Core Viewpoint - The white sugar futures market experienced a slight decline, with the main contract dropping by 0.38% to close at 5496.00 yuan, following a rapid decrease that saw it hit a low of 5490.00 yuan [1][2]. Group 1: Market Analysis - Nanhua Futures indicates that the short-term upward momentum for sugar prices is limited due to the impact of recent typhoons on sugarcane production in Guangxi, despite an increase in planting area and overseas supply pressure [3]. - Guotou Anxin Futures emphasizes the importance of monitoring weather conditions and sugarcane growth, noting that production data from Brazil remains bearish, with an increase in sugar output year-on-year [4]. - Zhongcai Futures forecasts a period of price fluctuations for sugar, citing early sales in the current crushing season and low industrial inventory levels, while also highlighting the pressure from international markets and the need to observe raw sugar price trends [5].

Core Insights - Sugar prices have recently increased, with NY sugar reaching a 4-week high and London sugar a 1.5-week high, supported by a weaker dollar and stronger global demand, particularly from Pakistan's order of 320,000 MT of sugar for immediate delivery [1] Group 1: Market Trends - NY sugar futures hit a 4.25-year low last Tuesday, while London sugar reached a 4-year low, continuing a 7-month downtrend due to expectations of abundant global sugar supplies [2] - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) forecasts a global sugar deficit for the 2025/26 season, marking the sixth consecutive year of deficits, with a projected deficit of -231,000 MT, an improvement from -4.88 MMT in 2024/25 [5] Group 2: Production Insights - Brazil's sugar output increased by +18% year-on-year in the second half of August, totaling 3.872 MT, with the percentage of sugarcane crushed for sugar rising to 54.20% from 48.78% the previous year [3] - Cumulative sugar output in Brazil for the 2025-26 season through August fell by -1.9% year-on-year to 26.758 MMT [3] Group 3: Supply Dynamics - India may divert 4 MMT of sugar for ethanol production in 2025/26, which may not alleviate the country's sugar surplus and could lead to exports of up to 4 MMT, exceeding earlier expectations of 2 MMT [4] - Expectations for abundant sugar supplies are reinforced by projections of a 7.5 MMT global sugar surplus for the 2025/26 season, the largest in 8 years, and a record global sugar production forecast of 189.318 MMT, up +4.7% year-on-year [6]

Group 1: Sugar Production and Market Trends - Brazil's cumulative sugar output for the week of September 4, 2025, reached 2.9159 million tons, down from 3.8795 million tons in September of the previous year, with an average daily shipment of 145,800 tons, a decrease of 21.08% compared to last year's 184,700 tons [1] - The new sugar season in Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang has commenced, with expectations for new sugar to be available for sale next week, potentially putting pressure on the spot market [3] - The Brazilian sugar production ratio remains high for the 2025/26 season, significantly above historical levels, indicating a strong preference for sugar production among Brazilian mills [4] Group 2: Import and Pricing Dynamics - Pakistan has procured 80,000 tons of sugar through tender and is set to procure an additional 100,000 tons, indicating strong demand in the region [2] - The cost of Brazilian sugar imports is significantly lower than domestic prices in Guangxi, with quota-included sugar costing 4,482 RMB/ton (15% tariff) and quota-excluded sugar at 5,709 RMB/ton (50% tariff), showing a price difference of 1,408 RMB/ton and 181 RMB/ton respectively [2] - Domestic sugar market sentiment is cautious, with overall trading activity expected to remain weak as the holiday stocking period concludes [3][4]

