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大越期货纯碱早报-20251105
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-11-05 02:16
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. The supply of soda ash is at a high level, terminal demand is declining, inventories are at a high level in the same period, and the mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved [2][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 1,189 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.08% from the previous value. The low-end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1,145 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.29%. The main basis was -44 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.76% [6]. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low-end price of heavy soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market was 1,145 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. Soda Ash Production Profit - The profit of heavy soda ash using the North China ammonia-soda process was -101.70 yuan/ton, and the profit of the East China co-production process was -203 yuan/ton, at a historical low [15]. Soda Ash Capacity and Production - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash was 86.89%. The weekly production was 757,600 tons, including 419,800 tons of heavy soda ash, at a historical high [18][20]. Soda Ash Industry Capacity Changes - From 2023 to 2025, there were significant new capacity plans for soda ash. The new capacities in 2023, 2024, and the planned new capacity in 2025 were 6.4 million tons, 1.8 million tons, and 7.5 million tons respectively, with an actual planned production of 1 million tons in 2025 [21]. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - The weekly production and sales rate of soda ash was 99.78%. The daily melting volume of national float glass was 161,300 tons, with an operating rate of 76.35% and showing signs of stabilization [24][27]. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The national soda ash inventory in factories was 1.702 million tons, a decrease of 0.01% from the previous week, and the inventory was above the five-year average [34]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply and Demand Balance Sheet - The report provided the annual supply and demand balance sheets of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective capacity, production, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply-demand gap, capacity growth rate, production growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [35].
大越期货纯碱早报-20251030
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-10-30 02:37
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [2]. - The supply - demand mismatch pattern in the soda ash industry has not been effectively improved [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Viewpoints - Fundamentals: Alkali plant maintenance is less than expected, and the second - phase of Yuangxing is expected to be put into production before the end of the year. Overall supply is at a high level. Downstream float glass supply has many disturbances, and the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass continues to decline. The inventory of soda ash plants is at a historical high. It is bearish [2]. - Basis: The spot price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,185 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2601 is 1,259 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 74 yuan. The futures price is higher than the spot price. It is bearish [2]. - Inventory: The national soda ash plant inventory is 1.7021 million tons, an increase of 0.09% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average. It is bearish [2]. - Disk: The price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward. It is bearish [2]. - Main positions: The main positions are net short, and the short positions are decreasing. It is bearish [2]. Influencing Factors - Bullish factors: The daily melting volume of float glass has stabilized [3]. - Bearish factors: The main logic is that soda ash supply is at a high level, terminal demand is declining, inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the supply - demand mismatch pattern in the industry has not been effectively improved [4]. Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract increased from 1,239 yuan/ton to 1,259 yuan/ton, a rise of 1.61%. The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe remained unchanged at 1,185 yuan/ton. The main basis increased from - 54 yuan to - 74 yuan, a rise of 37.04% [6]. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,185 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [12]. Production Profit - The profit of heavy soda ash by the North China ammonia - soda process is - 92.40 yuan/ton, and that by the East China co - production process is - 199 yuan/ton, at a historical low [15]. Industry Capacity Changes - In 2023, the new capacity of soda ash was 6.4 million tons. In 2024, it was 1.8 million tons. In 2025, the planned new capacity is 7.5 million tons, with an actual production of 1 million tons [21]. Demand Analysis - The weekly production - sales rate of soda ash is 99.78% [24]. - The daily melting volume of national float glass is 161,300 tons, and the operating rate is 76.35% and has stabilized [27]. Inventory Analysis - The national soda ash plant inventory is 1.7021 million tons, an increase of 0.09% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [34]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance of soda ash has fluctuated in recent years. For example, in 2017, the supply - demand difference was 600,000 tons, while in 2018, it was - 490,000 tons [35].
