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纸浆周报:国内港口库存转升,盘面低位运行-20260130
Guo Xin Qi Huo· 2026-01-30 08:59
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The pulp futures main contract SP2605 dropped significantly, with a weekly decline of 3.39%. The domestic pulp port inventory is still at a relatively high historical level, and it's necessary to observe the destocking situation. Paper mills have limited acceptance of high prices, and transactions are difficult to increase. The pre - holiday restocking may have limited impact on demand due to weak terminal consumption and some paper mills' early holidays. The cost side provides some support, and the pre - holiday market is expected to fluctuate at a low level, waiting for demand - side guidance [7][33] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. This Week's Market Review - The pulp futures main contract SP2605 dropped significantly, with a weekly decline of 3.39% [7] 2. Fundamental Analysis - **Pulp Market Price**: As of January 29, the weekly average price of imported softwood pulp was 5358 yuan/ton, down 0.43% from last week; the weekly average price of imported hardwood pulp was 4593 yuan/ton, down 0.93% from last week [11] - **Accumulated Pulp Imports from January to December**: In December 2025, China imported 3.113 million tons of pulp, with an import value of 1.7994 billion US dollars and an average unit price of 578.03 US dollars/ton. The accumulated import volume and value from January to December increased by 4.9% and - 2.4% respectively compared with the same period last year [15] - **Port Inventory Situation**: As of January 29, 2026, the weekly pulp inventory in major Chinese regions and ports was 2.1199 million tons, up 4.96% from last week, and the increase rate expanded by 1.59 percentage points [19] - **European Main Port Chemical Pulp Consumption and Inventory in December**: In December 2025, the consumption of European chemical pulp was 722,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.58%; the inventory was 759,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.38%. The inventory days were 28 days, up 1 day from the same period last year [22] - **SHFE Pulp Inventory**: No detailed data provided - **Downstream Pulp Variety Operating Rates**: Waste paper pulp consumption accounts for 63% of the total pulp consumption in China. As of January 29, the operating load rates of downstream paper types showed obvious differentiation. The operating rates of double - copper paper and household paper increased slightly, while those of double - offset paper and white cardboard decreased [27] 3. Future Outlook - The domestic pulp port inventory is still at a relatively high historical level, and it's necessary to observe the destocking situation. Paper mills have limited acceptance of high prices, and transactions are difficult to increase. The pre - holiday restocking may have limited impact on demand due to weak terminal consumption and some paper mills' early holidays. The cost side provides some support, and the pre - holiday market is expected to fluctuate at a low level, waiting for demand - side guidance [33]
纸浆数据日报-20260130
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2026-01-30 03:45
Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided on the report's industry investment rating. Group 2: Core Viewpoint of the Report - Recently, the concentrated registration of pulp futures warrants limits the further upward space. The price of hardwood pulp has slightly loosened, and the overall outlook is bearish [6]. Group 3: Summary Based on Related Catalogs 1. Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On January 29, 2026, SP2601 was priced at 5,584 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.47% and a weekly increase of 1.01%; SP2609 was 5,420 yuan/ton with a 0.52% daily and 0.44% weekly rise; SP2605 was 5,374 yuan/ton, up 0.60% daily and 0.26% weekly [5]. - **Spot Prices**: Coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5,380 yuan/ton, unchanged daily and down 0.37% weekly; Russian Needle was 5,200 yuan/ton, unchanged daily and down 0.95% weekly; Hardwood pulp Goldfish was 4,600 yuan/ton, unchanged daily and down 1.08% weekly [5]. - **Foreign Quotes and Import Costs**: Chilean Silver Star's foreign quote rose 2.94% to 700 dollars/ton, and its import cost increased 2.91% to 5,721 yuan/ton; Japanese West American Fish's foreign quote rose 1.89% to 540 dollars/ton, and Brazil's Huiyu's import cost increased 1.87% to 4,425 yuan/ton; Chilean Venus's foreign quote remained at 620 dollars/ton, and its import cost stayed at 5,073 yuan/ton [5]. 2. Pulp Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In December 2025, coniferous pulp imports were 77.8 tons, a 7.31% monthly increase; hardwood pulp imports were 135.2 tons, a 23.40% monthly decrease. The shipment volume to China in November 2025 was 178 thousand tons, a 3.00% increase. From January 22 - 29, 2026, hardwood pulp production was 24 tons, and chemimechanical pulp production was 23.7 tons [5]. - **Demand**: The production of finished paper decreased. Double - offset paper production was 18.70 tons; coated paper was 8.30 tons; tissue paper was 29.87 tons; and cardboard was 33.10 tons [5]. - **Inventory**: As of January 29, 2026, the sample inventory of China's major pulp ports was 216.9 tons, a 4.9% increase from the previous period, and the port sample inventory had been increasing for four consecutive weeks [5].
