Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In October 2025, the pulp market had a pattern of strong supply and weak demand for softwood pulp, with high inventory and slow de - stocking suppressing the rebound. The double - offset paper was in the off - season, and it was difficult to implement price increases. The pulp market's "structural increment" was still concentrated in hardwood pulp [4][5]. - For the pulp market in November, the upper limit was suppressed by high inventory and old warehouse receipts, while the lower limit was supported by the foreign market quotation and the price increase of white cardboard. For double - offset paper, prices were expected to continue to hover at low levels, and inventory reduction still relied on paper mills' active production cuts [5]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Paper Pulp Market Review - In October, the domestic spot pulp price showed a pattern of "differentiated oscillations, weak softwood and stable hardwood". Softwood pulp led the decline due to high port inventory, weak demand, and financial market pressure. Hardwood pulp rose slightly supported by foreign market price increases and tight immediate supply. Unbleached pulp and chemimechanical pulp showed sideways movements, and domestic chemimechanical pulp rose rapidly in the second half of the month due to wood chip shortages, while non - wood pulp fluctuated slightly with wood pulp [10]. - The pulp futures 01 contract in October showed a "first - down - then - up" oscillating trend. Influenced by factors such as factory shutdowns, paper mill price increases, and exchange rate changes, the closing price at the end of the month increased by about 1.5% compared to the beginning of the month, and the daily average amplitude of the main contract was about 1.2% [15][17]. 2. Paper Pulp Supply - **Import**: In September, China's paper pulp imports reached 295.2 million tons, a historical peak for the same period. The forecast for October arrivals remained at around 3 million tons. It was expected that the annual imports would exceed 36 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.5% [21]. - **Domestic Production**: In October, domestic paper pulp production was 2.38 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.4%. It was expected that the annual production would reach 25.2 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 4% [21][22]. - **Inventory**: As of October 23, the sample inventory of mainstream ports was 2.055 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.9%. If the November imports decreased as expected, the inventory was expected to continue to decline slightly, but it was difficult to fall below the critical level of 1.9 million tons [23][24]. 3. Paper Pulp Demand - **Cultural Paper**: In October, the apparent consumption of cultural paper decreased, and the demand for pulp continued to decline. It was expected that the annual pulp consumption would decrease by about 5% [27]. - **Packaging Paper**: In October, the consumption of hardwood pulp in packaging paper increased rapidly. It was expected that the annual pulp consumption would increase by 8 - 10% [27][28][29]. - **Household Paper**: In October, household paper maintained high - level production and sales. It was expected that the annual pulp consumption would increase by about 6% [30][31]. 4. Cultural Paper Market Review - **Double - Offset Paper**: In October, the average market price of double - offset paper was 4,643 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 2.1%. In November, there was still a risk of price decline [32]. - **Coated Paper**: In October, the average price of coated paper was 4,975 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 3.9%. In November, prices were expected to continue to hover at low levels [32][34]. 5. Cultural Paper Price Analysis - **Production**: In October, the production of double - offset paper was 890,000 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 52.3%. The production of coated paper was 353,000 tons, with a utilization rate of 58.8%. In November, the planned production of both was expected to increase slightly [36][37]. - **Inventory**: At the end of October, the enterprise inventory of double - offset paper was 1.341 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.3%. The inventory of coated paper was 371,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.4%. If the price increase letters were not implemented in November, the inventory would continue to rise [38]. - **Profit**: In October, the losses of double - offset paper and coated paper expanded. In November, although paper mills issued price increase letters, it was difficult to reverse the loss situation [39]. - **Cost**: In October, the cost of wood pulp and energy increased, squeezing the profit space of paper mills. In November, there was still upward pressure on costs [40]. - **Import and Export**: In September, the imports and exports of double - offset paper and coated paper decreased. In October, the export volume was expected to remain low [40][41]. - **Downstream Demand**: In October, the demand for cultural paper was weak. In November, the spring textbook tender volume was expected to decline, and the demand was difficult to provide upward momentum [42]. 6. Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendations - **Paper Pulp Fundamental Analysis**: In November, attention should be paid to the port de - stocking speed. If the inventory fell below 1.9 million tons, the basis would converge, and the futures price would rise; otherwise, the near - low - far - high reverse spread would be maintained [46]. - **Paper Pulp Futures Strategy**: For single - side trading, short the SP2511 contract on rallies and long the SP2601 contract on dips. For arbitrage, mainly use the 12 - 1 reverse spread idea. For options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [47][49]. - **Double - Offset Paper Fundamental Analysis**: In November, the supply and demand of double - offset paper remained loose, prices were expected to continue to hover at low levels, and inventory reduction relied on paper mills' active production cuts [50]. - **Double - Offset Paper Strategy**: For single - side trading, short the OP2601 contract on rallies. For arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [51][54].