Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, and it is expected to mainly fluctuate and move downward in the short term. The supply of soda ash is at a high level, terminal demand is declining, inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the pattern of supply - demand mismatch in the industry has not been effectively improved [2][5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily View - The fundamentals show that the output of soda ash plants is at a high level, the second - phase of Yuangxing is expected to be put into production before the end of the year, and the overall supply is expected to be abundant; the daily melting volume of downstream float glass and photovoltaic glass continues to decline, and the inventory of soda ash plants is at a high level in the same period, which is bearish [2]. - The basis is - 32 yuan, with futures at a premium to spot, which is bearish [2]. - The national inventory of soda ash plants is 153.86 million tons, a decrease of 3.07% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average, which is bearish [2]. - The price is running below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward, which is bearish [2]. - The net position of the main force is short, and short positions are increasing, which is bearish [2]. 2. Influence Factors Summary - **Lithium**: Equipment problems lead to production reduction and maintenance of enterprises, and the recovery of soda ash supply is slow [3]. - **Negative**: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year, and the industry output is at a high level in the same period; the production of photovoltaic glass, a downstream product of heavy soda, has been reduced, and the demand for soda ash has weakened [4]. 3. Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 1162 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.26% from the previous value; the low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe is 1130 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous value; the main basis is - 32 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.57% from the previous value [6]. 4. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market is 1130 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [11]. - The profit of heavy soda ash in North China's ammonia - soda process is - 118.50 yuan/ton, and that in East China's co - production process is - 220 yuan/ton, at a historical low [14]. - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash is 80.08%, and the weekly output is 69.82 million tons, including 38.31 million tons of heavy soda ash, with the output at a historical high [17][19]. - From 2023 to 2025, a large amount of new production capacity has been added or is planned to be added, with a total planned addition of 1570 million tons and an actual addition of 920 million tons [20]. 5. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - The weekly production - sales rate of soda ash is 108.16% [23]. - The daily melting volume of national float glass is 15.72 million tons, and the operating rate is 74.85% [26]. 6. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The national inventory of soda ash plants is 153.86 million tons, a decrease of 3.07% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average [33]. 7. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2017 to 2024E, the supply - demand situation of soda ash has fluctuated. In 2024E, the effective production capacity is 3930 million tons, the output is 3650 million tons, the apparent supply is 3536 million tons, the total demand is 3379 million tons, and the supply - demand difference is 157 million tons [34].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, with high supply, declining terminal demand, and high inventory. The industry's supply - demand mismatch has not been effectively improved, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [2][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Alkali plant production is at a high level. The second - phase of Yuangxing is expected to be put into production before the end of the year, and the overall supply is expected to be abundant. The daily melting volume of downstream float glass and photovoltaic glass has been declining, and the inventory of soda ash plants is at a historically high level, which is bearish [2] - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy - quality soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1145 yuan/ton, and the closing price of SA2601 is 1176 yuan/ton. The basis is - 31 yuan, with futures at a premium to the spot, which is bearish [2] - **Inventory**: The national inventory of soda ash in plants is 158.74 tons, a decrease of 3.47% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average, which is bearish [2][33] - **Disk**: The price is running below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward, which is bearish [2] - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and short positions are decreasing, which is bearish [2] - **Expectation**: The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [2] 3.2 Influencing Factors Summary - **Positive Factors**: Equipment problems have led to production reduction and