Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Internationally, as Brazil is approaching its supply peak, the global sugar inventory is expected to enter an accumulation phase. The raw sugar market is predicted to remain volatile in the long - term, with short - term trends influenced by production data. Attention should be paid to Brazil's production progress and actual increase in output. Domestically, the fast sales pace may support sugar prices, but the upcoming large - scale import of sugar may drag prices down. In the short term, domestic sugar prices are expected to remain volatile [3]. - Raw sugar is affected by the global supply - demand relaxation expectation and is likely to remain weak in the short term, with potential buying support at lower levels. In contrast, the faster domestic sales rhythm supports spot prices. However, due to the short - term weakness of raw sugar, the rising profit of out - of - quota imports, and the upcoming processing sugar supply pressure, Zhengzhou sugar is expected to passively follow the raw sugar price fluctuations [4]. Summary According to Related Catalogs Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies Comprehensive Analysis - International: With Brazil's approaching supply peak, the global sugar inventory is expected to accumulate. Raw sugar will generally maintain a volatile trend, and short - term trends depend on production data. Attention should be paid to Brazil's production progress and actual increase [3]. - Domestic: The fast sales pace may support sugar prices, but the large - scale import of sugar may drag prices down. Short - term sugar prices are expected to remain volatile [3]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: In the short term, Zhengzhou sugar will passively follow raw sugar and remain volatile [5]. - Arbitrage: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [5]. - Options: Use out - of - the - money ratio spread options [5]. Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis International Supply - Demand Pattern Changes - 24/25 Northern Hemisphere production increase was less than expected. In the 25/26 season, the Northern Hemisphere is expected to have a restorative increase, and attention should be paid to Brazil's crushing situation [7]. Brazil's Situation - The crushing in the central - southern region of Brazil is lower than the same period last year. Factors such as weather - affected sugarcane yield, lower sugar content, and higher sugar - making ratio should be noted. The sugar - making ratio in the central - southern region remains high [9][10][12]. Other Countries' Situations - Thailand is expected to have a slight increase in production in the new season. In the 24/25 season, sugar production was 10.14 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 1.4 million tons), and exports from January to April 2025 were 2.3 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.58 million tons. The 25/26 season is expected to have a slight increase [18][21]. - In India, attention should be paid to the impact of ethanol volume on sugar supply and demand. The 25/26 season may see a restorative increase. In the 24/25 season, sugar production was about 26 million tons. As of May 15, 2025, the cumulative sugar production was 25.74 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 18.5% [22][23]. Domestic Situation - In the 25/26 season, domestic sugar production is expected to have a restorative increase. In the 24/25 season, the sales - to - production ratio was relatively high, and inventory was at a low level. In the 25/26 season, domestic sugar is in an increasing cycle, with an expected increase to about 11 million tons (subject to weather changes) [25]. - The rising import profit drives a strong import expectation, and import volume is expected to increase [28][31]. Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking - The report provides data on Brazil's central - southern region's cumulative sugarcane crushing volume, sugar production, and sugar - making ratio; the relationship between crude oil and raw sugar prices; Brazil's monthly sugar exports and inventory; India and Thailand's double - week sugar production; and China's monthly sugar production, sales, inventory, and sugar imports [35][42][46][47][52].