Core Viewpoint - The soda ash futures market is experiencing a downward trend, with a significant decrease in prices and a mixed outlook on supply and demand dynamics [1][2][3] Market Performance - As of November 21, 2025, the main soda ash futures contract closed at 1170 CNY/ton, with a weekly decline of 4.80% [1] - The weekly trading range saw prices open at 1224 CNY/ton, reaching a high of 1236 CNY/ton and a low of 1156 CNY/ton [1] Inventory and Supply - Domestic soda ash manufacturers reported a total inventory of 1.6444 million tons as of November 20, 2025, a decrease of 62,900 tons (3.68%) from the previous week [2] - Light soda ash inventory stood at 757,100 tons, down by 43,100 tons, while heavy soda ash inventory decreased by 19,800 tons to 887,300 tons [2] - Year-on-year, total inventory has slightly decreased by 370 tons (0.23%) compared to 1.6481 million tons last year [2] Market Sentiment and Price Trends - The top 20 futures companies held a total of 973,600 long positions and 1,229,400 short positions, resulting in a long-to-short ratio of 0.79 and a net position of -255,800 contracts, indicating a bearish sentiment [2] - In the South China region, the average price for light soda ash was 1350 CNY/ton and for heavy soda ash was 1400 CNY/ton, with similar prices reported in Northeast China [2] Institutional Insights - Zhonghui Futures noted a dual reduction in supply and demand, with high factory inventories declining and production slightly decreasing due to maintenance [3] - The demand for soda ash is being negatively impacted by falling glass prices, leading to a weak market sentiment [3] - Wukuang Futures highlighted that the soda ash market lacks clear directional guidance, with expectations of continued low-price fluctuations [3]

Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 本周玻璃观点：短线止跌 中期震荡市 | 供应 | 周内浮法玻璃产线有所变化，东北一条产线放水，无点火产线，周产量环比下降。截至20251120， 国内玻璃生产线在剔除僵尸产线后共计 | | --- | --- | | | 296条(20万吨/日），其中在产221条，冷修停产75条，截至2025年11月20日，全国浮法玻璃日产量为15.81万吨，比13日-0.66%。 | | | 截至20251117，全国深加工样本企业订单天数均值9.9天，环比-8.9%，同比-24.2%。进入11月，各大区深加工样本持有订单均值环比月初均有 | | 需求 | 下滑，订单疲软态势也导致部分加工厂出现阶段性放假现象，目前调研的深加工所持订单天数较少在2-5天居多，另有排期集中在7-15天，亦 | | | 有少数工程订单排期较长，临近年末，欠款类订单深加工签单依旧保持谨慎心态。 | | 库存 | 截止到20251120，全国浮法玻璃样本企业总库存6330.3万重箱，环比+5.6万重箱，环比+0.09%，同 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱早报 2025-11-20 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 纯碱： 1、基本面：碱厂产量高位，远兴二期年前预期投产，整体供给预期充裕；下游浮法玻璃供给扰动 预期，光伏日熔量延续下滑趋势，纯碱厂库处于历史同期高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1140元/吨，SA2601收盘价为1182元/吨，基差为-42元，期货升 水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存170.73万吨，较前一周减少0.40%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：纯碱基本面不改疲弱，短期预计震荡运行为主。SA2601：1130-1180区间操作 影响因素总结 利多： 1、下游玻璃供给低位企稳 ...