建信期货纸浆日报-20260130
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2026-01-30 01:19
Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Pulp Daily Report [1] - Date: January 30, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core View - The pulp market is in a wide - range volatile trend with pressure on the upside and support on the downside. Short - term pulp prices are affected by the sector and weak downstream procurement [8] Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The previous settlement price of the pulp futures 05 contract was 5,342 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 5,388 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.86%. The intended transaction price range of coniferous pulp in the Shandong wood pulp market was 4,750 - 5,650 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared with the previous trading day's closing price, with the Shandong Yinxing quotation at 5,400 yuan/ton [7] - Suzano announced a price increase of $10/ton in the Asian market in February 2026, and the foreign market quotation continued to rise. In November, the chemical pulp shipments of 20 pulp - producing countries in the world decreased by 6.9% year - on - year, coniferous pulp by 7.6% year - on - year, and broad - leaf pulp by 7.3% year - on - year, with a significant decline in shipments to the Chinese market. In December 2025, the European wood pulp inventory was 759,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.6% and a year - on - year increase of 2.4%; the European wood pulp consumption was 722,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.9% and a year - on - year increase of 0.6%. The total pulp imports in December 2025 were 3.113 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.8%. As of January 22, 2026, the weekly pulp inventory in major regions and ports was 2.0198 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.37%. On the demand side, the market purchase and sales rhythm slowed down, the raw material stocking intention of downstream paper enterprises decreased, the pre - holiday restocking was gradually ending, and the support from the demand side of the pulp market weakened [8] Group 5: Industry News - On January 27, Nantong Data Bureau released an environmental assessment acceptance notice. The 2 - million - ton natural cellulose project of Golden Hongye Paper (Nantong) Co., Ltd.'s APP Rudong Base was officially announced. The total investment of the project is about 16.395 billion yuan, with a construction period of 36 months. It mainly serves the Rudong Base's household paper - making and the planned Phase IV project, with 1.6 million tons to be supplied as wood pulp for the existing in - plant Phase I and Phase II household paper projects. The project uses the chemical sulfate pulping process [9] - On January 28, Leshan Shawan District People's Government website announced that Sichuan Fuhua Yuantai Bamboo Fiber Co., Ltd. plans to build a bamboo - based fiber and specialty paper project. The project is located in the papermaking and paper products industrial park of Hulu Group, Sichuan Shawan Economic Development Zone. The main construction contents and scale include: a single - line annual production line of 300,000 tons of bleached chemical bamboo pulp (bamboo - based fiber), a supporting annual production line of 400,000 tons of specialty paper, specifically including 150,000 tons/year of food and medical packaging paper, 150,000 tons/year of wiping paper, 100,000 tons/year of bamboo - based fiber materials (fluff pulp), and supporting public works and environmental protection facilities [9] Group 6: Data Overview - Multiple data charts are provided, including import bleached softwood pulp spot price in Shandong, pulp futures price, pulp spot - futures price difference, needle - broadleaf price difference, inter - period price difference, warehouse receipt volume, domestic main port pulp inventory, European main port wood pulp inventory, copperplate paper and offset paper price and price difference, white cardboard and whiteboard paper price and price difference, and US dollar to RMB exchange rate [15][17][19][23][25][27]
纸浆数据日报-20260128
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2026-01-28 03:17
| 2026年1月27日 | | | 日环比 | 周环比 | | | 2026年1月27日 | 日环比 | 周环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SP2601 | 期货价格 | 5558 | -0.22% | 0. 14% | 现货价格 | 针叶浆银星 | 5380 | -0. 37% | -1.28% | | SP2609 | (元/吨) | 5392 | -0. 63% | -0. 33% | (元/吨) | 针叶浆俄针 | 5200 | -0. 95% | -0. 95% | | SP2605 | | 5342 | -0. 60% | -0. 63% | | 阔叶浆金鱼 | 4600 | -1.08% | -1.08% | | 本期价格 | | | 上期价格 | 月环比 | | | 本期价格 | 上期价格 | 月环比 | | 智利银星 | 外盘报价 | 700 | 680 | 2.94% | 进口成本 | 智利银星 | 5721 | 5559 | 2.91% | | 巴西金鱼 | (美元/吨) | 54 ...