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Views of the Report - Internationally, as Brazil is about to reach its supply peak, global inventories are expected to enter a stockpiling phase. The selling pressure after the start of Brazil's new sugar - crushing season has dragged down the raw sugar price center, and the expected increase in Brazil's production and the new sugar production in the Northern Hemisphere are suppressing raw sugar prices. Attention should be paid to Brazil's production progress and actual increase [4]. - Domestically, the fast production and sales speed is expected to support sugar prices. However, the large - scale entry of imported sugar into the domestic market may drag down sugar prices. Coupled with the recent weak trend of raw sugar, sugar prices will maintain a weak trend in the short term [4]. - Raw sugar has fallen recently due to the expected increase in global supply. The change in Brazil's sugar production remains an important indicator for the market. In China, the faster - than - expected production and sales rhythm supports spot prices. But considering the short - term weak operation of raw sugar, the profit from out - of - quota imports has risen again, and the supply pressure of refined sugar is about to materialize. Zhengzhou sugar is expected to passively follow the raw sugar price fluctuations in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Data Analysis - **Futures Disk**: For SR2511, the closing price is 5,775, down 32 with a decline of 0.56%, the trading volume is 190,361 with an increase of 0.80%, and the open interest is 309,811 with a decrease of 0.82%. For SR2507, the closing price is 5,790, down 20 with a decline of 0.34%, the trading volume is 218 with a decrease of 80.64%, and the open interest is 10,034 with a decrease of 1.11%. For SR2509, the closing price is 5,653, down 35 with a decline of 0.62%, the trading volume is 17,336 with a decrease of 5.00%, and the open interest is 53,130 with an increase of 1.89% [3]. - **Spot Price**: In different regions, the prices are as follows: 6150 in Liuzhou, 5895 - 6090 in Kunming, 6175 in Zhanjiang, 6160 in Nanning, 6420 in Bayuquan, 6420 in Rizhao, and 6420 in Xi'an [3]. - **Monthly Spread**: The SR07 - SR11 spread is 137 with a change of 15, the SR09 - SR11 spread is 122 with a change of 15, and the SR07 - SR09 spread is 241 with a change of 15 [3]. - **Import Profit**: For Brazilian imports, the ICE main contract price is 16.19, the premium is - 0.06, the freight is 36.25, the in - quota price is 4342, the out - of - quota price is 5548, the spread with Liuzhou is 602, the spread with Rizhao is 612.00, and the spread with the futures disk is 242. For Thai imports, the ICE main contract price is 16.19, the premium is 0.83, the freight is 18, the in - quota price is 4378, the out - of - quota price is 5595, the spread with Liuzhou is 555, the spread with Rizhao is 565.00, and the spread with the futures disk is 195 [3]. 3.2 Market Judgment - **Trading Strategy** - **Unilateral**: It is expected to maintain a sideways trend in the short term [6]. - **Arbitrage**: Take profit on the 9 - 1 spread [7]. - **Options**: Use out - of - the - money ratio spread options [10]. 3.3 Relevant Attached Figures - The attached figures include Guangxi's monthly inventory, Yunnan's monthly inventory, new industrial inventory, the cumulative production and sales rate of domestic sugar, Liuzhou's white sugar spot price, the spot price spread between Liuzhou and Kunming, the September basis of white sugar, and the 5 - 9 spread of Zhengzhou sugar [11][13][16][19]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - International factors such as the approaching monsoon season improving the outlook of major Asian sugar - producing countries with expected production recovery and increased Brazilian sugar supply are suppressing raw sugar prices. In China, the sugar import volume in May 2025 reached 350,000 tons, a significant increase of 220,000 tons from April and a surge of 1954.9% year - on - year. The opening of the import window has increased import pressure and suppressed sugar prices. However, as the summer consumption peak approaches, the food and beverage industry has stocking demand, and seasonal consumption of cold drinks may pick up, providing some support for prices, resulting in a slowdown in the decline and a short - term adjustment trend. Later, attention should be paid to sugar arrivals and summer consumption [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the sugar futures main contract was 5,710 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan; the main contract's open interest was 349,073 lots, down 4,726 lots; the number of sugar warehouse receipts was 24,762, down 2,572; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 63,693 lots; the total of valid warehouse receipt forecasts for sugar was 0; the estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota was 4,450 yuan/ton, up 57 yuan; and that of Thai sugar was 4,460 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan [2] 现货市场 - The estimated price of imported Brazilian sugar outside the quota (with a 50% tariff) was 5,653 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan; that of imported Thai sugar was 5,665 yuan/ton, up 59 yuan; the spot price of white