Core Insights - Sugar prices are experiencing downward pressure due to a decline in the Brazilian real, which has fallen to a 7-week low against the dollar, promoting export sales from Brazil's sugar producers [1] - India's sugar production has surged, with a reported increase of +43% year-on-year to 4.11 million metric tons (MMT) for the October-November period, contributing to lower sugar prices [2] - Brazil's sugar production outlook remains bearish, with Conab raising its 2025/26 sugar production estimate to 45 MMT, and a reported increase of +8.7% year-on-year in the first half of November [3] Price Movements - Sugar prices reached 6-week highs last Friday due to concerns over tighter global supplies, but recent adjustments in production estimates have contributed to price volatility [4] - India's food ministry's decision to allow mills to export 1.5 MMT of sugar in the 2025/26 season, down from earlier estimates of 2 MMT, provides some support for sugar prices [5] Production Forecasts - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) forecasts a sugar surplus of 1.625 million MT for 2025-26, driven by increased production in India, Thailand, and Pakistan, contrasting with a previous deficit forecast [6] - Global sugar production is expected to rise by +3.2% year-on-year to 181.8 million MT in 2025-26, indicating a significant increase in supply [6]

Core Viewpoint - The sugar prices in Guangxi are experiencing a downward trend due to increasing new sugar supply, leading to a shift from profit to loss for sugar factories [1][2][6]. Supply and Demand Analysis - In mid-November, the sugar price in Guangxi peaked at 5725 yuan/ton due to low inventory levels, but as new sugar supply increased, prices fell below 5000 yuan/ton by December 2, averaging 5475 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.86% month-on-month and 10.32% year-on-year [2]. - The overall sugar production in Guangxi for the 2024/25 season is projected at 6.465 million tons, accounting for approximately 57.92% of the national total, with a slight increase expected in the following season despite adverse weather conditions [4]. - The number of sugar factories operating in Guangxi has decreased by 22 year-on-year, impacting the supply dynamics [4]. Cost and Profitability - The theoretical sugar production cost remains high, with an average cost of 5624 yuan/ton against a selling price of 5465 yuan/ton, resulting in an average theoretical loss of 158.6 yuan/ton for sugar factories [6]. - The expected sugarcane purchase price is 510 yuan/ton, with a sugar production rate of 12.85%, indicating a challenging profitability environment for sugar producers [6]. Seasonal Trends - Historically, December has shown a high probability of price declines, and despite an increase in both supply and demand, the supply growth is anticipated to outpace demand growth, leading to a potential price drop [8]. - The expected price range for white sugar in Guangxi for December is between 5380-5550 yuan/ton, influenced by increased supply from local sugar factories and other regions [8].

Core Viewpoint - The sugar prices in Guangxi are experiencing a downward trend due to increasing new sugar supply, leading to a shift from profit to loss for sugar factories [1][2][6]. Group 1: Sugar Supply and Pricing Trends - In mid-November, sugar prices in Guangxi peaked at 5725 yuan/ton due to low inventory levels, but prices have since fallen below 5000 yuan/ton by December 2, with an average price of 5475 yuan/ton, reflecting a 3.86% decrease month-on-month and a 10.32% decrease year-on-year [2][4]. - The number of sugar factories in Guangxi has increased, contributing to a steady rise in new sugar supply, which is expected to continue in the upcoming season, leading to increased sales pressure on sugar factories [2][4]. Group 2: Production and Cost Analysis - The theoretical sugar production cost in Guangxi remains high at 5624 yuan/ton, while the average selling price is 5465 yuan/ton, resulting in an average theoretical loss of 158.6 yuan/ton for sugar factories as of December 3 [6][7]. - The expected sugar production for the 2024/25 season is 646.5 million tons, accounting for approximately 57.92% of the national total, with a slight increase in production anticipated for the 2025/26 season despite adverse weather conditions [4][6]. Group 3: Seasonal Price Fluctuations - Historically, December has shown a high probability of price declines in the sugar market, and despite an increase in both supply and demand, the anticipated supply growth is expected to outpace demand growth, leading to a potential price drop [9]. - The expected price range for white sugar in Guangxi for December is between 5380 and 5550 yuan/ton, with increased supply from sugar factories and a gradual reduction in processed sugar supply [9].