Core Insights - Sugar prices have recently increased, reaching 1.5-week highs due to dollar weakness, which has led to short-covering in sugar futures [1] Group 1: Sugar Market Trends - NY sugar futures reached a 4.25-year low last Tuesday, while London sugar hit a 4-year low, continuing a 7-month downtrend driven by expectations of abundant global sugar supplies [2] - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) forecasts a global sugar deficit for the 2025/26 season, marking the sixth consecutive year of deficits, with a projected shortfall of -231,000 MT, an improvement from -4.88 MMT in 2024/25 [5] Group 2: Production and Supply Factors - Brazil's sugar output in the second half of August increased by +18% year-on-year to 3.872 MT, with the percentage of sugarcane crushed for sugar rising to 54.20% from 48.78% the previous year [3] - The USDA projects a record global sugar production of 189.318 MMT for the 2025/26 season, a +4.7% year-on-year increase, with ending stocks expected to rise by 7.5% to 41.188 MMT [6] Group 3: Global Supply Dynamics - India may divert 4 MMT of sugar for ethanol production in 2025/26, which may not alleviate the country's sugar surplus and could lead to increased exports of up to 4 MMT, exceeding earlier expectations of 2 MMT [4] - StoneX has projected a global sugar surplus of +2.8 MMT for the 2025/26 season, a shift from a deficit of -4.7 MMT in the 2024/25 season [2]

Market Review - On Thursday evening, white sugar futures fell by 0.05% to 5494 CNY/ton, while raw sugar rose by 0.99 the previous night [1] Fundamental Summary - The Indian Sugar and Bioenergy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) has urged the government to raise the minimum selling price (MSP) for sugar for the 2025-26 crushing season to at least 40.2 INR per kilogram, an increase of approximately 9 INR from the current level [2] - Stonex forecasts a global sugar surplus of 2.77 million tons for the 2025-26 season starting in October, compared to a shortage of 4.67 million tons for the 2024-25 season [2] - According to data from Brazilian shipping agency Williams, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports was 76 as of the week ending September 24, down from 85 the previous week. The quantity of sugar waiting for shipment at ports was 3.1039 million tons, down from 3.2827 million tons the previous week [2] Institutional Views - Dongwu Futures indicates that Brazil is experiencing a supply peak, with a significant increase in sugar production in the second half of August, which continues to pressure sugar prices. The expectation of increased domestic production for the new crushing season remains unchanged, and the import of sugar syrup and premixed powder continues to rise, leading to increasing supply pressure. The traditional demand peak is nearing its end, with general domestic spot transactions, and futures prices are supported by inventory, expected to continue in a range-bound fluctuation [3] - Minmetals Futures notes that due to record high domestic imports in August and a significant year-on-year increase in sugar production in Brazil's central-south region, Zheng sugar has broken down, maintaining a bearish outlook on sugar prices. However, from a technical perspective, a significant increase in positions but a decrease in trading volume and narrowing price declines are unfavorable for further declines, suggesting a wait-and-see approach before the National Day holiday [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of various agricultural products including protein meal, oils and fats, sugar, cotton, eggs, and pigs, and provides corresponding trading strategies based on the current supply - demand situation, cost factors, and future expectations of each product [3][5][8][11][14][17][20]. Summary by Related Catalogs Protein Meal - **Market Condition**: On Tuesday, US soybeans rose slightly due to trade optimism and recent drought. Domestic soybean meal spot prices increased by 20 yuan/ton, with the East China basis at 01 - 110 remaining unchanged. The downstream inventory days increased by 0.42 days to 9.22 days last week. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories were almost unchanged week - on - week and at a high level in recent years year - on - year [3]. - **Cost Analysis**: The cost of imported soybeans is supported by the undervaluation of US soybeans, Sino - US trade relations, and Brazilian planting season trading, but it also faces pressure from the global protein raw material supply surplus, potential expansion of Brazilian planting area, and possible short - term supply surplus if Sino - US relations ease [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: The cost of imported soybeans has maintained a weak and stable trend recently. The domestic soybean meal market has high - level提货. It is expected that the spot side may start