sugar in Kunming was 5,860 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; in Nanning it was 6,040 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; and in Liuzhou it was 6,090 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop sown area was 1,480 thousand hectares, an increase of 60 thousand hectares; the sown area of sugar - cane in Guangxi was 835.09 thousand hectares, a decrease of 12.86 thousand hectares [2] Industry Situation - The cumulative national sugar production was 11.1621 million tons, an increase of 54,900 tons; the cumulative national sugar sales volume was 8.1138 million tons, an increase of 869,200 tons; the national industrial sugar inventory was 3.0483 million tons, a decrease of 814,300 tons; the national sugar sales ratio was 72.69%, an increase of 7.47 percentage points; the monthly sugar import volume was 350,000 tons, an increase of 220,000 tons; the total monthly sugar exports from Brazil were 2.2566 million tons, an increase of 704,000 tons; the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current Liuzhou sugar price within the quota was 1,470 yuan/ton, down 66 yuan; that of imported Thai sugar was 1,460 yuan/ton, down 54 yuan; outside the quota (with a 50% tariff), the price difference for Brazilian sugar was 267 yuan/ton, down 84 yuan; and for Thai sugar it was 255 yuan/ton, down 68 yuan [2] Downstream Situation - The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of refined sugar production was 16.7%, up 2.6 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of soft drink production was 3%, down 0.9 percentage points [2] Options Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar was 11.36%, up 2.54 percentage points; that of at - the - money put options was 11.36%, up 2.59 percentage points; the 20 - day historical volatility of sugar was 5.57%, unchanged; the 60 - day historical volatility was 8.52%, down 0.05 percentage points [2] Industry News - Brazil's foreign trade secretariat data showed that Brazil exported 2,103,033.83 tons of sugar in the first three weeks of June, with an average daily export volume of 150,216.7 tons, a 6% decrease compared to the average daily export volume of the whole of June last year [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View - Internationally, the improved outlook and expected recovery in production of major Asian sugar - producing countries, along with increased supply from Brazil, are suppressing sugar prices. Domestically, the opening of the import window and rising import pressure are weighing on sugar prices. However, approaching the summer consumption peak, the demand for inventory replenishment in the food and beverage industry and the seasonal recovery of cold - drink consumption provide some support for prices, slowing down the decline. Attention should be paid to the arrival of imported sugar and summer consumption boosts [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the sugar futures main contract is 5658 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan; the main contract position is 384,680 lots, up 12,863 lots. The number of sugar warehouse receipts is 28,279, down 120; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 62,173 lots, down 6,170 lots. The effective warehouse receipt forecast is 0 [2] Spot Market - The estimated import - processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4446 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; that of Thai sugar is 4468 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan. The estimated price of imported Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5647 yuan/ton, down 39 yuan; that of Thai sugar is 5676 yuan/ton, down 39 yuan. The spot prices of white sugar in Kunming, Nanning, and Liuzhou are 5855 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan), 6020 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan), and 6100 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan) respectively [2] Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop planting area is 1480 thousand hectares, up 60 thousand hectares. The planting area of sugar - cane in Guangxi is 835.09 thousand hectares, down 12.86 thousand hectares [2] Industry Situation - The national cumulative sugar production is 11.1072 million tons, up 360,100 tons; the cumulative sugar sales volume is 7.2446 million tons, up 1.2488 million tons. The national industrial sugar inventory is 3.8626 million tons, down 889,500 tons; the national sugar sales rate is 65.22%, up 9.43 percentage points. The monthly import volume of sugar is 130,000 tons, up 60,000 tons. The total sugar exports from Brazil are 2.2566 million tons, up 704,000 tons. The price differences between imported Brazilian/Thai sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar (within quota) are 