maintenance of enterprises, and the recovery of soda ash supply is slow [3] - **Negative Factors**: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly. There are still large production - launch plans this year, and the industry's output is at a historically high level. The downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy - quality soda ash has reduced production, and the demand for soda ash has weakened [4] 3.3 Main Logic and Risk Points - **Main Logic**: The supply of soda ash is at a high level, the terminal demand is declining, the inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the supply - demand mismatch pattern in the industry has not been effectively improved [5] 3.4 Soda Ash Futures Market | | Main Contract Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Heavy - quality Soda Ash: Shahe Low - end Price (yuan/ton) | Main Basis (yuan/ton) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Previous Value | 1177 | 1145 | - 32 | | Current Value | 1176 | 1145 | - 31 | | Change Rate | - 0.08% | 0.00% | - 3.13% | [6] 3.5 Soda Ash Spot Market - **Market Price**: The low - end price of heavy - quality soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market is 1145 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [11] - **Production Profit**: The profit of heavy - quality soda ash by North China ammonia - soda process is - 118.50 yuan/ton, and that by East China co - production process is - 220 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash is at a historical low [14] - **Operating Rate and Output**: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 80.08%. The weekly output of soda ash is 69.82 tons, including 38.31 tons of heavy - quality soda ash, and the output is at a historical high [17][19] - **Production Capacity Changes**: In 2023, 640 tons of new production capacity were added; in 2024, 180 tons were added; in 2025, the planned new production capacity is 750 tons, with actual production of 100 tons [20] 3.6 Fundamental Analysis - Demand - **Sales - to - production Ratio**: The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash is 108.16% [23] - **Downstream Demand**: The daily melting volume of national float glass is 15.72 tons, with an operating rate of 74.85% [26] 3.7 Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The national inventory of soda ash in plants is 158.74 tons, a decrease of 3.47% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [33] 3.8 Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Effective Production Capacity (tons) | Output (tons) | Operating Rate | Import (tons) | Export (tons) | Net Import (tons) | Apparent Supply (tons) | Total Demand (tons) | Supply - Demand Difference (tons) | Production Capacity Growth Rate | Output Growth Rate | Apparent Supply Growth Rate | Total Demand Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2017 | 3035 | 2715 | 89.46% | 14 | 152 | - 138 | 2577 | 2517 | 60 | 2.20% | 5.10% | 7.40% | 4.60% | | 2018 | 3087 | 2583 | 83.57% | 29 | 138 | - 109 | 2474 | 2523 | - 49 | 1.85% | - 4.86% | - 4.00% | 0.24% | | 2019 | 3247 | 2804 | 86.36% | 19 | 144 | - 125 | 2679 | 2631 | 48 | 5.05% | 8.56% | 8.29% | 4.28% | | 2020 | 3317 | 2757 | 73.40% | 36 | 138 | - 102 | 2655 | 2607 | 48 | 2.16% | - 1.68% | - 0.90% | - 0.91% | | 2021 | 3288 | 2892 | 71.90% | 23 | 73 | - 50 | 2842 | 2764 | 78 | - 0.87% | 4.90% | 7.04% | 6.02% | | 2022 | 3114 | 2944 | 85.26% | 11 | 206 | - 195 | 2749 | 2913 | - 164 | - 5.29% | 1.80% | - 3.27% | 5.39% | | 2023 | 3342 | 3228 | 87.76% | 82 | 144 | - 62 | 3166 | 3155 | 11 | 7.32% | 9.65% | 15.17% | 8.31% | | 2024E | 3930 | 3650 | 78.20% | 42 | 156 | - 114 | 3536 | 3379 | 157 | 17.59% | 13.07% | 11.69% | 7.10% | [34]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. The supply is at a high level, terminal demand is declining, inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved [2][5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily View - The fundamentals show that the output of soda ash plants is at a high level, the second - phase of Yuangxing is expected to be put into production before the end of the year, and the overall supply is expected to be abundant. The daily melting volume of downstream float glass and photovoltaic glass continues to decline, and the inventory of soda ash plants is at a high level in the same period, which is bearish [2]. - The basis is - 32 yuan, with futures at a premium to spot, which is bearish [2]. - The national inventory of soda ash plants is 1587,400 tons, a decrease of 3.47% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average, which is bearish [2]. - The price is running below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward, which is bearish [2]. - The net position of the main contract is short, and short positions are increasing, which is bearish [2]. 2. Influencing Factors Summary - **Lithium Factors**: Equipment problems have led to reduced maintenance in enterprises, and the recovery of soda ash supply is slow [3]. - **Bearish Factors**: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The industry output is at a high level in the same period. The downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy soda ash has cut production, and the demand for soda ash is weakening [4]. 3. Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 1177 yuan/ton, the low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe is 1145 yuan/ton, and the main basis is - 32 yuan. The closing price of the main contract has increased by 0.09%, the low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe has increased by 0.44%, and the main basis has decreased by 11.11% [6]. 4. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market is 1145 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton from the previous day [11]. - The profit of heavy soda ash produced by the North China ammonia - soda process is - 118.50 yuan/ton, and the profit of the East China co - production process is - 220 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash is at a historical low [14]. - The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 80.08%. The weekly output of soda ash is 698,200 tons, of which 383,100 tons is heavy soda ash, and the output is at a historical high [17][19]. - From 2023 to 2025, there have been continuous new production capacity plans for soda ash. The new production capacity in 2023 is 6.4 million tons, 1.8 million tons in 2024, and the planned new production capacity in 2025 is 7.5 million tons, with 1 million tons actually put into production [20]. 5. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - The weekly production and sales rate of soda ash is 108.16% [23]. - The daily melting volume of national float glass is 157,200 tons, and the operating rate is 74.85% [26]. 6. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The national inventory of soda ash plants is 1587,400 tons, a decrease of 3.47% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [33]. 7. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2017 to 2022, the supply - demand situation of soda ash has fluctuated. In 2023, the supply - demand difference was 110,000 tons. In 2024E, the supply - demand difference is expected to be 157,000 tons [34].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, with high supply, declining terminal demand, and high inventory levels. The supply - demand mismatch in the industry has not been effectively improved. Short - term, it is expected to fluctuate and move downward mainly [2][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily View - Fundamental analysis shows that alkali plant production is at a high level, with the expected commissioning of Yuangxing Phase II before the end of the year, leading to an expected abundant supply. The daily melting volume of downstream float glass and photovoltaic glass continues to decline, and soda ash plant inventories are at historical highs, indicating a bearish outlook [2]. - The basis is - 36 yuan, with futures at a premium to spot, which is bearish [2]. - National soda ash plant inventories are 1.5874 million tons, a 3.47% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average, bearish [2]. - The price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, bearish [2]. - The net position of the main players is short, and short positions are decreasing, bearish [2]. - Overall, the short - term outlook for soda ash is expected to be mainly in a fluctuating and downward trend [2]. 3.2 Influencing Factors 3.2.1 Bullish Factors - Equipment problems have led to reduced maintenance in enterprises, and the recovery of soda ash supply is slow [3]. 3.2.2 Bearish Factors - Since 2023, soda ash production capacity has expanded significantly, and there are still large commissioning plans this year, with industry production at historical highs [4]. - The downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy soda ash has cut production, leading to a weakening demand for soda ash [4]. 3.3 Main Logic - The main logic is that soda ash supply is at a high level, terminal demand is declining, inventory is at a high level compared to the same period, and the supply - demand mismatch in the industry has not been effectively improved [5]. 3.4 Soda Ash Futures Market | Day Session | Main Contract Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Low - end Price of Heavy Soda Ash in Shahe (yuan/ton) | Main Basis (yuan/ton) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Previous Value | 1175 | 1140 | - 35 | | Current Value | 1176 | 1140 | - 36 | | Change Rate | 0.09% | 0.00% | 2.86% | [6] 3.5 Soda Ash Spot Market The low - end price of heavy soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market is 1140 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [12]. 3.6 Fundamentals - Supply - The profit of heavy soda ash production using the North China ammonia - soda process is - 118.50 yuan/ton, and that using the East China co - production process is - 221.5 yuan/ton, at historical lows [16]. - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash is 84.80% [19]. - The weekly soda ash production is 720,900 tons, including 396,200 tons of heavy soda ash, at historical highs [21]. - From 2023 to 2025, there have been significant expansions in soda ash production capacity, with a total planned new capacity of 1.57 billion tons, and 100 million tons have been actually commissioned in 2025 [22]. 