纯碱玻璃周报 研究员：李轩怡 期货从业证号：F03108920 投资咨询资格证号：Z0018403 目录 第一章 核心逻辑分析 2 第二章 周度数据追踪 10 单位：万吨 纯碱产量 纯碱联碱法开工率 单位：% 纯碱氨碱法开工率 单位：% 50.00% 55.00% 60.00% 65.00% 70.00% 75.00% 80.00% 85.00% 90.00% 95.00% 100.00% 2025 2024 2023 2022 50.00% 55.00% 60.00% 65.00% 70.00% 75.00% 80.00% 85.00% 90.00% 95.00% 100.00% 2025 2024 2023 2022 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 第53 周 第50 周 第47 周 第44 周 第41 周 第38 周 第35 周 第32 周 第29 周 第26 周 第23 周 第20 周 第17 周 第14 周 第11 周 第8周 第5周 第2周 2025年度 2024年度 2023年度 2022年度 2021年度 2020年度 GALAXY FUTURES 2 本周纯碱产量73. ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for the chemical industry showed a mostly positive trend, with soda ash futures experiencing a slight increase in price, indicating a stable yet cautious market outlook for the sector [1] Supply - Last week, some production lines reduced output, with Jiangsu Debang and Ningxia Risheng undergoing maintenance, and a planned maintenance for Zhongyan Kunshan in December. Overall, soda ash production decreased by 10,800 tons week-on-week [1] Demand - Downstream demand for soda ash remains weak, primarily driven by essential purchasing needs, with moderate low-price stock replenishment. The production capacity for float glass and photovoltaic glass slightly declined, indicating limited fluctuations in overall essential consumption [1] Inventory - As of November 10, 2025, total inventory of soda ash in domestic manufacturers was 1.7062 million tons, a decrease of 800 tons from the previous week, representing a decline of 0.47%. Light soda ash inventory was 797,700 tons, down by 1,690 tons, while heavy soda ash inventory was 908,500 tons, up by 890 tons [1] Market Outlook - The market is expected to see narrow upward movement in soda ash prices, with light soda ash prices slightly increasing. Supply is expected to remain high, and inventory levels are likely to continue at elevated levels. The production capacity for photovoltaic glass is stable, while four production lines for float glass have recently been shut down, leading to reduced demand for heavy soda ash. Attention is drawn to the potential continuation of price increases for light soda ash and the willingness of downstream sectors to replenish stocks, with expectations that soda ash prices are unlikely to drop in the short term [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for the glass industry is to expect a weak and volatile trend [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - The glass futures market showed a pattern of rising first and then falling last week, with the weekly line closing as a doji with an upper shadow. The short - term technical signals were favorable during the week but were suppressed by the fundamental reality. With the implementation of the production line shutdown plan, the futures price fluctuated within a narrow range. In the future, there is no strong positive expectation in the short and medium - term. The replenishment sentiment of the mid - and downstream is low at the end of the year, and the demand may continue to weaken. Considering the relatively high inventory and the delivery pressure in the near - month contracts, it is recommended to hold out - of - the - money call options on the glass 01 contract until expiration or look for short - selling opportunities when the 01 contract briefly rallies, with a reference range of 1140 - 1150 [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Investment Strategy - The main logic is that the glass futures price was affected by the production line shutdown and fundamental suppression last week. In the future, due to weak demand and high inventory, the market is expected to be weak and volatile. The recommended operations are to hold out - of - the - money call options on the glass 01 contract until expiration or short - sell on rallies [3]. 3.2 Market Review - Price - **Spot price**: As of November 7, the market price of 5mm float glass was 1300 yuan/ton (unchanged) in North China, 1140 yuan/ton (+20) in Central China, and 1240 yuan/ton (-10) in East China. - **Futures price**: Last Friday, the glass 01 contract closed at 1091 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan for the week [11]. 3.3 Market Review - Spread - **Soda - glass spread**: As of November 7, the soda futures price was 1210 yuan, the glass futures price was 1091 yuan, and the spread between them was 119 yuan/ton (-23). - **Basis**: Last Friday, the basis of the glass 01 contract was 49 yuan/ton (+62). - **Contract spread**: Last Friday, the 01 - 05 spread was - 134 yuan/ton (+15) [12][17]. 3.4 Profit - **Natural gas process**: The cost was 1574 yuan/ton (-2), and the gross profit was - 334 yuan/ton (-8). - **Coal - gas process**: The cost was 1211 yuan/ton (+24), and the gross profit was - 81 yuan/ton (-24). - **Petroleum coke process**: The cost was 1092 yuan/ton (+2), and the gross profit was 48 yuan/ton (+18). - **Fuel prices**: On November 7, the industrial natural gas price in Hebei was 3.8 yuan/m³, the CIF price of US 3% sulfur shot coke was 170 US dollars/ton, and the price of Yulin thermal coal was 672 yuan/ton [20]. 3.5 Supply - Last Friday, the daily melting volume of glass was 157,505 tons/day (-2650), with 222 production lines in operation. There were multiple production line changes including shutdowns, restarts, new ignitions, and product conversions [22][24]. 3.6 Inventory - As of November 7, the inventory of 80 glass sample manufacturers nationwide was 6313.6 million weight boxes (-265.4). Inventories in different regions showed different trends, with some decreasing and some increasing [27]. 3.7 Deep - processing - On November 6, the comprehensive production - sales rate of float glass was 114% (unchanged). On November 7, the operating rate of LOW - E glass was 44.8% (+0.5%). In mid - October, the available order days for glass deep - processing were 10.4 days (-0.1) [28]. 