Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report focuses on the fundamentals of lithium carbonate, including market data and macro - industry news. It shows that lithium carbonate production continues to increase and the market is in an oscillatory state [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market Data**: For the 2511 contract, the closing price was 74,040, with a change of 1,160 compared to T - 1; the trading volume was 342,719, down 2,502 from T - 1; the open interest was 261,141, up 487 from T - 1. For the 2601 contract, the closing price was 74,000, with a change of 1,140 compared to T - 1; the trading volume was 85,570, down 1,336 from T - 1; the open interest was 178,347, down 8 from T - 1. The warehouse receipt volume was 40,309, up 560 from T - 1 [1]. - **Base - related Data**: The spot - 2511 was - 290, down 1,260 from T - 1; the spot - 2601 was - 250, down 1,240 from T - 1; the 2511 - 2601 basis was 40, up 20 from T - 1; the electric carbon - industrial carbon was 2,250, unchanged from T - 1; the spot - CIF was 6,772, down 132 from T - 1 [1]. - **Raw Material and Lithium Salt Data**: The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 856, unchanged from T - 1; the price of lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) was 1,875, unchanged from T - 1. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,750, down 100 from T - 1; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 71,500, down 100 from T - 1 [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Price Information**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 73,678 yuan/ton, down 106 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,750 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from the previous working day; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 71,500 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from the previous working day [2]. - **Production and Inventory**: This week's lithium carbonate production was 20,516 tons, an increase of 153 tons from last week. The industry inventory was 136,825 tons, a decrease of 706 tons from last week [2]. - **Project News**: The 10,000 - ton battery - grade lithium carbonate project of the green comprehensive development and utilization of Zabuye Salt Lake in Tibet was officially put into production on September 20 - 24, 2025 [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral view, with the value ranging from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The lithium carbonate market sentiment weakened today, with futures hitting the daily limit during the session and the main contract LC2511 closing at the limit price of 80,980. The sharp decline in the market was mainly due to the overall weakening of the macro - environment and capital stampede, while the fundamentals showed no obvious turning signal. The short - term seasonal support maintains a tight balance in the fundamentals, while the medium - term industrial supply and demand remain relatively loose. The lithium carbonate price is still greatly affected by short - term news, with limited downward space, and the main contract may find support between 75,000 - 80,000. It is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [1][3][6] Summary by Related Content Market Performance - Today, the overall sentiment in the lithium carbonate market weakened. After a sharp low opening in the morning, the market continued to trade downward. Futures hit the daily limit across the board during the session. Some contracts opened during the afternoon session, but the overall market remained weak. The main contract LC2511 closed at the daily limit price of 80,980 [1] Factors Affecting the Market - **Macro and Sentiment Factors**: The sharp decline in the market was mainly due to the overall weakening of the macro - environment and capital stampede. After the main contract broke through 90,000 on Monday but failed to hold, some funds left the market in advance. Yesterday, the market sentiment adjusted, combined with the weakening macro - atmosphere and less - than - expected policy statements. The commodity night market was generally in the red, and negative news also triggered market discussions, intensifying capital stampede [3] - **Supply - related News**: Jiangte Motor announced that Yichun Yinli will resume production, which is in line with the previous 26 - day maintenance plan and has little impact on the overall supply. The Trump administration said it will highly prioritize law enforcement in several new industrial sectors including lithium, mainly related to product exports from Xinjiang. However, lithium projects in Xinjiang have not been scaled up, and the proportion of lithium - battery exports to the US has declined, so the actual impact may be limited. The results of mining rights issues in other mining areas in Jiangxi (except Jiaxiaowo) before September 30 and the resumption of production in Qinghai Salt Lake are still unclear, which may provide trading opportunities [3] Fundamental Situation - **Supply**: The fundamentals have maintained a tight balance recently. The smelting end has short - term inventory support, and supply has not significantly declined. Last week's production data was mainly driven by an increase in subcontracting. However, there is an expectation of a short - term contraction in domestic supply, which is expected to be gradually reflected in this week's data. In July, the total import of spodumene was 750,651 tons, a month - on - month increase of 30.35%, and the import volume increased due to price incentives. The total export of lithium carbonate from Argentina in July was 10,300 tons, of which 9,000 tons were exported to China, with a significant month - on - month increase in exports, which supplemented the reduction in domestic supply to some extent [4] - **Demand**: Demand is showing a stable and optimistic trend, gradually entering the peak season. Most orders for lithium iron phosphate have increased. The production of ternary materials has also increased due to the increase in customer - supplied demand from the cell end. The overall orders for electrolytes are good. However, the sustainability of the actual demand boost under the inventory pressure of the material industry chain still needs to be tracked. Last week, there was a slight de - stocking across the board. The inventory of upstream smelters continued to decrease, while downstream and other trading sectors had a certain amount of restocking. As of August 14, the total weekly