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating Group 2: Core View of the Report - The domestic sugar market is expected to see sugar prices fluctuate mainly. The early bearish factors in the market have been basically digested, and the pessimistic sentiment has eased. The late - opening of sugar cane in Guangxi has brought low - priced sugar sources to the market, driving down the price of Yunnan sugar. Although processed sugar and beet sugar have some impact, their prices are relatively firm, providing some support for Guangxi sugar prices [2] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for sugar was 5366 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan; the main contract position volume was 330,181 lots, down 8,305 lots; the number of sugar warehouse receipts was 0, unchanged; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 52,892 lots, up 2,501 lots; the total effective warehouse receipt forecast was 183, unchanged [2] Spot Market - The estimated import - processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota was 4,121 yuan/ton, up 48 yuan; that of Thai sugar within the quota was 4,167 yuan/ton, up 47 yuan. The estimated price of imported Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 5,223 yuan/ton, up 62 yuan; that of imported Thai sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 5,283 yuan/ton. The spot price of sugar in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,410 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,460 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Liuzhou, Guangxi was 5,525 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop planting area was 1,480 thousand hectares, up 60 thousand hectares; the planting area of sugar cane in Guangxi was 840.33 thousand hectares, up 5.24 thousand hectares [2] Industry Situation - The cumulative national sugar production was 1,116.21 million tons, up 5.49 million tons; the cumulative sales volume of cane sugar in Guangxi was 602.29 million tons, up 26.66 million tons; the cumulative production of cane sugar in Yunnan was 241.88 million tons, unchanged. Brazil's total sugar export volume was 420.5 million tons, up 95.92 million tons. The import volume of sugar in the current month was 75 million tons, up 20 million tons; the cumulative import volume was 390 million tons, up 74 million tons [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly production of refined sugar was 88.3 million tons, up 34.39 million tons; the monthly production of soft drinks was 1,096.2 million tons, down 495.5 million tons [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar was 8.76%, up 1.69%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for sugar was 8.76%, up 1.69%. The 20 - day historical volatility of sugar was 6.73%, up 0.06%; the 60 - day historical volatility was 6.85%, up 0.03% [2] Industry News - As of November 30, 2025, India had crushed 48.6 million tons of sugar cane (33.4 million tons in the same period last year), producing 4.135 million tons of sugar (2.76 million tons in the same period last year), and the average sugar yield was 8.51%, up from 8.27% in the same period last year. ICE's most actively traded March raw sugar futures rose 0.22 cents or 1.50%, settling at 14.98 cents per pound [2]

白糖产业日报 2025-11-27 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货主力合约收盘价:白糖(日,元/吨) | 5403 | 24 主力合约持仓量:白糖(日,手) | 377132 | -16948 | | 期货市场 | 仓单数量:白糖(日,张) | 75 | -7618 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:白糖(日,手) | -62872 | -228 | | | 有效仓单预报:白糖:小计(日,张) | 183 | 0 | | | | | 进口加工估算价(配额内):巴西糖(日,元/ | 4114 | 11 进口加工估算价(配额内):泰国糖(日,元/ | 4163 | 11 | | 现货市场 | 吨) 进口巴糖估算价(配额外,50%关税)(日,元 | | 吨) | | 13 | | | | 5214 | 14 进口泰糖估算价(配额外,50%关税)(日,元 | 5277 | | | | /吨) 云南昆明白糖现货价格(日,元/吨) | 5455 | /吨) -25 广西南宁白糖现货价格(日 ...

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10月下半月，巴西中南部地区甘蔗入榨量为3110.8万吨，同比增长14.34%；制糖比为46.02%，较去年同期的45.91%上升0.11个百分点；产糖量为206.8万吨， 同比增长16.4%。截至10月下半月，巴西中南部地区累计甘蔗入榨量为55602.9万吨，同比下降1.97%；制糖比为51.97%，较去年同期的48.59%上升3.38个百 分点；产糖量为3808.5万吨，同比增长1.63%。实际产量数据和市场预期基本一致，丰产仍在榨季末期延续。 需要注意的是，制糖比相比前期有所下滑，市场担忧制糖比快速下滑对整体产量的影响。目前市场普遍预期2025/2026榨季巴西中南部地区糖产量将在4050 万～4150万吨之间，维持丰产格局。展望2026/2027榨季，更多甘蔗或转向乙醇生产，预计巴西中南部地区糖产量回落至4000万吨附近。此外，圣保罗地区 持续干旱，可能影响2026/2027榨季甘蔗生物量积累，需持续跟踪。 [巴西丰产带来高出口] 受干旱天气和宿根蔗经历火灾的影响，巴西2025/2026榨季前期显示甘蔗质量不佳，但是被不断创纪录的超高制糖比所弥补。巴西国家商品供应公司 （Conab）发布的巴西2025 ...

