Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Paper pulp futures are mainly influenced by macro - sentiment and will fluctuate widely. The supply - demand fundamentals remain in a stalemate, with high port inventory pressure, abundant supply of circulating goods, limited improvement in downstream demand, and low operating rates. It is expected that the price of the pulp 2509 contract will fluctuate widely in the range of 5260 - 5590 this week [4]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Pulp Price Analysis - **Spot Pulp Price Review**: Coniferous pulp prices remained relatively stable, while broad - leaf pulp prices rose slightly. Among them, the price of broad - leaf pulp such as Jin Yu, Xiao Niao, and A Er Pai increased, with increases ranging from 1.22% to 1.74%. Coniferous pulp prices such as Yin Xing, Kai Li Pu, and Bei Mu remained unchanged. Chemical mechanical pulp and bleached kraft pulp prices remained stable, while reed pulp prices dropped significantly by 15.22% [11][14]. - **Pulp Futures Review**: The pulp futures contract SP2509 continued to oscillate upwards last week, closing at 5520 yuan/ton, up 4.31% for the week. The weighted trading volume was 1.936 million lots, an increase of 689,000 lots, and the weighted open interest was 305,000 lots, an increase of 28,000 lots [15]. - **Pulp Futures - Spot Basis Comparison**: The basis discount of softwood pulp and the closing price of the futures main contract was 400 yuan/ton, and the discount decreased by 228 yuan/ton compared with last week [19]. - **Log Futures Review**: The main log futures contract 2509 showed a trend of rising first and then falling last week, closing at 830 yuan/cubic meter, up 0.18% for the week. The weighted trading volume was 164,000 lots, a decrease of 23,900 lots, and the weighted open interest was 31,500 lots, a decrease of 9900 lots [20]. 2. Pulp Supply - Side Analysis - **Weekly Pulp Production**: Last week, pulp production was 482,000 tons, a decrease of 1.83% from the previous week. Among them, broad - leaf pulp production was 205,000 tons, and chemical mechanical pulp production was 210,000 tons, both showing a decline [22]. - **Capacity Utilization of Broad - Leaf Pulp and Chemical Mechanical Pulp**: Last week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic broad - leaf pulp was 75.8%, a decrease of 1.7% from the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate of chemical mechanical pulp was 88.1%, a decrease of 1.8% from the previous week [27]. - **Monthly Pulp Production**: In June 2025, domestic pulp production was 2.072 million tons, a decrease of 3.36% from the previous month. Among them, wood pulp production was 1.746 million tons, a decrease of 7.69%, and non - wood pulp production was 326,000 tons, a decrease of 2.69% [28]. - **Monthly Capacity Utilization**: In June 2025, the capacity utilization rate of chemical mechanical pulp was 85.0%, an increase of 0.8% from the previous month, and the capacity utilization rate of broad - leaf pulp was 80.6%, a decrease of 1.1% from the previous month [32]. - **Monthly Production Profit**: In June 2025, the production profit of broad - leaf pulp was 493.6 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25.31% from the previous month, and the production profit of chemical mechanical pulp was - 376.9 yuan/ton, a reduction in losses of 41.1 yuan/ton [36]. - **Pulp Imports**: In June 2025, pulp imports were 3.0306 million tons, an increase of 0.48% from the previous month and 16.12% from the same period last year. The cumulative imports from January to June were 18.5777 million tons, an increase of 4.2% from the same period last year [37]. 3. Pulp Demand - Side Analysis - **Downstream Tissue Paper Market**: Last week, domestic tissue paper production was 279,000 tons, a slight increase of 0.07% from the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate was 63.2%, an increase of 0.1% from the previous week [39]. - **Downstream Cultural Paper Market**: Last week, the production of coated paper was 79,000 tons, an increase of 1.28% from the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate was 58.0%, an increase of 0.4% from the previous week. The production of offset paper was 196,000 tons, a decrease of 2.0% from the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate was 55.1%, a decrease of 1.1% from the previous week [43]. - **Downstream Packaging Paper Market**: Last week, the production of white cardboard was 311,000 tons, a decrease of 0.32% from the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate was 75.85%, a decrease of 0.25% from the previous week. The production of corrugated paper was 462,300 tons, a decrease of 1.64% from the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate was 61.97%, a decrease of 1.04% from the previous week. The production of containerboard was 594,000 tons, a decrease of 1.02% from