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The pulp and offset paper may be relatively volatile in the short term. Some pulp mills are under maintenance, reducing supply - side pressure. However, downstream paper开工率 varies, cultural paper consumption has not continued its positive trend from August, and port inventories are relatively high, restricting pulp prices. For offset paper, price increases by some paper mills are favorable for futures prices, and inventory reduction should be monitored [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Forecast and Volatility - The predicted monthly price range for pulp is 4750 - 5350, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 12.41% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 17.81%. For offset printing paper, the price range is 4150 - 4250, with a volatility of 6.31% and a historical percentile of 8.69% [2]. Risk Management Strategies - **Inventory Management**: When inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, sell pulp/offset printing paper futures (SP2601, OP2601) at 25% hedging ratio, with suggested entry ranges of 5300 - 5400 for pulp and 4250 - 4300 for offset paper. Also, sell call options (SP2601C5300, OP2601C4250) at 25% ratio when volatility is appropriate [2]. - **Procurement Management**: When inventory is low, buy pulp/offset printing paper futures (SP2601, OP2601) at 25% hedging ratio, with entry ranges of 4950 - 5050 for pulp and 4100 - 4150 for offset paper. Sell put options (SP2512P4850, OP2601P4050) at 25% ratio when volatility is appropriate [2]. Market Analysis - **Pulp**: Spot prices are stable. Some pulp mills' maintenance eases supply - side pressure, but downstream demand is mixed, cultural paper consumption is weak, and high port inventories limit prices. It may wait for the traditional peak season for support [3]. - **Offset Paper**: Starting from November, many paper mills will raise prices by 200 yuan/ton, which is favorable for futures prices, and the futures price shows a slightly upward - trending volatile pattern. Attention should be paid to inventory reduction [3]. Trading Strategies - **Pulp**: In the futures market, buy on dips or wait and see; in the options market, sell out - of - the - money put options for far - month contracts [11]. - **Offset Paper**: In the futures market, sell on rallies; in the options market, wait and see [11]. Factors Affecting the Market - **Positive Factors**: Paper mills are raising paper prices, there are expectations of a Fed rate cut, and overseas broad - leaf pulp has production cuts and price increases [7][12]. - **Negative Factors**: There is a possibility of reduced overseas shipping costs, high port inventories are difficult to reduce, and the peak demand season is not prosperous [12]. Price and Spread Data - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: On October 29, 2025, pulp futures prices (SP11, SP01, SP03) and offset paper futures prices (OP01, OP02, OP03) had different daily and weekly changes, and there were also corresponding price spreads between different contracts [15]. - **Spot Prices and Regional Spreads**: On October 28, 2025, pulp and double - offset paper spot prices in different regions (Shandong, South China, Jiangsu - Zhejiang - Shanghai, etc.) and their regional spreads are provided [16]. Basis Data - **Pulp Basis**: The daily changes in pulp basis on October 29, 2025, including different pulp brands and contract combinations, are presented [9]. - **Offset Paper Basis**: The daily changes in offset paper basis on October 29, 2025, for different mills and contract combinations, are shown [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints The supply - demand fundamentals of pulp have slightly improved, and pulp prices are expected to oscillate and rebound slightly. Although the inventory at domestic ports is decreasing, the supply is abundant. There is still inventory pressure on finished paper, and industry profits are meager. Affected by policy expectations and macro - emotions, the price of the pulp 2601 contract is expected to oscillate and rebound in the range of 5150 - 5420 this week [4][5]. Summary by Directory 1 Paper Pulp Price Analysis - **Spot Pulp Price Review**: Last week, the spot prices of coniferous and broad - leaved pulp remained stable, while the price of natural pulp increased by 3.09% month - on - month, and the prices of chemimechanical pulp and non - wood pulp remained stable. For example, the price of coniferous pulp Silver Star in Shandong was 5500 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month, and the price of natural pulp Venus increased by 150 yuan/ton (or + 3.09%) [11][13]. - **Paper Pulp Futures Review**: The pulp futures contract SP2601 oscillated and rebounded steadily last week, closing at 5240 yuan/ton, up 118 yuan/ton (or + 2.3%) week - on - week. The weighted trading volume was 1.3 million lots, a decrease of 199,000 lots, and the weighted open interest was 355,000 lots, a decrease of 41,200 lots [15]. - **Pulp Futures - Spot Basis Comparison**: The discount of the futures - spot basis continued to shrink. The basis discount between coniferous wood pulp and the closing price of the main futures contract was 250 yuan/ton, a reduction of 128 yuan/ton compared with last week [19]. - **Log Futures Review**: The log futures contract 2601 showed a trend of rising first and then falling with slight oscillations. It closed at 829.0 yuan/cubic meter, down 6.5 yuan/cubic meter (or - 0.78%) week - on - week. The weighted trading volume was 69,200 lots, a decrease of 9700 lots, and the weighted open interest was 25,100 lots, an increase of 3700 lots [20]. 