3.8 Demand - Automobile - In September, China's automobile production was 3.276 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 461,000 vehicles and a year - on - year increase of 480,000 vehicles. Sales were 3.226 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 369,000 vehicles and a year - on - year increase of 417,000 vehicles. In September, the retail volume of new - energy passenger vehicles in China was 1.296 million vehicles, with a penetration rate of 57.8% [39]. 3.9 Demand - Real Estate - In September, China's real estate completion area was 34.3534 million m² (unchanged year - on - year), new construction area was 55.9831 million m² (-15% year - on - year), construction area was 54.7081 million m² (-16% year - on - year), and commercial housing sales area was 85.3087 million m² (-12% year - on - year). From October 27 to November 2, the total commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 2.03 million m², a month - on - month increase of 2% and a year - on - year decrease of 38%. In September, the real estate development investment was 739.652 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 21% [45]. 3.10 Cost - Soda Ash - Price - As of last weekend, the mainstream market prices of heavy soda ash were: 1325 yuan/ton (unchanged) in North China, 1250 yuan/ton (unchanged) in East China, 1300 yuan/ton (unchanged) in Central China, and 1450 yuan/ton (unchanged) in South China. Last Friday, the soda ash 2601 contract closed at 1210 yuan/ton (-15), and the basis of the soda ash Central China 01 contract was 90 yuan/ton (+15) [47][52]. 3.11 Cost - Soda Ash - Profit - As of last Friday, the cost of the ammonia - alkali method for soda ash enterprises was 1359 yuan/ton (+7), and the gross profit was - 44 yuan/ton (-2); the cost of the combined production method was 1791 yuan/ton (-1), and the gross profit was - 174 yuan/ton (-9). Other prices included the Hubei synthetic ammonia market price of 2250 yuan/ton (+65) and the Xuzhou Fengcheng ammonium chloride wet ammonium ex - factory price of 300 yuan/ton (unchanged) [55][56]. 3.12 Cost - Soda Ash - Inventory - Last weekend, the exchange's soda ash warehouse receipts were 8314 pieces (-237). As of September 25, the total national in - factory inventory of soda ash was 171.42 million tons (a month - on - month increase of 1.22 million tons), including 89.96 million tons of heavy soda ash (a month - on - month increase of 1.32 million tons) and 81.46 million tons of light soda ash (a month - on - month decrease of 0.1 million tons). Last week, the domestic soda ash production was 74.68 million tons (a week - on - week decrease of 1.08 million tons), including 41.48 million tons of heavy soda ash (a week - on - week decrease of 0.5 million tons) and 33.2 million tons of light soda ash (a week - on - week decrease of 0.58 million tons) [68][69]. 3.13 Cost - Soda Ash - Apparent Demand - Last week, the apparent demand for heavy soda ash was 40.16 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6.63 million tons; the apparent demand for light soda ash was 33.30 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.32 million tons. The production - sales rate of soda ash last week was 98.36%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.65%. In October, the inventory of sample float glass factories was equivalent to 21.6 days of soda ash consumption [73][76].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term [2]. - The supply - demand mismatch pattern in the soda ash industry has not been effectively improved, with high supply, declining terminal demand, and high inventory [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily View - Fundamentals: Alkali plant production is at a high level, with the expected commissioning of Yuanying Phase II before the end of the year, leading to an expected abundant overall supply. There are supply disturbance expectations for downstream float glass, and the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass continues to decline. The inventory of soda ash plants is at a historically high level for the same period, which is bearish [2]. - Basis: The spot price of heavy - quality soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,155 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2601 is 1,210 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 55 yuan, with the futures at a premium to the spot, which is bearish [2]. - Inventory: The national in - plant inventory of soda ash is 171,420 tons, an increase of 0.72% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average, which is bearish [2][34]. - Disk: The price is running below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward, which is bearish [2]. - Main positions: The main positions are net short, and the short positions are increasing, which is bearish [2]. - Expectation: The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term [2]. 3.2 Influencing Factors Summary 3.2.1 Bullish Factors - The supply of downstream glass has stabilized and rebounded from a low level, increasing the demand for soda ash [3]. 3.2.2 Bearish Factors - Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large commissioning plans this year. The industry's production is at a historically high level for the same period [4]. - The downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy - quality soda ash has cut production, weakening the demand for soda ash [4]. 