the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate was 65.6%, a decrease of 0.66% from the previous week [46][49]. - **Downstream Base Paper Spot Price Analysis**: Last week, the prices of tissue paper and cultural paper remained basically stable, the price of white cardboard decreased slightly, and the prices of whiteboard paper, corrugated paper, and containerboard remained stable [50][54][56]. - **Downstream Base Paper Capacity Utilization**: In June 2025, the capacity utilization rate of tissue paper decreased by 1.5% from the previous month, the capacity utilization rate of white cardboard increased by 2.58% from the previous month, the capacity utilization rate of offset paper increased slightly, and the capacity utilization rate of coated paper decreased slightly. The actual domestic pulp consumption decreased slightly [60][64][67]. 4. Pulp Inventory - Side Analysis - **Pulp Port Inventory**: Currently, the overall port inventory is in a destocking trend, with a total inventory of 2.143 million tons in mainstream ports, a decrease of 1.74% from the previous week. Among them, the inventory in Qingdao Port increased by 0.96%, the inventory in Changshu Port decreased by 5.26%, and the inventory in Tianjin Port increased by 5.36% [70][73]. - **Futures Pulp Warehouse Receipts**: Currently, pulp futures warehouse receipts are 243,600 tons, an increase of 1.43% from the previous week. The total warehouse receipts in Shandong area are 224,500 tons, an increase of 1.8% from the previous week [74].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is to wait and see, and the trading strategy for the single - side is to wait and see [3] Group 2: Core View of the Report - Last week, the rise of pulp was mainly due to the macro - sentiment driving the repair of futures valuation, while the spot fundamentals of pulp remained weak. This week, macro - risk fluctuations have intensified, so it is recommended to stay on the sidelines with an empty position [6] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: It is bearish. In late May, the inventory of 20 major global commodity pulp suppliers was 49 days. The inventory days of bleached softwood pulp increased by 5 days to 46 days, and that of bleached hardwood pulp increased by 4 days to 51 days. In May 2025, the shipments of broad - leaf pulp from three South American countries to China and the shipments of coniferous pulp from Canada increased, and the overall supply increased. The current quotes for coniferous pulp in North America/Northern Europe are $680 - 710 per ton, and the import quote for broad - leaf pulp is $500 per ton [3] - **Demand**: It is bearish. This week, the production of major finished paper products remained basically stable. The rise in pulp prices did not arouse the restocking sentiment of paper mills, and pulp prices still declined [3] - **Inventory**: It is neutral. As of July 24, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 214.3 tons, a decrease of 3.8 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 1.7% [3] - **Trading Profit**: It is neutral. The ex - works price in June decreased compared with May, and the import profit of coniferous and broad - leaf pulp was repaired, with the import profit of coniferous pulp in a positive position. As of July 25, the import profit of coniferous pulp was 59.35 yuan per ton [3] - **Valuation**: It is bearish. This week, under the influence of macro - bullish factors, the futures price of pulp rose significantly, and the basis of broad - leaf pulp weakened to around - 1300~ - 1400 yuan per ton [3] 3.2 Review of Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures and Spot Price Trends**: Last week, the rise of pulp was due to macro - sentiment driving the repair of futures valuation, and the spot fundamentals were weak. This week, macro - risk fluctuations intensified. Pulp spot prices rebounded slightly. The price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5920 yuan per ton, up 20 yuan per ton week - on - week and down 30 yuan per ton month - on - month. The price of coniferous pulp Buzhen was 5500 yuan per ton, up 300 yuan per ton week - on - week and up 380 yuan per ton month - on - month. The price of broad - leaf pulp Jinyu was 4150 yuan per ton, up 100 yuan per ton week - on - week and up 100 yuan per ton month - on - month [6][15] - **Foreign Quotes**: In May, the foreign quotes for coniferous pulp decreased significantly, and the price of broad - leaf pulp declined. In July, the price of broad - leaf pulp from Chile Arauco was $500 per ton net, and the offer for unbleached pulp Venus was $590 per ton [16][19] - **Futures Position Volume**: As of July 25, 2025, the total position volume of pulp futures contracts was 305,363 lots, a 10.1% increase from last week; the position volume of the main pulp futures contract was 147,585 lots, a 1.30% increase from last week [20] 3.3 Pulp Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - **Import