2 Paper Pulp Supply - Side Analysis - **Weekly Pulp Production**: Last week, the pulp production was 535,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6000 tons (or + 1.13%). The production of broad - leaved pulp was 235,000 tons, an increase of 3000 tons (or + 1.29%), and the production of chemimechanical pulp was 236,000 tons, an increase of 2000 tons (or + 0.85%). This week, the production of domestic broad - leaved pulp is expected to be about 237,000 tons, and that of chemimechanical pulp about 237,000 tons [22]. - **Capacity Utilization**: Last week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic broad - leaved pulp was 84.9%, a decrease of 0.9%, and that of domestic chemimechanical pulp was 89.8%, an increase of 0.6%. This week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic broad - leaved pulp is expected to rise due to the resumption of some sample enterprises [25]. - **Monthly Pulp Production**: In September 2025, the domestic pulp production was 2.196 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 69,000 tons (or + 3.24%); the wood pulp production was 1.89 million tons, an increase of 74,000 tons (or + 4.07%); the non - wood pulp production was 306,000 tons, a decrease of 5000 tons (or - 1.61%) [27]. - **Monthly Capacity Utilization**: In September 2025, the production of domestic chemimechanical pulp was 902,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10,000 tons (or + 1.12%), and the capacity utilization rate was 81.9%, an increase of 0.8%. The production of broad - leaved pulp was 988,000 tons, an increase of 64,000 tons (or + 6.93%), and the capacity utilization rate was 82.0%, an increase of 1.1% [32]. - **Monthly Production Profit**: In September 2025, the production profit of broad - leaved pulp was 575.1 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 49.1 yuan/ton (or + 9.33%), and a year - on - year decrease of 585.46 yuan/ton (or - 50.45%). The production profit of chemimechanical pulp was - 301.3 yuan/ton, a reduction of losses by 3.3 yuan/ton [35]. - **Pulp Imports**: In September 2025, the pulp import volume was 2.9525 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 299,600 tons (or + 11.29%) and a year - on - year increase of 272,500 tons (or + 10.17%). The cumulative import volume from January to September 2025 was 27.0608 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.42 million tons (or + 5.6%) [36]. 3 Paper Pulp Demand - Side Analysis - **Downstream Capacity Utilization**: - **Household Tissue Paper**: Last week, the production was 284,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3800 tons (or + 1.35%), and the capacity utilization rate was 65.2%, an increase of 1.63%. This week, the production is expected to be about 286,000 tons [40]. - **Offset Paper**: Last week, the production was 207,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4000 tons (or + 1.97%), and the capacity utilization rate was 53.9%, an increase of 0.9%. This week, the production is expected to increase to about 210,000 tons [43]. - **Coated Paper**: Last week, the production was 85,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6000 tons (or + 7.59%), and the capacity utilization rate was 63.1%, an increase of 4.8%. This week, the production is expected to be about 85,000 tons [46]. - **White Cardboard**: Last week, the production was 360,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15,000 tons (or + 4.35%), and the capacity utilization rate was 79.65%, an increase of 3.32%. This week, the production is expected to be about 362,000 tons [49]. - **Downstream Base Paper Gross Profit**: - **Household Tissue Paper**: Last week, the gross profit was 151 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 7 yuan/ton (or - 4.43%). - **White Cardboard**: The social gross profit was 110 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 1 yuan/ton (or + 0.92%). - **Offset Paper**: The average cost was 4887.0 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 4.4 yuan/ton (or - 0.09%), and the gross profit was - 244 yuan/ton, a reduction of losses by 5 yuan/ton. - **Coated Paper**: The average cost was 4781.8 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 5.0 yuan/ton (or - 0.10%), and the gross profit was 193 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton (or + 2.66%) [52][55]. - **Domestic Pulp Consumption**: In September 2025, the actual domestic pulp consumption was 3.461 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 59,000 tons (or + 1.75%) and a year - on - year increase of 237,000 tons (or + 7.36%) [56]. - **Downstream Base Paper Spot Price Analysis**: - **Household Tissue Paper and Cultural Paper**: The prices remained stable. For example, the price of wood pulp large - roll base paper in Shandong was 5900 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month. - **White Board Paper and White Cardboard**: The price of white board paper remained stable, while the price of white cardboard increased slightly. For example, the price of Jiangsu Bohui 250 - 400g red - crowned crane white cardboard increased by 50 yuan/ton (or + 1.30%) [59][64]. 4 Paper Pulp Inventory Analysis - **Pulp Port Inventory**: The overall port inventory is decreasing. The inventory of mainstream port samples was 2.055 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 19,000 tons (or - 0.92%). Qingdao Port's inventory was 1.39 million tons, a decrease of 12,000 tons (or - 0.86%); Changshu Port's inventory was 505,000 tons, an increase of 7000 tons (or + 1.41%); Tianjin Port's inventory was 75,000 tons, a decrease of 3000 tons (or - 3.85%) [67][68]. - **Futures Pulp Warehouse Receipts**: The pulp futures warehouse receipts decreased by 0.78% month - on - month to 228,400 tons. The warehouse receipts in Shandong decreased by 0.83% to 215,700 tons [70].