3.3 Soda Ash Futures Market | Day Session | Main Contract Closing Price | Heavy - Quality Soda Ash: Low - End Price in Shahe | Main Basis | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Previous Value | 1,207 yuan/ton | 1,145 yuan/ton | - 62 yuan | | Current Value | 1,210 yuan/ton | 1,155 yuan/ton | - 55 yuan | | Change Rate | 0.25% | 0.87% | - 11.29% | [6] 3.4 Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy - quality soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market is 1,155 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. 3.5 Fundamental Analysis - Supply 3.5.1 Soda Ash Production Profit - The profit of heavy - quality soda ash using the North China ammonia - soda process is - 103.50 yuan/ton, and the profit using the East China co - production process is - 212 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash is at a historical low [15]. 3.5.2 Soda Ash Operating Rate and Production - The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 85.67% [18]. - The weekly production of soda ash is 746,800 tons, of which heavy - quality soda ash is 414,800 tons, and the production is at a historical high [20]. 3.5.3 Changes in Soda Ash Industry Production Capacity - In 2023, the newly added production capacity was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; and the planned newly added production capacity in 2025 is 7.5 million tons, with 1 million tons actually commissioned [21]. 3.6 Fundamental Analysis - Demand 3.6.1 Soda Ash Production and Sales Rate - The weekly production and sales rate of soda ash is 98.36% [24]. 3.6.2 Downstream Demand for Soda Ash - Float glass: The daily melting volume of national float glass is 159,100 tons, and the operating rate is 75.92% [27]. - Photovoltaic glass: The daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass continues to decline, and the demand for soda ash is weakening [2][4]. 3.7 Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The national in - plant inventory of soda ash is 171,420 tons, an increase of 0.72% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [2][34]. 3.8 Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The supply - demand balance sheet from 2017 to 2024E shows the changes in effective capacity, production, operating rate, import, export, net import, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, capacity growth rate, production growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate of soda ash [35].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. The supply of soda ash is at a high level, terminal demand is declining, inventories are at a high level in the same period, and the mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved [2][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 1,189 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.08% from the previous value. The low-end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1,145 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.29%. The main basis was -44 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.76% [6]. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low-end price of heavy soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market was 1,145 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. Soda Ash Production Profit - The profit of heavy soda ash using the North China ammonia-soda process was -101.70 yuan/ton, and the profit of the East China co-production process was -203 yuan/ton, at a historical low [15]. Soda Ash Capacity and Production - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash was 86.89%. The weekly production was 757,600 tons, including 419,800 tons of heavy soda ash, at a historical high [18][20]. Soda Ash Industry Capacity Changes - From 2023 to 2025, there were significant new capacity plans for soda ash. The new capacities in 2023, 2024, and the planned new capacity in 2025 were 6.4 million tons, 1.8 million tons, and 7.5 million tons respectively, with an actual planned production of 1 million tons in 2025 [21]. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - The weekly production and sales rate of soda ash was 99.78%. The daily melting volume of national float glass was 161,300 tons, with an operating rate of 76.35% and showing signs of stabilization [24][27]. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The national soda ash inventory in factories was 1.702 million tons, a decrease of 0.01% from the previous week, and the inventory was above the five-year average [34]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply and Demand Balance Sheet - The report provided the annual supply and demand balance sheets of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective capacity, production, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply-demand gap, capacity growth rate, production growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [35].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [2]. - The supply - demand mismatch pattern in the soda ash industry has not been effectively improved [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Viewpoints - Fundamentals: Alkali plant maintenance is less than expected, and the second - phase of Yuangxing is expected to be put into production before the end of the year. Overall supply is at a high level. Downstream float glass supply has many disturbances, and the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass continues to decline. The inventory of soda ash plants is at a historical high. It is bearish [2]. - Basis: The spot price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,185 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2601 is 1,259 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 74 yuan. The futures price is higher than the spot price. It is bearish [2]. - Inventory: The national soda ash plant inventory is 1.7021 million tons, an increase of 0.09% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average. It is bearish [2]. - Disk: The price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward. It is bearish [2]. - Main positions: The main positions are net short, and the short positions are decreasing. It is bearish [2]. Influencing Factors - Bullish factors: The daily melting volume of float glass has stabilized [3]. - Bearish factors: The main logic is that soda ash supply is at a high level, terminal demand is declining, inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the supply - demand mismatch pattern in the industry has not been effectively improved [4]. Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract increased from 1,239 yuan/ton to 1,259 yuan/ton, a rise of 1.61%. The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe remained unchanged at 1,185 yuan/ton. The main basis increased from - 54 yuan to - 74 yuan, a rise of 37.04% [6]. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,185 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [12]. Production Profit - The profit of heavy soda ash by the North China ammonia - soda process is - 92.40 yuan/ton, and that by the East China co - production process is - 199 yuan/ton, at a historical low [15]. Industry Capacity Changes - In 2023, the new capacity of soda ash was 6.4 million tons. In 2024, it was 1.8 million tons. In 2025, the planned new capacity is 7.5 million tons, with an actual production of 1 million tons [21]. Demand Analysis - The weekly production - sales rate of soda ash is 99.78% [24]. - The daily melting volume of national float glass is 161,300 tons, and the operating rate is 76.35% and has stabilized [27]. Inventory Analysis - The national soda ash plant inventory is 1.7021 million tons, an increase of 0.09% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [34]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance of soda ash has fluctuated in recent years. For example, in 2017, the supply - demand difference was 600,000 tons, while in 2018, it was - 490,000 tons [35].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [2]. - The supply - demand mismatch pattern in the soda ash industry has not been effectively improved, with high supply, declining terminal demand, and high inventory [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - Fundamentals: Alkali plant maintenance is less than expected, and the second - phase of Yuangxing is expected to be put into production before the end of the year. Overall supply is at a high level. Downstream float glass supply has many disturbances, and the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass continues to decline. Soda ash plant inventory is at a historical high. It is bearish [2]. - Basis: The spot price of heavy - quality soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1190 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2601 is 1246 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 56 yuan. The futures price is higher than the spot price. It is bearish [2]. - Inventory: The national soda ash plant inventory is 1.7021 million tons, an increase of 0.09% from the previous week. The inventory is above the 5 - year average. It is bearish [2]. - Disk: The price is running below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward. It is bearish [2]. - Main position: The main position is net short, and short positions are decreasing. It is bearish [2]. 3.2 Influencing Factors - Bullish factors: The daily melting volume of float glass has stabilized [3]. - Bearish factors: Main logic is that soda ash supply is at a high level, terminal demand is declining, inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the supply - demand mismatch pattern in the industry has not been effectively improved. Risk points include that the cold - repair of downstream float and photovoltaic glass is less than expected, and macro - level positive factors exceed expectations [4]. 3.3 Soda Ash Futures Market | Day Session | Main Contract Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Low - end Price of Heavy - Quality Soda Ash in Shahe (yuan/ton) | Main Basis (yuan/ton) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Previous Value | 1229 | 1180 | - 49 | | Current Value | 1246 | 1190 | - 56 | | Change Rate | 1.38% | 0.85% | 14.29% | [6] 3.4 Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy - quality soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1190 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. - Production profit: The profit of heavy - quality soda ash by the North China ammonia - soda process is - 92.40 yuan/ton, and that by the East China co - production process is - 199 yuan/ton. The production profit is at a historical low [15]. - Weekly industry operating rate: 84.94% [18]. - Weekly output: 740,600 tons, including 410,000 tons of heavy - quality soda ash. The output is at a historical high [20]. - New production capacity in 2023 was 6.4 million tons, 1.8 million tons in 2024, and the planned new production capacity in 2025 is 7.5 million tons, with 1 million tons actually put into production [21]. 3.5 Fundamental Analysis - Demand - Weekly sales - to - production ratio: 99.78% [24]. - Downstream demand: The daily melting volume of national float glass is 161,300 tons, and the operating rate of 76.35% has stabilized. The daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass is decreasing, and the demand for soda ash is weakening [27]. 3.6 Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The national soda ash plant inventory is 1.7021 million tons, an increase of 0.09% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [34]. 3.7 Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective capacity, output, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, capacity growth rate, output growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [35].