Volume**: In June, the import volume of pulp increased. The total import volume of pulp was 3.016 million tons, a 4.25% increase. The import volume of coniferous pulp was 722,000 tons, a 4.75% decrease, and the import volume of broad - leaf pulp was 1.293 million tons, a 7.84% increase [4] - **Shipment Volume**: In May 2025, the pulp shipment volume was 4.125 million tons, a 1.9% month - on - month increase. Among them, the shipment volume of coniferous pulp was 1.68 million tons, a 4.4% month - on - month increase, and the shipment volume of broad - leaf pulp was 2.53 million tons, a 1.2% month - on - month increase [38] - **Inventory**: Port and futures inventories increased. Overseas/European pulp mill inventories also increased. In late May, the inventory of 20 major global commodity pulp suppliers was 49 days. The inventory days of bleached softwood pulp increased by 5 days to 46 days, and that of bleached hardwood pulp increased by 4 days to 51 days. In May 2025, the month - end inventory of European port pulp increased by 13.3% month - on - month and 22.0% year - on - year, rising from 1.352 million tons at the end of April to 1.531 million tons [39][45] - **Downstream Demand**: - **Price**: As of July 25, 2025, the price of offset paper was 5012 yuan per ton, a 2.2% month - on - month decrease; the price of coated paper was 5340 yuan per ton, a 1.1% month - on - month decrease; the price of tissue paper was 5600 yuan per ton, a 1.2% month - on - month decrease; the price of white cardboard was 4010 yuan per ton, a 1.5% month - on - month decrease [49] - **Production**: In June 2025, the production of offset paper was 688,000 tons, a 6% month - on - month increase and a 16% year - on - year decrease; the production of coated paper was 366,200 tons, a 0.67% month - on - month decrease and a 2.4% year - on - year increase; the production of tissue paper increased by 2% month - on - month and 11.2% year - on - year; the production of white cardboard increased by 2% month - on - month and 10.6% year - on - year [55] - **Inventory**: As of June 2025, the inventory of offset paper was 1.83 million tons, a 1.6% month - on - month increase and a 13.3% year - on - year increase; the inventory of coated paper was 1.23 million tons, a 1.6% month - on - month increase and a 2.7% year - on - year increase; the inventory of tissue paper was 400,000 tons, a 3.1% month - on - month increase and a 16.9% year - on - year increase; the inventory of white cardboard was 2.1914 million tons, a 2.5% month - on - month increase and an 8.2% year - on - year decrease [62] - **European and American Demand**: In June 2025, the available inventory days of European coniferous pulp were 28.5, a 0.81 increase month - on - month and a 4.47 increase year - on - year; the available inventory days of broad - leaf pulp were 26.7, a 3.94 increase month - on - month and a 5.04 increase year - on - year. As of June 2025, the capacity utilization rate of US paper products was 81.97%, a 0.14% month - on - month decrease. In May 2025, the inventory - to - sales ratio of paper products was 1.05, a 0.01 increase month - on - month and a 0.06 increase year - on - year [68] 3.4 Pulp Futures Valuation - **Price Difference**: As of July 25, 2025, the basis of Shandong Buzhen was - 20 yuan per ton, a 74 - yuan per - ton increase from last week; the basis of Shandong Silver Star was 400 yuan per ton, a 208 - yuan per - ton decrease from last week. The 9 - 1 month spread of pulp was - 52 yuan per ton, a 113 - yuan per - ton increase from last week [75] - **Import Profit**: As of July 25, 2025, the import profit of coniferous pulp was 59 yuan per ton, a 9 - yuan per - ton increase from last week; the import profit of broad - leaf pulp was 64 yuan per ton, a 55 - yuan per - ton increase from last week [78] - **Coniferous - Broad Leaf Price Difference**: As of July 25, 2025, the coniferous - broad leaf price difference in Shandong, China was 1660 yuan per ton, a 217.5 - yuan per - ton decrease from last week. In June 2024, the coniferous - broad leaf import ratio in China was 0.47, a 0.09 decrease from last month [80]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pulp market sentiment has improved, with the pulp futures rebounding from a low level in July 2025. However, the pulp market supply is relatively loose, with high port inventories and a slow de - stocking pace. The subsequent rebound height depends on demand stabilization and macro - economic conditions. It is recommended to take a light - position trial long position [2][5][24] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - In July 2025, pulp futures rebounded from a low level. The pulp market followed the upward trend of the commodity sector, but due to high port inventories, slow de - stocking, low downstream purchasing enthusiasm, and cost support, the market was in a dynamic game [5] 3.2 Pulp Fundamental Analysis - **Import Volume Increase with Slowing Speed**: Global pulp production is stable at around 180 million tons. China has a high degree of dependence on pulp imports. In June 2025, China imported 3.031 million tons of pulp, with an import value of $1.9079 billion and an average unit price of $629.46 per ton. From January to June, the cumulative import volume and value increased by 4.2% and 2.3% respectively compared to the same period last year. The import volume maintained an increasing trend, but the growth rate slowed down [9][10] - **Inventory Pressure in Major Domestic Ports**: As of July 23, 2025, the total weekly inventory of pulp in major domestic ports was 2.1266 million tons, a 3.49% decrease from the previous week, still at a high level in the same period of previous years. In May 2025, European port inventories increased, and in June, European chemical pulp consumption decreased while inventories increased. Coniferous pulp has less inventory pressure, while broad - leaf pulp has more supply and inventory pressure [12][13] - **Diverse Downstream Operating Conditions**: Global pulp apparent consumption is stable at around 180 million tons. Waste pulp is the main consumption method in China, accounting for 63% of total pulp consumption. As of July 24, the operating rates of different types of paper mills varied, with most paper mills operating stably and a few reducing production [15][18] - **Rising Prices of Coniferous and Broad - Leaf Pulp in the Domestic Market**: As of July 24, the weekly average price of imported coniferous pulp was 5,866 yuan per ton, a 0.53% increase from the previous week, and the weekly average price of imported broad - leaf pulp was 4,111 yuan per ton, a 0.76% increase from the previous week. Although the price of imported broad - leaf pulp increased, downstream purchasing enthusiasm was low, and high - price transactions did not increase significantly [20] 3.3 Outlook for the Future - On the supply side, in June 2025, China's pulp import volume and value increased compared to the same period last year. On the demand side, port inventories were high, and the de - stocking pace was slow. The pulp market supply was relatively loose, and high - price transactions were limited. The subsequent rebound height depends on demand stabilization and macro - economic conditions, and it is recommended to take a light - position trial long position [23][24]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Pulp futures are expected to rise under the influence of macro - positive factors and low valuation [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On July 22, 2025, SP2601 was 5502, up 0.40% day - on - day and 1.63% week - on - week; SP2605 was 5440, down 0.40% day - on - day and 1.80% week - on - week; SP2509 was 5368, up 0.64% day - on - day and 2.01% week - on - week [1] - **Spot Prices**: Coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5920, unchanged day - on - day and week - on - week; Russian Needle was 5300, unchanged; Broadleaf pulp Goldfish was 4100, unchanged day - on - day and up 1.23% week - on - week [1] - **Outer - disk Quotes**: Chilean Silver Star's outer - disk quote was 740 dollars, down 2.70% month - on - month; Chilean Star was 560 dollars, down 10.71% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 620 dollars, unchanged [1] - **Import Costs**: Chilean Silver Star's import cost was 5884, down 2.68% month - on - month; Chilean Star was 4101, down 10.60% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 5073, unchanged [1] Pulp Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In June 2025, coniferous pulp imports were 67.8 tons, down 6.09% month - on - month compared to May. The shipment volume of pulp to China in May was 140 tons, up 3.30% month - on - month compared to April. Domestic production of broadleaf pulp and chemimechanical pulp also had certain changes [1] - **Inventory**: As of July 17, 2025, the sample inventory of China's mainstream pulp ports was 218.1 tons, up 0.2 tons from the previous period, a 0.1% increase, showing a slight inventory accumulation trend [4] - **Demand**: This week, the output of major finished paper increased slightly, but the prices of finished paper remained low, providing weak support for pulp [3] Pulp Valuation Data - **Basis**: On July 22, 2025, the Russian Needle basis was - 68, with a quantile level of 0.47; the Silver Star basis was 552, with a quantile level of 0.867 [3] - **Import Profit**: The import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 50, with a quantile level of 0.685; the quantile level of broadleaf pulp Goldfish was 0.627 [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Pulp futures rose slightly against the backdrop of macro - positive factors, but the increase in spot prices was limited. In the short term, pulp is expected to trade in a range [1] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On July 16, 2025, SP2601 was 5402, down 0.22% week - on - week and up 1.58% compared to the previous period; SP2605 was 5342, up 0.19% week - on - week and down 0.49% compared to the previous period; SP2509 was 5242, down 0.38% week - on - week and up 2.66% compared to the previous period [1] - **Spot Prices**: On July 16, 2025, the price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5920, unchanged week - on - week and up 0.34% compared to the previous period; the price of coniferous pulp Russian Needle was 5300, unchanged week - on - week and up 3.52% compared to the previous period; the price of broad - leaf pulp Goldfish was 4050, unchanged week - on - week and up 0.75% compared to the previous period [1] - **Outer - Disk Quotes (USD)**: In July 2025, the outer - disk quote of Chilean Silver Star was 720, down 2.70% month - on - month; the outer - disk quote of Chilean Star was 500, down 10.71% month - on - month; the outer - disk quote of Chilean Venus was 620, unchanged month - on - month [1] - **Import Costs**: In July 2025, the import cost of Chilean Silver Star was 5884, down 2.68% month - on - month; the import cost of Chilean Star was 4101, down 10.60% month - on - month; the import cost of Chilean Venus was 5073, unchanged month - on - month [1] Pulp Fundamental Data Supply - **Import Volume**: In May 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 72.2 tons, down 4.75% month - on - month; the import volume of broad - leaf pulp was 129.3 tons, up 7.84% month - on - month [1] - **Domestic Output**: From May 29 to July 10, 2025, the domestic output of broad - leaf pulp fluctuated between 19.9 and 20.9 tons; the domestic output of chemimechanical pulp fluctuated between 19.7 and 20.3 tons [1] - **Pulp Shipment to China**: In May 2025, the pulp shipment to China was 140 tons, up 3.30% month - on - month [1] Inventory - As of July 10, 2025, the sample inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 217.9 tons, a decrease of 3.4 tons from the previous period, a 1.5% week - on - week decrease [1] Demand - This week, the output of major finished paper products increased slightly, but the prices of finished paper products remained low, providing weak support for pulp [1] Pulp Valuation Data - **Basis**: On July 16, 2025, the Russian Needle basis was 58, with a quantile level of 0.813; the Silver Star basis was 678, with a quantile level of 0.905 [1] - **Import Profit**: On July 16, 2025, the import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 36, with a quantile level of 0.685; the import profit of broad - leaf pulp Goldfish was - 51, with a quantile level of 0.593 [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The port inventory of pulp remains at a high level, with a loose supply side in the fundamental aspect and limited improvement in the downstream demand side. The operating rate is maintained at a low level. However, the futures market is easily affected by macro - sentiment recently. It is expected that the price of the pulp 2509 contract will oscillate and rebound in the range of 5130 - 5390 this week [4] Summary by Directory 1 Paper Pulp Price Analysis - **Spot Pulp Price Review**: Last week, the spot market price of pulp declined slightly. In Shandong, the price of coniferous pulp Silver Star increased by 20 yuan/ton (or +0.34%) to 5920 yuan/ton, while the prices of coniferous pulp Cariboo and Northern Wood remained flat at 6000 yuan/ton and 6200 yuan/ton respectively. The prices of broad - leaf pulp Goldfish, Bird, and Alpine remained unchanged at 4020 yuan/ton, 4020 yuan/ton, and 4030 yuan/ton respectively. The prices of chemical mechanical pulp Kunhe, virgin pulp Venus, sugarcane pulp, bamboo pulp, and reed pulp also remained stable [9][13] - **Pulp Futures Review**: The pulp futures contract SP2509 oscillated and rebounded within a 230 - point range last week. It closed at 5234 yuan/ton, up 166 yuan/ton (or +3.28%) for the week. The weighted trading volume was 1.422 million lots, a decrease of 103,000 lots compared with the previous week, and the weighted open interest was 274,000 lots, a decrease of 51,200 lots [14] - **Pulp Futures - Spot Basis Comparison**: The basis discount between coniferous wood pulp and the closing price of the futures main contract was 686 yuan/ton, and the discount amplitude decreased by 146 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [18] - **Log Futures Review**: The main log futures contract 2509 oscillated within a narrow range last week. It closed at 786.0 yuan/cubic meter, down 9.0 yuan/cubic meter (or - 1.13%) compared with the previous week. The weighted trading volume was 87,800 lots, a decrease of 13,700 lots, and the weighted open interest was 28,700 lots, an increase of 1,200 lots [20] 2 Paper Pulp Supply - Side Analysis - **Pulp Weekly Output**: Last week, the pulp output was 475,000 tons, a slight increase of 