大越期货纯碱早报-20251028
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-10-28 02:38
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [2]. - The supply - demand mismatch pattern in the soda ash industry has not been effectively improved, with high supply, declining terminal demand, and high inventory [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - Fundamentals: Alkali plant maintenance is less than expected, and the second - phase of Yuangxing is expected to be put into production before the end of the year. Overall supply is at a high level. Downstream float glass supply has many disturbances, and the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass continues to decline. Soda ash plant inventory is at a historical high. It is bearish [2]. - Basis: The spot price of heavy - quality soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1190 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2601 is 1246 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 56 yuan. The futures price is higher than the spot price. It is bearish [2]. - Inventory: The national soda ash plant inventory is 1.7021 million tons, an increase of 0.09% from the previous week. The inventory is above the 5 - year average. It is bearish [2]. - Disk: The price is running below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward. It is bearish [2]. - Main position: The main position is net short, and short positions are decreasing. It is bearish [2]. 3.2 Influencing Factors - Bullish factors: The daily melting volume of float glass has stabilized [3]. - Bearish factors: Main logic is that soda ash supply is at a high level, terminal demand is declining, inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the supply - demand mismatch pattern in the industry has not been effectively improved. Risk points include that the cold - repair of downstream float and photovoltaic glass is less than expected, and macro - level positive factors exceed expectations [4]. 3.3 Soda Ash Futures Market | Day Session | Main Contract Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Low - end Price of Heavy - Quality Soda Ash in Shahe (yuan/ton) | Main Basis (yuan/ton) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Previous Value | 1229 | 1180 | - 49 | | Current Value | 1246 | 1190 | - 56 | | Change Rate | 1.38% | 0.85% | 14.29% | [6] 3.4 Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy - quality soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1190 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. - Production profit: The profit of heavy - quality soda ash by the North China ammonia - soda process is - 92.40 yuan/ton, and that by the East China co - production process is - 199 yuan/ton. The production profit is at a historical low [15]. - Weekly industry operating rate: 84.94% [18]. - Weekly output: 740,600 tons, including 410,000 tons of heavy - quality soda ash. The output is at a historical high [20]. - New production capacity in 2023 was 6.4 million tons, 1.8 million tons in 2024, and the planned new production capacity in 2025 is 7.5 million tons, with 1 million tons actually put into production [21]. 3.5 Fundamental Analysis - Demand - Weekly sales - to - production ratio: 99.78% [24]. - Downstream demand: The daily melting volume of national float glass is 161,300 tons, and the operating rate of 76.35% has stabilized. The daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass is decreasing, and the demand for soda ash is weakening [27]. 3.6 Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The national soda ash plant inventory is 1.7021 million tons, an increase of 0.09% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [34]. 3.7 Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective capacity, output, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, capacity growth rate, output growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [35].
下游刚需为主 预计纯碱01合约短期震荡运行
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-10-27 08:06
上周国内纯碱产量74.06吨,环比增加0.01万吨。其中,轻质碱产量33.06万吨,环比增加0.57万吨。重质 碱产量40.99万吨,环比下跌0.56万吨。 10月23日纯碱企业库存录得170.21万吨,较上一交易日减少0.86万吨。 10月27日,纯碱期货主力合约报收于1246.00元/吨,震荡上行1.38%。 【消息面汇总】 10月27日,内蒙古博源银根化工500万吨/年纯碱装置减量运行,目前轻碱合格品出厂价900元/吨;唐山 三友230万吨/年纯碱装置减量运行,负荷7成左右。 机构观点 宁证期货:浮法玻璃开工较稳,库存上升,沙河市场成交尚可,部分小板价格略有下调,下游逢低采购 为主。国内纯碱市场弱稳维持,成交气氛一般,河南中天逐步提量运行,供应窄幅增加,临近月底,下 游需求表现一般,低价刚需为主。预计纯碱01合约短期震荡运行,下方支撑1220一线,建议观望或回调 短线做多。 兴业期货:纯碱供过于求,产量提升至10.85万吨,高库存和刚需为主的市场环境导致价格承压,但煤 价偏强和合约升水提供一定支撑,价格驱动向下但估值空间有限。 ...