建信期货纸浆日报-20260127
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2026-01-27 01:46
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Pulp futures are experiencing a short - term correction due to sector influence and weakening downstream procurement. The overall trend is a wide - range oscillation with both upward pressure and downward support [8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operational Suggestions - The previous settlement price of the Pulp Futures 05 contract was 5400 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 5374 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.48%. The intended transaction price range of coniferous pulp in the Shandong wood pulp market was 4750 - 5650 yuan/ton, with the price remaining stable compared to the previous trading day's closing price, and the Shandong Yinxing quotation was 5400 yuan/ton [7] - In January, Arauco's foreign pulp offers: coniferous pulp Yinxing increased by 10 US dollars/ton to 710 US dollars/ton; natural pulp Jinxing remained flat at 620 US dollars/ton; broad - leaf pulp Mingxing increased by 20 US dollars/ton to 590 US dollars/ton [8] - According to PPPC, in November, the chemical pulp shipments of 20 pulp - producing countries in the world decreased by 6.9% year - on - year, coniferous pulp decreased by 7.6% year - on - year, and broad - leaf pulp decreased by 7.3% year - on - year, with a significant decline in shipments to the Chinese market [8] - According to UTIPULP data, in December 2025, the European wood pulp inventory was 759,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.6% and a year - on - year increase of 2.4%; the European wood pulp consumption was 722,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.9% and a year - on - year increase of 0.6% [8] - In December 2025, the total pulp import volume was 3.113 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.8%. As of January 22, 2026, the weekly pulp inventory in major regions and ports was 2.0198 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.37% [8] - On the demand side, the market purchase and sales rhythm has slowed down, the raw material stocking intention of downstream paper enterprises has decreased, the pre - holiday replenishment is gradually ending, and the support from the demand side of the pulp market has weakened [8] 3.2 Industry News - On January 22, Guangxi proposed the development goal for the pulp and paper industry in 2030: the output of paper and paperboard will reach 27 million tons. The "Implementation Opinions on Accelerating the High - quality Development of Forest Product Processing and the Paper Industry" put forward the goal of "strengthening the pulp and paper industry", including giving priority to the development of high - yield pulp types such as chemical wood pulp and mechanical wood pulp, vigorously developing products such as packaging paper, tissue paper, cultural paper, specialty paper, and pulp molding, and building a number of key projects such as forest - pulp - paper integration and high - value - added specialty paper. By 2030, the output value of the paper industry in the region will reach 180 billion yuan, the output of machine - made paper and paperboard will reach 27 million tons, and 4 enterprises with an output value of over 20 billion yuan and 5 enterprises with an output value of over 10 billion yuan will be cultivated [9] 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including import bleached coniferous pulp spot prices in Shandong, pulp futures prices, pulp spot - futures price differences, needle - broadleaf price differences, warehouse receipt totals, domestic main port pulp inventories, European main port wood pulp inventories, prices and price differences of coated paper and offset paper, prices and price differences of white cardboard and whiteboard paper, and the US dollar - RMB exchange rate [15][17][26][27][31]
纸浆月报:高价难见放量,观察需求恢复情况-20260125
Guo Xin Qi Huo· 2026-01-24 23:37