1452 yuan/ton and 1430 yuan/ton respectively, up 45 yuan/ton; outside the quota (50% tariff), they are 251 yuan/ton and 222 yuan/ton respectively, up 54 yuan/ton [2] Downstream Situation - The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of refined sugar production is 16.7%, up 2.6 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of soft - drink production is 3.9%, up 0.9 percentage points [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call/put options for sugar is 11.36%, up 2.54 and 2.59 percentage points respectively. The 20 - day and 60 - day historical volatilities of sugar are 5.57% (unchanged) and 8.52%, down 0.05 percentage points respectively [2] Industry News - According to Williams, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports decreased from 80 to 76, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped decreased from 2.9104 million tons to 2.8539 million tons [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Internationally, as Brazil is about to reach its supply peak, global sugar inventories are expected to enter an accumulation phase. In the short - term, the market is affected by production data, and in the long - term, Brazil's production progress and actual increase need attention [4]. - Domestically, the fast sales rate may support sugar prices, but the influx of imported sugar and the weakening of raw sugar may drag down sugar prices. Short - term sugar prices are expected to remain weak [4]. - Raw sugar has declined due to expected global supply increases. In China, summer stocking demand is delayed, and the supply pressure of processed sugar is about to materialize. Zhengzhou sugar is expected to follow raw sugar prices in the short - term [5]. - For trading strategies, Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be weak in the short - term, and it's recommended to wait and see for arbitrage, while considering out - of - the - money ratio spread options or selling wide - straddle options for options trading [6][7][10]. 3. Summary by Sections 3.1 Data Analysis - **Futures Market**: SR2511 closed at 5,679 with a decrease of 12 (-0.21%), trading volume of 190,971 (-9.53%), and open interest of 371,817 (0.68%); SR2507 closed at 5,732 with a decrease of 8 (-0.14%), trading volume of 2,847 (-12.35%), and open interest of 14,281 (-6.06%); SR2509 closed at 5,588 with a decrease of 14 (-0.25%), trading volume of 25,009 (3.21%), and open interest of 51,362 (-0.07%) [3]. - **Spot Market**: In regions like Liuzhou, Kunming, and Zhanjiang, spot prices ranged from 5,865 - 6,410 yuan/ton. The price in Liuzhou was 6,120 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [3]. - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: SR07 - SR11 spread was 144 with an increase of 6; SR09 - SR11 spread was 91 with an increase of 1; SR07 - SR09 spread was 180 with an increase of 5 [3]. - **Import Profits**: For Brazilian imports, the in - quota price was 4,373 yuan/ton, and the out - of - quota price was 5,589 yuan/ton. For Thai imports, the in - quota price was 4,425 yuan/ton, and the out - quota price was 5,657 yuan/ton [3]. 3.2 Market Judgment - **International**: With Brazil's approaching supply peak, global sugar inventories are expected to increase. Short - term prices are affected by production data, and long - term trends depend on Brazil's production [4]. - **Domestic**: Fast sales may support prices, but imported sugar and weak raw sugar may lead to price drops. Short - term sugar prices are expected to be weak [4]. 3.3 Logic Analysis - Raw sugar prices have declined due to expected supply increases, and China's summer stocking delay and raw sugar weakness have increased out - of - quota import profits. Zhengzhou sugar is expected to follow raw sugar prices [5]. 3.4 Trading Strategies - **Single - Side Trading**: Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be weak in the short - term, following raw sugar fluctuations [6]. - **Arbitrage**: It's recommended to wait and see [7]. - **Options Trading**: Consider out - of - the - money ratio spread options or selling wide - straddle options [10]. 