1,000 tons (or +0.21%) compared with the previous week. The output of broad - leaf pulp was 206,000 tons, and the output of chemical mechanical pulp was 202,000 tons. It is expected that the output of domestic broad - leaf pulp will be about 210,000 tons and the output of chemical mechanical pulp will be about 200,000 tons this week [4][22] - **Capacity Utilization**: Last week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic broad - leaf pulp was 76.2%, an increase of 0.6% compared with the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate of domestic chemical mechanical pulp was 84.8%, an increase of 0.5% compared with the previous week [27] - **Monthly Pulp Output**: In June 2025, the domestic pulp output was 2.072 million tons, a decrease of 72,000 tons (or - 3.36%) compared with the previous month. Among them, the output of wood pulp was 1.746 million tons, a decrease of 63,000 tons (or - 7.69%), and the output of non - wood pulp was 326,000 tons, a decrease of 9,000 tons (or - 2.69%) [28] - **Monthly Production Profit**: In June 2025, the production profit of broad - leaf pulp was 493.6 yuan/ton, a decrease of 167.3 yuan/ton (or - 25.31%) compared with the previous month, and a decrease of 1503.03 yuan/ton (or - 75.28%) compared with the same period last year. The production profit of chemical mechanical pulp was - 376.9 yuan/ton, with a loss reduction of 41.1 yuan/ton compared with the previous month [36] - **Pulp Imports**: In May 2025, the pulp import volume was 3.016 million tons, an increase of 123,200 tons (or +4.26%) compared with the previous month and an increase of 196,000 tons (or +6.95%) compared with the same period last year. From January to May 2025, the cumulative import volume was 15.55 million tons, an increase of 320,000 tons (or +2.1%) compared with the same period last year [38] 3 Paper Pulp Demand - Side Analysis - **Downstream Tissue Paper Market**: Last week, the domestic tissue paper output was 279,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons (or - 0.71%) compared with the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate was 63.2%, a decrease of 0.3% compared with the previous week [40] - **Downstream Cultural Paper Market**: Last week, the output of coated paper was 78,000 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons (or +1.30%) compared with the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate was 57.3%, an increase of 0.4% compared with the previous week. The output of offset paper was 202,000 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons (or - 0.49%) compared with the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate was 56.8%, a decrease of 0.2% compared with the previous week [44] - **Downstream Packaging Paper Market**: Last week, the output of white cardboard was 301,000 tons, a decrease of 12,000 tons (or - 3.83%) compared with the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate was 73.41%, a decrease of 2.93% compared with the previous week. The output of white board paper was 193,000 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons (or - 0.52%) compared with the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate was 68.44%, a decrease of 0.35% compared with the previous week. The output of corrugated paper was 463,600 tons, a decrease of 9,000 tons (or - 1.9%) compared with the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate was 62.15%, a decrease of 1.21% compared with the previous week. The output of boxboard paper was 619,000 tons, an increase of 5,500 tons (or +0.9%) compared with the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate was 68.35%, an increase of 0.6% compared with the previous week [47][50] - **Downstream Base Paper Spot Price Analysis**: In the tissue paper market, the prices of wood pulp, bamboo pulp, and sugarcane pulp base paper remained stable. In the cultural paper market, the price of double - copper paper decreased by 50 yuan/ton (or - 0.93%), while the price of double - offset paper remained unchanged. In the white board paper market, the prices remained stable, while in the white cardboard market, the price of some products decreased by 50 yuan/ton (or - 1.26%). The prices of corrugated paper and boxboard paper remained stable [51][55][57] - **Downstream Base Paper Capacity Utilization**: In June 2025, the output of tissue paper was 1.193 million tons, a decrease of 29,000 tons (or - 2.37%) compared with the previous month, and the capacity utilization rate was 63.0%, a decrease of 1.5% compared with the previous month. The output of white cardboard was 1.29 million tons, an increase of 10,000 tons (or +0.78%) compared with the previous month, and the capacity utilization rate was 73.3%, an increase of 2.58% compared with the previous month. The output of double - offset paper was 862,000 tons, a decrease of 27,000 tons (or - 3.04%) compared with the previous month, and the