to destock in September, supporting the oil mill's crushing profit. The soybean meal should be mainly operated in a range - bound manner, waiting for a driving factor to choose a direction [5]. Oils and Fats - **Important Information**: From September 1 - 10, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil exports decreased by 1.2% - 8.43%, and the output decreased by 3.17% month - on - month. Brazil's soybean exports in September are expected to reach 753 million tons. The price of edible oils including palm oil is expected to be firm in 2025 and 2026 due to supply lagging behind demand. On Tuesday, the three major domestic oils were strong, with stable demand from importing countries, low inventory in Southeast Asia, and unstable supply in Indonesia providing continuous positive factors [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Low inventory of vegetable oils in India and Southeast Asian producing areas, the US biodiesel policy draft boosting soybean oil demand, limited production increase potential of Southeast Asian palm oil, and the expected decline in exportable volume due to increasing biodiesel consumption in Indonesia support the price center of oils. Oils are in a state of balanced or slightly loose current supply - demand and tight expected supply. They are expected to be in a medium - term upward trend. With the current high valuation, the strategy is to buy on dips and stabilization [8]. Sugar - **Key Information**: On Tuesday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price continued to fluctuate. The closing price of the January contract was 5547 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton or 0.04% from the previous trading day. The sugar yield and sugar content in Brazil's central - southern region in August decreased compared to the same period in 2024 [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Both the domestic and international sugar markets are bearish. The domestic sugar price is expected to continue to decline, and if Brazil's sugar production continues to increase from August to October, the domestic sugar price may reach a new low [11]. Cotton - **Key Information**: On Tuesday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price continued to fluctuate. The closing price of the January contract was 13895 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton or 0.07% from the previous trading day. The开机率 of the downstream textile industry has increased but is still lower than the same period in previous years. The domestic cotton inventory is at a low level, and the US cotton has a high excellent rate and a normal harvest rate [13]. - **Trading Strategy**: With the consumption peak season approaching, the downstream开机率 is increasing, but the inventory is low and there is an expected increase in production in the long - term. The short - term cotton price is expected to continue to fluctuate [14]. Eggs - **Spot Information**: The national egg price was stable with some increases. The average price in the main producing areas rose 0.07 yuan to 3.74 yuan/jin. The supply is sufficient, and the market demand is stable [16]. - **Trading Strategy**: The supply base is still large, and there is a large amount of cold - stored eggs. After a short - term increase, the spot price may fall back. However, after the large - scale culling of laying hens, the supply pressure decreases. It is recommended to wait and see, and consider short - term long positions in the far - month contracts when there is a large increase in positions after a price decline [17]. Pigs - **Spot Information**: The domestic pig price continued to fall. The average price in Henan decreased by 0.17 yuan to 13.19 yuan/kg, and in Sichuan, it decreased by 0.13 yuan to 12.74 yuan/kg. The demand is average, and the slaughter volume is stable. The pig price is expected to continue to be weak [19]. - **Trading Strategy**: The planned slaughter volume is large in September, but there are potential supporting factors such as consumption, weight gain, and state reserves. The spot price may fluctuate in a narrow range. The futures price has fallen continuously, and it is not cost - effective to short further. Pay attention to the possibility of a rebound due to policies and consumption, and short - sell after the rebound. The far - month reverse spread strategy continues [20].