Report Title - "Guangxi Delays Sugar Cane Crushing, Zhengzhou Sugar Futures Trade Strongly - Guoxin Futures Weekly Sugar Report" [2] Report Date - November 14, 2025 [2] 1. Sugar Market Analysis Futures Price Trends - Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (ZCE) sugar futures prices had a slight weekly increase of 0.24%, while ICE sugar futures continued to stop falling and stabilize, with a weekly increase of 1.53% [11] Spot Price and Basis Trends - Not provided with specific summary content, only data sources mentioned [15][16] Sales in Guangxi and Yunnan - Not provided with specific summary content, only data sources mentioned [20][21] Sugar Imports - In September, sugar imports were 550,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 150,000 tons. Based on the ICE March sugar contract price of 14.5 cents per pound, the in - quota import cost from Brazil was 4,019 yuan per ton, and the out - of - quota import cost was 5,090 yuan per ton; from Thailand, the in - quota import cost was 4,078 yuan per ton, and the out - of - quota import cost was 5,166 yuan per ton [25] Domestic Industrial Inventory - In the 2024/25 sugar - crushing season, the industrial inventory in September was about 682,000 tons, an increase of 324,800 tons compared to the same period last year [28] ZCE Warehouse Receipts and Valid Forecasts - This week, the total of ZCE sugar warehouse receipts and forecasts was 8,904, a decrease of 104 compared to the previous week. The number of warehouse receipts was 7,721, and the valid forecasts were 1,183 [36] Brazil's Production Progress - In the first half of October, the cumulative sugar - cane crushing volume was 525 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.78%, and the sugar production was 36.016 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.89% [40] Brazil's Bi - weekly Sugar - making Ratio - The cumulative sugar - making ratio of sugar cane in the central - southern region of Brazil was 52.36%, compared to 48.74% in the same period last year [45] Brazil's Monthly Sugar Exports - In October, Brazil's sugar exports were 4.205 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.8% [49] International Main - producing Region Weather Conditions - In Brazil, the main producing areas had abundant rainfall, which was unfavorable for sugar - cane crushing. In India, there was little change in precipitation [55][56] 2. Market Outlook Domestic Market - In terms of the crushing schedule, no sugar mills in Guangxi have started crushing. Sugar - making enterprises in Guangxi agreed not to start production before November 30, 2025. Currently, the pre - sale quotes of enterprises have been lowered to the level of the 2601 contract, and the consumption situation is not optimistic. However, due to the further digestion of old sugar, most sugar groups in Guangxi have cleared their inventories, and the delay of new - sugar listing has increased the market's upward expectations. But from the futures price chart, the resistance around 5,500 yuan per ton for Zhengzhou sugar is effective. Although the futures price briefly broke through the 5,500 - yuan mark with increased trading volume and open interest in the later part of the week, it then reduced open interest and failed to stay above this level. With sufficient overall domestic supply, it is difficult for Zhengzhou sugar to break out of the recent trading range, and attention should be paid to import data [59] International Market - ICE sugar futures prices have stopped falling and stabilized around 14 cents per pound, with short - covering at low prices. In terms of consumption, the market is relatively optimistic about low - price purchases, and there are also signs of Chinese purchases. In terms of global supply and demand, recent institutions have slightly lowered their production forecasts for India and Brazil, reducing the estimated supply surplus for the 2025/26 season, which has provided some support for sugar prices. International sugar prices are bottom - fishing in the short term [59] Operation Suggestion - Mainly conduct short - term trading [60]

Core Viewpoint - Sugar futures market shows a strong performance with the main contract rising by 0.46% to 5475.00 CNY/ton as of November 10 [1] News Summary - On November 6, Indian officials indicated that the sugar export quota for the new fiscal year may be increased to 2 million tons due to a decrease in sugar available for ethanol production, leading to a surplus of exportable sugar [2] - On November 7, the cost of imported sugar from Brazil under the quota was 3903 CNY/ton (with a 15% tariff), which is 1857 CNY/ton lower than the price in Guangxi; outside the quota, the cost was 4954 CNY/ton (with a 50% tariff), 806 CNY/ton lower than Guangxi prices [2] - On November 7, the price of first-grade white sugar in Liuzhou, Guangxi was 5760 CNY/ton, unchanged week-on-week; in Kunming, Yunnan, it was 5650 CNY/ton, down 60 CNY/ton week-on-week [2] Institutional Views - Zhongcai Futures suggests that short-term spot prices may stabilize and rise slightly due to the increase in futures prices, but overall trading activity remains average; medium to long-term factors such as