炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 2025年1月1日起，我国渐进式延迟法定退休年龄政策正式实施，将用15年时间，逐步将男职工的法定退 休年龄从60岁延迟至63岁，女职工的法定退休年龄从50岁、55岁分别延迟至55岁、58岁。 （政策来源：2024/9/13-全国人民代表大会常务委员会关于实施渐进式延迟法定退休年龄的决定） 图：红利低波（全）与中证全指全收益指数2014-2024年度涨跌幅&2025年来区间涨跌幅 这事对90后影响挺大。现在90后慢慢成了职场里的主力，按这个政策算，不少人离退休可能还要再干30 多年，因此养老这件事更要提前准备。 之前我们在"养老投资'红'宝书"的前三期里，专门给大家讲过一 个比较适合养老投资的方法，叫 "红利低波策略"。 简单理解就是选那些分红相对稳定、价格波动较小的投资方向，风险相对较低，适合长期拿着养老用。 不过有个情况大家可能会担心：就拿 "红利低波（全）" 这个指数来说，从2019年到 2025年11月14日， 它已经连续涨了6年多，现在的点位也是2013年12月19日发布以来的相对高位。不少人就会犯嘀咕：这 策略后面还能一直有效 ...

Core Viewpoint - Dividend assets are not only defensive but also exhibit strong offensive capabilities in the current slow bull market, as evidenced by significant index performance since September 24, 2024 [1][3]. Group 1: Performance of Dividend Assets - From September 24, 2024, to November 30, 2025, the Hang Seng and Shanghai-Hong Kong Dividend 50 Index increased by 35.67%, while the CSI 800 Dividend Low Volatility Index rose by 18.84% [1][3]. - Since the end of 2021, the main dividend indices have shown a smaller decline compared to the overall market during periods of significant market adjustments [2]. Group 2: Year-End Market Trends - Historical data indicates that the year-end market, particularly December, is favorable for dividend assets, with higher win rates compared to growth-oriented styles [4]. - Key sectors with high win rates in December include home appliances (approximately 80%), banks (about 65%), and oil and petrochemicals (around 60%) [4]. Group 3: Low Volatility Dividend Strategy - The combination of dividend and low volatility strategies enhances asset stability and investment experience, optimizing risk-return profiles [6]. - The CSI 800 Dividend Low Volatility Index employs a four-step screening process to ensure the selection of stable, high-dividend companies while minimizing exposure to high volatility stocks [6][7]. Group 4: Characteristics of CSI 800 Dividend Low Volatility Index - The CSI 800 Dividend Low Volatility Index has shown a 223% increase since its base date (December 31, 2013), outperforming the CSI 800 Index by 130% [8]. - The average dividend yield of the CSI 800 Dividend Low Volatility Index is 4.48%, with a three-year average yield of 5.39%, providing substantial cash flow in a low-interest-rate environment [8]. - The index has a nearly 91% annual win rate over the past eleven years, with ten years showing positive returns [8]. Group 5: Industry Distribution - The CSI 800 Dividend Low Volatility Index is primarily focused on bond-like dividends, with banks making up about 26.5% of the index, followed by utilities and transportation [9]. - This balanced industry distribution allows the index to maintain defensive characteristics while capturing growth opportunities from cyclical and consumer sectors [9]. Group 6: Investment Products - Xinyuan Fund has launched the Xinyuan CSI 800 Dividend Low Volatility ETF and its associated funds, providing convenient investment options that track the index closely [10]. - These products are suitable for various investor preferences, offering a combination of high dividend yields and low volatility characteristics to enhance investment safety [10].