3.7 Fundamentals - Demand - The weekly soda ash production and sales rate is 100.93% [25]. - The daily melting volume of national float glass is 158,100 tons, and the operating rate is 74.85% [28]. 3.8 Fundamentals - Inventory National soda ash plant inventories are 1.5874 million tons, a 3.47% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [35]. 3.9 Fundamentals - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The historical supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash shows changes in effective capacity, production, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, and supply - demand differences from 2017 to 2024E, as well as the growth rates of various indicators [36].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, and it is expected to mainly move in a volatile and downward trend in the short term. The supply of soda ash is at a high level, terminal demand is declining, inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the pattern of supply - demand mismatch in the industry has not been effectively improved [2][5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 1,175 yuan/ton, up 0.17% from the previous value; the low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1,140 yuan/ton, with no change; the main basis was - 35 yuan/ton, up 6.06% [6] 2. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market was 1,140 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [12] 3. Fundamentals - Supply - **Production Profit**: The profit of heavy soda ash by the North China ammonia - soda process was - 118.50 yuan/ton, and that by the East China co - production process was - 221.5 yuan/ton, at a historical low [16] - **Operating Rate and Production**: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry was 84.80%. The weekly production was 72.09 tons, including 39.62 tons of heavy soda ash, at a historical high [19][21] - **Capacity Changes**: In 2023, the new capacity was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; in 2025, the planned new capacity was 7.5 million tons, with an actual production of 1 million tons [22] 4. Fundamentals - Demand - **Sales - to - Production Ratio**: The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash was 100.93% [25] - **Downstream Demand**: The daily melting volume of national float glass was 158,100 tons, with an operating rate of 74.85% [28] 5. Fundamentals - Inventory - The inventory of soda ash in factories nationwide was 1.6444 million tons, a decrease of 3.68% from the previous week, and the inventory was running above the five - year average [35] 6. Fundamentals - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance sheets from 2017 to 2024E are provided, showing changes in effective capacity, production, operating rate, import, export, net import, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, capacity growth rate, production growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [36] Influencing Factors - **Positive Factors**: Equipment problems have led to reduced maintenance in enterprises, and the recovery of soda ash supply is slow [3] - **Negative Factors**: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The industry's production is at a historical high in the same period. The downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy soda ash has reduced production, and the demand for soda ash has weakened [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The current soda ash market sentiment is poor, and prices may run weakly. However, the absolute valuation of soda ash is not high. As the load and inventory gradually decline, the room for further price decline may be limited [6]. - The improvement in the light soda ash market and the decline in soda ash load have partially alleviated the downward trend of the near - term contract, but the continuous weakness on the demand side may suppress the driving force for prices to continue to strengthen. The impact of the main contract roll - over on the price spread should be monitored, and in the short term, it is more likely to continue the volatile adjustment [10]. - In the medium - term expansion cycle, low industry profits may become the norm due to the continuous rise in costs [36]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Price - This week, the main 01 contract of soda ash weakened and fell below the recent phased low, with the price center of gravity moving down again. As of Thursday's close, the 01 contract of soda ash finally closed at 1,158 yuan/ton [6]. Spot Market - Recently, the price of light soda ash has been relatively firm, while the price of heavy soda ash has continued to be weakly stable, with downstream demand mainly for rigid restocking. As of Thursday, the closing price of the 2601 contract of soda ash was 1,158 yuan/ton. As of now, the price of heavy soda ash in North China is 1,210 - 1,320 yuan/ton, about 1,260 - 1,320 yuan/ton in East China, and about 1,230 - 1,320 yuan/ton in Central China. The market price of light soda ash in East China is 1,180 yuan/ton, about 1,250 yuan/ton in North China, and about 1,150 yuan/ton in Central China [8]. Basis and Spread - In terms of basis, the basis of the 01 contract in each region has strengthened month - on - month. As