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The pulp futures market has been in an adjustment trend since February this year, with the current low - level increasing positions and rising. Attention should be paid to the stabilization of the futures market. It is recommended to consider lightly testing long positions at low prices [3][29]. - In October, the demand side of the pulp market shows a slight recovery, but the high - price transactions are difficult to increase due to the general purchasing enthusiasm of downstream paper mills and sufficient domestic pulp supply. The supply and demand are in continuous game [2][3][29]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - In October, pulp futures hit the bottom and rebounded. The main contract completed the shift of positions, and the position gradually moved to the SP2601 contract. After hitting a low of 5042 yuan/ton on October 13, it rebounded. The profit improvement of downstream paper enterprises was poor, and the purchasing enthusiasm was insufficient, which dragged down the pulp futures market. With the arrival of the traditional peak season in October, the new production capacity of tissue paper enterprises will continue to be released, and the demand side has a slight recovery [8]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **Import Volume in September**: In September 2025, China imported 2.952 million tons of pulp. From January to September, the cumulative import volume and amount increased by 5.6% and - 0.7% respectively compared with the same period last year. The import volume of coniferous pulp in September was 690,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.52% and a year - on - year increase of 11.32%. The import volume of broad - leaf pulp was 1.3559 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.81% and a year - on - year increase of 9.40%. Affected by geopolitics, the import volume from North America decreased, but the import volume from Brazil, Chile, Finland and Uruguay increased. The total import volume of pulp in China is at a relatively high level in history [1][12][28]. - **October Foreign Market Quotations**: Chile's Arauco Company's new round of October wood pulp foreign market quotations showed that the price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 680 US dollars/ton, 20 US dollars/ton lower than that in September; the price of natural pulp Venus was 590 US dollars/ton, the same as that in September; the price of broad - leaf pulp Star was 540 US dollars/ton, the same as that in September. The general purchasing enthusiasm of downstream paper mills and sufficient domestic pulp supply dragged down the actual transaction price of broad - leaf pulp. The price of imported broad - leaf pulp remained high, and traders had a certain price - holding sentiment. The estimated gross profit margin of Silver Star spot was - 5.20%, up 0.16 percentage points from the previous week before the festival, and down 5.75 percentage points from the same period last year [16]. - **Profit of Downstream Paper Enterprises**: As of October 16, the weekly operating load rate of double - copper paper was 63.90%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.80 percentage points; that of double - offset paper was 48.61%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.84 percentage points; that of white cardboard increased by 0.05 percentage points, and the output increased by 0.09%; that of tissue paper increased by 1.15 percentage points, and the output increased by 1.65%. The operating load rate of downstream paper enterprises showed a differentiated trend. The overall operating level of double - copper paper and double - offset paper was low, while that of tissue paper and white cardboard increased. The demand side showed a slight recovery in October, but the pulp market continued the dynamic game [21][22][29]. - **Inventory Situation**: As of October 16, 2025, the total weekly inventory of pulp in Baoding, Tianjin Port, Rizhao Port, Qingdao Port, Changshu Port, Shanghai Port, Gaolan Port and Nansha Port was 1.9342 million tons, a 0.91% increase from the previous week, turning from a decline to an increase. In August 2025, the total inventory of European ports increased by 7.61% month - on - month and 9.76% year - on - year, and the inventory of most European countries' ports increased month - on - month [2][22][29]. 3.3 Outlook for the Future - The supply side shows that China's total pulp import volume is at a relatively high level in history. The demand side has a slight recovery in October, but the high - price transactions are difficult to increase. The price of imported broad - leaf pulp remains high, and the supply and demand are in continuous game. The pulp futures market is currently increasing positions and rising at a low level, and attention should be paid to the stabilization of the market. It is recommended to consider lightly testing long positions at low prices [28][29].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of pulp have no signs of repair, with no significant reduction in pulp port inventory and the number of warehouse receipts. Pulp futures are running weakly. It is recommended to consider a 11 - 1 reverse spread strategy [5][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On October 10, 2025, SP2601 was 5078, down 0.51% day - on - day and 4.44% week - on - week; SP2511 was 4788, down 0.33% day - on - day and 5.38% week - on - week; SP2505 was 5136, down 0.19% day - on - day and 3.60% week - on - week [5]. - **Spot Prices**: Coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5520, unchanged day - on - day and down 2.30% week - on - week; Coniferous pulp Russian Needle was 5050, unchanged day - on - day and down 2.88% week - on - week; Hardwood pulp was 4250, unchanged day - on - day and up 0.71% week - on - week [5]. - **Outer - Disk Quotes**: Chilean Silver Star was 700 dollars, down 2.78% month - on - month; Rizhao Beige was 530 dollars, up 3.92% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 590 dollars, unchanged month - on - month [5]. - **Import Costs**: Brazilian Goldfish was 4344, up 3.87% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 4830, unchanged month - on - month [5]. Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In August 2025, coniferous pulp imports were 61.4 tons, down 4.95% month - on - month; hardwood pulp imports were 125.8 tons, down 6.88% month - on - month. The pulp shipment volume to China in August 2025 was 162 tons, up 4.50% [5]. - **Production**: In September 2025, hardwood pulp production was 23.8 tons; chemimechanical pulp production was 22.3 tons [5]. - **Inventory**: As of September 25, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 203.3 tons, down 7.9 tons from the previous period, a 3.7% decline; the futures delivery warehouse inventory was 23.5 tons [5]. - **Demand**: In September 2025, the production of offset paper was 21.00 tons; copperplate paper was 8.50 tons; tissue paper was 28.07 tons; white cardboard was 35.90 tons [5]. Valuation Data - **Basis**: On October 10, 2025, the Russian Needle basis was 262, with a quantile level of 0.913; the Silver Star basis was 732, with a quantile level of 0.926 [5]. - **Import Profit**: On October 10, 2025, the import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was - 201, with a quantile level of 0.31; the import profit of hardwood pulp Goldfish was - 94, with a quantile level of 0.554 [5]. Market Situation - **Supply Side**: Arauco in Chile offered coniferous pulp Silver Star at 700 dollars/ton in September; hardwood pulp Star at 540 dollars/ton, up 20 dollars/ton; and beige pulp Venus at a flat 590 dollars/ton. Coniferous pulp outer - disk quotes decreased, while hardwood pulp quotes increased [5]. - **Demand Side**: Current paper product demand is basically stable, paper product prices have not rebounded significantly, and the positive impact of the "Golden September and Silver October" on the pulp demand side has not been reflected [5]. - **Inventory Side**: As of September 25, 2025, the inventory of China's mainstream pulp ports was 203.3 tons, a 7.9 - ton reduction from the previous period, a 3.7% decline, showing a de - stocking trend [5].

Report Information - Report Title: Pulp Monthly Report [1] - Date: October 10, 2025 [2] - Core View: In October, supported by seasonality and cost, pulp prices may have a phased rebound. However, without significant improvement in industry profits, it is difficult to have a trend change, and the pulp market will mainly fluctuate at a low level [7] - Strategy: Range operation, short near-term contracts and long far-term contracts [7] - Important Variables: Macroeconomic policies, supply disruptions, and demand performance [7] Group 1: Market Review - In September, pulp prices fluctuated at a low level with a monthly decline of 2.8%. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points on September 17, and the Sino-US leaders' call promoted trade negotiations. In the domestic market, the CPI in August decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, industrial added value increased by 5.2% year-on-year with a slight month-on-month decline, and the year-on-year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods continued to slow down to 3.4%. The pulp peak season in September fell short of expectations, and the fundamentals remained weak [9] - The FOB prices of imported wood pulp showed a mixed trend, and the RMB exchange rate fluctuated within a narrow range. The cost support for imported softwood pulp was relatively weak. In the European market, the consumption of chemical pulp in August increased by 2.4% year-on-year, and the inventory of chemical pulp increased by 11.3% year-on-year. In August, the chemical pulp shipments of the world's top 20 pulp-producing countries increased by 10.3% year-on-year, with softwood pulp up 5% and hardwood pulp up 14.7%. It is expected that the subsequent imports will remain at a relatively high level compared to the same period [9] - As of late September, the inventory in major regions and ports decreased by 2.8% month-on-month. Although September entered the traditional consumption peak season, downstream paper mills lacked confidence, processing profits were difficult to improve, and the enthusiasm for raw material procurement was poor. The average monthly price of imported softwood pulp in September decreased by 2.23% compared to the previous month, while that of imported hardwood pulp increased by 1.08% [9] - Arauco's September wood pulp FOB prices were as follows: softwood pulp Silver Star at $700/ton, natural pulp Venus at $590/ton, and hardwood pulp Star at $540/ton [9] Group 2: Global Commodity Pulp Shipments Increase Year-on-Year - Global commodity pulp shipments increased year-on-year. According to PPPC, in July, the softwood pulp shipments of the world's top 20 pulp-producing countries were 1.77 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 3.22% and a year-on-year increase of 4.11%; the hardwood pulp shipments were 2.65 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 12.69% and a year-on-year increase of 11.08% [17] - In July, the ratio of global commodity chemical pulp shipments to production capacity decreased seasonally but remained at a relatively high level compared to the same period. It decreased by 9.49% compared to the previous month and increased by 7.29% compared to the same period last year. In July, the inventory days of softwood pulp for global producers were 50 days, basically the same as the previous month and 7 days more than the same period last year; for hardwood pulp, it was 45 days, 1 day more than the previous month and 2 days less than the same period last year [17] - China's pulp imports decreased both month-on-month and year-on-year in August. In August, China imported 2.65 million tons of pulp, a month-on-month decrease of 8.0% and a year-on-year decrease of 5.7%. From January to August, the cumulative pulp imports were 24.11 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.0%. By variety, in August, the imports of softwood pulp were 610,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 10.1%; the imports of hardwood pulp were 1.26 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.4% [17] - The