctuate at a high level overall. The market has a positive expectation due to a press conference at 3 pm today, and relevant departments are promoting the formulation of national standards for pre - made dishes [7]. - The gold market is trading on the expectation of an interest rate cut in October. After a three - day adjustment, gold has reached a new high with a strong upward trend and can continue to be bullish [11]. - For iron ore, the start of restocking may support raw materials. Technically, it is still in a high - level wide - range oscillation range and should be treated with an oscillatory mindset [14]. - For glass, it declined today. Attention should be paid to the support level of the lower platform. The daily melting is basically stable, the factory inventory has slightly decreased, but the recovery of downstream deep - processing orders is insufficient [18][19]. - For soybean oil, on September 12, the domestic commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.26 million tons. High inventory restricts the price increase space, and it should be treated with a bearish oscillatory view [22]. - For pulp, the price in Shandong is stable, the port inventory is slightly decreasing, and it remains at a medium - high level. Before the Mid - Autumn Festival peak season, there is an expected boost, but no improvement is seen yet. It is expected to oscillate at a low level, and high - selling and low - buying within the range can be considered [25]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Hot Focus - The continuous rise of Shanghai Silver futures is mainly due to: macro - level factors such as the Fed's monetary policy shift (new Fed governor's dovish speech supporting a 150 - basis - point interest rate cut this year and market expectations of two 25 - basis - point cuts in the next two meetings) and rising geopolitical tensions; fundamental factors including supply - demand imbalance in the silver market (increased demand from the photovoltaic industry and a global supply - demand gap of 3,659 tons in 2025) and increased investment value; and technical factors such as a bullish moving - average arrangement and a MACD golden cross [3]. Technical Analysis - Stock Index Futures - The Shanghai Composite Index closed with a small positive line with a lower shadow. A press conference today is expected to be positive for the market, and relevant departments are promoting the formulation of national standards for pre - made dishes. The market is expected to oscillate at a high level [7]. Technical Analysis - Gold - The market is trading on the expectation of an interest rate cut in October. After a three - day adjustment, gold reached a new high with a strong upward trend and can continue to be bullish [11]. Technical Analysis - Iron Ore - The supply is stable, steel mills are gradually resuming production, and iron ore restocking before the National Day may support prices. Technically, it is in a high - level wide - range oscillation range [14][15]. Technical Analysis - Glass - The glass price declined today. Attention should be paid to the lower platform support. The daily melting is stable, the factory inventory has slightly decreased, but the recovery of downstream deep - processing orders is insufficient [18][19]. Technical Analysis - Soybean Oil - On September 12, the domestic commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.26 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 10,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 100,000 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 110,000 tons. High inventory restricts the price increase space [22]. Technical Analysis - Pulp - The price of pulp in Shandong is stable, the port inventory is slightly decreasing and remains at a medium - high level. Before the Mid - Autumn Festival peak season, there is an expected boost, but no improvement is seen yet. It is expected to oscillate at a low level, and high - selling and low - buying within the range can be considered [25].