of Thursday, the basis of the 01 contract of heavy soda ash in North China was about 142 yuan/ton, and about 42 yuan/ton in Central China. In terms of spread, as of Thursday, the spread between the 01 and 05 contracts of soda ash was - 74 yuan/ton, with a narrow month - on - month adjustment [10]. Production Capacity Utilization - This week, the domestic soda ash operating rate continued to decline compared with last week. As of November 20, the comprehensive capacity utilization rate of domestic soda ash was about 82.68%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.12%. Among them, the utilization rate of ammonia - soda production capacity was about 89.77%, a decrease of 1.08% compared with last week; the utilization rate of combined - soda production capacity was about 69.51%, a month - on - month decrease of about 3.58%. The overall capacity utilization rate of 15 enterprises with an annual production capacity of one million tons or more was 89.41%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.08% [12]. Production and Shipment - In terms of production, as of November 20, the soda ash output was about 720,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 18,500 tons. Among them, the output of light soda ash was about 324,700 tons, a decrease of 3,700 tons; the output of heavy soda ash was about 396,200 tons, a decrease of about 14,700 tons. In terms of shipment, as of November 20, the shipment volume of domestic soda ash enterprises was about 783,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.03%; the overall shipment rate of soda ash was about 108.73%, a month - on - month increase of 7.79% [15]. Demand - This week, the apparent demand for soda ash continued to improve month - on - month, and the apparent demand for light soda ash continued to rise month - on - month [17]. Glass Industry - The daily output of float glass decreased slightly month - on - month. This week, the daily output of domestic float glass was about 158,100 tons, a decrease of 0.66% from the previous period; the weekly output of float glass was about 1,110,200 tons, a decrease of 0.34%. As of November 20, the capacity utilization rate of the float glass industry was 79.03%, a decrease of 0.53% from the previous period. As of November 20, the in - production capacity of domestic photovoltaic glass was about 89,380 tons per day, unchanged from last week; the current capacity utilization rate was about 68.35%. This week, the kiln - blocking volume was relatively stable, with the actual kiln - blocking volume at about 820 tons per day [20]. - The inventory of float glass increased slightly month - on - month. As of November 20, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 63.303 million heavy boxes, an increase of 56,000 heavy boxes from the previous period, a rise of about 0.09%, equivalent to 27.7 days of inventory, an increase of 0.2 days from the previous period. The factory inventory in Hubei was about 6.14 million heavy boxes, an increase of 250,000 heavy boxes from last week. The inventory of float glass traders in Shahe decreased slightly month - on - month. As of November 20, the inventory of traders in Shahe was about 4.24 million weight boxes, a decrease of 240,000 weight boxes from last week. The factory inventory in Shahe continued to increase month - on - month. As of November 20, the factory inventory in Shahe was about 4.636 million weight boxes, an increase of 225,600 weight boxes from last week [22][26]. - In terms of float glass maintenance, the cold - repair loss increased slightly from the previous period this week. As of November 20, the national float glass loss was about 288,930 tons. In terms of profit performance, the industry profit has continued to weaken month - on - month recently. As of November 20, the weekly average profit of domestic float glass using natural gas as fuel was about - 206.84 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19.14 yuan/ton from the previous period; the weekly average profit of float glass using coal - made gas as fuel was about 26.07 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25.19 yuan/ton from last week; the weekly average profit of float glass using petroleum coke as fuel was about 8.52 yuan/ton, a decrease of 24 yuan/ton from the previous period [31]. Inventory - The inventory of the soda ash industry decreased slightly compared with the data on Monday. As of November 20, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was about 1.6444 million tons, a decrease of about 7,300 tons from Monday, a decline of about 0.44%. Among them, the inventory of light soda ash was about 757,100 tons, a decrease of 12,800 tons; the inventory of heavy soda ash was about 887,300 tons, an increase of 5,500 tons [33]. Industry Profit - The profit of the soda ash industry continued to fluctuate narrowly. As of November 20, the theoretical profit (double - ton) of domestic combined - soda process soda ash was about - 153.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 28.5 yuan/ton from the previous period; the theoretical profit of domestic ammonia - soda process soda ash was about - 38.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton from the previous period [36].