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pulp market is currently affected by both supply - and demand - side factors. The market anticipates a tightening of coniferous pulp supply in 2026, while downstream paper mills are focused on cost - reduction and efficiency - improvement, with limited enthusiasm for high - price pulp purchases. Attention should be paid to the demand stabilization and port inventory digestion. After demand stabilizes, a bullish approach can be considered [2][31] 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 Market Review - In January 2026, the main pulp futures contract SP2605 rebounded and then fell sharply. The market had already priced in the expected tightening of coniferous pulp supply, but weak downstream demand limited the follow - up increase in actual orders. Currently, the strong performance of the sector has led to a slight rebound in pulp futures [7] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 December Import Volume Increased Month - on - Month, but 2026 Pulp Import Expected to Tighten - China has a high external dependence on pulp, especially for bleached softwood pulp. In December 2025, China imported 3113000 tons of pulp, with an average unit price of $578.03/ton. The coniferous pulp import volume in December was 895900 tons, up 9.27% month - on - month and 11.51% year - on - year. From January to December, the cumulative pulp import volume and amount increased by 4.9% and - 2.4% respectively compared to the previous year. Due to geopolitical factors, imports from North America decreased, but those from Brazil, Chile, Finland, and Uruguay increased. However, large pulp mills are shutting down or reducing capacity, and the coniferous pulp supply in 2026 is expected to tighten significantly [12][13] 3.2.2 European Port Inventory Declined, Overseas Demand May Gradually Recover - In November 2025, the total European port inventory decreased by 1.07% month - on - month and 2.75% year - on - year. The European wood pulp port inventory has been declining since September, indicating that the off - season for papermaking demand in Europe and the US has passed. With the Fed in a rate - cut cycle, overseas wood pulp demand may slowly recover. Against the backdrop of the European papermaking industry's merger wave, pulp export quotes are firm. Some large pulp mills will reduce broad - leaf pulp production in 2026, and due to the shortage of wood chips, the price of bleached broad - leaf wood pulp in Asia has been raised [17] 3.2.3 European Inventory Declined, Export Quotes Continued to Rise - Since August, the import price of broad - leaf pulp has rebounded. In January, the export quotes of some pulp products increased. Due to high import dependence, the import cost strongly supports domestic prices. However, the downstream finished paper price has difficulty following the increase, and the spot market price of imported wood pulp is weak. As of January 22, 2026, the weekly average price of imported coniferous pulp was 5381 yuan/ton, down 3.08% week - on - week, and that of imported broad - leaf pulp was 4636 yuan/ton, down 1.00% week - on - week [20][21] 3.2.4 Cost Increase Further Suppressed the Profits of Downstream Base Paper Enterprises - The rising prices of imported coniferous and broad - leaf pulp have increased the production costs of downstream paper enterprises, but the increase in base paper prices is weak, squeezing corporate profits and suppressing the purchasing willingness for high - price raw materials. As of January 22, 2026, the gross profit margin of Silver Star pulp was below the break - even point. The operating rates of different paper types showed different trends, and overall, downstream paper mills were focused on cost - reduction and efficiency - improvement [24][25] 3.2.5 The Inventory of Major Domestic Ports Increased and Remained at a High Level - As of January 22, 2026, the total pulp inventory in several major ports was 2019800 tons, up 3.37% week - on - week. Generally, the inventory increases during the Chinese New Year due to reduced purchasing demand. However, the postponed Chinese New Year in 2026 may lead to a moderate recovery in domestic demand, and attention should be paid to inventory digestion [28] 3.3 Future Outlook - On the supply side, the 2025 import data shows an increase in volume but a decrease in amount compared to the previous year. In 2026, the coniferous pulp supply is expected to tighten. On the demand side, the operating rates of different paper types vary, and downstream paper mills are focused on cost - reduction. The market has priced in the supply - tightening expectation, but weak demand has limited the price increase. The domestic port inventory is high, and the postponed Chinese New Year may lead to a moderate demand recovery. Attention should be paid to demand stabilization and inventory digestion, and a bullish approach can be considered after demand stabilizes [30][31]
纸浆数据日报-20260122
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2026-01-22 03:09