capacity utilization rate was 56.37%, an increase of 0.1% compared with the previous month. The output of coated paper was 327,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons (or - 2.97%) compared with the previous month, and the capacity utilization rate was 56.35%, an increase of 0.15% compared with the previous month. The actual consumption of domestic pulp in June 2025 was 3.195 million tons, a decrease of 52,000 tons (or - 1.6%) compared with the previous month [59][64][67] 4 Paper Pulp Inventory Analysis - **Pulp Port Inventory**: Currently, the overall port inventory of pulp is in a destocking trend. The inventory of mainstream port samples is 2.179 million tons, a decrease of 35,000 tons (or - 1.54%) compared with the previous week. Among them, the inventory of Qingdao Port is 1.364 million tons, a decrease of 14,000 tons (or - 1.02%). The inventory of Changshu Port is 605,000 tons, an increase of 7,000 tons (or +1.17%), and the inventory of Tianjin Port is 59,000 tons, a decrease of 3,000 tons (or - 4.84%) [70][71] - **Futures Pulp Warehouse Receipts**: Currently, the pulp futures warehouse receipts are 238,500 tons, a decrease of 1,550 tons (or - 0.65%) compared with the previous week. The total warehouse receipts in Shandong are 218,700 tons, a decrease of 1,550 tons (or - 0.7%) [75]

Report Summary 1) Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View - The pulp futures are expected to rebound slightly in the short - term under the background of macro - positive factors [2]. 3) Summary by Directory Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On July 10, 2025, SP2601 was 5386 with a daily increase of 1.28% and a weekly increase of 1.51%; SP2507 was 5150 with a daily increase of 1.58% and a weekly increase of 1.66%; SP2509 was 5196 with a daily increase of 1.76% and a weekly increase of 2.00% [1]. - **Spot Prices**: On July 10, 2025, the spot price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5920 with a daily and weekly increase of 0.34%; Russian Needle was 5200 with a daily and weekly increase of 1.56%; Eucalyptus pulp Goldfish was 4020 with no change [1]. - **Outer - plate Quotes and Import Costs**: The outer - plate quotes of Chilean Silver Star decreased by 2.70% month - on - month, Chilean Star decreased by 10.71% month - on - month, and Chilean Venus remained unchanged. The import costs of Chilean Silver Star decreased by 2.68% month - on - month, Chilean Star decreased by 10.60% month - on - month, and Chilean Venus remained unchanged [1]. Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In May 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 72.2 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.75%; the import volume of eucalyptus pulp was 129.3 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.84%. The W20 shipment volume to China in May increased by 3.3% month - on - month. The supply side showed an increase in quantity and a decrease in price [1]. - **Demand**: The output of major finished paper increased slightly this week, but the price of finished paper remained low, providing weak support for pulp [2]. - **Inventory**: As of July 10, 2025, the inventory of China's major pulp ports was 217.9 tons, a decrease of 3.4 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 1.5%, showing a de - stocking trend [2]. Valuation Data - **Basis**: On July 10, 2025, the Russian Needle basis was 4 with a quantile level of 0.71, and the Silver Star basis was 724 with a quantile level of 0.925 [1]. - **Import Profit**: On July 10, 2025, the import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 36 with a quantile level of 0.686, and that of eucalyptus pulp Goldfish was - 81 with a quantile level of 0.564 [1].

Report Information - Report Title: Pulp Daily Report [1] - Date: July 10, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The pulp futures 09 contract closed at 5106 yuan/ton, up 0.67%. The port de - stocking speed is slow, the supply of the imported wood pulp market is relatively loose, and with the domestic new capacity coming into operation, it will fluctuate in a low - level range [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: The previous settlement price of pulp futures 09 contract was 5072 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 5106 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.67% [7]. - **Spot Market**: The intended transaction price range of softwood pulp in Shandong was 5070 - 6700 yuan/ton, with the low - end price stable compared to the previous trading day. The price of Chilean Arauco's Silver Star in Shandong was 5920 - 5950 yuan/ton. The net price of Uruguay's eucalyptus pulp Star was 500 US dollars/ton [7]. - **Supply Data**: In May, the shipment volume of softwood pulp from 20 major pulp - producing countries decreased by 8.2% year - on - year, and the cumulative decrease from January to April was 0.6%. In May, the total wood pulp inventory in European ports increased by 13.3% month - on - month and 22% year - on - year. In May, China's pulp imports were 3.02 million tons, up 4.3% month - on - month and 6.9% year - on - year. As of July 3, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major regions and ports increased by 3.11% month - on - month, only the inventory in Qingdao Port decreased [7]. - **Downstream Situation**: The overall market orders of downstream paper mills have not improved significantly, and the prices of finished paper are stable. The port de - stocking speed is slow, and the supply of the imported wood pulp market is relatively loose, along with the domestic new capacity coming into operation [7]. 