1. Report Information - Report Title: Sugar Daily Report - Date: September 5, 2025 - Researcher: Wang Haifeng, Lin Zhenlei, Yu Lanlan, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] 2. Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report. 3. Core View - The sugar market is facing downward pressure. In the international market, the good weather in Brazil is conducive to sugarcane harvesting, and the increase in Brazilian sugar production suppresses sugar prices. The decline in oil prices also has a negative impact on sugar prices. In the domestic market, the increase in imported sugar and syrup premixes, the upcoming listing of new - season beet sugar in Xinjiang in September, and the weak demand from downstream food and beverage enterprises all contribute to the downward trend of sugar prices. Additionally, the shift of speculative funds from long to short and the potential for further short - position increases exacerbate the decline [7][8]. 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **International Market**: On Wednesday, New York raw sugar futures weakened slightly. The主力 October contract closed down 0.62% at 16.05 cents per pound, and the London ICE white sugar futures'主力 October contract closed down 1.3% at $484.40 per ton. The good weather in Brazil is favorable for sugarcane harvesting, and the large - scale production of Brazilian sugar suppresses sugar prices. The decline in oil prices also has a negative impact on sugar prices [7]. - **Domestic Market**: The domestic Zhengzhou sugar futures'主力 contract continued to weaken. The SR601 contract closed at 5,533 yuan per ton, down 36 yuan or 0.65%, with an increase of 7,114 positions. The spot prices in domestic production areas declined. The fundamental negative factors include the increase in imported sugar and syrup premixes, the upcoming listing of new - season beet sugar in Xinjiang in September, and the insufficient demand from downstream food and beverage enterprises. After - market analysis shows that speculative funds have shifted from long to short and may further increase short positions, accelerating the price decline [8]. 4.2 Industry News - **India**: The chairman of the National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories (NFCSF) in India stated that the export parity price of white sugar should be $500 per ton, and that of raw sugar should be over $19 per ton [9]. - **Brazil**: As of August 16 in the 25/26 sugar - crushing season, the ethanol inventory in the central - southern region was 5.52 billion liters, a 15.6% increase from the previous month but a 29.5% decrease compared to the same period in 2024. In terms of inventory structure, 58.7% is hydrous ethanol and 41.3% is anhydrous ethanol. The ethanol inventory in São Paulo, the largest production and consumption state, was 2.92 billion liters, a 16.8% increase from the previous month and a 30.3% decrease year - on - year. In July 2025, the Brazilian fuel market showed a continuous decline in ethanol consumption and a slight recovery in gasoline demand. The sales volume of hydrous ethanol in July was 1.65 billion liters, a 6.1% decrease year - on - year and a 0.3% decrease from the previous month; the gasoline sales volume was 3.78 billion liters, a 0.8% increase year - on - year and a 3% increase from the previous month. From the cumulative data, the ethanol consumption in the first seven months of 2025 was 12.23 billion liters, a 2.2% decrease compared to the same period in 2024; the cumulative gasoline sales volume was 26.06 billion liters, a 3.5% increase year - on - year. As of the week of August 27, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports was 72, up from 70 in the previous week. The quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped was 2.7221 million tons, down from 2.9169 million tons in the previous week [9]. 4.3 Data Overview - **Futures Market Data**: The report provides data on futures contracts such as SR601, SR605, US Sugar 10, and US Sugar 03, including closing prices, price changes, price change percentages, open interest, and changes in open interest [7]. - **Position Data**: The report shows the trading volume and position data of the top 20 members in the SR605 contract on September 4, 2025, including trading volume, long - position quantity, and short - position quantity and their changes [25].

Group 1 - Brazil's sugar production for the 2025/26 season is projected at 44.5 million tons, down from the previous estimate of 45.9 million tons in April [1] - Brazil's sugarcane production for the same season is expected to be 668.8 million tons, slightly up from the April estimate of 663.4 million tons [1] - Pakistan's TCP has preliminarily purchased 30,000 tons of white sugar in a recent international tender for 200,000 tons [1] Group 2 - Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange's white sugar futures warehouse receipts decreased by 70 to 15,316 contracts compared to the previous trading day [2] - International sugar market is expected to maintain a volatile trend due to increased supply from Brazil, while domestic sugar prices are supported by high production and sales rates [3] - Domestic sugar prices may face downward pressure from increasing import sugar, as observed in recent trading activities [3]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Sugar Daily Report [1] - Date: August 27, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Wang Haifeng, Lin Zhenlei, Yu