increased global and domestic supply and adjustments in import policies may limit sugar price increases [3] - Shenyin Wanguo Futures notes that the global sugar market is entering a phase of inventory accumulation with increased sugar supply from Brazil; while the sugar production ratio has slightly decreased, it remains high; recent declines in Brazilian oil prices have led to lower ethanol prices, causing a downward shift in white sugar prices [3] - The domestic market is influenced by the increase in import profits, which may weigh on Zheng sugar prices; however, as the new crushing season approaches, cost support may help stabilize prices; market sentiment driven by rumors has already been reflected in the futures market, with expectations of a range-bound trading pattern for Zheng sugar in the short term [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Internationally, the sugar production in major global producing areas is increasing. Brazil's sugar production is at a historically high level, and India may export more sugar than expected, leading to a weak fundamental situation for raw sugar with a downward long - term trend [3]. - In the domestic market, short - term sugar production is expected to increase, and international sugar prices have dropped significantly. Although the supply and sales pressure is increasing, the tightening of syrup and premix imports and high previous pricing costs support the domestic sugar price. So, the Zhengzhou sugar price is expected to fluctuate in the short term. In the long run, it will be affected by the international market and is expected to be weak, but the downward space is relatively limited due to policy support [4]. Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies Core Logic - International sugar prices are weak due to high production in Brazil and potential high - volume exports from India. Domestic sugar prices are affected by both international factors and domestic policies, with short - term fluctuations and long - term weakness [3][4]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: International sugar prices have ended the rebound and resumed the downward trend. Domestic sugar prices are expected to fluctuate, so it is recommended to operate within the range, selling high and covering low [5]. - Arbitrage: Short US raw sugar and long domestic Zhengzhou sugar [5]. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money call options [5]. Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis International Supply - Demand Pattern Changes - In the 2025/26 sugar season, the global sugar supply - demand gap is significantly narrowing. ISO predicts a 23.1 - million - ton supply gap, while Czarnikow predicts a 740 - million - ton supply surplus [11]. Brazil - Sugar production is expected to remain high at 4502 million tons in the 2025/26 season, slightly higher than the previous estimate [12]. - In the first half of October 2025, the bi - weekly sugar - making ratio in the central - southern region decreased by 3 percentage points to 48.24%, and ethanol production showed a mixed trend [14]. - As of October 16, 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the central - southern region increased by 0.89% year - on - year, and the ethanol price center of gravity is expected to decline due to the gasoline price cut [23]. - As of the first half of October, the sugar inventory in the central - southern region increased by 18.2% year - on - year, and the export volume in October increased by 12.8% year - on - year [28]. Thailand - The new sugar season is expected to see a slight increase in production, and the export volume is expected to increase by 100 million tons [32]. India - The ISMA estimates the 2025/26 sugar season's total production at 3435 million tons, and the net production (excluding ethanol use) at 3095 million tons. India is capable of exporting nearly 200 million tons of sugar [41]. - As of July 2025, the 24/25 cumulative net export volume was 75.08 million tons. The November 2025 domestic sales quota decreased by 20 million tons year - on - year [41]. Domestic Market - Sugar mills in Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang have mostly started production. Rainfall may increase beet yield but reduce sugar content. Yunnan's sugar mills may start production in mid - November [42]. - Import profits are relatively high. For example, the in - quota profit from Brazil is 1750 yuan/ton, and the out - of - quota profit is over 600 yuan/ton [47]. - In September 2025, China imported 55 million tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 14.63 million tons. The import of syrup and premix decreased significantly. The predicted out - of - quota raw sugar arrival in October is 11.9 million tons [53]. Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking - Data on Brazil's central - southern region includes cumulative cane crushing volume, sugar production, bi - weekly sugar - making ratio, etc. [23][55]. - Data on India includes double - week cumulative sugar production, domestic sales quota, and export volume [41]. - Domestic data includes sugar production progress, import volume of sugar, syrup, and premix [42][53].