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - The pulp market shows a trend of inventory accumulation this cycle. The inventory in Qingdao Port, a major domestic pulp port, has a narrow - range increase, and the daily average shipping speed has increased compared to the previous cycle. The pulp futures have limited room for further increase, and the price of broad - leaf pulp has slightly declined. It is advisable to consider short - selling after a rebound [5][6] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On January 21, 2026, SP2601 was 5528 yuan/ton, down 0.40% day - on - day and up 1.06% week - on - week; SP2609 was 5396 yuan/ton, down 0.26% day - on - day and down 2.60% week - on - week; SP2605 was 5360 yuan/ton, down 0.30% day - on - day and down 2.44% week - on - week [5] - **Spot Prices**: Coniferous pulp silver star was 5600 yuan/ton, up 3.70% day - on - day and up 0.90% week - on - week; coniferous pulp Russian needle was 5250 yuan/ton, unchanged day - on - day and down 1.87% week - on - week; broad - leaf pulp goldfish was 4650 yuan/ton, down 1.06% day - on - day and down 1.69% week - on - week [5] - **Outer - disk Quotes**: Chilean silver star was 700 dollars/ton, up 2.94% month - on - month; US dollar was 540 dollars/ton, up 1.89% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 620 dollars/ton, unchanged month - on - month [5] - **Import Costs**: The import cost of Chilean silver star was 5721 yuan/ton, up 2.91% month - on - month; Brazilian goldfish was 4425 yuan/ton, up 1.87% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 5073 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month [5] 3.2 Supply Data - **Import Volume**: In December 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 77.8 tons, up 7.31% month - on - month; the import volume of broad - leaf pulp was 135.2 tons, down 23.40% month - on - month [5] - **Domestic Production**: As of January 15, 2026, the domestic production of broad - leaf pulp was 25.2 tons; the domestic production of chemical mechanical pulp was 23.7 tons [5] - **Supply News**: Chile's Arauco company's January coniferous pulp offer was 710 dollars/ton, up 10 dollars/ton; broad - leaf pulp star offer was 590 dollars/ton, up 20 dollars/ton; natural pulp Venus offer was 620 dollars/ton, unchanged [5] 3.3 Inventory Data - **Pulp Port Inventory**: As of January 15, 2026, the inventory of China's main pulp ports was 201.4 tons, up 0.3% month - on - month [5] - **Futures Delivery Warehouse Inventory**: As of January 15, 2026, the inventory of the futures delivery warehouse was 14.9 tons [5] 3.4 Demand Data - **Finished Paper Production**: The production of offset paper was 20.30 tons; the production of coated paper was 8.30 tons; the production of tissue paper was 29.30 tons; the production of white cardboard was 38.40 tons [5] - **Demand Situation**: The demand side of pulp has been stable recently. The price of tissue paper has increased slightly, and the prices of other paper products are stable. The production of major wood - pulp paper is stable [5] 3.5 Strategy - Due to the recent concentrated registration of pulp futures warehouse receipts and limited upward space, combined with the slight decline in broad - leaf pulp prices, it is recommended to consider short - selling after a rebound [6]
纸浆数据日报-20260121
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2026-01-21 07:03
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core View - The paper pulp market continues to show an inventory accumulation trend this cycle. The inventory of the mainstream domestic paper pulp port, Qingdao Port, shows a narrow - range inventory accumulation trend, and the daily average shipment speed in the port has increased compared with the previous cycle. Recently, the concentrated registration of paper pulp futures warrants limits the further upward space, and the price of broad - leaf pulp has slightly loosened. It is advisable to consider short - selling after a rebound [5][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Data - Futures prices: On January 20, 2026, SP2601 was 5550 yuan/ton, up 0.25% day - on - day and 2.36% week - on - week; SP2609 was 5410 yuan/ton, up 0.19% day - on - day and down 2.35% week - on - week; SP2605 was 5376 yuan/ton, up 0.26% day - on - day and down 2.11% week - on - week [5]. - Spot prices: Coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5600 yuan/ton, up 2.75% day - on - day and 0.90% week - on - week; Coniferous pulp Russian Needle was 5250 yuan/ton, with no day - on - day change and down 1.87% week - on - week; Broad - leaf pulp Goldfish was 4650 yuan/ton, down 1.06% day - on - day and 2.11% week - on - week [5]. - Outer - disk quotes: Chilean Silver Star was 700 dollars/ton, up 2.94% month - on - month; Brazilian Goldfish was 540 dollars/ton, up 1.89% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 620 dollars/ton, with no month - on - month change [5]. - Import costs: Chilean Silver Star was 5721 yuan/ton, up 