Lanlan, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided. Group 3: Core Viewpoints - New York raw sugar futures weakened on Monday, with the main October contract down 0.55% to 16.39 cents per pound. The London ICE white sugar futures were closed. The relatively calm fundamentals of raw sugar, the increase in sugar production due to better weather in Brazil, and the strong production increase expectations in the Northern Hemisphere are suppressing sugar prices [7]. - Zhengzhou sugar's main contract tumbled yesterday. The 01 contract closed at 5,632 yuan per ton, down 53 yuan or 0.93%, with a reduction of 1,534 lots. The spot prices in domestic producing areas declined. The sharp drop in Zhengzhou sugar 01 in the afternoon was due to capital pressure, with no obvious changes in fundamentals. The pressure of imported sugar will gradually increase, suppressing domestic sugar prices [8]. Group 4: Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market Conditions**: SR509 closed at 5,678 yuan per ton, down 0.89% with a decrease of 3,568 lots; SR601 closed at 5,632 yuan per ton, down 0.93% with a decrease of 1,534 lots. The main October contract of New York raw sugar futures was down 0.55% to 16.39 cents per pound [7]. - **Analysis of Market Trends**: The relatively calm fundamentals of raw sugar, the increase in sugar production due to better weather in Brazil, and the strong production increase expectations in the Northern Hemisphere are suppressing sugar prices. The sharp drop in Zhengzhou sugar 01 in the afternoon was due to capital pressure, with no obvious changes in fundamentals [7][8]. 2. Industry News - **ICE Position Data**: As of the week ending August 19, the total open interest of ICE raw sugar futures + options was 1,038,222 contracts, a decrease of 2,291 contracts from the previous week. Speculative long positions decreased by 11,403 contracts to 179,365 contracts, and speculative short positions increased by 4,227 contracts to 310,352 contracts. The net speculative short position increased by 15,630 contracts to 130,987 contracts [9]. - **Inventory in Guangxi**: As of August 20, the inventory of sugar in third - party warehouses in Guangxi was about 770,000 tons, an increase of about 310,000 tons compared with the same period last year, slightly lower than the average level of the past five years. The inventory in August decreased by about 140,000 tons compared with July, and the destocking speed slowed down significantly [9]. - **Brazilian Port Shipping Data**: As of the week ending August 20, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports was 70, down from 76 in the previous week. The quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped was 2.9169 million tons, a decrease of 401,000 tons or 12.08% from the previous week [9]. - **Syrup and Premixed Powder Imports in July**: In July, China imported 45,400 tons of syrup and white sugar premixed powder under tariff number 1702.90, a year - on - year decrease of 182,800 tons or 80.12%. The average CIF price was 3,373.30 yuan per ton, a decrease of 292.96 yuan per ton from the previous month and a year - on - year decrease of 294.70 yuan per ton, at a relatively low level in the same period of the past six years [9]. - **Weather Impact on Sugarcane**: Since mid - July, the light, temperature, and water conditions in most sugarcane areas in China have been well - matched, which is beneficial to the elongation of sugarcane stems. Affected by typhoons and monsoon troughs, some sugarcane areas have suffered from strong winds, heavy rains, waterlogging, and lodging disasters, affecting the normal growth of sugarcane. It is expected that the overall meteorological conditions in Guangxi in the next 30 days will be favorable for sugarcane stem elongation, but field management and pest control need to be strengthened [9]. 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple charts including spot trends, 2509 contract basis, SR9 - 1 spread, Brazilian raw sugar import profit, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange warehouse receipts, Brazilian real exchange rate, and the trading and holding positions of the top 20 seats of Zhengzhou sugar's main contract, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures [11][15][18].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the sugar market is experiencing fluctuations due to varying production levels and market dynamics, with domestic sugar prices being supported by low inventory levels despite potential pressure from processing sugar [1][3]. Group 2 - As of August 15, the spot market for white sugar in Kunming remains stable, with prices ranging from 5810 to 5820 CNY per ton, consistent with previous quotes [1]. - The futures market shows the main white sugar contract closing at 5664.00 CNY per ton on August 15, with a slight increase of 0.07% [1]. - The Brazilian sugar industry reports a 15% year-on-year increase in sugar production for the first half of July, reaching 3.4 million tons, with a higher proportion of sugarcane being used for sugar production [2]. - The number of white sugar futures warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange decreased by 245 to 17,284 on August 14 [2]. - According to research from Shenwan Hongyuan Futures, the global sugar market is expected to maintain a volatile trend due to increased sugar supply from Brazil, while domestic sugar prices are supported by high production and sales rates despite potential downward pressure from processing sugar [3].