inventory in the SMM sample was 142,256 tons, with smelter inventory at 49,693 tons, downstream inventory at 48,283 tons, and inventory in other sectors at 44,280 tons [5] Market Outlook - The short - term price of lithium carbonate is still greatly affected by news, with limited downward space. The main contract may find support between 75,000 - 80,000. It is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term as the fundamentals are in a tight balance in the short term due to seasonal support, while the medium - term industrial supply and demand remain relatively loose. After the third quarter, there are still project expectations for African mines, South American and domestic salt lakes to increase production [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the lithium carbonate market is experiencing fluctuations, with prices showing a strong upward trend recently, driven by supply-side disturbances and production capacity adjustments [1][2] - Lithium carbonate futures opened at 88,160.0 yuan/ton, reaching a high of 90,100.0 yuan and a low of 87,720.0 yuan, reflecting a price increase of approximately 5.25% [1] - The supply side remains a critical factor, with expectations of reduced supply from various sources, including domestic mica and salt lakes in Chile, contributing to potential price increases [2] Group 2 - Hualian Futures noted that lithium carbonate production remains stable, with an increase in production capacity utilization among processing enterprises, while the demand from the new energy vehicle sector shows signs of marginal slowdown [1] - Newhu Futures emphasized that the current trading focus is on supply-side disturbances, with expectations of price increases due to potential supply reductions and upcoming seasonal demand [2] - CICC Futures highlighted uncertainties in the market, particularly regarding mining permits and potential production halts, which could lead to significant price volatility in the fourth quarter [2]

Group 1 - Lithium carbonate main contract prices rose sharply, reaching a peak of 69,980 yuan/ton before closing at 67,960 yuan/ton, reflecting a 2.47% increase [1] - Analysts believe that supply-side disturbances and a continuous decrease in exchange warehouse receipts are the main factors driving recent price increases, while the overall supply remains sufficient [1] - Despite being a traditional off-season for demand, downstream orders are still relatively stable, indicating a less pronounced seasonal effect [1] Group 2 - Cangge Mining announced a halt in lithium resource development activities, affecting a production line with a monthly capacity of approximately 1,200 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent, but the overall impact on the domestic lithium carbonate market supply is limited [2] - Domestic lithium carbonate production plans for July are projected to be 79,300 tons, a 7.1% increase month-on-month, with high operating rates maintained in Jiangxi and stable output in Qinghai [2] - Some manufacturers are experiencing increased orders and production enthusiasm, despite planned maintenance on certain spodumene production lines [2] Group 3 - Market sentiment is significantly driven by disturbances at the mining end, with lithium prices remaining strong, although downstream material manufacturers show little intention to actively replenish stocks [3] - The recent price increases are primarily driven by supply-side disturbances, with limited actual impact on the fundamentals, suggesting a cautious approach in the short term [3] - Continuous reduction in warehouse receipts and rising lithium ore prices, combined with various market news disturbances, are stimulating price increases, while long-term hedging pressures may arise [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - On July 1, 2025, the 2509 contract of lithium carbonate futures rose 0.16% to 62,780 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate remained at 61,300 yuan/ton, the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained at 59,700 yuan/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) dropped 100 yuan/ton to 57,720 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory increased 312 tons to 22,940 tons [3]. - On the supply side, the weekly lithium carbonate production increased 305 tons to 18,767 tons, with a relatively obvious increase from mica. In June, the lithium carbonate production increased over 9% month - on - month. On the demand side, according to third - party production scheduling data, the production of lithium iron phosphate in July is expected to increase 3% month - on - month, and the production of ternary materials is expected to increase 1.3% month - on - month. The weekly inventory turnover days have all increased, with a relatively obvious increase in lithium iron phosphate. On the inventory side, the weekly inventory increased 1,936 tons to 136,837 tons, with downstream inventory increasing 269 tons to 40,635 tons, intermediate link inventory increasing 1,260 tons to 37,170 tons, and upstream inventory increasing 407 tons to 59,032 tons [3]. - Last week, the lithium ore transaction price increased slightly. Lithium salt plants announced shutdowns for maintenance and technological upgrades, and there were many disturbances in the market news. However, the current price faces certain hedging pressure, and there are no signs of production cuts at the mine end. In the short term, it may still fluctuate [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - **Futures**: The closing price of the main contract was 62,780 yuan/ton on July 1, 2025, up 520 yuan from June 30; the closing price of the continuous contract was 62,980 yuan/ton, up 560 yuan [5]. - **Lithium Ore**: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 625 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars; the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) remained at 720 yuan/ton; the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) remained at 1,255 yuan/ton; the price of amblygonite (Li2O: 6% - 7%) was 4,275 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan; the price of amblygonite (Li2O: 7% - 8%) was 5,100 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan [5]. - **Lithium Carbonate and Lithium Hydroxide**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5% battery - grade/domestic) remained at 61,300 yuan/ton; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2% industrial zero - grade/domestic) remained at 59,700 