Trading Insights - Foreign institutions have conducted over 9,000 research visits to A-share listed companies this year, with major players like Point72 and Goldman Sachs frequently appearing on the list, indicating a focus on technological innovation and high-end manufacturing [1] - As of the market close on December 3, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.51% to 3,878 points, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped by 0.78% to 12,955.25 points, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 1.12% to 3,036.79 points, with a total market turnover of 1.67 trillion yuan and over 3,800 stocks declining [1] Fund News - On December 3, nine new funds were launched, primarily mixed and equity funds, with the Dachen Youxiang 6-month holding period mixed fund A targeting a fundraising amount of 8 billion yuan; 24 funds announced dividends, with the highest being 0.4500 yuan per 10 shares for the Chuangjin Hexin Zunrui bond fund [2][4] - The Huaxia Fund disclosed a draft for the expansion of the China Resources rental housing REIT, adding new members to the existing expansion team; currently, there are 78 public REITs listed, with 9 initiating expansions, indicating a dual-track pattern of "initial issuance + expansion" [2] - The latest scale of bond funds reached 7.1 trillion yuan, second only to money market funds, with a cumulative dividend amount exceeding 155.7 billion yuan this year, solidifying their position as the top dividend-paying funds [2] ETF Analysis - On December 3, the three major stock indices in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets collectively retreated, while AI mobile concept stocks saw significant gains; the Jiaoyun ETF rose by 0.97%, with companies like Tielong Logistics and Xiamen Xiangyu increasing by over 3% [3] - The Reducing Volatility Dividend ETF increased by 0.21%, with Nanshan Aluminum rising by 4%; the current market environment favors defensive strategies, with the dividend low volatility strategy showing significant advantages [3] Performance of Funds - The best-performing fund on December 3 was the Yongying Resource Selection Mixed A, with a daily growth rate of 2.6304%, followed closely by Yongying Resource Selection Mixed C at 2.6261% and Baoying Development New Momentum Stock C at 2.5452% [7] - In the stock fund category, Baoying Development New Momentum Stock C led with a daily growth rate of 2.5452%, while the top bond fund was Baoying Rongyuan Convertible Bond C at 0.5948% [8]

Core Viewpoint - The current market is in a phase characterized by "slowing slope and mean reversion," making low-volatility dividend funds a noteworthy foundational choice for investors [1][3]. Market Analysis - Near the 4000-point mark, the market is expected to exhibit characteristics of slowing slope and high-level fluctuations rather than rapid increases [3]. - The total market capitalization at 4000 points exceeds 100 trillion yuan, doubling from approximately 50-60 trillion yuan a decade ago, indicating a need for greater trading volume to support price increases [3]. - The investor structure has fundamentally changed, with institutional holdings now accounting for about 50% of the A-share market, compared to a 90% retail penetration a decade ago [3]. Investment Strategy - The core of dividend investment lies in selecting stocks with high dividend yields, typically above 4% [7]. - The selection logic for low-volatility indices differs from regular dividend indices, employing a dual screening process to identify stocks with both high dividends and low volatility [12]. - The principle of "buying low is better than chasing high" is crucial for enhancing the investment experience in dividend indices, advising against purchases when deviation rates are too high [15]. Quantitative Evidence - Historical data shows that in the fourth quarter, dividend low-volatility styles tend to outperform growth styles, with a less than 25% chance of the top-performing style in Q3 continuing to lead in Q4 [4]. - The price ratio between technology and dividend indices reached a ten-year extreme in October, indicating a potential mean reversion as funds shift towards dividend stocks [4]. - A quantitative analysis from 2010 to present indicates that sectors with over 20% holdings by public funds are likely to underperform in the following six months, suggesting a potential shift of funds towards low-volatility dividend strategies [5]. Fund Characteristics - Dividend funds can be categorized into three types: bond-like dividends, cyclical dividends, and consumer dividends, with specific strategies for rotation among these categories [9]. - The average dividend yield of the 中证800红利低波动指数 is 4.48%, with a three-year average yield of 5.39%, significantly higher than the 中证800 index [18]. Future Outlook - Short-term (now to February 2026): The mean reversion logic suggests that low-volatility dividend strategies are worth attention due to high valuations in the technology sector [22]. - Mid-term: New regulations on public fund performance benchmarks may lead to increased allocations towards bond-like dividend sectors [23]. - Long-term: Policies requiring state-owned insurance companies to allocate a portion of new premiums to A-shares will likely favor low-volatility dividend strategies, providing a supportive funding environment [23].