基本面未有根本改善 纯碱期货盘面继续底部盘整
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-10-17 08:02
News Summary Core Viewpoint - The domestic soda ash market is experiencing a decline in production and prices, with inventory levels increasing, indicating potential supply pressures and a cautious demand outlook [1][2][3]. Group 1: Production and Inventory - Chongqing Heyou Industrial has reduced operations at its 400,000 tons/year soda ash facility, while Tangshan Sanyou is operating at about 70% capacity at its 2.3 million tons/year facility. Shandong Haitai has resumed production at its 1.5 million tons/year facility [1]. - As of October 16, 2025, total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers reached 1.7005 million tons, an increase of 15,900 tons from the previous Monday, reflecting a rise of 0.94% [1]. - This week, domestic soda ash production was reported at 740,500 tons, a decrease of 30,300 tons, representing a decline of 3.93% [1]. Group 2: Pricing Trends - As of this week, the mainstream price range for light soda ash is between 930-1,600 RMB/ton, while heavy soda ash prices range from 940-1,480 RMB/ton. Most regions have seen price declines between 10-85 RMB/ton, with the northwest region experiencing a significant drop of 7.98% for heavy soda ash [1]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Outlook - According to Everbright Futures, the current spot prices for soda ash are stable, with a slight decrease in supply but an increase in inventory. Demand remains steady, but market sentiment is cautious, leading to a lack of new drivers in the futures market [2]. - Galaxy Futures notes that while soda ash production has slightly decreased, inventory accumulation indicates supply pressure. Despite a drop in futures prices, transaction volumes have increased, suggesting that the fundamental situation has not fundamentally improved, and policy uncertainties persist [3].
纯碱月刊:节前备货有限 金九成色不足(202509期)
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-30 08:57
Group 1: Market Overview - The domestic soda ash market is currently experiencing a weak and stable trend, with prices fluctuating within a narrow range. As of now, the mainstream price for light soda ash is between 980-1600 RMB/ton, while heavy soda ash is priced at 980-1480 RMB/ton [1] - The market began the month with a downward trend due to high inventory and weak demand, particularly in North and South China. However, by mid-month, prices stabilized and saw slight increases in some regions due to supply constraints and pre-holiday stocking [1][2] - By the end of the month, the market showed signs of slight recovery, but overall demand remained sluggish, leading to a narrow price range with limited upward momentum [1][2] Group 2: Price Comparison - In September, the price of light soda ash in Northeast China decreased by 1.68% compared to August, while heavy soda ash dropped by 3.19%. In North China, light soda ash prices fell by 4.24%, and heavy soda ash decreased by 3.19% [3] - The price index for light soda ash as of September 28 was 1185.71, reflecting a decrease of 0.24% from the beginning of the month, while the heavy soda ash index increased by 0.93% [4] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of soda ash is expected to recover to high levels due to limited maintenance in the upcoming month, while overall industry inventory remains high, leading manufacturers to focus on sales to reduce stock [6] - The soda ash production in August was 3.281 million tons, showing a year-on-year increase of 2.92% and a month-on-month increase of 5.87% [16] - The operating rate of soda ash enterprises in August was approximately 85.25%, reflecting a slight increase of 4.09% from the previous month [18] Group 4: Import and Export Analysis - In August, China imported 0.03 thousand tons of soda ash, a significant year-on-year decrease of 99.64% and a month-on-month decrease of 90.98%. Cumulatively, from January to August, imports totaled approximately 2.07 thousand tons, down 97.68% from the previous year [9] - Conversely, soda ash exports in August reached 21.54 thousand tons, marking a year-on-year increase of 158.11% and a month-on-month increase of 33.56%. From January to August, total exports amounted to 136.94 thousand tons, up 132.58% year-on-year [12]
玻璃纯碱早报-20250929
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-09-29 00:44
Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found. Core Viewpoints - In the glass market, spot prices in various regions showed different trends, with some increasing and some remaining stable, and the production - sales situation also varied by region. In the soda ash market, factory inventory decreased significantly while delivery warehouses had a small increase, and downstream demand was driven by pre - holiday restocking [2]. Summary by Related Content Glass - **Spot Price Changes**: From September 19th to September 26th, the price of 5mm large - plate glass in Shahe Security increased from 1155.0 to 1224.0, a weekly increase of 69.0 and a daily increase of 17.0; Wuhan Changli's 5mm large - plate glass price rose from 1100.0 to 1180.0, a weekly increase of 80.0 and a daily increase of 40.0. However, the prices of Shandong and South China's 5mm large - plate glass remained unchanged [2]. - **Futures Contract Price Changes**: The FG05 contract price decreased from 1383.0 on September 25th to 1372.0 on September 26th, a daily decrease of 11.0; the FG01 contract price dropped from 1270.0 to 1252.0, a daily decrease of 18.0 [2]. - **Price Difference Changes**: The FG 1 - 5 spread was - 120.0 on September 26th, with a weekly increase of 7.0 and a daily decrease of 7.0; the 01 Hebei basis was - 49.0 on September 26th, with a weekly increase of 24.0 and a daily increase of 23.0 [2]. - **Profit Changes**: North China's coal - fired profit increased from 291.6 on September 25th to 302.2 on September 26th, a daily increase of 10.6; North China's natural gas profit increased from - 159.3 to - 150.1, a daily increase of 9.2 [2]. - **Production - Sales Situation**: The production - sales rates in Shahe, Hubei, East China, and South China were 104, 108, 116, and 157 respectively [2]. Soda Ash - **Spot Price Changes**: From September 19th to September 26th, the price of Shahe heavy soda decreased from 1230.0 to 1200.0, a weekly decrease of 30.0 and a daily decrease of 20.0; North China's light soda price dropped from 1170.0 to 1120.0, a weekly decrease of 50.0 and a daily decrease of 10.0 [2]. - **Futures Contract Price Changes**: The SA05 contract price decreased from 1404.0 on September 25th to 1384.0 on September 26th, a daily decrease of 20.0; the SA01 contract price dropped from 1315.0 to 1293.0, a daily decrease of 22.0 [2]. - **Price Difference Changes**: The SA01 - SA05 spread was - 91.0 on September 26th, a weekly decrease of 2.0 and a daily decrease of 2.0; the SA01 Shahe basis was - 93.0 on September 26th, a weekly decrease of 5.0 and a daily increase of 2.0 [2]. - **Profit Changes**: North China's ammonia - soda process profit decreased from - 152.0 on September 25th to - 168.8 on September 26th, a daily decrease of 16.8; North China's combined - soda process profit dropped from - 175.0 to - 192.4, a daily decrease of 17.4 [2]. - **Inventory Situation**: Factory inventory decreased significantly, while delivery warehouses had a small increase, and overall inventory decreased [2].
9.23纯碱日评:纯碱市场稳中偏弱运行
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-24 08:40
Group 1 - The overall domestic soda ash market is showing a stable yet slightly weak trend, with some regional price declines [2] - In North China, the mainstream price for light soda ash is maintained at 1170-1270 CNY/ton, while heavy soda ash is priced at 1220-1320 CNY/ton [2] - The supply from Hai Jing Yue He production line has returned to normal, leading to a slight increase in industry supply [2] Group 2 - The light soda ash price index on September 23 is 1184.29, a decrease of 4.29 from the previous working day, representing a -0.36% change [3] - The heavy soda ash price index is 1232.86, down 7.14 from the previous working day, indicating a -0.58% change [3] Group 3 - On September 23, the main futures contract SA2601 opened at 1287 CNY/ton and closed at 1273 CNY/ton, with an intraday decline of 2.60% [5] - The futures market is experiencing a weak oscillation pattern, influenced by the low sentiment in the chemical sector and the decline in glass futures prices [5] - Despite some pre-holiday inventory replenishment, the overall market sentiment remains cautious due to high supply levels and increasing losses for companies [5] Group 4 - Future supply of soda ash is expected to remain high, with limited maintenance plans, while demand is stable with modest support from pre-holiday stocking [6] - Current manufacturer inventory pressure is not significant, and there is a strong intention to maintain prices, suggesting that future prices will likely oscillate and stabilize [6]
大越期货纯碱早报-20250923
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-09-23 02:36
Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. The supply is at a high level, terminal demand is declining, inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved [2][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Alkali plant maintenance is less, supply is still at a high level; the daily melting volume of downstream float glass is stable, the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass continues to decline, terminal demand is general, and the inventory of soda ash plants is at a high level in the same period; bearish [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,200 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2601 is 1,293 yuan/ton, the basis is -93 yuan, and the futures price is higher than the spot price; bearish [2]. - **Inventory**: The national soda ash plant inventory is 1.7556 million tons, a decrease of 2.33% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5-year average; bearish [2][35]. - **Disk**: The price is running below the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is downward; bearish [2]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position increases; bearish [2]. - **Expectation**: The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [2]. Influencing Factors Summary - **Likely to Rise**: The peak maintenance period within the year is coming, and the output is expected to decline [3]. - **Likely to Fall**: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year, and the industry output is at a high level in the same period; the downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy soda ash has reduced production, and the demand for soda ash has weakened; the positive sentiment of macro policies has subsided [4]. Main Logic The supply of soda ash is at a high level, terminal demand is declining, inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved [5]. Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 1,293 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.90% from the previous value; the low-end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe is 1,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.04% from the previous value; the main basis is -93 yuan, unchanged from the previous value [6]. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low-end price of the heavy soda ash market in Hebei Shahe is 1,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton from the previous day [11]. Fundamental Analysis - Production - **Production Profit**: The profit of heavy soda ash by North China ammonia-alkali method is -96.75 yuan/ton, and the profit of East China co-production method is -108.50 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash has rebounded from a historical low [14]. - **Operating Rate and Production**: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 85.53%, and the weekly output is 745,700 tons, of which heavy soda ash is 417,700 tons, and the output is at a historical high [17][19]. - **Production Capacity Change**: In 2023, the new production capacity of soda ash was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; in 2025, the planned new production capacity is 7.5 million tons, and the actual production is 1 million tons [20]. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - **Production and Sales Rate**: The weekly production and sales rate of soda ash is 103.56% [23]. - **Downstream Demand**: The national daily melting volume of float glass is 160,200 tons, and the operating rate is 76.01% and stabilizes; the price of photovoltaic glass continues to fall, affected by the "anti-involution" policy, the industry reduces production, and the daily melting volume in production continues to decline significantly [26][32]. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory The national soda ash plant inventory is 1.7556 million tons, a decrease of 2.33% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5-year average [35]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply and Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the annual supply and demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including effective production capacity, output, operating rate, import, export, net import, apparent supply, total demand, supply and demand difference, production capacity growth rate, output growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [36].
大越期货纯碱早报-20250922
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-09-22 04:42
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View The fundamentals of soda ash are weak. The supply is at a high level, the end - demand is declining, and the inventory is at a high level in the same period. The pattern of supply - demand mismatch in the industry has not been effectively improved. In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate mainly [2][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily View - The supply of soda ash is high as there are few alkali plant overhauls, while the daily melting volume of downstream float glass is stable and that of photovoltaic glass continues to decline. The terminal demand is average, and the factory inventory of soda ash is at a high level in the same period [2]. - The basis is - 93 yuan, with futures at a premium to the spot [2]. - The national soda ash factory inventory is 1.7556 million tons, a decrease of 2.33% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [2][35]. - The price is running above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward [2]. - The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing [2]. - The short - term trend of soda ash is expected to be mainly volatile [2]. 3.2 Influencing Factors - **Likely Positive Factors**: The peak overhaul period within the year is approaching, and the production is expected to decline [3]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The industry production is at a high level in the same period. The downstream photovoltaic glass has cut production, and the demand for soda ash has weakened. The positive sentiment of macro - policies has subsided [4]. 3.3 Main Logic The supply of soda ash is high, the terminal demand is declining, and the inventory is at a high level in the same period. The pattern of supply - demand mismatch in the industry has not been effectively improved [5]. 3.4 Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 1318 yuan/ton, with a increase of 0.92% compared with the previous value. The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe is 1225 yuan/ton, with a increase of 1.24%. The main basis is - 93 yuan, a decrease of 3.13% [6]. 3.5 Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market is 1225 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton from the previous day [11]. - The profit of heavy soda ash in North China's ammonia - soda process is - 96.75 yuan/ton, and that in East China's co - production process is - 108.50 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash has rebounded from a historical low [14]. - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash is 85.53%, and the weekly production is 745,700 tons, including 417,700 tons of heavy soda ash, with the production at a historical high [17][19]. - From 2023 to 2025, there have been significant expansions in soda ash production capacity, with new production capacities of 6.4 million tons, 1.8 million tons, and a planned 7.5 million tons (1 million tons actually put into production) respectively [20]. 3.6 Fundamental Analysis - Demand - The weekly production - sales rate of soda ash is 103.56% [23]. - The daily melting volume of national float glass is 160,200 tons, and the operating rate of 76.01% is stable [26]. - The price of photovoltaic glass continues to fall. Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, the industry has cut production, and the daily melting volume in production continues a significant downward trend [32]. 3.7 Fundamental Analysis - Inventory The national soda ash factory inventory is 1.7556 million tons, a decrease of 2.33% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [35]. 3.8 Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective capacity, production, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, and growth rates [36].