3.5 Related Attachments - Figures include Guangxi monthly inventory, Yunnan monthly inventory, new industrial inventory, domestic sugar cumulative sales rate, Liuzhou sugar spot price, Liuzhou - Kunming sugar spot price difference, sugar September basis, and Zhengzhou sugar 5 - 9 spread [11][13][16]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report 2. Core View - Internationally, the improved outlook of major Asian sugar - producing countries with expected restorative production increases and increased supply from Brazil are suppressing sugar prices. Domestically, the opening of the import window and rising import pressure are weighing on sugar prices. However, approaching the summer consumption peak, the food and beverage industry's inventory demand and the recovery of seasonal consumption such as cold drinks are providing some support, slowing down the price decline. Attention should be paid to arrivals at ports and summer consumption boosts [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the sugar futures main contract is 5679 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan; the main contract position is 371,817 lots, up 2,505 lots. The sugar warehouse receipt quantity is 28,399 sheets, down 187 sheets; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 56,003 lots, down 2,195 lots. The total effective warehouse receipt forecast is 0 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The estimated import - processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4,446 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; that of Thai sugar is 4,468 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan. The estimated import price of Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5,647 yuan/ton, and that of Thai sugar is 5,676 yuan/ton. The spot price of white sugar in Kunming is 5,865 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Nanning it is 6,040 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; in Liuzhou it is 6,120 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop sown area is 1,480 thousand hectares, up 60 thousand hectares. The sown area of sugar - cane in Guangxi is 835.09 thousand hectares, down 12.86 thousand hectares [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The national cumulative sugar production is 1,110.72 million tons, up 36.01 million tons; the cumulative sugar sales volume is 724.46 million tons, up 124.88 million tons. The national industrial sugar inventory is 386.26 million tons, down 88.95 million tons; the national sugar sales rate is 65.22%, up 9.43 percentage points. The monthly sugar import volume is 130,000 tons, up 60,000 tons. Brazil's monthly sugar export volume is 2.2566 billion tons, up 704,000 tons. The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1,452 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan; that of Thai sugar is 1,430 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan. Outside the quota (50% tariff), the price difference for Brazilian sugar is 251 yuan/ton, up 54 yuan; for Thai sugar it is 222 yuan/ton, up 54 yuan [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of refined sugar production is 16.7%, up 2.6 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of soft drink production is 3.9%, up 0.9 percentage points [2] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 8.82%, down 0.05 percentage points; that of at - the - money put options is 8.77%, down 0.11 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility is 5.57%, up 0.39 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility is 8.58%, down 0.37 percentage points [2] 3.7 Industry News - China imported 350,000 tons of sugar in May, a year - on - year increase of 330,000 tons. From January to May, the cumulative sugar import volume was 630,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 50.1% [2]

数据来源第三方(同花顺、wind)，观点仅供参考，市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 研究员: 张昕 期货从业资格号F03109641 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0018457 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 白糖产业日报 2025-06-16 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货主力合约收盘价:白糖(日,元/吨) | 5667 | 3 主力合约持仓量:白糖(日,手) | 370572 | 2346 | | 期货市场 | 仓单数量:白糖(日,张) | 28586 | -150 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:白糖( ...

数据来源第三方(同花顺、wind)，观点仅供参考，市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 研究员: 张昕 期货从业资格号F03109641 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0018457 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 白糖产业日报 2025-06-12 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:白糖(日,元/吨) | 5647 | -21 主力合约持仓量:白糖(日,手) | 367580 | 9449 | | | 仓单数量:白糖(日,张) | 29116 | -100 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:白 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global sugar market's expected high yield in the new season is pressuring sugar prices. With Brazil approaching its supply peak, the global sugar inventory is expected to enter an accumulation phase, and raw sugar will generally fluctuate. In the short term, the market will be influenced by phased production data. Attention should be paid to Brazil's production progress and actual increase in production [3]. - In the domestic market, the sales and production speed is relatively fast, and inventory reduction is advanced. Considering the expected arrival of a large amount of imported sugar, sugar prices are expected to be suppressed. Coupled with the weakening of raw sugar prices and the