Group 1 - The report defines "Quantitative Fixed Income+" as a type of fund that focuses on fixed income assets as the core, using quantitative models to enhance asset allocation in equities and convertible bonds while controlling volatility and maximum drawdown to pursue "fixed income + excess returns" [7][8] - Key features of Quantitative Fixed Income+ include a stable core of pure bond assets, quantitative-driven strategies for stock selection, and various operational methods such as collaboration between fixed income and quantitative fund managers [8][10] Group 2 - Common strategies in Quantitative Fixed Income+ include focusing on single clear return-driving factors, using broad-based indices as benchmarks, and diversifying across multiple independent risk factors to achieve more stable excess returns [10][12] - The report highlights the performance of the "Dividend Low Volatility" strategy, which aims to invest in companies with stable cash flows and low stock price volatility to achieve favorable risk-adjusted returns over the long term [13][22] Group 3 - The report provides a comparative analysis of the performance of various indices, showing that the "Dividend Low Volatility Index" outperformed both the "CSI 300" and "CSI Dividend" indices over the past 20 years [15][22] - The report details the characteristics of representative funds employing the Dividend Low Volatility strategy, including their investment types, benchmarks, and total assets under management [25][26] Group 4 - The report discusses the asset allocation strategies of the funds, emphasizing the importance of adjusting positions based on market trends and maintaining a balance between equities and bonds to achieve stable long-term growth [27][49] - It also highlights the management of duration in bond investments, indicating that the funds adjust duration based on market conditions to optimize returns [49][104] Group 5 - The report outlines the performance of funds using the Index Enhancement strategy, which aims to increase equity returns through quantitative models that optimize asset allocation based on various factors [73][85] - It emphasizes the importance of flexible asset allocation and proactive position adjustments in response to market conditions to enhance overall fund performance [86][127] Group 6 - The report describes the Multi-Factor strategy as a core approach for equity asset selection, utilizing a multi-dimensional factor model to identify high-quality stocks and optimize overall portfolio performance [129][183] - It highlights the importance of dynamic adjustment of industry weightings based on factor performance, allowing for a diversified approach to asset allocation [167][182]

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 转眼间，我国的个人养老金制度已经走过三个年头。从2022年11月25日试点启动，到2024年12月15日的 全面实施与纳入指数产品，个人养老金已成为完善我国多层次养老保险体系的关键一环。 （政策来源：人力资源社会保障部官网-《个人养老金实施办法》-2022/10/26、《关于全面实施个人养 老金制度的通知》-2025/12/12） 而随着个人养老金可投资产品种类持续丰富，不少追求"慢才是快"宝藏品类脱颖而出，例如收获高人气 的红利低波策略产品——华泰柏瑞中证红利低波ETF联接Y（022951）。截至2025年三季度末，华泰柏 瑞中证红利低波ETF联接Y（022951）成为市场首个规模超2亿元的指数基金Y份额产品。 红利低波Y份额在个人养老金市场的脱颖而出，并非因其在某一时段创造了惊人的回报，而是因其风险 收益特征与养老资金的投资目标高度契合。 （数据来源：定期报告，规模2.45亿元） 伴随"指数Y"飞入百姓家 2022年11月25日，个人养老金制度率先在36城试点启动，参与者在开立的个人养老金账户后，每年最多 可存缴1.2万元，用于自主 ...

Core Viewpoint - The introduction of personal pension accounts and the tax incentives associated with them have led to increased interest in index funds designed for personal pension investments, particularly those employing a low-volatility dividend strategy, which is becoming increasingly popular among investors [1] Group 1: Understanding Pension Investment - Pension investment fundamentally aims to ensure a comfortable retirement, which includes having sufficient funds to cover unexpected situations and improve quality of life [2] - For many young and middle-aged individuals, pension investment is a long-term accumulation process, emphasizing risk control and stable asset growth rather than short-term high returns [3] Group 2: Low-Volatility Dividend Strategy - The low-volatility dividend strategy combines high dividend yield stocks with low volatility factors, aiming to select fundamentally strong stocks that can perform well in both economic recovery and downturns [4] - This strategy is particularly suited for pension investments as it emphasizes risk control and long-term value growth, making it a good match for the objectives of pension funds [5] Group 3: Benefits of Low-Volatility Dividend Strategy - The inclusion of low-volatility factors helps identify high-quality value stocks, enhancing defensive attributes during market fluctuations, which aligns well with the stability sought in pension investments [5] - The high dividend yield of low-volatility assets can significantly contribute to long-term pension investment returns, especially in a low-interest-rate environment where traditional fixed-income investments yield less [6] - Historical performance shows that the low-volatility dividend strategy has outperformed broader market indices during downturns, demonstrating its resilience and long-term investment value [7][9]