2. Industry News - **New Capacity in the Living Paper Industry**: From January to June 2025, about 744,000 t/a of modern production capacity was newly put into operation in the industry, a slight increase compared to the same period in 2024 [8]. - **Special Paper Projects**: The 3.6 - million - ton special paper project of Xianhua with a total investment of 3.6 billion yuan is expected to make the company the largest special paper production base in northern China. The 45,000 - ton electronic carrier tape paper project of Xianhua with a total investment of 1 billion yuan has been completed and is in the commissioning stage [8]. 3. Data Overview - **Graphs**: The report presents various graphs including those related to import pulp prices, futures prices, price spreads, inventory, and exchange rates, with data sources from Wind,卓创资讯, and the research and development department of Jianxin Futures [7][25][27]

Report Summary 1. Core Data - On July 1, 2025, the closing price of the SP main contract was 5026.00, with a decrease of 0.75039% from the previous day. The converted US dollar price was 612.39. The basis of Shandong Yinxing was 924, and that of Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai Yinxing was 964 [3]. - Based on a 13% VAT calculation, the import profit of Canadian Golden Lion was 219.18, while that of Canadian Lion was -366.28, and that of Chilean Yinxing was -107.19 [4]. 2. Price and Profit Trends - From June 25 to July 1, 2025, the national average prices of softwood pulp, hardwood pulp, natural pulp, and chemimechanical pulp remained unchanged, as did the average prices in Shandong. The prices of cultural paper, packaging paper, and tissue paper also remained stable, but the profit margins of double - offset paper, double - copper paper, white cardboard, and tissue paper all showed an increasing trend [4]. - The price differences between softwood and hardwood pulp, softwood and natural pulp, softwood and chemimechanical pulp, and softwood pulp and waste paper showed minor fluctuations during this period [4].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The pulp futures contract rebounded slightly today but remained weak. The demand side is in the traditional off - season, with downstream paper manufacturers' inventories piling up and low procurement willingness. The supply side shows high - level fluctuations in imports and falling import prices, especially a severe oversupply of hardwood pulp. The next demand peak is expected to start in mid - August, and large - scale restocking may occur after July. The pulp price is under downward pressure in a weak supply - demand environment, and the pulp futures are unlikely to have a continuous upward trend but have limited downside space [3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Content Price Forecast and Hedging Strategy - The monthly price range of pulp is predicted to be between 4900 - 5400 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 24.32% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 79.5% [2]. - For inventory management, when the softwood pulp inventory is high, enterprises can short pulp futures (sp2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 5200 - 5300 yuan/ton to lock in profits and cover production costs [2]. - For procurement management, when paper manufacturers' inventory is low, they can buy pulp futures (sp2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 4900 - 5100 yuan/ton to lock in procurement costs [2]. Core Contradiction Analysis - The pulp futures are weak due to weak demand in the off - season and high - level supply. The next demand peak is expected in mid - August, and large - scale restocking may be after July. The pulp price faces downward pressure, and the futures are unlikely to rise continuously but have limited downside [3]. 利多 and 利空 Factors - The potential bullish factors include a significant strengthening of the US dollar exchange rate and the implementation of macro - policies [4]. - The bearish factor is the continuous decline of overseas pulp quotes. The report also lists the price changes of various pulp types and paper products, showing a general downward trend in pulp prices [5][7].