yuan/ton; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles/domestic) was 57,720 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) was 62,870 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the price of industrial - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles/domestic) was 52,070 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (CIF China, Japan, and South Korea) remained at 8.1 US dollars/kg [5]. - **Other Products**: The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate was 51,550 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan. Among the prices of precursors and cathode materials, most remained unchanged, with only the price of ternary precursor 622 (polycrystalline/consumer - type) up 20 yuan/ton to 71,310 yuan/ton, and the price of ternary material 811 (power - type) down 20 yuan/ton to 142,530 yuan/ton. The price of most lithium batteries remained unchanged, with only the price of square lithium iron phosphate batteries down 0.001 yuan/Wh to 0.299 yuan/Wh [5]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - **Ore Price**: Charts show the price trends of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF), lithium mica (1.5% - 2.0%), lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%), and amblygonite (6% - 7%) from 2024 to 2025 [6][8]. - **Lithium and Lithium Salt Price**: Charts display the price trends of metallic lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate average price, industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price, battery - grade lithium hydroxide price, industrial - grade lithium hydroxide price, and lithium hexafluorophosphate price from 2024 to 2025 [9][11][13]. - **Price Difference**: Charts present the price differences between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, CIF China, Japan, and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and domestic battery - grade lithium hydroxide, battery - grade lithium carbonate (CIF Asia) and domestic battery - grade lithium carbonate, and the basis from 2024 to 2025 [16][17][19]. - **Precursor & Cathode Material**: Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and lithium cobaltate from 2024 to 2025 [21][24][27]. - **Lithium Battery Price**: Charts display the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, lithium cobaltate cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [30][32][33]. - **Inventory**: Charts present the weekly inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links of lithium carbonate from November 2024 to June 2025 [35][37]. - **Production Cost**: The chart shows the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as外购三元极片黑粉 (Li: 5.5% - 6.5%),外购磷酸铁锂极片黑粉 (Li: 3.2% - 4.2%),外购锂云母精矿 (Li₂O: 2.5%), and外购锂辉石精矿 (Li₂O: 6%) from 2024 to 2025 [39][40]. 3.3 Research Team Introduction - Zhan Dapeng, a master of science, is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior precious metals researcher, a gold intermediate investment analyst, an excellent metals analyst of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the best industrial futures analyst of Futures Daily & Securities Times. He has more than ten years of commodity research experience, serves many leading spot enterprises, and has published dozens of professional articles in public newspapers and magazines. His team has won the awards of the 16th and 15th Best Metal Industry Futures Research Teams of Futures Daily & Securities Times and the title of Excellent Non - ferrous Metal Industry Team of the Shanghai Futures Exchange in 2016 [43]. - Wang Heng, a master of finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching aluminum and silicon [44]. - Zhu Xi, a master of science from the University of Warwick, UK, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on lithium and nickel [44].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - In April, lithium carbonate production scheduling was basically stable, cathode production scheduling increased slightly, and the supply - demand gap narrowed. Social inventories continued to accumulate, and downstream raw material inventories were at a high level. Short - term downstream purchases were mainly for刚需, and production still adopted long - term order and customer - supplied models. It is expected that the futures price will be mainly in a weak and volatile state [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lithium Compounds - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price was 71,450 yuan, down 100 yuan; SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price was 69,650 yuan, unchanged [1]. Lithium Futures Contracts - The closing prices and changes of lithium carbonate futures contracts on April 21, 2025 were as follows: Li2505 was 70,320 yuan, down 0.28%; Li2506 was 70,260 yuan, down 0.26%; Li2507 was 70,180 yuan, down 0.34%; Li2508 was 71,300 yuan, down 0.11%; Li2509 was 71,460 yuan, down 0.2% [1]. Lithium Ore - The average price of spodumene concentrate (CIF China) was 808 yuan, down 1 yuan. The prices of different types of lithium mica and lithium - aluminum phosphate ore also had corresponding changes [1][2]. Cathode Materials - The average prices of cathode materials such as lithium iron phosphate (power type), ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type), ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type), and ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) all decreased to varying degrees [2]. Price Spreads - The price spreads between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract, and among different - term futures contracts all had corresponding changes [2]. Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) was 131,605 tons, with inventory in smelters, downstream, and other sectors changing differently. The registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) were 29,562 tons, an increase of 300 tons [2]. Production Profit - The cash cost of purchasing spodumene concentrate externally was 74,466 yuan, with a profit of - 3,998 yuan; the cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate externally was 76,596 yuan, with a profit of - 7,845 yuan [2]. Other News - CATL was approved to list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with an expected fundraising of at least $5 billion (about 36.5 billion yuan). The funds will be used for overseas capacity expansion and international business development [2]. - A lithium ore exploration right in Hotan, Xinjiang was successfully auctioned at a price of 500.196 million yuan, with a premium rate of 12,906% [2].