inventory in major ports continued to decline in September. As of late September, the inventory in major domestic ports and regions was approximately 1.99 million tons, a decrease of 2.8% compared to the previous month. Among them, the inventory in Qingdao Port increased by 0.8% compared to the previous month, while that in Changshu Port decreased by 11.8% [17] Group 3: No Obvious Improvement in Downstream Market Demand - The year-on-year growth rate of China's cumulative output of machine-made paper slowed down. In August 2025, the output of machine-made paper and paperboard was 13.919 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.5%. From January to August, the cumulative output was 106.659 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.7% [38] - The finished product inventory of China's papermaking and paper products industry decreased. In August, the inventory of the papermaking and paper products industry was flat year-on-year and decreased by 0.4% month-on-month. The finished product inventory decreased by 1.1% year-on-year and 2.4% month-on-month [38] - In September, the prices of downstream base paper showed a mixed trend, and the demand growth was relatively limited. As of September 28, the monthly average price of the white cardboard market was 3,960 yuan/ton, a 0.35% increase compared to the previous month. In September, the cost pressure in the market remained high, and paper mills raised prices by 100 yuan/ton. The new production capacity in Central China was postponed, and terminal inventories were low, with mainly rigid demand replenishment [38] - As of September 28, the monthly average price of the tissue paper market was 5,647 yuan/ton, a 1.06% increase compared to the previous month. In September, several paper enterprises in Southwest China shut down or reduced production, the market supply tightened, and paper enterprises raised prices to sell. The prices in Guangxi also showed an upward trend driven by the price of bagasse pulp [38] - As of September 28, the monthly average price of the offset printing paper market was 4,807 yuan/ton, a 2.77% decrease compared to the previous month. In early September, the idle production lines in Shandong resumed production, increasing the market supply pressure. Downstream printing factories received average orders. Some factories in South China shut down briefly due to weather, and the consumption of base paper was slow. Coupled with the delay of publishing tenders, the overall market sales were slow [39] - As of September 28, the monthly average price of the coated paper market was 4,968 yuan/ton, a 4.13% decrease compared to the previous month. In September, some large-scale idle production lines resumed production, increasing the industry supply. Distributors actively reduced inventories to avoid price decline risks. Downstream printing and packaging orders were average, and the consumption speed of base paper was slow [39] Group 4: Differentiated Trends in Gross Profit Margins of Wood Pulp Paper Products - The overall gross profit margins of wood pulp paper products showed a differentiated trend. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to August 2025, the cumulative year-on-year decline in operating income of the papermaking and paper products industry was 1.9%, and the cumulative year-on-year decline in total profit was 18.8%, with the overall decline slightly narrowing [50] - In September, the monthly average of major raw material costs fluctuated weakly compared to the previous month, and the prices of terminal paper products showed a mixed trend. The overall gross profit margins showed a differentiated trend. By variety, in September, the gross profit margin of white cardboard increased by 2.03 percentage points compared to the previous month; the gross profit margin of tissue paper slightly increased by 0.04 percentage points; the gross profit margin of offset printing paper decreased by 1.77 percentage points; and the gross profit margin of coated paper decreased by 3.06 percentage points [50]

General Information - Report Title: Pulp Daily Report [1] - Date: September 30, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - Pulp futures contract 01 had a previous settlement price of 5,290 yuan/ton and a closing price of 5,174 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.19% [7]. - The intended transaction price range of softwood pulp in the Shandong wood pulp market was 4,920 - 6,600 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of Arauco Silver Star in Shandong was 5,550 - 5,580 yuan/ton [7]. Company Quotes and Industry Data - Chile's Arauco Company announced its September wood pulp export prices: Silver Star softwood pulp was $700/ton, down $20/ton from last month; Venus natural pulp was $590/ton, unchanged from last month; Star hardwood pulp was $540/ton, up $20/ton from last month [8]. - In August, the chemical pulp shipments of the world's top 20 pulp - producing countries increased by 10.3% year - on - year, with softwood pulp up 5% and hardwood pulp up 14.7% [8]. - China's total pulp imports in August were 2.653 million tons, a 7.9% decrease from the previous month and a 5.6% decrease year - on - year [8]. - As of September 25, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major regions and ports decreased by 3.84% month - on - month [8]. Market Outlook - Before the holiday, the replenishment enthusiasm of the downstream base paper industry increased limitedly, and the demand growth was slow. As the holiday approached, market transactions slowed down, and demand support was limited. Near - month contracts were testing the cost line. In the short term, pulp prices would continue to fluctuate at a low level [8]. Industry News - From January to August 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in China was 4,692.97 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.9%. The paper and paper products industry achieved a total profit of 2.293 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 18.8%; the