Core Viewpoint - The introduction of personal pension accounts and the tax incentives associated with them have made dividend low-volatility strategies increasingly attractive for long-term retirement planning, particularly in the context of a low-interest-rate environment [1][5]. Group 1: Understanding Pension Investment - Pension investment fundamentally aims to ensure a comfortable retirement, which includes financial security alongside health and family well-being [1]. - For many young individuals, pension investment is a long-term accumulation process, emphasizing risk control and stable asset growth rather than short-term high returns [2]. Group 2: Dividend Low-Volatility Strategy - The dividend low-volatility strategy combines high dividend yield stocks with low volatility factors, aiming to select fundamentally strong stocks that can perform well in various economic conditions [3]. - This strategy is designed to provide a defensive approach during market downturns, thereby reducing volatility and drawdown risks [3]. Group 3: Alignment with Pension Investment - The inclusion of low-volatility factors helps identify high-quality value stocks, making it suitable for pension investments that prioritize long-term stability [4]. - Dividend low-volatility assets can accumulate wealth over time, contributing significantly to overall returns in a pension portfolio [5]. - In a persistently low-interest-rate environment, dividend low-volatility indices offer attractive yields compared to traditional fixed-income investments, making them appealing for pension funds [5]. Group 4: Performance and Resilience - The dividend low-volatility strategy has demonstrated strong performance across different market conditions, particularly during market downturns, outperforming broader indices [6][8]. - Since its inception, the strategy has achieved significant cumulative and annualized returns, indicating its effectiveness as a long-term investment approach [7].

Core Insights - The article discusses the advantages of a dividend low-volatility strategy compared to traditional stock picking, highlighting its ability to reduce drawdowns and facilitate buying low and selling high [1][11] - It emphasizes the importance of asset allocation, suggesting a balanced approach between dividend low-volatility stocks and bonds to mitigate risks during market downturns [3][11] Summary by Sections Investment Strategy - A 55:45 allocation between dividend low-volatility stocks and bonds can yield an annualized return of approximately 7%, although a 4% loss may still occur in extreme market conditions like those in 2018 [1] - The strategy of using Bollinger Bands for managing positions is suggested, where selling occurs at the upper band and buying at the lower band, which can enhance returns compared to a static holding approach [1][5] Risk Management - The article notes that a 16% drop in the dividend low-volatility index in 2018 should be viewed as a historical buying opportunity, advocating for a reallocation strategy to enhance returns during recovery phases [3] - It discusses the potential of using put options for additional protection against extreme market downturns, although this may not be deemed necessary for strategies with low maximum drawdowns [11] Portfolio Construction - Recommendations include building a personalized portfolio based on the top holdings of the dividend low-volatility index, allowing for greater flexibility and responsiveness to market conditions [4][8] - The concept of passive rebalancing is introduced, where adjustments are made based on changes in asset ratios, promoting a disciplined approach to high selling and low buying [5][9]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the performance and investment appeal of the Dividend Low Volatility ETF (512890), which has shown significant capital inflows and strong market recognition. Group 1: ETF Performance - The Dividend Low Volatility ETF (512890) rose by 1.15% to 1.233 CNY, with a trading volume of 4.18 billion CNY, leading its category in terms of transaction scale [1][3] - Over the past five trading days, the ETF has seen a net inflow of 180 million CNY, and over the last 20 trading days, the net inflow reached 1.15 billion CNY, indicating strong investor interest [2][3] - As of November 19, 2025, the ETF's total circulation scale was 21.431 billion CNY, ranking first among similar products, reflecting market confidence in the dividend low volatility strategy [2][3] Group 2: Investment Strategy and Holdings - The ETF's top holdings include major banks and transportation sectors, such as China Grain Reserves Corporation, Nanjing Bank, and Agricultural Bank of China, showcasing a focus on stable dividend-paying stocks [2][6] - The ETF has achieved a cumulative return of 143.68% since its inception in December 2018, outperforming its benchmark, making it a viable option for investors seeking stable returns amid market volatility [6] Group 3: Market Outlook - Analysts from Zheshang Securities express optimism about the value of dividend assets, predicting a balanced market style in 2026, with cyclical and technology growth sectors performing well [5] - The banking sector is highlighted as having significant investment potential due to its low historical valuations and strong dividend policies, making it an attractive choice for long-term investors [5]