2.91% month - on - month; Brazilian Goldfish was 4425 yuan/ton, up 1.87% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 5073 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change [5]. Supply Data - Import volume: In December 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 77.8 tons, up 7.31% month - on - month; the import volume of broad - leaf pulp was 135.2 tons, down 23.40% month - on - month [5]. - Domestic output: As of January 15, 2026, the domestic output of broad - leaf pulp was 25.2 tons, and the domestic output of chemimechanical pulp was 23.7 tons [5]. - Supply - side news: Chile's Arauco Company's January coniferous pulp offer was 710 dollars/ton, up 10 dollars/ton; broad - leaf pulp Star was quoted at 590 dollars/ton, up 20 dollars/ton; unbleached pulp Venus was quoted at 620 dollars/ton, unchanged [5]. Inventory Data - Paper pulp port inventory: As of January 15, 2026, the inventory of mainstream Chinese paper pulp ports was 201.4 tons, up 0.7 tons from the previous period, a 0.3% month - on - month increase [5]. - Futures delivery warehouse inventory: As of January 15, 2026, the inventory was 14.9 tons [5]. Demand Data - Finished paper output: On January 15, 2026, the output of offset paper was 20.30 tons, coated paper was 8.30 tons, tissue paper was 29.30 tons, and white cardboard was 38.40 tons [5]. - Demand - side situation: The demand side of paper pulp has been stable recently. The price of tissue paper has increased slightly, while the prices of other paper products have been stable. The output of major wood - pulp paper products has been stable [5].
国泰君安期货:纸浆:震荡偏弱
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2026-01-21 02:15
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of pulp is -1, indicating a "weakly bearish" outlook. The rating scale ranges from -2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [3]. 2. Core Viewpoints - The pulp market is expected to be in a weakly bearish trend. The current market has a bearish fundamental pattern due to high domestic inventories and weak demand. The downstream paper industry has limited order releases and maintains only刚需 purchases, which drags down the raw material pulp market. Attention should be paid to the demand sentiment changes in the broadleaf pulp market, the impact of the futures market on the spot market, and whether there will be a small - scale restocking demand before the Spring Festival [4]. - The price of the household paper market fluctuates within a certain range, with little change in overall trading activity. The cost - side support of raw material pulp for household paper is weak, and the terminal demand is tepid. Paper mills are facing shipment pressure, and the de - stocking process has slowed down. In the current supply - demand game, attention should be paid to changes in raw material pulp prices and paper mill shipment conditions [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Price and Volume Changes**: The daily closing price of the pulp main contract was 5,376 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan from the previous day; the night - session closing price was 5,352 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan. The trading volume was 190,404 lots, an increase of 3,735 lots, and the open interest was 253,759 lots, an increase of 4,461 lots. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 30 tons to 139,554 tons, and the net position of the top 20 members decreased by 1,459 lots to - 18,534 lots [3]. 3.2 Spread Data - **Basis and Month - to - Month Spread**: The basis of "Silver Star - Futures Main Contract" decreased by 14 to 74, and the basis of "Goldfish - Futures Main Contract (Non - Standard)" decreased by 14 to - 726. The month - to - month spread of "SP03 - SP05" remained unchanged at - 34 [3]. 3.3 Spot Market - **Coniferous Pulp**: The domestic prices of coniferous pulp brands such as Northwood, Cariboo, Lion Brand, Moon, Silver Star, and Russian Needle are 5,700 yuan/ton, 5,650 yuan/ton, 5,600 yuan/ton, 5,400 yuan/ton, 5,450 yuan/ton, and 5,250 yuan/ton respectively. The international price of Silver Star is 710 US dollars/ton [3]. - **Broadleaf Pulp**: The domestic prices of broadleaf pulp brands such as Goldfish, Star, Tai, and Brazilian Broadleaf are 4,650 yuan/ton, 4,650 yuan/ton, 4,650 yuan/ton, and 4,550 yuan/ton respectively. The international price of Star is 590 US dollars/ton [3]. - **Chemimechanical Pulp and Unbleached Pulp**: The domestic price of Chemimechanical Pulp (Kunhe) is 3,800 yuan/ton, and the domestic price of Unbleached Pulp (Venus) is 5,000 yuan/ton, with an international price of 620 US dollars/ton [3].