printing and recording media reproduction industry achieved a total profit of 2.072 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 5.2% [9]. - Chief statistician Yu Weining of the National Bureau of Statistics interpreted the profit data of industrial enterprises from January to August 2025, stating that due to multiple factors such as the effectiveness of macro - policies, the in - depth promotion of the national unified market, and the low base in the same period last year, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size improved significantly, revenue remained stable, the equipment manufacturing industry played a key role, and the profits of different - sized enterprises improved [9]. Data Overview - The report includes various data charts, such as European main port wood pulp inventory, domestic main port area pulp inventory, and prices and spreads of different types of paper [23][25]

国信期货研究 Page 1 国信期货纸浆季报 低位运行，等待需求企稳 纸浆 2025 年 9 月 28 日 主要结论 三季度纸浆期货先涨后跌，当前维持低位震荡。 进口方面，据中华人民共和国海关总署数据显示，我国 2025 年 8 月份针叶 浆进口量 61.39 万吨，环比减少 5.01%，同比下滑 10.12%；1-8 月针叶浆累计进 口量 574.05 万吨，同比增加 1.43%。阔叶浆方面，8 月阔叶浆进口量 125.77 万 吨，环比减少 6.92%，同比下滑 1.43%；1-8 月累计进口量 1115.21 万吨，同比 增加 10.71%。整体来看，进口量表现平缓，补充国内木浆供应。 国信期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】116 号 港口库存方面，国内纸浆港口库存前期创新高后逐渐转降。据卓创资讯数据 监测显示，保定地区、天津港、日照港、青岛港、常熟港、上海港、高栏港及南 沙港等中国主要地区及港口周度纸浆库存量 198.96 万吨，周度环比下跌 4.49%， 由涨转跌。 据 UTIPULP 数据显示，2025 年 8 月欧洲化学纸浆消费量 70.08 万吨， 同比上升 2.35%；欧洲化学纸浆 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating was provided in the report [1][3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pulp futures have reached an absolute low, but there is no upward driving force at present. It is recommended to wait and see [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: Neutral. Suzano announced price increases in September 2025, with a $20/ton increase in Asia and an $80/ton increase in Europe and the United States. Chile's Arauco Company's September quotations showed a $20/ton increase in the price of broadleaf pulp Star, while the foreign quotation of softwood pulp decreased [3]. - **Demand**: Bearish. Currently, there has been no significant increase in the production and price of wood pulp paper. The "Golden September and Silver October" peak season has not led to a reduction in pulp inventory, and overall demand remains weak [3]. - **Inventory**: Bearish. As of September 18, 2025, the inventory of mainstream Chinese pulp ports was 2112,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 50,000 tons or 2.4%. Pulp port inventory remains at a high level [3]. - **Valuation**: Bullish. The basis of broadleaf pulp has strengthened to above - 1000 yuan, and pulp futures have entered a low - valuation range [3]. - **Investment View**: Wait and see. Although pulp futures have reached an absolute low, there is no upward driving force [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Not provided. Attention should be paid to the de - stocking of pulp warehouse receipts [3]. 3.2 Review of Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures Market**: Last week, pulp futures fluctuated at a low level. After hitting a low, they rebounded slightly, but the high inventory still reflects that the supply - demand situation has not improved significantly. After the delivery of the 09 contract, there was no cancellation of warehouse receipts, and there was no short - term bullish driving force [6]. - **Spot Market**: The price of broadleaf pulp increased, while the price of softwood pulp remained stable. The price of softwood pulp Silver Star was 5620 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week and down 150 yuan/ton month - on - month. The price of softwood pulp Buzhen was 4960 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton week - on - week and up 50 yuan/ton month - on - month. The price of broadleaf pulp Jinyu was 4200 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton week - on - week and up 70 yuan/ton month - on - month [13]. - **Foreign Quotations**: In September, the price of broadleaf pulp increased, while the foreign quotation of softwood pulp decreased. Chile's Arauco's September quotation for softwood pulp Silver Star was $700/ton, and the quotation for broadleaf pulp Star was $540/ton, up $20/ton [16]. - **Position**: The total position of pulp futures decreased. As of September 19, 2025, the total position of pulp futures contracts was 33,869 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 7.65%. The position of the main contract was 166,419 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 11.36% [18] 3.3 Pulp Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **Import Volume**: In July, the import volume of pulp decreased. The total import volume of pulp was 2.877 million tons, a decrease of 5.08% compared with the previous period. The import volume of softwood pulp was 646,000 tons, a decrease of 4.72%, and the import volume of broadleaf pulp was 1.351 million tons, a decrease of 5.85% [4]. - **Inventory**: Pulp port inventory increased, and the number of warehouse receipts remained stable. As of September 18, 2025, China's port pulp inventory was 2.112 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.4%. Overseas pulp mill inventory also increased, with the inventory of 20 major global commodity pulp suppliers at 47 days at the end of July [3][38]. - **Downstream Demand**: - **Price**: As of September 19, 2025, the price of offset paper was 4800 yuan/ton, down 3.03% month - on - month; the price of coated paper was 4980 yuan/ton, down 3.3% month - on - month; the price of tissue paper was 5583 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month; the price of white cardboard was 3969 yuan/ton, up 0.1% month - on - month [42]. - **Production Volume**: In August 2025, the production volume of offset paper was 724,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 9.4%; the production volume of coated paper was 375,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.7% and a year - on - year increase of 2.2%; the production volume of tissue paper was 840,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.8% and a year - on - year increase of 13.5%; the production volume of white cardboard was 958,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.4% [48]. - **Inventory**: As of August 2025, the inventory of offset paper was 1.76 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.8% and a year - on - year increase of 6.8%; the inventory of coated paper was 1.182 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.34% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.5%; the inventory of tissue paper was 355,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.9% and a year - on - year increase of 8.23%; the inventory of white cardboard was 2.2899 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 5% [56]. 