Core Viewpoint - The soda ash futures market is experiencing a downward trend, with a significant decrease in prices and a mixed outlook on supply and demand dynamics [1][2][3] Market Performance - As of November 21, 2025, the main soda ash futures contract closed at 1170 CNY/ton, with a weekly decline of 4.80% [1] - The weekly trading range saw prices open at 1224 CNY/ton, reaching a high of 1236 CNY/ton and a low of 1156 CNY/ton [1] Inventory and Supply - Domestic soda ash manufacturers reported a total inventory of 1.6444 million tons as of November 20, 2025, a decrease of 62,900 tons (3.68%) from the previous week [2] - Light soda ash inventory stood at 757,100 tons, down by 43,100 tons, while heavy soda ash inventory decreased by 19,800 tons to 887,300 tons [2] - Year-on-year, total inventory has slightly decreased by 370 tons (0.23%) compared to 1.6481 million tons last year [2] Market Sentiment and Price Trends - The top 20 futures companies held a total of 973,600 long positions and 1,229,400 short positions, resulting in a long-to-short ratio of 0.79 and a net position of -255,800 contracts, indicating a bearish sentiment [2] - In the South China region, the average price for light soda ash was 1350 CNY/ton and for heavy soda ash was 1400 CNY/ton, with similar prices reported in Northeast China [2] Institutional Insights - Zhonghui Futures noted a dual reduction in supply and demand, with high factory inventories declining and production slightly decreasing due to maintenance [3] - The demand for soda ash is being negatively impacted by falling glass prices, leading to a weak market sentiment [3] - Wukuang Futures highlighted that the soda ash market lacks clear directional guidance, with expectations of continued low-price fluctuations [3]

Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 本周玻璃观点：短线止跌 中期震荡市 | 供应 | 周内浮法玻璃产线有所变化，东北一条产线放水，无点火产线，周产量环比下降。截至20251120， 国内玻璃生产线在剔除僵尸产线后共计 | | --- | --- | | | 296条(20万吨/日），其中在产221条，冷修停产75条，截至2025年11月20日，全国浮法玻璃日产量为15.81万吨，比13日-0.66%。 | | | 截至20251117，全国深加工样本企业订单天数均值9.9天，环比-8.9%，同比-24.2%。进入11月，各大区深加工样本持有订单均值环比月初均有 | | 需求 | 下滑，订单疲软态势也导致部分加工厂出现阶段性放假现象，目前调研的深加工所持订单天数较少在2-5天居多，另有排期集中在7-15天，亦 | | | 有少数工程订单排期较长，临近年末，欠款类订单深加工签单依旧保持谨慎心态。 | | 库存 | 截止到20251120，全国浮法玻璃样本企业总库存6330.3万重箱，环比+5.6万重箱，环比+0.09%，同 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱早报 2025-11-20 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 纯碱： 1、基本面：碱厂产量高位，远兴二期年前预期投产，整体供给预期充裕；下游浮法玻璃供给扰动 预期，光伏日熔量延续下滑趋势，纯碱厂库处于历史同期高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1140元/吨，SA2601收盘价为1182元/吨，基差为-42元，期货升 水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存170.73万吨，较前一周减少0.40%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：纯碱基本面不改疲弱，短期预计震荡运行为主。SA2601：1130-1180区间操作 影响因素总结 利多： 1、下游玻璃供给低位企稳 ...

纯碱玻璃周报 研究员：李轩怡 期货从业证号：F03108920 投资咨询资格证号：Z0018403 目录 第一章 核心逻辑分析 2 第二章 周度数据追踪 10 单位：万吨 纯碱产量 纯碱联碱法开工率 单位：% 纯碱氨碱法开工率 单位：% 50.00% 55.00% 60.00% 65.00% 70.00% 75.00% 80.00% 85.00% 90.00% 95.00% 100.00% 2025 2024 2023 2022 50.00% 55.00% 60.00% 65.00% 70.00% 75.00% 80.00% 85.00% 90.00% 95.00% 100.00% 2025 2024 2023 2022 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 第53 周 第50 周 第47 周 第44 周 第41 周 第38 周 第35 周 第32 周 第29 周 第26 周 第23 周 第20 周 第17 周 第14 周 第11 周 第8周 第5周 第2周 2025年度 2024年度 2023年度 2022年度 2021年度 2020年度 GALAXY FUTURES 2 本周纯碱产量73. ...