decline in imported sugar prices, domestic sugar prices are expected to remain weak in the short term [3]. - Recently, raw sugar has broken through the downward trend due to the expected high yield in Brazil. In the future, attention should be paid to the impact of weather changes on the sugarcane crushing progress and the marginal change of raw sugar. In China, the summer stocking demand is delayed, and the short - term trend of raw sugar is weak. The profit of out - of - quota imports has increased again, and the supply pressure of processed sugar is about to materialize. Zhengzhou sugar is expected to remain weak [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies Comprehensive Analysis - Internationally, with Brazil's approaching supply peak, the global sugar inventory is expected to enter an accumulation phase, and raw sugar will generally fluctuate. In the short term, the market will be influenced by phased production data, and attention should be paid to Brazil's production progress and actual increase in production. Domestically, the sales and production speed is relatively fast, and inventory reduction is advanced. Considering the expected arrival of a large amount of imported sugar, sugar prices are expected to be suppressed. Coupled with the weakening of raw sugar prices and the decline in imported sugar prices, domestic sugar prices are expected to remain weak in the short term [3]. Logical Analysis - Raw sugar has recently broken through the downward trend due to the expected high yield in Brazil. In the future, attention should be paid to the impact of weather changes on the sugarcane crushing progress and the marginal change of raw sugar. In China, the summer stocking demand is delayed, and the short - term trend of raw sugar is weak. The profit of out - of - quota imports has increased again, and the supply pressure of processed sugar is about to materialize, so Zhengzhou sugar is expected to remain weak [4]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Be bearish. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Out - of - the - money ratio spread options [5]. Core Logic Analysis - The global sugar market's expected high yield in the new season is pressuring sugar prices. The ISO has raised its forecast of the global sugar shortage in the 2024/25 season to 5.47 million tons, the highest level of supply - demand shortage in 9 years. However, it is expected that the global sugar supply will have a surplus of 1.53 million tons in the 2025/26 season [7][9]. - In Brazil, as of the second half of April in the 2025/26 season, sugar production decreased slightly year - on - year. In May, sugar exports decreased by 19.72% year - on - year. As of the week of June 4, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports was 90, the same as the previous week. The quantity of sugar waiting to be loaded was 3.247 million tons, a decrease of 4.12% from the previous week [10][19][21]. - The NFCSF in India expects the ending inventory of sugar in the 2024/25 season to be about 4.865 million metric tons, which can meet domestic consumption demand from October to November 2025. It is also expected that the sugar production will strongly recover in the 2025/26 season, reaching about 35 million metric tons [22]. - As of the end of May 2025, the 2024/25 sugar - making season has ended. The national sugar production was 11.1621 million tons, an increase of 12.03% year - on - year. The cumulative sugar sales were 8.1138 million tons, an increase of 23.07% year - on - year, and the cumulative sugar sales rate was 72.69%, 6.52 percentage points faster than the same period last year. The average sales price of refined white sugar in May 2025 was 6,026 yuan/ton, a decrease of 392 yuan/ton year - on - year [25]. Weekly Data Tracking - In April 2025, China imported 130,000 tons of sugar, an increase of 75,700 tons year - on - year. From January to April 2025, China imported 278,400 tons of sugar, a decrease of 77.86% year - on - year. As of April in the 2024/25 season, China's cumulative sugar imports were 1.7401 million tons, a decrease of 44.18% year - on - year [27]. - As of April in the 2024/25 season, the cumulative imports of three types of goods under item 170290 were 806,700 tons, a decrease of 13.44% year - on - year [28].

白糖产业日报 2025-06-10 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:白糖(日,元/吨) | 5717 | -17 主力合约持仓量:白糖(日,手) | 342526 | 1295 | | | 仓单数量:白糖(日,张) | 29443 | 0 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:白糖(日,手) | -27019 | -5633 | | | 有效仓单预报:白糖:小计(日,张) 进口加工估算价(配额内):巴西糖(日,元/ | 0 | 0 | | | | 现货市场 | | 4543 | -12 进口加工估算价(配额内):泰国糖(日,元/ | 4552 | -45 -59 | | 吨) | 进口巴糖估算价(配额外,50%关税)(日,元 | | 吨) | | | | | | 5774 | -15 进口泰糖估算价(配额外,50%关税)(日,元 | 5785 | | | /吨) | 现货价:白砂糖:昆明(日,元/吨) | 5900 | 0 现货价:白砂糖:南宁(日,元/吨) ...