纸浆数据日报-20260120
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2026-01-20 03:11
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The pulp market continues to show a trend of inventory accumulation. In the current cycle, the inventory at Qingdao Port, a major domestic pulp port, has seen a narrow - range increase, with the daily average shipping speed in the port increasing compared to the previous cycle. - Recently, there has been concentrated registration of pulp futures warehouse receipts, limiting the further upside potential. The price of hardwood pulp has slightly weakened. It is advisable to consider short - selling after a rebound [5][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On January 19, 2026, SP2601 was 5231 yuan/ton, down 0.11% day - on - day but up 2.18% week - on - week; SP2609 was 5400 yuan/ton, unchanged day - on - day and down 2.46% week - on - week; SP2605 was 5362 yuan/ton, unchanged day - on - day and down 2.33% week - on - week [5]. - **Spot Prices**: The price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5600 yuan/ton, up 2.75% day - on - day and 0.90% week - on - week; Russian coniferous pulp was 5250 yuan/ton, unchanged day - on - day and down 1.87% week - on - week; hardwood pulp Goldfish was 4650 yuan/ton, down 1.69% day - on - day and 2.11% week - on - week [5]. - **Outer - disk Quotes**: The outer - disk quote for Chilean Silver Star was 700 dollars/ton, up 2.94% month - on - month; Japanese return was 540 dollars/ton, up 1.89% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 620 dollars/ton, unchanged month - on - month [5]. - **Import Costs**: The import cost of Chilean Silver Star was 5721 yuan/ton, up 2.91% month - on - month; Brazilian Goldfish was 4425 yuan/ton, up 1.87% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 5073 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month [5]. Pulp Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In November 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 72.5 tons, up 4.92% month - on - month; the import volume of hardwood pulp was 176.5 tons, up 33.92% month - on - month. The pulp shipment volume to China in November 2025 was 178 thousand tons, up 3.00% month - on - month. In terms of domestic production, the production volume of hardwood pulp on January 15, 2026, was 25.2 tons; the production volume of chemimechanical pulp was 23.7 tons [5]. - **Inventory**: As of January 15, 2026, the pulp port inventory was 201.4 tons, up 0.7 tons from the previous period and 0.3% month - on - month. The futures delivery warehouse inventory was 14.9 tons [5]. - **Demand**: The production volume of double - offset paper was 20.30 tons; copperplate paper was 8.30 tons; tissue paper was 29.30 tons; white cardboard was 38.40 tons [5]. Market Situation - **Supply - side**: Chile's Arauco Company's January offer for coniferous pulp was 710 dollars/ton, up 10 dollars/ton; the offer for hardwood pulp Star was 590 dollars/ton, up 20 dollars/ton; the offer for natural pulp Venus was 620 dollars/ton, unchanged [5]. - **Demand - side**: The demand for pulp has been stable recently. The price of tissue paper has risen slightly, while the prices of other paper products have remained stable. The production volume of major wood - pulp paper products has been stable [5]. - **Inventory - side**: As of January 15, 2026, the inventory of major pulp ports in China was 201.4 tons, with a 0.7 - ton increase from the previous period and a 0.3% month - on - month increase [5].