3.4 Pulp Futures Valuation - **Basis**: As of September 19, 2025, the basis of Shandong Russian Needle was - 58 yuan/ton, a decrease of 18 yuan/ton compared with the previous week; the basis of Shandong Silver Star was 602 yuan/ton, a decrease of 28 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [85]. - **Spread**: As of September 19, 2025, the 11 - 1 spread of pulp was - 298 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [85]. - **Import Profit**: As of September 19, 2025, the import profit of softwood pulp was - 26 yuan/ton, an increase of 151 yuan/ton compared with the previous week; the import profit of broadleaf pulp was - 9.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 34 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [88]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, pulp prices fluctuated within a range with reduced volatility. The near - term contradictions are not prominent. The relatively weak fundamentals have been priced in, and there are no new negative factors. Although the output of finished paper has increased, the upward driving force is still insufficient, and the market is expected to fluctuate. The Fed's interest rate cut has certain positive factors for long - term prices [1]. - In the near - term, the weak reality corresponds to weak prices. Port inventories are at a high level and de - stocking is not smooth. The prices of needle pulp and broadleaf pulp are restricted, but the impact of the Bu - needle warehouse receipt will weaken after the delivery of the 09 contract. In the long - term, the Fed's interest rate cut is beneficial to commodities, and the valuation of the 01 contract will increase, but there is no significant upward driving force for now [1][2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - **Fundamentals**: The fundamentals are relatively weak, with Bu - needle warehouse receipt pressure, high inventory and poor de - stocking, and the so - called "peak season is not prosperous". However, these factors have been priced in, and there are no new negative factors. The output of finished paper has increased this week, showing some improvement [1]. - **Macroeconomics**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points to the 4.00% - 4.25% range in September, which is the first rate cut since December 2024. This is due to slow employment growth and rising unemployment. It has certain positive factors for long - term prices [1]. 1.2 Trading - type Strategy Recommendations - **Futures**: It is recommended to wait and see, as the current market is in a state of range - bound fluctuations with limited bottom space and insufficient upward driving force, and the trading opportunities are not significant [5]. - **Options**: Consider selling near - month out - of - the - money call options and selling far - month out - of - the - money put options [5]. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high needle pulp inventory worried about price drops, they can short pulp futures to lock in profits, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an entry range of 5200 - 5300 [8]. - **Procurement Management**: For papermaking enterprises with low inventory and planning to purchase according to orders, they can buy pulp futures to lock in procurement costs in advance, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an entry range of 4900 - 5000 [8]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Concerns 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: The US exempted pulp from the 50% tariff on Brazilian goods in July 2025 and further cancelled tariffs on most Brazilian pulp exports in September, reducing the export cost of Brazilian broadleaf pulp to the US and increasing the proportion of exports to the US [8]. - **Negative Information**: Since September, the pulp market has been sluggish, lacking the consumption support of the so - called "Golden September and Silver October" peak season [9]. - **Spot Transaction Information**: The report provides the latest prices, price changes, and other information of various pulp futures contracts and domestic spot pulp and finished paper [10][13]. Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Single - side Trend and Capital Movement**: Last week, the sp2511 contract fluctuated with a small range, and the weekly position decreased by 21,328 lots [15]. - **Basis and Spread Structure**: The spread structure remains in a C - structure and has strengthened, indicating some improvement in long - term expectations [18]. Chapter 4: Supply, Demand, and Inventory - **Inventory**: As of September 18, the inventory was 2.122 million tons, an increase of 60,000 tons, ending two weeks of de - stocking and turning to inventory accumulation. High - level inventory is difficult to reduce, and high shipments and high inventory restrict the upward elasticity of pulp prices [20]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply pressure is still large, while the demand has slightly improved, and there is a certain degree of differentiation in finished paper. The output of most finished paper has increased, but the production profit of downstream enterprises has not improved [20].